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Sebastian Thrun: Flying Cars, Autonomous Vehicles, and Education | Lex Fridman Podcast #59


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The following is a conversation with Sebastian Thrun.
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He's one of the greatest roboticists, computer scientists, and educators of our time.
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He led the development of the autonomous vehicles at Stanford
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that won the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge and placed second in the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge.
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He then led the Google self driving car program, which launched the self driving car revolution.
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He taught the popular Stanford course on artificial intelligence in 2011,
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which was one of the first massive open online courses, or MOOCs as they're commonly called.
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That experience led him to co found Udacity, an online education platform.
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If you haven't taken courses on it yet, I highly recommend it.
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Their self driving car program, for example, is excellent.
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He's also the CEO of Kitty Hawk, a company working on building flying cars,
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or more technically, EVTOLs, which stands for electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.
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He has launched several revolutions and inspired millions of people.
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But also, as many know, he's just a really nice guy.
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It was an honor and a pleasure to talk with him.
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to dream of engineering a better world.
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And now, here's my conversation with Sebastian Thrun.
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You mentioned that The Matrix may be your favorite movie.
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So let's start with a crazy philosophical question.
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Do you think we're living in a simulation?
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And in general, do you find the thought experiment interesting?
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Define simulation, I would say.
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Maybe we are, maybe we are not,
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but it's completely irrelevant to the way we should act.
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Putting aside, for a moment,
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the fact that it might not have any impact on how we should act as human beings,
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for people studying theoretical physics,
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these kinds of questions might be kind of interesting,
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looking at the universe as an information processing system.
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The universe is an information processing system.
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It's a huge physical, biological, chemical computer, there's no question.
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But I live here and now.
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I care about people, I care about us.
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What do you think is trying to compute?
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I don't think there's an intention.
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I think the world evolves the way it evolves.
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And it's beautiful, it's unpredictable.
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And I'm really, really grateful to be alive.
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Spoken like a true human.
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Which last time I checked, I was.
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Or that, in fact, this whole conversation is just a touring test
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to see if indeed you are.
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You've also said that one of the first programs,
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or the first few programs you've written was a, wait for it, TI57 calculator.
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Yeah.
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Maybe that's early 80s.
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We don't want to date calculators or anything.
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That's early 80s, correct.
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Yeah.
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So if you were to place yourself back into that time, into the mindset you were in,
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could you have predicted the evolution of computing, AI,
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the internet technology in the decades that followed?
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I was super fascinated by Silicon Valley, which I'd seen on television once
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and thought, my god, this is so cool.
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They build like DRAMs there and CPUs.
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How cool is that?
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And as a college student a few years later, I decided to really study
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intelligence and study human beings.
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And found that even back then in the 80s and 90s,
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artificial intelligence is what fascinated me the most.
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What's missing is that back in the day, the computers are really small.
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The brains we could build were not anywhere bigger than a cockroach.
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And cockroaches aren't very smart.
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So we weren't at the scale yet where we are today.
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Did you dream at that time to achieve the kind of scale we have today?
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Or did that seem possible?
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I always wanted to make robots smart.
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And I felt it was super cool to build an artificial human.
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And the best way to build an artificial human was to build a robot,
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because that's kind of the closest we could do.
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Unfortunately, we aren't there yet.
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The robots today are still very brittle.
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But it's fascinating to study intelligence from a constructive
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perspective when you build something.
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To understand you build, what do you think it takes to build an intelligent
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system, an intelligent robot?
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I think the biggest innovation that we've seen is machine learning.
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And it's the idea that the computers can basically teach themselves.
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Let's give an example.
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I'd say everybody pretty much knows how to walk.
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And we learn how to walk in the first year or two of our lives.
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But no scientist has ever been able to write down the rules of human gait.
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We don't understand it.
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We have it in our brains somehow.
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We can practice it.
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We understand it.
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But we can't articulate it.
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We can't pass it on by language.
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And that, to me, is kind of the deficiency of today's computer programming.
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When you program a computer, they're so insanely dumb that you have to give them
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rules for every contingencies.
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Very unlike the way people learn from data and experience,
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computers are being instructed.
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And because it's so hard to get this instruction set right,
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we pay software engineers $200,000 a year.
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Now, the most recent innovation, which has been in the make for 30,
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40 years, is an idea that computers can find their own rules.
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So they can learn from falling down and getting up the same way children can
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learn from falling down and getting up.
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And that revolution has led to a capability that's completely unmatched.
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Today's computers can watch experts do their jobs, whether you're
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a doctor or a lawyer, pick up the regularities, learn those rules,
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and then become as good as the best experts.
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So the dream of in the 80s of expert systems, for example, had at its core
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the idea that humans could boil down their expertise on a sheet of paper,
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so to sort of reduce, sort of be able to explain to machines
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how to do something explicitly.
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So do you think, what's the use of human expertise into this whole picture?
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Do you think most of the intelligence will come from machines learning
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from experience without human expertise input?
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So the question for me is much more how do you express expertise?
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You can express expertise by writing a book.
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You can express expertise by showing someone what you're doing.
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You can express expertise by applying it by many different ways.
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And I think the expert systems was our best attempt in AI
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to capture expertise and rules.
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But someone sat down and said, here are the rules of human gait.
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Here's when you put your big toe forward and your heel backwards
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and you always stop stumbling.
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And as we now know, the set of rules, the set of language that we can command
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is incredibly limited.
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The majority of the human brain doesn't deal with language.
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It deals with subconscious, numerical, perceptual things
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that we don't even self aware of.
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Now, when an AI system watches an expert do their job and practice their job,
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it can pick up things that people can't even put into writing,
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into books or rules.
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And that's where the real power is.
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We now have AI systems that, for example, look over the shoulders
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of highly paid human doctors like dermatologists or radiologists,
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and they can somehow pick up those skills that no one can express in words.
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So you were a key person in launching three revolutions,
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online education, autonomous vehicles, and flying cars or VTOLs.
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So high level, and I apologize for all the philosophical questions.
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There's no apology necessary.
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How do you choose what problems to try and solve?
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What drives you to make those solutions a reality?
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I have two desires in life.
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I want to literally make the lives of others better.
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Or as we often say, maybe jokingly, make the world a better place.
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I actually believe in this.
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It's as funny as it sounds.
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And second, I want to learn.
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I want to get new skills.
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I don't want to be in a job I'm good at, because if I'm in a job
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that I'm good at, the chances for me to learn something interesting
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is actually minimized.
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So I want to be in a job I'm bad at.
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That's really important to me.
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So in a bill, for example, what people often
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call flying cars, these are electrical, vertical, takeoff,
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and landing vehicles.
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I'm just no expert in any of this.
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And it's so much fun to learn on the job what it actually means
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to build something like this.
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Now, I'd say the stuff that I've done lately
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after I finished my professorship at Stanford,
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they really focused on what has the maximum impact on society.
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Transportation is something that has transformed the 21st
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or 20th century more than any other invention,
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in my opinion, even more than communication.
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And cities are different.
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Workers are different.
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Women's rights are different because of transportation.
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And yet, we still have a very suboptimal transportation
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solution where we kill 1.2 or so million people every year
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in traffic.
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It's like the leading cause of death for young people
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in many countries, where we are extremely inefficient
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resource wise.
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Just go to your average neighborhood city
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and look at the number of parked cars.
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That's a travesty, in my opinion.
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Or where we spend endless hours in traffic jams.
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And very, very simple innovations,
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like a self driving car or what people call a flying car,
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could completely change this.
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And it's there.
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I mean, the technology is basically there.
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You have to close your eyes not to see it.
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So lingering on autonomous vehicles, a fascinating space,
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some incredible work you've done throughout your career there.
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So let's start with DARPA, I think, the DARPA challenge,
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through the desert and then urban to the streets.
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I think that inspired an entire generation of roboticists
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and obviously sprung this whole excitement
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about this particular kind of four wheeled robots
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we called autonomous cars, self driving cars.
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So you led the development of Stanley, the autonomous car
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that won the race to the desert, the DARPA challenge in 2005.
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And Junior, the car that finished second
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in the DARPA urban challenge, also did incredibly well
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in 2007, I think.
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What are some painful, inspiring, or enlightening
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experiences from that time that stand out to you?
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Oh my god.
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Painful were all these incredibly complicated,
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stupid bugs that had to be found.
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We had a phase where Stanley, our car that eventually
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won the DARPA grand challenge, would every 30 miles
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just commit suicide.
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And we didn't know why.
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And it ended up to be that in the sinking of two computer
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clocks, occasionally a clock went backwards
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and that negative time elapsed, screwed up
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the entire internal logic.
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But it took ages to find this.
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There were bugs like that.
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I'd say enlightening is the Stanford team immediately
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focused on machine learning and on software,
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whereas everybody else seemed to focus on building better hardware.
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Our analysis had been a human being with an existing rental
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car can perfectly drive the course
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but why do I have to build a better rental car?
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I just should replace the human being.
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And the human being, to me, was a conjunction of three steps.
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We had sensors, eyes and ears, mostly eyes.
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We had brains in the middle.
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And then we had actuators, our hands and our feet.
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Now, the actuators are easy to build.
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The sensors are actually also easy to build.
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What was missing was the brain.
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So we had to build a human brain.
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And nothing clearer than to me that the human brain
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is a learning machine.
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So why not just train our robot?
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So we would build massive machine learning
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into our machine.
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And with that, we were able to not just learn
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from human drivers.
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We had the entire speed control of the vehicle
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was copied from human driving.
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But also have the robot learn from experience
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where it made a mistake and recover from it
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and learn from it.
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You mentioned the pain point of software and clocks.
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Synchronization seems to be a problem that
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continues with robotics.
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It's a tricky one with drones and so on.
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What does it take to build a thing, a system
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with so many constraints?
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You have a deadline, no time.
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You're unsure about anything really.
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It's the first time that people really even exploring.
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It's not even sure that anybody can finish
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when we're talking about the race to the desert
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the year before nobody finish.
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What does it take to scramble and finish
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a product that actually, a system that actually works?
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We were very lucky.
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We were a really small team.
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The core of the team were four people.
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It was four because five couldn't comfortably sit
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inside a car, but four could.
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And I, as a team leader, my job was
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to get pizza for everybody and wash the car and stuff
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like this and repair the radiator when it broke
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and debug the system.
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And we were very open minded.
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We had no egos involved.
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We just wanted to see how far we can get.
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What we did really, really well was time management.
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We were done with everything a month before the race.
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And we froze the entire software a month before the race.
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And it turned out, looking at other teams,
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every other team complained if they had just one more week,
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they would have won.
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And we decided we're not going to fall into that mistake.
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We're going to be early.
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And we had an entire month to shake the system.
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And we actually found two or three minor bugs
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in the last month that we had to fix.
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And we were completely prepared when the race occurred.
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Okay, so first of all, that's such an incredibly rare
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achievement in terms of being able to be done on time
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or ahead of time.
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What do you, how do you do that in your future work?
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What advice do you have in general?
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Because it seems to be so rare,
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especially in highly innovative projects like this.
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People work till the last second.
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Well, the nice thing about the DARPA Grand Challenge
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is that the problem was incredibly well defined.
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We were able for a while to drive
link |
00:15:57.160
the old DARPA Grand Challenge course,
link |
00:15:58.800
which had been used the year before.
link |
00:16:00.800
And then at some reason we were kicked out of the region.
link |
00:16:04.040
So we had to go to a different desert, the Snorran Desert,
link |
00:16:06.320
and we were able to drive desert trails
link |
00:16:08.880
just of the same type.
link |
00:16:10.600
So there was never any debate about like,
link |
00:16:12.320
what is actually the problem?
link |
00:16:13.240
We didn't sit down and say,
link |
00:16:14.400
hey, should we build a car or a plane?
link |
00:16:16.680
We had to build a car.
link |
00:16:18.280
That made it very, very easy.
link |
00:16:20.400
Then I studied my own life and life of others.
link |
00:16:23.800
And we realized that the typical mistake that people make
link |
00:16:26.360
is that there's this kind of crazy bug left
link |
00:16:29.600
that they haven't found yet.
link |
00:16:32.200
And it's just, they regret it.
link |
00:16:34.360
And that bug would have been trivial to fix.
link |
00:16:36.160
They just haven't fixed it yet.
link |
00:16:37.760
They didn't want to fall into that trap.
link |
00:16:39.600
So I built a testing team.
link |
00:16:41.080
We had a testing team that built a testing booklet
link |
00:16:43.760
of 160 pages of tests we had to go through
link |
00:16:46.800
just to make sure we shake out the system appropriately.
link |
00:16:49.720
And the testing team was with us all the time
link |
00:16:51.800
and dictated to us today, we do railroad crossings.
link |
00:16:55.520
Tomorrow we do, we practice the start of the event.
link |
00:16:58.480
And in all of these, we thought,
link |
00:17:00.680
oh my God, it's long solved trivial.
link |
00:17:02.240
And then we tested it out.
link |
00:17:03.200
Oh my God, it doesn't do a railroad crossing.
link |
00:17:04.560
Why not?
link |
00:17:05.400
Oh my God, it mistakes the rails for metal barriers.
link |
00:17:09.720
We have to fix this.
link |
00:17:11.600
So it was really a continuous focus
link |
00:17:14.480
on improving the weakest part of the system.
link |
00:17:16.360
And as long as you focus on improving
link |
00:17:19.160
the weakest part of the system,
link |
00:17:20.560
you eventually build a really great system.
link |
00:17:23.080
Let me just pause on that, to me as an engineer,
link |
00:17:25.880
it's just super exciting that you were thinking like that,
link |
00:17:28.280
especially at that stage as brilliant,
link |
00:17:30.440
that testing was such a core part of it.
link |
00:17:33.400
It may be to linger on the point of leadership.
link |
00:17:36.720
I think it's one of the first times
link |
00:17:39.120
you were really a leader
link |
00:17:41.960
and you've led many very successful teams since then.
link |
00:17:46.440
What does it take to be a good leader?
link |
00:17:48.480
I would say most of all, I just take credit.
link |
00:17:51.000
I put the work of others, right?
link |
00:17:55.320
That's very convenient turns out
link |
00:17:57.560
because I can't do all these things myself.
link |
00:18:00.200
I'm an engineer at heart.
link |
00:18:01.120
So I care about engineering.
link |
00:18:03.760
So I don't know what the chicken and the egg is,
link |
00:18:06.160
but as a kid, I loved computers
link |
00:18:07.880
because you could tell them to do something
link |
00:18:09.560
and they actually did it.
link |
00:18:10.720
It was very cool.
link |
00:18:11.560
And you could like in the middle of the night,
link |
00:18:12.760
wake up at one in the morning and switch on your computer.
link |
00:18:15.200
And what he told you to yesterday, it would still do.
link |
00:18:18.160
That was really cool.
link |
00:18:19.400
Unfortunately, that didn't quite work with people.
link |
00:18:21.320
So you go to people and tell them what to do
link |
00:18:22.880
and they don't do it.
link |
00:18:24.360
And they hate you for it, or you do it today
link |
00:18:26.960
and then you go a day later and they stop doing it.
link |
00:18:29.040
So you have to...
link |
00:18:30.240
So then the question really became,
link |
00:18:31.480
how can you put yourself in the brain of people
link |
00:18:34.120
as opposed to computers?
link |
00:18:35.120
And in terms of computers, it's super dumb.
link |
00:18:37.400
That's so dumb.
link |
00:18:38.240
If people were as dumb as computers,
link |
00:18:39.640
I wouldn't want to work with them.
link |
00:18:41.280
But people are smart and people are emotional
link |
00:18:43.640
and people have pride and people have aspirations.
link |
00:18:45.920
So how can I connect to that?
link |
00:18:49.840
And that's the thing that most of our leadership just fails
link |
00:18:52.560
because many, many engineers turn manager
link |
00:18:56.240
believe they can treat their team just the same way
link |
00:18:58.480
it can treat your computer.
link |
00:18:59.320
And it just doesn't work this way.
link |
00:19:00.440
It's just really bad.
link |
00:19:02.320
So how can I connect to people?
link |
00:19:05.080
And it turns out as a college professor,
link |
00:19:07.680
the wonderful thing you do all the time
link |
00:19:10.000
is to empower other people.
link |
00:19:11.000
Like your job is to make your students look great.
link |
00:19:14.720
That's all you do.
link |
00:19:15.560
You're the best coach.
link |
00:19:16.920
And it turns out if you do a fantastic job with making
link |
00:19:19.160
your students look great, they actually love you
link |
00:19:21.560
and their parents love you.
link |
00:19:22.720
And they give you all the credit for stuff you don't deserve.
link |
00:19:25.520
All my students were smarter than me.
link |
00:19:27.200
All the great stuff invented at Stanford
link |
00:19:28.720
was their stuff, not my stuff.
link |
00:19:30.040
And they give me credit and say, oh, Sebastian.
link |
00:19:32.480
We're just making them feel good about themselves.
link |
00:19:35.240
So the question really is, can you take a team of people
link |
00:19:38.040
and what does it take to make them
link |
00:19:40.400
to connect to what they actually want in life
link |
00:19:43.360
and turn this into productive action?
link |
00:19:45.760
It turns out every human being that I know
link |
00:19:48.520
has incredibly good intentions.
link |
00:19:50.120
I've really rarely met a person with bad intentions.
link |
00:19:54.120
I believe every person wants to contribute.
link |
00:19:55.920
I think every person I've met wants to help others.
link |
00:19:59.440
It's amazing how much of an urge we have
link |
00:20:01.840
not to just help ourselves, but to help others.
link |
00:20:04.440
So how can we empower people and give them
link |
00:20:06.480
the right framework that they can accomplish this?
link |
00:20:10.600
In moments when it works, it's magical.
link |
00:20:12.400
Because you'd see the confluence of people
link |
00:20:17.160
being able to make the world a better place
link |
00:20:19.160
and deriving enormous confidence and pride out of this.
link |
00:20:22.840
And that's when my environment works the best.
link |
00:20:27.160
These are moments where I can disappear for a month
link |
00:20:29.400
and come back and things still work.
link |
00:20:31.560
It's very hard to accomplish.
link |
00:20:32.760
But when it works, it's amazing.
link |
00:20:35.040
So I agree with you very much.
link |
00:20:37.240
It's not often heard that most people in the world
link |
00:20:42.000
have good intentions.
link |
00:20:43.520
At the core, their intentions are good
link |
00:20:45.920
and they're good people.
link |
00:20:47.400
That's a beautiful message, it's not often heard.
link |
00:20:50.160
We make this mistake, and this is a friend of mine,
link |
00:20:52.600
Alex Werder, talking to us, that we judge ourselves
link |
00:20:56.400
by our intentions and others by their actions.
link |
00:21:00.080
And I think that the biggest skill,
link |
00:21:01.880
I mean, here in Silicon Valley, we follow engineers
link |
00:21:03.560
who have very little empathy and are kind of befuddled
link |
00:21:06.640
by why it doesn't work for them.
link |
00:21:09.200
The biggest skill, I think, that people should acquire
link |
00:21:13.080
is to put themselves into the position of the other
link |
00:21:16.880
and listen, and listen to what the other has to say.
link |
00:21:20.000
And they'd be shocked how similar they are to themselves.
link |
00:21:23.400
And they might even be shocked how their own actions
link |
00:21:26.160
don't reflect their intentions.
link |
00:21:28.320
I often have conversations with engineers
link |
00:21:30.920
where I say, look, hey, I love you, you're doing a great job.
link |
00:21:33.400
And by the way, what you just did has the following effect.
link |
00:21:37.320
Are you aware of that?
link |
00:21:38.840
And then people would say, oh my God, not I wasn't,
link |
00:21:41.280
because my intention was that.
link |
00:21:43.120
And I say, yeah, I trust your intention.
link |
00:21:45.000
You're a good human being.
link |
00:21:46.360
But just to help you in the future,
link |
00:21:48.480
if you keep expressing it that way,
link |
00:21:51.320
then people will just hate you.
link |
00:21:53.400
And I've had many instances where people say,
link |
00:21:55.240
oh my God, thank you for telling me this,
link |
00:21:56.600
because it wasn't my intention to look like an idiot.
link |
00:21:59.280
It wasn't my intention to help other people.
link |
00:22:00.720
I just didn't know how to do it.
link |
00:22:02.480
Very simple, by the way.
link |
00:22:04.000
There's a book, Dale Carnegie, 1936,
link |
00:22:07.440
how to make friends and how to influence others.
link |
00:22:10.400
Has the entire Bible, you just read it and you're done
link |
00:22:12.720
and you apply it every day.
link |
00:22:13.960
And I wish I was good enough to apply it every day.
link |
00:22:16.760
But it's just simple things, right?
link |
00:22:18.880
Like be positive, remember people's name, smile,
link |
00:22:22.600
and eventually have empathy.
link |
00:22:24.480
Really think that the person that you hate
link |
00:22:27.400
and you think is an idiot,
link |
00:22:28.640
is actually just like yourself.
link |
00:22:30.440
It's a person who's struggling, who means well,
link |
00:22:33.200
and who might need help, and guess what, you need help.
link |
00:22:36.560
I've recently spoken with Stephen Schwarzman.
link |
00:22:39.960
I'm not sure if you know who that is, but.
link |
00:22:41.960
I do.
link |
00:22:42.920
So, and he said.
link |
00:22:44.320
It's on my list.
link |
00:22:45.160
On the list.
link |
00:22:47.440
But he said, sort of to expand on what you're saying,
link |
00:22:52.760
that one of the biggest things you can do
link |
00:22:56.040
is hear people when they tell you what their problem is
link |
00:23:00.040
and then help them with that problem.
link |
00:23:02.360
He says, it's surprising how few people
link |
00:23:06.000
actually listen to what troubles others.
link |
00:23:09.280
And because it's right there in front of you
link |
00:23:12.600
and you can benefit the world the most.
link |
00:23:15.240
And in fact, yourself and everybody around you
link |
00:23:18.040
by just hearing the problems and solving them.
link |
00:23:20.840
I mean, that's my little history of engineering.
link |
00:23:23.960
That is, while I was engineering with computers,
link |
00:23:28.240
I didn't care at all what the computer's problems were.
link |
00:23:32.400
I just told them what to do and to do it.
link |
00:23:34.800
And it just doesn't work this way with people.
link |
00:23:37.600
It doesn't work with me.
link |
00:23:38.480
If you come to me and say, do A, I do the opposite.
link |
00:23:43.600
But let's return to the comfortable world of engineering.
link |
00:23:47.160
And can you tell me in broad strokes in how you see it?
link |
00:23:52.160
Because you're the core of starting it,
link |
00:23:53.840
the core of driving it,
link |
00:23:55.120
the technical evolution of autonomous vehicles
link |
00:23:58.040
from the first DARPA Grand Challenge
link |
00:24:00.440
to the incredible success we see with the program
link |
00:24:03.640
you started with Google self driving car
link |
00:24:05.400
and Waymo and the entire industry that sprung up
link |
00:24:08.360
of different kinds of approaches, debates and so on.
link |
00:24:11.200
Well, the idea of self driving car goes back to the 80s.
link |
00:24:14.160
There was a team in Germany and another team
link |
00:24:15.480
at Carnegie Mellon that did some very pioneering work.
link |
00:24:18.720
But back in the day, I'd say the computers were so deficient
link |
00:24:21.760
that even the best professors and engineers in the world
link |
00:24:25.880
basically stood no chance.
link |
00:24:28.200
It then folded into a phase where the US government
link |
00:24:31.200
spent at least half a billion dollars
link |
00:24:33.320
that I could count on research projects.
link |
00:24:36.160
But the way the procurement works,
link |
00:24:38.920
a successful stack of paper describing lots of stuff
link |
00:24:42.800
that no one's ever gonna read
link |
00:24:43.880
was a successful product of a research project.
link |
00:24:47.640
So we trained our researchers to produce lots of paper.
link |
00:24:52.600
That all changed with the DARPA Grand Challenge.
link |
00:24:54.320
And I really gotta credit the ingenious people at DARPA
link |
00:24:58.480
and the US government and Congress
link |
00:25:00.400
that took a complete new funding model where they said,
link |
00:25:03.000
let's not fund effort, let's fund outcomes.
link |
00:25:05.640
And it sounds very trivial,
link |
00:25:06.840
but there was no tax code that allowed
link |
00:25:09.840
the use of congressional tax money for a price.
link |
00:25:13.720
It was all effort based.
link |
00:25:15.120
So if you put in a hundred hours in,
link |
00:25:16.320
you could charge a hundred hours.
link |
00:25:17.480
If you put in a thousand hours in,
link |
00:25:18.520
you could build a thousand hours.
link |
00:25:20.720
By changing the focus instead of making the price,
link |
00:25:22.880
we don't pay you for development,
link |
00:25:24.040
we pay for the accomplishment.
link |
00:25:26.360
They drew in, they automatically drew out
link |
00:25:28.960
all these contractors who are used to the drug
link |
00:25:31.720
of getting money per hour.
link |
00:25:33.400
And they drew in a whole bunch of new people.
link |
00:25:35.520
And these people are mostly crazy people.
link |
00:25:37.600
They were people who had a car and a computer
link |
00:25:40.680
and they wanted to make a million bucks.
link |
00:25:42.440
The million bucks was their visual price money,
link |
00:25:43.920
it was then doubled.
link |
00:25:45.440
And they felt if I put my computer in my car
link |
00:25:48.040
and program it, I can be rich.
link |
00:25:50.880
And that was so awesome.
link |
00:25:52.080
Like half the teams, there was a team that was surfer dudes
link |
00:25:55.480
and they had like two surfboards on their vehicle
link |
00:25:58.520
and brought like these fashion girls, super cute girls,
link |
00:26:01.560
like twin sisters.
link |
00:26:03.720
And you could tell these guys were not your common
link |
00:26:06.400
beltway bandit who gets all these big multimillion
link |
00:26:10.840
and billion dollar countries from the US government.
link |
00:26:13.520
And there was a great reset.
link |
00:26:16.280
Universities moved in.
link |
00:26:18.560
I was very fortunate at Stanford that I just received tenure
link |
00:26:21.800
so I couldn't get fired no matter what I do,
link |
00:26:23.360
otherwise I wouldn't have done it.
link |
00:26:25.120
And I had enough money to finance this thing
link |
00:26:28.240
and I was able to attract a lot of money from third parties.
link |
00:26:31.160
And even car companies moved in.
link |
00:26:32.520
They kind of moved in very quietly
link |
00:26:34.040
because they were super scared to be embarrassed
link |
00:26:36.600
that their car would flip over.
link |
00:26:38.560
But Ford was there and Volkswagen was there
link |
00:26:40.680
and a few others and GM was there.
link |
00:26:43.360
So it kind of reset the entire landscape of people.
link |
00:26:46.360
And if you look at who's a big name
link |
00:26:48.200
in self driving cars today,
link |
00:26:49.480
these were mostly people who participated
link |
00:26:51.320
in those challenges.
link |
00:26:53.400
Okay, that's incredible.
link |
00:26:54.280
Can you just comment quickly on your sense of lessons learned
link |
00:26:59.080
from that kind of funding model
link |
00:27:01.240
and the research that's going on in academia
link |
00:27:04.400
in terms of producing papers,
link |
00:27:06.120
is there something to be learned and scaled up bigger,
link |
00:27:10.200
having these kinds of grand challenges
link |
00:27:11.720
that could improve outcomes?
link |
00:27:14.560
So I'm a big believer in focusing
link |
00:27:16.320
on kind of an end to end system.
link |
00:27:19.680
I'm a really big believer in systems building.
link |
00:27:21.920
I've always built systems in my academic career,
link |
00:27:23.680
even though I do a lot of math and abstract stuff,
link |
00:27:27.040
but it's all derived from the idea
link |
00:27:28.160
of let's solve a real problem.
link |
00:27:29.680
And it's very hard for me to be an academic
link |
00:27:33.840
and say, let me solve a component of a problem.
link |
00:27:35.800
Like with someone there's fields like nonmonetary logic
link |
00:27:38.680
or AI planning systems where people believe
link |
00:27:41.800
that a certain style of problem solving
link |
00:27:44.320
is the ultimate end objective.
link |
00:27:47.280
And I would always turn it around and say,
link |
00:27:49.600
hey, what problem would my grandmother care about
link |
00:27:52.640
that doesn't understand computer technology
link |
00:27:54.680
and doesn't wanna understand?
link |
00:27:56.520
And how could I make her love what I do?
link |
00:27:58.480
Because only then do I have an impact on the world.
link |
00:28:01.320
I can easily impress my colleagues.
link |
00:28:02.960
That is much easier,
link |
00:28:04.760
but impressing my grandmother is very, very hard.
link |
00:28:07.640
So I would always thought if I can build a self driving car
link |
00:28:10.760
and my grandmother can use it
link |
00:28:12.880
even after she loses her driving privileges
link |
00:28:14.720
or children can use it,
link |
00:28:16.160
or we save maybe a million lives a year,
link |
00:28:20.560
that would be very impressive.
link |
00:28:22.440
And then there's so many problems like these,
link |
00:28:23.920
like there's a problem with curing cancer,
link |
00:28:25.320
or whatever it is, live twice as long.
link |
00:28:27.800
Once a problem is defined,
link |
00:28:29.600
of course I can't solve it in its entirety.
link |
00:28:31.440
Like it takes sometimes tens of thousands of people
link |
00:28:34.200
to find a solution.
link |
00:28:35.360
There's no way you can fund an army of 10,000 at Stanford.
link |
00:28:39.360
So you gotta build a prototype.
link |
00:28:41.080
Let's build a meaningful prototype.
link |
00:28:42.480
And the DARPA Grand Challenge was beautiful
link |
00:28:43.920
because it told me what this prototype had to do.
link |
00:28:46.400
I didn't have to think about what it had to do,
link |
00:28:47.680
I just had to read the rules.
link |
00:28:48.840
And that was really beautiful.
link |
00:28:51.080
And it's most beautiful,
link |
00:28:52.320
you think what academia could aspire to
link |
00:28:54.720
is to build a prototype that's the systems level,
link |
00:28:58.600
that solves or gives you an inkling
link |
00:29:01.360
that this problem could be solved with this prototype.
link |
00:29:03.480
First of all, I wanna emphasize what academia really is.
link |
00:29:06.520
And I think people misunderstand it.
link |
00:29:08.560
First and foremost, academia is a way
link |
00:29:11.280
to educate young people.
link |
00:29:13.320
First and foremost, a professor is an educator.
link |
00:29:15.400
No matter where you are at,
link |
00:29:17.040
a small suburban college,
link |
00:29:18.560
or whether you are a Harvard or Stanford professor,
link |
00:29:21.960
that's not the way most people think of themselves
link |
00:29:25.000
in academia because we have this kind of competition
link |
00:29:28.000
going on for citations and publication.
link |
00:29:31.440
That's a measurable thing,
link |
00:29:32.840
but that is secondary to the primary purpose
link |
00:29:35.440
of educating people to think.
link |
00:29:37.800
Now, in terms of research,
link |
00:29:39.960
most of the great science,
link |
00:29:42.880
the great research comes out of universities.
link |
00:29:45.520
You can trace almost everything back,
link |
00:29:46.960
including Google, to universities.
link |
00:29:48.840
So there's nothing really fundamentally broken here.
link |
00:29:52.120
It's a good system.
link |
00:29:53.400
And I think America has the finest university system
link |
00:29:55.920
on the planet.
link |
00:29:57.640
We can talk about reach
link |
00:29:59.320
and how to reach people outside the system.
link |
00:30:01.440
It's a different topic,
link |
00:30:02.280
but the system itself is a good system.
link |
00:30:04.760
If I had one wish, I would say it'd be really great
link |
00:30:08.320
if there was more debate about
link |
00:30:11.760
what the great big problems are in society
link |
00:30:15.880
and focus on those.
link |
00:30:18.760
And most of them are interdisciplinary.
link |
00:30:21.600
Unfortunately, it's very easy to fall
link |
00:30:24.640
into an interdisciplinary viewpoint
link |
00:30:28.160
where your problem is dictated
link |
00:30:30.440
by what your closest colleagues believe the problem is.
link |
00:30:33.680
It's very hard to break out and say,
link |
00:30:35.280
well, there's an entire new field of problems.
link |
00:30:37.920
So to give an example,
link |
00:30:39.840
prior to me working on self driving cars,
link |
00:30:41.640
I was a roboticist and a machine learning expert.
link |
00:30:44.640
And I wrote books on robotics,
link |
00:30:46.840
something called probabilistic robotics.
link |
00:30:48.480
It's a very methods driven kind of viewpoint of the world.
link |
00:30:51.480
I built robots that acted in museums as tour guides,
link |
00:30:54.000
that let children around.
link |
00:30:55.600
It is something that at the time was moderately challenging.
link |
00:31:00.000
When I started working on cars,
link |
00:31:02.240
several colleagues told me,
link |
00:31:03.720
Sebastian, you're destroying your career
link |
00:31:06.080
because in our field of robotics,
link |
00:31:08.160
cars are looked like as a gimmick
link |
00:31:10.400
and they're not expressive enough.
link |
00:31:11.760
They can only push the throttle and the brakes.
link |
00:31:15.080
There's no dexterity.
link |
00:31:16.440
There's no complexity.
link |
00:31:18.240
It's just too simple.
link |
00:31:19.480
And no one came to me and said,
link |
00:31:21.200
wow, if you solve that problem,
link |
00:31:22.720
you can save a million lives, right?
link |
00:31:25.000
Among all robotic problems that I've seen in my life,
link |
00:31:27.240
I would say the self driving car, transportation,
link |
00:31:29.760
is the one that has the most hope for society.
link |
00:31:32.080
So how come the robotics community wasn't all over the place?
link |
00:31:35.120
And it was because we focused on methods and solutions
link |
00:31:37.920
and not on problems.
link |
00:31:39.880
Like if you go around today and ask your grandmother,
link |
00:31:42.400
what bugs you?
link |
00:31:43.240
What really makes you upset?
link |
00:31:45.240
I challenge any academic to do this
link |
00:31:48.720
and then realize how far your research
link |
00:31:51.800
is probably away from that today.
link |
00:31:54.840
At the very least, that's a good thing
link |
00:31:56.760
for academics to deliberate on.
link |
00:31:59.240
The other thing that's really nice in Silicon Valley is,
link |
00:32:01.600
Silicon Valley is full of smart people outside academia.
link |
00:32:04.360
So there's the Larry Pages and Mark Zuckerbergs in the world
link |
00:32:06.720
who are anywhere smarter, smarter
link |
00:32:09.000
than the best academics I've met in my life.
link |
00:32:11.400
And what they do is they are at a different level.
link |
00:32:15.360
They build the systems,
link |
00:32:16.680
they build the customer facing systems,
link |
00:32:19.280
they build things that people can use
link |
00:32:21.920
without technical education.
link |
00:32:23.760
And they are inspired by research.
link |
00:32:25.800
They're inspired by scientists.
link |
00:32:27.480
They hire the best PhDs from the best universities
link |
00:32:30.280
for a reason.
link |
00:32:31.960
So I think this kind of vertical integration
link |
00:32:35.080
between the real product, the real impact
link |
00:32:37.720
and the real thought, the real ideas,
link |
00:32:39.800
that's actually working surprisingly well in Silicon Valley.
link |
00:32:42.720
It did not work as well in other places in this nation.
link |
00:32:44.840
So when I worked at Carnegie Mellon,
link |
00:32:46.640
we had the world's finest computer science university,
link |
00:32:49.800
but there wasn't those people in Pittsburgh
link |
00:32:52.720
that would be able to take these
link |
00:32:54.280
very fine computer science ideas
link |
00:32:56.000
and turn them into massive, impactful products.
link |
00:33:00.560
That symbiosis seemed to exist
link |
00:33:02.800
pretty much only in Silicon Valley
link |
00:33:04.600
and maybe a bit in Boston and Austin.
link |
00:33:06.560
Yeah, with Stanford, that's really interesting.
link |
00:33:11.040
So if we look a little bit further on
link |
00:33:14.000
from the DARPA Grand Challenge
link |
00:33:17.120
and the launch of the Google self driving car,
link |
00:33:20.000
what do you see as the state,
link |
00:33:22.000
the challenges of autonomous vehicles as they are now
link |
00:33:25.840
is actually achieving that huge scale
link |
00:33:29.120
and having a huge impact on society?
link |
00:33:31.640
I'm extremely proud of what has been accomplished.
link |
00:33:35.200
And again, I'm taking a lot of credit for the work of others.
link |
00:33:38.280
And I'm actually very optimistic.
link |
00:33:40.160
And people have been kind of worrying,
link |
00:33:42.320
is it too fast? Is it too slow?
link |
00:33:43.800
Why is it not there yet? And so on.
link |
00:33:45.840
It is actually quite an interesting, hard problem.
link |
00:33:48.800
And in that a self driving car,
link |
00:33:51.640
to build one that manages 90% of the problems
link |
00:33:55.280
encountered in everyday driving is easy.
link |
00:33:57.200
We can literally do this over a weekend.
link |
00:33:59.440
To do 99% might take a month.
link |
00:34:02.040
Then there's 1% left.
link |
00:34:03.200
So 1% would mean that you still have a fatal accident
link |
00:34:06.920
every week, very unacceptable.
link |
00:34:08.960
So now you work on this 1%
link |
00:34:10.920
and the 99% of that, the remaining 1%
link |
00:34:13.640
is actually still relatively easy,
link |
00:34:15.760
but now you're down to like a hundredth of 1%.
link |
00:34:18.160
And it's still completely unacceptable in terms of safety.
link |
00:34:21.560
So the variety of things you encounter are just enormous.
link |
00:34:24.200
And that gives me enormous respect for human being
link |
00:34:26.440
that we're able to deal with the couch on the highway,
link |
00:34:30.440
or the deer in the headlights, or the blown tire
link |
00:34:33.440
that we've never been trained for.
link |
00:34:34.880
And all of a sudden have to handle it
link |
00:34:35.960
in an emergency situation
link |
00:34:37.080
and often do very, very successfully.
link |
00:34:38.720
It's amazing from that perspective,
link |
00:34:40.640
how safe driving actually is given how many millions
link |
00:34:43.640
of miles we drive every year in this country.
link |
00:34:47.600
We are now at a point where I believe the technology
link |
00:34:49.400
is there and I've seen it.
link |
00:34:51.560
I've seen it in Waymo, I've seen it in Aptiv,
link |
00:34:53.520
I've seen it in Cruise and in a number of companies
link |
00:34:56.760
and in Voyage where vehicles now driving around
link |
00:35:00.920
and basically flawlessly are able to drive people around
link |
00:35:04.360
in limited scenarios.
link |
00:35:06.040
In fact, you can go to Vegas today
link |
00:35:07.960
and order a Summon and Lift.
link |
00:35:09.880
And if you get the right setting of your app,
link |
00:35:13.480
you'll be picked up by a driverless car.
link |
00:35:15.760
Now there's still safety drivers in there,
link |
00:35:18.040
but that's a fantastic way to kind of learn
link |
00:35:21.280
what the limits are of technology today.
link |
00:35:22.920
And there's still some glitches,
link |
00:35:24.680
but the glitches have become very, very rare.
link |
00:35:26.520
I think the next step is gonna be to down cost it,
link |
00:35:29.680
to harden it, the entrapment, the sensors
link |
00:35:33.720
are not quite an automotive grade standard yet.
link |
00:35:36.120
And then to really build the business models,
link |
00:35:37.760
to really kind of go somewhere and make the business case.
link |
00:35:40.920
And the business case is hard work.
link |
00:35:42.520
It's not just, oh my God, we have this capability,
link |
00:35:44.560
people are just gonna buy it.
link |
00:35:45.480
You have to make it affordable.
link |
00:35:46.680
You have to find the social acceptance of people.
link |
00:35:52.240
None of the teams yet has been able to or gutsy enough
link |
00:35:55.360
to drive around without a person inside the car.
link |
00:35:59.240
And that's the next magical hurdle.
link |
00:36:01.320
We'll be able to send these vehicles around
link |
00:36:03.800
completely empty in traffic.
link |
00:36:05.760
And I think, I mean, I wait every day,
link |
00:36:08.120
wait for the news that Waymo has just done this.
link |
00:36:11.840
So, interesting you mentioned gutsy.
link |
00:36:15.080
Let me ask some maybe unanswerable question,
link |
00:36:20.200
maybe edgy questions.
link |
00:36:21.480
But in terms of how much risk is required,
link |
00:36:26.880
some guts in terms of leadership style,
link |
00:36:30.360
it would be good to contrast approaches.
link |
00:36:32.600
And I don't think anyone knows what's right.
link |
00:36:34.680
But if we compare Tesla and Waymo, for example,
link |
00:36:38.560
Elon Musk and the Waymo team,
link |
00:36:43.200
there's slight differences in approach.
link |
00:36:45.680
So on the Elon side, there's more,
link |
00:36:49.560
I don't know what the right word to use,
link |
00:36:50.840
but aggression in terms of innovation.
link |
00:36:53.920
And on Waymo side, there's more sort of cautious,
link |
00:36:59.800
safety focused approach to the problem.
link |
00:37:03.480
What do you think it takes?
link |
00:37:06.200
What leadership at which moment is right?
link |
00:37:09.160
Which approach is right?
link |
00:37:11.600
Look, I don't sit in either of those teams.
link |
00:37:13.880
So I'm unable to even verify like somebody says correct.
link |
00:37:18.000
In the end of the day, every innovator in that space
link |
00:37:21.240
will face a fundamental dilemma.
link |
00:37:23.160
And I would say you could put aerospace titans
link |
00:37:27.120
into the same bucket,
link |
00:37:28.880
which is you have to balance public safety
link |
00:37:31.600
with your drive to innovate.
link |
00:37:34.280
And this country in particular in the States
link |
00:37:36.760
has a hundred plus year history
link |
00:37:38.320
of doing this very successfully.
link |
00:37:40.600
Air travel is what a hundred times a safe per mile
link |
00:37:43.880
than ground travel, than cars.
link |
00:37:46.600
And there's a reason for it because people have found ways
link |
00:37:50.320
to be very methodological about ensuring public safety
link |
00:37:55.080
while still being able to make progress
link |
00:37:56.880
on important aspects, for example,
link |
00:37:59.000
like air and noise and fuel consumption.
link |
00:38:03.600
So I think that those practices are proven
link |
00:38:06.120
and they actually work.
link |
00:38:07.840
We live in a world safer than ever before.
link |
00:38:09.840
And yes, there will always be the provision
link |
00:38:11.880
that something goes wrong.
link |
00:38:12.720
There's always the possibility
link |
00:38:14.040
that someone makes a mistake
link |
00:38:15.240
or there's an unexpected failure.
link |
00:38:17.120
We can never guarantee to a hundred percent
link |
00:38:19.720
absolute safety other than just not doing it.
link |
00:38:23.320
But I think I'm very proud of the history of the United States.
link |
00:38:27.080
I mean, we've dealt with much more dangerous technology
link |
00:38:30.120
like nuclear energy and kept that safe too.
link |
00:38:33.760
We have nuclear weapons and we keep those safe.
link |
00:38:36.400
So we have methods and procedures
link |
00:38:39.440
that really balance these two things very, very successfully.
link |
00:38:42.920
You've mentioned a lot of great autonomous vehicle companies
link |
00:38:46.320
that are taking sort of the level four, level five,
link |
00:38:48.760
they jump in full autonomy with a safety driver
link |
00:38:51.840
and take that kind of approach
link |
00:38:53.120
and also through simulation and so on.
link |
00:38:55.760
There's also the approach that Tesla Autopilot is doing,
link |
00:38:59.560
which is kind of incrementally taking a level two vehicle
link |
00:39:03.680
and using machine learning
link |
00:39:04.920
and learning from the driving of human beings
link |
00:39:08.360
and trying to creep up,
link |
00:39:10.560
trying to incrementally improve the system
link |
00:39:12.360
until it's able to achieve level four autonomy.
link |
00:39:15.520
So perfect autonomy in certain kind of geographical regions.
link |
00:39:19.760
What are your thoughts on these contrasting approaches?
link |
00:39:23.120
Well, so first of all, I'm a very proud Tesla owner
link |
00:39:25.560
and I literally use the Autopilot every day
link |
00:39:27.840
and it literally has kept me safe.
link |
00:39:30.760
It is a beautiful technology specifically
link |
00:39:33.920
for highway driving when I'm slightly tired
link |
00:39:37.600
because then it turns me into a much safer driver.
link |
00:39:42.200
And I'm 100% confident that's the case.
link |
00:39:46.520
In terms of the right approach,
link |
00:39:47.680
I think the biggest change I've seen
link |
00:39:49.880
since I went to Waymo team is this thing called deep learning.
link |
00:39:54.280
I think deep learning was not a hot topic
link |
00:39:56.320
when I started Waymo or Google self driving cars.
link |
00:39:59.400
It was there, in fact, we started Google Brain
link |
00:40:01.760
at the same time in Google X.
link |
00:40:02.840
So I invested in deep learning,
link |
00:40:04.760
but people didn't talk about it, it wasn't a hot topic.
link |
00:40:07.840
And now it is, there's a shift of emphasis
link |
00:40:10.360
from a more geometric perspective
link |
00:40:12.440
where you use geometric sensors
link |
00:40:14.320
that give you a full 3D view
link |
00:40:15.680
when you do a geometric reasoning about,
link |
00:40:17.280
oh, this box over here might be a car
link |
00:40:19.640
towards a more human like, oh, let's just learn about it.
link |
00:40:24.160
This looks like the thing I've seen 10,000 times before.
link |
00:40:26.520
So maybe it's the same thing, machine learning perspective.
link |
00:40:30.280
And that has really put, I think,
link |
00:40:32.160
all these approaches on steroids.
link |
00:40:36.000
At Udacity, we teach a course in self driving cars.
link |
00:40:38.720
In fact, I think we've graduated over 20,000 or so people
link |
00:40:43.800
on self driving car skills.
link |
00:40:45.000
So every self driving car team in the world
link |
00:40:47.440
now uses our engineers.
link |
00:40:49.280
And in this course, the very first homework assignment
link |
00:40:51.920
is to do lane finding on images.
link |
00:40:54.920
And lane finding images for layman,
link |
00:40:56.960
what this means is you put a camera into your car
link |
00:40:59.040
or you open your eyes and you would know where the lane is.
link |
00:41:02.440
So you can stay inside the lane with your car.
link |
00:41:05.000
Humans can do this super easily.
link |
00:41:06.520
You just look and you know where the lane is,
link |
00:41:08.120
just intuitively.
link |
00:41:10.200
For machines, for a long time, it was super hard
link |
00:41:12.240
because people would write these kind of crazy rules.
link |
00:41:14.680
If there's like wine lane markers
link |
00:41:16.120
and here's what white really means,
link |
00:41:17.680
this is not quite white enough.
link |
00:41:19.160
So let's, oh, it's not white.
link |
00:41:20.360
Or maybe the sun is shining.
link |
00:41:21.480
So when the sun shines and this is white
link |
00:41:23.520
and this is a straight line,
link |
00:41:24.720
I mean, it's not quite a straight line
link |
00:41:25.760
because the road is curved.
link |
00:41:27.320
And do we know that there's really six feet
link |
00:41:29.280
between lane markings or not or 12 feet, whatever it is.
link |
00:41:34.000
And now what the students are doing,
link |
00:41:36.320
they would take machine learning.
link |
00:41:37.440
So instead of like writing these crazy rules
link |
00:41:39.640
for the lane marker,
link |
00:41:40.480
they'll say, hey, let's take an hour of driving
link |
00:41:42.720
and label it and tell the vehicle,
link |
00:41:44.440
this is actually the lane by hand.
link |
00:41:45.800
And then these are examples
link |
00:41:47.360
and have the machine find its own rules,
link |
00:41:49.400
what lane markings are.
link |
00:41:51.400
And within 24 hours, now every student
link |
00:41:53.800
that's never done any programming before in this space
link |
00:41:56.040
can write a perfect lane finder
link |
00:41:58.320
as good as the best commercial lane finders.
link |
00:42:00.880
And that's completely amazing to me.
link |
00:42:02.760
We've seen progress using machine learning
link |
00:42:05.520
that completely dwarfs anything
link |
00:42:08.160
that I saw 10 years ago.
link |
00:42:10.960
Yeah, and just as a side note,
link |
00:42:12.840
the self driving car nanodegree,
link |
00:42:15.240
the fact that you launched that many years ago now,
link |
00:42:18.960
maybe four years ago, three years ago is incredible
link |
00:42:22.080
that that's a great example of system level thinking
link |
00:42:24.760
sort of just taking an entire course
link |
00:42:27.160
that teaches you how to solve the entire problem.
link |
00:42:29.280
I definitely recommend people.
link |
00:42:31.240
It's become super popular
link |
00:42:32.480
and it's become actually incredibly high quality
link |
00:42:34.320
really with Mercedes and various other companies
link |
00:42:37.360
in that space.
link |
00:42:38.200
And we find that engineers from Tesla and Waymo
link |
00:42:40.600
are taking it today.
link |
00:42:43.120
The insight was that two things,
link |
00:42:45.520
one is existing universities will be very slow to move
link |
00:42:49.240
because they're departmentalized
link |
00:42:50.520
and there's no department for self driving cars.
link |
00:42:52.360
So between Mac E and double E and computer science,
link |
00:42:56.240
getting those folks together
link |
00:42:57.240
into one room is really, really hard.
link |
00:42:59.680
And every professor listening here will know,
link |
00:43:01.280
they'll probably agree to that.
link |
00:43:02.960
And secondly, even if all the great universities
link |
00:43:06.400
just did this, which none so far has developed
link |
00:43:09.120
a curriculum in this field,
link |
00:43:11.120
it is just a few thousand students that can partake
link |
00:43:13.720
because all the great universities are super selective.
link |
00:43:16.280
So how about people in India?
link |
00:43:18.160
How about people in China or in the Middle East
link |
00:43:20.680
or Indonesia or Africa?
link |
00:43:23.480
Why should those be excluded
link |
00:43:25.200
from the skill of building self driving cars?
link |
00:43:27.280
Are they any dumber than we are?
link |
00:43:28.480
Are we any less privileged?
link |
00:43:30.240
And the answer is we should just give everybody the skill
link |
00:43:34.880
to build a self driving car.
link |
00:43:35.920
Because if we do this,
link |
00:43:37.440
then we have like a thousand self driving car startups.
link |
00:43:40.360
And if 10% succeed, that's like a hundred,
link |
00:43:42.960
that means hundred countries now
link |
00:43:44.200
will have self driving cars and be safer.
link |
00:43:46.800
It's kind of interesting to imagine impossible to quantify,
link |
00:43:50.360
but the number, the, you know,
link |
00:43:53.600
over a period of several decades,
link |
00:43:55.080
the impact that has like a single course,
link |
00:43:57.960
like a ripple effect of society.
link |
00:44:00.760
If you, I just recently talked to Andrew
link |
00:44:03.520
who was creator of Cosmos show.
link |
00:44:06.560
It's interesting to think about
link |
00:44:08.200
how many scientists that show launched.
link |
00:44:10.720
And so it's really, in terms of impact,
link |
00:44:15.600
I can't imagine a better course
link |
00:44:17.200
than the self driving car course.
link |
00:44:18.680
That's, you know, there's other more specific disciplines
link |
00:44:21.840
like deep learning and so on that Udacity is also teaching,
link |
00:44:24.120
but self driving cars,
link |
00:44:25.160
it's really, really interesting course.
link |
00:44:26.920
And then it came at the right moment.
link |
00:44:28.440
It came at a time when there were a bunch of Acqui hires.
link |
00:44:31.720
Acqui hire is a acquisition of a company,
link |
00:44:34.200
not for its technology or its products or business,
link |
00:44:36.400
but for its people.
link |
00:44:38.320
So Acqui hire means maybe that a company of 70 people,
link |
00:44:40.640
they have no product yet, but they're super smart people
link |
00:44:43.160
and they pay a certain amount of money.
link |
00:44:44.320
So I took Acqui hires like GM Cruise and Uber and others,
link |
00:44:48.440
and did the math and said,
link |
00:44:50.120
hey, how many people are there and how much money was paid?
link |
00:44:53.760
And as a lower bound,
link |
00:44:55.640
I estimated the value of a self driving car engineer
link |
00:44:58.560
in these acquisitions to be at least $10 million, right?
link |
00:45:02.240
So think about this, you get yourself a skill
link |
00:45:05.080
and you team up and build a company
link |
00:45:06.680
and your worth now is $10 million.
link |
00:45:09.800
I mean, that's kind of cool.
link |
00:45:10.840
I mean, what other thing could you do in life
link |
00:45:13.440
to be worth $10 million within a year?
link |
00:45:15.920
Yeah, amazing.
link |
00:45:17.640
But to come back for a moment on to deep learning
link |
00:45:21.000
and its application in autonomous vehicles,
link |
00:45:23.760
what are your thoughts on Elon Musk's statement,
link |
00:45:28.480
provocative statement, perhaps that light air is a crutch.
link |
00:45:31.080
So this geometric way of thinking about the world
link |
00:45:34.000
may be holding us back if what we should instead be doing
link |
00:45:38.920
in this robotic space,
link |
00:45:39.920
in this particular space of autonomous vehicles
link |
00:45:42.520
is using camera as a primary sensor
link |
00:45:46.440
and using computer vision and machine learning
link |
00:45:48.200
as the primary way to...
link |
00:45:49.720
Look, I have two comments.
link |
00:45:50.560
I think first of all, we all know
link |
00:45:52.240
that people can drive cars without lighters in their heads
link |
00:45:56.880
because we only have eyes
link |
00:45:59.000
and we mostly just use eyes for driving.
link |
00:46:02.080
Maybe we use some other perception about our bodies,
link |
00:46:04.560
accelerations, occasionally our ears,
link |
00:46:08.000
certainly not our noses.
link |
00:46:10.680
So the existence proof is there,
link |
00:46:12.440
that eyes must be sufficient.
link |
00:46:15.560
In fact, we could even drive a car
link |
00:46:17.920
if someone put a camera out
link |
00:46:19.440
and then gave us the camera image with no latency,
link |
00:46:23.440
we would be able to drive a car that way the same way.
link |
00:46:26.360
So a camera is also sufficient.
link |
00:46:28.720
Secondly, I really love the idea that in the Western world,
link |
00:46:31.840
we have many, many different people
link |
00:46:33.600
trying different hypotheses.
link |
00:46:35.680
It's almost like an anthill,
link |
00:46:36.840
like if an anthill tries to forge for food,
link |
00:46:39.560
you can sit there as two ants
link |
00:46:41.000
and agree what the perfect path is
link |
00:46:42.560
and then every single ant marches
link |
00:46:44.040
for the most likely location of food is,
link |
00:46:46.320
or you can even just spread out.
link |
00:46:47.960
And I promise you the spread out solution will be better
link |
00:46:50.440
because if the discussing philosophical,
link |
00:46:53.960
intellectual ants get it wrong
link |
00:46:55.560
and they're all moving the wrong direction,
link |
00:46:56.920
they're going to waste a day
link |
00:46:58.240
and then they're going to discuss again for another week.
link |
00:47:00.520
Whereas if all these ants go in a random direction,
link |
00:47:02.480
someone's going to succeed
link |
00:47:03.520
and they're going to come back and claim victory
link |
00:47:05.560
and get the Nobel prize or whatever the ant equivalent is.
link |
00:47:08.520
And then they all march in the same direction.
link |
00:47:10.520
And that's great about society.
link |
00:47:11.800
That's great about the Western society.
link |
00:47:13.160
We're not plan based, we're not central based.
link |
00:47:15.480
We don't have a Soviet Union style central government
link |
00:47:19.120
that tells us where to forge.
link |
00:47:20.960
We just forge.
link |
00:47:21.800
We started in C Corp.
link |
00:47:24.040
We get investor money, go out and try it out.
link |
00:47:25.840
And who knows who's going to win.
link |
00:47:28.720
I like it.
link |
00:47:30.160
In your, when you look at the longterm vision
link |
00:47:33.440
of autonomous vehicles,
link |
00:47:35.160
do you see machine learning
link |
00:47:36.920
as fundamentally being able to solve most of the problems?
link |
00:47:39.600
So learning from experience.
link |
00:47:42.280
I'd say we should be very clear
link |
00:47:44.200
about what machine learning is and is not.
link |
00:47:46.080
And I think there's a lot of confusion.
link |
00:47:48.160
What it is today is a technology
link |
00:47:50.880
that can go through large databases
link |
00:47:54.680
of repetitive patterns and find those patterns.
link |
00:48:00.880
So in example, we did a study at Stanford two years ago
link |
00:48:03.560
where we applied machine learning
link |
00:48:05.440
to detecting skin cancer in images.
link |
00:48:07.880
And we harvested or built a data set
link |
00:48:10.760
of 129,000 skin photo shots
link |
00:48:15.080
that were all had been biopsied
link |
00:48:17.000
for what the actual situation was.
link |
00:48:19.440
And those included melanomas and carcinomas,
link |
00:48:22.680
also included rashes and other skin conditions, lesions.
link |
00:48:27.200
And then we had a network find those patterns.
link |
00:48:30.720
And it was by and large able to then detect skin cancer
link |
00:48:34.520
with an iPhone as accurately
link |
00:48:36.680
as the best board certified Stanford level dermatologist.
link |
00:48:41.400
We proved that.
link |
00:48:42.800
Now this thing was great in this one thing
link |
00:48:45.880
and finding skin cancer, but it couldn't drive a car.
link |
00:48:49.680
So the difference to human intelligence
link |
00:48:51.600
is we do all these many, many things
link |
00:48:53.280
and we can often learn from a very small data set
link |
00:48:56.720
of experiences.
link |
00:48:58.160
Whereas machines still need very large data sets
link |
00:49:01.120
and things that will be very repetitive.
link |
00:49:03.320
Now that's still super impactful
link |
00:49:04.680
because almost everything we do is repetitive.
link |
00:49:06.440
So that's gonna really transform human labor
link |
00:49:10.000
but it's not this almighty general intelligence.
link |
00:49:13.120
We're really far away from a system
link |
00:49:15.280
that will exhibit general intelligence.
link |
00:49:18.760
To that end, I actually commiserate the naming a little bit
link |
00:49:21.320
because artificial intelligence, if you believe Hollywood
link |
00:49:24.440
is immediately mixed into the idea of human suppression
link |
00:49:27.320
and machine superiority.
link |
00:49:30.360
I don't think that we're gonna see this in my lifetime.
link |
00:49:32.960
I don't think human suppression is a good idea.
link |
00:49:36.440
I don't see it coming.
link |
00:49:37.440
I don't see the technology being there.
link |
00:49:39.720
What I see instead is a very pointed focused
link |
00:49:42.960
pattern recognition technology that's able to
link |
00:49:45.440
extract patterns from large data sets.
link |
00:49:48.400
And in doing so, it can be super impactful.
link |
00:49:51.520
Super impactful.
link |
00:49:53.520
Let's take the impact of artificial intelligence
link |
00:49:55.920
on human work.
link |
00:49:57.640
We all know that it takes something like 10,000 hours
link |
00:50:00.520
to become an expert.
link |
00:50:01.520
If you're gonna be a doctor or a lawyer
link |
00:50:03.360
or even a really good driver,
link |
00:50:05.320
it takes a certain amount of time to become experts.
link |
00:50:08.520
Machines now are able and have been shown
link |
00:50:11.400
to observe people become experts and observe experts
link |
00:50:15.640
and then extract those rules from experts
link |
00:50:17.440
in some interesting way.
link |
00:50:18.680
They could go from law to sales to driving cars
link |
00:50:25.840
to diagnosing cancer.
link |
00:50:28.200
And then giving that capability to people who are
link |
00:50:30.840
completely new in their job.
link |
00:50:32.320
We now can, and that's been done.
link |
00:50:34.760
It's been done commercially in many, many instantiations.
link |
00:50:37.800
So that means we can use machine learning
link |
00:50:40.120
to make people expert on the very first day of their work.
link |
00:50:44.880
Like think about the impact.
link |
00:50:45.880
If your doctor is still in their first 10,000 hours,
link |
00:50:50.360
you have a doctor who is not quite an expert yet.
link |
00:50:53.120
Who would not want a doctor who is the world's best expert?
link |
00:50:56.720
And now we can leverage machines to really eradicate
link |
00:51:00.400
the error in decision making,
link |
00:51:02.760
error and lack of expertise for human doctors.
link |
00:51:06.240
That could save your life.
link |
00:51:08.360
If we can link on that for a little bit,
link |
00:51:10.360
in which way do you hope machines in the medical field
link |
00:51:14.800
could help assist doctors?
link |
00:51:16.360
You mentioned this sort of accelerating the learning curve
link |
00:51:21.320
or people, if they start a job or in the first 10,000 hours
link |
00:51:26.120
can be assisted by machines.
link |
00:51:27.360
How do you envision that assistance looking?
link |
00:51:29.720
So we built this app for an iPhone that can detect
link |
00:51:33.480
and classify and diagnose skin cancer.
link |
00:51:36.320
And we proved two years ago that it does pretty much
link |
00:51:40.560
as good or better than the best human doctors.
link |
00:51:42.240
So let me tell you a story.
link |
00:51:43.600
So there's a friend of mine, let's call him Ben.
link |
00:51:45.480
Ben is a very famous venture capitalist.
link |
00:51:47.680
He goes to his doctor and the doctor looks at a mole
link |
00:51:50.720
and says, hey, that mole is probably harmless.
link |
00:51:55.360
And for some very funny reason, he pulls out that phone
link |
00:51:59.800
with our app.
link |
00:52:00.640
He's a collaborator in our study.
link |
00:52:02.640
And the app says, no, no, no, no, this is a melanoma.
link |
00:52:06.320
And for background, melanomas are,
link |
00:52:08.720
and skin cancer is the most common cancer in this country.
link |
00:52:12.400
Melanomas can go from stage zero to stage four
link |
00:52:16.640
within less than a year.
link |
00:52:18.120
Stage zero means you can basically cut it out yourself
link |
00:52:20.880
with a kitchen knife and be safe.
link |
00:52:23.200
And stage four means your chances of living
link |
00:52:25.520
five more years in less than 20%.
link |
00:52:28.000
So it's a very serious, serious, serious condition.
link |
00:52:31.160
So this doctor who took out the iPhone,
link |
00:52:36.160
looked at the iPhone and was a little bit puzzled.
link |
00:52:37.680
He said, I mean, but just to be safe,
link |
00:52:39.720
let's cut it out and biopsy it.
link |
00:52:41.600
That's the technical term for let's get
link |
00:52:43.560
an in depth diagnostics that is more than just looking at it.
link |
00:52:47.720
And it came back as cancerous, as a melanoma.
link |
00:52:50.760
And it was then removed.
link |
00:52:52.240
And my friend, Ben, I was hiking with him
link |
00:52:54.960
and we were talking about AI.
link |
00:52:56.280
And I told him I do this work on skin cancer.
link |
00:52:58.880
And he said, oh, funny.
link |
00:53:00.720
My doctor just had an iPhone that found my cancer.
link |
00:53:05.480
So I was like completely intrigued.
link |
00:53:06.920
I didn't even know about this.
link |
00:53:08.200
So here's a person, I mean, this is a real human life, right?
link |
00:53:11.640
Like who doesn't know somebody
link |
00:53:12.920
who has been affected by cancer.
link |
00:53:14.000
Cancer is cause of death number two.
link |
00:53:16.160
Cancer is this kind of disease that is mean
link |
00:53:19.440
in the following way.
link |
00:53:21.080
Most cancers can actually be cured relatively easily
link |
00:53:24.520
if we catch them early.
link |
00:53:25.880
And the reason why we don't tend to catch them early
link |
00:53:28.360
is because they have no symptoms.
link |
00:53:30.600
Like your very first symptom of a gallbladder cancer
link |
00:53:33.880
or a pancreas cancer might be a headache.
link |
00:53:37.040
And when you finally go to your doctor
link |
00:53:38.680
because of these headaches or your back pain
link |
00:53:41.600
and you're being imaged, it's usually stage four plus.
link |
00:53:45.880
And that's the time when the occurring chances
link |
00:53:48.200
might be dropped to a single digit percentage.
link |
00:53:50.880
So if we could leverage AI to inspect your body
link |
00:53:54.560
on a regular basis without even a doctor in the room,
link |
00:53:58.120
maybe when you take a shower or what have you,
link |
00:54:00.360
I know this sounds creepy,
link |
00:54:01.480
but then we might be able to save millions
link |
00:54:03.800
and millions of lives.
link |
00:54:06.320
You've mentioned there's a concern that people have
link |
00:54:09.520
about near term impacts of AI in terms of job loss.
link |
00:54:12.880
So you've mentioned being able to assist doctors,
link |
00:54:15.560
being able to assist people in their jobs.
link |
00:54:17.940
Do you have a worry of people losing their jobs
link |
00:54:22.260
or the economy being affected by the improvements in AI?
link |
00:54:25.480
Yeah, anybody concerned about job losses,
link |
00:54:27.680
please come to Gdacity.com.
link |
00:54:30.040
We teach contemporary tech skills
link |
00:54:32.320
and we have a kind of implicit job promise.
link |
00:54:36.680
We often, when we measure,
link |
00:54:38.960
we spend way over 50% of our graders in new jobs
link |
00:54:41.840
and they're very satisfied about it.
link |
00:54:43.720
And it costs almost nothing,
link |
00:54:44.800
costs like 1,500 max or something like that.
link |
00:54:47.120
And so there's a cool new program
link |
00:54:48.920
that you agree with the U.S. government,
link |
00:54:51.080
guaranteeing that you will help us give scholarships
link |
00:54:54.880
that educate people in this kind of situation.
link |
00:54:57.840
Yeah, we're working with the U.S. government
link |
00:54:59.960
on the idea of basically rebuilding the American dream.
link |
00:55:03.880
So Gdacity has just dedicated 100,000 scholarships
link |
00:55:07.440
for citizens of America for various levels of courses
link |
00:55:12.080
that eventually will get you a job.
link |
00:55:15.560
And those courses are all somewhat related
link |
00:55:18.740
to the tech sector because the tech sector
link |
00:55:20.460
is kind of the hottest sector right now.
link |
00:55:22.060
And they range from interlevel digital marketing
link |
00:55:24.940
to very advanced self diving car engineering.
link |
00:55:28.060
And we're doing this with the White House
link |
00:55:29.420
because we think it's bipartisan.
link |
00:55:30.860
It's an issue that if you wanna really make America great,
link |
00:55:36.020
being able to be a part of the solution
link |
00:55:40.060
and live the American dream requires us to be proactive
link |
00:55:43.780
about our education and our skillset.
link |
00:55:45.780
It's just the way it is today.
link |
00:55:47.700
And it's always been this way.
link |
00:55:48.700
And we always had this American dream
link |
00:55:49.940
to send our kids to college.
link |
00:55:51.140
And now the American dream has to be
link |
00:55:53.260
to send ourselves to college.
link |
00:55:54.660
We can do this very, very, very efficiently
link |
00:55:58.220
and very, very, we can squeeze in in the evenings
link |
00:56:00.900
and things to online.
link |
00:56:01.820
So at all ages.
link |
00:56:03.140
All ages.
link |
00:56:03.980
So our learners go from age 11 to age 80.
link |
00:56:08.980
I just traveled Germany and the guy in the train compartment
link |
00:56:15.180
next to me was one of my students.
link |
00:56:17.500
It's like, wow, that's amazing.
link |
00:56:19.820
Think about impact.
link |
00:56:21.020
We've become the educator of choice for now,
link |
00:56:24.020
I believe officially six countries or five countries.
link |
00:56:26.500
Most in the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia and in Egypt.
link |
00:56:30.080
In Egypt, we just had a cohort graduate
link |
00:56:33.420
where we had 1100 high school students
link |
00:56:37.280
that went through programming skills,
link |
00:56:39.820
proficient at the level of a computer science undergrad.
link |
00:56:42.920
And we had a 95% graduation rate,
link |
00:56:45.220
even though everything's online, it's kind of tough,
link |
00:56:46.900
but we kind of trying to figure out
link |
00:56:48.260
how to make this effective.
link |
00:56:50.120
The vision is very, very simple.
link |
00:56:52.540
The vision is education ought to be a basic human right.
link |
00:56:58.340
It cannot be locked up behind ivory tower walls
link |
00:57:02.320
only for the rich people, for the parents
link |
00:57:04.420
who might be bribe themselves into the system.
link |
00:57:06.780
And only for young people and only for people
link |
00:57:09.260
from the right demographics and the right geography
link |
00:57:11.740
and possibly even the right race.
link |
00:57:14.260
It has to be opened up to everybody.
link |
00:57:15.860
If we are truthful to the human mission,
link |
00:57:18.740
if we are truthful to our values,
link |
00:57:20.660
we're gonna open up education to everybody in the world.
link |
00:57:23.460
So Udacity's pledge of 100,000 scholarships,
link |
00:57:27.220
I think is the biggest pledge of scholarships ever
link |
00:57:29.220
in terms of numbers.
link |
00:57:30.760
And we're working, as I said, with the White House
link |
00:57:33.020
and with very accomplished CEOs like Tim Cook
link |
00:57:36.100
from Apple and others to really bring education
link |
00:57:39.020
to everywhere in the world.
link |
00:57:40.980
Not to ask you to pick the favorite of your children,
link |
00:57:44.620
but at this point.
link |
00:57:45.580
Oh, that's Jasper.
link |
00:57:46.600
I only have one that I know of.
link |
00:57:49.740
Okay, good.
link |
00:57:52.700
In this particular moment, what nano degree,
link |
00:57:55.820
what set of courses are you most excited about at Udacity
link |
00:58:00.060
or is that too impossible to pick?
link |
00:58:02.020
I've been super excited about something
link |
00:58:03.820
we haven't launched yet in the building,
link |
00:58:05.500
which is when we talk to our partner companies,
link |
00:58:09.100
we have now a very strong footing in the enterprise world.
link |
00:58:12.700
And also to our students,
link |
00:58:14.580
we've kind of always focused on these hard skills,
link |
00:58:17.260
like the programming skills or math skills
link |
00:58:19.740
or building skills or design skills.
link |
00:58:22.180
And a very common ask is soft skills.
link |
00:58:25.180
Like how do you behave in your work?
link |
00:58:26.860
How do you develop empathy?
link |
00:58:28.280
How do you work on a team?
link |
00:58:30.460
What are the very basics of management?
link |
00:58:32.380
How do you do time management?
link |
00:58:33.700
How do you advance your career
link |
00:58:36.240
in the context of a broader community?
link |
00:58:39.260
And that's something that we haven't done very well
link |
00:58:41.740
at Udacity and I would say most universities
link |
00:58:43.860
are doing very poorly as well
link |
00:58:45.180
because we are so obsessed with individual test scores
link |
00:58:47.900
and pays a little attention to teamwork in education.
link |
00:58:52.620
So that's something I see us moving into as a company
link |
00:58:55.500
because I'm excited about this.
link |
00:58:56.940
And I think, look, we can teach people tech skills
link |
00:59:00.100
and they're gonna be great.
link |
00:59:00.940
But if you teach people empathy,
link |
00:59:02.700
that's gonna have the same impact.
link |
00:59:04.960
Maybe harder than self driving cars, but.
link |
00:59:08.100
I don't think so.
link |
00:59:08.940
I think the rules are really simple.
link |
00:59:11.300
You just have to, you have to want to engage.
link |
00:59:14.380
It's, we literally went in school and in K through 12,
link |
00:59:18.180
we teach kids like get the highest math score.
link |
00:59:20.460
And if you are a rational human being,
link |
00:59:22.900
you might evolve from this education say,
link |
00:59:25.620
having the best math score and the best English scores
link |
00:59:28.060
make me the best leader.
link |
00:59:29.640
And it turns out not to be that case.
link |
00:59:31.060
It's actually really wrong because making the,
link |
00:59:34.340
first of all, in terms of math scores,
link |
00:59:35.820
I think it's perfectly fine to hire somebody
link |
00:59:37.620
with great math skills.
link |
00:59:38.500
You don't have to do it yourself.
link |
00:59:40.620
You can hire someone with good empathy for you.
link |
00:59:42.740
That's much harder,
link |
00:59:43.860
but you can always hire someone with great math skills.
link |
00:59:46.340
But we live in an affluent world
link |
00:59:48.940
where we constantly deal with other people.
link |
00:59:51.000
And that's a beauty.
link |
00:59:51.880
It's not a nuisance.
link |
00:59:52.760
It's a beauty.
link |
00:59:53.600
So if we somehow develop that muscle
link |
00:59:55.940
that we can do that well and empower others
link |
00:59:59.700
in the workplace, I think we're gonna be super successful.
link |
01:00:02.880
And I know many fellow robot assistant computer scientists
link |
01:00:07.220
that I will insist to take this course.
link |
01:00:09.820
Not to be named here.
link |
01:00:12.180
Not to be named.
link |
01:00:13.740
Many, many years ago, 1903,
link |
01:00:17.940
the Wright brothers flew in Kitty Hawk for the first time.
link |
01:00:22.580
And you've launched a company of the same name, Kitty Hawk,
link |
01:00:26.940
with the dream of building flying cars, eVTOLs.
link |
01:00:32.300
So at the big picture,
link |
01:00:34.560
what are the big challenges of making this thing
link |
01:00:36.620
that actually have inspired generations of people
link |
01:00:39.980
about what the future looks like?
link |
01:00:41.740
What does it take?
link |
01:00:42.580
What are the biggest challenges?
link |
01:00:43.660
So flying cars has always been a dream.
link |
01:00:47.220
Every boy, every girl wants to fly.
link |
01:00:49.700
Let's be honest.
link |
01:00:50.540
Yes.
link |
01:00:51.360
And let's go back in our history
link |
01:00:52.340
of your dreaming of flying.
link |
01:00:53.760
I think honestly, my single most remembered childhood dream
link |
01:00:57.420
has been a dream where I was sitting on a pillow
link |
01:00:59.420
and I could fly.
link |
01:01:00.740
I was like five years old.
link |
01:01:02.020
I remember like maybe three dreams of my childhood,
link |
01:01:04.140
but that's the one I remember most vividly.
link |
01:01:07.540
And then Peter Thiel famously said,
link |
01:01:09.400
they promised us flying cars
link |
01:01:10.660
and they gave us 140 characters pointing as Twitter
link |
01:01:14.460
at the time, limited message size to 140 characters.
link |
01:01:18.380
So if you're coming back now to really go
link |
01:01:20.220
for these super impactful stuff like flying cars
link |
01:01:23.220
and to be precise, they're not really cars.
link |
01:01:25.900
They don't have wheels.
link |
01:01:27.140
They're actually much closer to a helicopter
link |
01:01:28.580
than anything else.
link |
01:01:29.640
They take off vertically and they fly horizontally,
link |
01:01:32.080
but they have important differences.
link |
01:01:34.380
One difference is that they are much quieter.
link |
01:01:37.740
We just released a vehicle called Project Heaviside
link |
01:01:41.580
that can fly over you as low as a helicopter
link |
01:01:43.500
and you basically can't hear.
link |
01:01:45.200
It's like 38 decibels.
link |
01:01:46.700
It's like, if you were inside the library,
link |
01:01:49.240
you might be able to hear it,
link |
01:01:50.220
but anywhere outdoors, your ambient noise is higher.
link |
01:01:53.540
Secondly, they're much more affordable.
link |
01:01:57.020
They're much more affordable than helicopters.
link |
01:01:58.980
And the reason is helicopters are expensive
link |
01:02:01.920
for many reasons.
link |
01:02:04.380
There's lots of single point of figures in a helicopter.
link |
01:02:06.980
There's a bolt between the blades
link |
01:02:09.140
that's caused Jesus bolt.
link |
01:02:10.780
And the reason why it's called Jesus bolt
link |
01:02:12.420
is that if this bolt breaks, you will die.
link |
01:02:16.380
There is no second solution in helicopter flight.
link |
01:02:19.500
Whereas we have these distributed mechanism.
link |
01:02:21.500
When you go from gasoline to electric,
link |
01:02:23.740
you can now have many, many, many small motors
link |
01:02:25.820
as opposed to one big motor.
link |
01:02:27.260
And that means if you lose one of those motors,
link |
01:02:28.780
not a big deal.
link |
01:02:29.620
Heaviside, if it loses a motor, has eight of those.
link |
01:02:32.820
If it loses one of those eight motors,
link |
01:02:34.020
so it's seven left, it can take off just like before
link |
01:02:37.260
and land just like before.
link |
01:02:40.100
We are now also moving into a technology
link |
01:02:42.020
that doesn't require a commercial pilot
link |
01:02:44.160
because in some level,
link |
01:02:45.500
flight is actually easier than ground transportation
link |
01:02:48.980
like in self driving cars.
link |
01:02:51.820
The world is full of like children and bicycles
link |
01:02:54.500
and other cars and mailboxes and curbs and shrubs
link |
01:02:57.580
and what have you.
link |
01:02:58.420
All these things you have to avoid.
link |
01:03:00.500
When you go above the buildings and tree lines,
link |
01:03:03.740
there's nothing there.
link |
01:03:04.620
I mean, you can do the test right now,
link |
01:03:06.100
look outside and count the number of things you see flying.
link |
01:03:09.420
I'd be shocked if you could see more than two things.
link |
01:03:11.500
It's probably just zero.
link |
01:03:13.860
In the Bay Area, the most I've ever seen was six.
link |
01:03:16.940
And maybe it's 15 or 20,
link |
01:03:18.820
but not 10,000.
link |
01:03:20.400
So the sky is very ample and very empty and very free.
link |
01:03:24.000
So the vision is, can we build a socially acceptable
link |
01:03:27.820
mass transit solution for daily transportation
link |
01:03:32.360
that is affordable?
link |
01:03:34.280
And we have an existence proof.
link |
01:03:36.340
Heaviside can fly 100 miles in range
link |
01:03:39.780
with still 30% electric reserves.
link |
01:03:43.260
It can fly up to like 180 miles an hour.
link |
01:03:46.060
We know that that solution at scale
link |
01:03:48.900
would make your ground transportation
link |
01:03:51.420
10 times as fast as a car
link |
01:03:53.820
based on use census or statistics data,
link |
01:03:57.580
which means you would take your 300 hours of daily,
link |
01:04:00.900
of yearly commute down to 30 hours
link |
01:04:03.020
and give you 270 hours back.
link |
01:04:05.180
Who wouldn't want, I mean, who doesn't hate traffic?
link |
01:04:07.700
Like I hate, give me the person that doesn't hate traffic.
link |
01:04:10.820
I hate traffic.
link |
01:04:11.660
Every time I'm in traffic, I hate it.
link |
01:04:13.900
And if we could free the world from traffic,
link |
01:04:17.580
we have technology.
link |
01:04:18.460
We can free the world from traffic.
link |
01:04:20.060
We have the technology.
link |
01:04:21.340
It's there.
link |
01:04:22.180
We have an existence proof.
link |
01:04:23.060
It's not a technological problem anymore.
link |
01:04:25.440
Do you think there is a future where tens of thousands,
link |
01:04:29.340
maybe hundreds of thousands of both delivery drones
link |
01:04:34.380
and flying cars of this kind, EV talls fill the sky?
link |
01:04:39.940
I absolutely believe this.
link |
01:04:40.940
And there's obviously the societal acceptance
link |
01:04:43.860
is a major question.
link |
01:04:45.460
And of course, safety is.
link |
01:04:46.940
I believe in safety,
link |
01:04:48.060
we're gonna exceed ground transportation safety
link |
01:04:50.340
as has happened for aviation already, commercial aviation.
link |
01:04:54.500
And in terms of acceptance,
link |
01:04:56.640
I think one of the key things is noise.
link |
01:04:58.320
That's why we are focusing relentlessly on noise
link |
01:05:00.980
and we build perhaps the quietest electric vehicle
link |
01:05:05.660
ever built.
link |
01:05:07.640
The nice thing about the sky is it's three dimensional.
link |
01:05:09.760
So any mathematician will immediately recognize
link |
01:05:12.520
the difference between 1D of like a regular highway
link |
01:05:14.980
to 3D of a sky.
link |
01:05:17.320
But to make it clear for the layman,
link |
01:05:20.220
say you wanna make 100 vertical lanes
link |
01:05:22.740
of highway 101 in San Francisco,
link |
01:05:25.040
because you believe building 100 vertical lanes
link |
01:05:27.220
is the right solution.
link |
01:05:28.900
Imagine how much it would cost to stack 100 vertical lanes
link |
01:05:31.780
physically onto 101.
link |
01:05:33.420
That would be prohibitive.
link |
01:05:34.340
That would be consuming the world's GDP for an entire year
link |
01:05:37.780
just for one highway.
link |
01:05:39.260
It's amazingly expensive.
link |
01:05:41.300
In the sky, it would just be a recompilation
link |
01:05:43.740
of a piece of software because all these lanes are virtual.
link |
01:05:46.580
That means any vehicle that is in conflict
link |
01:05:49.260
with another vehicle would just go to different altitudes
link |
01:05:51.860
and then the conflict is gone.
link |
01:05:53.340
And if you don't believe this,
link |
01:05:55.380
that's exactly how commercial aviation works.
link |
01:05:58.580
When you fly from New York to San Francisco,
link |
01:06:01.460
another plane flies from San Francisco to New York,
link |
01:06:04.240
they are different altitudes.
link |
01:06:05.300
So they don't hit each other.
link |
01:06:06.740
It's a solved problem for the jet space
link |
01:06:10.420
and it will be a solved problem for the urban space.
link |
01:06:12.780
There's companies like Google Wing and Amazon
link |
01:06:15.380
working on very innovative solutions.
link |
01:06:17.060
How do we have space management?
link |
01:06:18.580
They use exactly the same principles as we use today
link |
01:06:21.660
to route today's jets.
link |
01:06:23.300
There's nothing hard about this.
link |
01:06:25.940
Do you envision autonomy being a key part of it
link |
01:06:29.040
so that the flying vehicles are either semi autonomous
link |
01:06:34.040
semi autonomous or fully autonomous?
link |
01:06:36.920
100% autonomous.
link |
01:06:37.880
You don't want idiots like me flying in the sky,
link |
01:06:40.480
I promise you.
link |
01:06:41.960
And if you have 10,000,
link |
01:06:44.280
watch the movie, The Fifth Element
link |
01:06:46.040
to get a feel for what will happen if it's not autonomous.
link |
01:06:49.480
And a centralized, that's a really interesting idea
link |
01:06:51.720
of a centralized sort of management system
link |
01:06:55.240
for lanes and so on.
link |
01:06:56.320
So actually just being able to have
link |
01:07:00.280
similar as we have in the current commercial aviation,
link |
01:07:03.000
but scale it up to much, much more vehicles.
link |
01:07:05.560
That's a really interesting optimization problem.
link |
01:07:07.660
It is very mathematically, very, very straightforward.
link |
01:07:11.080
Like the gap we leave between jets is gargantuous.
link |
01:07:13.520
And part of the reason is there isn't that many jets.
link |
01:07:16.400
So it just feels like a good solution.
link |
01:07:18.800
Today, when you get vectored by air traffic control,
link |
01:07:22.380
someone talks to you, right?
link |
01:07:23.900
So any ATC controller might have up to maybe 20 planes
link |
01:07:26.960
on the same frequency.
link |
01:07:28.160
And then they talk to you, you have to talk back.
link |
01:07:30.360
And it feels right because there isn't more than 20 planes
link |
01:07:32.720
around anyhow, so you can talk to everybody.
link |
01:07:34.960
But if there's 20,000 things around,
link |
01:07:36.760
you can't talk to everybody anymore.
link |
01:07:37.980
So we have to do something that's called digital,
link |
01:07:40.260
like text messaging.
link |
01:07:41.520
Like we do have solutions.
link |
01:07:43.040
Like we have what, four or five billion smartphones
link |
01:07:45.560
in the world now, right?
link |
01:07:46.440
And they're all connected.
link |
01:07:47.720
And somehow we solve the scale problem for smartphones.
link |
01:07:50.720
We know where they all are.
link |
01:07:51.960
They can talk to somebody and they're very reliable.
link |
01:07:54.880
They're amazingly reliable.
link |
01:07:56.460
We could use the same system,
link |
01:07:58.640
the same scale for air traffic control.
link |
01:08:01.080
So instead of me as a pilot talking to a human being
link |
01:08:04.080
and in the middle of the conversation
link |
01:08:06.280
receiving a new frequency, like how ancient is that?
link |
01:08:09.660
We could digitize this stuff
link |
01:08:11.240
and digitally transmit the right flight coordinates.
link |
01:08:15.240
And that solution will automatically scale
link |
01:08:18.060
to 10,000 vehicles.
link |
01:08:20.040
We talked about empathy a little bit.
link |
01:08:22.200
Do you think we will one day build an AI system
link |
01:08:25.800
that a human being can love
link |
01:08:27.580
and that loves that human back, like in the movie, Her?
link |
01:08:31.320
Look, I'm a pragmatist.
link |
01:08:33.960
For me, AI is a tool.
link |
01:08:35.600
It's like a shovel.
link |
01:08:36.920
And the ethics of using the shovel are always
link |
01:08:40.800
with us, the people.
link |
01:08:41.840
And it has to be this way.
link |
01:08:44.040
In terms of emotions,
link |
01:08:47.160
I would hate to come into my kitchen
link |
01:08:49.800
and see that my refrigerator spoiled all my food,
link |
01:08:54.200
then have it explained to me
link |
01:08:55.280
that it fell in love with the dishwasher
link |
01:08:57.960
and it wasn't as nice as the dishwasher.
link |
01:08:59.680
So as a result, it neglected me.
link |
01:09:02.160
That would just be a bad experience
link |
01:09:05.120
and it would be a bad product.
link |
01:09:07.040
I would probably not recommend this refrigerator
link |
01:09:09.520
to my friends.
link |
01:09:11.720
And that's where I draw the line.
link |
01:09:12.880
I think to me, technology has to be reliable
link |
01:09:16.600
and has to be predictable.
link |
01:09:17.680
I want my car to work.
link |
01:09:19.840
I don't want to fall in love with my car.
link |
01:09:22.840
I just want it to work.
link |
01:09:24.560
I want it to compliment me, not to replace me.
link |
01:09:27.160
I have very unique human properties
link |
01:09:30.640
and I want the machines to make me,
link |
01:09:33.420
turn me into a superhuman.
link |
01:09:35.680
Like I'm already a superhuman today,
link |
01:09:37.800
thanks to the machines that surround me.
link |
01:09:39.280
And I give you examples.
link |
01:09:40.780
I can run across the Atlantic
link |
01:09:44.160
at near the speed of sound at 36,000 feet today.
link |
01:09:48.480
That's kind of amazing.
link |
01:09:49.560
I can, my voice now carries me all the way to Australia
link |
01:09:54.640
using a smartphone today.
link |
01:09:56.600
And it's not the speed of sound, which would take hours.
link |
01:10:00.060
It's the speed of light.
link |
01:10:01.300
My voice travels at the speed of light.
link |
01:10:03.820
How cool is that?
link |
01:10:04.660
That makes me superhuman.
link |
01:10:06.320
I would even argue my flushing toilet makes me superhuman.
link |
01:10:10.520
Just think of the time before flushing toilets.
link |
01:10:13.800
And maybe you have a very old person in your family
link |
01:10:16.460
that you can ask about this
link |
01:10:18.480
or take a trip to rural India to experience it.
link |
01:10:23.400
It makes me superhuman.
link |
01:10:25.840
So to me, what technology does, it compliments me.
link |
01:10:28.900
It makes me stronger.
link |
01:10:30.920
Therefore, words like love and compassion
link |
01:10:33.520
have very little interest in this for machines.
link |
01:10:38.640
I have interest in people.
link |
01:10:40.720
You don't think, first of all, beautifully put,
link |
01:10:44.280
beautifully argued,
link |
01:10:45.680
but do you think love has use in our tools?
link |
01:10:49.520
Compassion.
link |
01:10:50.440
I think love is a beautiful human concept.
link |
01:10:53.280
And if you think of what love really is,
link |
01:10:55.420
love is a means to convey safety, to convey trust.
link |
01:11:03.240
I think trust has a huge need in technology as well,
link |
01:11:07.440
not just people.
link |
01:11:09.160
We want to trust our technology the same way,
link |
01:11:12.600
in a similar way we trust people.
link |
01:11:15.960
In human interaction, standards have emerged
link |
01:11:19.360
and feelings, emotions have emerged,
link |
01:11:21.760
maybe genetically, maybe biologically,
link |
01:11:23.920
that are able to convey sense of trust, sense of safety,
link |
01:11:26.560
sense of passion, of love, of dedication
link |
01:11:28.880
that makes the human fabric.
link |
01:11:30.800
And I'm a big slacker for love.
link |
01:11:33.740
I want to be loved.
link |
01:11:34.600
I want to be trusted.
link |
01:11:35.440
I want to be admired.
link |
01:11:36.880
All these wonderful things.
link |
01:11:38.880
And because all of us, we have this beautiful system,
link |
01:11:42.200
I wouldn't just blindly copy this to the machines.
link |
01:11:44.840
Here's why.
link |
01:11:46.200
When you look at, say, transportation,
link |
01:11:49.360
you could have observed that up to the end
link |
01:11:53.320
of the 19th century, almost all transportation used
link |
01:11:57.120
any number of legs, from one leg to two legs
link |
01:11:59.820
to a thousand legs.
link |
01:12:01.720
And you could have concluded that is the right way
link |
01:12:03.840
to move about the environment.
link |
01:12:06.800
We've been made the exception of birds
link |
01:12:08.080
who use flapping wings.
link |
01:12:08.960
In fact, there are many people in aviation
link |
01:12:10.880
that flap wings to their arms and jump from cliffs.
link |
01:12:13.720
Most of them didn't survive.
link |
01:12:16.920
Then the interesting thing is that the technology solutions
link |
01:12:19.880
are very different.
link |
01:12:21.600
Like in technology, it's really easy to build a wheel.
link |
01:12:23.880
In biology, it's super hard to build a wheel.
link |
01:12:25.680
There's very few perpetually rotating things in biology
link |
01:12:30.080
and they usually run cells and things.
link |
01:12:34.180
In engineering, we can build wheels.
link |
01:12:37.200
And those wheels gave rise to cars.
link |
01:12:41.020
Similar wheels gave rise to aviation.
link |
01:12:44.360
Like there's no thing that flies
link |
01:12:46.680
that wouldn't have something that rotates,
link |
01:12:48.840
like a jet engine or helicopter blades.
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01:12:52.400
So the solutions have used very different physical laws
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01:12:55.520
than nature, and that's great.
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01:12:58.040
So for me to be too much focused on,
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01:13:00.080
oh, this is how nature does it, let's just replicate it.
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01:13:03.340
If you really believed that the solution
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01:13:05.400
to the agricultural evolution was a humanoid robot,
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01:13:08.720
you would still be waiting today.
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01:13:10.920
Again, beautifully put.
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01:13:12.520
You said that you don't take yourself too seriously.
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01:13:15.920
Did I say that?
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01:13:18.160
You want me to say that?
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01:13:19.160
Maybe.
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01:13:20.000
You're not taking me seriously.
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01:13:20.960
I'm not, that's right.
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01:13:22.880
Good, you're right, I don't wanna.
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01:13:24.480
I just made that up.
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01:13:25.720
But you have a humor and a lightness about life
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01:13:29.120
that I think is beautiful and inspiring to a lot of people.
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01:13:33.520
Where does that come from?
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01:13:35.040
The smile, the humor, the lightness
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01:13:38.400
amidst all the chaos of the hard work that you're in,
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01:13:42.600
where does that come from?
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01:13:43.640
I just love my life.
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01:13:44.560
I love the people around me.
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01:13:47.520
I'm just so glad to be alive.
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01:13:49.740
Like I'm, what, 52, hard to believe.
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01:13:53.640
People say 52 is a new 51, so now I feel better.
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01:13:56.260
But in looking around the world,
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01:14:01.260
looking around the world, just go back 200, 300 years.
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01:14:06.180
Humanity is, what, 300,000 years old?
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01:14:09.360
But for the first 300,000 years minus the last 100,
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01:14:13.980
our life expectancy would have been
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01:14:17.060
plus or minus 30 years roughly, give or take.
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01:14:20.260
So I would be long dead now.
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01:14:24.360
That makes me just enjoy every single day of my life
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01:14:26.840
because I don't deserve this.
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01:14:28.260
Why am I born today when so many of my ancestors
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01:14:32.460
died of horrible deaths, like famines, massive wars
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01:14:38.820
that ravaged Europe for the last 1,000 years
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01:14:41.860
mystically disappeared after World War II
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01:14:44.520
when the Americans and the Allies
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01:14:46.540
did something amazing to my country
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01:14:48.300
that didn't deserve it, the country of Germany.
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01:14:51.460
This is so amazing.
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01:14:52.620
And then when you're alive and feel this every day,
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01:14:56.960
then it's just so amazing what we can accomplish,
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01:15:02.020
what we can do.
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01:15:03.500
We live in a world that is so incredibly,
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01:15:06.380
vastly changing every day.
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01:15:08.720
Almost everything that we cherish from your smartphone
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01:15:12.900
to your flushing toilet, to all these basic inventions,
link |
01:15:16.220
your new clothes you're wearing, your watch, your plane,
link |
01:15:19.620
penicillin, I don't know, anesthesia for surgery,
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01:15:24.620
penicillin have been invented in the last 150 years.
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01:15:29.060
So in the last 150 years, something magical happened.
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01:15:31.420
And I would trace it back to Gutenberg
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01:15:33.380
and the printing press that has been able
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01:15:34.980
to disseminate information more efficiently than before
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01:15:37.860
that all of a sudden we were able to invent agriculture
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01:15:41.860
and nitrogen fertilization that made agriculture
link |
01:15:44.940
so much more potent that we didn't have to work
link |
01:15:47.100
in the farms anymore and we could start reading and writing
link |
01:15:49.180
and we could become all these wonderful things
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01:15:51.340
we are today, from airline pilot to massage therapist
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01:15:53.860
to software engineer.
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01:15:56.300
It's just amazing.
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01:15:57.140
Like living in that time is such a blessing.
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01:16:00.180
We should sometimes really think about this, right?
link |
01:16:03.940
Steven Pinker, who is a very famous author and philosopher
link |
01:16:06.860
whom I really adore, wrote a great book called
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01:16:08.980
Enlightenment Now.
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01:16:09.820
And that's maybe the one book I would recommend.
link |
01:16:11.420
And he asks the question,
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01:16:13.020
if there was only a single article written
link |
01:16:15.180
in the 20th century, it's only one article, what would it be?
link |
01:16:18.580
What's the most important innovation,
link |
01:16:20.620
the most important thing that happened?
link |
01:16:22.580
And he would say this article would credit
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01:16:24.700
a guy named Karl Bosch.
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01:16:27.020
And I challenge anybody, have you ever heard
link |
01:16:29.460
of the name Karl Foch?
link |
01:16:31.180
I hadn't, okay.
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01:16:32.940
There's a Bosch Corporation in Germany,
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01:16:35.420
but it's not associated with Karl Bosch.
link |
01:16:38.420
So I looked it up.
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01:16:39.860
Karl Bosch invented nitrogen fertilization.
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01:16:42.660
And in doing so, together with an older invention
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01:16:45.580
of irrigation, was able to increase the yields
link |
01:16:49.220
per agricultural land by a factor of 26.
link |
01:16:52.860
So a 2,500% increase in fertility of land.
link |
01:16:57.700
And that, so Steve Pinker argues,
link |
01:17:00.540
saved over 2 billion lives today.
link |
01:17:03.900
2 billion people who would be dead
link |
01:17:05.700
if this man hadn't done what he had done, okay?
link |
01:17:08.420
Think about that impact and what that means to society.
link |
01:17:12.180
That's the way I look at the world.
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01:17:14.180
I mean, it's so amazing to be alive and to be part of this.
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01:17:16.940
And I'm so glad I lived after Karl Bosch and not before.
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01:17:21.300
I don't think there's a better way to end this, Sebastian.
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01:17:23.980
It's an honor to talk to you,
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01:17:25.460
to have had the chance to learn from you.
link |
01:17:27.340
Thank you so much for talking to me.
link |
01:17:28.300
Thanks for coming out.
link |
01:17:29.140
It's been a real pleasure.
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01:17:30.980
Thank you for listening to this conversation
link |
01:17:32.780
with Sebastian Thrun.
link |
01:17:34.380
And thank you to our presenting sponsor, Cash App.
link |
01:17:37.460
Download it, use code LexPodcast,
link |
01:17:40.220
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link |
01:17:43.220
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link |
01:17:45.500
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link |
01:17:47.460
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link |
01:17:50.540
If you enjoy this podcast, subscribe on YouTube,
link |
01:17:53.340
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link |
01:17:56.620
or connect with me on Twitter.
link |
01:17:58.860
And now, let me leave you with some words of wisdom
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01:18:01.260
from Sebastian Thrun.
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01:18:03.260
It's important to celebrate your failures
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01:18:05.420
as much as your successes.
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01:18:07.700
If you celebrate your failures really well,
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01:18:09.780
if you say, wow, I failed, I tried, I was wrong,
link |
01:18:13.900
but I learned something, then you realize you have no fear.
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01:18:18.260
And when your fear goes away, you can move the world.
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01:18:22.460
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.