The most prescient Hacker News commenters, ranked by their average grade across all analyzed threads.
Grades are assigned by an LLM evaluating how well each comment predicted the future with 10 years of hindsight.
"clear-eyed about Go’s runtime complexity, Rust’s tooling advantages, and the non–horse-race nature of Go vs Rust; good functional-abstraction performance example"
"excellent historical and technical analysis of managed vs unmanaged languages and library ecosystems; prediction that multiple specialized languages would coexist has been strongly vindicated."
"correct that richer type-system machinery could express data structures like doubly-linked lists, but that it’s questionable whether it’s worth the complexity; Rust still hasn’t taken that route"
"fundamentally right about relative memory safety of JS vs C++; slightly overconfident with “never been done” phrasing about server-side JS engine exploits"
"accurate technical description of WebAssembly being designed to run within JS engines and leveraging their JITs; aligned with how Wasm actually evolved"
"right to emphasize the importance of UB for C performance and that C is the wrong place to try to eliminate it; might underplay later success of safer systems languages"
"excellent technical explanation of how accredited rules actually work and a very accurate take on the limited wealth-building value of angel-style investing for non‑rich people"
"accurately situates the work in prior art, notes that blind spoofing is mostly academic and that RPF is less universal than some claim; still correct in 2025"
"captures DF’s nature as deliberately unforgiving, where “don’t do X or it crashes” is just another learned rule; this remained true until the Premium UI made the on‑ramp gentler"
"accurate reading of the bill, correctly downplayed Techdirt’s more alarmist claims, and right that CISA’s real‑world impact would be incremental rather than transformative"
"clear-eyed about terminology issues and CTF structure; correct that CTF-like framing matters; also candid later in life about why the business didn’t work"
"solid long‑view commentary about city restaurant cultures; not strongly testable, but his framing of “peak vs median” quality matches how NYC/Chicago/LA scenes have since been talked about"
"likely right that the evidentiary case is strong, but the implied “dead to rights → straightforward conviction” hasn’t materialized because a decade later there is still no US trial"
"clear, accurate description of SourceForge’s “seizing” behavior and its implications, exemplified by GIMP; prescient about the reputational collapse of SF"
"accurate and technically detailed on Telegram’s plaintext storage, WhatsApp vs Signal security, and the broader implications of server‑side histories"
"clear explanation that compressing encrypted data better would imply breaking the cipher; prediction that AES will remain safe for decades has been borne out so far"
"excellent analysis of alternatives to Free Basics, who actually pays for data, and the colonial dynamic; predictions match India’s later policy and market evolution"
"nuanced defense of experiments and Pocket’s rationale; slightly underestimates how much the fast-tracking and bundling would damage trust, but broadly aligned with what we now know"
"excellent, detailed anticipation of resident compilers, fine-grained dependencies, incremental compilation, and automated test reruns—very close to modern practice"
"correctly judged that Comcast’s “managed IP lane” was more like on‑demand cable than a general plan to replace the open internet, which is how it played out"
"excellent, durable explanations of asymptotics, D‑Wave’s specialization, BQP vs classical, and why scaling qubits alone is unlikely to change the picture"
"highlights Facebook’s lobbying/astroturf campaign and points to “rogue social network” concerns; both proved highly relevant in the years that followed"
"promoted savetheinternet.in and correctly treated this as a broad differential‑pricing/net‑neutrality fight, not just about one product; that framing matched TRAI’s eventual regulations"
"very accurate big-picture call that the standard would remain conservative and many popular extensions would stay as such; essentially described how Haskell evolved"
"clear, technically accurate explanation of initial vs final encodings; correctly anticipates the move toward mtl/tagless-final over heavy Free/Prism/Inject machinery"
"correctly framed proofs as targeted, composable tools rather than something you apply to entire programs; realistic about Coq’s impact on day-to-day programming."
"good explanation of Elm’s static record semantics and optimization potential, which partly materialized, and an accurate comparison to Closure Compiler"
"very accurate use of IO‑psych research that later guided big‑company practices: work samples + validated cognitive tests; correctly flags legal considerations"
"clearly identifies early California regulatory restrictions as a barrier to Google’s robotaxi ambitions, which is precisely how the story played out for much of the decade."
"right about candidate-gene failures and the complexity of gene–environment interplay; too quick to dismiss Hsu’s blog as scientifically unserious given how much of his broad genomic-prediction picture has since been borne out"
"nailed real pain points, built a solid tool, and anticipated the need for a static CMS with a GUI; but underestimated existing/coming competition in that space and stuck with Python 2 longer than hindsight would recommend"
"accurate short‑term observation that Cavium was still making MIPS64 and realistically noting uncertainty about continuation, which is what happened as they later pivoted toward ARM"
"historically right about Sesame Street’s mission and the need to push kids just beyond their comfort zone; somewhat overstated that Elmo dominance means they’ve “lost sight” of that mission"
"accurately converged on Hailstorm relying on downgrades/jamming rather than magical 3G/4G crypto breaks; good technical reasoning and humility about what’s unknown"
"very prescient distinction between well-defined success in disease/poverty reduction vs. fuzzy and contested goals in “fixing schools,” which closely matches how CZI’s science vs. education work has played out"
"warning about insane numbers of transitive deps and preferring fewer deps looks very wise in the era of left-pad/event-stream and supply-chain concerns"
"strong moderation, clear explanation of constraints and intentions around the AMA format; not making predictions, but notably good meta‑analysis of the thread itself"
"good distinction between “intelligence as goal‑achievement” and social perceptions; correctly argues that very smart agents can wield outsized power, and that it’s right to be afraid"
"accurate description of the meta-optimization problem and a lasting concern about theory vs practice; resonates with later worries about benchmark overfitting"
"highlighted ancient “robots” and automation in the *Iliad*, an angle that has since become popular in discussions of proto‑SF and ancient technology myths."
"overstated but directionally correct about YouTube’s commercialization, ad-chasing, and the burying of small amateurs under optimized “creator” content"
"clear, technically and politically accurate statement that secure global key escrow isn’t possible; strongly validated by a decade of failed proposals"
"identifying Craft CMS and Perch Runway as strong, flexible field‑type CMSs was correct; Craft in particular became a major commercial CMS; Perch, less so"
"clear articulation that regulation is mainly to protect vulnerable, not the savvy – which mirrors how gambling/loan and now loot‑box policies are justified"
"right that digital distribution reduced labels’ historical logistics role; but underestimated how durable and valuable labels remain as PR/playlist/financing machines in the streaming era"
"very clear, technically accurate analysis of dynamic analysis limits and why sandboxes/appliances cannot reliably catch every such attack; aged extremely well"
"accurately highlighted how identity and institutions matter for history, search, clinical-trial transparency, and why the proposed citation scheme was flawed"
"most structurally insightful comment: recognizes that normalizing zero‑rating forces every innovator to cut deals with ISPs, subverting the Internet’s permissionless model; exactly in line with later regulatory and academic consensus"
"very clear on the structural risks of zero‑rating and on the need for general NN rules; correct about regulators treating this as a broader pricing issue, though some “no turning back” rhetoric was stronger than what we’ve actually seen"
"consistently realistic on recursive descent dominance, parser generator limits in big compilers, and maintenance issues with many IR dialects; these concerns remain very relevant"
"clear, correct explanation that downloading was legal if Springer was authorized to distribute; distinguished initial download rights from later copying"
"accurate and unusually clear-eyed assessment of Yudkowsky/rationalist culture and solid explanations of what philosophy and feminist epistemology are actually doing"
"accurate legal framing of Oracle v Google’s limited broader impact; correctly saw adoption of OpenJDK as an available and sensible path; nuanced, mostly borne out by events"
"labels AI‑risk concerns a “religious apocalypse” and claims “super‑intelligent people are terrible at solving problems involving other humans”; both empirical claims about intelligence/power and the complacency about AI risk look weak in retrospect"
"remarkably prescient about TS’s role as a standards-aligned superset, the importance of compile-to-JS, optional types influencing JS, and WebAssembly as a complement not replacement"
"excellent combination of practical advice on the sort-key trick and a highly accurate sociotechnical prediction about deployment friction and niche tools; aged extremely well"
"notes that Android had already shifted from Dalvik JIT to ART’s more AOT‑ish model, and implicitly that AOT Java isn’t “just an interpreter”; this lines up with later Java AOT and native‑image work."
"good, focused questions on performance impact and possibility of a microcode fix; those questions captured the right long-term concerns even though answers remained largely “software workaround only”"
"central insight—that you must ultimately trust the device you hold, and that TPM+sealed storage already gets you most of what the stateless laptop promises—matches where mainstream secure platforms actually went"
"right that bad working conditions and narrow cultural norms hurt everyone but especially minorities; prescient about focusing on inclusion, not just sexism as such"
"accurate about how hard it is to convince skeptics with words alone, and likely correct that Google didn’t provide “open‑ended NSA access”; but underestimates the structural trust problem that later events made painfully clear"
"accurate stats on bug closure, but underestimates how much lack of feedback harms user trust; the “we don’t tell you what happened” stance aged poorly"
"correctly identified Rust as the realistic path to escape-C-for-new-code and framed the problem as “fix C vs new language,” which is how things played out"
"vision of a blogging platform that periodically scrapes and archives outbound links is exactly in line with later tools and plugins, even if no single “perfect platform” dominates"
"prescient about PM and tech lead needing to be peers jointly responsible for the conceptual model; that is now an explicit pattern in many product orgs"
"advocating buying laptops with accessible service manuals and easily replaced parts; that strategy aged very well in a world of increasingly sealed ultrabooks"
"accurate about dependence on external aid and multi‑decade consequences of childhood lead exposure; somewhat overstated “no money anywhere” but directionally right"
"argued that buying Netflix would be a bad idea because other content owners would flee—essentially what *happened* when Disney later pulled its own catalog and others built rival services instead of consolidating under one"
"right that you can’t paralyze yourself waiting for peer‑reviewed studies for every classroom decision, but his strong enthusiasm for tau’s practical teaching benefits did not translate into any visible shift in curricula or broad adoption."
"right about the long‑term risk of closed messaging silos and platform power; wrong insofar as he implied there wasn’t much new value vs IRC — UX and integrations clearly mattered"
"very strong analysis of why simple price signals are insufficient, and how online information, modifiability, and long‑term ownership logistics would matter more over time"
"accurately anticipated how generalized reputation systems can drift toward Chinese‑style “social credit” concerns; prescient in light of 2018‑onward debates"
"ahead of the curve on pedagogy, nonviolence, respect for children, risk in one‑on‑one teaching, and realistic but positive expectations of El Sistema‑style programs"
"forceful, concrete argument that engineers have a professional duty to fix security/ops WTFs, not just “raise once and forget”; matches post‑breach/AI‑ethics expectations"
"accurately highlights that much of CS cares deeply about performance and that Haskell’s laziness/immutability/pointer model are awkward for many algorithmic domains; right that Curry–Howard ideas have had limited impact on mainstream AI/graphics/crypto"
"very clear explanation of how C behaves like hardware at the spec level and why C‑implemented emulators can fail to realize the full power of TC languages they target"
"lucid corrections and context on naming in OpenGL, NUL vs NULL, and Android’s “is user a goat/monkey” gag; demonstrates how much subtle conceptual baggage lives in names and APIs"
"very insightful about apt’s string and cache issues and correctly identified big optimization opportunities; but his strong prescription about cumulative diffs for Debian didn’t age well, and his pessimism about upstream maintainability was partly disproven."
"correct on OEM/GPL dynamics and Android’s avoidance of GPL userland; legal prediction that lack of strict compatibility sunk fair use was ultimately rejected by SCOTUS"
"sharp explanation that entropy is the “perfect” measure given a model, Kolmogorov complexity is fundamentally limited in practice, and that compression is mathematically well-understood; this stance holds up well against the next decade"
"nuanced and historically grounded critique of “science always wins” and of perverse incentives; “fail extravagantly and retire rich” captured what many founders took from Theranos"
"contextualized that serious isolation and paranoia around critical systems has been good practice since long before this incident; historically accurate"
"very clear grasp of source-repo subversion as a realistic attack vector; essentially predicted the style of compromise both here and in later supply-chain incidents"
"speculative idea about augmenting BWT with extra structure/FSM; no notable realization of that idea, but directionally compatible with later ANS + modeling work"
"right that Russia/USSR tattoo culture is unusually formalized, but the implication of current, system‑wide consistency is overstated in light of later evidence"
"right that telecom/chip players actually read patents and that execution/productization matters more than being “first”; only partly right that Apple would gain Ericsson‑like leverage via standards/modems"
"insists that extremists see themselves as moral and that religion’s epistemology matters; overall aligned with later extremism research, though somewhat overconfident about “scientific morality”"
"good instinct that modern information infrastructure should enable better replication and collaborative vetting, matching later open-science directions"
"clearly articulated the need for checksummed filesystems before they were common; exactly validated by ZFS/btrfs/APFS adoption and real-world corruption findings"
"realistic about DRM and market forces; right that refusing EME would have been suicidal, less right in downplaying revenue/optics issues around Pocket"
"accurately emphasizes drought vulnerability and ecological damage from dams; some generalizations on dam lifetimes are a bit sweeping but directionally sound"
"clear, accurate explanation of capabilities vs RBAC, secret URLs as weak capabilities, UX implications; all aged very well and aligns with later systems like Fuchsia/WASI."
"technically on point about Slack’s security incident and Sandstorm’s goals; but Sandstorm didn’t become the set‑and‑forget mainstream alternative he implicitly envisioned"
"zeroed in on firmware attacks and NSA-like adversaries, and related the work to prior talks on “why Johnny can’t tell if he’s compromised”; this aged very well"
"correctly notes the number is smaller than early RSA challenges and points to GNFS and implementations; exactly aligned with how such problems are still approached."
"accurate and forward‑looking view of game design as incentive-system design broadly applicable beyond games; matches the rise of behavioral/product design roles"
"shrewd read that the letter was also aimed at other billionaires, trying to norm‑shift them toward philanthropy; hard to prove causality, but the broader billionaire‑pledge culture did strengthen"
"forward‑looking question about using vitrification for human tissue preservation; still speculative, but conceptually in line with ongoing research into dry preservation"
"attempt to distinguish Apple’s iAd model as privacy‑friendlier; in practice iAd was short‑lived and Apple’s real privacy impact came via OS‑level tracking restrictions, not a central ad platform"
"identifies a real issue—higher BT latency on iOS—but speculates without evidence; later work did show mobile OSes often trade latency for battery, but the comment is anecdotal/partial"
"strongly anticipates the next decade’s discourse linking neoliberalism, male alienation, and toxic masculinity, even if one empirical claim he cites is strictly wrong"
"captures the “wild west of consumer chemicals” idea; more sociological than predictive, but the sentiment that we’re safer with toxins confined to devices rather than garages aged reasonably well"
"joke about the number of “Wolfram” mentions; not predictive, but accurately captures the self‑branding tone that still characterizes Wolfram’s writing"
"plausible interpretation that Zimbabwean policymakers were tying their own hands to restore confidence; not fully borne out, but consistent with how the move functioned symbolically"
"licensing preference for MIT/BSD over LGPL/GPL remains a common stance; Qt’s licensing has remained a practical concern, though many commercial projects still use it successfully"
"very clear and historically accurate characterization of Channel One News as an ad-delivery vehicle; strongly supported by later critiques and its eventual demise"
"correct that in the US/EU, the low price of fast fashion makes routine garment repair economically marginal; this remains a big structural barrier to scaling repair"
"realistic about where the real difficulty lies and about the limited practical success of semantic web in bio, though slightly too categorical about “every” semantic web project failing"
"clear-eyed about workflow limitations on mobile and Csound’s strength as a batch/desktop tool; real-time artifact issues were a real and lasting concern"
"fragmentation critique and “300+ distros is too many” still apply, though consolidation around a handful of majors somewhat mitigated the practical impact."
"right about human ingenuity and capitalism driving big improvements, especially in global poverty; somewhat underestimates climate and inequality risks"
"correctly emphasized that ubiquitous encryption plus legal reform are both needed, and that tech-by-default would most effectively blunt mass surveillance"
"accurate identification of the remote‑UI trust problem and realistic assessment of self‑hosting complexity; concerns remained valid even if never exploited publicly"
"right that the real move was toward elliptic curves rather than ever-larger RSA, and that OpenPGP’s slow ECC standardization was a practical blocker at the time."
"right that IdP‑leased identity is structurally problematic and that true user‑owned identity wasn’t solved; but no practical alternative emerged in the decade"
"nicely separated gameplay variety vs. level abstraction, and the wish for D1 layouts reimagined with D2’s roster is basically what many later projects/megwads did in spirit"
"created a long-lived, widely-used tutorial series that still serves as a solid intro to interpreters, even if it uses a simplistic expression parser early on"
"not in the comments, but as the submitter, helped feed a stream of PL resources that in hindsight looks like a meaningful part of a larger PL-education wave"
"good pointers to GNU CLI standards; correct characterization of Boost.Program_options and forward-looking thoughts about discoverable web service help"
"technically correct clarifications about how real exchanges handle FIX sessions/opening; those details still hold up and show why the article’s “performance vs. login security” tradeoff is simplified"
"explained why exchanges charge heavily for fine‑grained data and why successful traders prefer high barriers; this economic logic continues to describe the market well"
"correctly highlights how difficult it is for U.S. citizens to get standing to challenge domestic use of foreign‑intel tools; this remained a central legal obstacle"
"accurately articulated the central structural danger of “national security” as a shield from constitutional scrutiny, which is exactly how Jewel and similar cases played out"
"right that municipal fiber/open access utilities are an excellent structural solution and that incumbents lobbied hard to stop them; that remains central to the policy debate"
"very accurate, structural explanation of why egress filtering remains incomplete—a tragedy of the commons—and prediction that spoof-friendly connectivity would remain easy to obtain"
"solid grasp of Jevons paradox and a very clear conceptual carbon‑tax/clean‑energy‑subsidy “cross‑subsidy” mechanism that resembles later policy debates"
"right to question the “must be thinner” excuse—technically you *can* make robust, repairable phones; overestimated the size of the market that would actually prioritize that over sleekness, which proved much smaller than hoped"
"correctly focused on credibility constraints and pointed out that once a currency is dead in practice, the supposed policy flexibility of sovereignty is minimal"
"theoretical note that weakening social safety nets can push fertility up is plausible, but Japan has not gone far down that path yet; not clearly right or wrong so far"
"early, vivid warnings about the psychological and quasi‑religious aspects of the rationalist/singularity milieu; perhaps somewhat overgeneral, but later events vindicate much of the concern"
"excellent and largely accurate predictions about alternative creator funding, correct invocation of legal principles, and realistic expectations about business‑model shifts"
"excellent, deeply prescient articulation of why modern surveillance is fundamentally different—“too cheap to meter,” analytics, scale, and institutional consequences"
"strong, if somewhat absolutist, argument against electronic voting; overshoots a bit but directionally aligned with later consensus against unauditable or online voting"
"solid explanation of privacy as modern “liberty,” good citation of Riley v. California and Jacob Appelbaum; less about prediction, more about sound principles"
"right that many sites don’t *need* JS and that analytics miss JS‑off users; underestimates how thoroughly JS apps would dominate, but conceptually sound"
"correctly identified DOM/reflow as the Achilles’ heel for SVG as an animation/game platform; history has borne that out, with Canvas/WebGL taking the high‑performance animation niche"
"ethically consistent defense of GPL, but underestimates just how strongly industry would converge on permissive licenses and non-OSS “source-available” responses"
"correctly defends the validity of the question, points to Word2Vec and autoencoders, and gives a solid intuitive prediction of composite hallucinations from a richer dataset"
"highlighted seq2seq and an LSTM+Attention QA model that slightly outperforms CNNs, aligning with the later dominance of attention-based architectures"
"strong technical understanding of Freebase vs Knowledge Graph vs Knowledge Vault; correctly framed statement vs resource counts and foresaw the practical importance of typed KG APIs"
"good clarification that the relevant workloads were already in native/HPC libraries and that storage interfaces like NVMe would often matter more in practice"
"properly explains the breadth of OCP designs and that they are more than a parts list; slightly optimistic about the openness implications but largely sound"
"accurately relayed Ghahramani’s desire to show non‑deep methods can match deep nets on ImageNet; that never really happened, underscoring how dominant deep methods stayed, but this is more reportage than prediction"
"excellent diagnosis of Windows Phone’s app-gap and chicken-and-egg dynamics; right that universal apps wouldn’t fix it, though Android-compatibility as a cure is unproven"
"right that GC doesn’t belong at the *lowest* Wasm layer if you want maximal control, but wrong to generalize that GC is something “professional game developers” categorically don’t want; industry use of GC-backed engines and Wasm GC evolution undercut the claim"
"excellent, detailed, and enduringly accurate explanation of how DeepDream works and how mid‑level representations would behave on broader data; most prescient in the thread"
"good Tu‑95–B‑52 comparison and observation about Soviet iterative airframe replacement; slightly underestimates how far B‑52 life would be stretched with upgrades"
"right that an honest “Software Development Has Diseconomies of Scale” title would be less clicky—but that mismatch of framing vs content is exactly what triggered the productive debate."
"nuanced take that Dragon Book is over‑theoretical on parsing and outdated on backend; right directionally, maybe slightly harsh on its ongoing reference value"
"accurate critique of Emacs’ highlighting architecture; later developments like tree-sitter confirm the need for more structured, efficient approaches"
"correctly skeptical about self‑driving timelines and clear that autonomous cars wouldn’t eliminate the need for transit or solve capacity constraints"
"accurately frames YouTube/online content as an ultra‑low barrier field where fans expect free access and creators are easily replaced—very much how the creator economy has unfolded"
"Blade Runner–style multi‑angle photo exploration and NFL multi‑camera blending are broadly on target; slightly overstates our ability to “look behind” occluders from minimal views"
"using Monte Carlo for personal finance and mortgages remains a strong use case; the “this would be handy” intuition is validated by how EA/finance folks now use Guesstimate-like tools."
"balanced, still-current view: pointless/status meetings are toxic, design/problem-solving meetings are essential, and meeting value should be measured by concrete outcomes"
"produced a clear, accurate explainer that aged well as an intro; series itself doesn’t dive into long-term predictions, but the framing of Tor’s goals and tradeoffs held up"
"good call on ThinkPads/Lenovo for repairability and part availability; right that this would remain a differentiator, though Lenovo’s security missteps slightly complicate the picture"
"solid grasp of VC control dynamics and realistic early-career job-hopping strategy; job-market optimism aged well for the 2010s but less so post-2022"
"critique of Unix’s “pissweak type system” around text pipelines aged well; we’ve since seen a big move to structured, typed IPC—but Unix text pipelines remain deeply entrenched"
"legitimate point about overusing full Linux SBCs for trivial tasks; prediction that people would “not learn the basics” is partly true in web-dev circles but countered by the huge growth of MCU/RTOS hobbyism"
"excellent counterbalance: highlights real social stigma and material constraints; insists that money, relationships, and status really do solve many problems, which is borne out by almost every socioeconomic health gradient we’ve studied since"
"spot-on critique of out-of-touch PV advocacy; insightful comment about aspirations toward LPG/propane, matching later research on the energy ladder and adoption"
"slightly overstates the exact risk ratio, but broadly right about GA being much more dangerous than driving and that regulators would not bless a private‑pilot Uber"
"insider view of adtech dysfunction—heavy tags, trust issues, poor standards—that has been repeatedly confirmed; slightly over-optimistic about “better future very soon” via his own projects"
"good practical warning about .01 releases being unstable and recommendation to stick to 0.40.24 at the time—borne out by crash reports in the same thread"
"accurately wary of Facebook’s role and its long-term impact on the web; proved right both about FB’s trajectory and the desirability of not tying services to it"
"right that visual systems can feel better, but too quick to separate that from learning‑styles debunking; personal preference ≠ distinct cognitive type"
"good clarification on TypeScript’s limitations vs fully-typed languages and the analogy to FFI; understanding of the long-term nature of those tradeoffs aged well"
"recommended building an email client as an educational exercise, noting that basic functionality is easy but edge cases are brutal; that’s exactly what countless side projects and experiments since have shown."
"nailed the non–D–T, non-power-plant nature of W7‑X and the true ~€1B scale of the project; good explanation of why it’s cheaper and easier to operate than an energy-producing reactor"
"Accurately captures that devs mostly see ASN.1 in certs and as a source of security bugs; the ecosystem never delivered a “default” open-source ASN.1 stack for general use."
"correctly interprets “team chats and emails” as public/group channels and CC’d mail — exactly how contemporary managers operate. Good clarification that aged well."
"correct that WordPress would keep its old PHP 4/5 architecture for years and that PHP 7 compatibility would be mostly fine; the “entirely rewritten in JS” part hasn’t fully materialized"
"personal capacitor anecdote that reinforces a lesson still valid today: even camera‑flash caps are serious; no real prediction but good alignment with reality"
"adds useful historical context about interwar eugenic anxieties and notes the judge may simply have been wrong; broadly historically and logically reasonable"
"on-point call for a React CLI akin to ember-cli; this is essentially what create-react-app and Next.js CLI became; minor ding for “it’s just React, not JS”"
"rightly skeptical of “sitting is the new smoking” equivalence and of extreme volumes; perhaps slightly overplays how easy it is to fit in 4–6 hours/day, but directionally reasonable"
"pushed back on “plaintext = amateur” and emphasized the practical success of this simple backdoor surviving years of review, matching later assessments"
"government-owned last-mile + open access is a solid model used successfully in some places, but it didn’t become US policy; more a good proposal than a realized prediction"
"clear, correct explanation of why std::sort doesn’t work on std::list due to iterator requirements; that line of reasoning is still how we teach this today"
"exaggerated rhetoric, but broadly right about the trend toward using companies as control points and about the risk of normalizing mass surveillance post‑Snowden"
"accurate back‑of‑the‑envelope fuel consumption and a pragmatic stance on why simple generators beat small‑scale renewables for this kind of installation—still true a decade later"
"rightly points out that *The Forever War* is really about relativistic time dilation more than black‑hole travel; good correction of the ASP blurb’s emphasis"
"solid insider view that canceling can be cheaper than shipping a dud; more process than prediction, but aligns with many later hardware cancellations"
"the article captured the early HTTP/2 tooling ecosystem well, and the follow-up to add learning resources aligned with how the ecosystem actually evolved"
"accurate on implementation details and genuinely trying to bridge security and global access; but Cloudflare’s SHA‑1‑fallback and LV‑cert vision ended up being a short‑term detour rather than the industry’s long‑term path"
"clear, general statement that any backdoor will become a backdoor for “everybody and his dog,” strongly validated by both Juniper’s fate and later events like Shadow Brokers/WannaCry"
"notes that people will “outgame the game” and that corporate psychological tricks have limits; borne out by many failed or gamed gamification schemes, though not a strong predictive claim"
"explicitly suggests the “respect robots at crawl time, but don’t retroactively delete archives” policy that the Internet Archive later converged toward."
"good articulation of instrumental convergence, paperclip-style value misalignment, and why boxing is brittle; “no plausible scenario” lines are strong but not yet falsified"
"nice idea about suggesting alternate access paths, but the claim that “your jurisdiction forbids it but ours doesn’t” would be rare turned out wrong in a GDPR/DMCA world"
"clear, now-standard critique of Monopoly’s design: player elimination, house rules extending playtime, and the existence of better family games; recommendations like Carcassonne/Ticket to Ride aged well"
"spot‑on about public misunderstanding of percentages and the need for absolute numbers; correct that suicide is a leading perinatal killer outside the US"
"clearly and correctly explained that illegal income is taxable and that IRS involvement is natural; this was strongly validated by subsequent crypto enforcement"
"the claim that Google’s incentives push away from good bookmarking/history features remains plausible, and Chrome’s design choices since then have not contradicted this view."
"right that AVs will be heavily instrumented and record a lot; prediction of widespread automatic reporting/enforcement for aggressive driving hasn’t materialized yet"
"right that resistant infections are numerous, but clearly wrong that this implies a large, high-margin market rather than the near-zero-sales reality that followed"
"correctly identified this as UX/product design debt, noted the poor naming choice, and situated it relative to DDD and technical debt in a way that matches where the field went"
"strong, historically grounded predictions about ISP incentives, Netflix-style interconnection disputes, and the erosion of Columbia House’s value proposition"
"strong, forward-looking takes on generalist hiring and mentoring juniors; dinged slightly for the now-dated stance against salary transparency in mission-driven orgs"
"good logical critique of “surveillance for thee but not for me” and early recognition of how hyper‑partisan narratives distort debates about legitimacy"
"right that the lab experiment was extreme and that historical sleep wasn’t strictly 8 unbroken hours, but too dismissive; later evidence shows even mild fragmentation is meaningfully harmful"
"excellent, legally precise explanation of common carriage and why public cost‑sharing would be treated as compensation; exactly matched the court’s logic"
"inventive iptables/ipfw-based “poor man’s VPN” that prefigures more polished routing-based tunneling; superseded by easier tools but conceptually solid"
"flagging Hrabovsky & Susskind’s *The Theoretical Minimum* as a similar project was astute; that series indeed became one of the main modern on‑ramps to theoretical physics."
"asks the main forward‑looking question—what if it were trained on “everything?”—and suggests GoPro‑style continuous capture, which is conceptually close to modern egocentric datasets"
"interesting idea about engineered space‑faring cells; untestable so far but conceptually aligned with some serious proposals for robotic/biological seeding"
"strong focus on incentives, accurate description of systemic pressures, and notably prescient proposal of a grant lottery model later adopted in several systems"
"correct that OPEC fears cheap renewables and that declining capital costs make long‑horizon fossil assets vulnerable; the specific zero‑coupon‑bond buyout scheme hasn’t materialized, but the financial logic and stranded‑asset idea are on point."
"right that extra-fussy interviews don’t guarantee avoiding bad hires; somewhat idealistic about “just fire them” given real-world politics and risk aversion"
"right that, in theory, picking slightly better startups repeatedly can matter; but probably overestimates how many high‑EV “swings” a typical career gives you"
"correct that robotic missions often ride on public enthusiasm for human exploration; this remains true, though he didn’t venture specific predictions"
"right about FDA’s conservatism with healthy subjects, but “basically impossible” and “no new treatment stands a chance” for prevention in healthy people were overstatements; aging and primary‑prevention trials, while difficult, have gone forward"
"correctly characterized `user-scalable=no` as an “app‑y” move and wished for tighter coupling between OS accessibility settings and web content, which largely happened via dynamic type and related APIs"
"correctly skeptical about Cortana’s advantages over Google Now; recognized that Microsoft’s broader strategy was interesting even if this product wasn’t compelling"
"correct in practice about why subscription streaming won’t allow permanent downloads, and about the economic incentives for recurring revenue, though somewhat dismissive of legitimate user-interest in ownership"
"roughly right that Uber delayed IPO and was sensitive about revealing its regulatory/lobbying posture; the specific “so they don’t have to show lobbying” was partially undercut by standard disclosure rules"
"insisted that compatibility with the rest of the world is a non‑negotiable user requirement and expressed practical caution about MANAGESIEVE security; both points fit how email evolved."
"accurate description of ScreenOS’s broad deployment and why this was so unsettling for operators; correctly anticipated loss of trust in those devices"
"rightly calls out that many commenters misunderstood the specific novelty—this is Outlook’s direct ability to embed/unpack an EXE, not just a generic “EXE inside an Office file” trick"
"clear explanation of paper‑era data retention and how digital searchability changes norms, foreshadowing later debates about online police blotters and “right to be forgotten” dynamics"
"clearly articulates the importance of relevance ranking and corporate-structure nuance—issues that remained central to the product’s strengths and weaknesses"
"right that sqlmap was more widely used in security than in everyday dev shops; suggestion to integrate it into test suites is reasonable but remained niche"
"as submitter and quoter; helped frame the Mars-time question that became the most interesting long-term angle, though without making explicit predictions"
"good instincts about the appeal of Surface‑style hybrids for productivity and the limitations of 2015‑era iPadOS; underestimated how far Apple would later push iPad productivity"
"balanced discussion of Anaconda being great for onboarding but sometimes “too much” as a default; some specific pain points were transient bugs, but the general nuance aged well"
"good critique of sites that disable zoom for text‑centric content, and a forward‑looking suggestion that sites offer user control over font size/column width"
"accurate historical context on NIST, NSA, RSA, and Dual_EC, and a correct read on the political doublespeak around “Manhattan‑like projects” for exceptional access"
"correct and detailed about the privacy-preserving, client-side design of Tiles; that model remains a high-water mark for ethical ads even though it failed commercially"
"accurate explanation that ISP costs stem from peak capacity, not bytes, and that caps are mostly “because they can”; also correctly skeptical of ISP‑hosted speedtests as marketing"
"The “use Marshmallow and encode however you like” pattern became a core Python ecosystem approach; very in line with how many modern services are built."
"argues rules-based programming is more broadly useful and underused mainly due to learning cost; broadly in line with how it expanded in infra/policy, though “quite often” is still an overstatement for mainstream app dev"
"balanced view: notes similar basic expressiveness in C vs Python for bit ops, Python’s better error-handling ergonomics, and correctly concedes that C wins on speed by large margins—still true"
"right about the fabless/foundry relationship, but “Intel… always sells enough… to keep its fabs busy and profitable” aged poorly given Intel’s utilization and process struggles"
"correctly notes Spotify will charge what the market bears and that $10 is the likely sweet spot; also skeptical of copying cable-TV’s model, which has since been in secular decline"
"accurate that the intended audience is serious amateurs and cranks who disdain “the establishment”; that reading squares with how the guide has been perceived over time."
"technically accurate explanation of how Dual‑EC parameters could, in principle, be generated without a backdoor, and cautious about attribution; this is still correct, though in practice the backdoor theory won out"
"did concrete technical work diffing firmware and helping uncover the nature of the backdoors; not a prediction, but extremely valuable and validated contribution"
"nuanced view: WS as a powerful, lower‑level building block for certain real‑time and ordered‑message use cases; broadly in line with how WS is actually used"
"rightly downplayed “encryption as the new terrorist tool” and highlighted open propaganda on social media as the key vector; that diagnosis has only grown more accepted"
"asks for a “meh” postmortem and notes that failures from respected engineers are educational; indeed, Patrick later wrote the kind of reflective material they were hoping for"
"non‑prediction, but his preference for avoiding Windows for privacy/licensing lines up with a broader developer migration toward Linux/macOS for personal machines"
"accurate take that startup jackpots are rarer and more widely distributed than new grads think, and that BigCo comp for high performers can match them; matches subsequent decade"
"good insight that API design must be validated by diverse real programs or you end up with brittle “ice crystal” APIs, a lesson that proved true in many public API fiascos"
"retrofit‑kit vision for autonomy with cheap LIDAR didn’t pan out as a mainline path; most serious deployments are tightly integrated, purpose-built vehicles"
"correctly emphasized that tools, libraries, and community matter; right that Lisp’s ideas were absorbed elsewhere and CL did not become something “most developers reach for”"
"accurate that Swift brought many FP benefits in a more practical package for Apple’s ecosystem; neutral-to-moderate impact on Haskell’s overall trajectory"
"smart meta‑point that people tend to universalize idiosyncratic advice; this general skepticism looks ever more justified in the age of self‑help influencers"
"right that `strncpy`/`strncat` are poor choices and that this is an implementation bug, wrong in suggesting `SIZE_MAX` “violates preconditions” in a standards sense"
"accurate that filesystem/networking/threading/IPC/endianness can be substantial extra work, especially for more complex titles; somewhat over-generalized against the simpler games in question"
"nicely articulated the desire for robust ways to run untrusted code on the desktop; while Windows still doesn’t make this easy, the sentiment aligns with the rise of sandboxes/containers and mobile‑style models"
"UI critique of panel overload aged fine—modern IDEs generally moved toward cleaner, more editor‑centric layouts—but this was more taste than prediction"
"the list of weird bugs correctly portrays DF’s bug profile: rarely catastrophic save‑corruption, often bizarre emergent behavior—this characterization has stayed accurate"
"corrected the “Microsoft saved Apple with $150M” myth and pointed to more substantive parts of the 1997 deal; this has remained the historically accurate view"
"excellent articulation of technical debt as recurring interest on every change and of varying app lifecycles where “bankruptcy” is rational; matches modern “sunset vs refactor” thinking"
"intuition that self-defeating policies like this cast doubt on China “winning the 21st century” has some retrospective support as China’s overcontrol has visibly hurt parts of its tech sector and soft power, though the century is far from decided"
"excellent, detailed explanation of AIG’s effective worthlessness, systemic risk, and moral hazard; tightly aligned with later legal and policy consensus"
"strongly accurate predictions about landline decline, FiOS economics, and rural fiber unprofitability; ideology aside, described telco behavior realistically"
"correctly emphasized that SV can’t be ground zero for everything and that ND’s “space” is a real advantage; aligns well with how test activity decentralized"
"defends storytelling as integral to human cultures; supported by anthropology and cognitive science, though “better” than other species is philosophically loaded"
"good early articulation of programming/algorithm design as a profession with its own ethical stakes; directionally right, though still somewhat optimistic about ethics winning over corporate incentives"
"right that PoW provides strong decentralized security and that energy cost is tied to that; but cost/benefit and alternatives look more contested today than implied"
"good practical overview and tool recommendations; slightly marred by a loose complexity statement, but empirically and historically in the right ballpark."
"spot-on early emphasis on coordinated omission, accurate critique of popular tools’ measurement models, and a correct outline of how to implement a better one"
"the claim that learning to keep humans in space is worth the expense looks well supported by how heavily Artemis, Gateway, and commercial stations lean on ISS experience"
"right that the generics debate was well‑worn even in 2015; wrong in thinking the discussion was effectively settled—seven more years of argument later, generics landed."
"right that probabilistic modeling is powerful in low‑data settings, and right that brain‑inspired startups haven’t outperformed; but underestimates how far purely deep‑learning‑based systems would go"
"correctly pointed to Vega as the declarative grammar direction that later became widely adopted; also highlighted datalib/datavore, which anticipate Arquero and similar tools"
"flagged the issue of hedge funds exploiting cheap data; Tiingo ultimately introduced higher‑priced institutional tiers and licensing—essentially addressing this concern"
"very accurate critique of the article’s scope and emphasis; clearly articulated what a true “math of computer graphics” intro should cover, which matches how the field’s teaching materials evolved"
"immediately labeled police “criminals who did this” and urged a kind of crowdsourced prosecution before facts; understandable emotion, but later facts did not support his implied homicide narrative"
"treating equity as a “buyout bonus” is a conservative framing that matches how many employees later reported thinking about it; a bit too dismissive of actively optimizing it"
"ad revenue math per kiosk was reasonable, but implicitly accepts the feasibility of the city’s projection; actual performance missed those targets significantly"
"on-point about compartmentalization/sandboxing and economics of rewrites; slightly underestimates how far Rust would get by 2025, but his hybrid strategy is exactly what we see"
"correctly identifies laziness, not currying, as key to Haskell’s style; clear separation of syntax vs semantics in the homoiconicity/variadicity argument"
"accurate about rustup unification, MIR/HIR roadmap, `?` landing behind a feature gate, and the importance of `cargo check`; slightly optimistic timeline on incremental compilation keeps this from A+"
"repeatedly grounded the discussion in Fielding’s dissertation, HATEOAS, and the historical relationship between HTTP and REST; that framing held up well."
"on the right side of history championing Carcassonne and Ticket to Ride as family staples; good observation about player loans keeping games going too long"
"good framing of Ember as for “ambitious apps” and of framework constant‑cost overhead; also correct that there’s real value in using different languages front/back, and JS did *not* take over all server‑side work"
"points to a then-current crate that used minimal unsafe for doubly-linked lists and candidly acknowledges its weaknesses; not predictive, but accurately reflecting tradeoffs"
"excellent anticipation of jurisdictional complexity, HTTPS implications for blocking, and the mismatch between old media law and global online publishing; closely tracks the major themes of the next decade"
"principled FSF-style stance on what “open” should mean; philosophically coherent but out of step with how “open hardware” is conventionally used in OCP and industry"
"diagnosed Nylas’s marketing problem precisely—too much buzzword fog, unclear core value; Nylas later repositioned around a clear “we talk IMAP/SMTP/ActiveSync so you don’t have to” API story."
"noted that users often remember position more than icon shape; this aligns well with later UX research on icon recognition and toolbar reorg penalties"
"right that AT&T would use caps/surveillance‑heavy pricing on “gigabit,” and that Google might flake on “real‑world” products; less right about Fiber materially changing Chicago"
"Pivotal rep who gave unusually candid detail on internal constraints and corrected himself publicly; the company’s eventual success/exit reflects that they were, in fact, hiring serious engineers"
"identifies revocation as a core difficulty and notes OAuth tokens as de facto capabilities; the performance argument is roughly right in distributed systems."
"apt point that “nothing left to take away” is subjective and languages cater to different tastes; relevant to the C vs. C++ debate but not predictive."
"correctly emphasized that most people will contract out infrastructure because self-hosting is too hard; this matched the subsequent explosion of SaaS/serverless adoption"
"points directly to HDMI‑to‑CSI hardware and to using a microcontroller for USB HID emulation via SPI—very close to how modern Pi‑based KVMs are actually built"
"correct that microcontrollers/RTOS are often better fits for classic embedded tasks, but the claim that the Linux/SBC path was “not sustainable” did not bear out—Linux SBCs exploded in popularity"
"correctly emphasized precedence climbing and table-driven operator definitions; slight over-equation of shunting yard with more modern preferred techniques"
"referer spam was a real problem and Google was slow to respond, but saying they “won’t bother doing anything” overstates it; bot/spam filters did improve later"
"good insight that *Serial* is intentionally about Sarah Koenig’s relationship to the story, which proved to be the template for a huge slice of narrative podcasting"
"excellent methodological and technical critique; emphasis on perceptual color models and lightness contrast matches later mainstream practice in design, dataviz, and web standards"
"usefully skeptical about the choice of xorshift128+ and asked for concrete selection criteria; that sort of scrutiny became more common around PRNG choices."
"advocated for biodegradable plastics and avoiding plastic where possible; directionally right, though later nuance shows “biodegradable” alone is not a panacea"
"correct that naive polling is often worse than WS, and that multi‑tab resource use matters; but the strong claim that long‑polling is “strictly inferior” to WS aged poorly given how widely SSE/HTTP streaming are preferred for many apps"
"very accurate in framing ISS’s main value as engineering/ops plus serving as a target for private space; this is essentially how space agencies and industry now describe its legacy"
"right about mainstream users pulling the world toward managed, locked‑down platforms; wrong or at least premature about macOS being on the chopping block"
"interesting “noble lie” hypothesis about denying group differences to reduce harm; partly borne out by later “harm reduction” arguments, though somewhat speculative"
"nuanced take on enterprise vs startup and over‑engineering; somewhat overstated “enterprise = bad”, but prescient about the value of rescuing strong devs from enterprise environments"
"prescient about p-hacking and overclaiming in biomedicine, but the suggestion that alt-med is not much more bunk than mainstream medicine is significantly off"
"Thailand seafood/fruit forced labor became one of the canonical modern-slavery examples; their description of impunity, corporate pressure, and investigator persecution was spot on."
"technically correct about small‑n demographics and chi‑square requirements; also offers real jury‑experience anecdotes consistent with later research on juror behavior"
"lived experience showing that grinding at Big Tech then retiring early to Thailand is often more durable than young‑nomad life; matches many later FIRE narratives"
"correctly reclassified the approach as Datalog/semi-naive, which matches both the implementation style and the direction of later tools in this space"
"nuanced skepticism about *Heller* and gun politics; while *Heller* has not been overturned and 2A has been strengthened, the doctrinal debate he points to remains active in academia"
"good, technically grounded explanation of how Dual_EC, custom parameters, and a swapped key form a backdoor, and why NSA’s promotion of Dual_EC was central to the risk"
"rightly skeptical about outsourcing platform clients and about Twitter’s dev‑relations story; a bit off in doubting that treating Mac as off‑channel would be acceptable—Twitter ultimately decided it was"
"correct that classification was genuinely debatable and that many IRS factors point toward contractor status; underestimated the significance of algorithmic control and overconfident on how “hands off” Uber was"
"says most startups won’t need anywhere near $5k in credits; arguably off for *ambitious* startups, but right that many startups die early and never fully consume big credit grants."
"correct that CISA was essentially already destined to pass and omnibus inclusion was mostly procedural; correctly noted other controversial riders were kept out"
"right that ISS would remain the only substantial orbital construction/habitat platform and that it would be extended; but “don’t deorbit until used to build something better” hasn’t been realized yet"
"Alexandria, VA still lacks Google Fiber and has patchy competition; the logic of “this would be a great showcase for DC‑adjacent policymakers” is sound but never materialized"
"correct about on‑chain transparency, but downplays how useful Bitcoin has proven for pseudonymous payments and why that raises Satoshi’s risk profile a bit"
"nuanced, historically grounded take on Russian capabilities, Syria, and the absence of a secret Russian “SpaceX/Tesla,” plus an accurate prediction of Russia’s strength in semi-deniable cyber activity"
"important reminder that “nightmare scenarios” like political police and mass surveillance *have* historical precedents; aligns with how many later framed kids’ data risks"
"nicely reframed “email problems” as “problems with all the inbound demands routed through email,” which matches how we now think about notification and attention overload."
"accurate about Live Movie Maker being useful and tied to other discontinued Microsoft media products; those products did in fact all get discontinued without open‑sourcing"
"using graph analysis of metadata to find “Al-Qaeda #2” in a communications network is exactly on-model, even if we can’t tie it specifically to Gaffer"
"accurate identification of p-value issues, small/bad samples, and the importance of reinforcing self-correction—exactly what much of the subsequent reform agenda has targeted"
"observes that Go doesn’t stand out that much if you already use a wide variety of languages; maybe a bit dismissive in hindsight, given Go’s outsized impact in infra, but fair from a language‑design purist’s view."
"articulated the “compiler should make reasonable code fast” philosophy and Julia’s approach; broadly borne out, though he was optimistic about Julia displacing MATLAB more than has actually happened"
"the critique of proprietary tools as “much wrong” is normatively reasonable, but practice has shown math and physics proceeding just fine with a mixed ecosystem"
"correctly notes that you’re often *forced* to deal with obscure binary formats, and that Python is a convenient choice for this even if other languages might be better for performance"
"his story about mistaken reactor meltdown vs simple venting nicely illustrates persistent public and institutional overreaction to misunderstood hazards"
"the “lawyers aren’t free” + EFF donation push was pragmatically correct; EFF’s long‑term work, even with losses like Jewel, clearly shaped the surveillance debate and some legal outcomes"
"clear, technically accurate clarification that Lattner’s bootloader/firmware remark applied to a restricted, static subset of Swift and that standard‑library constructs like strings are likely too dynamic for embedded use; this still reflects reality."
"sensible skepticism about generalized complexity results applying neatly to 19×19; “I doubt I’ll live to see [Go or chess mathematically solved]” remains true as of 2024"
"correct that tightly specifying real-valued distribution algorithms across FPUs/architectures is fraught; that complexity helped keep them unspecified."
"excellent macro-level prediction that culture and enjoyment would prevent any “optimal” eating pattern from winning, and that meal timing is highly culture-shaped"
"correctly skeptical that a Google Form and random volunteers could build a real PH competitor; good grasp of moderation/algorithm tradeoffs that align with how things evolved"
"pragmatic note that 5,000 samples is enough for general use has broadly held up, and his bootstrap tutorial fits the educational needs this space continued to have."
"right that “QA is pointless” is wrong and that Facebook would temper “move fast and break things”; slightly underestimates how far dev-owned QA would spread"
"rightly skeptical that a PH clone would fix things; good focus on ranking algorithms and transparency, though arguably underestimated PH’s staying power"
"correctly read the RStudio inspiration and identified installer/Windows issues; mostly descriptive, but in line with how fragile early DS tooling was on Windows"
"on point about GPLv3 being incompatible with LLVM’s permissive‑license goals; licensing indeed proved central to LLVM’s role as an embeddable toolchain"
"sensible about the need for revenue diversification and the reality of tradeoffs; somewhat dismissive of privacy-focused users’ importance to Mozilla’s brand"
"correctly anticipated the shift away from a naive free‑radical theory of aging and toward ROS as adaptive signaling; cited a then‑current review that aged well"
"strong argument that hiding age won’t meaningfully reduce discrimination, and that it’s minor info many find useful; matches how both practice and law evolved"
"accurately characterized SparkSQL’s role and provided a nuanced correction to Stonebraker’s claims about MapReduce, Hadoop, and columnar systems that has held up well"
"notes Apple “fixed” the issue in El Capitan by disallowing such characters; directionally right for that generation of macOS, though Apple’s stance has since become more nuanced across different password contexts"
"good insistence on transactional boundaries and consistency, but underestimated the push toward more self-healing, retry-heavy, eventually-consistent systems"
"accurately notes Canada’s lack of inheritance tax and clarifies the legal status of stillbirth registrations; both are in line with history and current law"
"good intuitive explanation of random projection, healthy skepticism about over-interpreting it as a brain model, and an early pointer to LightOn, which did become a real—if niche—player"
"accurate on perception problem—Tiles felt like adware regardless of their privacy—and on ads being a bad response to declining share; minor factual miss on Tiles being easy to disable"
"correctly skeptical about municipal Wi‑Fi as WAN vs LTE; right about UX and actual use patterns, though somewhat underestimates tourist/stationary use value"
"sensible meta-point that big, useful tools can harbor bad algorithms that later get fixed, regardless of the ecosystem; that’s exactly what happened here and in other package managers."
"cynical comment about downplaying the attack; somewhat borne out in that policy debates continued, but the technical community did not “fall asleep” on this"
"right to flag differential geometry as central; its importance in high‑energy, GR, and modern theoretical physics has only grown more widely recognized, even if ’t Hooft’s page keeps it somewhat implicit."
"observes that simply defaulting to UTF‑8 in 2.x could have fixed many errors and that a JIT would have helped “sell” Python 3; historically plausible but oversimplifies why the core team didn’t do that"
"nicely anticipates the long‑term tension around crawling, consent, and the public/private split of the web, which became a central issue with paywalls, walled gardens, and AI training controversies."
"saw that the difference was UX and integrations, and that Slack’s goal was to be “a giant log for everything in your company” — exactly the direction Slack took"
"overheated phrase “nobody cares about computers anymore” was wrong literally, but his clarified point—desktop market stagnation vs mobile growth, longer PC lifetimes, Microsoft pivoting to cloud/subscription and open source bits—was broadly on target"
"right about the comparative pain of marathon on‑sites vs a single small take‑home; describes a workflow many companies later adopted, though not especially predictive/novel"
"right to want more open talk about mental health and note how “clearly suffering” he was; the “unhinged” language was clumsy but the basic direction—mental health focus—was sound"
"argued—with measurements—that `/dev/urandom` is often fast enough to use liberally; this has largely been borne out, though most ecosystems still keep a separate fast PRNG."
"accurately reflects the maintainability pressures that make Go-like simplicity attractive in long-lived codebases, which matches later industry behavior"
"poses a good framing question—what truly *requires* GC—which the subsequent decade mostly answered with “nothing in principle, but lots of things in practice are harder without it”"
"points out that the feared future was already reality via internet.org and T‑Mobile; correctly identifies the threat zero-rating poses to Bandcamp-like services"
"emphasizes that humans lack crumple zones and cars are engineered for impact; aligns with how AVs are designed to minimize harm to pedestrians when possible."
"correctly says Android “has moved to an iOS style permissions system in 6.0”; their “this is now fixed” is somewhat premature in 2015 but correct in long‑term effect"
"good explanation of running multiple app/schema versions concurrently and designing incremental, non-breaking DB changes; in line with later best practices"
"argued that opening with ~$50k in LA was mathematically irresponsible and left no runway; Alma’s financial fragility and crowdfunding later validated that concern"
"technically accurate description of encoding/language detection that matches where real‑world tools ended up; correctly identifies ASCII vs CJK as a mostly solved, not intractable, problem"
"accurate framing of cheating as mostly non‑problematic and of Starfighter as signal-generation + human vetting; over‑optimistic implied faith in the model’s long‑term viability"
"transparent about tradeoffs and governance; very optimistic about long‑term platform/community viability, which didn’t pan out, but his cautions about abuse and rules‑lawyering were spot‑on"
"built a beloved game but overestimated its longevity and ability to anchor a business; very accurate and transparent about the immediate technical issues"
"accurate discussion of FSM complexity and behavior trees’ advantages, aligned with later mainstream game AI practice; a bit overconfident about FSMs being “deprecated”"
"correctly points out that using `Array` takes you out of the “structs‑only, simple subset” relevant for bootloaders, since arrays are value types with nontrivial runtime behavior; that distinction remains important."
"good methodological skepticism about trusting an argument that flubs basic facts; slightly underestimates that the overall pattern (overwhelmingly male perpetrators"
"good on pollution vs CO₂ distinctions and on denialists also opposing pollution controls; slightly underestimates how much “clean combustion” can reduce non‑CO₂ pollutants but basically sound"
"argued you should auto-guess language but always allow override, and distinguished UI language vs. speech language; that’s closer to how modern assistants behave"
"right that smartphones/ratings solve parts of the information-asymmetry taxi regulations targeted; but real-world outcomes layered new regulations on top, not replaced them"
"overgeneralizes that “nobody cares about responsiveness”; he wasn’t wrong about TVs and many embedded products, but mobile OS vendors did in fact invest heavily in perceived responsiveness over the following decade"
"arguing that “it’s up and not taken down, so maybe it’s legitimate” has aged poorly as a general heuristic; the later official reprint strongly suggests the PDF was unauthorized"
"“most of the world's browsers would have the feature by the end of the year” was roughly realized in practice—Chrome + Firefox + Opera covered a huge share by end of 2016"
"largely correct that non-Outlook clients avoid this class of embedded-executable issue and that newer Outlook mobile clients don’t have it; not really forward-looking but technically sound"
"accurate historical perspective that autorun/OLE were widely seen as bad ideas even then, and that business goals trumped security; that dynamic remained very true over the decade"
"argued that within ~10 years the billion unconnected could be on the real internet and questioned whether accelerating that via FacebookNet was wise; directionally right about growth and skepticism"
"right that Sync server code was relatively small and that docs had gaps; “over‑engineered” judgment aligns with later sentiment, though the WebDAV alternative is speculative"
"nicely identifies the unusual combination of skills involved—woodworking, puzzle design, “programming with wood”—which remains the right way to think about such works"
"described using Jupyter + MathJax for interactive math texts—exactly the kind of tooling that’s since grown in prominence, though not adopted by NCERT"
"claims about ebook plateau and print stabilization were broadly right for Western markets; also accurately pushes back on “piracy vs physical” by stressing attachment to physical books"
"skeptical of trolley‑problem hypotheticals and notes humans wouldn’t solve them either; this matches how actual AV policy and engineering mostly sidestepped those thought experiments."
"right about the cultural/reputational issues and about proper handling of anomalies; a bit too optimistic re EmDrive at the time, but on the right methodological side"
"correctly identified government as the only realistic actor to fix prevention incentives; accurately pessimistic about U.S. legislative follow‑through"
"strong structural analysis of corruption and civil society; overly absolutist about Moldova having “no path forward” short of unification, which looks somewhat too pessimistic given later EU‑oriented reforms"
"rightly skeptical of over-focusing on policy text; subsequent consensus emphasizes that real practices and design matter more than verbose “notice and consent”"
"raises the good question of risk tradeoffs: everyday malware vs. exotic “AV‑exploiting” malware; reality moved somewhat toward the latter being consequential"
"repeatedly and concretely described the exact failure modes—control‑plane compromise, lack of offline backups, lock‑in—that later incidents and best practices focused on"
"right that big customers don’t demand open bitstreams and that capital/tooling barriers make an “open FPGA manufacturer” implausible; slightly underestimates the real impact of open tools in education/hobbyist niches"
"right that you can’t uninvent math and that the backdoor project would likely fail politically/technically; somewhat underestimates how long the fight would drag on"
"right that the Revolution had a huge, lasting impact and that Church/aristocracy never regained pre‑1789 power; “most socialist country in Western Europe” is arguable but not absurd"
"correctly points to religion as a major source of strife and to *And So It Goes* as the key biography, though framing it as *the* reason for the split is a bit too narrow"
"defense of human exploration and tolerance for long-term, non-immediate returns matches ongoing political and public support for ISS and Artemis, though his analogy was loose and colonization is still only beginning conceptually"
"right that big systems can be built from smaller cooperating pieces and that decomposition plus process isolation can reduce *local* complexity, but slightly underplays the system‑wide complexity that remains."
"excellent, still-relevant take on code-review processes and the danger of huge cosmetic diffs; somewhat off in predicting Juniper would be “pretty much dead” if processes were weak—Juniper survived"
"quickly realized the event was ephemeral and described it as the closest thing to a true online research library; slight markdown for initial optimism about “who is next, Elsevier?”"
"points out ASIC/FPGA as relevant classical baselines; correct that specialization matters, though he underplays that asymptotic comparisons remain the key issue"
"preference for separate, composable tools remains common, especially in polyglot and infra-heavy environments, though many developers happily accept integrated stacks"
"correct that there are more direct modern ways than GIFs for real‑time content in the web, but underestimated how stuck email clients would remain, keeping hacks like this relevant"
"right about damage from **extreme** early cycling and that balance matters; wrong in framing bodies as simple machines that “wear out” with use, and overly pessimistic vs what’s now known about joint adaptation and form"
"strong and prescient critique of medical hype, but “junk science” was too sweeping for DBS; the field’s later progress and DBS’s solid standing in neurology show the science itself is not junk"
"overstated the likely impact of this specific startup; while “watching the watchers” mattered, this app did not become the kind of impactful development implied"
"correct that the tech is inevitable and raises serious responsibility questions, but the highlighted ALPR-triggered bomb scenario is classic “movie-plot terrorism” that never materialized"
"accurate that Android’s design was neither RTOS nor “Linux on a phone” and that retrofitting realtime audio would be hard; right that this was a deliberate trade‑off to ship a product"
"right to foreground real-world investigation over fetishizing crypto-breaking; this is broadly how serious child-abuse and terrorism investigations now operate"
"correctly argued that strong crypto mathematically limits state power regardless of legal authority; incomplete but directionally right given widespread E2E adoption"
"apt framing of many derivatives as de facto insurance without matching capital, though the “they should have been jailed for violating insurance regs” part has not materialized"
"correct that Android would likely not run standard JVM bytecode and would keep a specialized runtime; slightly overstated the impossibility but directionally right"
"notes paycheck‑to‑paycheck stress and weak support networks in the US; later discussions of precarity and loneliness confirm this as a key driver of misery"
"right that binary size/GC latency matter and that Rust stands out as a non‑GC, safe systems candidate; somewhat overdramatic on GC overhead in all cases"
"cynical “value options at zero” take has been largely vindicated in average‑case outcomes; calling such companies “crooks” is sometimes too harsh but directionally not crazy"
"correctly notes that citing North vs South Korea height differences is not a refutation of Hsu’s position, but actually consistent with his “high heritability within good environments, big shifts across harsh vs good environments” view"
"correctly skeptical of counting AMS as a major ISS justification and of crewed cost‑effectiveness; subsequent NASA emphasis on free‑flyers and commercial platforms supports this framing"
"good probing about the real value of CS input; history since then shows improvements mostly came from computational physicists/HPC rather than generic CS, which is close to the skepticism expressed"
"appropriately skeptical of “millions of life-threatening cases now” using the cited WHO document; later data did show millions of resistant infections, but not the massive, high-value market implied by others"
"fair observation that even clickbait outlets can host serious reporters; BuzzFeed News did produce real investigative journalism, though the parent company’s overall direction remained click- and ad-driven"
"accurate complaint that embedded SoCs lacked PC-style PnP; that’s still mostly true, though the world moved more toward Device Tree and better mainline support, not full auto-detection"
"correct about the need for both hardware and software side‑channel resistance; however, later “if you ran the same code on a smart card, you’d have the same side-channel attacks” understates the impact of secure‑element hardware and ended up somewhat oversimplified"
"correct that deviating from the mission for money risks making Mozilla “just another company”; may underplay how dire the funding concentration risk really was"
"accurate and nuanced discussion of 1D vs 2D vs 3D simulations, Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities, and computational limits; aligns well with later reflections on NIF and fusion modeling"
"raises thoughtful issues about experimental testability and decidability; some confusion about countability, but self‑corrects and stays within reasonable bounds"
"accurately described many millennials’ revealed preferences about convenience vs. privacy, but underestimates how much that attitude would be challenged by later scandals like Cambridge Analytica and widespread tracking awareness"
"intuition that fundamental‑theory funding/hiring would be squeezed relative to more applied or testable work was broadly borne out, though not decisively “zero‑sum.”"
"argues that “voting with your dollars doesn’t work” and notes that essentially no bars voluntarily went smoke-free; broadly borne out by real-world patterns"
"good insight that 5‑star ratings compress different use‑cases and that discovery should be more taste‑matched, though no Yelp‑killer with that model has emerged at scale"
"good technical points about scheduler, operator overloading semantics, and the reality that not all concurrency models bolt on nicely; broadly borne out."
"no strong predictions, but correctly challenged the idea that “no default params = enforced elegant APIs”; history bears out that API quality is orthogonal"
"right that data/model uncertainties and policy design are complex; wrong in tone and in overstating how “crap” the data/models are given how well they tracked the next decade’s warming"
"painfully accurate description of the psychological toll of long rejection and bad jobs, matching later mainstream discussions about mental health in tech"
"expresses the “some people can’t be redeemed” view that underlies a lot of modern policy; not really addressing the rights/constitution dimension that has driven much of the actual legal evolution"
"the specific 1000:1 ratio is casual, but the idea that good behavior is baseline and thus less salient is consistent with modern accounts of base rates and negativity bias"
"excellent, concrete articulation of why silicon can vastly outperform brains: speed, size, parallelism, memory; central to how scaling laws played out"
"correct that pattern recognition is a major part of intelligence and that future AI would be a composition of different parts, not a single magic algorithm"
"right that GPGPU largely took the acceleration market; less supported is the idea that open bitstreams would have unlocked a “huge market” for FPGAs—closed tools didn’t prevent AWS F1, Catapult, etc., but FPGAs stayed niche regardless"
"Reasonably argued that Netflix would want deeper, custom instrumentation than New Relic and that cost/performance concerns at Netflix scale matter—a view borne out by how large orgs mix APM with bespoke tooling."
"balanced, emphasizes that understanding all genders matters and that focusing only on one risks new imbalances; mostly descriptive, light on predictions"
"predicted ending up either paying for something Slack‑like “inside the firewall” or wrestling with a worse competitor; that’s pretty much the real split: Teams in enterprises, Slack/alternatives elsewhere, not true on‑prem Slack"
"cathedral metaphor and recognition that DF could be much more valuable commercially were spot‑on; implication that “too much money” would inherently be bad aged less well given how life‑saving Steam revenue was"
"strong early push for encryption and structural privacy guarantees; the specific “cut yourself off from data unless user publishes” model didn’t become standard, but the concern aged extremely well"
"excellent mini‑survey of generalized and data-dependent grammars; those lines of work remained central for advanced parsing research, though still niche in practice"
"correctly emphasized the long‑run benefits of fractional reserve and skepticism of 100%‑reserve experiments; consistent with Switzerland’s eventual rejection and mainstream practice"
"very strong grasp of the economics of zero‑marginal‑cost goods and the reality that Lowery was fighting market forces as much as specific platforms; this broadly maps to what happened"
"thoughtful argument that unmanned science is currently more cost‑effective and that we aren’t on a 5‑billion‑year deadline; cost ratio was corrected in‑thread and the rest is largely philosophical rather than falsifiable"
"right that resistance can emerge quickly; too pessimistic in implying that might make 10 years of development for “1 year of sales” inherently irrational, given many drugs remain useful for decades with managed resistance"
"excellent, technically correct and prescient explanation of aquifer limits, collapse, and saltwater intrusion that matches the next decade’s problems"
"technically solid and forward‑looking explanation of Streamflow, TBBmalloc’s remote‑free memory blowup, and general allocator design issues; these concerns remain valid"
"the example about medical students and credit ratings was a bit speculative, but captured the broader dynamic: innocuous online behavior feeding into opaque scoring systems, which we’ve since clearly seen."
"accurate clarification about reflective solar cookers and a very plausible explanation for non-adoption—time/scheduling constraints—that is borne out by experience"
"right that pseudonymity via Tor/PGP is feasible, but significantly understates the conceptual difficulty of inventing Bitcoin, calling it something any competent programmer could devise"
"correct about the importance of planning, gate hours, and US productivity issues; somewhat overstates US nighttime shutdowns and union causality but broadly on the right trajectory"
"optimistic take on VA-API and gstreamer-vaapi was directionally right, though full, painless HW video decode—especially in browsers—took longer than “during 2016.”"
"captured GNOME dev constraints and some real tradeoffs, but was overconfident about CSD being practically harmless/optional and underestimated later willingness to drop autotools"
"reasonable counterpoint about many VCs not micromanaging; accurate for many cases but underestimates how strong board/investor control can be in high-profile situations"
"succinct diagnosis of publication pressure, networking, and positive-results bias; correctly skeptical of the 18th‑century publication model and nudging toward collaborative/open alternatives"
"important reminder that many ailments are not new, just newly labeled—and that the bad old days included *all that* plus famine and witch hangings; very much in line with later “better and still bad” syntheses"
"treats debt as something that must usually be paid off and that accumulates cost; broadly aligned with current thinking, though not all debt is actually paid down in practice"
"strongly and correctly emphasizes that poverty, healthcare, incarceration, and family instability are primary drivers of educational failure; skepticism about top-down “reimagining school” has been largely validated by mixed results of Gates- and CZI-style reforms"
"observes that storytelling hasn’t gone away, only shifted focus; very much borne out by the explosion of non-sky-centered but still cosmic-adjacent media"
"emotionally and normatively right that decade‑long stalling is problematic; not predictive, but their frustration turned out to be fully justified by how Jewel ultimately fizzled"
"correctly pushed on the absurdity of blocking UK users; UK access to BBC Travel did largely normalize, though their hope that “fire‑walling” would broadly be seen as pointless hasn’t materialised"
"correctly cynical about DOJ’s financial motives; overconfident that state laws would broadly become more flexible to expand forfeiture—many states actually moved the other way"
"correct that we’re in a multi‑architecture world, but overemphasized GNU as the sole bulwark against proprietary tools; LLVM itself evolved into a major, freedom‑preserving base for vendor toolchains"
"reasonable observation about time‑scale of human learning vs a few days of NN training; remains a central comparison, though deep models have partially closed that gap via transfer and in‑context learning"
"good high-level explanation of representation learning, manifold untangling, and cross-modal vectors; slightly optimistic on the near-term pace of embodied RL discovery"
"neutral but useful contribution: pointing to Karpathy’s NIPS browser, which fits well with later trends in paper discovery; no real prediction to judge"
"right that carriers and network saturation were big problems; partially underestimates how much app size would remain a bottleneck despite 4G/5G advances"
"accurate intuition about people preferring CLAs to nonprofits over individuals/companies; that hierarchy of trust showed up repeatedly in later projects"
"saw Slack as a transformational, revenue‑real company and viewed the ecosystem bet as a sign of strength; directionally correct, though not every superlative held company‑wide"
"points to Climate Action Tracker and 4°C research, explains that multiple impact threads and societal collapse risks are plausible even if hard to quantify; aged well."
"server‑side GA without identifiers is technically and ethically sound, and conceptually matches later “minimal data” analytics, though relying on GA itself now looks less attractive given regulatory and trust issues"
"correct that Parrot was the really interesting “big VM” idea and that its demise reduced the broader significance; somewhat underestimates that MoarVM/NQP still make Raku a decent vehicle for experimentation"
"leaned on anti‑circumvention/DRM language to suggest adblock circumvention might be illegal; this has not meaningfully materialized in law or enforcement"
"accurately characterized Quirky as more of a vanity/advertising platform; also made a sound point comparing C&A’s hiring to PayPal/Y Combinator networks."
"strong, balanced reading of ’t Hooft’s intent; correctly emphasizes the role of autodidact work as a supplement, not a replacement, and flags real issues with K–12 science education and adult discomfort in undergrad environments."
"right about the Mac App Store being neglected and the webview‑based app being brittle; slightly over‑the‑top predictions about “everything is a web view,” but directionally not crazy"
"good intuitive prediction that once humans start tuning the “timer,” it will feel like micromanagement rather than a neutral challenge; consistent with what we’ve seen about imposed vs. emergent constraints"
"on how hard it is for founders to get liquidity even in strong private companies; later rise of secondary platforms softened but didn’t erase this truth"
"sharply draws a parallel between the Stork Derby and modern lotteries, highlighting the exploitative structure; their view that poverty often entails misery is well-supported by later and current research"
"reasonable, if somewhat cynical, take that this was likely a modest outcome mostly benefiting founders; directionally in line with how such exits usually play out"
"LN₂ dewar story and safety link hold up well; some details corrected by others but the core lesson about relief devices and catastrophic failure remains textbook"
"articulates the idea of cycling/retiring antibiotics and valuing them over decades; not implemented as such, but the long-horizon, delinked-value logic matches later policy thinking"
"reasonably predicts that usage data drives marketing and ad-side improvements and that student data would likely improve youth-targeting; directionally right though details remain opaque"
"insightful in contrasting Google Glass vs. proper AR, but overconfident prediction that VR/AR would be as boring/ubiquitous as smartphones within 10 years has not played out"
"hoping WaPo would set a trend among news orgs toward HTTPS; that largely happened, though with some delay and rough edges like HSTS/cookie flags initially"
"very accurate anticipation of commercial imagery putting “spy satellite” capabilities in non‑government hands; perfectly aligns with the subsequent OSINT era"
"points to `Object.freeze` as today’s immutable-ish tool; still true, though the ecosystem gravitated more to libraries and patterns than language-enforced immutability"
"reasonably pushes back on “not useful often,” which in hindsight is closer to how things developed—rules-based systems became visibly useful in several domains"
"embracing night‑owl status instead of fighting it aligns with later “sleep acceptance” messaging, though his one effective trick—paid morning classes—is more behavioral hack than enduring insight"
"sharp and still‑correct distinction between D‑Wave’s annealer and gate‑model QCs; correctly notes that complexity of quantum annealing is not yet known"
"right that Microsoft implemented an early/variant form of the Annex K functions; the broader ecosystem’s lack of adoption makes the significance of this limited"
"correct that Atlassian was a “legit,” cash-generating Microsoft-like listing rather than a Twitter-style money burner; the Slack-driven valuation angle was less central than implied"
"correct, succinct correction that white-collar crime involves real evidence and laws, and that power dynamics, not loopholes, often protect offenders"
"asking the right question about what % equity justifies a 40% pay cut as first key engineer; hindsight suggests such cuts rarely pay off without truly co‑founder‑level stakes"
"correctly pushes back on naive “will of the people” explanations and cites concrete corporate manipulation examples; later investigations into industry‑funded research vindicate this"
"strong on descriptive aspects of endogenous money and MMT; subsequent mainstream acceptance of those descriptive points supports much of what he argued, even if policy implications remain controversial"
"argued convincingly for user‑controlled zoom and against sites “helping” by disabling it; later echoed by Chrome’s “force enable zoom” and accessibility guidance"
"correctly highlighted that electricity is already cheaper per mile than gasoline and that falling battery costs are the real existential threat; timing of impact was early but direction was right"
"good focus on duplication, coupling, and failure modes as core of technical debt, and that picking the “wrong DB/language” is a secondary, indirect factor; that matches modern code‑centric definitions"
"strong challenge to complacency, accurate description of radicalization hotlines, and a prescient link between Alexievich’s world and contemporary forms of fear and control"
"flagging that distributing C extensions is a pain aged reasonably well, even though wheels and better tooling have eased this; the tradeoff between pure Python simplicity and C speed is still real"
"historically accurate point that Disney grew big under relatively shorter U.S. terms, undercutting claims that long terms are necessary for a Disney‑scale empire"
"good explanation of decoupling via REST, polling feeds and webhooks; slightly idealized versus the eventual dominance of explicit message buses/streams"
"partly right that Google’s Apps stack is separate and slower, but too confident in “stability vs features” as the main explanation; in hindsight the story is messier and more business/organizational than purely technical"
"correct to push back that U.S. policy and practice toward Native Americans involved more systematic killing and ethnic cleansing than some commenters allowed, though also mixing older and newer scholarship somewhat loosely"
"balanced view: deep learning is powerful but not the whole of intelligence; recognized its lack of reasoning while acknowledging its practical strengths and ongoing usefulness"
"initial “maybe we’re near the max possible intelligence / nuclear analogy might fail” idea is undermined by subsequent scaling results; to his credit he repeatedly frames it as a half‑baked thought experiment and shows willingness to update"
"very strong emphasis on health and emissions as the real stakes, and on immediate vs long-term incentives; matches the way clean cooking policy has evolved"
"overheated tone, but his core claims—that US broadband would remain mediocre/expensive by rich‑country standards due to entrenched monopolies and regulatory capture—have held up"
"right that Let’s Encrypt would be hugely impactful and that automation would help everyday admins; somewhat over-optimistic about mail encryption, but SMTP TLS did improve"
"the instinct “it’s more sensible to improve Linux than clone Windows” matches how Wine/Proton/Linux became the practical path; more philosophical than predictive, but directionally solid"
"good sense that Perl’s real strength is in backend/ops tooling, and that Raku was unlikely to dethrone JS on the web; somewhat optimistic about how big a role Raku would play there"
"right that Marshmallow hurt Nexus 7 performance and that Android lag limited music‑making usefulness; the principled refusal to use iOS remained self‑limiting given where the ecosystem went"
"right that Linux as a *userland* ecosystem is enormous, but the comment misses the specific BSP/driver/doc issues that were, and remain, the real ugliness"
"right that Kloak didn’t offer clear privacy advantages over contemporaries like TextSecure/Signal, and Signal ended up the de facto standard; comparison is slightly apples-to-oranges since Kloak was more “social” than “messaging,” but the underlying point aged well."
"sound point about state tax boards aligning with state law and the “usual and customary” angle; Republican Congress never passed the hoped-for federal backing"
"hopes for a Sony–Kojima relationship akin to Polyphony/GT; not exactly first‑party, but Kojima did get a very cozy, privileged partnership with Sony for Death Stranding"
"captures a real psychological heuristic—“equity is worthless” as self-protection—but underestimates how often this leads to concrete missed upside, as later data and anecdotes showed"
"fair point that Google often fails to productize tech well, and that even with GA’s dominance, specialized analytics startups thrived; roughly mirrored by what happened in ML/CV"
"framing sharing as “civil disobedience” is at least intellectually honest about the tradeoff, though it didn’t anticipate that a rights-holder would soon actively republish"
"good questions about intentional vs accidental backdoors and version control traceability; correctly identifies the key issues even if answers weren’t known"
"nicely distinguishes “something wrong with the concept of your app” from generic UX or tech issues; but the specific “conceptual debt” label didn’t become standard"
"good foresight on delegated computation / outsourced secure compute; FHE and related techniques did progress, but are still not broadly practical for mainstream cloud services"
"good call that Peeron is valuable mainly for “classic” era and that official coverage starts around the 90s; Peeron later stagnated, which fits the described “Web 1.0” vibe"
"remote‑first advocacy looked extreme in 2015 but was substantially vindicated by the 2020s; the 50‑year “everyone in one office will look insane” claim is still untestable"
"right that LL Bean gear historically lasted and was backed by a generous warranty, but the implied “buy thrifted, replace for free forever” angle was undercut when LL Bean substantially curtailed its lifetime guarantee in 2018"
"excellent, legally accurate explanation of how Mickey’s copyright expiration would intersect with trademark, later borne out in 2024 coverage and practice"
"good sociological read that chess lost its monopoly as “the” highbrow game; mostly correct even though chess later regained significant cultural prominence."
"points out that even surrendering all visible assets wouldn’t cover listed debts, implying big missing/implicit asset categories—broadly true, though more structural context would help"
"prescient concern about the precedent of US asserting IP jurisdiction across borders; extraterritorial US prosecutions have indeed expanded, and remain controversial"
"on‑point description of private ALPR/databases and asset‑forfeiture‑driven policing; those revenue and surveillance dynamics only became more salient"
"strong, nuanced picture of rural/exurban decline, retiree‑driven economies, and intergenerational housing/care dynamics that fits 2016–2024 very well"
"conceptually right that multi-angle information is valuable, but underestimates the practical limits of spot size and omnidirectional fluorescence in this setup"
"right that malware can steal software keys and smartcards/hardware help; a bit too dismissive given that non-smartcard, OS-integrated authenticators plus WebAuthn became widely accepted"
"technically sophisticated critique of naive location fuzzing that lines up well with later real-world deanonymization attacks on location-based services."
"solid engineering reasoning about managing head acceleration; not directly realized in products but conceptually sound and still relevant to protective-gear design"
"good practical point that self‑care and local leverage matter even if global suffering is worse elsewhere; echoed later in discussions about burnout in activism and EA"
"correct that a Junos issue would be catastrophic given its ubiquity; speculation about NSA’s role in other Cisco/ROMMON issues remains plausible but unproven"
"solid practical advice on trunks, OpenBSD’s evolving base components, and realistic OS choices for 10GbE; small nit on “FreeBSD for 10GbE” now often sharing that honor with Linux"
"“Is anyone hearing the message?”—partly; Apple–FBI and later battles showed the message did reach beyond HN, but public understanding is still uneven"
"significantly underestimated realistic infrastructure costs at scale; the “$50 VPS” mindset didn’t age well in the context of nation‑state‑resistant, noise‑heavy messaging"
"correct about ACA out‑of‑pocket caps limiting extreme in‑network bills, though real‑world loopholes and surprise billing persisted until the No Surprises Act"
"overconfident assertion that major retailers basically don’t store PANs and that honeypot‑card ideas “wouldn’t work”; subsequent breaches and the evolution of deception techniques show this was too categorical"
"“no production quality C or C++ compiler uses anything other than a hand-rolled recursive descent parser, afaik” is broadly true for the mainstream toolchains through 2025"
"strong, largely accurate criticism of Juniper’s code quality and auditing; right to call continued Dual_EC use post‑Snowden inexcusable, though “toxic forever” was harsher than the market’s actual response"
"realistic description of UK tabloid/political framing—foreign tech as villains, focus on jobs and “terrorists”—which is exactly how such debates are usually spun"
"claim that Ruby shouldn’t be more than ~2× shorter than C++ is too conservative given how often dynamic languages and better libraries yield much larger reductions"
"correct about division of labour and the value of broad lifestyle programs, but “absolute insanity” to use doctors is overstated; physician counseling remains recommended and somewhat effective"
"waiting for newer CUDA/cuDNN support and skeptical about early benchmarks; performance *did* improve with newer cuDNN/CUDA and TF matured to match expectations"
"right focus on default/ubiquitous encryption and the limits of individual action; slightly pessimistic given how far HTTPS and E2EE have actually spread"
"meta‑observation about repeating cycles of “your computer isn’t a real computer” maps nicely onto the decade of Pi/smartphone skepticism that followed"
"good on misaligned incentives and NDA-based support; correctly cautious that things like Zynq wouldn’t be mass‑market hits, though he slightly overestimated Intel’s long-term maker play"
"right that trends are dynamic and Surface was unexpectedly influential; slightly too casual about Google’s Pixel investment, which later became a core brand"
"notes interesting fractionalization benefits and correctly identifies private-key theft as a critical risk; neither benefit nor risk became central in mainstream equities."
"detailed but incorrect prediction that Google’s economics would force it toward near‑collapse while a spun‑out Bing+Yahoo might endure; none of that happened"
"right about payer constraints limiting high antibiotic prices, but wrong that “we can currently culture anything that infects humans” and underestimates the depth of the market failure"
"reasonable to highlight employer‑provided US benefits, but “not that far behind” Europe looks wrong in light of COVID, medical debt, and comparative welfare data"
"excellent explanation of FPGA vs ASIC vs structured ASIC tradeoffs, correctly names key vendors and predicts enduring power gap and niche status of structured ASICs"
"repeatedly correct about C culture resisting safer variants, about focusing on new languages + interop, and about the niche but important role of CompCert/verified tooling"
"very strong strategic predictions about Intel+Altera, the difficulty of new FPGA vendors, and the niche role of open tools; generally cautious where that caution was warranted"
"very aligned with today’s “zero trust” mindset: treat WiFi as untrusted, rely on higher-layer security, see WiFi crypto as mainly for access control/availability"
"excellent historical analogy to Hoover, clear articulation of blackmail/leverage risks, and a realistic political strategy focused on elites’ self‑interest"
"very good overview of ASIC tool/mask economics and early open‑tooling status; his “open tools are getting there slowly” aged well given OpenLane/OpenROAD progress"
"strong historical context on small and secure kernels, and accurate skepticism about C++ verification tooling; broadly aligned with later Rust & microkernel trends"
"rightly rejected popularity-as-proof-of-superiority and correctly highlighted Lisp’s unusual expressive power; nuanced later comment about social/economic adoption factors held up well"
"very strong exposition on ASIC vs FPGA costs and design flows, and on the economic/market barriers to exotic secure hardware. CPU-on-card concept didn’t pan out, but he correctly flagged it as likely impractical and patent-exposed"
"accurate picture of smartphone patent thickets and their anti-competitive effects; good intuition about patents as weapons rather than innovation drivers"
"accurately pessimistic about meaningful US legal reform and public apathy; somewhat overstated the futility of technical measures without prior legal change"
"right that Xen is a messy foundation and that microkernels are architecturally superior; less right in implying Qubes’ choice would doom it—Qubes still flourished in its niche"
"emphasized SCM security as an underappreciated problem and pointed to Wheeler’s work; fully in line with how software supply‑chain security rose in importance later"
"insightful on microkernels and safe languages; somewhat overstates Unix “fundamental flaws,” but broadly aligned with later interest in seL4/Fuchsia and memory-safe systems code"
"calling the site “should get more attention and probably an award” was directionally right—BetterExplained became a respected niche resource, though not a mega‑platform."
"rightly emphasizes the lasting value of backend knowledge and hints at practical work with Core/STG; mildly wrong about a G-machine output option and optimistic about “FP CPUs”"
"idea that OSS should patent defensively remains debated, but the logic that big players will patent everything not nailed down to gain leverage was validated"
"right about many architectural trends—SGI NUMA, accelerators—but overestimates SPARC/MIPS/PPC as enduring alternatives to ARM; the market moved instead to ARM and RISC‑V"
"correct that current systems in 2015 were far from “thinking machines,” but badly underestimates how quickly that would change; frames control as “just” a security problem, which now looks incomplete"
"correct that deep nets don’t “think” like humans, but quite wrong about their likely impact and the risk of a second AI winter; deep learning instead powered an unprecedented AI boom"
"some useful points about UX/workarounds, but the confident treatment of “Jew” as a race in a biological/legal sense doesn’t map well to contemporary understanding and law."
"right that AP’s natural domain is pattern matching, but the strong claim about Venray TOMI’s “incredible” low-cost performance did not match industry reality"
"continues to treat LOC/time as a meaningful productivity metric despite strong counter‑arguments and a decade of industry movement away from that view"
"most forward‑looking comment: correctly spotlighted C#/.NET as the relevant comparison and anticipated exactly the kind of Lattner‑style deep‑dive conversations that later defined much of the Swift meta‑discussion"
"good analysis of the real usability/sync/expiry problems that would make broad client-cert adoption hard; matched later focus areas of WebAuthn/passkeys"
"right that calling Thunderbird “anachronistic” underestimated its ongoing importance and user passion; Thunderbird later got exactly the sort of investment he hoped for, including better encryption"
"calling it “totally aimed at Google” is oversimplified but directionally right: Apple’s privacy features have materially hurt Google/Facebook‑style tracking"
"good point about language-level special syntax vs generic abstractions, and correct about Swift’s `?.` limitation; a bit out of sync with Python’s pragmatic trajectory"
"accurately notes that in a high‑demand market you can’t excessively annoy candidates; broadly matched the next decade, though hiring cycles and markets fluctuated"
"praises Switzerland’s stability and the franc’s strength; broadly still true, although Credit Suisse’s 2023 collapse shows that Swiss banking is not uniquely immune to failure"
"underestimates role of bad sex ed and structural factors; puts too much weight on individual teen “responsibility” in the presence of systemic misinformation"
"gave a concrete, accurate description of Slack’s value—history, search, integrations, notifications, mobile apps—for teams; Slack went on to be exactly that for a huge fraction of the industry."
"non‑predictive, but practically oriented and aligned with the reality that PowerLoom would stay a specialized tool with wrappers and small ecosystems"
"correct observation that graph queries are costly, entity lookups cheap; positive, realistic stance on using KG alongside DBpedia and Freebase, but little predictive content"
"dramatically overstates “units are completely unimportant” and that “no real scientist” cares about them; contradicted by both historical and ongoing practice"
"good explanation of why large rotating stations are hard, and broadly right about improved bone‑loss countermeasures and the cost comparison to U.S. military spending; “no measurable loss” is a bit overstated but directionally accurate"
"good instincts about Linux being capable of <10 ms and correctly separating media‑key lag from audio‑pipeline latency; somewhat speculative in diagnosing AudioFlinger vs alternatives"
"good, still-relevant comparison to motorsport safety and HANS; the accelerometer-trigger idea aligns with later practice in spirit if not in exact implementation"
"technically sensible advice on alignment and persistent mapping in the abstract, but overconfident that such GL patterns would neatly solve driver‑level issues that, in practice, remained problematic on Apple’s GL for years"
"spots iCE40’s uniqueness as the only fully open‑toolchain FPGA family at the time and ties that to board demand; also brings up structured ASICs and useful links"
"sensible skepticism about lumping all “functional languages” together, and right that Haskell vs Lisp differences are large; not strongly predictive but good framing"
"correct and still-relevant explanation of consensus/bootstrap and blocking; notes that the design paper is out of date regarding hidden services and emphasizes bridges/pluggable transports, which became central"
"minor but correct practical note about cookie settings; a small example of real-world friction with web apps, which remained an issue in various forms"
"built a tool that directly anticipated official tfdbg functionality; accurate technical explanation of Jupyter internals, and his sense of the need for better DL debugging tools was spot-on"
"skeptical about PDF Expert’s business model due to the Mac App Store’s state; MAS did remain flawed, but Readdle made the model work well and expanded beyond MAS"
"captured real 2015 pain of installing the SciPy stack on Windows; ecosystem improvements and Anaconda/wheels/WSL have since made this mostly a solved problem"
"insightful reflection on how much we used to squeeze from tiny machines; claim that “modern software is horribly slow” is directionally right but a bit one-sided"
"consistently accurate, detailed explanations of GPUOpen’s MIT licensing, standards‑based APIs, and Nvidia middleware licensing realities; also correctly harsh on AMD’s developer support quality at the time."
"reasonably accurate comparison of PS4 APU to an HD 7790 and correct that, with proper Radeon DRM support, mid‑tier PC games like Witcher 2 should be playable under Linux"
"the idea of app-level certificate pinning as resistance is sound in theory and used by some apps; in practice, broad pinning didn’t become the main line of defense against Kazakhstan’s 2019 attempt"
"correct that MinGW’s deterministic `random_device` was problematic, but overconfident about the standard’s “intent” and vendor “laziness”; reality remained more nuanced."
"nuanced distinction between factual generalizations and normative treatment; predicted tension between truth‑seeking and offense avoidance that indeed intensified"
"accurately intuited that Uber’s long‑term strategy was to eliminate the need for drivers, though the timeline has been much slower and Uber has since pivoted to partnerships"
"reported actual use of this vector in the wild for keyloggers and cryptolockers and highlighted the hardest part—user education—which in hindsight was exactly the long-term bottleneck"
"strong, nuanced critique of maximalist rhetoric while still backing reform; largely consistent with how serious policy debates have evolved, though still normative rather than predictive"
"points out the missing logical step in “others have it worse, therefore you shouldn’t care”; that fallacy has only become more visible in later moral discourse"
"thoughtful sociological analysis of why physics embraces FOSS tooling more than chemistry; not really predictive, but consistent with how things continued"
"good intuition that the history of underground copying is rich material; such books and projects have indeed flourished, even if this wasn’t framed as a prediction"
"early adopter of high-touch OSINT-style recruiting that became standard; misjudged how “creepy” it would feel to individuals, but directionally prescient"
"insightful that GTD made him execute more “pointless” tasks and that tracking everything can be avoidance; reflects today’s criticism of productivity as procrastination"
"right about in-group networks, handshake capitalism, and systemic issues; somewhat over-generalized but directionally in line with later scrutiny of Gujarati-linked big business"
"rightly stressed how undercapitalized and brutally hard small restaurants are, and that you can’t simply “scale” a tiny neighborhood space into a destination"
"idea of power‑line noise injection as a defense aligns loosely with real countermeasures like noise and randomization, but practical effectiveness is limited; later research still focuses more on structured constant‑time and hardware techniques"
"vision of cheap, on‑demand electric autonomous transport and large safety/economic gains is plausible long‑term, but the “sooner than most think” timeline and “trillions per decade” in the near term were over‑optimistic."
"listed several plausible crisis channels; bond and asset-bubble concerns were on target, but lacked specificity and some scenarios didn’t materialize"
"diagnoses debt overhang and stealth monetization reasonably but prescribes outright default; Japan instead doubled down on gradualism, so his “better to rip the band-aid off” scenario remains purely speculative"
"claims Satoshi’s stash could be easily cashed out via private deals; in practice no such thing has occurred and the premise that Wright might control the stash proved wrong"
"good explanation of connection costs and how evented platforms can sustain large WS counts; broadly consistent with later high‑connection WS deployments"
"asserts that “Phoenix” is a bad, non-notable name and implies it won’t gain notoriety; Phoenix the framework is now the best-known “Phoenix” in web dev"
"strong on adaptation costs, sunk infrastructure, and why a few degrees and meters of sea‑level rise are enormously disruptive; also right about markets not instantly pricing Paris in one trading day."
"idea of an independent Android store with CyanogenMod didn’t happen and likely underestimated the gravity of Play Services; more wishful than prescient"
"right about user tolerance for LaTeX compile latency when quality is high; Overleaf’s later work on responsiveness confirms the importance of this issue"
"accurate for 2015 about load balancers and lack of wildcards; wildcards arriving in 2018 changed the long‑term picture, but they didn’t claim it was impossible"
"nicely articulates the real value: ES6 via transpilers for cleaner code, with tools like xto6 as possible helpers; this is broadly how things went, minus xto6 itself"
"sensible discomfort with casually negative country analogies; while not factually about the floods, this sensitivity aligns with later norms in public discourse"
"correctly connects Verizon’s lukewarm attitude to Wi‑Fi calling and interest in LTE‑U to spectrum constraints and desire for controlled offload, which is how carriers treat unlicensed aggregation"
"very good practical/professional details about dentures, sealants, and dentist incentives, but the “it’s not genetics, it’s all diet and hygiene” line is a clear miss"
"Hume recommendation and explanation of induction issues are on solid ground; slightly overstates “impossibility” without acknowledging Bayesian/MDL frameworks"
"insisted that meaningful federal gun curbs would require a constitutional amendment and that such an amendment would struggle—consistent with events from 2015–2025"
"right about duplication and maintenance pain from lack of generics, and that Haskell/Rust communities are more open about their own shortcomings; a bit harsh on Go, but the core technical critique aged well."
"argues Google should blacklist the extension; Chrome later cracked down on this class of extensions, and AVG/Avast extensions were removed from stores in 2019–20"
"correct general observation that some issues—like lead paint, smoking—require central regulation; the subsequent decade of smoke-free policy broadly validated that"
"sensible pragmatic workaround—webpack + UMD as foreign lib—that accurately reflected the bridge pattern many teams actually used before better npm support and shadow-cljs"
"separating “where sources are fetched from” from “how they’re used” is roughly what lockfiles, mirrors, and repo proxies now do; directionally right, but not very specific"
"good factual correction: this specific shutdown was about a criminal investigation subpoena, not Marco Civil repeal, which matches later understanding"
"significantly underestimated the usefulness of a local OSM API/database for offline/field and humanitarian use, though the shapefile explanation was fine"
"correctly identifies that the 80–20 rule doesn’t apply to safety‑critical driving: partial autonomy with human on deck yields limited benefit; exactly the L2/L3 “handoff” trap regulators and OEMs now worry about."
"balanced stance: wants some technical probing plus soft assessment; skeptical of unpaid multi‑week trials; generally in line with mainstream practice"
"right to be skeptical about attributing modern concepts to religion per se, but overrelies on the holy books as the only content of a religion, which dragonwriter properly pushes back on"
"strong, correct *aspiration* for open‑source textbooks with build scripts; unfortunately, India did not move in that direction, so as a forecast of policy it doesn’t hold"
"resonated with the “abitopen” philosophy; accurate in sensing that such an approach reduces maintainer stress, but it also correlates with low project longevity/adoption, as happened here"
"methodology nitpicks—date stamps, definitions of “debt,” decomposition of “rest of world” equities—are all well-founded; in line with how serious analysts now treat such visuals"
"good call that DV would become “just encryption” in a Let’s Encrypt world and that EV’s value is mostly human/UX; also thoughtful about trust agility"
"good question—“but will the service work in India?”—answer turned out to be effectively “no” for this product, while Google Pay later succeeded there via UPI instead"
"strong, durable insight that REST is about decoupling, bounded contexts, and socio‑technical benefits, not just verbs and URLs; very consistent with mature practice a decade later."
"general but solid skepticism about trusting privacy apps on locked-down, potentially backdoored devices and via auto-updates; that threat model held up, though it wasn’t unique to Kloak."
"good sense that you’d ultimately want head-mounted AR and schematic views; that’s roughly what industrial HoloLens scenarios look like, even if not for everyday “reality editors”"
"strong, accurate praise and additional video links; slightly marred by the “unsophisticated crowd” take that reads as needlessly snobbish in hindsight"
"good illustration of how well‑intentioned “fixes” can shift failure from sacrificial parts to catastrophic breakage—very much in line with modern engineering‑safety thinking"
"correctly frames the adoption problem as targeting those already willing to leave C, emphasizes C interop and notes Rust’s portability/tooling constraints realistically"
"philosophical but accurate framing that failure is the default and redefining success as “making any attempt”; now common in resilience/learning discussions"
"reading Scott as possibly burnt out was plausible, and later widespread discussion of clinician burnout makes this interpretation more salient, though we can’t confirm his personal state"
"correct in spirit that evolution only “cares” about reproduction, but factually wrong in claiming there is no cancer that affects the old predominantly; cancer incidence is strongly age‑dependent"
"accurately captured the lasting, mainstream use of 3D printers in labs: lots of jigs/fixtures and fast prototyping, not replacement of all instruments"
"solid, realistic comments about practical replication limits and when replication is and isn’t worth it; a bit optimistic about how reproducible most published methods actually are in practice"
"good points on the cost and difficulty of doing a deep security audit; less accurate in assuming a sophisticated attacker would definitely avoid plaintext and in quickly ruling out Juniper engineers as a possible source"
"clearly grasped the key misrepresentation about third-party machines and venipuncture; misplaced hope that Theranos might still deliver half of its claims"
"calling out uninformed speculation was justified; brief “this is good art” remark aligns with how the project is remembered, but no concrete predictions"
"the confusion about service discovery was common; the question prompted useful clarifications that reflect how logical addresses and discovery are now handled"
"“Microsoft is competent enough to fix the warts” and intent to stick with the app; in practice Cortana mobile never really got polished or popular and was killed"
"right to push back on romanticizing state actors vs criminals, but the “criminal underbelly as small‑scale reaction to state crimes” is an overgeneralization"
"right that omnibus/reconciliation tactics are being stretched; perhaps slightly overstated how unique this case was, but the procedural critique aged well"
"directionally right about the flood of mediocre long‑form and weaker gatekeeping online, but “editorial staff is dead” and the implication that length no longer correlates to quality at major outlets is overstated and disproven by the next decade"
"rightly focused on the difficulty of finding Qubes-capable, blob-free hardware and the problems with Intel ME; that worry directly foreshadowed later interest in Purism, NitroPad, and open/RISC‑V laptops"
"prescient on enterprise-blockchain hype and many “solution looking for a problem” projects; too dismissive of later genuine crypto-native use cases like DeFi and stablecoins"
"correct that humans probably wouldn’t be fooled by these exact pixel tweaks, but the implication that human perception is fundamentally secure against analogous attacks is overstated; humans have many exploitable illusions"
"very good call that “the ship sailed” on CUDA vs OpenCL and that NVIDIA’s deep-learning investment would keep CUDA in front; correct about Google not backing OpenCL"
"right that strong AI needs “several breakthroughs”; VR did get decent within ~5 years, but AI ended up far more societally impactful than their framing suggests"
"right about OpenAI’s deep-learning focus and lack of dedicated safety researchers at launch; significantly underestimated how far “hacky” deep nets would go and predicted a plateau that didn’t arrive—yet"
"right that in 2015 we were still “far, far away” from full-on superintelligence and that many AGI projects then were vaporous; wrong to dismiss AGI/general-intelligence research as not producing “anything that works” just before it did"
"spot-on about scaling via teams turning you into a boss and profit being roughly linear; accurately describes the trade-off between “real freelancer” vs “company owner”"
"intuition that if LTE‑U hurt Wi‑Fi it would also hurt itself and be hard to sell; in practice LTE‑U remained niche and carriers moved on, which matches the “difficult product” conclusion"
"notes how a walled garden plus algorithmic filtering could prevent users from seeing what they’re missing; broadly consistent with later concerns about platform curation"
"Clear, nuanced explanation of conflicting user desires and the design space; predictions about not being able to please everyone and trade-offs around metaprogramming vs codegen held up."
"sharp separation of configuration vs build, and the desire for a very simple executor format, matches where CMake→Ninja, Meson, GN, and to some extent Bazel ended up"
"idea of loading pre‑recorded speedrun inputs on a Pi/controller is entirely feasible and in spirit with later “tool‑assisted” demos; neat, if niche, foresight"
"sharp observation that if you can detect UB at runtime, just report it — essentially describing UBSan’s model; underestimates adoption problems but conceptually right"
"right that strong type systems aid tooling and that Go and Rust would coexist with healthy ecosystems; “not competitors” is slightly overstated but directionally correct"
"right that a language doesn’t need to be created by an OS vendor to succeed in systems programming; Rust’s success confirms this. The suggestion that Rust’s fate might hinge on Servo specifically didn’t pan out, but he hedged that point."
"apt reminder that Google has a long history of goofy internal names like “SmartASS” and that internal humor and professionalism can coexist—though this case shows the risk when they leak"
"nice observation about the irony of top-down “be less hierarchical” mandates; partially undercut by the fact that, in practice, that turned out to be the only workable path"
"right that cosmology is taken as bona fide physics, but overstated its “never testable” character; the last decade massively expanded observational tests of cosmological models."
"understandable concern about long dev cycles, but the comparison to the *Duke Nukem Forever* cautionary tale is off; Kojima subsequently shipped a new AAA IP on a normal schedule"
"NASA *has* remained a political football, with direction and timelines changing with administrations; broadly right, though this was more observation than prediction"
"correct that Django is tightly coupled to SQL ORM; the implication that this alone dooms a Rethink integration is somewhat overstated, but not wildly wrong."
"points to CompCert as a “boring” compiler candidate and reports good experience; correct about its nature but overimplies parity with mainstream compilers for broad use"
"tries to reason about entropy per Unicode code point but conflates theoretical character-space size with realistic user choice distributions; technically shaky though not consequentially harmful here"
"conservative “ASCII-only, long password” approach has remained pragmatically wise given continued Unicode/keyboard edge cases, even as Unicode support improved"
"right that simpler proofs sometimes appear and that isolation is a problem; overly optimistic about eventual simplification/understandability on decade timescales"
"soberly questioned the “dismantling freedom” rhetoric and flagged the US-uses-Japan’s-military theory as something that “time will tell”—which turned out mixed rather than fully vindicating the article"
"excellent identification of moderation/scale pain and desire for better tooling, but too optimistic about an AWS-style pay model overtaking ad-driven, clickbait systems; earns “Most wrong” specifically on that business-model prediction"
"correctly emphasizes that having Google doesn’t neutralize cultural and informational environments; aligns with later evidence that structural interventions matter"
"reasonable UX observation that some communication modes tolerate high latency; email/message‑board analogy remained valid, even though mass‑market users still want instant chats"
"argued that MS’s ability to take a long-term view and its later “renaissance” were rooted in decisions made under Ballmer; this perspective has aged well"
"solid historical context on System R, DB2, and MUMPS’ key-value nature; no strong prediction, but the characterization of MUMPS’ reputation and nature holds up"
"solid point about Ballmer/Gates shareholding giving more leeway against Wall Street and Nadella lacking that, which lines up with Nadella’s more market-appeasing disclosure/strategy moves"
"nuanced take on office real‑estate cycles, mass‑transit‑adjacent redevelopment, and the slow, capital‑driven nature of change; broadly consistent with what unfolded"
"very accurate intuition that an NSA‑style backdoor would be discovered and reused by others, matching later technical analyses of the Juniper incident and the broader pattern seen with leaked NSA tools"
"correctly argued that supporting broken crypto for years to protect a small minority would stall progress; industry did in fact drop SHA‑1 and leave truly old clients behind"
"correct that Dual EC “never should have been a standard” and that its standardization had real‑world consequences; explicit claim of Juniper “cooperation with NSA” remains unproven publicly"
"fair criticism that leaving Dual_EC in after the Snowden revelations was already damning; the “three strikes” framing reflects how many experts now view that decision"
"uncritically boosted the “Pentagon lost $8.5T” framing, which later scrutiny has shown to be mostly an accounting‑controls story, not theft on that scale"
"correctly skeptical that large numbers of people would adopt a “new version” of a not‑dormant but unfashionable Perl; “slow‑moving disaster” is harsh but not far off"
"realistic recognition that many systems are probably compromised more often than we hear about; borne out by later supply‑chain and cloud compromise reports"
"skepticism about compile-to-JS due to production debugging and “write in the target language” has largely been validated by TypeScript’s dominance, even if CLJS’s source mapping works well technically"
"likely-correct diagnosis that only a small number of Gmail servers were in debug mode, matching Google’s “known issue affecting some users” explanation"
"region‑based separation for prod vs dev is less favored today than multi‑account, but the intent — stronger isolation and IAM guardrails — was correct"
"question about “can’t they hotfix over the air?” reflects a misunderstanding of how such appliances are managed; not really a prediction, but wrong on the operational model"
"strongly criticized the decision to use Dual_EC at all, even with custom keys; later work showed that design to be exactly the anchor for the backdoor"
"similarly noted dietary cholesterol’s limited role; some overstatement about research being “mostly bogus,” but directionally aligned with reproducibility concerns"
"DMS incident story is accurate and still illustrative of ventilation/system‑design failures; not predictive, but an example that aligns well with post‑2010 safety training priorities"
"correct that buying WhatsApp “made sense”; the claim that $22B was “22x what it was worth” looks overstated given WhatsApp’s subsequent strategic value"
"accurate, still‑relevant discussion of C parsing quirks and good catalog of alternative compilers; his characterizations of ACK/tcc/libfirm/vbcc have held up"
"Strong, forward-looking advice on named functions, linting, tests, and build tooling; while specific tools shifted from JSHint/Grunt to ESLint/etc., the principles aged very well."
"strongly argued against using email as a to‑do list and for using task tools instead; while many people still use email as a de facto task list, his diagnosis and prescription hold up conceptually."
"correctly explains that an internal CA will generally be respected by Chrome, including bypassing pinning, while Firefox uses a separate store; matches how corporate MITM is actually deployed"
"ethically argues for earlier disclosure when vendors are incompetent; that’s broadly aligned with the way Project Zero has pressured vendors, though the specific facts here were less dire than assumed"
"on-point about how ignoring auctions and adding Free Parking jackpots ruins pacing; highlighting the auction rule’s importance matches modern rules‑focused analyses"
"wrong about the likely short lifespan—Cloudcraft became a durable, acquired product—but right that monetizable team/sync features would be essential, which is exactly how it played out"
"strong and insightful on parametricity and Rust’s long-term potential and FFI story, but badly underestimated the real-world pull of Go’s “safer than C, less verbose than Java” proposition"
"calling a GC implementation a “one-time cost” is too optimistic; experience shows GC is a large, ongoing engineering investment, especially in multi-language runtimes"
"complains that “slide to unlock”–style UI patents violate non‑obviousness; many such patents were later knocked down or limited, validating the intuition"
"accurate, if cynical, depiction of sales/marketing overpromising and clients not being ready to test; not really predictive but rings true a decade later"
"thoughtful but non-predictive musing about whether to keep compromised devices for deception; reasonable inference that removal was safer given unknown capabilities"
"low‑carb “eating to the meter” approach to T2D lines up with later remission data, though some claims about glucose thresholds and ignoring all meds were overconfident"
"innovative self‑tracking and correct that generic carb limits don’t fit everyone, but “all meats are safe” and near‑zero‑carb as a general ideal are not supported as broadly safe long‑term strategies"
"points to early large-scale distributed training work at Amazon; correct that good scaling is possible, but underestimates ongoing difficulty behind “minibatch is hard”"
"notes YC’s work as a “next step” for vets beyond intro bootcamps; over time, more serious vet-founder programs and funds emerged; YC’s role fit that pattern."
"solid, historically grounded explanation of why Russia developed such a code, emphasizing prisoner transport and the need to signal credentials across regions"
"right about the irrelevance of matrix addition in day-to-day graphics; the exchange highlights a valid conceptual distinction, though the wording is a bit terse"
"correct that consoles have long provided API libraries and that ultra‑HLE is more effective on Nintendo‑style platforms; accurate skepticism about simple static recompilers for Xbox/PS"
"right that, at the time, high‑profile “lost the house to Candy Crush” stories were scarce; but the comparison to fine art collecting underplays very real later‑documented harms"
"the plan to binge‑watch doesn’t bear on hindsight, but interest in seeing a Feynman cameo reflects the modern focus on celebrity scientists in popular retellings"
"explicitly points out that encrypted unidirectional lossy streams are routine in satellite video and suggests AES‑CTR with periodic counters—essentially the canonical, widely adopted solution"
"right that experiments trump theory in principle and that muon‑catalyzed fusion is real, but overstated the evidence for Ni‑H LENR transmutations and “fantastic” energy densities"
"accurate characterization of marshmallow’s strengths vs other libs; Pilo itself didn’t take off, but the conceptual split they describe is now standard"
"normative stance, not fact‑testable; arguments about structural harm from long copyright terms look more, not less, relevant in the age of platform control and AI, but the extreme analogies haven’t become mainstream"
"accurate description of general patent-abuse dynamics, but wrong prediction that BoA would noticeably wield its blockchain patents to kill competition"
"underestimated Swift’s clear, durable niche on Apple platforms and overstated the universal technical superiority of Go/Rust/Python; right that it wouldn’t dominate outside the Apple ecosystem, but the “no niche” claim aged poorly"
"strong, historically grounded prediction about crime politics, drug policy, and growing intolerance for abusive policing that broadly matched the next decade"
"correctly notes the long-standing higher U.S. violent crime rates; discussion of homicide as a proxy is broadly in line with criminology, though not uncontested"
"insightful about democracy yielding punitive outcomes and the Bill of Rights as a check; perhaps too fatalistic about the inevitability of those outcomes"
"captured the reality of judicial deference to national security but overstated the framers’ supposed intent to exclude such actions from judicial review; that part aged poorly"
"assertion that foreign-terrorist surveillance now requires more process than domestic warrants is flatly contradicted by how 702 and FISA have actually worked"
"correct that mobile would grow, but badly misjudges municipal fiber as “solution looking for a problem” and overstates its impracticality; counterexamples like Chattanooga and LUS Fiber proved the opposite"
"correctly downplayed the economic importance of a 25bp move, emphasized the need for fiscal policy, and focused on exits rather than headline valuations"
"SF did get better options over time, but the broader critique that the “tech capital” couldn’t fix its own infrastructure and housing has aged reasonably well"
"correctly notes that forcing OO/FP patterns into C—or low‑level patterns into Python—tends to backfire; consistent with how both languages are taught today"
"good, still‑valid cautions about traffic analysis, future decryption, and compelled key disclosure; slightly overstates how uniquely suspicious encrypted comms look now that E2EE is common"
"tries to deflect blame from Juniper because ScreenOS came from an acquisition, overlooking that Dual_EC integration and later non-removal were very much on Juniper"
"very prescient about compiler services accessible via APIs/RPC and storing code/intermediates/deps in a database-like store; this is essentially what language servers, build caches, and remote execution systems do"
"the “10 lines per hour” claim is over-precise and not really borne out; directionally right that abstraction raises leverage, but the numeric assertion aged poorly"
"captures the ethical conflict well; the absolute claim that mass surveillance “did not help stop a SINGLE attack” remains debated rather than decisively settled"
"well‑intentioned but overly confident claim that lack of student motivation is usually a teacher failure and unreachable students are “so rare” has not aged well against a decade of evidence on poverty, trauma, and structural factors."
"on-the-ground perspective that PR/marketing is psychologically hard and labels/promoters add real value; matches the reality that DIY breakout success is rare"
"accurately described real‑world user behavior — people ignoring download bars and prompts — which is exactly why simple warning dialogs are not a complete solution"
"argued designers should just use platform WYSIWYG tools + VCS instead of a separate tool; the industry moved decisively toward tools like Figma instead"
"right about server-side rendering being costly and limiting scale; slightly dinged because Collabora Online did get some real-world traction despite that"
"notices Aaronson’s updated wording on “computationally relevant” tunneling, but slightly misremembers his earlier stance, which had already acknowledged quantum behavior while doubting speedup"
"good instincts on Twilio vs. direct SMS and sharp analysis of Smart Monitor’s Pebble rebadge; slightly undercut by later Android SMS restrictions making cloud sending more future-proof than expected"
"strong defense of the role of regulation for health, safety, and externalities; gig‑economy experience and pollution/climate policy have reinforced that perspective"
"rightly skeptical of shallow/manipulative gamification and its ability to backfire; slightly too categorical about “it won’t work,” given many examples of effective, if sometimes manipulative, gamified systems"
"correct that hostile lock‑in can be profitable in the short term; overstates how unpunished it would be—Keurig and Philips both were forced to retreat"
"reasonable discussion of coordination vs optimality and of informal hierarchies, though arguably overstates how bad distributed structures are at scale"
"Iridium flares as an engagement tool was a clever suggestion; they disappeared a few years later as the original Iridium satellites were deorbited, but that doesn’t undercut the core point"
"correct that rollout would start in benign environments like sunny US cities; over‑optimistic about road‑infrastructure adaptation and speed of mapping‑driven scaling"
"explicitly speculated that police brutality may be rare, mostly random, and perhaps media‑manufactured; that stance looks very wrong after a decade of data and video"
"the ergonomics/form-factor advice about nano vs full-size keys is exactly the sort of practical insight that held up; many users discovered this the hard way."
"articulated the desire for automated diagnosis, effectively anticipating the direction of modern observability tooling, even if the problem remains only partially solved"
"lawyer/patent fear is one real factor, though the decade showed that vendors would tolerate reverse-engineering projects without a wave of litigation"
"right that xxHash is much faster than naive CRC and that FNV is weaker, but overstated “order of magnitude” gains in this workload and “one of the best” status"
"argued it was “ridiculous” for a $300M org not to just keep developing Thunderbird as an Outlook competitor; underestimated how real the technical and strategic costs were, but was directionally right that Thunderbird could be made much better—which the later dedicated team indeed did"
"nicely articulates “expression transformations” and reordering as a neglected area; still largely true in 2025, and the RFC 4978/flush explanation is technically sound"
"citing Smedley Butler’s prewar warning about provoking Japan highlights that even in the 1930s some American elites foresaw the danger of naval maneuvers near Japan"
"accurately recalls older BL tech missteps, but skepticism that they’d provide straightforward, open access to this collection aged poorly as BL moved to IIIF and open releases"
"nuanced historical and systems perspective on space as a young discipline, and a reasonable argument that colonization is an engineering challenge rather than a mystical impossibility"
"rightly skeptical of the “science” and framed it as just a recipe; slightly too generous in equating it with other strategies given how much better modern, evidence‑based tools turned out"
"excellent enumeration of real-world investigative methods and the role of resource constraints; closely matched how law enforcement actually proceeded in the E2E era"
"rightly stresses the strength of Go’s stdlib and the value of a single, consistent concurrency/runtime story; those are still core reasons teams pick Go."
"rightly assigned responsibility to Apple for allowing an impossible-to-enter password and highlighted that they “had the power to make this impossible”"
"right that E‑Prime can force more explicit statements and extra information, but somewhat underestimates how often that extra verbosity hurts readability"
"correct that the Mac App Store UX was bad and needed attention; Schiller’s tenure did lead to a better app, so the “it’s awful” assessment aged as “it was awful, and then got fixed somewhat”"
"right that Disney initially did well by Pixar/Marvel and that prequel‑tier quality would be punished, but overconfident that “they’ll continue to be great”; post‑2019 Marvel/Star Wars wobbles show real limits"
"strong argument that effective social change often requires operating outside the fully visible status quo; clearly supported by later whistleblowing and protest movements"
"reasonable skepticism of “secret threat” justifications and emphasis that leaders can still choose pro-privacy policies, though US policy has remained fairly surveillance-friendly"
"right that depression and sleep timing are linked, but “becoming a morning person” as “overcoming depression” is an oversimplification that doesn’t fit later clinical understanding"
"recognized the practical and economic problems with “pay as you browse” and browser‑level donation suggestions; micropayments remain unsolved at scale"
"accurate report of integration pain in the early React ecosystem, especially around hot reloading; later tools like Fast Refresh and Vite addressed exactly these problems"
"right that a flourishing ecosystem of tools/transpilers helped JS, but the “we’d all be on Erlang VM if it had more transpiled languages” angle did not age well"
"good practical description of coordinate offsets and their consequences; minor technical overstatement about “random” offsets but directionally right"
"reasonable concerns about MLM/ponzi dynamics if private-stock solicitation were widely opened; later reflected in how some crypto and pseudo‑investment schemes behaved"
"right that the meeting was mostly symbolic and that long-term fights involve courts/legislation; overstated Congress/Supreme Court’s centrality relative to executive/agency behavior and vendor pushback"
"desire for international sending was on‑point; prediction that it’d be a “killer feature” for *Google* didn’t materialize, but others like Wise/Revolut essentially executed that strategy"
"asked about Google Cloud support; multi‑cloud infra‑viz became important generally, but Cloudcraft’s actual expansion seems to have prioritized AWS and Azure rather than GCP"
"insightful on identity struggles and on sociology’s gender composition; some casual “womansplaining” framing and overstatement about who worries about masculinity"
"generic but correct demand for benchmarks, code, and head‑to‑head evaluations; the lack of such evidence for Geometric Intelligence was telling in hindsight"
"excellent, durable insight: allocator choice is workload‑dependent; jemalloc vs tcmalloc is largely a wash; jemalloc’s public profile boosted by Facebook’s advocacy"
"rightly questions loose use of “startup,” which reflects an overbroad tech-culture buzzword, but that semantic issue didn’t matter much to the project’s fate"
"nicely captured why minimal toolkits tend to accrete features until they resemble bigger ones; this pattern is very visible in evolving GUIs and engines"
"distinguishes fame vs wealth: athletes/musicians more widely famous, tech founders richer. This still mostly holds, although the global celebrity of a few tech figures has narrowed the fame gap somewhat"
"accurately observed that most hiring optimizes for “no obvious weaknesses” via long, risk‑averse pipelines, not for standout strengths; that diagnosis holds up"
"strong, explicit warning not to read too much into patents and skepticism about using this patent as default NX controller; perfectly aligned with eventual reality"
"good nuance: solo work can *force* growth, and perception issues mean agencies often command higher pay than lone freelancers; both points held up very well"
"good recognition that “no silence allowed” is a broader media trope, not just a YouTube quirk; aligns with how kids’ media and later short-form video evolved"
"right that you don’t *need* strong AI for everything, but underestimates how attractive general systems would become as universal tools and how hard it would be to keep them out of critical domains"
"right that remote work would become important, but overestimates “endless” military potential for this specific form factor; the military stuck with drones, not iPad poles."
"good application of base‑rate reasoning and mental‑health considerations; aligns with the lack of new evidence for assassination and with how common persecutory narratives now are"
"strong technical grasp of Wi‑Fi vs wired capacity and realistic municipal fiber motivations; predictions about Wi‑Fi’s limits and monopoly issues aged well"
"right about the persistence of text streams on Unix, but “look outside *nix for binary APIs” aged poorly as Linux embraced structured/binary logging too"
"correct that technical compliance conditions can be enforced harshly; this has become a real problem with EM, though the comment focused narrowly on parole rather than the post‑sentence context at issue"
"valid concern about non-domain MBAs running technical orgs, but the implied dichotomy “technical ⇒ good, MBA ⇒ bad” is too black-and-white for how tech leadership actually evolved"
"security concern about giving Terminal accessibility access is understandable, but in practice this became a standard and relatively safe pattern on macOS"
"directionally right about strong Japanese privacy norms; some legal details oversimplified, but broadly consistent with the trajectory of Japanese privacy debates"
"right that public tech will lag state‑of‑the‑art and that upgrades are hard; somewhat overstates the risk that public Wi‑Fi would meaningfully deter higher‑end private deployments, which didn’t really happen"
"correct that some products are flimsy and that presentation is a big part of appeal, but calling Muji “the ultimate scam” is overstated and contradicted by sustained global loyalty and product-category bright spots"
"timeless correctness about “performance-critical code needs detail work,” but over-optimistic about PyPy as a practical best-of-both-worlds solution for numeric Python"
"good technical explanation of placeholders’ deep integration and accurately described the pain in constrained environments, but not strongly predictive"
"correct that full-planet OSM was already in reach storage-wise, and that SD-equipped devices like the N900 were ahead of their time; the lament about losing SD slots aged well"
"celebrating protocol “abuse” like RSS→IMAP and infra hacks remained representative of many practical setups; not widespread, but clever and durable ideas"
"prediction that trolls would force disabling issues as “path of least resistance” did not align with nearly a decade of continued development and contributions"
"roughly right that the Act formalized practices like threat-intel sharing and hasn’t produced its own signature scandal; somewhat too sanguine about the breadth and long-term implications of the liability and preemption language"
"the desire for an opt-out is reasonable but, in practice, meaningful opt-outs from telco-level analytics have been rare and difficult, making this more wishful than realistic"
"economically accurate: tech founders have vastly larger theoretical upside than endorsers, and subsequent years—with trillion-dollar tech valuations—have reinforced this point"
"overstated that anti-IoT skepticism is “irrational”; given the ensuing decade of insecure, privacy-invasive, often low-value IoT, skepticism aged pretty well"
"accurately notes and names the trend toward separate frontends/“compiler as a service” for IDEs and tools; this became a central pattern, especially under LSP"
"good skepticism that first‑gen cloud IDEs were underwhelming while still seeing their potential; proved right that it would take years and better tools to deliver on the promises"
"repeating “some concurrent algorithms are infeasible without GC” turned out too strong; Rust’s ecosystem now has many sophisticated concurrent structures without GC, though often with GC-like reclamation schemes"
"good parallel to Aspect-Oriented Programming and notes similar debugging/COMEFROM pitfalls, which we indeed saw in over-abstracted free-monad systems"
"notes that Babel’s loose mode produces code closer to hand-written ES5; directionally correct about trade-offs, but Babel 6/7 and newer tooling changed the landscape"
"pointing out “I’ve never played Minesweeper” inadvertently highlights a real flaw in assuming cultural familiarity with any particular game as a neutral test"
"overstates the ease of patenting broad “anything in drones/autonomous taxis” ideas; real‑world PTAB and court invalidations have made that harder than implied"
"linking to Boldrin & Levine’s “The Case Against Patents” pointed toward an argument—patents mainly support incumbents—that has only become more widely accepted in policy debates."
"argued that fixing gold’s string merging would be less work than writing a new linker; history showed that the fresh lld design paid off and gold did not evolve to displace it"
"not a prediction, but an insightful, concrete anecdote about how political narratives shape perception of even simple geometry; holds up perfectly as an illustration"
"emphasizes that builds are tools, warns against over-shaming and misusing build metrics as performance proxies; consistent with psychological-safety and “measure with care” lessons that became mainstream"
"brought real numbers on costs, correctly pushed back on Mars/Big Dig hyperbole, and sensibly said the tunnel was more likely to be completed than a personal Mars walk—which is clearly true so far"
"called it potentially “industry‑changing” and unprecedented; it was a big deal but not a singular pivot—more a strong data point in an existing trend"
"good nuance about operational load, shared hosting, and legal constraints like the Right to Be Forgotten; correctly identifies that we need better, user-controllable archiving tools."
"correct that Rust’s Cargo set a precedent for strong ecosystem-level package management; minor factual slip on “downloads built dependencies,” later corrected"
"partly acknowledges MITM risks, but still underestimates the push toward HTTPS-by-default and overestimates how “tech-savvy” users mitigate ISP and network-level shenanigans"
"correct that the interface is the primary bottleneck and that needing external tools is a UX smell; a bit pessimistic about the devs ever prioritizing UI, which they eventually did via the Steam version"
"directionally right about automation and SaaS eroding some enterprise IT roles, but significantly overestimated the speed and completeness of that change"
"correctly anticipated that Western governments would justify expanded surveillance with “everyone else does it / national security” framing, even if they didn’t explicitly cite China"
"right about early performance reality and the focus on stability first; optimistic that perf would catch up more than it has and that malleability plus async would be a big draw"
"good critique of convoluted v1; sketched a future of auto-discovered, self-connecting devices with permission prompts, similar to how modern ecosystems and OS permission models look"
"right that much of what CISA enabled was formalizing or shielding practices close to what the government already did; CISA did not radically change the surveillance landscape"
"snarky but not entirely wrong: xto6 did risk making working code slower or broken, and it never took off; the implication that “modernization” wasn’t useful, however, didn’t age as well"
"gave a technically solid and still‑accurate explanation of the inherent tradeoffs in Vuvuzela’s round/noise model and why latency isn’t trivially tunable"
"dismissed it as only “one step above dia,” which aged poorly as Cloudcraft evolved, but correctly demanded read‑only AWS import, which became central to the product"
"asks good questions about naming and the role of canvas vs JS libraries; the implied hope that canvas+non‑JS languages would displace JS frameworks didn’t really pan out"
"good articulation of SaaS trade-offs: ease of install/upgrade vs control, offline use, and risk of disappearance; those concerns were borne out across many web apps"
"Lost Fleet as an example of more realistic space combat is a fair suggestion; history didn’t elevate it to *Expanse*‑level prominence, but the core claim is fine"
"points to official docs and, more importantly, highlights the then‑in‑progress fallback directory mirrors which became a key part of Tor’s infrastructure"
"right that “open to collaboration” is a major benefit of OSS; however, the decade has also validated that many popular libs are effectively single‑author with limited collaboration, so avoiding such projects entirely would have meant missing out"
"strongly accurate identification of the big structural issues—copyright, democracy, global regulation—and the renewed techno‑utopianism; dinged slightly for prematurely burying cyberpunk"
"realistic observations on coops’ tendency to re‑create hierarchy at scale, which is consistent with later experience; nuanced and held up reasonably well"
"technical comparison of KO vs. Sensible Soccer and criticism of EA’s form-over-function approach still aligns with how many retro fans see things; no specific future prediction, but analysis aged well"
"good historical knowledge of Wirth‑influenced languages, but the key prediction—that Swift’s OS‑vendor backing gave it a better shot than Rust at replacing C in systems programming—has been falsified by Rust’s actual uptake."
"right that Canvas/WebGL are significantly more performant for heavy visualizations and that foreignObject support is weak; that distinction has only become clearer"
"right about the UX problems of long-running animations and scroll jank; but strongly and incorrectly generalizes that automatic label placement doesn’t scale beyond ~40 labels"
"some predictions about React/Relay/Flux wars and big-company incentives were partially right — Redux did win the Flux wars — but React did not “inevitably go to shit”; it remains dominant"
"defense of “fast-paced innovation” is defensible, but underestimates the long-term cost of churn and the value of stability, which the ecosystem later worked hard to reintroduce via frameworks"
"right that the intro is laden with sarcasm, but misdirected it at “ordinary” physicists and schooling rather than at cranks and bad educational experiences; the alarm about students ditching college for lone‑wolf Nobel quests didn’t really materialize."
"the wish for Art Deco didn’t become mainstream reality, but there was enough retro‑futurist/Deco flavor in niche design scenes to say the sentiment wasn’t entirely out of step"
"overgeneralized that optimized code is usually less readable; modern performance practice shows many optimizations *improve* architectures without harming clarity"
"warning about subtly broken alternative implementations is valid in principle, but we’ve seen relatively few catastrophic Git-ecosystem meltdowns from this so far"
"right that many Indians can’t afford high‑end private care; the implication that “they don’t care about people not being able to get care” was too sweeping and was partly undercut by later Indian public‑care expansions"
"linking to a critical analysis of the NYT‑style self‑help narrative around posture and mood was highly prescient, anticipating how power‑pose‑style claims would unravel in the replication crisis"
"right that there’s “no point” implementing Babai’s algorithm for practical use; somewhat overstated what the result implies about heuristic algorithms’ hard cases"
"very good on VR as a richer medium for social presence and on Facebook’s Oculus rationale; overshoots by predicting VR social comms for “the majority of people.”"
"sharp on how too much information about acquaintances and relatives can erode social lubrication; “maybe we’re supposed to have transient interactions” is increasingly echoed"
"accurate sense that a lot of institutional contemporary work is “art for artists” with weak craft, though the overall pessimism misses the parallel flourishing of other forms"
"good emphasis on simplicity, paper lists, and throwing away stale tasks; but overly doctrinaire about what a todo list “should” be and dismissive of people for whom GTD‑style thinking doesn’t fit"
"vision of democratized chip experimentation at home; still aspirational, but echoed by later MPW and open‑source silicon developments; not wrong, just ahead of practical reality"
"rightly nitpicks that asynchronicity isn’t the same thing as what many people now call parallelism, but mislabels JS’s event-loop concurrency and gets corrected; other comments are mostly opinion"
"accurately highlighted how downtown jobs plus poor transit exclude many workers with families; the subsequent remote/hybrid wave validated that tension"
"captured the assetization / Veblen-good side of the art market, but overgeneralized into “modern art is only a wealth sink” and “no way to tell good from bad,” which the subsequent decade of diverse, meaningful contemporary art undercuts"
"captured genuine enthusiasm and the real conceptual jump from C++ to dynamic languages, but the “hand grenade that will reshape future languages” prediction did not bear out"
"pointing out legitimate uses of HTTPS-intercepting proxies and that “TLS means no proxies” is oversimplified; in practice, CDNs and corporate TLS proxies did remain important"
"engages thoughtfully on rules variations and acknowledges how rarely people actually read the rulebook; matches what later became a common talking point"
"empirical measurements and realistic benchmarks; understanding that parallelism and project structure matter; no strong long‑term prediction to judge, but solid signal"
"clear on the dangers of pathologizing dissent as mental illness; links to relevant neuroscience; consistent with later concerns about psychiatric abuse"
"identifies a real, still-mostly-untapped area: automated reordering to aid compression; such utilities exist but never became a standard tar/zip feature"
"again, heavy reliance on “this looks like past scares, therefore it is one”; underestimates how unusual general‑purpose optimization over the real world is as a technology class"
"accurately characterized rarity of #DB/#AC triggers and pointed to exactly the vendor fixes and interception strategy that became the lasting solution"
"right that the FBI would lean on methods short of explicit US backdoor legislation; somewhat overconfident about constitutional barriers, but the US still has no such statute"
"correctly frames trainwrecks as a general OO issue, defends Java’s niche rationally, and anticipated that any popular language would draw similar criticism"
"flagged both the value of the commenter’s work and their critique of Telegram’s security; subsequent history supports skepticism about Telegram’s crypto design"
"personal testimony that Christianity improved life; not empirically testable at scale here but representative of many who find religion protective against despair"
"overly simplistic “more restrictions => less freedom” framing; real-world events showed permissive licenses often *failed* to preserve user freedoms downstream"
"raises the core normative question—philanthropy vs taxes—that dominates today’s “philanthrocapitalism” debate; not a prediction, but prescient in agenda‑setting"
"correctly noted the coexistence of global surplus wealth and persistent deprivation; redistribution has indeed remained politically toxic despite growing inequality"
"rightly skeptical of “only hire A players” and supportive of coaching/mentoring turning B players into A players, consistent with later management best practices"
"good instinct that “build Minesweeper in an hour” over‑rewards rushing vs thoughtful design; aligns with later criticism that many interviews test speed more than true engineering"
"correct that quantum computing includes classical computing, but this misses the nontriviality of showing undecidability under such strong physical constraints"
"highlighted NovaMin/bioactive glass, which did matter clinically for sensitivity and minor remineralization, but not to the transformative extent implied by “transhumanist every time I brush”"
"fairly credits the trader’s creativity in restructuring with Mexico; recognizes that ‘thinking from the counterparty’s perspective’ can be a real edge"
"the “brilliant but socially limited founder needs a co-author” analogy fits well; however, no such collaborator emerged and the suggestion remained hypothetical"
"recognizes real settlement problems but is overly optimistic that blockchain would be the fix; in practice, improvements came from conventional centralized upgrades and regulation, not blockchains."
"clearly calls Theranos “vaporware” with a “cult of personality founder” and predicts rapid collapse; the spirit of the prediction is almost perfectly borne out"
"right about predatory microtransaction design and special concern for marketing to children; regulators and platforms have since focused precisely there"
"generally correct that Wikipedia uses redirects extensively and is relatively robust, and that deletion is the main way a title truly disappears; still, section-anchors and notability disputes remained more painful than implied"
"practical note that Windows Alt+numpad worked fine for a non-ASCII password on XP; historically accurate, but Alt-code tricks are exactly the sort of fragile behavior that later systems tried to avoid for credentials"
"correct that most Persona issues were fixable in principle, but overestimates how much “just keep investing” would change the political/adoption dynamics"
"repeatedly nailed the economics: ISP costs are mostly fixed/peak‑driven, per‑byte charges are largely arbitrary, and early harsh caps would have strangled services like Netflix"
"valid but largely stylistic complaint about wanting raw API examples instead of a JS library; praise for Balanced’s dev UX is historically accurate but not predictive"
"the “piracy as access to culture/education in poor countries” narrative is borne out by later evidence about how legal, affordable access reduces piracy"
"desire for a better Django admin and speculation about an “admin2” foreshadowed long‑running dissatisfaction with Django admin’s UX; no admin2 yet, but the idea stayed relevant"
"right that NetApp WAFL provides strong integrity and that a good block store changes the calculus; too casual about “any filesystem” being fine, but broadly reasonable"
"technically right that fracking isn’t “new” and that 19th‑century “nodding donkey” fields are rare; undervalued how important the newer horizontal/shale implementations were as an economic and strategic shift"
"very accurate long-term framing of Ruby’s niche, strengths vs Go/Rust/Clojure/Perl 6, and the enduring value of Ruby’s “stretchiness” and metaprogramming"
"right about the difficulty of safe multi‑cloud provisioning and many early Terraform warts; but Terraform still became the dominant tool for nearly a decade, so “under no circumstances use Terraform” was overstated"
"very accurate framing of exercise as improving healthspan more than lifespan, highlighting genetic confounding and complexity that later work confirmed"
"right that similar incentive issues apply to aging, but “next to nothing on prevention” was overstated given later growth of longevity biotech plus ongoing lifestyle/public‑health work"
"very prescient analysis of forks, courts, and the limited value of decentralized consensus for regulated securities; matches how the decade played out in law and practice."
"nicely anticipated interest in generative models, variational methods, and differentiable program‑like networks; directionally aligned with current research, though still not mainstream practice"
"the “why not native controls?” question reflects a common intuition that turned out to be mostly incompatible with how modern engines work, but it usefully surfaced the issue"
"defensive of the library and frames 200 labels as a rare edge case; in practice, high-density event data is common, even if it isn’t always shown as static labels"
"rightly skeptical of “deep learning explains everything” narratives; correct that current DL architectures don’t straightforwardly equate to mind, though their fractal/CA analogy slightly underestimates DL’s eventual breadth of impact"
"seemed unaware of how tightly many language compilers/runtimes integrate with GCs; off even by 2015, and the GC–compiler integration story only deepened"
"sensible argument that a Martian colony is technically feasible with current or near‑term tech and doesn’t require full terraforming; broadly consistent with current Mars mission studies"
"right that Nix/Guix are “not what most people want” in day-to-day use and that people gravitate to boring, task-focused tools; the dream of a universal, truly language-agnostic PM remains largely unfulfilled"
"“Mind-wandering is meditation” is overbroad, but the idea that everyday wandering can be seen as meditative when noticed is not far from later mainstream messages"
"encouraging turning the curriculum into a public resource and recruitment funnel anticipates how many companies and individuals later used open educational content"
"prediction that restrictions would more likely fall on what citizens can collect than on government/companies is partly borne out in some state laws and exemptions for officials"
"data-driven point that much viaduct traffic was local/downtown access; correct on that, but the assertion that there were no surface improvements is only partially borne out—there *were* improvements, just not a full freeway"
"accurately anticipated that ES generators and especially `async/await` in mainstream JS would undercut the need for niche async-focused compile-to-JS languages"
"notes using POJOs instead of JSX for routes and SSR factoring; technically correct, but later ecosystem practice moved strongly toward component/hook-based APIs"
"argues you *can* hire with deep discussions of prior work; that’s true in some senior contexts, but evidence still supports adding work samples where possible"
"anecdotal support that “acting tall” changes how people respond; not contradicted by later evidence, but the broader mechanism is less powerful than many then believed"
"the rhetorical question “why are we patenting things that are effectively art/design ideas?” anticipates a lot of later criticism of design and UI/gameplay patents in both games and mobile apps."
"on paleo as misunderstood history: generally fair; on “looking at other apes is a poor indicator” and cooking as key human adaptation: broadly right, though some details were fuzzy"
"speculates that training on everything would lead to less recognizable, ADHD‑like results; not really how large, broad‑trained models turned out, though they do encode lots of competing features"
"“everyone knew” about surveillance underestimates how revelatory Snowden was to the broader public; only partially redeemed by acknowledging surprise at the *extent*"
"framed the event as SCM pollution similar to Operation Aurora and pointed toward signed code and supply‑chain hardening, which became central industry practices"
"correctly insists sexism is far from “overrated,” connects denial to climate‑denial psychology; slightly hand‑wavy on the “arbitrage” angle but directionally right"
"captured a problem—kids, open internet, YouTube—that the following decade spent a lot of effort trying to manage; correctly skeptical of simple DNS blacklists as a full solution"
"excellent plain-language summary of the attack and on-point about users clicking through warnings; the suspicion that spear-phishers already knew and used this vector was borne out"
"poignant aphorism on privacy vs police-state asymmetry; directionally right that universal privacy is not our present, and probably “behind us” so far"
"vision of full molecular-level models of cells remains aspirational; some progress in whole-cell models has been made, but far from routine drug pre-screening"
"correct that early Google Sheets/Docs were non-starters for many use cases; underestimates how much they’d improve while still not fully catching Excel"
"observation that more people preferred Sensible Soccer is broadly consistent with how nostalgia discourse evolved; not really a prediction but directionally correct"
"solid explanation of Verizon’s strategy of letting copper rot and comparison to railroads ditching passenger service; this is exactly how events unfolded in many markets"
"notes compiler flags like `-frandom-seed` and correctly points out packaging as a major source of nondeterminism; underestimates the total difficulty a bit but broadly right."
"correctly pushed back on “movie-plot” fears, highlighted existing private ALPR ecosystems in repo/paparazzi industries, and emphasized that simpler attack methods dominate"
"most prescient; perfectly described why minimal C toolkits rarely become serious app toolkits—i18n, accessibility, native look—and the decade since has fully borne this out"
"correct that LLVM-based toolchains can keep up with Apple and that debug info control matters; implicit bet on bitcode/LLVM IR as a long-term advantage didn’t really pay off, but not disastrously wrong"
"calling out additional underrepresented groups like Native Americans, Muslims, disabled, LGBT; directionally consistent with where diversity discourse went."
"correct that “100% fatal” is exaggerated, but downplays how dire mainstream projections actually are; hindsight has moved closer to the more serious risk framing."
"sound conceptual grasp of entropy and practical limits of de-uniquifying a browser; acknowledges flaws but keeps the right “still dangerous” conclusion"
"realistic about the impracticality of anonymous publication and the importance of author identity for accountability and historical record; also in line with increased emphasis on open, but *named*, science"
"correct that Star Citizen uses whale‑style microtransactions long before launch; broader enthusiasm for banning advertising hasn’t really materialized"
"right to be skeptical that one thoughtful journalist at BuzzFeed signaled a systemic goal of quality; later shutdown of BuzzFeed News supports that view"
"Chromecast Audio groups as a cheap Sonos alternative was exactly how many people ended up using them, even though the hardware was later discontinued"
"reasonable defense of the design as an MVP and early hint at scraping/building a broader YC product directory, which is essentially what various community‑maintained YC lists and aggregators became"
"strong, accurate explanations both for self‑synchronizing codes’ practical uses and for Knuth’s relationship with C and CWEB; everything still correct a decade later"
"correctly emphasized that fixing litigation without fixing patent issuance would not solve the software‑patent problem; 10 years later, that remains the situation."
"too absolute in saying calling is pointless for anything in the budget bill, but right that this particular item was in practice unstoppable once folded into the omnibus"
"right that we can’t *precisely* measure others’ suffering, but overstates incomparability—extreme cases *are* comparable; later data on trauma, disability, etc. reinforce that some harms are consistently worse"
"captures the real problem of constitutional rights depending on political will, but overreaches into “nothing can be fixed” fatalism that history doesn’t fully support"
"argued that a large‑state CSPRNG like ChaCha20 doesn’t *need* reseeding for quality; directionally right for many practical lifetimes, though understated the security benefits of periodic reseeding."
"accurate observations about many workloads being IO-bound, but the strong rejection of “since CPUs aren’t getting faster, faster storage helps” misses that, in practice, it did help a lot"
"right that simple Mailman archives are fast and robust; underestimated how much UX improvements like Discourse/HyperKitty would matter to many projects"
"correct that FP2 wasn’t truly modular at the SoC/radio level and lacked hard switches; but “misses the entire point of a modular device” overlooks the environmental/repair point that became central"
"correct that complexity hides unknown failure modes; but overconfident that small teams with two boxes can routinely beat AWS‑level durability and operations"
"right that there are better choices than 6502 for new designs, but “I doubt 6502s are still actively used” underestimated their continued and revived use in embedded and hobbyist contexts"
"strongly suspected a compromised toolchain; later evidence points to source-repo compromise instead; reasonable suspicion at the time but not borne out"
"well-grounded application of FTC rules and the idea that Kickstarter shifts 30-day-rule risk onto buyers; subsequent enforcement validated this framing"
"nicely foresaw the loss of classic ergonomics in the laptop era and implicitly anticipated the need to re‑emphasize it, which became very true in the WFH boom"
"for the separate, historical comment tying US militarization to gun prevalence and contrasting with UK; overall broadly right but somewhat incomplete"
"framing Wikipedia’s insistence on notability as essential to avoid becoming PR Newswire holds up in light of ongoing battles against promotional content"
"accurate nostalgia about Modula and safer systems languages; somewhat unfair characterization of Rust as “picking up where C++ left off” in complexity"
"ROM-based firmware verification is a sound model and exists in regulated environments, but mainstream PCs went further toward vendor-signed, *rewritable* flash plus secure boot instead"
"interesting historical comparison to a 79-pass COBOL compiler; calling multi-pass “desperation” doesn’t fit how multi-pass approaches have since been embraced"
"identifies cheap surplus console servers correctly; but OP’s concerns about the permanent insecurity of such end‑of‑life appliances also proved justified"
"interesting description of FrameFree and mesh-based video decomposition; but that line of tech never became mainstream or a major compression direction"
"accurate critique of lack of higher-level structure, but “another few years” to beat top pop writers was too optimistic; a decade later AI is impressive but hasn’t clearly replaced elite hitmakers"
"right that an upgradable ecosystem requires broader standards and that Ara‑style magnet modules were problematic; wrong that “indestructible” phones, not repairable ones, would be the answer"
"too pessimistic about semantic HTML’s prospects and too dismissive comparing Pandoc Markdown to HTML3; partially grounded but poorly aligned with long-term trends"
"right about fiber degradation in multiple recycles, but notably wrong in downplaying how many offices still use large amounts of internal paper, especially in key PaperLab markets"
"too trusting of the “this is just basic counterintelligence” line; later evidence of broad domestic querying and politicized use undercuts this comfort"
"labeling the author a “Darwin award applicant” overstates the prediction of doom; the author went on to have a long, productive, and increasingly safe career"
"significantly underestimates the scale of patent trolling and overstates both the demise of business-method patents via AIA and a future TPP-driven comeback that never bound the US"
"questioning PHP was reasonable from a maintainability/modern-stack perspective, though in practice the project’s fate was more about maintenance than language choice"
"Very prescient on CoffeeScript being a bad long-term bet; completely wrong on “Node and server-side JS is a fad,” which drags the grade down heavily."
"skeptical of Uber as a company but bullish on its service vs taxis; that’s more or less how the market has shaken out: widely used service, deeply controversial company"
"correctly points out that the causality runs from bad environments to bad education as well as vice versa; anticipates the now-standard “cycle of poverty and education” framing"
"defended the idea that overly specific patents should be easy to design around; that’s in line with how a healthy system *ought* to work, and with modern reform arguments."
"right that better voting systems would address deeper structural issues; approval voting itself has seen only small pilots, but the general insight holds"
"right to highlight the missing “search by permissions” feature, which remains missing; diagnosis of Google’s motives is speculative but frustration was justified"
"TPP did increase pressure toward longer terms, but “may ruin the public domain” overshot what actually happened after U.S. withdrawal and suspension of some IP clauses"
"accurately emphasizes the 4‑house strategy, house scarcity, and focusing on cheap sets with high ROI—aligned with what serious analyses and strategy guides now recommend"
"useful anecdote about a fully “open email” policy backfiring by killing email usage; consistent with current understanding that surveillance changes behavior, even if the prediction angle is limited."
"underestimated both the frequency of resume updates and the utility of multi-format outputs; the market moved in the opposite direction with lots of resume tooling"
"excellent explanation of why precedence climbing scales better than naive recursive-descent and where it shines; very aligned with subsequent practice"
"solid low-level analysis about exception delivery and triple faults; slightly over-weights the “really bad hardware bug” aspect relative to how minor its real-world impact turned out"
"correctly predicted widespread malware use of HTTPS and impact of Let’s Encrypt; but downplayed risks of HTTPS interception by saying the “only problem” was buggy TLS"
"right about the site’s technical friendliness, PDFs without DRM, and archive.org being blocked by robots; the speculation about 2005 books becoming free in 2016 did not happen"
"correct that bitstreams are reverse-engineerable and that IceStorm was a key public effort; “pretty trivial” underestimates the huge sustained effort needed for later families like ECP5 and Xilinx 7-series"
"theoretical point about constant-time access is formally correct but practically overemphasized; ends up misleading about how effective `look` actually is on real systems"
"“basically a solved problem” for overlapping instructions is overconfident in light of modern adversarial binaries; interesting anecdote but weak extrapolation"
"arachne-pnr became a core part of the open stack; his belief that compelling open tools can change the vendor calculus is partly validated by Lattice’s and QuickLogic’s openness"
"describes an industrial-strength, many-pass optimizing compiler architecture strikingly similar to later LLVM/MLIR-era practice; correctly emphasizes modularity and IR properties"
"technically right that algebra has plenty of examples, but the dismissive tone toward learners’ experience of “lack of examples” looks worse in light of how much modern pedagogy doubled down on providing more and better ones"
"sharp point about needing distinguishable variants even when payload types match, which mirrors how real-world sum-type design in Rust/ML-like languages evolved"
"spot‑on about prices failing to capture environmental externalities; moral framing ended up being quite important in driving right‑to‑repair and circular‑economy policy, somewhat contrary to critics’ expectations"
"good practical observation about Android credential storage and UX friction; not strongly predictive but reflects real trade-offs developers continued to face."
"conditional prediction that China would block OSM if it ever got traction is consistent with China’s broader behavior; not directly testable because OSM never became big in China"
"idea of tooling that retries 451 via Tor/proxies matches what some censorship-circumvention tools effectively do, though this never became mainstream browser UX"
"overconfident that FDE + passphrases make stolen‑laptop concerns moot; underestimates both user behavior and broader compromise scenarios, though not completely wrong"
"defense of very long‑horizon testability is philosophically coherent but not yet vindicated or falsified; the underlying optimism about string theory remains untested."
"noted that large and small phones could coexist; in practice, large phones won out and decent small options dwindled, so the implied “there are plenty for you” aged poorly"
"identified OS longevity, alternative OSes, and replaceable components as key; Fairphone did better than average on these, though RAM wasn’t truly upgradable"
"accurately emphasizes the real-world importance of “obscure/local” apps that were Android/iOS-only and never came to Windows Phone, a concrete manifestation of the app gap"
"the normative observation—if people scrutinized themselves as harshly as others, things would improve—is consistent with current work on self-criticism and bias"
"right that ecosystems aren’t monocultures and non‑fashionable languages can thrive in niches; over‑optimistic by implication that Perl 6 might follow that pattern"
"points to “communication filtered by corporate incentive” as inherently depressing, a line of critique that’s become more salient with algorithmic feeds"
"rightly frustrated with older progressbar libs and excited about tqdm; wanting better notebook support, which indeed arrived and became a core use case"
"insightful about code size and the connection to Haxe/OCaml; overestimates how much OCaml would be used for cross‑platform games, but not egregiously"
"clear-eyed explanation of why pure REST isn’t a great fit for most machine-to-machine APIs and why tight coupling often makes sense; this matches how most APIs are still built."
"accurate that Slack wipes out internal email inside some teams and that proprietary platforms vary in trustworthiness; underestimates how persistent email would be more broadly"
"defense and explanation of Wikipedia’s sourcing/notability processes has aged reasonably well; Wikipedia is still functioning under broadly similar rules"
"right about issues with parked domains and the desirability of keeping pre-switchover archives; broadly aligned with later changes, though not deeply developed."
"correct clarification that the fast‑tap feature is scoped to mobile-optimized layouts and certain elements, which indeed is how these optimizations evolved"
"reasonable stance that SF can posit a few impossible premises like FTL and still be “about” good physics in the rest; more a philosophy of SF than a prediction, but defensible"
"right that the company’s response looked like desperate damage control and that hype was outrunning substance; underestimates how unprecedented the fraud was"
"blanket “packing halls with MBAs means bloat and doom” is too broad; many MBA-heavy tech giants thrived, though he’s not entirely wrong for some over-MBA’d failures"
"IPFS indeed became a central content-addressed system used to mitigate some forms of link rot, even if it didn’t solve the problem for the mainstream web."
"accurate on rural collapse and the long-term rail retrenchment; “last subway ever” was too strong and has already been undercut by new urban rail projects"
"right that augmenting man would avoid fragmentation and did a nice quick demo, but in practice that path never became the main one; tldr-pages as a separate system is what actually succeeded"
"claim that Doom II’s levels are “far better” than Doom 1’s is subjective; Doom II’s reputation has stayed strong but Doom 1 E1 is still widely revered, so no clear predictive win or loss"
"directionally right that WWTPs weren’t designed for this and that source control is simpler, but factually too strong in claiming “no process” will filter microbeads"
"the criticism of the four-mile randomization as “both compromising and useless” aligns with later consensus that naive location fuzzing often fails; solid but not especially forward-looking."
"right that rising autism diagnoses reflect more than true incidence and that the study has design limitations; somewhat vague, but directionally good"
"pointed out `CWDIllegalInDllSearch` registry key; that’s still a legitimate mitigation knob, though it doesn’t solve app‑directory loading and thus not the full issue here"
"correct that the current ad ecosystem was unsustainable in its then‑form; tracking‑heavy ads did trigger a strong technical and regulatory backlash, though they haven’t fully “gone the way of spam”"
"solid point that if the theory justifies GPS for sex offenders, it would justify tracking many violent offenders; anticipates real scope‑creep problems"
"accurately pointed out that large-scale carrier location monetization was already happening in the US via companies like AirSage, matching later scandals"
"rightly mocking sites that rate `/dev/urandom` output as “weak” while accepting `P@ssword1`; still topical, though more sites now do better strength estimation"
"right that other mechanisms besides planar scaling would keep compute growing; specific “nanobots assembling 3D circuits at 10nm” hasn’t happened, but 3D packaging and crazy compute budgets did"
"right that Bayesian thinking and Pearl/Russell–Norvig are important; over‑elevates Yudkowsky as an introductory source and underestimates the value of historical/contextual philosophy"
"technically on point in noting that audio has been reconstructed from still images of grooves; recognizes X‑rays would be trickier due to different geometry"
"calling it “also known as isometric projection” is technically off; the imagery is not truly isometric though the narrow FOV approximates orthographic"
"concerned that Slack would move OSS project discussion out of searchable mailing lists into transient chats; this has in fact happened widely with Slack/Discord replacing many public lists"
"rightly concluded this deeply undermined trust in proprietary network gear and emphasized defense‑in‑depth and open‑source options — a direction many orgs later followed"
"realistic about slow politics and public attitudes, right that acknowledgment is a key step; slightly overstates “politicians are in the right and scientists are not.”"
"solid, realistic reasoning about local law‑enforcement incentives; not strongly testable but consistent with many later cases of “closed as suicide” under suspicious circumstances"
"good intuition about blocks backfiring by pushing users to different platforms, though underestimates how compliant Telegram would later become under pressure"
"correct instinct that Tor would remain politically contentious and continue to be indirectly supported by the USG; overestimates the degree to which Tor itself would be a central courtroom battleground"
"reasonable idea that React+Redux fits Drupal’s modularity; React did become dominant in the ecosystem, but Drupal core never standardized on it the way suggested"
"right to suspect Juniper might have its own “e” and to question their PR, but the NetScreen/Fortinet/Palo Alto inheritance suspicion hasn’t been borne out"
"minimized concerns about HTTPS interception, arguing users shouldn’t really care if they already trust AV; hindsight shows both security and privacy harms from that model"
"insightful about using device identifiers for investigations; real‑world practice ended up focusing more on Wi‑Fi/Bluetooth/CSLI than homeowner IMSI capture"
"very early articulation of the security/supply-chain risks of build systems downloading dependencies implicitly; the following decade strongly validated this concern"
"technically right that there are formal accounts of induction; but defense of Yudkowsky/rationalism downplays serious methodological and sociological problems that became clearer over time"
"confidently asserted murder by police, predicted a fraudulent suicide ruling, and treated tweets as conclusive forensic evidence; the official suicide finding and lack of evidence for homicide or cover‑up contradict this almost point by point"
"good emphasis on data-miners as the everyday threat and on the importance of user control over social data; this view largely matched where mainstream privacy concerns went."
"skeptical of incentive explanations for incumbents and claimed the thread lacked content; real‑world outcomes and this very retrospective suggest otherwise"
"accurately anticipated deep learning + big data becoming the default and rightly skeptical of vague “better than deep learning” claims without benchmarks"
"overconfidently frames Bostrom as a charlatan and AI‑risk as essentially indistinguishable from religious doomsaying; events since 2015 have strongly vindicated taking Bostrom‑style concerns seriously, even if exact doom scenarios remain unproven"
"underestimated the complexity and seriousness of likeness and publicity rights; subsequent laws, contracts, and industry behavior show this was not simple “fair use” territory"
"strong grasp of 51% attack incentives and mining economics; but underestimates regulatory/political attack vectors and overstates Bitcoin’s eventual dominance"
"partly right that the Fed has private shareholders, but the “not a government agency” framing is misleading and obscures how public the institution is"
"accurately notes that much med‑device software is poor, reinforcing the idea that big‑tech software may actually be relatively good in safety contexts."
"tele‑operated robot entertainers/caterers remain a fringe/performance‑art idea; some parallels exist in themed entertainment and robot‑staffed restaurants, but not as a big distinct business."
"good grasp of political “football” dynamics and long‑term value of human‑spaceflight R&D; speculative “cities in space” still unproven but aligned with current planning"
"strong command of military history and Japanese politics; skepticism about easy counterfactuals and peace‑settlement fantasies remains well‑supported"
"largely correct that post‑*Heller*/*McDonald* the Court would be reluctant to revisit core 2A holdings; later cases like *Bruen* reinforced, rather than weakened, that line"
"offered nuanced firearms/ballistics background; the suggestion that *less* gun control in big blue states might improve police behavior remains speculative and untested"
"“people would pay GOOD MONEY” for link-monitoring/archiving as a service is broadly supported by the growth of SEO/link-health SaaS and legal/academic services like Perma.cc"
"concept of a monthly budget distributed by usage is sound and has reappeared many times; underestimated the implementation and adoption hurdles but saw the direction"
"argument that preemptive multitasking isn’t a good idea on Z80 looks overly pessimistic in light of how usable SymbOS proved on expanded, faster Z80 hardware like the Spectrum Next"
"normative pushback on “maximize financial rewards for our kind”; not clearly confirmed or falsified by events, but raises a still-relevant ethical concern"
"right that abandoning static types wholesale is throwing out the baby with the bathwater; correctly anticipates the importance of richer type systems"
"right that TV news can induce and maintain stress, but in hindsight underestimates the far larger role that social media and constant online feeds would play in stress contagion"
"idealistic expectation that modern frameworks should just run in modern browsers; in practice, the build-step + transpile world became the norm, and “works raw in all modern browsers” is no longer a baseline assumption"
"fair attempt to steelman Google’s position and predict adjustments via opt-outs; FTC outcome was weaker than implied, but the “Google will argue telemetry / diagnostics” framing was spot on"
"Google Glass itself flopped, but the core idea—egocentric, continuous data collection for training human‑like models—is now pursued through other devices and datasets"
"argues that progress in interstellar travel requires iterative experimentation, including with humans; consistent with how ISS‑derived know‑how is now baked into Mars and deep‑space planning"
"raised the “why not other ports?” question; didn’t fully engage with the hostname/port security model, but it’s a reasonable confusion rather than a strong prediction"
"right about performance issues with Vim’s plugin model and hoping NeoVim would help, but also tied to MonoDevelop, which later largely faded from prominence"
"correct within a narrow pro‑services niche but made broad claims about transparency causing commoditization and clients liking no‑price‑up‑front that have been undermined by the subsequent success of transparent, PLG‑driven SaaS"
"intuition that it feels “wasteful” to burn large resources to mine something only mildly useful has held up as the core political/environmental critique of PoW"
"technically correct that replacing coal with nuclear would slash emissions quickly; misjudges the political and institutional obstacles that prevented this path from being widely adopted."
"correct that CA misbehavior is a deep problem and that CT/pinning‑type ideas matter; too dismissive of SHA‑1’s practical risk, which materialized quickly"
"gift cards definitely *are* what many people buy when they’re out of ideas, but they’ve remained a massive and widely accepted part of gift culture, and they routinely show up in gift guides"
"insightful civil‑jury anecdote showing “somebody has to pay” reasoning; subsequent tort‑reform and empirical work on juries largely support the concern"
"conceptual point that people can support migrants’ rights while opposing trafficking is sound; more philosophical than predictive but still holds up."
"good meta-judgment that the article is “pretty spot on instead” and a useful pointer to encode.ru; encode.ru indeed stayed a central hub for compression experts"
"correct about software duplication in theory but underestimates hardware, safety, and regulatory costs; too quick to assume near-universal self-driving"
"idea of using purely functional data structures + AST interpreter for incremental behavior aligns well with later incremental / self-adjusting computation work"
"directionally right that AirSage covers massive swathes of US carrier data, but “for the entire USA for all time” is overstated and not literally accurate"
"vision of mandatory public ASTs and AST‑based refactoring history has not materialized widely; some languages expose ASTs, but VCS and most tooling are still text/patch oriented"
"concern about non-NVIDIA GPUs; CPU support existed, but GPU acceleration for non-NVIDIA remained very limited—concern was valid but not framed as a prediction"
"accurately noticed a public information blackout; later Waymo disclosures showed heavy behind‑the‑scenes work, but that secrecy made public progress hard to judge."
"accurately anticipated that the lawsuits’ real purpose was to drag shady accounting into the open; the industry did face serious scrutiny and ultimately structural reforms like the MMA"
"right that moving Pi/BeagleBone to mainline-ish kernels was a turning point, but reality later showed that many other boards remained stuck with ugly vendor kernels"
"historically accurate about prior AI investment “catastrophes” and broadly right that big data enabled more ideas to be practically explored; somewhat generic but basically correct"
"linking car-centric urban design to noise and contrasting it with denser, more pedestrian-oriented cores anticipated later mainstream urbanist debates"
"correct warning that elevating untestable arguments to “a new kind of evidence” is dangerous, but the claim that this would mean “science dies” is overstated; in practice the field stayed more cautious than the worst fears."
"good technical analysis of JSON↔POJO overhead and realistic about performance; also wanted a non-blocking API, which in hindsight was the right direction."
"rightly identifies toxic resentment as the wrong reaction to others having better work conditions; more cultural than predictive but aligned with where norms moved"
"strong and correct emphasis on economies of scale in distribution and platform reuse; but the claim that diseconomies are just design failure and not inherent to software/knowledge work is too strong in light of a decade of evidence."
"articulated the core unresolved tension around emergency access vs. strong crypto with good nuance; accurately reflects where the debate remains stuck"
"subjective take that Scala has nicer syntax/feature set than Erlang/Elixir; Scala remained powerful but also remained “bloated” and often painful to compile—exactly the complaint others raised"
"correctly intuits that exposing corporate linkages is politically sensitive and potentially disruptive, which later scandals and policy battles over beneficial ownership data confirmed"
"valid concern about lack of MFA at the time, which Mozilla later addressed, but the initial “Firefox literally knows everything about me” is wrong about the architecture"
"very clear, early articulation of “database as spreadsheet for ops” and interim tooling, which aligns strongly with later Airtable/Retool‑style trends"
"good intuition about competition with Alooma and desire to consolidate analytics stacks; but future events—Alooma’s acquisition and limited multi-cloud role—meant it didn’t become the universal backbone suggested"
"suggestion to build on lobste.rs codebase anticipated the benefits of reusing a battle-tested open-source community engine, though Open Hunt never capitalized on it"
"right that mobile is a natural fit for review, but underestimated how central desktop would remain for creation and how well Anki’s hybrid model would hold up"
"right about scientific binaries being painful and numpy builds being ugly; too optimistic in calling deployment “solved” by Docker, which history showed was far from settled"
"good instinct that a strong type system would help manage pass invariants—borne out by compilers written in Rust, Haskell, Scala, etc.; “non-Turing-complete type systems are very limited” is debatable but not clearly falsified"
"“mission hasn’t changed” overstates things, but the point that some airframes stop needing constant redesign is strongly validated by B‑52/C‑130 longevity"
"useful pointer to Eclipse Phase and hard‑SF treatment of Venus aerostats; neutral scientifically but on‑theme with where the field’s imagination went"
"pushes back on excess capacity assumptions; the question remains partly unresolved, but AV deployments so far haven’t demonstrated dramatic capacity gains."
"right that open standards aren’t automatically patent-safe and that trolls can attack any popular tech; specific prediction of patent trolling around Wasm hasn’t visibly materialized yet"
"correct that you can get high‑level expressiveness with near‑native speed on the JVM, but Scala never became a mainstream scientific‑computing language the way Python did"
"funny language jokes and right about constructors being preferable, but the “DI is even worse than setters” claim aged poorly as DI became the recommended pattern"
"correct that Rust was immature in 2015 and would become viable for web; calling it “manual memory management” with inherent overhead mischaracterized what ended up being one of Rust’s strengths"
"treated network gear as outside the security boundary and minimized the threat; the whole incident — and later attacks — illustrated exactly why that view is unsafe"
"very early, clear articulation of the need for declarative, publication-quality diagram tools that later emerged as Mermaid/PlantUML-style ecosystems"
"excellent appreciation of x86 complexity, state‑space explosion, and especially the future role of Z3/SMT + IDA plugins in deobfuscation; aged very well"
"correctly spotted that the API was not true graph traversal and that alternative APIs already answered many “fast questions”; speculation about deep personalization for the public API was over-strong but generally consistent with where Google Search went"
"right that higher-level visualizations were lacking at the time, but overstates how “intuitive” many classical topics are and underestimates the continuing value of tools like Mathlets"
"correct on limits of 3D‑printed precision equipment and materials, but underestimated how central 3D printing and open labware would become as everyday lab infrastructure and in open hardware projects"
"right that retail speculation was already a problem and that E‑Trade‑style access can be harmful; wrong or overoptimistic in expecting Bloomberg’s “reign of terror” to end—Bloomberg remains dominant"
"overconfident about appliances like Barracuda surely catching this and about “critical environments” being unaffected; later evidence shows such optimism was misplaced"
"correct about fear‑mongering around nuclear and about lifestyle changes being far smaller lever than structural policy; cautious and broadly aligned with later thinking."
"summary “deep learning can't generalize to novel inferences as well as probabilistic programming” hasn’t borne out broadly; probabilistic programming remains niche while scaled deep nets handle many “novel inference” tasks"
"normative critique of capitalism vs socialism rather than predictions; some rhetoric hasn’t been borne out but the basic “capitalism kills too” framing remains part of mainstream debate"
"right that if people took climate risk seriously, nuclear would get more support; empirically, climate concern rose but nuclear support only modestly so, so this “if…then” hasn’t fully held."
"the “one child policy is greener” quip reflects real population‑vs‑consumption tradeoffs but is overly reductive and detached from how climate policy has actually evolved"
"correct about Raspbian “bloat” for headless use, but recommending Ubuntu Server 14.04 for Pi Zero ignored ARMv6 limitations and did not reflect where the ecosystem went"
"asserts “most doctors can cook and give good advice already,” which underestimates both the nutrition‑training gap and real‑world counseling problems"
"right that compatibility for 1.x is core, and Go 2 would be the place to break it; Go instead chose to keep compatibility and fold big features into 1.x"
"good nuance about FNV vs xxHash, small vs long keys; suggestion to migrate to CRC32C was directionally aligned with industry, though not necessarily justified for Fastmail then"
"right about rising anti‑immigrant rhetoric and structural barriers for non‑EU/US devs; some of the normative “I’d love for EU/US to be more anti‑immigrant” part aged poorly"
"right that much of the NYT article was shallow/over‑snarky and that LRS‑B was coming; some nitpicks on historical programs are fair, others are overly dismissive"
"snarky but factually right about Google’s interest in bio labs and artificial skin; that work did exist and fit into Verily’s broader experimentation"
"technically accurate explanation that 1950s tech could not build a modern microchip even with today’s knowledge, due to tooling, process, and design complexity"
"writes off “Erlang style” as too bizarre and chooses Scala/Play instead; plenty of people ended up deciding the opposite, but this is more taste than prediction"
"solid explanation of why US antitrust law treated Microsoft and Apple differently; largely borne out until the EU’s DMA started changing things in Europe"
"the “Git Internet” idea foreshadows modern versioning/archiving efforts; technically and legally hard, but directionally aligned with later IPFS/Webrecorder thinking"
"it was already well‑established that non‑US citizens can be extradited for crimes with substantial US nexus; “puzzled how” reflects lack of awareness more than insight"
"claim that artists must become scientifically literate or become obsolete hasn’t really played out; some do, many don’t, and both kinds continue to matter"
"expresses frustration that no Windows AV seems good; arguably overstated given Defender’s later improvement, but directionally aligned with skepticism of third-party AV"
"good technical explanation of LTE spectrum constraints and why unlicensed Wi‑Fi is attractive in dense urban areas; broadly aligned with how operators and cities evolved offload strategies"
"correct that cloud suites would become the main market; wrong in declaring the offline suite market “irrelevant” and in underestimating the durability of desktop Office"
"right that ad-tech tends to pay well and that this wasn’t a stellar exit; slightly at odds with evidence that *this* company may not have paid top-of-market"
"solid “two engineers, not one” point and early skepticism that Jack would truly reopen the ecosystem; correct directionally, though still somewhat hopeful at the time"
"ethically sound concern about unsolicited faxes; didn’t quite distinguish between small-scale art spam and mass commercial spam, but the core worry remains valid"
"asserted that truly altruistic giving back is impossible because we always act in our own interest; philosophically debatable and not especially illuminating in this context"
"right that microgravity is uniquely valuable for certain experiments, but downplays that artificial gravity research is itself something we *can’t* do on Earth"
"correctly described Fusion 360’s generous small-business revenue cap at the time; those specifics later changed, but the depiction was accurate for several years"
"sensible point that you don’t reuse the exact same backdoor across many products; consistent with what we’ve seen in this case and in later nation-state toolkits"
"correct that tools like this help people understand TensorFlow; no predictions to be judged, but reaction aligned with how such tools are actually used—learning and prototyping"
"right that Node’s single-threaded model pushes heavy work to native modules; though Node later added worker threads and WASM, the pattern still holds"
"defended auto-language-from-system as best practice and framed mismatches as rare edge cases; later UX trends emphasized explicit language choice and multi-language support more than his stance"
"intuition that it’s “wonderful when honest people are vindicated” matches regulators largely backing the whistleblower, though Burris’s personal outcome was mixed"
"strong argument for flexible schedules and against universal early starts; later remote‑work shifts vindicated this socially, if not universally in policy"
"right that capitalism favors frequent upgrades and that Fairphone would struggle to be mainstream; somewhat too pessimistic about the company’s survival, but it did remain niche"
"historical points about US foreign policy are valid, but the specific forward‑looking claims about Libya and “directly funded ISIS” have not been borne out by evidence so far"
"right that humans aren’t literally doing full game-tree search; speculation about future general-purpose pattern matching was roughly on the mark with modern deep nets"
"overconfident assumption that using LINQ/Entity essentially “solves” SQLi; real-world practice over the next decade showed ORMs reduce but do not eliminate injection risk"
"Apple‑is‑losing‑its‑design‑edge and “mobile computing dark ages” take looks overstated given Apple’s subsequent technical/design trajectory and market success"
"rightly points out that some cited attacks rely on source routing / on-path capabilities, distinguishing them from pure off-path brute force; still within the same broad class but a fair nuance"
"right that many parents live in auto‑oriented suburbs their kids no longer want; the subsequent suburban “return” under remote work complicates the narrative but doesn’t erase it"
"correct about the UML-heavy enterprise stereotype, but “architect only makes sense in enterprise Java/.NET OOP projects” did not age well given cloud/data/platform architecture roles"
"advice to avoid x86 initially and use simpler ISAs like MIPS/68000 is pedagogically sound; in hindsight RISC‑V, not MIPS, became the “simple RISC,” but the underlying idea aged well"
"calling the article something that “should not have been written” is a value judgment, but in hindsight the harm vs. insight balance is legitimately debatable"
"sharp explanation of why a free walled garden is different from AOL’s discs and an early, accurate characterization of Facebook’s strategy as a bid for gatekeeper power"
"right that some GA4GH groups lean on RDF and that semantic‑web‑like ideas matter, but overconfident about semantic web being the only viable route and too dismissive of GA4GH’s eventual impact"
"right that many people struggle with man-page navigation and that alternatives like bropages/tldr are valuable; overestimated bropages’ staying power relative to tldr-pages"
"healthy pushback on inevitability claims and overconfident “it will take over the world” narratives; perhaps underestimates how fast general capabilities would advance"
"right that Node + epoll is a great fit for WS, but “web sockets really aren’t that hard” understates the real complexity that later led to the popularity of higher‑level frameworks and careful ops patterns"
"correctly objects that this pattern is unlikely to be sheer bad luck and pushes for more substantive causes; broadly matches what later research confirmed"
"correctly flagged red flags around secrecy, scientific vacuity, and investor credulity; harsh but directionally right about Balwani’s lack of lab/science grounding"
"cautious skepticism about Witcher 2 on PS4 Linux due to AMD driver quality was reasonable at the time; later community drivers made it more viable than implied, but the caution wasn’t wildly off"
"wrong about 24/7 nuclear bomber patrols lasting into the 2000s; later comments about nukes on subs vs planes are more reasonable but don’t rescue the factual error"
"nice distinction between curative vs palliative treatments and the role of natural history in mild/self-limiting conditions; roughly correct but a bit fuzzy in framing"
"Ragel mention is technically correct; however, Ragel didn’t become mainstream for Rust/D lexers, and v7 remained “not-quite-released” for a very long time"
"sharp, durable evaluation of Dawid’s three arguments; the community largely converged on dismissing #1–2 and taking #3 as the only genuinely interesting one."
"captures a real aspiration about the abc conjecture; the fact that we *still* don’t have a simple “Dr. Seuss abc proof” underlines how hard abc remains"
"claim that “a NN requires negatives” and that training on “everything” as positive yields just the input image is clearly wrong in light of autoencoders, self‑supervised learning, and modern generative models"
"intuition that branding this as “slavery”/“modern slavery” would gain traction was largely borne out in public discourse, though debates over terminology and overreach remain."
"correct that Big Tech comp dominates freelancing on raw earning power, but too glib about how easy it is to get into Google and undersells freelance/remote flexibility"
"clearly articulates the robots.txt vs archiving problem and anticipates both the later policy direction at the Archive and the broader preservation consensus."
"claim that jQuery from Google’s CDN would usually be faster because it’s already cached was mostly undermined by later evidence on cache fragmentation and version sprawl"
"valid subjective complaint about slippery physics, but in hindsight that’s an intentional design choice that largely stayed; no real predictive content"
"rightly skeptical of un-sourced stats and “feel-good” papers, but “all of social science is sketchy” is too sweeping in light of mixed replication outcomes"
"proposes a strategy—match PS4/XB1 specs a year later—that Nintendo wisely didn’t follow; not a prediction but bad in hindsight compared to the Switch path"
"prescient remark about familiarity shaping what we call “pseudocode” vs “math notation,” which fits the later rise of code-as-notation and the coexistence of both styles"
"noted that the “Dark Ages” framing is very Christian-Europe-centric and that Islamic societies did relatively well by some “modernity” metrics—largely in line with mainstream scholarship"
"right that resume aesthetics are partly faddish and that content matters more; somewhat underestimates the effect of ATS and standardized application funnels, which did change the game"
"claimed HTTPS monitoring by AV “should be a non-issue” and that the “only real problem” was cert validation; later work showed HTTPS interception itself is systematically risky, and Avast’s later data-collection scandal disproved the “non-issue” framing"
"right that 80s kids’ films mixed darkness and sincerity in ways rare in big modern studio fare; somewhat underestimates later works like *Coco*, *Spider‑Verse*, and *Andor* that did push boundaries"
"the idea of “useful work” PoW is appealing and has been explored repeatedly; but the security issues called out by others in the thread have largely stymied it in practice"
"good articulation of the idea that the *semantic* type, not the underlying representation, is what matters—very much in line with how generics-era Go is written"
"right about alternative pipelines like bootcamps and apprenticeship-style models becoming more important; off in implying that short, disaster-style medical training is a close analogue for professional reshaping"
"right that HoloLens wouldn’t lead a mass‑consumer AR revolution and that timing/society weren’t ready, though Microsoft’s culture did evolve more than they allowed"
"right that being the lone dial‑in on a speakerphone with many in‑room people is bad; that’s now well known. But telepresence robots did not become the fix."
"praise for Dolphin’s management and UX was spot‑on; skepticism about RetroArch’s usability also held up, though RA did become more central than “just a hope”"
"reasonable sizing of the attack; “not that impressive” looks increasingly true as DDoS scales, though the nuance about *valid* queries being harder to filter could have been stronger"
"correct that only very large, stable economies can realistically supply an external currency at scale; USD remains a logical choice for countries like Cambodia"
"correctly emphasized incremental compilation as foundational for live programming; slight overstatement about “trivial” Smalltalk incremental compilation, but directionally on point"
"right that CP didn’t become a mainstream general-purpose paradigm, but clearly wrong in suggesting the field “tapered off” and about its scalability trajectory"
"usefully cites lcamtuf’s earlier analysis that brute forcing 32-bit ISNs would eventually be feasible; more of a pointer than a prediction, but good context"
"persistent but misplaced claim that Google broke its policy and irresponsibly dropped a 0‑day; later clarifications show the disclosed XSS was not directly exploitable and policy was followed—though the user‑harm concern itself was a legitimate question"
"strong, prescient recommendations for Software Foundations, Concrete Semantics, and Isabelle pedagogy, but significantly wrong about the role and capabilities of model checking."
"anecdotes about transformative assistive tech for disability anticipated the broader accessibility role smart devices would play, though not a concrete prediction"
"on solid ground that high‑end console titles often diverge from a naive “PC‑like” abstraction; a bit too dismissive about the feasibility of higher‑level emulation/abstraction over time"
"incorrect assumption about darktable’s explicit goal as “a LR replacement” and overly pessimistic view on the feasibility and timeline of a Windows port"
"good analogy to OS/2’s “Better Windows than Windows” and the risk that Android compatibility kills native incentives; this logic aligns with why Astoria was likely killed"
"right about the cost and lack of incentives for upstreaming; old vendor kernels are still widespread, though the kernel community did make more headway than this implies"
"reasonably accurate intuition that cutting cruft/targets helps speed; their view of MIPS as second‑class in the long run ended up closer to reality than the pushback suggested"
"argued that Juniper’s willingness to audit and disclose might ultimately make them more trustworthy than vendors who never surface such issues; not provably right, but not wrong either, and consistent with how the market ultimately treated Juniper"
"the “if you can’t prove the crime, get them on taxes” heuristic is historically valid, but it mischaracterizes this specific case, which wasn’t primarily a tax‑evasion bust"
"right about environmental issues of hydro and mentioned drought risk when prompted, but “will be keeping renewables from ever truly replacing fossil energy” has aged poorly in light of rapid progress"
"incorrect claim that oil consumption was already shrinking due to renewables; long‑term EV/hydrogen vision might still prove right, but near‑term assessment was off"
"realistic critique of the footprint and reliability problems of solar cooking and a fair point about wood’s renewability vs fossil fuels, albeit with some missing nuance on deforestation and black carbon"
"right that labels’ biggest value-add is in shaping, timing, and marketing artists rather than physical distribution; that function remained core as the industry moved toward playlist culture"
"right that small, remote platforms are often more efficiently serviced by air; slightly overstates Tromelin’s role as an emergency landing zone for airliners"
"historical point about export‑grade crypto is valid; implication that similar schemes are a realistic modern template is less convincing, but not wildly off"
"right to worry about jurisdiction and existential legal pressure; Tor has not faced a Lavabit-style public shutdown, but the value of internationalized leadership and legal caution has become widely accepted"
"rightly notes pre-telecom surveillance and non-corporate spying; underplays how essential corporate cooperation and telecom centralization became to modern mass surveillance"
"right that “dark web” is an overused, vague term; wrong in asserting that most hidden services are indexed/public and in expecting the terminological cleanup to catch on outside niche communities"
"correct that trees are renewable and that lifecycle comparison is complex, but overconfident dismissal of environmental benefit and talk of inevitable “toxic sludge” did not match subsequent reality"
"ethical discomfort is understandable, but claims about trees being “caged and starved of resources” are inconsistent with how high-end bonsai health and care actually turned out to be understood and presented"
"built an ambitious project and was honest about what was actually Haskell-inspired; no strong predictions, but the work itself is an interesting historical artifact"
"recognizes and implements memoized recursive descent with left recursion hints; aligns well with later mainstream approaches like PEG+left-recursion handling and ANTLR4-style transformations"
"historical analysis of the war on drugs as a tool of racial oppression aligns with mainstream scholarship, though the “you need victimless crimes or you can’t mass‑frame people” claim is more debatable"
"overstates music as “most valuable contribution to the universe” but correctly senses that recorded copyright isn’t the only plausible economic model; largely philosophical rather than predictive"
"the user-experience complaint about `npm install` errors was very real; while some causes were “by design” like optionalDependencies, npm has since improved, but install still isn’t as silent as, say, `apt` for many users"
"correctly identified that the article’s art-and-story-informed design thinking generalizes to all physical games; that framing has only grown more central"
"correct in appreciating ADEPT’s appeal and pointing out the bootstrapping nature of “nothing uses tau, so don’t teach tau,” though that didn’t translate into tau adoption in practice."
"not wrong that many things improve over time, but the assertion that our “biggest problems” are Coke and vacations turned out to be glaringly off relative to COVID, war, climate, and democratic erosion"
"valid criticism of poor product photography and generic clip art; in the years that followed, DTC brands dramatically upped their visual/brand game, implicitly validating that this stuff matters"
"identifies the root symptom—poor EXAMPLES sections—and proposes integrating examples into man; technically sensible but did not align with how things actually evolved"
"historical numbers on US astronaut flights after Shuttle retirement were accurate; implied scarcity of crewed flights looked less enduring after Crew Dragon began frequent launches, but he wasn’t really making a future prediction"
"right about cyclicality and eventual correction; wrong in predicting the high salary regime “won’t last”—it lasted and grew for ~6 years before a partial correction, and even post‑bust levels remain very high"
"correct about gene therapy being explored for serious retinal disease, but very overoptimistic linear extrapolation to near‑term tetrachromacy/UV/IR supersoldiers which did not materialise"
"fair characterization of Whisper Systems prioritizing “good enough” for mass users over theoretical perfection; a bit hand‑wavy but directionally right"
"fair skepticism about blanket claims on dam lifetimes; pointing to Hoover and long‑lived European dams fits the later understanding that structure vs sediment are distinct issues"
"right that iOS would remain the go‑to for mobile musicians and that Android/MS would never truly catch up in that niche, though Android did make more progress than “little to no point” suggests"
"correctly skeptical that “willful infringement” mega-penalties would stick; right that the outcome would be more like modest per-artist checks plus some accounting sunlight"
"rightly argues that serious conceptual issues often only surface during implementation and that specs in plain English are too loose; this view underpins later popularity of structured modeling and DDD"
"captures the genuine deployment confusion of the time and points to Phoenix docs; with hindsight, that was a transitional moment before Elixir’s release tooling improved"
"correct that Go’s baked‑in concurrency model was more opinionated at the time; less prescient because Swift later added structured concurrency and actors, effectively “choosing” a model"
"vivid case study of dysfunctional process and lack of professional leverage; not so much predictive as an evergreen example of a pattern that persisted"
"nuanced view: recognizes qualitative difference between book and website but still concludes her claim is invalid; that’s almost exactly how courts have continued to balance RTBF for public figures"
"the accusation that saurik was just “bagging on” apt missed that his criticisms were both detailed and partially adopted upstream; reality showed that thoughtful external critique *can* help drive improvements."
"hope that public access to ALPR would “level the playing field” has not panned out; tech overwhelmingly entrenched institutional surveillance instead"
"argued effort should go to desktop packaging instead of making browsers more OS-like; history went the opposite way, with browsers and wasm gaining power while desktop packaging remained fragmented"
"labels Ericsson as “trolling” and calls several patents bogus without engaging with SEP context; misses that Ericsson is a practicing entity whose SEPs are widely licensed"
"accurate on income potential with strong biz dev and the difficulty of scaling; slightly dated assumption about onsite being mandatory but still directionally right for the time"
"the conjecture that Microsoft might open source Windows before ReactOS caught up didn’t materialize at all—Windows remains closed and ReactOS still hasn’t “caught up” even to its original target"
"some valid critiques of corporate capture and “free trade,” but occasionally drifts into absolutist anti‑democracy rhetoric that hasn’t borne out in a useful predictive sense"
"right that MM’s no-tax, no-friction assumptions are unrealistic, but dismissing the theorem as “complete nonsense” misses its ongoing foundational role in corporate finance"
"overconfident prediction of a DMCA/GitHub takedown that never happened; some correct notes about trademark vs copyright but overshadowed by the wrong forecast"
"often overly reductionist, but broadly right that low male income predicts divorce and that men face strong economic‑provider pressure; wrong that men “just” work for food rather than identity as well"
"similar Objectivist optimism; interesting as sociology of ideas but without observable impact on the actual trajectory of physics or philosophy of science debates."
"skeptical that Ruby devs’ enthusiasm is for deep reasons rather than syntax; in hindsight, many migrated for OTP/concurrency/perf, so this underestimates them somewhat"
"ahead of the curve in pushing Venus aerostats and long‑term Venus settlement; underestimates acid‑cloud and energy problems, but broadly aligned with later serious “cloud city” discussions"
"insisting all “guessable” secret resources should be 403 rather than 404; in practice, 404-for-hidden remains a common and standards-permitted pattern to avoid information leaks"
"fair defense of proprietary licensing in the abstract, but underestimated the power of open ecosystems and how quickly open stacks would become “good enough” to undercut closed scientific tools"
"cautious about using Slack for highly regulated work and notes customers would “flip” if sensitive design talk lived there; many such orgs did in fact insist on stricter controls or self‑hosted tools"
"suggested OS‑level behavior of preventing running installers directly from Downloads and instead copying to temp/sandboxing; not adopted globally, but it matches patterns used by some managed environments"
"right that reliability issues are often infrastructure‑related and that other high‑renewable countries don’t inherently suffer outages, though underplays the importance of interconnections"
"the “selling the country off to China” phrasing is exaggerated, but the idea of elites monetizing the country’s assets and planning for comfortable exits has some resonance in later reporting"
"raises a valid equity concern about electricity costs vs income, but the specific cost comparisons and implication that renewables uniquely burden Costa Ricans are too simplistic"
"intuition that this was a fairly standard extortion/raiding setup by local law‑enforcement+judge types was broadly on target, though details weren’t known"
"historically accurate description of strict insignia rules in classic *vory* culture, but framed as if still uniformly and strongly enforced across Russian prisons in the 2010s, which hasn’t held up"
"right that there are many ways to draw a slider and that Corel’s UI looked extremely close to Office; too quick to dismiss the broader damages concern"
"asked about portfolio‑construction tools and hedge‑fund‑style strategy replication; those features and educational tools became common across various platforms, including backtesting/portfolio products that use Tiingo‑like data"
"skepticism about SSGs being opinionated and the temptation to roll your own was borne out by the huge proliferation of generators; but mainstream adoption of Jekyll/Hugo/Gatsby/Next shows you *can* get a lot of mileage from existing ones"
"right that harvesting from the atmosphere is attractive and that there are “plenty of reasons to go to Venus”; matches the later science‑driven resurgence in Venus interest"
"broadly right about epidemic disease devastation; specifically wrong in implying malaria was introduced by Europeans—evidence now indicates pre‑Columbian malaria in the Americas—but the general disease-devastation point is sound"
"nuanced take that regulation historically enabled trust when reputation didn’t scale, and that tools like Uber’s rating system partially substitute in some domains but not for externalities"
"notes that as human travel tech improves, so do robots; this arms race picture is broadly what we see: both human and robotic capabilities are advancing together"
"downplays the benefit of devirtualization by appealing to branch predictors; in practice, inlining enabled by static dispatch is a major win, and this was already well‑understood then; more a misjudgment than a future prediction."
"pointed out that centralized/off‑box logging would help detect tampering; directionally right, even though a sufficiently privileged attacker can still attack log infrastructure"
"the idea of a DSL on top of D3 for end users mirrors what many charting tools and platforms eventually offered, though no specific prediction was made"
"correct that “you just don’t understand Go” is a stock response and that Go feels like pre‑generics Java; generics’ later arrival softens—but doesn’t erase—that criticism."
"captures the emerging “trust gap” with cloud providers and articulates why “strong denials” don’t solve it; a good early statement of what later became a common stance"
"right that GTD can coexist with creative work for some, and ahead of the curve in building flexible review‑centric tooling; a bit too dismissive of others’ mismatches with GTD"
"correct that a 15‑year gestation would severely hurt credibility and adoption; maybe too categorical about “never going back,” but his risk assessment of tying code to that culture has aged decently"
"thoughtful tone but repeatedly mischaracterizes privacy concerns as FUD on par with anti‑vaccination or Y2K panic; this framing has aged poorly after major, well‑documented abuses of behavioral data"
"correctly calls out that the Chūō Shinkansen is JR Central financed and questions labeling it a standard public-works boondoggle; later cost overruns and delays show both the limits and the risks of that project"
"the notion that a chunk of brain migrated to the chest is simply not how development or anatomy works; it’s explicitly labeled a “stupid question,” but still clearly wrong in retrospect"
"excellent contextualization of the $6M a16z round as modest business funding rather than sinister capture; the feared a16z puppet scenario never occurred"
"good note that Angular is easier to drop in via a `<script>` and that React tends to be used with heavier tooling; that distinction largely held, though tooling became ubiquitous for everyone"
"pointed out correctly that plenty of money goes into physics, especially applied/energy‑related; this indeed outpaced funding growth in fundamental HEP."
"solid on Pigouvian taxes and externalities in general; however, in this specific case we went with bans, not taxation, and his “centrally planned = more polluted” generalization is only partially borne out"
"right about the practicality and long-standing use of recursive descent; the “only person” to write a complete C++ compiler is overstated and aged poorly"
"correctly inferred malicious, intentional insertion; distinguished it from process errors; connected it to NSA backdoor context in a way history has largely validated"
"solid take that insurance/legal systems would adapt and that existing driver‑assist tech hadn’t produced catastrophic legal blowback; broadly aligned with what happened"
"correct on finite ISS life, opportunity cost, and need to pivot to new architectures; overoptimistic on how fast bigger/further stations and space hotels would appear"
"right that the catalogue was already somewhat dated vs vendor offerings and that many similar tools are openly marketed; that’s only become more true"
"correct that blindly cutting off services would mostly hurt citizens and that full, fine-grained analysis of all traffic is hard; less attuned to targeted MITM on high-value sites"
"correct that blobs remain a huge attack surface and that OEM markups exist; badly wrong on Qubes’ practicality and on Purism being mere “security theater” that plays “absolutely no role”"
"minimizes slippery‑slope concerns and overestimates society’s ability to “know where to draw the line,” which the subsequent expansion of EM and repeated constitutional challenges tend to contradict"
"solid explanation of why naive recursive descent + left recursion diverges, but phrased over-broadly; later practice and tools show that “all grammars with left recursion have this problem” is not true for memoized/augmented top-down parsers"
"usefully points out that adding ADTs/pattern matching to Go isn’t a simple bolt‑on; you quickly run into deeper design constraints. That’s consistent with why Go *still* lacks ADTs/match."
"experience that Arch/pacman feels much faster than apt/dpkg has stayed true for many users; not predictive so much as correctly characterizing a persistent comparative advantage."
"right to distinguish true security vendors from AV snake‑oil and to praise grsecurity; “none” of the AVs are legitimate is a bit sweeping but not wildly off"
"correctly states that Dwolla is ACH-focused and Stripe at that moment wasn’t, while acknowledging Stripe’s ACH beta; accurate at the time but quickly overtaken by events"
"accurately pushed back on the idea that Bloomberg is a strict monopoly, which remains true; also correctly highlighted Bloomberg data quality issues, which many practitioners still report"
"right that economists are slow to change tools; overly dismissive of how symbolically important NY Fed’s Julia adoption became in quantitative macro circles"
"right that vendoring was the big 1.6 tooling change and that 2.0 would imply breaking compatibility; less so in assuming vendoring would be the long-term solution"
"implies that a non‑standard unit abbreviation undermines the article’s technical credibility; in hindsight the article’s *substance* aged quite well despite the notation"
"correctly states that patents protect ideas, “non‑obvious” is judged as of filing date, and that the spec is meant to make implementation obvious afterward"
"right about the difficulty of careful key erasure and constant‑time crypto in GC/immutable languages; this remains a key reason crypto stays in C/Rust"
"confident prediction of a new U.S. copyright‑term extension fight in 2–3 years did not occur; instead, the PD freeze ended in 2019 without CTEA‑style legislation"
"“Can’t software just be done at some point?” is a reasonable and increasingly relevant stance in a world chasing constant churn; not a prediction but philosophically prescient"
"consistently downplayed how often US police overstep and dismissed comparative stats; while “not all cops” is trivially true, the systemic scale of the problem was underestimated"
"saying the legal aspect was “taken care of by the Bill of Rights” badly misreads both history and the subsequent decade of erosions and weak enforcement"
"correct reminder that entropy isn’t the *goal*—file size is—but otherwise mostly generic commentary; note about compress-then-encrypt is standard wisdom"
"correct that “good insurance” can still buy world‑class care relatively smoothly; underestimates how ACA and employer trends would erode that “good insurance” option for many"
"correct that, by many material measures, we’re in an unusually prosperous era; a bit too cavalier about the distributional and regional downsides that became more salient later"
"macro point that cheap energy is broadly good and “elevated energy costs are a tax on everything” holds; some over‑simplification, but broadly aligned with how the oil slump played out"
"correct that U.S. early‑war posture was weak and that Japan briefly had operational advantages; overstated the plausibility that “a little fate” could have made the overall gamble “genius” given industrial imbalances"
"personal anecdote that “I’ve never seen data loss, so the article is a troll” misses the point about silent corruption and rare-but-devastating failures; underestimates the real issues"
"impressively hit self‑hosting, realistic about GCC extensions; over‑optimistic about long‑term OS/toolchain ambitions but his small‑backend comments aged well"
"highlighted Myrddin very early; it did not become big, but it’s a legitimate, ongoing one-person language project—exactly the kind of long-term dedication he admired"
"idea that blogs *should* link to immutable, content-addressed mirrors was soundly forward-looking, but it remains niche practice outside specialized communities"
"correct that browsers became OS-like, but framed wasm as largely pointless “reinventing the wheel”; subsequent adoption across browsers and serverless/edge platforms shows substantial real-world value"
"labels D‑Wave “fluff”; in hindsight their devices are real, quantum, and useful research platforms, even if they failed to deliver the hoped‑for advantage"
"accurately characterized Dwolla as a thin layer over partner banks/ACH and questioned the “transfer platform” framing, which matches Dwolla’s eventual B2B-infrastructure niche"
"good‑faith concern for the poor but frames the choice as “limited access or none” and sees regulatory limits as theft; India’s later cheap-open-Internet outcome suggests that was too narrow a view"
"argued NN activists were out‑of‑touch and that if they “won,” the poor would “not have any form of connectivity”; in fact, NN activists and TRAI blocked Free Basics, and connectivity soared via cheap open data"
"endorsing a specific Muji multitool as “ridiculously useful” is consistent with the pattern that some small hardware/accessory items achieve genuinely enduring reputations"
"explicit prediction that the case would “go nowhere” is clearly refuted by the substantial settlements and its role in pushing the industry toward the MMA"
"prescient about increasing behavioral manipulation and analogies to drug regulation; directionally right but still more speculative than realized so far"
"framing astronaut pay as solid but not riches remains fair; federal GS pay rose some, but tech salaries rose much more, so the overall picture stands"
"accurate about research‑driven modern kids’ TV, Sesame Street still handling complex topics, and nostalgia bias; anticipated updated screen‑time thinking"
"right to insist on human agency and racist conspiracies rather than blaming “the law” alone, though in this particular case the underlying factual story is unproven"
"accurate description of Cortana’s deep integration with Windows search and callbacks; somewhat optimistic relative to how much value users ultimately got"
"over‑optimistic about the broader Windows/UWP/Surface platform story, but very on‑point about .NET, open source, Docker, and PowerShell’s significance"
"claimed “almost anyone” could beat top Go programs with a few months of practice; already shaky then and completely demolished by AlphaGo and successors"
"sound observation that most “desktop equivalents” of phone apps are just web apps, limiting the practical value of a shared desktop/phone native app model"
"Android did “win” a huge slice of embedded, but the *hobby* SBC ecosystem mostly did not trickle down from Android; it stayed centered on generic Linux distros"
"overly pessimistic about the usefulness of containers overall, but strongly prescient about the complexity and technology sprawl that containerized microservices would encourage"
"good intuition that “client-less” pub/sub is attractive for constrained devices; broadly true, but HTTP-based brokers like Nchan didn’t become mainstream in IoT"
"insightful “what you achieve affects what you believe” inversion; somewhat too dismissive of belief’s causal role but broadly in line with evidence that performance and mindset influence each other"
"directionally right that lots of capital chased adtech/social and short‑term dopamine, but claims about cancer‑cure ROI being “probably small” and investors preferring Snapchat *because* of 5‑year ROI are off given how speculative late‑stage tech and oncology both turned out to be"
"“Its potential for both cleaning up waste and as an antibiotic is impressive!” — accurately highlights two enduring, active areas: fungal bioremediation and antibiotic/secondary‑metabolite discovery"
"interesting but speculative attempt to leverage a narrow probate quote into a broader abortion argument; overreads a context-specific legal statement"
"clear explanation that RFC email syntax is not what web forms really want, and that true validation requires sending mail – a view that matches current guidance"
"repeatedly and confidently asserted that everything was already public, that no state meaningfully restricted access, and that this wasn’t a breach in any substantive sense—positions out of line with both the law in some states and the later consensus on the seriousness of such exposures"
"asks good questions about uncomputable results and physical bounds; later comments and the literature confirm the “infinite system” caveat he guessed"
"Higgs comments mix some truths with guesses; Higgs is indeed its own antiparticle, but “decays to two photons almost immediately” overstates that particular channel"
"overstated claim that automation makes validity periods meaningless if a host is compromised; ignored the “leaked but not ongoing control” scenario that short lifetimes mitigate"
"remarks that classical simulations can be faster because they’re idealized; directionally right for many tested instance sizes, though quantum annealing vs QMC scaling remains nuanced"
"overstated that cloud chat is “all kinds of stupid” and legally dubious; in practice, cloud Slack/Teams became standard even in many regulated industries"
"asked for vCloud Director support; reasonable at the time but that path didn’t become important for Cloudcraft, which stayed focused on AWS and later Azure"
"sound skepticism about starting fresh with Perl 5, correctly noting its loss of mindshare to Python/Ruby/PHP and Perl 6’s likely traps; the long‑term “bury Python” hope remains untestable"
"captures real moral imbalance between what inmates endure and minor admin annoyances; doesn’t engage much with efficacy, but the moral framing is defensible"
"reasonable concerns about over‑marketing and side effects, but the suggestion that the “bigger mistake” was going on SSRIs in the first place—told to someone whose life dramatically improved—aged poorly both ethically and in light of treatment‑benefit data"
"correct that ARP/FOSS culture was strong, but too dismissive of the significance of the 3.x sources, which became the basis for later commercial 3.1.4/3.2 work"
"argues that the Android 6 permission change “rounds to 0” users and calling it “fixed” is overstated; narrow short‑term framing that aged poorly as 6.x+ became pervasive"
"correct that XFS can look worse than ext4 on crashes for non-fsyncing apps, but the blanket “XFS will lose more data” framing is misleading relative to modern consensus on fsync responsibilities"
"technically careful description of how Juniper chained Dual_EC into ANSI X9.31 and why exploitability wasn’t trivial; a good counterbalance that aged well"
"sound geopolitical context—Israel lobbying over Iran is clearly fair game for foreign intelligence—though underestimates the domestic‑power and separation‑of‑powers angle"
"overconfident claim that forcing criminals to roll their own crypto would be a “huge win”; in practice, criminals often used mainstream tools or specialized encrypted services that law enforcement compromised via other means—no evidence this hypothetical strategy would have been a clear advantage"
"Jade, Sass, and CoffeeScript were reasonable answers then; Sass persisted, Jade/Pug and CoffeeScript became niche, but the mapping to “NoX” abstractions was on point"
"correct that the hamburger was becoming familiar and was semi‑standard on Android; wrong in downplaying its UX problems as later research and guidelines made clear"
"correctly emphasizes that infrastructure and population are not easily moved, and that northern warming and insolation patterns don’t trivially translate into “new good farmland.”"
"rightly pointed out substantial progress—especially in agriculture and surplus—during the medieval period; slightly under‑emphasized how thoroughly the “Dark Ages” idea has been deconstructed by historians."
"normative claim that doing business with China is a bad idea; not a prediction per se, but subsequent tech and geopolitical tensions have made this view more mainstream"
"right that 2/20 fee structures can make large VC funds great for managers and mediocre for LPs; overstates the claim that VC overall had “substandard” returns across 20+ years, given strong post‑2009 vintages"
"consistently downplayed demographic risks and leaned on bad analogies; reality in Japan over the last decade has moved decisively against his position"
"advocates “days of use” trials; while not universal, this model continued to be used and aligns with how many devs think about real evaluation vs calendar time"
"clear conceptual distinction between “Spotify the catalog/discovery service” and “a self-hosted web player,” which mapped well to where the ecosystem went"
"sensible distinction between “websites” and heavy “web applications” for WS usage; directionally right, though the site/app line is blurrier in practice"
"reasonable criticism of the article’s style, but misreads the group as just /r/abandonedporn reposts; underestimates the more general phenomenon it exemplified"
"overestimated what peer review can detect, underestimated the role of reputation and transparency in combating fraud, and attached too much hope to anonymity as a driver of replication and fairness"
"saying “as best I can tell, the YubiHSM is basically only useful with [their] proprietary 2FA solution” aged poorly; YubiHSM 2 is now a widely‑used general HSM."
"accurate about HFS+/journaled evolution and about Gluster + Btrfs/XFS checksum layering; some speculation about crash frequency vs. perceived safety that’s hard to verify"
"intuition that “we need to go retrieve that ship” and standardize away password UX pain was correct, but that ship ultimately sailed via different tech—WebAuthn/passkeys, password managers"
"right that profits would push many firms to comply and that similar powers would be sought in the UK; overstated that everyone would “roll over” and somewhat blurred what exactly the law required"
"philosophically coherent low‑false‑negative argument, but practically close to Pascal’s mugging; would have justified wasting more effort on what turned out to be a scam"
"Sensible comment about first-class functions and how misunderstandings lead to overuse of anonymous callbacks; not directly predictive, but sound reasoning."
"personal dislike of induction in a rich-world context; not really about the article’s topic or longer-term global trends where induction has generally gained favor"
"criticism that GitLab.com “is simply not up to standard” for SaaS reliability was valid then; GitLab later did invest heavily and turn it into a real business‑grade service"
"advocating structured cabling in new builds is sensible and did become more common in some places, but doesn’t directly intersect with how NYC’s public connectivity story evolved"
"accurately describing TREZOR’s then‑current design; uncertainty about secure chips for secp256k1 was reasonable at the time, though the ecosystem quickly caught up"
"correctly identifies the anti–naked short selling motive, but over-simplifies the idea that naked shorting would be “not possible” if shares are on a blockchain; reality is more about rules and enforcement than ledger tech."
"claim that using official Java/OpenJDK on Android would have likely caused Android to fail is speculative and not clearly borne out; ART+OpenJDK coexist fine"
"solid pointers to important metric-tree literature and MVP trees; no explicit predictions, but situates the topic in a research direction that continued to matter"
"ambitious geometric/topological encoding for graphs; interesting blue-sky thinking but no visible impact on mainstream compression or graph DBs over the decade"
"overstated claim that Go is the “benchmark” for imports; some points are fair, but subsequent experience exposed substantial warts and controversy around Go’s import/init behavior"
"argues TS/Dart mostly fragment and that optional typing should have gone into ES6/7 directly; ecosystem instead standardized on TS outside the language core"
"“Moore’s law is going to stop” plus “we keep piling abstractions”; the slowdown is real, but software happily continued piling abstractions anyway without an immediate crisis"
"correct that legacy systems are hard, but significantly wrong in dismissing foot‑dragging and in predicting that eFOIA‑style systems would broadly take “a huge bite” out of backlogs"
"right that Chrome‑app + Android‑only + phone-number ID were problematic; Chrome apps died and phone-number identity is only now being softened with usernames"
"correct that an open smart-plug‑like platform would be attractive, but the prediction that such an open alternative would “eat the lunches” of Belkin/GE‑style proprietary ecosystems did not pan out; the market remained dominated by closed-ish vendor ecosystems"
"reasonable suggestion to standardize a good algorithm for `std::rand`, but misses that global state and API limitations were core reasons the committee went a different way."
"calling the setup “half-assed” for not also doing DHCP matches what Pi-hole eventually formalized as best practice, though it was more a usability critique than a prediction"
"clear on the logic of deterrence—nukes as credible threat, not intended weapons—matches continued UK/U.S. policy; doesn’t engage with cost, but conceptually sound"
"thoughtful defense of Haskell, but the claim that “CS is a branch of maths so performance isn’t that big a deal” doesn’t match how most CS is practiced; over-optimistic about Haskell’s centrality"
"good “pull the ladder up behind you” observation about incumbents defending the unlicensed commons once they benefit from it; the dynamic shows up repeatedly in later spectrum fights"
"the “symbol-based languages make computers awkward to adopt” hypothesis remains unsupported; Japanese and Chinese users adapted just fine with IMEs and mobile devices"
"correctly surfaces real practical issues with AST‑based storage/merge—comments, preprocessing, mixed languages—which are indeed big reasons such systems didn’t take off"
"concerns about LLVM “modularity” being illusory due to forks were partially valid at the time but mitigated as Rust/Emscripten tracked upstream releases reasonably well"
"took the Mars-safety API joke literally and suggested a “celestial body” argument, which did not happen in standard libs; logical idea, but no real uptake"
"correct that “if you build it, they will come” is a myth; the specific “Field of Dreams ruined founders” framing is tongue‑in‑cheek but not really explanatory"
"correct instinct that rankings are not “credible research,” but calling them “utter and complete bullshit” overshoots; in practice they remained noisy but somewhat informative signals"
"value judgment rather than prediction, but the skepticism of the “do what you love” mantra fits with later backlash against passion-as-duty narratives"
"asserted it was “unlikely anyone did anything wrong” and framed the skier’s outrage as unreasonable; later findings and the FIS response show the operator clearly violated instructions"
"good explanation of diode behavior; the numbers discussed are slightly off relative to typical LED expectations but the qualitative reasoning is sound and timeless"
"clear understanding of early Let’s Encrypt adoption and the importance of HTTPS everywhere; prediction that they were likely just testing HTTPS aligns with how projects rolled it out"
"accurate practical note that `<keygen>` worked in some browsers and even tied into TPM storage; that line of deployment did not become the mainstream path"
"captured that people use Telegram as a normal IM, but missed the later defining features—channels, bots, file‑sharing—that differentiate it from “numerous other IM apps”"
"skeptical of spreadsheets as a crutch and pointed to more powerful tools; accurate about the existence of better probabilistic frameworks, but spreadsheet-like interfaces proved surprisingly resilient."
"intuition that Europe is “generally great” is mixed: Europe does score somewhat better on some gender‑equality indices, but still has plenty of its own tech‑sexism problems"
"solid historical context via Nmap docs; correctly notes that poor ISNs were a 90s issue largely fixed in modern OSes, while still relevant for some devices"
"underestimates real-world MITM and ad/malware injection, and confidently dismisses the very use case—HTTPS everywhere—that became standard; not an F only because the content really is low-sensitivity in isolation"
"overoptimistic prediction that spoofed/mis‑issued certs would soon be a thing of the past and that git meaningfully prevents history attacks; both points partially contradicted by the last decade"
"argues that NOBUS backdoors are fine if the key is kept safe; Juniper is now a textbook counterexample used precisely to show why that thinking fails"
"claim that “most of Google’s data is scraped from Wikipedia, so either/or is probably pretty similar” underestimated the diversity and scale of Google’s non-Wikipedia sources"
"no technical prediction, but an interesting early vision of interactive grammar education using D3, which fits the later growth of ed‑tech visual tools"
"asking the right “what should I learn next?” question; no prediction, but the instinct to learn bash and possibly Python turned out to be very practical"
"correct that BFF is conceptually a façade and that Node.js/JS are natural edge technologies, but very wrong that different platforms needing different backends is “BS”"
"good instinct about confounding factors, plus an excellent, prescient micro-hydro and lighting anecdote that matches how off-grid electrification actually evolved"
"excellent explanation of how interconnections and neighbors’ baseload enable Denmark/Portugal’s high-variable-renewables model, and why Costa Rica’s context is different"
"correct that large merchants with loyal customers can run their own wallets—Starbucks, Walmart—but understated the staying power of generic card wallets"
"right that Dwolla, without cards, is a non-starter for mainstream ecommerce; also correctly points to Visa Direct/Mastercard Send as important for instant payouts, though he understated the legitimacy of TradeHill’s complaints"
"intuition that something like this could extend ChromeBook capabilities was directionally right, even though ChromeOS evolved with native/packaged apps instead of an in-tab desktop"
"right that CRUD-with-email-login was clunkier than it should have been; wrong to extrapolate that into a general indictment of Django/Rails, since both continued to thrive and Django’s ecosystem around auth improved"
"partially right that devs can misunderstand startup realities, but events since have shown founder/VC dysfunction was very real, not mostly dev naïveté"
"correctly identified onboarding / adding friends as the pivotal challenge for such a network; history of secure/federated tools has strongly confirmed this."
"accurately described why native SVG support is heavier than PNG — DOM, XML, CSS — though library size has become less critical as devices grew more powerful"
"usefully highlighted the key doctrinal point from the EFF article about patents needing to trade real technical disclosure for exclusivity; that critique has held up well."
"good diagnosis that the trend was toward cloud rather than preloaded knowledge; the specific hope of phones shipping with full OSM/Wikipedia never materialized"
"reasonable assessment that overlapping instructions “just don’t happen” in normal code on many ISAs and that IDA Python helps patch obfuscated cases; in practice this matched how REs work"
"overstates the case that “basically every bigger compiler uses handwritten recursive descent”; RD is very common but not universal, and calling the story “idiotic” misses the valid reasoning"
"right that the problem is “CT-like” in spirit and that tomography is an important direction, but overly optimistic about straightforward applicability of off-the-shelf CT to this specific use case at library scale"
"mmap suggestion is reasonable in the abstract but didn’t account for compressed inputs or actual apt constraints; the “only Windows doesn’t support it” line was also off."
"asserts that European welfare states will be “ramped down radically within a decade or two”; ten years in, they’re under pressure but largely intact and in some areas even expanded, so the prediction doesn’t yet match reality"
"some insight into flaring practices, but over-attributes the lack of flaring to California environmental law rather than the actual leak geometry and safety constraints"
"correct that India/China are large contributors, but framing them as “driving the climate change disaster, not the USA” is historically and policy-wise too one-sided"
"correctly sensed that consumer‑facing tools using open standards were under pressure; 2Do did remain one of the few polished CalDAV todo apps, even though the overall ecosystem didn’t completely wither"
"OP helpfully surfaced Positive Money and survey data; in hindsight, public ignorance about money creation proved real, though public *support* did not translate into a yes vote"
"technically insightful comment about analyzing tweets for mental state; ethically quite questionable in the longer‑term light of surveillance and privacy concerns"
"legitimate concerns about signaling to customers, but he overestimates the long-term damage of such transparency; practice since has largely contradicted his implied model"
"argument that humans in space are about meaning and subjective experience as much as data looks increasingly borne out by public fascination with ISS live streams, social media from orbit, and Artemis’s symbolic role"
"key insight that the Holocaust *ended* while many modern stressors are chronic and indefinite; that chronicity vs acuteness distinction is central in later mental‑health thinking"
"partly right that many prisoners are in for long-recognized violent crimes, but overstated; a large share are in for property/drug offenses especially when including jails and federal"
"Argued for naming functions to improve readability and debugging, and called anonymous functions heavily abused; today’s style guides tend to agree for any nontrivial function."
"predicted a user-installed shared NW.js runtime and leaned on NW.js backward compatibility; the ecosystem moved to per-app bundling and Electron dominance instead"
"nailed the “thin client on a cheap laptop, heavy compiler/analysis on a server” model that’s now common with remote dev and dev containers; slightly off in being dismissive of HTML/JS UIs, which eventually worked well enough via Electron/VS Code"
"Correct on early Windows/Python pain and that FlatBuffers were convenient for cross-language binary formats; some technical claims about Cap’n Proto were already partially off."
"clear articulation of the government‑compulsion / mutable‑UI threat model that still underlies many modern concerns about centralized identity providers"
"accurately described theoretical benefits of asteroid resources and especially materials outside Earth’s gravity well, but implicitly leaned optimistic on near-term economic incentive; a decade later, we have more theory and no industry"
"floats “maybe women just aren’t as excited by the field” as main cause; preferences play some role, but evidence since 2015 weighs much more heavily on culture and bias"
"downplayed the value of integrated platforms handling HA, resource management, and security updates together; Kubernetes and operators ended up bundling many of those concerns under one umbrella"
"labeling the author a “terrible, terrible juror” and largely missing the structural insights; attitude is at odds with how much more seriously we now take false confessions and police misconduct"
"nostalgia for in-office LAN games anticipates, in reverse, the later nostalgia many people have now for in-person office socializing vs today’s remote tools"
"suspicion about money wasn’t clearly vindicated; Ghost Security Group did not become a big established or obviously cash‑rich “fed front,” but the general instinct that going “legit” needs resources was fair"
"right that official stats were incomplete, but the implied reassurance that many killings were probably justified is not supported by the fuller post‑2015 data"
"correct about single-thread limits hurting “desktop replacement” ambitions; somewhat overstates the impossibility given later growth of workers/WebAssembly"
"right that tech pushed the marginal cost of music distribution near zero; too quick to treat the whole industry as artificially kept alive by lobbying, ignoring streaming’s eventual commercial success"
"skepticism about government‑driven grant systems is historically interesting but not clearly causally tied to the pace of fundamental discovery; no strong vindication one way or another."
"observing that earlier django CMS had painful dependency tangles was correct; noting that 3.2’s requirements looked saner matched the project’s later direction"
"on point about misallocated resources—monitoring everyone instead of obvious high‑risk individuals has been a recurring criticism after multiple attacks"
"more grounded appraisal of Brazil’s institutions and anti‑corruption drive; later events partially validate the optimism relative to “new Venezuela” doom"
"correct that savings alone often won’t make someone rich from a low salary, but somewhat underestimates the power of long-term compounding for those who can save at all"
"interprets Patrick McKenzie’s stance as wanting builders to capture more of the value they create; consistent with the past decade’s founder/VC narratives"
"accurately notes that “never invoke UB” is possible but extremely hard and often performance-costly; that view has been reinforced by widespread sanitizer findings"
"right that PHP historically made insecure database usage too easy; but “PHP will never become a good language” is overstated given the 7/8 improvements"
"insightful comments about intent and misaligned abstractions, but the specific “Browsers can't do that” claim about moving executables before running was wrong technically"
"the claim that it’s “too much” for automatic tools to insert 301 redirects or HSTS headers was overtaken by reality—automation of exactly those things became standard and safe enough for the mainstream"
"overly optimistic that amici could appeal within the administration and significantly shape outcomes; in practice they remained a limited, court‑controlled mechanism"
"reasonable generalization about authoritarian management existing elsewhere and being survivable in large firms; not particularly predictive about Korea per se"
"outcome—“0 worries” in practice—ended up roughly true because LTE‑U/LAA deployments were limited, but the mechanism “PR backlash from obviously broken Wi‑Fi” was probably overestimated"
"right that Haskell is more opinionated and CL is multi-paradigm, but too glib in claiming strong typing, monads, and laziness can just be “written into” CL in any comparable way"
"correct in praising Nix’s conceptual power, but the “yawn, another language-specific package manager” stance aged poorly given Conan’s real-world success and the persistent popularity of language-specific PMs"
"correctly highlighted stubborn DOC-only workflows and ATS parsing as the real reason; those issues persisted for years, though strict DOC-only requirements have somewhat declined"
"excellent, technically accurate explanation of 802.11 FEC, LDPC, interleaving, and latency trade‑offs that maps perfectly to how such systems are still designed"
"predicted Surface/Windows 10 tablets would start to dominate and that “everyone” shopping was looking at them; the form factor grew, but dominance never happened"
"correct that there are more people than jobs in aggregate at many points; raises the alternative of educating current inhabitants, which indeed became central policy, though it wasn’t sufficient alone"
"good economic intuition about chronic “control” drugs and competition undermining long‑term gouging; aligned with how chronic oncology/immunology markets evolved"
"observation that caffeine can disrupt circadian rhythm and that limiting it helps earlier waking is well supported; calling the OP “not a night owl” is subjective"
"intuition about tracking flows for microservices/networking was on target, though the ecosystem standardized around different mechanisms—tracing, eBPF, service meshes—rather than DIY StatsD-based edge emission"
"correctly anticipated continued reform rather than stagnation and accurately highlighted union resistance; strong moral clarity that aligns with later human rights consensus"
"good call on Click and schema-style validation; Click especially became ubiquitous, and schema/validation libraries did become central, though pydantic later stole the spotlight"
"right about Persona’s privacy advantages and UX potential, but too optimistic that Mozilla could just bring it back, add some UX polish and marketing, and win; the market went elsewhere"
"incorrectly asserted that a key Play Store install-auth option “has been there for ages” when it hadn’t; mixes up purchase auth with permission/install controls"
"claimed difficulty naming dictators receiving U.S. arms; the subsequent prominence of Sisi in Egypt, MBS in Saudi Arabia, and other heavily armed authoritarian partners makes this look naïve"
"on solid ground that tau’s lack of ecosystem support makes it a poor primary teaching constant; compares tau/pi debate to a “sports team rivalry,” which is a fair description of how it’s played out."
"correct that facts can be in the public interest, but badly underestimates potential harm of outing / mis‑outing Satoshi; later events show the “no one’s really harmed” stance was naive"
"correctly identifies automated mushroom picking as a hard, unsolved robotics problem and a plausible entrepreneurial frontier; that remains accurate, and agricultural robotics has indeed boomed while mushroom harvesting is still not trivial"
"correct that many issues were generic infra automation and that prior tools existed; calling Docker half-baked underestimated how its model and ecosystem would dominate"
"persists in conflating RBAC and capability-based security despite strong, correct counter-arguments; later history and literature do not support the “all just glorified ACLs” claim."
"very prescient about third-party doctrine / legal and data‑exfiltration risks of giving a vendor full visibility into HTTPS traffic; exactly the kind of risk later realized in practice"
"electricity‑style per‑TB billing at something like “$5/TB” never arrived and doesn’t map well to network cost structure, but at least recognized that transparent, falling per‑bit prices would be required"
"their “if everyone signs a standard contract you’re an employee” test simply isn’t how the law works; many contractors sign take-it-or-leave-it agreements"
"vague concern about future communication being readable by an attacker; the scheme doesn’t magically fix forward secrecy, but the comment isn’t clearly reasoned"
"right direction on “bioavailability matters” but too sloppy and absolutist in the organic vs inorganic framing; out of step with nuanced modern toxicology"
"correct that there are female mass killers, but too quick to dismiss masculinity as a central analytic lens despite overwhelming male skew in mass violence"
"right that modeling and specification are weak in software, but dismissing team‑size/communication issues and treating civil engineering megaprojects as a counterexample does not square with subsequent data or experience."
"excellent explanation of overfitting and the purpose of the rules; presciently notes that gaming for fractional gains is a sign the dataset is exhausted and new challenges are needed"
"“Next year in life plus 50 countries… Walt Disney” is off by a calendar‑year detail but substantively right; Walt’s works did enter PD in life+50 countries like Canada in 2017"
"hamburger did “catch on” as a known symbol, but his contention that it’s “not a bad design at all” and “here to stay” for main menus has been strongly undercut by industry practice and research"
"confidently asserting that 2.7 would remain the non–Python-3 developers’ preference and downplaying Python 3 as “just unicode onion” was almost exactly backwards given Python 2’s EOL and Python 3’s dominance and feature growth"
"early instinct that AI/ML would become important aids in hard theoretical/visualization problems; borne out in multiple subfields, though not yet revolutionary for quantum gravity per se."
"right that environmental regulation has solved big problems in the past and that sea‑level rise is on century scales; too sanguine about “not worrying for a decade or two” and about mild incrementalism later being enough."
"normative take on deterrence aside, the idea that old bombers surviving is partly because “carpet bombing is passe” is directionally right, but muddled"
"right that cost-per-compute had been improving; overconfident extrapolation of Kurzweil-style trends into a decade that saw clear slowdowns and shortages"
"right about the late‑2010s clustering of laptop workers in core cities, but missed or discounted the longer‑term remote‑work shift that did, in fact, materialize"
"reasonable skepticism about coupling routing logic too tightly to JSX/components; the ecosystem mostly went the other direction, but the design tradeoff they note remains debated"
"asserted that “heaps of evidence” show HFT ruins markets, economies, and nations; a decade later, that level of harm simply isn’t supported by either data or events"
"right about DF being art‑driven and about the money left on the table; wrong in confidently claiming they “aren’t” willing to compromise on usability—Steam/itch release disproved that"
"amplifying a rumor that WhatsApp’s encryption would be canceled/backdoored after the Facebook acquisition; instead WhatsApp massively deployed Signal Protocol"
"technically plausible and somewhat ahead of the curve on cheap cloud surveillance / dead‑man’s switches, but overestimates their real‑world protective power against serious political actors"
"captures a real dynamic with “it’s about self‑esteem,” but too sweeping; ignores the substantial reformist push toward methodological rigor post‑replication crisis"
"the “dignity driven development” sentiment presaged a broader wave of interest in simpler, less bloated software, even if it wasn’t a concrete prediction"
"correct that native binary matrices are hard, but too dismissive of what problems a tool like Conan can address; subsequent adoption of Conan/vcpkg shows this wasn’t “impossible or pointless”"
"correct that tivoization and locked firmware hurt user autonomy, but overstates GPL licensing as a primary lever against state surveillance; the surveillance ecosystem mostly ignored these licensing battles"
"right that long-term technical debt can be existential, but the 40–100 year horizon is still speculative; nonetheless reflects issues we see with COBOL/mainframe modernization"
"defense of singletons for huge data is understandable but dismisses real maintainability concerns; the “database is just someone else’s singletons” argument is more rhetorical than illuminating"
"normative claim that investing in iOS is a “waste” of Mozilla’s resources; history doesn’t clearly support that—Firefox/Focus on iOS gave Mozilla at least some presence on a major platform"
"skeptical that long gaps between meals/feast-famine patterns are compatible with 9–5 life; that proved incorrect as IF became common among office workers"
"accurately described a real pain point of 2015-era OpenBSD updates; that pain was later significantly addressed, making the criticism historically accurate but now outdated"
"general musing about breaking changes vs education vs commercial use; too high‑level to judge strongly, but the idea that breakage “hurts mainstream adoption” was temporarily true and then overcome"
"right that tactics/open games are important for beginners, but overly dismissive of London‑type system openings, which proved very practical and popular"
"links AMD’s Boltzmann initiative and suggests AMD might support CUDA “soon”; in practice that never produced a CUDA-equal world or changed the balance of power"
"right that longform was and remained widely shared and that aggregators like Longreads would matter; slightly optimistic about shares equating to deep reading"
"writes off the piece as “a lot of Vice-y words,” missing that the moderation/attention issues were actually quite emblematic of where social media was heading"
"right that a single developer writing everything from scratch will have lots of bugs; wrong to read that as showing a lack of engineering expertise—subsequent stability and community affection contradict that"
"good real-world anecdote on SSD wear in heavy ZFS SLOG use; inference that SSDs are just “wearing parts” was too pessimistic for where enterprise SSD tech went"
"underestimated network effects and overemphasized algorithms as the key differentiator; Uber’s relative resilience vs smaller competitors suggests the opposite"
"excellent exposition of the happy‑path fallacy and how products get conceptually warped by bolted‑on exceptions; this pattern has proven extremely common"
"downplays UB as mostly an education problem and a few pitfalls; later data shows memory‑unsafety is systemic and persists even with better education and tools"
"correct that moving to OpenJDK helped future-proof Android legally and align runtimes; overestimates immediate implications like a Chrome/desktop-Android convergence"
"misread the commit as meaning Oracle v Google had been settled out of court; strong JVM-in-browser hopes that didn’t pan out; some correct points about HotSpot’s maturity but big-picture predictions were off"
"personal preference for text over video; while B2B/dev sales still heavily rely on text and recommendations, video marketing became even more central overall than this comment suggests"
"critique of the 30% cut and “app stores as money grab” has persisted into the antitrust era; though in practice many devs still decide the tradeoff is worth it"
"fair high-level take that NT historically had a richer I/O model, but the “only network and disk on Linux” async I/O claim aged poorly as Linux’s async ecosystem expanded"
"very sharp on sharing-without-reading and on the shift toward writer‑centered longform and podcasts, though slightly too gloomy about longform’s overall status"
"communicates the core uncertainty about whether D‑Wave is “doing quantum magic”; slightly behind the then‑current experimental evidence but captures the public confusion"
"right that NASA lacked a domestic crew launcher in 2015, but badly wrong that leaving ISS would mean no human spaceflight; Artemis and Commercial Crew disproved this"
"nicely articulates how shared AVs could reduce car counts and integrate with transit; conceptually solid, though widespread realization of this remains ahead, not behind us."
"notes that shell completions could cover some of this; in practice core CLI completions improved, though not fully covering aws-shell’s server-side richness"
"dismissed the value of Docker images for Rust; the industry moved decisively in the opposite direction, with official Rust images becoming standard in CI and devops"
"carefully re-checked later commits, correctly concluded it was “just a new libcore implementation based on OpenJDK” and anticipated performance implications"
"assumes Juniper “must be regretting” going public and implies they should have hidden it in a regular patch; in hindsight, non‑disclosure would have been even more damaging once inevitably discovered"
"useful and correct insistence on distinguishing “physics” broadly from just particle/fundamental physics; the decade reinforced that distinction strongly."
"point about Fortran module dependencies being awkward for Ninja-like systems remained true and emblematic of why true language-agnostic build executors are tricky"
"skepticism about white Americans trying new foods has some truth, but the subsequent decade saw significant further mainstreaming of diverse cuisines"
"the “FTL → immediate disqualification” stance is purist and still controversial; internally consistent but out of step with how most later hard‑SF lists were actually curated"
"the blackbody-radiation numbers aren’t wrong, but the quick dismissal of practical IR issues is incomplete; doesn’t really age badly or especially well"
"implies “you’ve already got a perfectly fine KVS built into the language” without much nuance; `dict`/shelve/dbm are useful, but they’re not a drop-in replacement for a proper embeddable document DB like TinyDB in many use cases"
"insisted Docker makes these patterns harder and systemd/groups suffice; technically possible but clearly misjudged where mainstream practice would go"
"right about LuaJIT performance and LÖVE’s minimalism, but clearly wrong in framing LÖVE as essentially only for prototyping and implying people didn’t bother making distributable games"
"expresses concern for a friend, but the claim that deep Doom mapping is a “waste” aged poorly against the enduring value of modding and shifting views on specialization and neurodivergent interests"
"assessment that darktable’s editing lagged RawTherapee in 2015 was at least debatable then, and is arguably reversed now; not egregiously wrong but not prescient"
"right that Kickstarter would suffer from abuse and eroding trust, but wrong that its potential was essentially gone; the platform remained very significant"
"correctly highlighted terrible Swift debug performance and unpredictability in early toolchains, but extrapolated this into a broad conclusion that Swift’s performance model is inherently unsuitable for predictable systems programming; optimized Swift has since proven quite predictable and competitive in its intended subset."
"arguments that Obj‑C is fundamentally superior on performance and Swift won’t match it have not aged well; Swift is now the performance-focused language Apple is pushing"
"requests for more “game-y” elements haven’t really become the norm in serious learning tools; the gentle, failure-tolerant style proved more enduring"
"anecdata about legitimate use of Megaupload and frustration with enforcement priorities; the basic tension between resource allocation and IP enforcement remains real"
"insightful emphasis on having “one mind” across front and back end and on team composition, which aligns with how successful product teams now operate"
"his narrative—power user leaving Linux desktop for macOS due to configuration churn and drivers, but still using Linux on servers/VMs—matches a large real-world trend."
"accurate about the educational value of understanding hardware and data, and prescient on DOD gaining followers; but too absolutist and dismissive about abstractions, STL, and real-world engine practice"
"no empirical falsification yet of “never Mars,” but the assertion that off‑Earth colonization is akin to belief in mythical creatures looks increasingly implausible given Artemis, Starship, and multinational base concepts; underestimated both technological and institutional momentum"
"correctly emphasizes the weight of scientific consensus and pushes denialists to justify rejecting it; the factual basis of that consensus only grew stronger"
"correct core point: what artists *want* vs. what the market will pay are far apart; nostalgia doesn’t set prices; that dynamic has defined the streaming decade"
"right that devices would eventually be able to host fully functional offline OSM systems, but leaned on an overly optimistic 128TB-by-2018 prediction that did not pan out"
"the vision of easily plugging SSN into SSDI for FOIA, plus an open SSDI API, was over‑optimistic; the trend went in the opposite direction on privacy grounds"
"asserted that home prices “should come down a bit as interest rates move up”; in practice, they rose for years and only later slowed under much higher rates"
"right that many Android devices operate outside Play, and that alternative maps/YouTube usage is possible, which is roughly the model later seen with WSA + Amazon Appstore"
"good question about whether this would become an arbitrary shibboleth for general jobs and hope for more diverse domains; accurately flags the selection-bias and breadth problem Starfighter never really solved"
"right that a Linux+Wine bundle would be more practical than ReactOS as‑designed; that is effectively what Proton/SteamOS did, though his later “desktop apps not that relevant” stance is overstated"
"suggestion of a robotic, unmanned ISS in higher orbit did not happen, but the broader idea of robotic outposts is in line with Lagrange‑point observatories and future CLD concepts"
"on the tech side, rightly skeptical of incentivized reviews and focused on 3‑star/negative reviews; but “completely ignore Amazon reviews” was too strong, and separate cultural comments about Orthodox Jews were off‑base."
"right about corporate-written laws and media incentives in general; wrong that CNN/NBC “didn’t mention CISA once”—they did when it actually passed the Senate"
"claiming to have “never actually heard of successful anti‑fraud busts” and implying LE is basically wasting time; contradicted by numerous then‑past and later major operations"
"wrong that mainstream news “completely failed” on the story; however, the observation about limited visceral imagery vs. BP’s oil slicks is partly fair"
"the “never see internet censorship in the US” line did not age well given subsequent domain seizures, platform pressures, and legislative content restrictions"
"right that the key value is a unified, easy hailing/payment layer more than just “cheap amateurs”; underestimates the regulatory and capital barriers"
"useful comparative detail about Poland and alternative punishments; not predictive, but consistent with later international framing of U.S. practices as unusually harsh"
"claim that any teaching is harmless if parents are loving overlooks well-documented stress effects of overpressuring children, though not specific to reading"
"correct that most “big corporations” aren’t Google/FB, but he underestimated how broadly high‑end BigTech comp would spread and how many people would in fact be on 250k‑ish packages"
"mixed bag: some reasonable emotional advice and recognition of rejection, but several sweeping “you’ll always have to do HTML/CSS/JS” style claims that were too web-centric"
"asserts that YC is the “greatest helper of startups” and that expanding help widely is net good; YC indeed became even more central and scaled its help via Startup School and larger batches."
"accurate in describing a trend toward static/AOT models but overstates it as a historical regression; mainstream languages have thrived with this design"
"Correctly noted function name inference and the value of named functions, and understood that arrow functions could/should get automatic names in common scenarios—exactly what later spec and engines delivered."
"consistently skeptical about anecdata and “SCIENCE!” posturing; stressed socio‑economic context and limits of teacher‑only explanations for motivation—positions strongly supported by later education research and ongoing policy debates."
"brought strong comparative stats and early recognition of systemic, not isolated, issues in US policing; SWAT/militarization concerns proved well‑founded"
"sensibly pointed out that willingness to pay is not ability to pay, and that small patient populations don’t automatically make a viable market at any price"
"strong defense of scientific consensus as the practical arbiter of truth for non‑specialists; correctly notes that “consensus has been wrong before” is not an argument to ignore it"
"correct that significance ≠ originality and that “successful clones” like MS-DOS or Mathematica can define eras; historically vindicated on that point"
"harsh but directionally accurate assessment that Nim’s case/underscore insensitivity is a bad idea that the broader language community would not adopt."
"right that many users prefer quick, example-driven docs and won’t memorize flags; a bit pessimistic about tools ever becoming “obvious and intuitive,” but the core point held up"
"correct that many Americans embrace diverse cuisines and that lokum is structurally similar to familiar candies, but a bit overconfident about how easily people accept rosewater/flower flavors"
"good to question “2 million more jobs than people” in an age of automation and unequal access to higher education; but the last decade shows automation did not eliminate the need for many of those skilled jobs"
"correct that, then and now, the majority of heavy office work is still done in desktop Office; less accurate skepticism that cloud suites would see major growth"
"asks the key “why do we need solitary at all?” question and gestures toward less extreme forms of separation; somewhat underestimates how often “single cell + no yard time” is already exactly how solitary works"
"pushed back that Qt apps were uncommon on “regular” Windows; not egregiously wrong at the time, but Qt’s quiet spread on Windows in subsequent years undercuts the argument somewhat"
"right that pop music / graphic design faced more competition for attention, but underestimated the ongoing depth of musical impact and overrelied on anecdote to dismiss new phenomena like “Gangnam Style”"
"right to point out that NeXT’s tech later underpinned macOS, but leans too heavily on the acquisition price as evidence of NeXT’s own commercial success"
"right that investigation/archiving matter and that citizen journalism can uncover truths, but asserted “this incident shows nicely how this can happen to anyone” re police abuse before we knew if that framing fit this case"
"right that big manufacturers stuck with proprietary RAW formats and that “just decoding” isn’t enough, but underestimated how close or superior open‑source RAW pipelines would become in practice"
"correct that cancer is harder than classical infectious‑disease vaccination, but overstated “we already know” and “half a century with not much success,” which looks dated in light of subsequent immunotherapy/vaccine progress"
"the strong user-blaming stance has aged badly; the incident is now a textbook example of platform responsibility for input validation and consistent capability across contexts"
"very early, accurate diagnosis of engineered food and highly manipulative advertising undermining the assumptions of rational-consumer capitalism; exactly the direction later research and policy have gone"
"prediction/claim that nation-states are rapidly becoming obsolete was strongly contradicted by the subsequent decade of rising nationalism and border politics"
"right that Swift would rapidly gain momentum and effectively replace Objective‑C for new iOS/Mac apps; overreaches by predicting Swift as a top‑5 general language"
"offering a Swift cookbook and Playgrounds-friendly content fits well into how people ultimately learned Swift; no strong predictions, but in line with direction of travel"
"right that 2015 was a breakout year for “dangerous drone” incidents and that numbers would grow, but the long‑term risk level stayed lower than the tone suggests"
"right about Ng’s position at the time; in hindsight, AI‑risk discourse became more central, so “stupid digression” aged awkwardly though it reflected 2015 mainstream views"
"overstates “police state” claims but correctly emphasizes secrecy, lack of oversight, and dubious security benefits; later evidence about limited counterterror value and heavy protest surveillance supports much of the concern"
"right that norms on vacation and hours would be slow to change, but the relativistic “who’s to say what works best for them” ages poorly against strong internal opposition and policy reforms"
"very strong, detailed prediction of how a new Zimbabwean currency would be distrusted, used only when unavoidable, and quickly swapped into dollars; matches subsequent events closely"
"correct that *Time* once had real cultural weight and that mass-media coverage influences broad taste, but somewhat behind the curve on how far that had already eroded by 2015"
"right that AOL started closed and failed to keep users isolated, but assumption that Indian users would similarly refuse a walled garden is untested and arguably contradicted by experiences in other countries"
"overconfident that nap-friendly or flexible employers would be rare and that naps must be justified minute-by-minute; remote/hybrid work made that stance look dated"
"accurately identified the need for a “GitHub for mailing lists” and the shortcomings of existing tools; Discourse/Mailman3/Groups.io went almost exactly where they pointed"
"very clear on the downsides of HTML/Electron desktop apps—performance, accessibility, theming—which have indeed been major complaints as Electron went mainstream"
"rightly pushes back on the skewed analogy between birth years and upskirt shots, defending a more sensible boundary between privacy and public interest"
"right about systemic governance problems and the pattern of controversial decisions; somewhat overstates how simple it would have been to “just know” what users would accept"
"right that making national IDs explicitly non-secret can be healthier than the US SSN model, but subsequent practice shows Swedish personnummer still often get treated as semi-secrets in ways that create risk"
"confidently predicted that inclusive terminology changes were fabricated, harmful to minorities, and would damage communities; reality went in the opposite direction, and his broader cultural diagnosis aged especially poorly"
"correct that MCTS itself is mechanically simple, but the assertion that strong Go AIs wouldn’t reveal anything deep or interesting about AI or Go was clearly undercut by AlphaGo’s impact"
"right that this was “a fraction of the complexity” of the Big Dig and that there was no perfect solution; reasonably grounded skepticism without extreme predictions"
"correct that SF was *much* more expensive than Tel Aviv and backed it with data; misses the deeper cross-country wealth-accumulation context the article was about"
"charitable technical explanation—that venous draws were for parallel validation—was wrong; later skepticism that “all parties” were in CYA mode was fair but generic"
"right about embarrassing failures and bias, but badly underestimates how fast and how far core model capabilities would advance in the consumer space"
"correctly framed Che as an experiment alongside Orion and noted that the classic Eclipse IDE would “continue for a long time yet”; that part was accurate, though Eclipse lost a lot of mindshare to VS Code/JetBrains"
"right that laypeople should generally defer to expert consensus; somewhat overstates how completely the “debate is over” on every detail, but directionally correct"
"right that the LLC preserves control and can be tax‑efficient, but “comfy retirement scam” badly understates the scale and seriousness of grants actually made"
"identifies the real and ongoing market-share decline; extrapolation to ~zero by 2019 was wrong, and some takes on management and “shadow of itself” are more rhetorical than analytical"
"overly charitable “not hostile” framing; Philips’ rapid reversal and later communications make it clear this was a misjudged business move, not just neutral tech progress"
"technically right that Avast could, in principle, keep keys local; but doesn’t engage with the empirical reality that AVs *do* phone home with sensitive data"
"calling out that some behaviors are “the wrong side of irresponsible” is fair; doesn’t quite grapple with the later learning curve but directionally right"
"accurate about Rust/Servo being ambitious, but very wrong in describing Mozilla as “flourishing” and Firefox as “more relevant” just as its share and headcount entered a long decline"
"pointed out that many people can get broad Springer access via university/alumni logins and the MyCopy program—still an accurate and important practical note in 2025"
"right that such tools have legitimate uses and that existence alone doesn’t prove “police state,” but too trusting of oversight and judicial controls that later turned out to be weak or easily bypassed"
"consistent emphasis on unambiguous grammar and tooling friendliness; no strong predictions but technically on-point and aligned with where tooling went"
"some good points about the Lisp family and Unix composability, but over-claims about Shen as “lisp flavored haskell” and conflates historical/use categories at times"
"right that selective enforcement is a systemic concern, but wrong in implying the SEC “found” him only after social media; the investigation clearly predated that"
"the suggestion that TAR cloning would likely be easier or more appropriate than CRISPR for fungal genome editing is strongly at odds with the subsequent decade, where CRISPR became the dominant tool in fungal genetics"
"right direction about higher-level C++ abstractions and subsetting C++ to make it safer; the Core Guidelines and safety profiles followed this, though we haven’t “ripped C out” yet"
"correctly cites the Stroustrup/Sutter paper and their opposition to that proposal, but overstates that concepts alone solve the problem and that static_if-style features should be abandoned"
"framed the choice as “facebook, or no internet at all” and claimed “Nobody else is going to give full internet to them”; India’s post‑ban trajectory contradicts both assertions"
"framing non‑24 as “more a choice than a medical disorder” is directly at odds with well‑established clinical evidence and later approvals of specific treatments"
"correct that foreign‑currency use can be a stopgap when local money has collapsed, and that a future switch back to a local currency would require governance reforms that still haven’t really arrived"
"complaint about Steam’s broadband assumptions was fair then; over time, though, Steam’s implicit assumption of high-bandwidth gamers has become even more accurate"
"extends the Myst comparison with thoughtful commentary on puzzle design and links to an analysis article; very in‑tune with how such mechanical puzzles evolved in games and escape rooms"
"historical context on forced Christianization and crypto‑pagan survivals is solid and still relevant; the note that the “slip off diseases and guilt” line smells like Wikipedia embellishment has aged well"
"right that heuristic guessing is fundamentally fragile, but wrong‑headed in treating the Notepad behavior as plausibly “correct” and Vista as possibly introducing the bug; industry consensus went the opposite way"
"claimed we “can’t currently do AR in a reflection” without multiscopic displays; later AR mirror systems showed that practical AR is very doable with simpler means"
"correctly highlighted the key‑management fiasco and the chilling effect of calling the employer; underplayed the genuine CFAA / liability risk Wes created"
"interprets OpenAI as a “right to bear arms”‑style move to arm individuals with AI; OpenAI’s eventual closed‑API posture makes this prediction mostly wrong"
"assertion that usage‑based billing is “very appropriate” ignores the misalignment with ISP cost drivers; right that lack of competition is the deeper problem, but the pricing model itself is not neutral"
"confidently asserted that cold fusion has been replicated “1000s of times” in respected journals; mainstream assessments and the Google Nature study contradict this"
"accurately judged Mac as a low‑priority platform for Twitter and argued for outsourcing; main macro prediction borne out even if some process details were off"
"right about salary‑history being a lowball tactic and about using expectations anchoring; slightly overoptimistic about recruiter–candidate interest alignment"
"overconfident in the health of the patent system, conflates US success with patent efficacy, and proposes a shell-company-trivial rule against patent transfers"
"correct that xto6 missed common constructor/encapsulation patterns, making it dubious for real migrations; his skepticism about the tool specifically aged well"
"right that some value control and code transparency; wrong to rely on “small target” safety — automated scanning and mass exploits make target size less relevant"
"rightly urges not to dismiss D‑Wave and to value progress, but the claim that D‑Wave’s own claims were “very conservative” doesn’t square with their long‑running marketing hype"
"right that ACH is attractive for subscriptions and high-value payments; suggestion that Dwolla should become a Yodlee-like data provider didn’t happen—those roles remained separate in the ecosystem"
"Safari/O’Reilly Online Learning *is* valuable, but comparing a paid subscription to a brief, free access glitch wasn’t really on point; not a prediction so much as tone-deaf context"
"technically correct about color-channel packing differences between real hardware and modern “8-bit,” which remains a key point for authentic emulation"
"technically right that CUDA→OpenCL is often portable, but the implied ease and strategic impact were overstated; that path never shifted the ecosystem"
"correctly notes you can’t use a CP2102 to get a USB host port and that all Pis share a single USB root, but the “you really don’t want such a [KB&M adapter] device” stance was undercut by the later massive popularity of exactly those devices"
"asserted Juniper lied about unaffected versions to push customers into fresh support contracts; no supporting evidence has emerged, and technical analysis of versions contradicts this"
"strongly argued that exceeding signed‑int vector sizes is basically a “very peculiar use case”; with modern RAM sizes and large‑data workloads, this has proven much less rare than claimed"
"good conceptual point separating touch UI from proprietary; mildly overoptimistic about the breadth of great open‑standards mobile apps that would emerge"
"thoughtful, policy‑grounded discussion of structural vs. cultural factors in inequality; not predictive, but solid and consistent with later scholarship"
"dismisses Kaleidoscope as “pretty poor quality” without strong evidence; Black Pixel’s broader reputation and work remained solid; not much predictive content"
"dismissed Rand as a whiner with sour grapes; his later track record at SparkToro and his consistent, constructive transparency contradict that judgment"
"correctly identified the “appeal to worse problems” pattern and emphasized that caring and attention are not strictly zero-sum in practice; this maps well onto later debates around EA vs local obligations"
"suggested this was likely an insider exploit; later analyses point more strongly towards an external, likely state‑level, actor compromising builds rather than a lone employee"
"the blanket “Yes” to blaming the Chinese people for their authoritarian government is a simplistic and largely indefensible take, even leaving predictions aside"
"skeptical about being able to personally afford explicit payment for all consumed content; realistic, and indeed the result is a patchwork of free+paid rather than universal paywalls"
"overestimates NK’s interest/ability in building strong domestic crypto; later evidence points instead to mediocre security and surveillance-focused design"
"identified a UX issue—too many items in one scroll‑heavy list—and suggested a more permanent “Buy from YC companies” directory plus a smaller holiday subset; YC never truly built that polished consumer directory, but the idea was sound and mirrored later trends like VC “portfolio shops”"
"nicely captures the hard part: it’s easier to say “don’t hate” than “don’t do what you sincerely think is right”; resonates with later deradicalization challenges"
"correct on KS being effectively pre-sales and powerful, but overly rosy about crowdfunding being “the best way to raise money for anything” and underestimates execution risk"
"right that human nature is central and that if not FB it’d be another platform; wrong in asserting there’s little reason to question Zuckerberg’s character or FB’s role"
"right that corporations respond to demand and that humans have always envied and desired, but too quick to declare systems “democratic” and exculpate corporate influence; Facebook/Cambridge Analytica, TikTok, etc. show demand is not simply exogenous"
"describes an actual migration from Python 2 to Go; not really predictive but reflects a real pattern where some teams left Python instead of adopting 3"
"correct that pre-bundling a single proprietary read-later service is a big governance decision; overstates that shipping a nontrivial feature automatically means it was “pushed hard” in some unusual way"
"correct that many critics didn’t fully understand PH’s insider tiers, but too dismissive of concerns about opaqueness and curation; PH later changed the model, validating that those concerns were at least partly real"
"concise and accurate about positioning: calling yourself a “design house” or similar brand instead of “freelancer” has indeed been a reliable way to raise perceived value"
"overconfident contrast with Notch/0x10c implying this wouldn’t suffer from the same “letdown” dynamics; in the long run Starfighter also failed to meet the early expectations, albeit after shipping a real product"
"overstates both the effectiveness of “random extra calculations” vs constant‑time and the inevitability of physical compromise; experience over the decade shows physical attacks can be made very expensive and far from guaranteed against hardened designs"
"correct that the author hadn’t shown oil demand in structural decline; too dismissive of the speed at which renewables and EVs would become material, but not yet clearly wrong on their “50 years” horizon"
"points out HTML5 `pattern` as a potential standard machine-readable constraint for passwords; technically sound, though in practice password managers rarely rely on it and sites underuse it"
"skeptical that either higher birth rates or significantly more immigration would happen; Japan has nudged immigration up but not embraced it, and has struggled to move the fertility needle"
"correct that serious development isn’t on iOS, but calling iOS a “bizarre” platform for learning Swift aged badly given Swift Playgrounds and the popularity of mobile coding education"
"right about Android’s ongoing audio-app weakness vs iOS and Csound’s theoretical power, but overestimates how broadly useful the Android port would become"
"the wish for an Oscilloscope Watch to finish: it partially came true, but the device remained a curiosity, not part of a broader open‑watch ecosystem"
"specific prediction that an “American bonsai” aesthetic would be a PR problem internationally and “not an easy sell” proved wrong; the style is now broadly accepted and respected"
"right that the specific “join US wars in the Middle East” framing was overstated, but very wrong to mock concerns about rising nationalism and to treat them as liberal fantasy"
"technically right that GC doesn’t change computability, but underplays the massive practical impact on complexity and concurrency that the rest of the thread—and history—highlights"
"legitimate concerns about SaaS longevity, but the categorical claim that long-session work in browser apps “really sucks” and can’t match native UX was undermined by the success of Onshape, Figma, and others"
"tries to use these findings to support a 4,000‑year post‑flood timeline; subsequent work only moves the Amazon story *further* back in time and does not help a young‑Earth framework"
"largely right that the core value in WL is the curated algorithms/data rather than the language itself; those assets remained proprietary and constrained WL adoption"
"the idea of adding random noise at evaluation and aggregating predictions is close to test-time augmentation / expectation over transformations, which became a standard robustness technique, though not a complete solution"
"desire to base behavior on “what browsers do” rather than specs resonates with pragmatism, but massively undersells the importance of non-browser clients, CDNs, and tooling that all rely on spec-defined behavior"
"early equation of web ads with spam, highlighting their exploitative and tracking‑heavy nature; directionally accurate, though his “just charge money instead” is only partially feasible"
"correct that knowledge without application is weak, but overstates the claim that 100 hours can’t yield meaningful competence in complex fields; many later examples show otherwise"
"suggesting users just tune DPI/font settings is less in line with where web design actually went—sites shifted responsibility to authors rather than users"
"overstated but directionally right: Facebook’s push was fundamentally about power and control over attention, which later scandals made abundantly clear"
"the incredulity that such a broad idea could be patented still looks justified; the comment doesn’t make concrete predictions but its skepticism fits the subsequent consensus that this was a bad patent."
"correct that Mayer inherited a bad hand, but overly generous on “played smart” and on the intrinsic value of core Yahoo; the eventual low‑value sale suggests the market was closer to right"
"correct that D can emulate sum types via library types; in practice the ergonomic gap vs built‑in enums in Rust did matter, but the technical claim holds"
"right that “free” implies aggressive monetization and ad/inspection incentives; slightly too speculative on DPI/ad injection mechanics, but the general privacy/ads concern was sound"
"concerns about Pi SD corruption were valid but the proposed alternative wasn’t strictly necessary; read‑only Pi setups turned out to be sufficient and common"
"strong claim that increased reliance on cellular “can not happen” has been refuted by the massive growth of LTE/5G as primary connectivity; also understates existing and emerging open cellular projects"
"idealistic but directionally sound point about not letting the worst legacy clients dictate security forever; in practice, the industry did move closer to this stance"
"captures the enduring complaint that Java’s constraints feel pedantic to some, and correctly notes FP languages would get similar hate if they were as ubiquitous"
"right that technologists who design centralized, surveillant systems bear responsibility, but “laws are not a solution” and “surveillance state does not follow laws” is too absolute given that legal frameworks have made some difference"
"correct that severe joint injuries often end elite careers and don’t regenerate fully; but over‑generalizes this small, extreme population to everyday exercise"
"good up-to-date summary of KGS bot strength, MCTS’s importance, and that reaching pro level “seems quite possible” from existing methods; broadly vindicated"
"right about model decay and institutional risk; overly pessimistic about ML’s usefulness as a black box feeding further computation and about its ability to surpass human reliability in narrow tasks"
"fair observation that the article isn’t inspiring and doesn’t tie math to graphics well; a bit subjective but borne out by later comments and resources"
"the core assertion that “Django isn't popular enough” to justify a niche driver is the reverse of what the next decade showed; Django remained hugely popular, while RethinkDB became the niche."
"asserted near‑inevitable expulsions or genocide if immigration continued; despite tensions and some violence, nothing close to that general outcome occurred in most recipient countries"
"correct that many QS tools remain shallow and that behavior change is the hard part; too dismissive in calling most of it vanity/“as useful as front-page visitor counts,” given the real benefits millions have since seen from wearables and tracking"
"highlighted strong Dutch rules and a real-world case of forced data reset; while the legal details are nuanced, the general point about stricter EU/Netherlands constraints was borne out"
"interesting actor+SignalR+WS architecture; accurate that this can work well, but the “websockets are all‑or‑nothing and REST/db/cache is obsolete” stance didn’t generalize to the broader industry"
"declared the traditional Windows desktop platform “not viable” for normal users and that Windows Store apps must succeed for Windows to survive; Windows survived and thrived largely without that"
"overstates danger of government action vs climate damage; skepticism of India’s solar push aged poorly as solar became cheap and central to India’s energy strategy"
"argues that banning Free Basics deprives poor users of their only option and calls net‑neutrality restrictions a kind of theft; the subsequent data price collapse and broad access to the full Internet are strong counter‑evidence"
"correctly framed the bottleneck as human absorption rather than availability and anticipated a need for better technology to bridge that—partially realized via LLM tools"
"floats a strategy of going abroad and then coming back; while similar platforms did succeed in Europe, Flytenow itself never rode that path back into the U.S. market"
"the Apple-curated-content concern is broadly consistent with the tighter control and curation Apple applied over time, though an official offline Wikipedia/OSM bundle never appeared at all"
"pulled out and emphasized the core, timeless insight about backdoors being ideal attack surfaces; more interpretive than predictive but dead-on conceptually"
"speculated this might be the “pivotal moment of the decade” with a 12–18 month recession window; the genuinely pivotal events were COVID and the 2021–22 inflation shock several years later"
"right that people without phones are invisible to these systems, but the premise that homeless people generally lack phones was already shaky and became even less true over time"
"right about REST/microservice trends and corporate cultural inertia; slightly optimistic about how widely these patterns would be adopted internally."
"Goodhart’s law and incentive critique are on point; but “very difficult to trust any scientific reporting related to current affairs” overgeneralizes and underestimates the substantial amount of good work done, especially during the pandemic"
"insightful on many packaging pain points and correctly wanting unified config and better tooling, but the “trivial applications only” claim and dismissal of virtualenvs aged poorly as Python thrived with and then improved its packaging story"
"overconfidently labels the legacy-wrapper pattern as “how to kill an OSS project”; history and modern migration practice contradict this, even if his general caution about needless forks has some merit"
"reasonable skepticism about historical accuracy of the show; later assessments largely agree it’s dramatically heightened but broadly respectful of the key scientific and historical contours"
"political economy argument about waterfront land values holds water, but repeated, confident predictions of Big Dig–level disaster, inadequate engineering, and strictly-worse outcomes did not pan out"
"assertion that the author “needs to find something else to do before something tragic occurs” has been falsified by a decade of continued safe activity and improved practice"
"realistic about large‑company decision processes, but overly optimistic that this showed Philips had “good mechanisms” and came out ahead reputationally"
"overstates that federation “doesn’t make sense,” but correctly centers user convenience/network effects and is directionally right about centralization winning"
"innovative employee‑friendly structure and broadly aligned with where more ethical startups are trying to go; details are tax‑fragile and not generally replicable, but intent and direction were good"
"on target about social contagion and how hard it is for parents to fully resist mass culture; the specific “parenting may not matter much” line maps to ongoing behavioral‑genetics debates but isn’t really testable from this decade"
"right about the power and trajectory of camera‑based SLAM in general, but wrong/too aggressive claiming LIDAR “isn’t required anymore” and would be overtaken in “a couple of years” for cars"
"publicly and confidently questioned another user’s identity as a judge based on flimsy evidence, leading to a moderator rebuke; the substantive legal/technical points he made elsewhere are less the issue than the failed “gotcha”"
"overstates “fundamental property of capitalism” language, but broadly right that profit incentives can create or worsen problems to sell solutions; later evidence around opioids, junk food, and ad tech partly vindicates him"
"correct observation that an attacker can move the probe closer, which is exactly why board‑ and chip‑level countermeasures, not just USB‑line tricks, are needed"
"overstated “laptops” and low DPI as the main thing holding SVG back; high‑DPI laptops proliferated and SVG adoption grew strongly regardless, with workflows improving beyond “1x + 2x raster”"
"solid on capitalism vs historical alternatives and on the scale of cancer funding; a bit optimistic about “change regulations and profit will fix research,” but broadly reasonable"
"correctly interprets the “Coke makes you unhappy” line and points to addictive/unhealthy dynamics; broadly in line with later public health consensus"
"reasonably grounded comparisons of U.S. vs Japanese mass killing, but somewhat overconfident about precise Native American death numbers in a very uncertain area"
"correct that React’s mostly‑JS approach is attractive vs Angular 1; perhaps too optimistic that teams would readily upgrade Angular 1 → 2 instead of sometimes jumping to React/Vue"
"framing Beijing/Shanghai as hard tests is fair; AVs haven’t conquered the densest parts of those cities yet, but they *are* operating in parts of Beijing, which partially validates the challenge framing"
"accurately notes legislative self‑exemptions like insider trading rules; fits with the broader theme of elites designing different rules for themselves"
"identifies real pollution issues but rejects anthropogenic warming and dismisses paleo‑CO₂ reconstructions; that stance is even less tenable after a decade of strong warming and better data"
"right that devs would take on more QA and DevOps, but “traditional QA is pretty much dead” and “anyone who thinks otherwise will be obsoleted” clearly overshot"
"right about long-term importance of DRM-free ownership for some users and critical of “digital renting”; wrong in economic intuition about why “rental” models thrive despite non-rivalrous goods"
"optimistic about Wine+Linux on PS4 enabling many PC games; technically true, though in practice the platform remained a niche curiosity rather than a major Linux gaming driver"
"claims that a countable set of pixels can “hold any information” so no bound; mathematically true for abstract information, but sidesteps the physical bounds the article was about"
"normative critique of software patents stands, but specific claim that BoA was clearly “abusing the patent system to ban competition” hasn’t been borne out in action"
"accurate description of PCIe passthrough and IOMMU needs; prediction that bhyve would likely gain such support was broadly borne out, though GPU passthrough never became as solid as on KVM/Xen"
"correct that people mainly use Office 365 for the desktop apps and Exchange/OneDrive; too categorical in saying browsers “aren’t fast enough” for big web apps—modern web apps got quite capable"
"understandable “one strike and you’re out” stance on trust; empirically, lots of people kept buying Hue and it did not become uniquely abusive vs. peers"
"shifting from bookmarks to Evernote looked smart at the time, but long-term dependence on a single proprietary app now appears risky; more commentary on personal practice than a prediction, though"
"the claim that Europe is “200–400 years behind due to the Dark Ages” is strongly out of step with modern historical scholarship and was effectively refuted within the thread."
"asserted a non‑mainstream mechanism for fatty liver involving low dietary cholesterol and claimed increasing dietary cholesterol is curative—claims not borne out by subsequent evidence"
"accurately anticipates that private exploitation of lunar resources will raise thorny sovereignty and rights issues; that’s exactly what the Artemis Accords vs ILRS split is about"
"intuition about legal corner‑cutting isn’t wrong—courts did find overreach—but the sweeping “when government gets involved the law is ignored” is overly broad"
"correct that policy direction favored moving off copper, but mischaracterized how much leverage individual customers would have to block copper retirement"
"political sensitivity can affect criticism at the margins, but this turned out to be a side issue compared to core methodological and incentive problems"
"questions the sense of the restrictions and leans toward a protectionist explanation; later developments still point mostly to safety and systemic-risk concerns"
"predicted that repeated mass shootings would move Second Amendment repeal into the Overton window; gun‑rights jurisprudence has instead strengthened, and repeal remains far outside mainstream policy"
"the incredulity about experts being unable to follow a proof turned out to be misplaced—the situation persisted—but the questions framed the right conceptual puzzle"
"defends the 200-label result as still usable in context; fair for the specific demo, but underestimates how important UX smoothing and interaction would become"
"right that servers *can* refuse content to adblockers, but predictions of a slide toward broad IP‑level exclusion and moral outrage at anti‑anti‑adblock tools did not pan out widely"
"tongue‑in‑cheek about preferring Chinese backdoors; not really falsifiable, but it does foreshadow ongoing concerns about *all* nation‑state supply chains"
"their plan to patent genetics “post‑TPP” implicitly assumed a TPP‑shaped world that never materialized for the US; their general critique of IP as monopolistic holds up, but the concrete TPP framing aged poorly."
"claimed Facebook would now both underpay and terrorize researchers such that good guys avoid them and FB becomes an easier target; Meta’s bounty program has remained large and active"
"correct that we have partial understanding and that “why” may not look like a single clean slogan; somewhat underestimates how much real theory would develop"
"anticipated intense competition and margin pressure, but badly missed on 6–10 year full automation and on competitors stealing Uber’s network effect; Uber remains dominant with human drivers"
"sortition remains niche for legislatures but has gained ground in citizens’ assemblies; the Aristotle quote is on point in current democratic-theory debates"
"mischaracterized OpenAI as essentially a marketing stunt and underestimated both AI’s potential danger and the seriousness with which it would be treated"
"correct that persecution of scientists like Lavoisier can set fields back, but doubling down on Europe being “largely ignorant” during the so‑called Dark Ages is not supported by current scholarship."
"paints feminism as uniquely bullying and LGBT activism as uniquely welcoming; the next decade showed “call‑out” problems and internal conflicts across *all* movements"
"calling WWII “probably the last big colonial war” is mostly right in the classic resource‑seizure sense, but Russia’s territorial aggression in Ukraine and other 21st‑century land grabs complicate the neat narrative"
"technically right that Python’s GIL is a real limitation and Perl lacks a single GIL, but overestimates how much that would matter for language choice in the following decade"
"concerns about “all-in-one” and a single-company-controlled protocol were partly off; JMAP ended up modular, capability-based, and IETF-governed, though they were right that HTTP helps with firewall traversal"
"invokes a real class of ideas—bio‑terraforming—but with a grossly unrealistic “century or two” timescale and no acknowledgement of the scale of Venus’s CO₂ and energy problem"
"captured the combo of capital abundance, demographic slowdown, and speculative zero‑sum activity; maybe too pessimistic about “no new tech,” but the core macro story holds"
"correct that Xcode supports run-script phases, but the criticism that they’re brittle for dependency-aware builds held up; not really predictive either way"
"calling HTTP status codes “legacy cruft” and suggesting almost everything should be 200; very much at odds with how modern JSON/HTTP APIs, CDNs, and tooling evolved"
"sweeping, clearly wrong claim that “smart crooks don’t break the law” and that breaking the law isn’t cost‑effective; badly disproven by the decade’s cybercrime economics"
"right that PH is partially a gatekeeper and native‑advertising‑like; wrong/overheated in concluding Hoover is “completely corrupt” and that none of this would change"
"claim that “DynamoDB is way cheaper than RDS; fine for small apps” is generally false in practice; for low‑traffic small apps RDS or Aurora Serverless is often cheaper and easier"
"solid focus on build servers, binary repos, and end‑to‑end integrity as the real attack surface – exactly the supply‑chain concerns that became central later"
"right that “cancer” is many diseases and that progress would be incremental, but “no vaccines are likely” was too pessimistic given the growing role of HPV/HBV vaccines and emerging therapeutic cancer vaccines"
"speculation about secret Russian private-sector capabilities and technological edge has largely been contradicted by subsequent events, especially in Syria and Ukraine"
"experience-based skepticism about overusing tiny types is fair; practice has settled on “use them where they buy you something,” aligning with this more cautious view"
"“there ought to be a law” about insider misuse; in many places there already was, but the intuition that CFAA was wrong and something narrower was needed was sound"
"correct that overlong copyright can create access problems, but “orphan work” characterization for this specific book looks wrong in light of the 2017 Rutgers reissue"
"skepticism about maintaining scrapers for many sites is justified; in practice, this has proven laborious and has pushed many people toward general “reader mode” extractors rather than per-site parsers"
"Doom vs. Marathon/Dark Forces is personal taste; the criticism about Doom 2’s thin story is fair, though the later success of arena-focused Doom 2016 shows “little story” isn’t inherently boring"
"earnest and partially grounded, but the €100k‑index‑fund‑in‑Thailand plan assumes overly optimistic returns and underestimates volatility, inflation, life and visa risks"
"correctly focused on the importance of free toolchains and contributed to early work on Xilinx bitstreams, which helped build momentum even if full Xilinx liberation remains incomplete"
"strong on reproducibility and functional package management; right that reproducibility matters, but overstated “language-specific PMs are terrible” and underestimated their continued dominance"
"right that a dedicated “FRP language” was not necessary for the mainstream and that Elm wouldn’t dominate; overstated the REPL issue and underestimates Elm’s architectural influence"
"correctly bet that PHP would keep evolving by borrowing from other languages and that JavaScript’s churn would make PHP attractive for long-term maintenance"
"overconfident claims that R is the main MATLAB successor and that “open source always wins”; Python’s rise and MATLAB’s persistence refute the strong form of these claims"
"dismisses the need for simple NoSQL stores; hindsight shows plenty of valid lightweight use cases where tools like TinyDB, or even just shelve/SQLite/JSON stores, are very handy"
"overstates how quickly we’d “lock in” 2°C and how simple it would be to solve via lifestyle alone, but is directionally right about the speed of infrastructure lock‑in and the sufficiency of available technologies in principle."
"fair concerns about Mozilla’s communication and Pocket optics; but underestimated how early and open the Thunderbird discussion actually was on Mozilla governance lists"
"very good call that G‑Sync’s closed approach would be undercut by FreeSync/Adaptive‑Sync adoption; overstates the threat this posed to Nvidia’s overall position."
"reasonable thesis that Raku would matter more as an idea source than as a mainstream tool; largely correct, though the influence is smaller and more niche than implied"
"Pythonista envy and desire for a Pythonic BEAM language was understandable, but the ecosystem evolved in other directions; Elixir itself, not a Pythonic twin, became the main story"
"predicted PyPy4/STM and Python 2 would be the real future, that Python 3 would effectively fail, and that 2.x libraries would dominate “for a very long time”; reality went almost entirely the other way"
"nailed the shift from “ads are annoying” to “ads are tracking/malware/analytics beacons” and the need for privacy‑focused tools; this became the mainstream framing"
"concerns about reproducibility and value in digital art were prescient and match later debates around NFTs and AI art, though they didn’t anticipate some of the new mechanisms the market would try"
"politicized but essentially correct that government‑driven backdoors and warrantless access are core to the long‑term policy debate this incident fueled"
"factually supported the Venezuela shortages analogy, but overconfident about dismissing concerns over phrasing; culturally that stance has aged poorly"
"assertion that finding a TCO‑positive AWS scenario would be exceptional is contradicted by a decade of real‑world cases where AWS clearly beats DIY infra when staff/time are counted"
"right that Raku would be a “testbed” for interesting features more than a dominant production language; the implied “next Ruby out of Raku” hasn’t happened—yet"
"wrong on Go generics being a likely permanent “no” and on Swift “blowing up” for web backends; Swift server remains niche, Go added generics and dominates that space"
"technically right that the low moon‑hoax rate doesn’t *logically* kill the conclusion, but underestimates how weak/ideological that paper and similar work would look in hindsight"
"similarly wrong that HTTPS adds “no upside” for reading and has “too many downsides”; underestimated both the security/privacy benefits and the rapid drop in cost/friction via Let’s Encrypt"
"correct that software failures in complex systems are common and worrying, but the blanket distrust of big‑tech engineering for safety‑critical uses is overstated given Waymo’s comparatively strong safety record."
"right that even with shorter copyright, trademarks would still prevent you from just making “Star Wars VIII”; that’s exactly how IP protection now works around Mickey, too"
"legal analysis that Android’s non-compatibility doomed fair use turned out wrong; understandable at the time, but firmly contradicted by the Supreme Court"
"largely correct on Signal’s merits, the usability vs privacy tradeoff, and the pattern of people preferring convenience; slightly underestimates how long it would take Signal to get desktop/multi‑device"
"claim that only Android is potentially secure and Apple/Microsoft OSes are “fundamentally flawed” is opposite to prevailing security evidence over the last decade"
"right that RNNs can learn language-like behavior, but overstates both their “human-like performance” at that time and their relevance to settling innateness"
"right to question over‑interpretation and extrapolation, but the emphasis on potential harm from clearing Aβ hasn’t been strongly borne out by subsequent clinical data"
"correct that theory matters, but practically wrong in downplaying the necessity of control/no-treatment arms for estimating placebo effects; proposed alternative has not borne out"
"accurately flags that real AAA work is built on evolving large codebases and that “modifying legacy engines” is under-taught; this remains true a decade later"
"captures the QOI argument but underestimates how dangerous the “anything goes but trust the implementation” stance would look a decade later in safety/security contexts"
"technically competent explanation of interlacing in general, but applies it incorrectly to the NES and early consoles; proven wrong by later widespread 240p documentation"
"leans heavily into the “more intelligence → more anxiety because you see more risks” narrative, which lacks strong empirical support at the population level"
"practically accurate about how people find ROMs, but completely sidesteps the legal/ethical side which has become more explicitly discussed over time"
"honest question and good instinct that “why” questions can be slippery; misses the specific physics motivation but that’s more lack of context than error"
"solid explanation that “break it into pieces” doesn’t magically remove complexity and that business pressures favor shipping monoliths; very much borne out by later monolith vs microservices case studies."
"thoughtful general market arguments but underestimated India’s institutional capacity to reject Facebook’s framing and over‑trusted “market will sort it out” in a context where regulators very much did"
"overly optimistic that we are “almost there” on technology ending environmental damage; progress on EVs and renewables is real, but we are nowhere near environmental steady state"
"correct that regulators forced better parental controls, but underestimates the scale of the problem and the later political attention to loot boxes and gaming disorder"
"right that market solutions and cheap connectivity *can* be powerful, but overestimated Free Basics’ importance, downplayed structural harm, and assumed alternatives didn’t exist—India’s later Jio‑driven boom under NN rules undercuts the pro–Free Basics stance"
"reasonably correct that renewables/EVs can technically replace much oil use and that there’s no sudden “peak oil apocalypse,” but substantially overconfident that imminent self‑driving fleets would make new urban rail a bad investment"
"pragmatic assessment that Thunderbird was the least‑bad cross‑platform GUI client and worth sticking with; that remained true for many users through the 2020s"
"understandable enthusiasm for the product idea, but over-optimistic about the likelihood that this particular team or the KS funds would result in meaningful features"
"right that many TLS web attacks rely on scripting, but too dismissive about the broader implications of IND-CCA failures and veering into somewhat off-target Signal criticism"
"correct that we can adapt partially to time shifts, but dismissing people who can’t function early as “dumb” and treating clock time as “just a number” ignores robust chronotype and adolescent sleep research"
"significantly underestimated how comfortable and ubiquitous smartphone‑centric computing would become; kayaking aside, this was the most off‑target take"
"anticipates partial adoption: keep the good bits like verb‑based tasks, drop heavy context tagging; matches how many people actually ended up using GTD ideas"
"speculation that high-IQ kids particularly benefit from earlier reading lacks support; most evidence suggests advanced kids often self-teach regardless"
"the “crimes officially sanctioned by the state” = oxymoron stance is normatively tidy but descriptively at odds with how international law and human‑rights practice now routinely discuss “state crime”"
"advocates financial penalties for mistakes; illegal in the described jurisdiction and contrary to modern high‑reliability and psychological‑safety practices"
"nailed that HR-XML-style standards already existed and that robust parsing → ATS acquisition was the real game, which is exactly how the space evolved"
"correctly points out that personification is the *point* of the article; more literary than predictive but aligned with how embodiment tech is discussed later."
"correct that many APIs are effectively single-endpoint RPC and that error payloads matter, but wrong to describe HTTP as “definitely” just a transport layer; modern practice heavily leverages its application semantics"
"suggests cars should kill whomever is at fault; actual liability and ethics discussions are more nuanced, and AVs are not implemented with such direct “blame” logic."
"confidently dismisses any risk that users will be satisfied with a walled garden, without evidence; subsequent surveys in the Global South and Facebook’s own dominance contradict this optimism"
"10GB/month as “fair usage” aged very badly, and the idea that this is “largely only an issue” where there is no competition misread both future usage patterns and the persistence of monopoly problems"
"right that any president gets similar briefings and pressure from the security apparatus; too dismissive in saying “little to do with privacy” given the law’s surveillance implications"
"right about personalization being a genuine functional advantage for Google and DDG’s difficulty with ambiguous/local terms; slightly underestimates how much DDG would later improve"
"suggested DSF “just do consulting/SaaS”; in practice DSF stayed a non-profit steward and did not become a product company, largely for reasons hinted at in the thread"
"right to treat Kickstarter receipts as liabilities akin to pre-orders; too rigid on “no interest = not debt” in the face of very debt-like cash-flow implications"
"legally correct that consumer maps are not used as primary boundary evidence; but significantly underestimates how much China would weaponize consumer maps and corporate UIs as propaganda and diplomatic tools"
"correct that dock unions can be tough actors, but the claim that they are effectively impossible to disrupt and would trigger global sabotage against non-union ports did not match subsequent reality"
"correct that “we’re paying for bad design decisions” is plainer English than “conceptual debt”; but too dismissive of the value metaphors can bring when used carefully"
"right that the brain is a black box and that depression is hard, but overly pessimistic that meaningful treatments require total reverse‑engineering of the brain; the subsequent success of ketamine, TMS, etc. shows “blunt hacks” can work"
"romantic metaphor about the internet “healing misconfigurations” via replication maps loosely onto how LibGen/Sci‑Hub operate, but also glosses over legal and ethical issues"
"the prediction that we should or would move away from aggressive compiler optimization towards simple compilers and hardware/JIT “crunching on C” did not materialize; compilers got more sophisticated and central"
"right that mixed teams can create fairness and latency problems; wrong in the absolutist stance that co‑location is always “most effective” and in the envy‑driven framing"
"right about form factors and Windows 8, but calling cross-platform/web-cost arguments “delusional” aged poorly given the success of web/SaaS and JS-based cross-platform stacks"
"enthusiasm for a general-purpose, BayesDB-powered personal automation ecosystem didn’t really materialize; automation did grow, but via different technologies and in narrower forms"
"right to notice ecosystem churn and complexity problems, but the implied “SPAs aren’t the future” angle didn’t match the massive SPA wave of the late 2010s"
"NYC rivers “still fairly disgusting” and skepticism about enforcement is too cynical; conditions and enforcement have improved and continued improving over the decade"
"overestimated how trivial Node upgrades are and underestimated Rails’ real‑world upgrade path and value; the “hour‑long Node upgrades vs painful Rails” contrast has not held up"
"sensible skepticism of holistic cancer “cures” and realistic about facing a diagnosis; slightly misread Jobs’ prognosis, but that was later corrected in-thread"
"right that vague policies create perceived unfairness; framing “FB feels your bug is worth X” ignores that companies must also price in legal and trust considerations"
"the “Google insider trading” fantasy highlights real incentive issues but veers into movie‑plot territory; not very connected to what actually happened in this domain"
"portrayed Microsoft as an obviously “sinking ship” that Apple and open source would trounce; subsequent MS performance under Nadella decisively contradicts this"
"strong points about the need for a standard RNG and about C’s failures, but underestimated how much ergonomic sugar like `rng.uniform` would matter and overtrusted platform defaults."
"runtime-deferral as the practical answer to avoiding cascading edits has not matched the broad shift toward richer static typing plus incremental tooling"
"technically accurate in a few comparisons, but substantially over-optimistic about C++-based language-level isolation and the feasibility/practice of proving safety that way"
"overly pessimistic that many passes would “end badly” for performance; multi-pass designs have been broadly vindicated, even in non-functional implementations"
"right that Flask wasn’t dead and that micro-frameworks have fewer reasons for frequent releases; missed how active Flask’s future would be but directionally correct"
"overstates things by implying FISC “rubberstamps all requests, no matter how ridiculous”; later disclosures show some pushback and modifications, even if the court is still too deferential"
"strong claim that photo menus “treat customers like children” and don’t exist in Europe; culturally narrow and out of step with how visual menus now dominate online"
"the Mary Poppins “make it a game” framing nicely captures the enduring insight that adding fun/constraint can change behavior; broadly consistent with later practice"
"correct that “experience instead of pay” rhetoric is often used to exploit; but too absolutist—ignores that some startup roles *do* yield disproportionate learning and upside"
"correct in some narrow economic-theory points, but badly underestimates the practical power of corporations to shape desires, environments, and “public” space; the subsequent decade’s attention-economy harms and UPF/obesity research undercut his confidence in rational, unconstrained consumers"
"concern about being forced into obscure languages is plausible but didn’t manifest around PogoScript specifically; more broadly, developers *were* pushed into CoffeeScript/TypeScript in some shops, so the worry is not totally unfounded"
"conceptually right that centralized infrastructure enables dragnet surveillance and distributed infra would help; over a decade, distribution didn’t meaningfully materialize"
"sweeping claim that any Chinese‑made device sold abroad should be assumed rooted; supply‑chain risk is real, but this is much broader than evidence supports"
"Recognized that Netflix’s “brute force” sampling approach likely had *less* overhead than instrumentation; this is exactly how the industry converged on profiling in production."
"accurate on MAX_PATH being a real issue at the time and that npm v3 was partly a workaround; slightly too pessimistic that Microsoft would “never” fix it"
"validly criticized WaPo’s page bloat and 3rd‑party overload; while HTTPS improved, the broader industry problem of heavy, crash‑prone news pages only worsened"
"good read on Azure as Microsoft’s future and on open‑sourcing .NET to keep developers, though overstated how much privacy backlash would constrain adoption"
"vision of sandboxed-by-default Windows apps reducing the need for AV partly realized with AppContainer, sandboxing, etc., but far from eliminating AV"
"very prescient on the strategic harm of closing Freebase and concentrating KGs inside big companies; significantly overstated the immediate damage to AI research and misread some data-scale comparisons"
"right about YouTube hostility needing to end, but strongly wrong about “must beat PS4 performance or be niche” and about analog triggers as a must‑have"
"confidently wrong on Firefox OS “definitely” having a future and Servo transition giving Firefox a competitive advantage; misreads how those bets would play out"
"argues pharma is a poor fit for pure free-market capitalism and suggests heavy public funding; partially validated by the rise of public–private partnerships and pull incentives"
"skepticism toward the Android-team-as-benevolent-dictator idea ended up justified—Android never led a Friendly C dialect—but the comment is more reaction than argument"
"dismissive of quantum risks in a way that looks increasingly out of step with the subsequent seriousness of PQ standardization, though quantum computers capable of breaking RSA still don’t exist"
"overstated “Republicans killed funding for public TV,” and the idea that Elmo‑centrism is *primarily* a post‑defunding capitalism effect ignores Sesame Workshop’s long‑standing merchandising model"
"asserted the founders’ religion didn’t prevent them from “scamming people” without real evidence, conflating review concerns with an attack on religion."
"accurately notes that the bottleneck isn’t dreaming up funding models but implementing them—borne out by the slow, partial uptake of pull incentives like the PASTEUR Act"
"argued for orthogonality and not tying oneself to a specific webserver; while integrated solutions thrived, the desire for decoupled clients remained valid for many deployments"
"the desire for “NoHTML/NoCSS/NoJS” anticipated the continued push for higher-level abstractions over the web stack, even though we never escaped JS itself"
"writes off the field as too “poke and see” to be interesting; in hindsight, this decade became one of the most scientifically and practically transformative in CS"
"“Hacks like this delay progress” didn’t really pan out; email did not progress to richer, safer dynamic content—these hacks remained the only workable path rather than blocking something better"
"the idea that IT systems and transparency will “solve large‑scale corruption” has not aged well in a decade of leaks, surveillance, and persistent corruption"
"the claim that old microcomputer capabilities are “exactly” what a modern watch can handle badly underestimates how far beyond that line watches already were and would go."
"insightful on how academic/intellectual status competition is increasingly tied to economic anxiety and the shrinking middle class; the 2015–2025 period of rising inequality, credentialism, and status anxiety is consistent with this"
"correct that such a repository would be hugely impactful, but badly wrong that it’s “so fucking simple” and easily solved by throwing a few billion dollars at it."
"the jab about programmers only knowing HTTP missed that HTTP/JSON was chosen here for solid technical/deployment reasons and became the norm for similar APIs"
"good concrete example of why tying UI language to voice/navigation language is bad UX; exactly the sort of problem platforms have gradually had to fix"
"correct that FBI felt burned by the White House and that later politicians would be more openly pro-law-enforcement, but over-pessimistic about courts and the inevitability of anti-encryption law"
"overstates uniformity—“the government literally runs everything”—but correct that Chinese firms are deeply subject to state demands and that there have been credible backdoor concerns in some domestic vendors"
"good distinction between “trust” and “faith” in science, but over‑optimistic about testing string theory within ~20 years and about black‑hole accelerators yielding string signatures."
"speculated India might let Facebook invest heavily then renege; instead, India just blocked Free Basics early. The broader point about India as a risky regulatory environment is debatable but not borne out here"
"overconfident claims that “without ads there is no internet”, that subscription/paywall models can’t work, that paywalls would devastate access, and heavy reliance on dubious “implicit contract” arguments; the last decade has given a much more nuanced, mixed outcome"
"right that the GIL limits easy multi‑threading, and that Numba could yield C‑like performance; too absolutist in saying Python makes it “impossible to effectively make use of separate cores”"
"overly trusts Google’s “completely removing information about individual users” line; underestimates the modern view that re-identifiability keeps it in the realm of personal data"
"very strong, forward-looking discussion of why you often can’t/shouldn’t obsess over fitting parametric distributions and the importance of limit theorems; slight markdown for overconfident Poisson-traffic claim that didn’t match real-world web behavior"
"asserts that climate models and CO₂-driven warming are effectively debunked and that climate science is “done”; the subsequent decade of warming and scientific work has strongly refuted this"
"positive assessment of Swift as a well-designed, modern, productive language is broadly vindicated, even if some wishlist features evolved differently"
"reasonable question about TAM, but in hindsight clearly underestimated how far Atlassian could expand beyond “specialized tech” into generalized work management"
"partly right about many businesses growing via boring ramps, but significantly underestimates the long-term upside of avoiding porn and overstates “lost respect” for that choice"
"highlighted and implicitly endorsed a long comment predicting Windows tablets would surpass iPad within a year and that Surface/UWP would drive a new mobile ecosystem; nearly all of that proved wrong"
"methodologically sound insistence on quantifying “failure” with data rather than accepting rhetoric; later work has produced exactly the kinds of pipeline and burden metrics they were asking for"
"promoted mailroad.co promising “unlimited, disposable email for all”; the service never became notable, and disposable addresses stayed a niche feature inside other products rather than a paradigm shift."
"undervalues conceptual/statistical thinking without heavy algebra and mischaracterizes “it depends” as a sign of weak training; both contradicted by how the field evolved"
"accurate remarks on grant bureaucracy and topic fashion; both remained powerful distortions, especially visible in COVID and “security”/“sustainability” framing"
"right that bonsai trees being healthy is central, but the categorical “they don’t ‘feel’ anything” is more confident than current plant-sentience debates really justify"
"right about taxis being terrible in many cities and Uber setting the new service standard, though somewhat dismissive of the real consumer-protection issues"
"tweet‑shaming as a lever on corporate behavior is hit‑and‑miss; Apple’s course changes here were driven more by strategy and regulation than social media pressure"
"connecting to Augur was a natural idea but prediction markets never became a core data feed for tools like this; reasonable vision that mostly didn’t materialize."
"correct about NED funding WUC and about nationalism being a classic tool; badly underestimates and normalizes Chinese repression of minorities, which looks very wrong post‑Xinjiang revelations"
"neutral technical note about Unicode operators; the underlying bet that Unicode syntax would become normal in code hasn’t really come true outside a few niches"
"warning about SBCL not working on “all VPS” due to memory overcommit was technically grounded but misleadingly broad; in practice SBCL runs fine on common VPS providers"
"correct that popular microbiome books can be speculative and that fermentation can alter seed components; but badly overstated grain/seed “toxicity to mammals”"
"solid explanation of static vs dynamic dispatch and why Swift’s model matters for performance; slightly overstated the impossibility/undesirability of static compilation for JavaScript, which subsequent developments like WebAssembly have changed, but largely accurate about Swift’s lack of a JIT."
"equates Mint’s credential-based flow to OAuth, which is technically incorrect and glosses over the very real security distinction highlighted later by regulators"
"argued it was more likely unreviewed code or an imported library rather than a malicious insertion; subsequent research showed very deliberate, tailored backdoors"
"voiced a legitimate structural worry about vague financial laws and politics, but in this case over‑ascribed the arrest to outrage rather than long‑running fraud probes"
"pushed for DNS-based, reusable key auth; the particular design never became standard, but the intuition that DNS automation could be made easy was largely borne out"
"observation about education shifting from Scheme/ASM/C toward Java-heavy curricula was broadly in line with trends, though Python became at least as prominent"
"right that regulation and insurance lagged and that Uber would aggressively lobby; wrong that Uber would soon “acknowledge” drivers as employees and broadly provide traditional benefits"
"broadly right about persistent German skilled-labor shortages, the role of immigration, and tuition policy; overstates some specifics—e.g., women at ~50% in engineering—and is too glib about “if the current population doesn’t learn, it’s their own fault” given persistent inequality"
"patent‑ideology discussion mostly orthogonal to outcomes; concerns about “not really patent‑free” are technically nuanced but not borne out as practically important here"
"correct about admin-controlled ChromeOS enabling MITM, but the “one laptop can’t wreck your network” stance was badly out of line with how real-world breaches played out"
"reasonable monopoly/antitrust worry, but “no demand at all” for ML-based CAPTCHA solvers was simply wrong; ML solvers became an important tool in abuse ecosystems"
"accurate about the ugly stdlib and bad tutorials, but overstated that “no one will honestly say php is a good language” and that its “shittiness is not going away”"
"correct that average users are at high risk and that ransomware is real; wrong about Microsoft’s incentives and Defender’s eventual quality and importance"
"Jungian/MBTI speculation isn’t well supported scientifically, but pointing out that people can be harsher on themselves than on others aligns somewhat with contemporary research on self-criticism"
"good nuanced points about how to communicate science and about feedbacks; occasionally drifts into over‑generalized philosophy of science but remains broadly pro‑science"
"perceptive link between identity threat and male violence, but speculative claims about making shootings “emasculating” lack evidence and are asserted too strongly"
"claims VW cheating was “better for climate” and that CO₂ is “not dangerous”; both contradict established climate science and subsequent evidence of accelerating impacts."
"treated “200 tests in lab review” as meaningful and implied more FDA approvals would come; in reality no such turnaround occurred, and the company collapsed"
"dismissed JMAP as a “RESTful shit fest”; the eventual RFCs and working implementations show a carefully designed, coherent protocol, not a half-baked fad"
"raised the “proofs beyond human practical comprehension” issue thoughtfully; that concern looks more justified, though we still lack concrete examples"
"speculates that basic income would nicely support informal repair work; full UBI hasn’t materialized, but the intuition that unconditional support could enable low‑margin community services is widely echoed in policy discussions"
"raises a sharp evolutionary question about restless babies; doesn’t pursue it far, but later work on alloparenting and infant sleep makes the question look insightful"
"right that broadband IR vision in warm‑blooded animals is hard; a bit too hand‑wavy and partially wrong about the generality of “creatures with infrared vision are usually cold blooded”"
"overconfident claim that mammals are the upper bound on “very large form factor” organisms; biomechanically the scaling point is valid, but the mammal-only statement is plainly contradicted by dinosaurs and large arthropods, as was pointed out in-thread"
"“Text is the king” is fine as preference but substantially wrong as a forecast given the subsequent dominance of video and audio in mainstream online consumption"
"claim that “every serious programmer will end up inventing tools like this” is exaggerated but directionally right—there *was* a massive fragmentation of internal/custom tools and small SSGs"
"right that games are tiny compared to oil/pharma, but wrong that the need for political attention is “utterly laughable” – loot boxes, kids, and gaming disorder did get serious policy focus"
"realistic about hierarchy and politics in many orgs, but his “raise issue once and your work is done” stance aged poorly against rising expectations for engineering professionalism and safety culture"
"self-admittedly speculative and ultimately incorrect picture of wardens as likely to value Yelp feedback; points for honesty about not having data, but the model was wrong"
"correct that OOP/dynamic languages remain viable and that bugs often stem from domain misunderstanding, but substantially underestimates the applicability and eventual popularity of typed FP for domain modeling and large-scale systems"
"advocates publicly exposing developers to avoid their software; the community and industry went instead toward tooling, processes, and education, not public shaming"
"minimizes the problem by focusing on stdin/temporary files; in practice the big advances came from *semantic*, stateful compiler services, not just alternative I/O plumbing"
"anticipates the need for early anti-amyloid treatment and the scale of the boomer dementia wave; matches how lecanemab/donanemab and public health debates evolved"
"accurate that unreproducibility was “normal” in some research circles, but his normalization of that behavior ran squarely into a decade of reproducibility‑crisis backlash"
"romanticizes one‑room, multi‑age schools as a general model; while multi‑age and peer‑teaching exist in niches, mainstream high school stayed age‑segregated"
"identifies bad PMs and feature‑for‑feature’s‑sake as a major source of conceptual mess; accurate, though later comments correctly point out engineers and PMs co‑own the conceptual model"
"correct that WS are “just another technology,” but dismissing the detailed failure modes as cargo‑cult alarmism misses the real operational challenges that did show up"
"assertions that music is mostly backdrop, that people would hardly notice if it vanished, and that recorded copyright should go away are normatively extreme and out of step with how society actually behaved—hundreds of millions happily paying for streaming access"
"overstates NATO “carpet bombing” in Yugoslavia and leans on highly contested casualty sources; conflates civil‑war casualties with NATO air campaign effects"
"not a prediction, but an important corrective: shows how stress and mental health can derail “just work hard and you’ll be rich” narratives; very aligned with later awareness"
"solid historical anecdotes, but overstates “it all ended” in the early 1990s and leans on debatable takes about Apple and the prospects of an Intel AmigaOS port"
"good instinct that brutal/Mutant-style games still had a market; badly over-optimistic about Kick Off Revival matching the Amiga classic and about “they would sell well”"
"asserted APIs “cannot be copyrighted” even as the Federal Circuit held otherwise and the legal situation was very much in flux; too categorical for the moment"
"solid technical remarks on term‑rewriting and alternatives; correct that WL isn’t uniquely indispensable, though the practical impact of that observation is moderate"
"creative hydrodynamic power ideas that are technically interesting but mismatched to the actual harbor conditions and scale, and still rare for real‑world holiday displays"
"insists that age cannot be in the public interest and compares it, rhetorically, to voyeuristic content; this doesn’t match how European courts have actually treated biographical data about public figures"
"nuanced and largely accurate on oncology economics, regulatory risk, and why high scientific/clinical risk constrains investment despite large potential payoffs"
"correct marginal-effect logic in theory, but too sanguine about boards as price-setters and dismissive of mounting evidence of pay–performance misalignment"
"technically right about Bayes optimality under given assumptions, but underestimates the ethical and dynamic consequences of acting on biased priors in a social system"
"overstated “more skills is good under virtually all circumstances” without grappling with opportunity cost or motivation; too simplistic in hindsight"
"recurring pattern of uncharitable caricature — of feminist epistemology as simply denying objective reality, and of analogies to climate science as “doom religion”; both look significantly off with hindsight"
"leans on a white‑supremacist source, draws fear‑mongering parallels about crime and race that do not align with mainstream research or the subsequent decade of debate"
"right to caution people to look at granted claims rather than abstracts, but too charitable about this particular patent’s disclosure and about why it wasn’t challenged; in practice, cost and risk, not quality, explain the lack of challenges."
"largely right that the “schools are fundamentally broken” narrative is especially intense in the U.S.; perhaps underestimates issues in other Western systems, but the comparative insight aged reasonably well"
"core claim that CSS vars were overdesigned and essentially blocked from a JS-style polyfill-driven adoption path is contradicted by widespread adoption despite limited polyfillability"
"advocates “security through obscurity” as a response, which runs against well‑established cryptographic practice and hasn’t proven a good strategy in the real world"
"right that “open source” alone doesn’t magically save big projects, but his strong claim that no community would or could save Thunderbird was falsified by Thunderbird’s later revival with mixed volunteer/paid work"
"correctly identifies that the pro‑rata model is global and can feel unfair; but claims that the system “rewards not listening” and is easily exploited by muted streaming are overstated and don’t match how anti‑fraud and usage patterns evolved"
"the “too much maths, not enough understanding” criticism is broadly validated by subsequent teaching practices, though it remains more opinionated than factual"
"accurate in noting MSVC’s poor C99 support and some practical performance concerns, but quite off in dismissing Swift as mostly hype that solves no real problems"
"persistently downplays the value of embedding and makes dubious general claims about working directories and paging behavior that don’t align with how things evolved"
"right about batteries being the key and the attractiveness of shorter range with home charging; “2–3 years” to a tipping point was optimistic by roughly a half‑decade"
"similar to varjag: “remember, this is Baidu” as a reason to discount the tech; ethically understandable but factually poor as a prediction of whether Baidu would ship AVs"
"elaborate prediction about workaround “5 cm overseas” subsidiaries and foreign tax windfalls depends on the law passing and misunderstands CHF settlement realities; none of it came to pass"
"overly “great man” counterfactual that Jobs could have advanced mainstream web adoption by 5 years based on a single missed demo; not supported by later historical perspective"
"predicted/argued that React needed Facebook to replace React Router with an official router; instead, React flourished without that, and React Router itself remained central"
"right that 100% reserves would move credit allocation toward the central bank and away from competitive banks; overconfident on the “purely ideological” failings of opponents and too classical in his narrative of deposits funding loans, but broadly aligned with the critiques used against Vollgeld"
"suggested using Zone.Identifier to gate local DLL loading and having browsers segregate DLLs in a separate folder; OS didn’t implement this fully, but the zone‑aware idea matches how Windows uses ADS for security decisions elsewhere"
"dismisses djb’s proposal as safely ignorable; while boringcc per se didn’t ship, the problem and direction he points to are now central to mainstream security engineering"
"underlines the motivation problem accurately for some people, but overstates the idea that chess uniquely lacks a reason to pursue it given the massive renewed interest that followed."
"skepticism about overextending “growth mindset” to erase large innate differences is well supported by the subsequent replication literature, which finds modest, fragile effects"
"the “multi decade gravy train” framing for big-tech employment was undercut by the 2022–2023 layoff waves; big-tech is still good, but far from guaranteed or risk-free"
"right to surface an interesting old Gates quote, but the charge of hypocrisy looks unfair in hindsight given that people—and Gates clearly—do change their minds"
"correct that smartphones *could* be repairable and that automated disassembly/recycling should exist; Apple’s Daisy/Liam and modern right‑to‑repair debates bear this out"
"spirit of favoring open source is understandable, but strong claim that this “highlights why” to use OSS firewalls over proprietary ones is too simplistic in light of later OSS backdoor attempts"
"sensible use of GTD mainly for life admin/type‑2 procrastination; that’s where many people ended up—lightweight GTD for logistics, other approaches for creative work"
"substantially overestimated Elm’s eventual ecosystem size and its role in making Haskell mainstream, though correctly noting that “politics” would matter"
"rightly skeptical that grains are flawless “perfect foods” and notes evolutionary diet mismatch; but leans too heavily on rodent vs ape differences without strong data"
"accurately sensed it fit a minimalist niche, but overestimated its practical relevance as “another option in the basket” compared to FLTK/Qt/GTK, which remained dominant"
"personal reflection, not a prediction, but accurately describes a pattern of rating‑driven obsession that became much more common with the online chess boom"
"correct that success is not guaranteed and structural factors matter, but substantially mischaracterized Dweck’s claims and dismissed a research program later shown to have small but real effects"
"correct that TechCrunch was alarmist and conflating issues; slightly underestimates how serious Brazil’s long‑term online‑speech battles would become"
"overgeneralized that regulations are “utterly inefficient” at protecting customers; later years showed both the power of ratings *and* the necessity of regulation for safety, pollution, and labor"
"frames it purely as “free basics vs no Internet” and suggests no meaningful distortion; India’s subsequent experience with ultra‑cheap open Internet undercuts that dichotomy"
"prediction that broadening “art” would make it irrelevant is contradicted by the explosion of creative practices and cultural fights over art’s meaning and value"
"right that energy would move to new languages like Rust/Go and that Smalltalk would be mostly legacy/specialized, but wrong in grouping Perl 6 and Red with the winners"
"the skeptical “why learn Ruby with X/Y/Z around?” question captured a real sentiment, but subsequent decade shows Ruby retained significant value and ecosystem strength"
"confident bet that the Perl 6 ecosystem would “evolve very fast” and that you wouldn’t need to wait several years; it actually evolved slowly, stayed niche, and eventually rebranded as Raku"
"right that riders intentionally increase noise; overstates the inevitability of enforcement failure, as noise‑camera and higher‑fine regimes have since emerged"
"overconfident in “just write an abstraction layer” as a substitute for types at scale; the broader ecosystem moved decisively toward static typing or standardized schemas instead"
"correct that asymmetric crypto could replace passwords in principle, but badly underestimates the work required and pushes “one key to rule them all,” which runs counter to the privacy-preserving, per-origin direction the web actually took"
"appropriate instinct for skepticism, but overreached into dismissing the research as pseudo-intellectual trash and wrongly claimed absence of sources"
"wrongly blamed regulations for making OSS adoption in Western healthcare impossible; reality shows regulation is a hurdle but not a categorical barrier"
"correct that Bitcoin is traceable and attractive to law enforcement; but overconfident that major thieves like the MtGox hacker would inevitably be unmasked upon cash-out, which hasn’t happened publicly"
"the asymmetric cost story—big downside for mistakes, limited upside for successes—is a simplified but broadly plausible contributor to negativity bias"
"insisted the board wasn’t looking to sell the core business and that the spin would showcase its undervaluation; within a year Yahoo was auctioning the core and selling to Verizon at a modest price"
"good technical points on what’s needed—cell libraries, place & route, timing—and realistic about timing analysis difficulty; proposal for a documented placed-and-routed format hasn’t materialized at big vendors"
"strong defender of many small passes and nanopass-style IRs; that general stance has aged well, though “only sane approach” and “PEG is hot now” were overstated"
"correct that Moore’s law was ending; wildly wrong on “few more centuries” for metro connectivity; right about speed-of-light and offline-first issues"
"right that Dragon Book is aging and that PEG/Pratt/etc. are valuable, but claims that Dragon‑style techniques are “not practical anymore” and unused in modern compilers were overstated"
"claim that building Haskell-on-CL is trivial and CL-on-Haskell impossible is overstated in both directions; neither side produced an efficient, tightly integrated implementation in practice"
"correct about LLVM being great for DSLs, but the strong claim that interpreters are “much, much harder” than compilers aged poorly and conflicts with practice and pedagogy"
"asserts Kuhn “covered it in full; nothing more to be said” and calls feminist science an oxymoron; both have been conclusively falsified by the subsequent decade of work and practice"
"early, aggressive skepticism about Dwolla’s trustworthiness; though “cannot be trusted” is overstated, later CFPB action over misrepresented security vindicates concern about the company’s practices"
"basic tax principle about capital gains when selling is roughly right, but later practice around crypto tax has been more nuanced than that one‑liner"
"too sanguine that users wouldn’t be “satisfied” with Facebook‑only access; later evidence from multiple countries shows many users do effectively live inside Facebook"
"correct that US policy is sensitive to overstay risk, but overemphasizes Mexico and poverty while the main irregular flows shifted more to Central America and a broader set of countries"
"principled but unrealistic stance that Facebook should broadly ignore foreign court orders; practice across the 2015–2025 period went the opposite way"
"explicitly claimed there’s “not much of a network effect” and predicted free aggregators would commoditize everyone; the next decade went the opposite way"
"warning that laws passed by the left could later empower the far right is structurally sound; in France these powers have so far been used by the centre, but the risk remains real"
"right about “REST” being fuzzy in industry usage, but wrong to claim REST “has no spec” and is “whatever you think”; Fielding’s work remains a clear normative definition of the style."
"points out that high earners contribute large shares of tax, but treats that as decisive without grappling with avoidance and base‑erosion realities that did in fact drive reform"
"factually wrong about Garner’s death, wildly overstated claims about “hoaxes,” and dismissive of systemic concerns that later data have strongly supported"
"Perl hasn’t been adopted as “a better bash than bash”; while Perl is still present, its role as the go‑to general scripting glue has clearly declined vs Bash/Python"
"blanket contempt for “moron” jurors without engaging with alternatives or structural fixes; offers more sneer than substance, which doesn’t age well as an analysis"
"right that the USSR was heterogeneous and that the situation evolved over time, but seriously wrong in implying Soviet music was banned in the US and in downplaying Soviet censorship with whataboutism"
"correct that Elastic’s monetization would be strong, but calling NGINX’s open-core approach a “criminal precedent” aged badly given later licensing controversies elsewhere"
"argued that aerobic exercise speeds aging and advised against running/exercise in general; this is squarely contradicted by a decade of robust data on mortality, disease risk, and healthspan"
"dismissed the described DDoS mitigations as “trivial to defeat” via IP spoofing; in reality, those mitigations remained central for a decade and spoofing does not negate them in most practical attack scenarios"
"right to question the weird $0.00 webinar “purchase”; in hindsight, Stanford did both: kept plenty of paid SCPD offerings while also putting talks like this freely on YouTube"
"right that shouting changes context in *some* way, but the insistence that this undermines testability of performance effects misses standard experimental designs and isn’t tightly connected to the core regression/causality issues"
"misunderstood how deflation and non-elastic supply affect currency use; Bitcoin’s volatility/deflationary tendencies did not turn out to be a non-issue"
"asserts Swift will become a “popular universal platform like Python or JavaScript”; Swift remained strongly Apple-centric with only niche use elsewhere"
"Xtend did not beat Kotlin or become “Swift for Android”; strong claim in the wrong direction—rescued from an F only because Julia, also recommended elsewhere, did find a solid niche"
"repeatedly insists that “taxes are too high” and that lowering them removes the need for havens; the last decade moved in the opposite direction—coordination and minimums, not tax‑cutting to zero"
"colorful narrative about them “wanting” to get caught and counting on compassionate treatment; later events show they clearly wanted the loot and did receive substantial punishment"
"asserts “control SN = control BTC” and suggests governments raid to “control BTC”; completely misreads both BTC’s decentralization and what actually happened with Wright"
"raises valid concerns about preprocessor flags and cross-platform builds, but doesn’t fully appreciate why something more structured than “just download and build locally” brings value"
"equating JPMorgan’s settlement decisions with poor defendants taking plea deals is a poor analogy in light of JPM’s resources and strategic risk calculus"
"proposal to require working, open-source implementations/containers for CS papers anticipates the artifact-evaluation and code-mandate trends in top CS/ML venues"
"correct that Google would not bless Play Store or Play Services on a rival OS; less prescient in dismissing the whole “Android on Windows” idea, which later appeared in WSA on desktop"
"right about Linux’s eventual cloud dominance and Microsoft’s internal use of Linux, but dramatically wrong about Microsoft’s irrelevance, proprietary platforms, and engineer preferences"
"overstated “everyone was brainwashed into loving it,” but broadly correct that the initial euphoria around Disney–Star Wars faded and that the film’s safeness became more obvious over time"
"initial “worth $0” thesis is wrong in practice; later clarifications about value‑based work vs. commodity coding are more insightful but still overstated"
"leaned heavily on an outlier “SSRIs don’t really work” narrative; subsequent large meta‑analyses do not support the claim that “the majority of research” says they’re ineffective"
"persistent, confident, and historically incorrect claim that Buddhism was “basically invented by white folks,” in the face of strong counter‑evidence even at the time"
"speculation that Swift open-sourcing gives Apple a realistic option to exit computer hardware and license/open-source macOS has been thoroughly falsified"
"claim that Django “breaks compatibility with every minor version” and “pisses on your user base” is overstated; many teams have upgraded across multiple Django versions without catastrophic breakage, thanks to the very deprecation policies others praised"
"strong, confident claims about diversity and self‑selection that have aged poorly relative to evidence and industry practice; also repeatedly skirts HN guideline boundaries"
"asserted Python was “one of the most unfit languages for HPC ever” and that praising it for performance‑critical computing was “lying”; the subsequent rise of Python as the de facto interface for HPC and ML makes this about as wrong as it gets"
"substantially overstates *Time*’s contemporary importance and its role in how “hordes of people” live; historically true for mid‑century, not for the decade that followed"
"calling modern AI a “glorified calculator” with “nothing to do with intelligence” and saying serious AGI-like work had basically stopped has aged very badly given the subsequent decade"
"dramatically overestimated the historical importance of this work *within the Ruby community*; technically impressive, but not “one of the most important milestones ever” in practice"
"right to raise accessibility concerns, but the proposed “just use pseudocode instead of math” solution didn’t align with how the field evolved, and the illustrative pseudocode was incorrect"
"“Nobody would pay a license for these crap patents”; a decade of substantial, repeated licensing deals across the entire industry directly contradicts this"
"misdiagnosed Google’s China exit as mostly about internal management rather than security/censorship, and predicted/accepted a Google comeback that never materialized"
"overconfident dismissal of progressive enhancement as “ridiculous”; real‑world practice partially vindicated him, but the analogy and tone aged poorly"
"dismissed the incident as “bullshit almost hits” and implied it was empty fearmongering; in fact it prompted lasting policy changes and remains a key cautionary example"
"suggestion to prefer FastCGI backends over full HTTP/2 servers didn’t match how CL web apps are commonly deployed—reverse-proxied HTTP servers remained the norm"
"question suggests a belief that `gcc a.c` is trivially fine and fails to engage with the many real sources of nondeterminism that later turned out to matter a lot."
"characterizing depression as “nothing but” acquired habits contradicted by the subsequent decade of neurobiological, pharmacologic, and neuromodulation evidence"
"overstates the necessity and desirability of rule-breaking, Napster-style strategies for startup success; many huge successes didn’t follow that pattern, and legal/regulatory risk proved costlier than implied"
"repeated, confident claims about programmer supremacy, the demise of non‑tech billionaires, and governance of major firms that were already dubious and became clearly false"
"asserted that Android releases after 4.4 add no relevant security or functionality and dismissed runtime permissions; both thoroughly contradicted by subsequent Android evolution and security history"
"incorrectly dismissive of both the difficulty of the topic and the quality of the explanation; the field later validated the importance and nontriviality of exactly what the article discusses"
"confident, sweeping prediction that Facebook/WhatsApp would be quickly undermined by Telegram and user awareness of security; completely misreads the power of network effects and WhatsApp’s subsequent move to best‑in‑class encryption"
"fundamentally wrong definition of white-collar crime and its legal status; refuted both immediately in-thread and by subsequent events and prosecutions"