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Robert Breedlove: Philosophy of Bitcoin from First Principles | Lex Fridman Podcast #176


small model | large model

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The following is a conversation with Robert Breedlove,
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someone who caught my attention
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and was recommended highly as a rigorous scholar
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and thinker in the space of decentralized finance
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and Bitcoin.
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His podcast titled What is Money?
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is a good representation of the way his mind works.
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He's willing to talk through ideas for many hours,
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willing to listen, willing to think,
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which makes him a great companion in conversation
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to explore the history, philosophy, and future of money.
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Quick mention of our sponsors,
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Fundrise, Element, MonkPak, and BetterHelp.
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Check them out in the description to support this podcast.
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As a side note, let me say that I'll have
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a number of conversations in the coming months
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on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
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None of these conversations are financial advice.
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That's not a legal warning, that's a genuine description
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of my goals and approach with these chats.
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At least for a while, I personally won't actively invest
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in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies,
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except to learn about the technology itself.
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I don't think this should be a journalistic standard
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like the New York Times trying to establish,
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which I very much disagree with.
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In my humble opinion, I think journalists should be free
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to invest in Bitcoin if they want to.
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Luckily, I'm not a journalist.
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I just know my own psychology and I feel that my thinking
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will be muddled by excitement
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if I invest before I understand.
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I feel the same way about Tesla, for example.
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I still don't own any Tesla stock
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and I am still indeed fascinated by Tesla Autopilot
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as an artificial intelligence system.
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I work hard to be cognizant of the biases
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that arise in my mind and always try to choose the path
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that maximizes or maintains a freedom of thought
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as much as possible.
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Also, let me say that I try to be very careful
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in selecting guests based not only on the contents
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of their ideas, but the richness, complexity, music,
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style of their mind and character.
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Yes, I will talk with people with whom you
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and I may disagree, people who some may call bad
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or even evil human beings.
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I want to understand them because I believe that,
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as Solzhenitsyn said, the battle line between good and evil
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runs through the heart of every man.
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I think if you always run from evil,
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you become blind to the truth of human nature.
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This is the Lex Friedman Podcast
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and here is my conversation with Robert Breedlove.
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Rousseau opens his 1762 book, The Social Contract,
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with the following statement.
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"'Man is born free and everywhere he is in chains.'"
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So you talk about freedom and sovereignty quite a bit.
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What do these ideas mean to you, the idea of sovereignty?
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Freedom and sovereignty, I think they're very
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closely related.
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Let's start just focusing on sovereignty,
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which is a word I don't think we talk about enough.
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And the general definition of that I would give
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is the authority to act as you see fit.
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And it's a word that's etymologically associated
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with words like monarchy, money, reign.
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So historically, it's referred to whatever the locus
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of supreme power is in the sphere of human action.
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So whether, if you go like back into ancient Egypt,
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the Pharaoh had absolute sovereignty
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and everyone else was pretty much operating
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according to his interests.
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You fast forward to today, modern Western democracy,
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we have more decentralized sovereignty
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and that we all get to go vote and elect officials
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that make decisions on our behalf.
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So the theme of sovereignty across history
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is that it's been gradually decentralizing
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across our different models of socioeconomics.
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And it's largely, you could say it's rooted heavily
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in the money, I would argue,
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which is something we'll get a lot into here,
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where if you have money, you have the authority
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to act as you see fit in the world.
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And even in our current political sphere,
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if you have enough money, you can actually reshape the rules.
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You can reshape laws, you can lobby Congress.
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If you're in a certain situation, like many billionaires,
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you can negotiate your own tax treaty
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such that you can get favorable tax treatment
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with certain jurisdictions in the world.
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So this concept of sovereignty, which today we call,
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it's common to call states or nation states
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or government sovereign,
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meaning that they have power over people.
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But as I argue in a lot of my writing,
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I actually think that sovereignty
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and here's within the individual
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and that we each have our own interiorized space of choice,
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which is something like Victor Frankl
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called the final human freedom.
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And that we, no matter what our circumstances are,
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no matter what exogenous situation we face,
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we always have this endogenous power
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to choose how we respond to it.
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That's one of my favorite books is,
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A Man's Search for Meaning.
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Maybe we can break that apart a little bit.
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So you've kind of spoken about sovereignty
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as a closely linked to power,
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but is there something about your own mind
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being able to achieve sovereignty
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no matter what the monetary system is,
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no matter what, who has the control over centralized power,
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the money or whatever the mechanisms of sovereignty
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and the societal level?
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You as an individual, isn't ultimately all boiled down
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to what you can do with your mind, how you see the world?
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How you interpret it.
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Yeah, I agree.
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And as we get a little bit deeper into this,
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I think we'll come to see money
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as an extension of your mind.
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So there's a feedback between money and mind.
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For instance, you think in dollars today,
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almost guarantee it, most of us do here in the US.
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And it's a tool, right?
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It's a tool we're using to decomplexify the world around us,
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to deal with it, to understand the sacrifices and successes
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across an entire history of economic transactions.
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We can boil that all down to the price.
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So it's data compression.
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And if you can change,
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if there's a central body or central governance mechanism
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that can manipulate that money,
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it can have an impact on your mind.
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For instance, today, so I agree with you on the first hand,
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say that I do believe in free will.
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I do believe in individual autonomy,
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but I also think that there are certain devices and powers
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in the world around us
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that can actually influence how we think.
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And it's fascinating to think about the fact
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that money might be actually deeply integrated
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into the way we think and into our mind.
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You think about what are the core aspects of the human mind?
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What influences cognition,
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the way you reason about the world?
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You have the Chomsky languages at the core of everything,
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but you're kind of placing money as pretty close
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to the core of what it means
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to be an intelligent reasoning human.
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I think money is a direct derivation
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of action and speech, actually.
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It's another expression of the logos.
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If we even think of what it means to think
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is that we are generating two different courses of action,
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potential courses of action,
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and we're populating them with avatars, right?
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Maybe ourselves or others.
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And then we're comparing how we may act in each situation
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and what we think the result would be.
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So actually it's comparison.
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Basically it's comparison and contrasting
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of possible courses of action.
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And that's the same thing with words themselves.
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Most words, the vast majority of words
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only have meaning in relationship to other words, right?
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It's all contextual definitions of a word or more words.
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Now people have argued with me about this
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because there is a first word, right?
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Where you pick up rock and say rock.
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But most other words in higher abstraction
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tend to be relative.
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And what's funny about action and speech,
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and this gets, I got into a bit of this in our paper here,
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is that it's linked to evolutionary biology
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and that once human beings adopted upright stance,
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we freed our hands.
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We no longer needed our hands for locomotion.
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So we started to evolve more dexterity
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and notably we have opposable thumbs.
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So this gives us an ability to manipulate
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and particularize the environment
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in a way that most other animals cannot.
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And what's interesting about this is that
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as we gain this ability to manipulate natural resources
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and count, point, pointing was a big deal
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and that we could indicate prey
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or items that are far off distance
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and we could organize ourselves.
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At the same time we co evolved this fine musculature
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in the face and tongue.
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So it's as if speech developed,
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co evolved really with our dexterity.
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And as a natural extension of that came us making tools.
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Right, we started to create things
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to better satisfy our wants over time.
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And the most tradable tool in any society
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or the most tradable thing is money.
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So I really, I argue that action and speech
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are quintessential modes of self sovereign expression.
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And the money is just sort of a tech layer
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we've put right on top of that.
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And that it's a natural derivation of action and speech.
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Okay, that's fascinating to think about sovereignty
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from the evolutionary perspective.
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And then ultimately money is the technology layer
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that enables sovereignty.
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So, you know, it's really fascinating to think about
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our modern human society as deeply rooted
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in these like evolutionary roots
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from the very origins of life on earth.
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So what, you know, some of the ideas you just mentioned,
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what do you see are some interesting characteristics
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of just life on earth that propagated to us humans?
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Like what ideas propagated through,
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have roots in the evolution?
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Yeah, I think one of the deepest impulsions in life
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is the territorial imperative.
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So all life is seeking to expand its dominion
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over space and time.
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And we think about, you know, again, physically with space,
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it's advantageous to an animal or an organism
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to have more territory under its control
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to raise offspring.
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So it's all about reproductive fitness
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at the end of the day.
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And then we'd also think of reproduction itself
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as the genetic impulse to have more,
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to replicate oneself across time.
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So it's territoriality across time in a way.
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And this is very common in most animals.
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Not all animals are territorial, but many are.
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And you see very interesting behaviors
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resulting from territoriality.
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This is like animal combat.
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You know, the reason birds sing is territoriality,
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a number of other things.
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And it's my hypothesis and others have shared
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this hypothesis as well, that mankind is clearly,
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I think, would argue a territorial species
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and that he expresses this territoriality in property rights.
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So property, when we hear that word,
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we typically think of an asset.
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We think of, oh, this house or this stock or whatever.
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But property is actually the socially acknowledged
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relationship between a human and an asset,
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such that you have exclusive rights and responsibilities
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to a particular asset.
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It is not the asset itself.
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So property, it's information, it's a relationship.
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By the way, my mind was just blown.
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Property is information, it's not the actual asset.
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That's really important.
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Very important.
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That's really interesting.
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Yeah, and then it comes down to how do we organize ourselves
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such that property, that the contributions people are making
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are commensurate with the consideration they're receiving.
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So if you're adding value to a piece of property,
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you're developing a piece of land for use,
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in theory, to be fair, you should have the rights
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to that fruit if you go out and plant a garden
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or whatever it may be.
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And this is rooted in natural law,
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where we have rights to life, liberty, and property.
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Those are kind of just the base,
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the fundamental layer of morality and capitalism, frankly.
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And you could think of, to get really primordial with it,
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the first capitalist in the world,
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just to kind of get some definitions out here,
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I'll say capitalism versus communism or socialism
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as the spectrum I'll speak on.
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The first capitalist in the world would be the guy,
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the caveman, that maybe dug a little hole for himself
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to shield himself from the elements.
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Maybe there was a rainstorm or a snowstorm
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and he dug a little enclave and he protected himself.
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I thought you were gonna go, because you said primordial,
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I thought you were gonna go back to like
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earlier biological systems.
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I guess primordial for human, perhaps.
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For humans, yeah.
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Okay.
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And then the first communist or socialist
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would be someone that decided the fruits of his labor
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belonged to him.
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So he would have violently encroached on that individual
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and taken his plot for himself, for his own use.
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And that's the spectrum across which capitalism,
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in the pure sense, and communism in the pure sense operate
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in that capitalism, each individual has the exclusive rights
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to the fruits of their labor.
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So anything they spend their time, effort, energy
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creating in the world, they own the rights to that
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and they can trade those rights with others,
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other self owned people that have done similar things.
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Communism or socialism would imply that other people,
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typically the state, have the rights,
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at least some rights to the value you've created.
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So there's this interesting moment when that first caveman,
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that first capitalist drew a line, a circle in this cave
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and said, you know, this is mine.
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You could say it was free to be claimed
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at the time he claimed it.
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But it's an interesting moment when asset becomes an asset.
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When space time, as you were referring to it,
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becomes something that's now can be possessed
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by a human being.
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Is there something special about this moment?
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Because it feels like, first of all,
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in terms of space and time, it feels like there's a lot
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of available space time yet to be claimed.
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So if we just look at like the universe, right?
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We're talking about, there's a funny thing
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with Elon Musk and Mars, I think they sneaked in there
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for SpaceX, that nobody on earth has any authority
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on Mars or any, this is a very interesting question.
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It seems almost like humorous at this time,
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but perhaps not, perhaps there'll be sections of space,
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not just on planets that are gonna be even fought over.
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So is there something special about this moment?
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Because in discussing sort of violence
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and respect for property, it feels like this is
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a special moment because ultimately conflict arises
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when you make claims on a particular territory.
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It's not always in conflict where people say,
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when you look at Hitler or something, for example,
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his claim would be in many of the lands that he attacked
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and invaded that this is ultimately,
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this has always belonged to Germany.
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So is there something you could say as to like
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what it means to own an asset or a property?
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Yeah, so in the ancient days of hunters and gatherers,
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we could say that property was mostly a loyal title,
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which meant it's just whatever you can defend, right?
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So if you've got knives and daggers and satchels
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00:16:25.600
and maybe some pelts you've hunted,
link |
00:16:28.760
whatever you can hold and defend is yours.
link |
00:16:32.160
And there's not like, there's a government to appeal to,
link |
00:16:35.320
you're just sort of a free agent operating in the wild,
link |
00:16:39.120
defending the assets you can protect on you more or less.
link |
00:16:44.440
And what really changed the nature of property
link |
00:16:48.360
is when we get into the agricultural age.
link |
00:16:50.780
So there's a big flip where we went from just foraging
link |
00:16:55.240
and hunting all the time, constantly moving,
link |
00:16:57.320
trying to stay alive to deciding we're gonna settle here.
link |
00:17:00.440
We figured out how to cultivate crops.
link |
00:17:03.200
We can create, we can increase the population
link |
00:17:06.080
because we can harvest more energy from the sun
link |
00:17:08.480
and we can establish a longer term civilization.
link |
00:17:11.280
What happens in that transition
link |
00:17:13.600
is that we begin creating economic surplus.
link |
00:17:16.480
So for the first time in history,
link |
00:17:17.680
we have stock houses of grain to defend
link |
00:17:22.040
or maybe meat or cattle or whatever it is we're creating,
link |
00:17:25.260
we now have savings.
link |
00:17:27.960
And it's at that time when government emerges as well,
link |
00:17:33.420
because once you have savings
link |
00:17:35.120
or you have an economic surplus,
link |
00:17:36.320
you have something that other people want to steal, right?
link |
00:17:39.000
This one thing we'll touch on a lot today
link |
00:17:41.760
is people always want something for nothing.
link |
00:17:45.880
People are always seeking the path
link |
00:17:47.440
to get something for nothing.
link |
00:17:48.360
And I think that drives a lot of our decision making.
link |
00:17:51.600
And it actually encourages us to be innovative
link |
00:17:53.680
in a lot of ways, right?
link |
00:17:54.520
We're trying to, you could say it's our laziness
link |
00:17:58.060
that's helping us be inventive in a way.
link |
00:17:59.760
We're trying to accomplish greater results
link |
00:18:01.420
with less efforts over time,
link |
00:18:02.940
but we can cross that line in seeking something for nothing
link |
00:18:07.440
where we start to violate the life, liberty,
link |
00:18:09.240
and property of others.
link |
00:18:10.320
And that's where we shift from kind of capitalistic society
link |
00:18:13.160
to something more communistic.
link |
00:18:15.560
And so that's what government is.
link |
00:18:18.840
It's a protection producing enterprise
link |
00:18:21.680
for the economic surplus generated by a trading society.
link |
00:18:25.860
So when people begin to trade,
link |
00:18:28.460
they create what's called the division of labor,
link |
00:18:30.920
which is a very common economic term,
link |
00:18:33.020
basically means you're better at making hats,
link |
00:18:35.440
I'm better at making boots.
link |
00:18:37.440
If you specialize in hats, I specialize in boots,
link |
00:18:39.840
and we trade, we've created a positive sum game
link |
00:18:42.600
where you and I both benefit.
link |
00:18:43.840
So we become collectively more than the sum of our parts
link |
00:18:47.000
through trade.
link |
00:18:48.320
And that's why human beings do trade
link |
00:18:51.360
because we become more energy efficient as a result.
link |
00:18:54.040
We create more outputs per unit of input.
link |
00:18:56.560
And you can think of government in that respect,
link |
00:18:59.280
if we're looking at it maybe in a tech sense
link |
00:19:01.240
that the economy is the trade network that generates wealth,
link |
00:19:05.220
generates innovation, generates all,
link |
00:19:07.160
this whole lap of luxury we live in today
link |
00:19:09.120
that we've inherited from our forebears is from the market.
link |
00:19:12.680
It's not from a government.
link |
00:19:14.120
The government is the network security, if you will.
link |
00:19:17.500
So we're paying expenses to a vendor to protect peace,
link |
00:19:21.880
to preserve life, liberty, and property in that network
link |
00:19:24.480
so that we can have, you know,
link |
00:19:25.760
when there's inevitably disputes over private property,
link |
00:19:28.100
we can have nonviolent dispute resolution
link |
00:19:30.720
in the rule of law.
link |
00:19:33.280
And we can have a reasonable expectation
link |
00:19:36.040
of being able to conduct commerce without violence.
link |
00:19:39.440
The problem has been that the protector tends to,
link |
00:19:43.680
you know, they're in a monopolistic position, we would say.
link |
00:19:46.080
They tend to start abusing that position
link |
00:19:49.260
to obtain property for themselves.
link |
00:19:53.040
Again, trying to get that something for nothing.
link |
00:19:55.840
When you control, you know, you are the security guard
link |
00:20:00.320
for the economy.
link |
00:20:02.200
The first thing they tend to monopolize is money
link |
00:20:04.680
because if you can control the money,
link |
00:20:05.840
you're effectively controlling people, their energy,
link |
00:20:08.060
their perceptions.
link |
00:20:10.560
And that becomes a, you know,
link |
00:20:12.360
particularly through inflation,
link |
00:20:14.560
becomes an avenue to get something for nothing
link |
00:20:17.520
and that you can just print more money
link |
00:20:20.000
that everyone else is forced to sacrifice their time
link |
00:20:22.840
and energy to obtain.
link |
00:20:24.100
What are your thoughts about anarchism?
link |
00:20:27.580
So I talk quite a bit, he'll be here in a few days,
link |
00:20:30.940
actually, Michael Malice, about ideas of anarchy.
link |
00:20:35.420
And his idea or the idea of anarchists
link |
00:20:38.100
is that any amount of government will eventually become
link |
00:20:42.100
the very kind of thing that you're referring to.
link |
00:20:45.660
So there's almost no way to have a government
link |
00:20:48.460
that doesn't then try to monopolize power,
link |
00:20:52.180
money, and all those kinds of things.
link |
00:20:54.360
Do you think it's possible to have a government
link |
00:20:56.900
sort of on that spectrum of like anarchy,
link |
00:20:59.760
maybe libertarianism,
link |
00:21:02.020
I'm not sure how exactly the spectrum goes,
link |
00:21:04.620
but where you have a small government
link |
00:21:07.160
that protects the liberty and property rights
link |
00:21:09.060
and those kinds of things and doesn't expand
link |
00:21:11.940
to then also control the monetary system
link |
00:21:15.420
and all those other things?
link |
00:21:17.620
Is it possible?
link |
00:21:18.500
Agreed completely, it was not possible until Satoshi Nakamoto.
link |
00:21:24.120
So for the first time in history,
link |
00:21:25.620
we have a money that cannot be monopolized,
link |
00:21:29.180
cannot be corrupted, cannot be changed,
link |
00:21:32.920
cannot be weaponized, frankly.
link |
00:21:34.460
Our current monetary system is weaponized
link |
00:21:36.680
by those who can print money against those who cannot.
link |
00:21:41.660
And I think when you have,
link |
00:21:45.060
at the heart of every modern economy,
link |
00:21:46.880
which even we could say the US,
link |
00:21:48.620
we pride ourselves as free market capitalists.
link |
00:21:51.460
You know, we out competed communism in the 20th century.
link |
00:21:54.320
We think that this is the superior model.
link |
00:21:58.080
Most business people will tell you
link |
00:22:00.540
that the free market is the best allocator of resources,
link |
00:22:03.780
all of these things.
link |
00:22:05.300
But what we have at the heart of every modern economy,
link |
00:22:07.500
including the US, is an anti capitalistic institution,
link |
00:22:10.740
which is the central bank.
link |
00:22:13.560
The temptation to monopolize money
link |
00:22:15.460
throughout all of history has been too strong
link |
00:22:17.100
for anyone to resist.
link |
00:22:18.680
So any, even benevolent, quote unquote,
link |
00:22:21.540
dictators that have taken over,
link |
00:22:23.400
many dictators have inherited, say,
link |
00:22:25.300
an inflationary regime where society is coming apart
link |
00:22:28.260
because someone was clipping the coins
link |
00:22:29.580
or someone was printing too much money,
link |
00:22:31.260
and they'll commit to going back to a hard money standard.
link |
00:22:34.140
So they'll keep society on a gold standard, for instance,
link |
00:22:37.840
such that they cannot violate the money
link |
00:22:40.860
to benefit themselves.
link |
00:22:42.140
But inevitably, over time, because it is
link |
00:22:45.820
a political institution, there's an incentive there, right?
link |
00:22:50.660
For, again, to get something for nothing,
link |
00:22:53.140
to spend more than you're making through tax revenues.
link |
00:22:57.260
And with that incentive, people typically,
link |
00:22:59.700
ultimately end up pursuing that inflationary path.
link |
00:23:03.400
So we can get deeper into that about,
link |
00:23:06.680
inflation is a term that we've been conditioned
link |
00:23:09.400
to think today is just something normal.
link |
00:23:10.940
The prices just go up, and then it's pertinent
link |
00:23:14.780
to a healthy economy, but it's actually,
link |
00:23:18.820
if you look at it from real first principles,
link |
00:23:20.300
it is just theft integrated into the money.
link |
00:23:22.540
It's a technology backdoor,
link |
00:23:23.980
is another way to think about it.
link |
00:23:25.420
You wouldn't buy a cell phone knowing
link |
00:23:27.500
that someone could siphon your data off your private calls
link |
00:23:30.420
and sell it into the market.
link |
00:23:31.980
Now, I know we do that with a lot of social media stuff
link |
00:23:33.700
today, and that's something else we can get into,
link |
00:23:35.180
but you wouldn't do it willingly, right?
link |
00:23:37.580
You prefer that your cell phone and your data
link |
00:23:40.280
was monetized by you, or if you're gonna sell it,
link |
00:23:43.140
you would be able to selectively sell it.
link |
00:23:45.420
Inflation is that it's similar, it's a tech backdoor.
link |
00:23:49.100
So it's a money that only a few people
link |
00:23:53.500
can siphon value off of surreptitiously, typically slowly,
link |
00:23:58.340
but eventually, as we've seen throughout history,
link |
00:24:00.080
that slowly builds up into a rapidly
link |
00:24:02.580
and then causes the monetary system to collapse.
link |
00:24:05.820
Do you think there's a benefit to inflation, possibly?
link |
00:24:08.400
So when you have perfect information,
link |
00:24:12.420
perhaps you don't need inflation,
link |
00:24:14.260
perhaps it is purely theft, but I think of inflation
link |
00:24:17.220
as like the snooze button on the alarm.
link |
00:24:21.860
So if you have a hard standard,
link |
00:24:23.460
you better wake up when the alarm rings,
link |
00:24:25.820
but all of us kind of like probably shouldn't,
link |
00:24:29.340
but use the snooze button.
link |
00:24:30.700
It's like, okay, well, five more minutes
link |
00:24:32.220
or 10 more minutes, and then you're saying
link |
00:24:34.860
there's naturally a slippery slope
link |
00:24:36.980
where it becomes a drug that you fall in love with
link |
00:24:40.140
and you abuse, but nevertheless,
link |
00:24:43.980
the usefulness of the snooze button
link |
00:24:46.260
is that you don't know how you'll be actually feeling
link |
00:24:48.860
when the alarm rings.
link |
00:24:50.300
You might be able to ready to pop up.
link |
00:24:52.220
It might be like you really need those few more minutes
link |
00:24:55.420
to psychologically get yourself out of bed.
link |
00:24:57.540
This metaphor is just not working at all,
link |
00:24:59.820
but do you think there's a use to inflation sometimes
link |
00:25:04.820
from like an economics perspective?
link |
00:25:06.900
I think the drug metaphor is a little more apt
link |
00:25:09.620
in that inflation does provide
link |
00:25:12.260
an immediately stimulative effect when used early on.
link |
00:25:19.620
But what it's doing is it's, again,
link |
00:25:22.980
we talk about the balance between incentives
link |
00:25:26.140
and disincentives, right?
link |
00:25:27.340
That being necessary for a system to function properly.
link |
00:25:31.580
With inflation, you're essentially giving the people
link |
00:25:35.620
that can print money a way to dampen
link |
00:25:38.420
the disincentives they face.
link |
00:25:40.780
So it destroys feedback loops, I guess you might say.
link |
00:25:46.580
And another way to look at this is when you,
link |
00:25:49.340
so using inflation, using quantitative easing,
link |
00:25:52.260
you can decrease short term volatility in the marketplace.
link |
00:25:56.880
So the market is basically this idea,
link |
00:26:01.140
this form of free exchange that's trying to zero in
link |
00:26:03.300
on the best ideas.
link |
00:26:04.500
And the ideas are those that are most fit to reality,
link |
00:26:07.020
to satisfying the most wants.
link |
00:26:08.780
It's gonna overshoot, it's gonna undershoot,
link |
00:26:10.380
you have these little business cycles.
link |
00:26:12.020
But when it's undershooting
link |
00:26:13.500
and you're experiencing a business recession,
link |
00:26:18.020
in a capitalist environment,
link |
00:26:19.140
the market needs to clear that malinvestment,
link |
00:26:21.940
that misallocation of capital.
link |
00:26:23.260
That means someone made a bet on a certain idea
link |
00:26:25.420
that it would satisfy wants in a particular way,
link |
00:26:27.820
and that bet did not pan out.
link |
00:26:29.460
If you then paper over the losses
link |
00:26:31.460
that business is creating,
link |
00:26:33.020
you're now delaying and exacerbating the volatility
link |
00:26:36.820
that that idea created.
link |
00:26:39.140
So this is kind of a Tel Aviv concept
link |
00:26:41.400
where you can dampen short run volatility,
link |
00:26:46.060
but volatility is truth.
link |
00:26:48.340
Volatility is us matching our ideas to reality, right?
link |
00:26:53.420
We're constantly, again, overshooting and undershooting.
link |
00:26:55.200
So you delay volatility,
link |
00:26:57.640
you're just amplifying it and exacerbating it
link |
00:26:59.820
in the long run.
link |
00:27:01.180
And that's what central bank is doing.
link |
00:27:02.740
The central bank mandate is low unemployment
link |
00:27:06.860
and low and expected inflation, basically.
link |
00:27:13.300
And so they're trying to achieve economic growth
link |
00:27:16.820
in a stable way, quote unquote, stable way.
link |
00:27:19.500
This is their ostensible purpose.
link |
00:27:22.380
And that's just not possible.
link |
00:27:23.940
Growth is an inherently instable process.
link |
00:27:27.780
Can you elaborate a little bit
link |
00:27:29.420
about the nature of volatility?
link |
00:27:33.380
Why is it communicating truth?
link |
00:27:37.140
That's something that a lot of people are afraid of
link |
00:27:39.060
is the volatility.
link |
00:27:40.340
Almost like it's a sign of chaos,
link |
00:27:44.260
and so they want to escape chaos.
link |
00:27:48.220
But you're saying that that's actually,
link |
00:27:51.740
whether it's chaos or not, I don't know,
link |
00:27:53.640
but it's getting us closer to the fundamental reality
link |
00:27:57.600
that we should not be trying to escape.
link |
00:28:00.100
Yeah, so if we consider that the universe
link |
00:28:04.980
is pervaded by entropy, right?
link |
00:28:06.980
This is the second law of thermodynamics
link |
00:28:08.780
is that every closed system
link |
00:28:10.080
tends towards greater disorder over time.
link |
00:28:13.500
And that life itself, again,
link |
00:28:15.420
I would argue expressed through the logos,
link |
00:28:19.080
we, life, is the antientropic principle.
link |
00:28:22.180
It's the only thing that's converting entropy into order,
link |
00:28:24.740
chaos into order.
link |
00:28:26.500
And that's what entrepreneurs are doing, right?
link |
00:28:29.980
We're living at the edges of the known,
link |
00:28:32.700
and we're testing ourself against the entropy of nature,
link |
00:28:37.240
trying to figure out new and better ways
link |
00:28:38.900
of saying, doing, or making things.
link |
00:28:41.020
And then if we do crack a code or figure something out,
link |
00:28:44.260
we then have a big incentive.
link |
00:28:45.700
The incentive is to get rich, right?
link |
00:28:47.180
Because then you have a new idea
link |
00:28:48.380
that you could then sell back into the marketplace.
link |
00:28:50.940
So it's this sequence of courageously confronting
link |
00:28:57.360
the entropy of nature and converting it
link |
00:28:59.500
into good and useful order,
link |
00:29:00.820
which by the way is like the ancient idea of God in Genesis,
link |
00:29:04.100
which I think is interesting,
link |
00:29:06.900
that actually enables us to construct civilization
link |
00:29:10.120
in these layers of anti entropy or order, you might say.
link |
00:29:14.900
So today we live in a bubble of anti entropy or order,
link |
00:29:19.900
like the coastlines are guarded by the nation
link |
00:29:22.300
and the city has a certain police force
link |
00:29:25.340
that keeps it in order.
link |
00:29:27.940
Even the way we talk,
link |
00:29:30.260
like clearly the words matter,
link |
00:29:31.780
but also the nonverbal cues,
link |
00:29:33.060
all these things are like order that has been established
link |
00:29:35.340
over many, many, many thousands of years of human evolution.
link |
00:29:40.660
And I think that's, when I say volatility is truth,
link |
00:29:46.180
what I'm saying is that the experience of uncertainty
link |
00:29:49.340
is something that's ineradicable from life, right?
link |
00:29:53.580
And certainty, like it's kind of a paradox
link |
00:29:57.060
because we're fighting against it, right?
link |
00:29:58.980
We're trying to innovate our way away from uncertainty
link |
00:30:01.460
to create more capital,
link |
00:30:03.640
which capital is very simply a way of mitigating uncertainty.
link |
00:30:09.540
So this is why you might have like a stash of food
link |
00:30:12.340
in case the power goes out or a generator,
link |
00:30:14.620
like it helps you overcome uncertainty over time.
link |
00:30:17.780
But uncertainty is also where all the sweetness of life is.
link |
00:30:21.420
So there's gotta be this balance
link |
00:30:22.660
with one foot in, one foot out.
link |
00:30:25.300
So human society is this kind of bubble of order
link |
00:30:27.500
that we've constructed and slowly expanding,
link |
00:30:30.460
but at the edges, you're always going to have that chaos,
link |
00:30:33.180
that volatility, and that the entrepreneurs
link |
00:30:36.180
are kind of like jumping into that chaos
link |
00:30:39.460
and some of them die and some of them succeed.
link |
00:30:42.000
And so like, if you wanna grow this bubble of order,
link |
00:30:46.380
you have to be embracing the volatility at the edges.
link |
00:30:51.380
Yes.
link |
00:30:53.400
And reverence for entrepreneurship
link |
00:30:55.100
because these are the people putting their neck out,
link |
00:30:58.940
so to speak, risking themselves.
link |
00:31:01.260
And they're gonna contribute to society, by the way,
link |
00:31:03.220
whether they go up in flames or not.
link |
00:31:05.100
If they go up in flames,
link |
00:31:06.340
society has witnessed their experience
link |
00:31:08.560
as something not to do or something that doesn't work
link |
00:31:10.660
in a particular time and place.
link |
00:31:12.380
So that you could say them going up in flames
link |
00:31:14.780
is a way of enlightening the rest of us.
link |
00:31:16.780
Or if they figure something out,
link |
00:31:18.980
Steve Jobs creates the iPhone, changes the world forever.
link |
00:31:22.780
So enlightening the rest of us, okay.
link |
00:31:25.780
And Taleb would say.
link |
00:31:26.900
The fire of their failure, okay.
link |
00:31:28.580
Yeah, exactly.
link |
00:31:30.020
Taleb would say individual fragility
link |
00:31:35.020
is inseparable from ensemble anti fragility.
link |
00:31:38.580
So this means that, again,
link |
00:31:40.620
every time that entrepreneur goes up in flames
link |
00:31:42.760
or say a restaurant goes out of business,
link |
00:31:46.020
when a restaurant goes out of business,
link |
00:31:47.380
that particular cuisine strategy they were implementing
link |
00:31:50.220
in that particular time and place,
link |
00:31:51.580
that's a signal to all the other restaurants in the area
link |
00:31:53.500
that that doesn't work.
link |
00:31:54.900
So restaurant food improves from bankruptcy to bankruptcy.
link |
00:31:59.660
So it's this death of the individual components
link |
00:32:02.420
that contributes to the growth of the ensemble.
link |
00:32:05.460
As a small aside, maybe you can guide me through it.
link |
00:32:07.860
I don't know if you're paying attention,
link |
00:32:09.300
but there was some chaos around Taleb
link |
00:32:13.780
and the Bitcoin community.
link |
00:32:15.580
I wasn't quite paying attention,
link |
00:32:17.960
but from my outsider's perspective,
link |
00:32:20.220
I thought it seemed Taleb was a supporter of Bitcoin.
link |
00:32:24.500
And then a lot of people were very upset about something.
link |
00:32:26.900
I'm sorry if I don't know the details,
link |
00:32:28.260
but can you pull out some profound philosophical ideas
link |
00:32:33.020
from the disagreement of the chaos?
link |
00:32:34.860
I admittedly don't know too much about it either.
link |
00:32:37.940
I'm a big fan of his writing.
link |
00:32:41.300
He's always been a little different in person.
link |
00:32:45.780
Like I actually, he signed one of my books.
link |
00:32:47.500
I met him in person.
link |
00:32:48.340
He's just, he's got a very abrasive personality.
link |
00:32:50.660
He's kind of known for it.
link |
00:32:51.580
It's not, I don't think I'm passing any judgment here.
link |
00:32:54.140
He sort of embraces it.
link |
00:32:55.540
Yeah.
link |
00:32:56.380
But he had written the forward
link |
00:32:58.980
to a really important book in Bitcoin
link |
00:33:00.680
called the Bitcoin Standard for safety in a moose.
link |
00:33:03.800
And then I think they had a little Twitter beef
link |
00:33:06.900
because safety is very much against COVID mask
link |
00:33:10.880
and state intervention,
link |
00:33:12.700
whereas Taleb's on the other side of the fence.
link |
00:33:15.340
And so, and then after that beef,
link |
00:33:17.900
Taleb came out against Bitcoiners saying,
link |
00:33:19.580
oh, Bitcoiners are crazy and wrong.
link |
00:33:21.840
I think the great mask debate of the 2020
link |
00:33:24.700
will probably be the thing
link |
00:33:25.820
that ultimately leads to World War III.
link |
00:33:28.380
I've been very surprised how tense, how much like division
link |
00:33:33.380
this one little arguably silly thing has led to.
link |
00:33:39.140
I think a lot of people sort of project their,
link |
00:33:41.580
like, it's almost like not wearing a mask
link |
00:33:44.020
is a statement of sovereignty, of freedom,
link |
00:33:46.500
of like saying fuck you to the man,
link |
00:33:48.860
the government, the centralized power,
link |
00:33:50.900
or the dishonesty or the, in the scientific community,
link |
00:33:55.180
all those kinds of things.
link |
00:33:56.260
And then wearing a mask is a sort of kind of signaling
link |
00:33:59.520
of various kind of social aspects.
link |
00:34:03.600
I don't know.
link |
00:34:04.440
I'm not paying attention to it.
link |
00:34:05.500
I actually tuned out.
link |
00:34:06.820
I was part of a group of scientists
link |
00:34:08.480
that were looking into like, do masks work?
link |
00:34:10.580
This very interesting question.
link |
00:34:11.980
To me, it was an interesting question.
link |
00:34:13.880
I sort of roll in to ask that very interesting question
link |
00:34:17.580
because I think it is an interesting scientific question.
link |
00:34:20.500
But then I quickly realized that just as I was doing this,
link |
00:34:23.820
like scientific exploration of this very interesting question
link |
00:34:27.560
about Viron particles, like what kind of things,
link |
00:34:30.300
like from a scientific perspective,
link |
00:34:32.300
how do we prevent the spread of a pandemic?
link |
00:34:34.400
Forget COVID, any pandemic, super deadly or not deadly.
link |
00:34:38.020
Like there's tools, there's testing, there's masks,
link |
00:34:40.660
there's all these tools, how well do they work?
link |
00:34:43.220
And then I realized, you know, in April or so,
link |
00:34:46.740
it became a tool of politics, a tool of philosophy.
link |
00:34:49.980
And that's when I sort of pulled out.
link |
00:34:51.900
So it's fascinating.
link |
00:34:52.740
I think it's a canvas on which people project
link |
00:34:56.740
their emotions and I guess Tillam got caught up
link |
00:34:59.900
in that kind of, so there's nothing fundamental,
link |
00:35:02.480
I suppose, to their disagreement.
link |
00:35:04.540
Not that I'm aware of, but he is, you know,
link |
00:35:07.880
he's written some about in his books,
link |
00:35:11.340
the problem with centralization.
link |
00:35:13.220
I mean, a lot of his writing addresses that
link |
00:35:15.860
and he actually points to, I think Switzerland
link |
00:35:18.620
is the best government in the world
link |
00:35:20.300
because it's decentralized.
link |
00:35:21.700
So there's that, I don't think he has any,
link |
00:35:26.900
I'm not to speak for him, but I don't think he's voiced
link |
00:35:30.700
any specific critiques on Bitcoin per se.
link |
00:35:34.640
Could be wrong about that.
link |
00:35:35.740
It's just maybe his flavorful language
link |
00:35:37.820
and the way he likes to communicate.
link |
00:35:39.580
And the other theory is that maybe he's playing 4D chess
link |
00:35:42.300
and having a Twitter boating accident, you know.
link |
00:35:44.580
So I don't believe in Bitcoin, I've sold all my Bitcoin.
link |
00:35:48.140
Oh, I see.
link |
00:35:48.980
Yeah.
link |
00:35:49.820
Sorry, the boating accident in Bitcoin is this,
link |
00:35:55.020
I guess it's proverbial by this point,
link |
00:35:56.740
where it's the way you lose your Bitcoin.
link |
00:35:59.360
So if someone comes after you and says,
link |
00:36:00.880
hey, you know, whether it's a government
link |
00:36:02.880
or an individual's coming after you saying,
link |
00:36:04.200
give me all your Bitcoin or pay these taxes in Bitcoin,
link |
00:36:06.780
you go, oh, I had a boating accident and lost them all.
link |
00:36:09.060
Lost them all.
link |
00:36:09.900
So, yeah.
link |
00:36:13.380
But back to the fundamental nature of space time.
link |
00:36:16.500
Let me ask you, because we're kind of left at,
link |
00:36:20.180
I'd like to go back to this idea of,
link |
00:36:24.160
that you said that everything we think, say,
link |
00:36:26.520
or do occurs within the bounds of space time.
link |
00:36:31.180
So first of all, maybe you can comment on
link |
00:36:33.580
what do you mean in this context about space time,
link |
00:36:37.140
but also about the nature of truth.
link |
00:36:40.660
Like how much of all of this is knowable?
link |
00:36:43.480
How much of this is accessible to us humans?
link |
00:36:46.400
How much uncertainty, like what we're talking about,
link |
00:36:49.180
is there in the world?
link |
00:36:50.720
Are you, do you fall in a place
link |
00:36:52.300
where we can reason deeply about this world
link |
00:36:56.060
and it's knowable, or is it mostly chaos
link |
00:36:58.540
and we're just holding on for dear life?
link |
00:37:01.380
Yeah, I think I said that all action occurs
link |
00:37:04.220
within the bounds of space time.
link |
00:37:05.560
The other thing, everything we say, do, or make,
link |
00:37:08.200
the other thing is that everything we say, do, or make
link |
00:37:10.380
starts out as an idea.
link |
00:37:12.460
So there's this concept of universal Darwinism,
link |
00:37:15.520
which basically applies Darwinian principles,
link |
00:37:20.060
but outside of the biological sphere.
link |
00:37:21.980
So we could say that this kind of gets into
link |
00:37:23.820
Richard Dawkins memetics, that even ideas are competing,
link |
00:37:27.220
reproducing, recombining.
link |
00:37:29.180
That idea is so powerful, by the way.
link |
00:37:30.860
I don't think it's been understood fully.
link |
00:37:33.900
I think in the digital, in the 21st century,
link |
00:37:38.940
in the digital world, from my perspective
link |
00:37:40.580
in artificial intelligence,
link |
00:37:42.540
there's yet to be some profound things
link |
00:37:44.500
to be discovered about this whole construct.
link |
00:37:47.220
Agreed completely.
link |
00:37:48.860
It's been called an acid, actually,
link |
00:37:51.540
in that it strips away all of the noninformational
link |
00:37:55.580
components of something, just strips it down
link |
00:37:57.140
to its bare bones.
link |
00:37:59.140
I have a quote in here somewhere about that, but.
link |
00:38:02.140
I'm sorry, which is called an acid?
link |
00:38:03.500
The ideas?
link |
00:38:04.340
The universal Darwinism.
link |
00:38:05.860
Darwinism applied broadly, outside of the.
link |
00:38:08.100
Applied broadly, and I'll condition all of this
link |
00:38:12.740
by saying that a lot, most of my thinking
link |
00:38:14.540
is shaped by a book I read recently
link |
00:38:16.300
called The Case Against Reality,
link |
00:38:19.340
which introduced me to this concept,
link |
00:38:20.660
but it tied into Darwinism that I've used
link |
00:38:23.380
more broadly in the past, looking at things
link |
00:38:24.760
like money and economics.
link |
00:38:26.340
So the book, The Case Against Reality,
link |
00:38:28.640
by Donald Hoffman, he has a quote in the book
link |
00:38:32.860
that describes universal Darwinism.
link |
00:38:35.740
It says, quote, universal Darwinism can,
link |
00:38:37.640
without risk of refuting itself,
link |
00:38:39.340
address our key question.
link |
00:38:41.500
Does natural selection favor true perceptions?
link |
00:38:44.820
If the answer happens to be no,
link |
00:38:46.780
then it hasn't shot itself in the foot.
link |
00:38:49.160
The uncanny power of universal Darwinism
link |
00:38:51.300
has been likened by the philosopher Dan Dennett
link |
00:38:54.120
to a universal acid.
link |
00:38:56.740
And Dan Dennett says, quote, there is no denying
link |
00:38:58.940
at this point that Darwin's idea is a universal solvent,
link |
00:39:02.380
capable of cutting right to the heart
link |
00:39:04.020
of everything in sight.
link |
00:39:05.720
The question is, what does it leave behind?
link |
00:39:08.500
I have tried to show that once it passes through everything,
link |
00:39:10.860
we are left with stronger, sounder versions
link |
00:39:13.100
of our most important ideas.
link |
00:39:15.740
Some of the traditional details perish,
link |
00:39:17.880
and some of these are losses to be regretted,
link |
00:39:20.380
but good riddance to the rest of them.
link |
00:39:22.220
What remains is more than enough to build on, unquote.
link |
00:39:26.340
So the way I would interpret that is that life itself,
link |
00:39:31.660
I've come to view life as information propagating
link |
00:39:34.620
through flesh, and that we are,
link |
00:39:38.620
I guess DNA is a quadratic code.
link |
00:39:42.820
I think it's four letters, maybe,
link |
00:39:44.220
versus a binary, zeros and ones.
link |
00:39:46.540
And we are ideas, we are strategies competing
link |
00:39:49.620
with each other, and nature is that which selects.
link |
00:39:54.300
It's what selects the winning ideas,
link |
00:39:56.500
the ones that are most fit
link |
00:39:59.100
to environmental conditions, frankly.
link |
00:40:02.400
You know, talking about sovereignty and individualism,
link |
00:40:06.280
there might need to be some rethinking here
link |
00:40:10.680
about what is actually the basic individual entity
link |
00:40:13.940
that is to be sovereign.
link |
00:40:15.600
Like maybe our biological meat vehicles
link |
00:40:20.760
were like way overly attached to them.
link |
00:40:25.220
Like maybe, especially with genetics
link |
00:40:28.040
and all those kinds of things,
link |
00:40:29.000
or artificial intelligence, or living more and more
link |
00:40:31.120
in virtual worlds will become detached
link |
00:40:34.200
from that kind of idea.
link |
00:40:35.860
So for example, if I can clone you,
link |
00:40:38.280
you know, make one million robbers,
link |
00:40:42.280
and, you know, but you'll all have the same idea,
link |
00:40:46.160
what is your real value as the,
link |
00:40:48.880
like I could just shoot you,
link |
00:40:50.000
and there'll still be 999 of you,
link |
00:40:52.840
but the idea is the important thing,
link |
00:40:55.200
the things you believe, so.
link |
00:40:58.260
I would argue that I don't know,
link |
00:41:00.200
even if you clone someone perfectly,
link |
00:41:02.080
I don't think you can reproduce the individual themselves,
link |
00:41:05.500
because we're all a product of nature and nurture, right?
link |
00:41:09.000
So my particular concourse of experiences,
link |
00:41:12.380
the path dependence that I represent cannot be replicated,
link |
00:41:15.800
nor can anyone's for that matter.
link |
00:41:17.560
Well, that's a hypothesis, so.
link |
00:41:20.520
True.
link |
00:41:21.360
That's of course a human meat bag would say.
link |
00:41:27.240
Good point.
link |
00:41:29.640
Like desperate trying to preserve himself.
link |
00:41:31.920
You know, I think it reduces
link |
00:41:33.960
to some fundamental questions about what is consciousness,
link |
00:41:36.440
and whether that can be cloned.
link |
00:41:38.000
All those kind of, you know,
link |
00:41:39.200
it gets to the core of what it is to be human.
link |
00:41:41.880
What are the things that make you particularly you?
link |
00:41:45.160
Yeah, I think it would assume
link |
00:41:46.880
kind of a materialist viewpoint on reality,
link |
00:41:49.200
and that if you could reproduce every atom of an individual
link |
00:41:52.160
that you would have their experience encapsulated in that.
link |
00:41:55.160
And, you know, Hoffman's, which his book is very radical,
link |
00:41:58.620
he argues that space and time is not an objective reality,
link |
00:42:03.620
it's a biological interface.
link |
00:42:06.040
So we are scanning our environment for fitness payoffs,
link |
00:42:11.080
and this space and time is the rendering
link |
00:42:13.520
specific to human beings
link |
00:42:15.040
that allows us to navigate reality effectively.
link |
00:42:18.960
So the further argument would be
link |
00:42:20.840
that we all have pretty similar interfaces,
link |
00:42:23.240
but they're all slightly different too,
link |
00:42:25.000
because we're all, you know, adapting in different ways,
link |
00:42:27.120
and that different animals have their own unique interfaces.
link |
00:42:30.280
So we have a certain amount of photoreceptors in our eye,
link |
00:42:32.780
whereas I think the number is three, might be five,
link |
00:42:35.920
or something like the mantis shrimp has like seven or nine.
link |
00:42:39.320
So they can see,
link |
00:42:40.960
and we only see one 10 trillionth of the light spectrum.
link |
00:42:46.960
So talk about a tiny fraction.
link |
00:42:48.640
I mean, one 10 trillionth is a very minuscule number,
link |
00:42:51.640
and that makes up all of the light
link |
00:42:53.340
that we can interpret with our eyes.
link |
00:42:55.320
But something like a mantis shrimp
link |
00:42:56.480
could see, you know, much more of that.
link |
00:42:58.760
So I think there's this, we're very conditioned
link |
00:43:04.160
to have a fully materialist viewpoint on reality today,
link |
00:43:07.280
where we think, you know,
link |
00:43:10.280
the atomic clockwork kind of universe.
link |
00:43:12.940
But I think there's, I don't think that's true exactly.
link |
00:43:16.460
And another school that goes into that
link |
00:43:19.740
is actually Austrian economics,
link |
00:43:22.000
where we could say that, you know,
link |
00:43:24.640
we mentioned earlier that an asset is not property.
link |
00:43:27.580
It's actually based on the relationship
link |
00:43:29.120
between the individual and the property.
link |
00:43:32.720
There's this whole realm of relevance associated with,
link |
00:43:39.860
we're all moving through life
link |
00:43:41.600
in the course of a goal directed action.
link |
00:43:43.540
So when we walk across a room, I go from A to B,
link |
00:43:47.400
it's because I valued B more than A.
link |
00:43:50.160
So value is inseparable from human action.
link |
00:43:52.920
We have a rank ordered value system in our mind,
link |
00:43:56.160
each of us, and we're constantly taking action
link |
00:43:58.360
in accordance with those rank values.
link |
00:44:01.500
Anything that accelerates us on the course
link |
00:44:04.560
of our goal directed action towards our goal is useful.
link |
00:44:09.520
Anything that impedes us, or we could say is valuable,
link |
00:44:12.720
anything that impedes us is actually obstructing to value.
link |
00:44:16.200
And anything that's irrelevant is just valueless.
link |
00:44:19.160
So this table that we're using right now,
link |
00:44:23.880
like this is an accessory to UNI
link |
00:44:26.360
because it's holding this paper
link |
00:44:27.480
that's holding the information
link |
00:44:28.480
that's guiding our conversation.
link |
00:44:30.320
But we could pay someone $100 to jump over this table.
link |
00:44:34.320
And this table could simultaneously be an accessory to UNI
link |
00:44:37.080
and an obstacle to someone else.
link |
00:44:39.500
So it's this domain, this silent contention of willpower
link |
00:44:43.880
and agendas occurring across the face of the earth
link |
00:44:46.740
that is what Austrian economics really looks at.
link |
00:44:50.040
It's the realm of human action, as they call it.
link |
00:44:54.040
It's called praxeology.
link |
00:44:55.560
So it's a non materialist viewpoint on reality
link |
00:44:58.560
and that things, we think in terms of matter being reality,
link |
00:45:03.200
but it's often more so in the sphere of human action,
link |
00:45:06.160
what matters, that is reality.
link |
00:45:08.620
It's the relevance of a thing
link |
00:45:10.240
to the course of one's goal directed action.
link |
00:45:12.400
And that's ultimately exists in the space of ideas.
link |
00:45:15.960
Yes.
link |
00:45:16.940
Not in the space of physical matter.
link |
00:45:19.040
And just to jump back to this line here,
link |
00:45:20.400
I think his fundamental line here is the question is,
link |
00:45:24.620
talking about universal Darwinism as an asset,
link |
00:45:26.880
what does it leave behind?
link |
00:45:28.360
I've tried to show that once it passes through everything,
link |
00:45:30.760
we're left with stronger, sounder versions
link |
00:45:32.920
of our most useful ideas.
link |
00:45:35.320
That's the key point to me.
link |
00:45:36.520
And that ideas and information, so far as we can tell,
link |
00:45:40.400
are the most fundamental substrate of reality.
link |
00:45:44.360
And information itself, back to entropy,
link |
00:45:47.560
information is the resolution of entropy.
link |
00:45:50.320
That's what the bit is, right?
link |
00:45:51.560
It's a one or a zero.
link |
00:45:52.440
Whatever reduces your entropy by half is a bit.
link |
00:45:55.040
And we measure information in bits.
link |
00:45:57.480
So.
link |
00:45:58.640
And you're right.
link |
00:45:59.760
People don't have ideas, ideas have people.
link |
00:46:02.840
Honestly, it's a really profound idea
link |
00:46:07.080
or a statement about reality, a reframing of reality.
link |
00:46:13.160
If we're actually being deeply honest about it,
link |
00:46:15.320
it's quite painful.
link |
00:46:17.240
I do appreciate that you defended
link |
00:46:19.280
your biological meatbag earlier,
link |
00:46:21.760
but it seems like ideas are the things that have power.
link |
00:46:26.020
That me, Lex, for example, is worthless.
link |
00:46:31.040
And relative to the ideas that used my brain
link |
00:46:35.820
for a bit of a time.
link |
00:46:37.600
But so far as we know, only human beings
link |
00:46:40.800
can generate and share ideas.
link |
00:46:42.400
So you can't say Lex is worthless.
link |
00:46:44.440
Like you are the node of the idea sphere.
link |
00:46:47.960
I'm the newest fear.
link |
00:46:49.080
So.
link |
00:46:51.120
What is it?
link |
00:46:52.040
From a Bitcoin perspective, I'm like, I'm mining.
link |
00:46:55.160
I'm solving the cryptographic problem and generate.
link |
00:47:01.040
In that sense, I'm a useful node.
link |
00:47:03.200
Yeah, you're competing to solve the puzzle of entropy,
link |
00:47:06.560
right?
link |
00:47:07.400
And when you do solve it, it benefits the entire network.
link |
00:47:09.620
But I guess from my perspective,
link |
00:47:13.320
just because just working in AI,
link |
00:47:15.400
I'm looking at the longterm vision.
link |
00:47:17.600
I see us humans and AI systems as really the same
link |
00:47:22.500
and AI systems ultimately as something
link |
00:47:25.000
that supersedes humans.
link |
00:47:27.120
So what is intelligence?
link |
00:47:33.360
So in the context of our current discussion,
link |
00:47:36.780
I think intelligence is very closely linked
link |
00:47:41.080
to this notion of ideas.
link |
00:47:45.340
And it's the ability to generate ideas,
link |
00:47:48.560
to mold ideas, to compress seeming chaos
link |
00:47:54.600
into some model, into some theory
link |
00:47:58.680
that efficiently compresses the chaos
link |
00:48:01.440
in a way where you can then integrate it with other ideas
link |
00:48:04.880
and they can play and all those kinds of things.
link |
00:48:07.080
So in that sense, it's the turning chaos into order.
link |
00:48:11.840
It's the molding of ideas such that our human brains
link |
00:48:15.720
can work with it.
link |
00:48:17.840
And just from my perspective,
link |
00:48:19.600
I don't see any reason why that can not be algorithmatized,
link |
00:48:22.880
converted into computational systems.
link |
00:48:25.580
I would agree.
link |
00:48:27.220
Which is scary.
link |
00:48:29.240
Scary or potentially really promising, right?
link |
00:48:33.400
It's kind of the case of all novelty.
link |
00:48:34.820
It's terrifying as much as it is promising.
link |
00:48:37.160
That's why you're pursuing it so heavily.
link |
00:48:39.440
I would maybe take it a step further
link |
00:48:42.520
and say that intelligence
link |
00:48:44.720
in maybe its most simplistic form is error correction.
link |
00:48:48.260
So we, humans have wants.
link |
00:48:53.300
Again, we're constantly expressing our value through action.
link |
00:48:56.240
There's no other way to express it by the way.
link |
00:48:58.000
It's whatever you choose to do in any moment,
link |
00:49:00.380
you are expressing the values you hold
link |
00:49:02.280
in your mind and your heart.
link |
00:49:03.680
So as we move from less valued A to more valued B,
link |
00:49:12.120
entropy happens, uncertainty happens, we fall off course.
link |
00:49:16.160
And it is intelligence that enables us
link |
00:49:19.320
to render information from that experience
link |
00:49:21.680
and error correct, right?
link |
00:49:23.720
So that we can move slightly,
link |
00:49:25.920
shift our trajectory slightly more towards B
link |
00:49:29.120
that we're trying to move towards.
link |
00:49:30.860
So I think that there's something there
link |
00:49:35.600
that I don't know that we can make synthetically.
link |
00:49:41.840
And that if we define intelligence as error correction,
link |
00:49:45.800
it's like error correction to what?
link |
00:49:47.120
It's error correction towards what we find is valuable.
link |
00:49:50.600
So we're trying to satisfy human wants.
link |
00:49:52.560
Might not just be our own, could be others as well.
link |
00:49:54.240
If I'm an entrepreneur,
link |
00:49:55.080
I'm trying to solve the wants of others, not just myself.
link |
00:49:57.560
And I'm trying to error correct myself towards that goal,
link |
00:50:01.400
using intelligence and processing environmental feedback
link |
00:50:04.680
through intelligence to error correct.
link |
00:50:06.560
So I don't know how,
link |
00:50:08.040
if you eliminate the human element completely,
link |
00:50:12.440
who's doing the wanting, right?
link |
00:50:13.940
Where does value come from?
link |
00:50:15.320
I know the machine learning people who are listening
link |
00:50:18.240
are saying that's exactly what machine learning is,
link |
00:50:20.280
which is error correction
link |
00:50:21.480
because you have a loss function, objective function
link |
00:50:24.060
that measures how wrong your thing is
link |
00:50:28.320
and you wanna make it less wrong next time.
link |
00:50:30.240
That's the whole process of machine learning.
link |
00:50:32.000
But you're saying what humans are able to do
link |
00:50:35.560
is in a world where there's no maybe objective values,
link |
00:50:42.280
absolute values, you're generating that very loss function,
link |
00:50:46.480
that objective function that measures the error
link |
00:50:51.480
comes from the human mind.
link |
00:50:55.120
Some aliens might disagree with you
link |
00:50:57.240
because they might have a different objective function.
link |
00:51:00.040
Obviously, the purpose comes from consciousness, I think.
link |
00:51:02.800
And without purpose, there's not error correction.
link |
00:51:05.560
Yeah, I mean, this is again, a hypothesis.
link |
00:51:08.000
Like where does purpose come from?
link |
00:51:09.560
It seems to come from consciousness, you're right.
link |
00:51:13.160
That's where suffering comes from
link |
00:51:15.160
and you want to lessen suffering.
link |
00:51:18.160
That's where pleasure comes from.
link |
00:51:20.120
It seems like it's consciousness.
link |
00:51:21.920
Maybe there's something to this biological meat bag.
link |
00:51:25.160
So to take it one layer deeper on this
link |
00:51:27.320
and the reason I like this book so much,
link |
00:51:29.120
again, The Case Against Reality.
link |
00:51:31.660
So he's making the case that space and time
link |
00:51:33.600
are not fundamental.
link |
00:51:35.200
Yes.
link |
00:51:36.040
Which I started my intellectual explorations in physics,
link |
00:51:39.260
actually astrophysics.
link |
00:51:40.180
So for the longest time, even the way I describe money
link |
00:51:42.660
as I talk about space and time, so that blew my mind.
link |
00:51:46.560
But this dovetailed nicely with another book called Lila.
link |
00:51:51.440
The author is Robert Persig.
link |
00:51:53.400
So he wrote Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance,
link |
00:51:55.560
which is a very popular book.
link |
00:51:57.280
20 years later, he wrote Lila, which no one's heard of,
link |
00:52:00.120
which is crazy.
link |
00:52:01.400
And he basically says he was wrong about his first book.
link |
00:52:03.920
And he lays out this entire other metaphysics of quality,
link |
00:52:08.400
he calls it.
link |
00:52:09.240
So it's the metaphysics, I think it's metaphysics of quality.
link |
00:52:12.480
But his supposition is that it's not physical reality
link |
00:52:18.080
that's fundamental.
link |
00:52:19.040
It's not informational information that's fundamental,
link |
00:52:22.240
it's value.
link |
00:52:24.240
So he actually, and it's a beautiful book,
link |
00:52:26.960
I highly recommend it.
link |
00:52:29.200
He essentially is refuting causality itself.
link |
00:52:33.180
We think A causes B.
link |
00:52:34.960
This book makes the case that B values precondition A,
link |
00:52:42.580
so that we are actually creating our future
link |
00:52:45.980
through our value systems.
link |
00:52:48.420
And this goes back to something,
link |
00:52:50.900
I think Solzhenitsyn said this,
link |
00:52:52.260
that the line between good and evil
link |
00:52:54.300
runs down the heart of every man.
link |
00:52:56.220
So it's as if our moral decisions
link |
00:52:58.940
are actually what's creating the outcomes
link |
00:53:01.500
in reality over time.
link |
00:53:03.260
And then that gets into all the wisdom traditions
link |
00:53:05.500
related to religion,
link |
00:53:06.620
where it's always talking about loving thy neighbor
link |
00:53:10.180
and loving God and all of these other things
link |
00:53:12.380
that are good morally to create the best outcomes.
link |
00:53:15.260
So values are fundamental.
link |
00:53:17.840
Value, yes.
link |
00:53:19.260
Value is fundamental.
link |
00:53:22.300
Oh boy, yeah, that's interesting.
link |
00:53:26.940
It does feel like physics is not capturing something.
link |
00:53:30.140
You know, there's some people, panpsychists argue
link |
00:53:35.500
that consciousness might be one of the fundamental
link |
00:53:38.300
properties of nature,
link |
00:53:39.620
like from which emerges everything we see.
link |
00:53:42.820
So that could be just other words
link |
00:53:46.420
for this same notion of value.
link |
00:53:49.420
And then the basic laws of physics
link |
00:53:51.700
are not capturing that currently.
link |
00:53:54.020
So maybe humans, in order to understand
link |
00:53:56.500
from where humans came from,
link |
00:53:57.820
we have to understand these other properties of nature,
link |
00:54:00.580
which are yet to be discovered at the physics level.
link |
00:54:03.500
And it's, we contend with that underlying nature,
link |
00:54:08.140
whatever it is, with the logos, right?
link |
00:54:10.760
So we're looking at uncategorized nature
link |
00:54:16.220
and then we're assigning a word to it.
link |
00:54:18.540
So we're slicing up chaos into little boxes of order.
link |
00:54:23.260
And then we're establishing this social consensus
link |
00:54:25.740
as to those labels, which we'd call words.
link |
00:54:28.860
And we're using that to communicate.
link |
00:54:30.780
And when we communicate,
link |
00:54:33.820
we can start to build these other things.
link |
00:54:35.260
This is like the Yuval Harari imagined orders.
link |
00:54:37.980
So we can create these useful fictions, right?
link |
00:54:41.060
Whether it's the nation state or human rights or money.
link |
00:54:44.060
And that allows us to cooperate flexibly in large numbers
link |
00:54:48.580
so that we can better contend with reality.
link |
00:54:50.500
We can produce more complicated things.
link |
00:54:53.720
We can enlarge that bubble of civilization against entropy.
link |
00:54:58.380
And that's what capitalism is all about.
link |
00:55:01.100
It's about further specializing knowledge,
link |
00:55:04.520
further enriching mankind's treasury of knowledge
link |
00:55:08.700
and doing it.
link |
00:55:09.580
But to do that, the communication media that we're using,
link |
00:55:14.240
the words have to have stable meaning.
link |
00:55:16.780
The money needs to have value that's dependable, right?
link |
00:55:21.540
It needs to be something that's, it's not dictated
link |
00:55:25.600
by any one group.
link |
00:55:26.920
It's reached by consensus of the entire group.
link |
00:55:30.620
That's how, so you could think it's like optimizing
link |
00:55:35.580
for error correction again,
link |
00:55:36.760
where a free market would be harnessing the intelligence
link |
00:55:39.980
of all market actors and a central planning
link |
00:55:43.860
or essentially planned market would be harnessing
link |
00:55:46.020
just the intelligence of a small group of bureaucrats.
link |
00:55:49.860
And it's not obvious how to achieve this kind
link |
00:55:51.620
of consensus mechanism.
link |
00:55:53.460
I mean, there's obviously, we'll talk about sort of Bitcoin
link |
00:55:56.780
as an idea.
link |
00:55:57.880
Ultimately, the idea of Bitcoin is connecting it to physics.
link |
00:56:02.860
So like, you can trust that physical matter won't change.
link |
00:56:09.060
But, you know, there could be other ideas that we get.
link |
00:56:12.940
Maybe physics could be changed.
link |
00:56:14.660
If Eric Weinstein has anything to say about it.
link |
00:56:17.420
Like it's, you know, we right now believe
link |
00:56:19.980
that physics can't be changed.
link |
00:56:21.580
The physical matter of the world, but maybe it can
link |
00:56:24.460
in a way that we're totally not understanding.
link |
00:56:26.480
You mentioned sort of reality
link |
00:56:28.460
from Donald Hoffman's perspective.
link |
00:56:32.460
Like if we don't have even close to direct access
link |
00:56:35.440
to the fabric of reality, maybe we're living in a world
link |
00:56:39.600
that's very like many dimensions,
link |
00:56:42.420
that the notions of space and time is just like a silly,
link |
00:56:45.180
useful construct that's not at all connected.
link |
00:56:48.480
You're starting to look at like Stephen Wolframs.
link |
00:56:51.020
I don't know if you're familiar with this view
link |
00:56:53.500
of the world that it's like hypergraphs underneath it all.
link |
00:56:57.140
Like these mathematical structures
link |
00:56:58.660
from which everything emerges.
link |
00:57:00.460
Like they're like many, many, many orders of magnitude,
link |
00:57:07.380
smaller than what we think of.
link |
00:57:10.140
They're even smaller than like strings and string theory.
link |
00:57:13.240
So like those are the basic mathematical objects
link |
00:57:15.300
from which it emerges.
link |
00:57:16.540
I don't, you know,
link |
00:57:17.620
I think that's an interesting philosophical framework.
link |
00:57:20.540
It's also, people should check out a cool way to play
link |
00:57:25.340
with beautiful hypergraph mathematical structures.
link |
00:57:27.700
So he has, I don't know if you know who Stephen Wolfram is,
link |
00:57:30.040
but he created Wolfram Alpha and all these tools
link |
00:57:34.240
that you can actually visualize and play with.
link |
00:57:36.360
So you can play with physics in a visual way,
link |
00:57:39.280
which, or at least discrete mathematics,
link |
00:57:43.540
which I think is incredible.
link |
00:57:45.060
He doesn't get enough love.
link |
00:57:46.820
One of the reasons he, I think doesn't get enough love
link |
00:57:50.420
is because of this little quirk of human nature,
link |
00:57:53.360
which is the ego.
link |
00:57:55.700
And he sometimes frustrates a few folks
link |
00:57:59.860
because he's very, let's say proud of his work.
link |
00:58:03.980
I guess.
link |
00:58:04.820
But it's interesting to think about a world
link |
00:58:10.380
where we don't have direct access to reality,
link |
00:58:13.580
as Hoffman argues.
link |
00:58:14.980
And maybe, I don't know if you can comment.
link |
00:58:17.300
I don't know if you're familiar with Ayn Rand's work
link |
00:58:19.380
and her whole philosophy of objectivism
link |
00:58:21.980
or her whole contention is that, you know,
link |
00:58:25.700
we do have access.
link |
00:58:28.360
I don't want to misstate it,
link |
00:58:29.420
but at least she would claim
link |
00:58:33.220
that it's not useful,
link |
00:58:39.180
or I think she would probably say it's not correct
link |
00:58:41.600
to argue that we don't have access to reality.
link |
00:58:44.220
We have, hence, objectivism.
link |
00:58:46.060
We have direct access to reality.
link |
00:58:49.140
That's the only thing we can reason about.
link |
00:58:52.380
And the only way to live life morally
link |
00:58:55.120
is to reason through everything,
link |
00:58:57.740
starting with the axioms of reality,
link |
00:58:59.620
which we do have direct access to.
link |
00:59:02.060
Do you have thoughts about her work?
link |
00:59:04.580
I am slightly ashamed to say I have not read Ayn Rand yet.
link |
00:59:08.900
So she is high on my list
link |
00:59:10.500
and she's been recommended a number of times.
link |
00:59:14.700
So I don't know a lot specifically
link |
00:59:16.260
about her philosophy or objectivism,
link |
00:59:18.300
but to me, it resonates closely
link |
00:59:21.620
with what the American pragmatist commented on truth.
link |
00:59:25.780
And they distinguished what you could say
link |
00:59:28.140
is absolute truth, which is at the bottom of reality,
link |
00:59:31.300
whether it's Mr. Wolfram's mathematical formulas or value,
link |
00:59:34.340
whatever it may be, it's something ineffable,
link |
00:59:37.020
something beyond the reach of epistemology, perhaps even.
link |
00:59:42.340
And maybe that's why religion just sort of points to it.
link |
00:59:45.580
It's trying to use, I think Joseph Campbell said something
link |
00:59:50.060
like religion is using stories
link |
00:59:55.700
to point towards the same transcendental mystery
link |
00:59:58.460
we all experience but cannot articulate.
link |
01:00:01.220
So something like the artist,
link |
01:00:03.180
the artist uses lies to point to the truth,
link |
01:00:06.820
something like that, that kind of thing.
link |
01:00:10.140
That's really good.
link |
01:00:10.980
But the American pragmatist said that,
link |
01:00:13.700
because at the end of the day, this is all about,
link |
01:00:16.300
when we say truth, we need something
link |
01:00:18.580
that is close to social consensus
link |
01:00:23.420
and is not shakable by political action.
link |
01:00:25.980
So that's what physics and mathematics are.
link |
01:00:28.380
It's an unshakable point of reference,
link |
01:00:33.940
I guess you might say.
link |
01:00:35.140
So the American pragmatist defined truth
link |
01:00:39.420
as the end of inquiry.
link |
01:00:42.460
And in markets, we could say that the market itself
link |
01:00:48.420
is a forum that generates truth.
link |
01:00:50.620
We call this pragmatic truth
link |
01:00:51.940
to separate pure objective truth
link |
01:00:53.940
that we can't even talk about without polluting it
link |
01:00:56.580
versus pragmatic truth,
link |
01:00:57.700
which is something that's useful.
link |
01:00:59.340
So the example here would be,
link |
01:01:01.940
if I give you a map and you're trying to go
link |
01:01:05.580
from your house to the local brisket restaurant,
link |
01:01:09.060
and the map gets you from your house
link |
01:01:10.780
to the brisket restaurant,
link |
01:01:12.420
is that because the map is true
link |
01:01:13.940
or is that because the map is useful?
link |
01:01:16.740
They're very hard to disentangle
link |
01:01:18.620
when you're just looking at it pragmatically.
link |
01:01:21.420
And in markets, markets, I argue,
link |
01:01:23.900
generate three forms of pragmatic truth.
link |
01:01:26.460
One is the price.
link |
01:01:28.420
So this is the collective subjective demand
link |
01:01:33.420
and purchasing power of humanity
link |
01:01:35.860
running up against the objective supply of capital
link |
01:01:39.860
and resources in the marketplace.
link |
01:01:41.820
So there's demand overlaid on supply.
link |
01:01:44.380
The result of that is the price.
link |
01:01:46.060
So that is the most truthful exchange ratio,
link |
01:01:51.260
which is the closest approximation to the value
link |
01:01:54.180
of any good in the marketplace.
link |
01:01:56.100
So it gives us a data point on which we can operate.
link |
01:01:58.660
It's compressing all known market realities
link |
01:02:01.420
down into a single actionable number.
link |
01:02:03.860
You know, based on the price of bread or copper,
link |
01:02:05.980
whether you wanna buy more of it,
link |
01:02:07.580
you wanna abstain from buying it,
link |
01:02:09.060
or maybe you wanna try and find substitutes.
link |
01:02:11.420
And you can think of that price signal,
link |
01:02:13.940
it's like an economic nerve signal.
link |
01:02:15.580
It's coordinating human action across time.
link |
01:02:17.620
So if we're one socioeconomic superorganism or collective,
link |
01:02:22.900
that the price signal is the nerve.
link |
01:02:24.620
And that's the first form of pragmatic truth
link |
01:02:27.060
that markets generate.
link |
01:02:28.460
The second form would be tools and innovations themselves.
link |
01:02:32.300
So entrepreneurs are experimenting across time.
link |
01:02:35.700
They're trying to satisfy the wants of consumers.
link |
01:02:37.700
Consumers are sovereign in the marketplace.
link |
01:02:40.540
Whatever the consumer wants, the consumer gets, right?
link |
01:02:43.940
I'm trying to satisfy that.
link |
01:02:44.980
I'm trying to do it at a profit.
link |
01:02:46.460
So I'm trying to take viewing the existing price signals
link |
01:02:49.740
of goods in the marketplace.
link |
01:02:50.700
I'm trying to assemble those in a way
link |
01:02:53.260
at a cost lower than the final solution
link |
01:02:55.780
I'm delivering to my customer.
link |
01:02:57.380
I'm selling it at a price higher
link |
01:02:58.700
than the productive factors I combined to create it.
link |
01:03:02.820
And in that iterative process,
link |
01:03:05.100
we're constantly discovering new and better ways
link |
01:03:08.980
of solving problems or satisfying the wants.
link |
01:03:11.420
So we could say, to go out and dig a hole, right?
link |
01:03:14.900
Someone wants a hole dug,
link |
01:03:16.540
that a shovel is gonna let you do it much faster per hour
link |
01:03:20.260
than you would with your bare hands.
link |
01:03:22.460
So what is the pragmatic truth of digging holes?
link |
01:03:26.300
It's a shovel, right?
link |
01:03:27.380
It's the best way we know how to solve
link |
01:03:30.020
any particular problem based on
link |
01:03:33.020
the existing treasury of knowledge.
link |
01:03:35.340
So every tool, again, we're back to ideas being fundamental.
link |
01:03:39.140
The shovel itself is just a knowledge structure.
link |
01:03:42.980
We've figured out a way to create this particular implement
link |
01:03:45.620
and then we've indexed the raw materials
link |
01:03:47.780
we found in nature to this knowledge structure
link |
01:03:49.980
to create a shovel,
link |
01:03:51.220
which allows us to better satisfy human wants
link |
01:03:55.940
faster, cheaper, better, effectively.
link |
01:03:57.260
I'm trying to generalize,
link |
01:03:59.460
you're blowing my mind a little bit here.
link |
01:04:01.220
I'm trying to generalize the idea of tool
link |
01:04:03.660
to how to think about it.
link |
01:04:04.780
Cause I keep just, when you say tool,
link |
01:04:07.780
I keep imagining different tools,
link |
01:04:09.580
like specific instantiations of a tool.
link |
01:04:12.220
I'm trying to see, so the price is a pragmatic truth
link |
01:04:16.100
that's communicating value in this network.
link |
01:04:21.780
Subjective demands against objective supply.
link |
01:04:26.660
Subjective.
link |
01:04:27.500
So it's an economic democracy.
link |
01:04:29.260
Got it.
link |
01:04:30.100
So that's the demand supply.
link |
01:04:32.260
And then the tools are the ways of extracting
link |
01:04:36.380
or solving problems is the more general kind of thing.
link |
01:04:39.500
Or satisfying wants.
link |
01:04:40.860
Satisfying wants.
link |
01:04:42.740
So wants are somehow, that's part of the supply
link |
01:04:46.980
and the demand.
link |
01:04:48.060
And wants are back to value, right?
link |
01:04:49.900
Cause everything someone wants,
link |
01:04:51.140
they're expressing their value.
link |
01:04:53.180
Okay.
link |
01:04:54.020
Yeah.
link |
01:04:54.860
So the shovel is a pragmatic truth.
link |
01:04:57.460
The shovel is truth.
link |
01:04:58.860
It feels like a good book title.
link |
01:05:00.540
Okay, sorry.
link |
01:05:01.380
So what other pragma, what is it?
link |
01:05:03.220
And then the third one I would argue is virtue actually.
link |
01:05:08.540
Oh wow.
link |
01:05:09.740
And another way to maybe think about this
link |
01:05:13.340
is competitive competency,
link |
01:05:14.740
but it's also cooperative competency.
link |
01:05:17.140
So we're learning over time what characteristics,
link |
01:05:20.740
what patterns of action, what mindsets,
link |
01:05:24.780
what mental tools, what heuristics are most useful
link |
01:05:27.980
to satisfying customer wants.
link |
01:05:30.660
So I think that becomes over time,
link |
01:05:32.780
becomes sharpened into virtue, right?
link |
01:05:34.380
Like we know it's best to be honest
link |
01:05:36.500
because if you lie, it's very energy inefficient, right?
link |
01:05:39.340
You're creating this little fork of reality.
link |
01:05:41.700
And then if someone else asks you about that lie again,
link |
01:05:43.460
you have to put another layer of lies on top of it.
link |
01:05:46.140
Where if you just tell the truth,
link |
01:05:47.220
you're just recollecting what happened.
link |
01:05:49.300
And so that sort of keeps,
link |
01:05:52.820
again, when we're talking about delaying volatility, right?
link |
01:05:55.620
If you lie, you're delaying short term volatility,
link |
01:05:59.220
but you're increasing longterm volatility.
link |
01:06:00.860
What about murder?
link |
01:06:01.700
I haven't been able to figure out why murder is bad
link |
01:06:04.140
because I just keep wanting to murder people.
link |
01:06:07.140
And I've murdered many.
link |
01:06:08.300
She's the one for that.
link |
01:06:09.660
Well, that's why I'm trying to get an interview
link |
01:06:11.820
with Vladimir Putin.
link |
01:06:13.380
So that's fascinating, virtue in this market
link |
01:06:16.980
with the supplies and demands, and there's the tools,
link |
01:06:19.740
which is also a pragmatic truth, and there's virtue.
link |
01:06:23.300
It's a pragmatic truth.
link |
01:06:24.980
Yeah, and if we interfere with that free market process,
link |
01:06:28.220
again, if we overstep, which this maybe ties into murder,
link |
01:06:31.340
if you start to be coercive against life,
link |
01:06:34.580
liberty or property,
link |
01:06:35.980
so if you're forcibly taking someone's life,
link |
01:06:38.900
you're breaking down the trust in that market
link |
01:06:41.380
that generates these pragmatic truths.
link |
01:06:44.100
If you forcibly infringe on someone's liberty, right?
link |
01:06:48.700
For any reason other than them originally breaking
link |
01:06:53.220
or infringing upon life, liberty or property,
link |
01:06:55.060
then that's not gonna work either.
link |
01:06:56.860
And then if you violate private property rights,
link |
01:06:59.340
if you steal property from others,
link |
01:07:01.140
you're breaking down the trust
link |
01:07:04.340
that the intersubjective fabric of money and markets
link |
01:07:08.780
and the rule of law, all of these useful fictions
link |
01:07:11.140
are meant to preserve,
link |
01:07:12.140
you're corrupting it and breaking it down.
link |
01:07:14.780
What's kind of interesting to think about the market
link |
01:07:16.500
as helping evolve the virtues.
link |
01:07:20.580
It's sharpened into virtues.
link |
01:07:22.980
And then these virtues can then go
link |
01:07:24.700
into motivational posters,
link |
01:07:27.380
or like in books that we all agree on,
link |
01:07:30.340
and then eventually take for granted
link |
01:07:32.740
as if they were somehow fundamental to human nature,
link |
01:07:35.340
but they're not perhaps fundamental,
link |
01:07:37.700
they're just pragmatic truths.
link |
01:07:40.460
Yeah, another way to consider competition itself
link |
01:07:45.580
is that it is a discovery process.
link |
01:07:48.380
So, you know, entrepreneurs are competing with one another
link |
01:07:52.620
and they're trying to best satisfy consumer wants
link |
01:07:56.460
at the lowest possible price.
link |
01:07:57.700
So they're placing bets of time, energy and capital
link |
01:08:00.460
on themselves, on their idea, their business plan.
link |
01:08:03.740
And then the market decides, right?
link |
01:08:06.420
The consensus of market actors decide which one was better.
link |
01:08:10.260
One lives, one dies.
link |
01:08:12.860
So competition itself is helping us get closer to truth,
link |
01:08:16.900
to pragmatic truth.
link |
01:08:18.060
So we're discovering what is the right price for this asset.
link |
01:08:21.380
And that price, by the way, it's derived,
link |
01:08:24.180
again, in the sense of data compression.
link |
01:08:26.500
Everyone in the world can see that price.
link |
01:08:28.940
Everyone in the world can then put their skin in the game
link |
01:08:31.580
by choosing to buy or sell or short or go long
link |
01:08:34.300
or do any number of financial actions on that price.
link |
01:08:38.220
And that information is then propagated back out
link |
01:08:40.420
to everyone else.
link |
01:08:41.260
So it's this feedback loop between market actor and price
link |
01:08:44.980
that makes it so useful.
link |
01:08:48.100
And that's what carries us,
link |
01:08:52.500
so it's these collisions of interest that carry us,
link |
01:08:56.060
it removes the unuseful aspects of ourselves
link |
01:09:00.900
or of our tools or of a price
link |
01:09:02.940
and reveals pragmatic truth to us.
link |
01:09:05.420
Can you play my therapist for a second?
link |
01:09:08.220
And if we talk about creative destruction,
link |
01:09:11.300
I think, not Bukowski,
link |
01:09:15.260
Hunter S. Thompson has a quote,
link |
01:09:17.460
something like, for all instances of beauty,
link |
01:09:20.940
many souls must be trampled.
link |
01:09:22.820
Wow.
link |
01:09:25.060
But there does seem to be an aspect of competition
link |
01:09:32.580
that destroys, you were talking about entrepreneurs
link |
01:09:36.500
sort of on the outside of the circle of order,
link |
01:09:40.780
striving to make sense, to compress volatility
link |
01:09:45.140
of the chaos of the universe.
link |
01:09:47.860
Is there some way to protect a little bit
link |
01:09:53.420
against the pain of that destruction
link |
01:09:55.380
or that creative destruction,
link |
01:09:57.100
that entrepreneur screaming on fire
link |
01:10:00.340
as he enlightens the rest of us,
link |
01:10:03.660
is there some role for us humans together
link |
01:10:06.740
in the togetherness of it?
link |
01:10:10.220
Also government, but any kind of collectives
link |
01:10:15.060
in helping that entrepreneur who's on fire
link |
01:10:18.300
maybe after a few minutes to spray him with some water
link |
01:10:22.860
and put him out of his misery?
link |
01:10:26.460
I would say that pain is the inarguable basis of being.
link |
01:10:34.380
Pain is, no matter how you try to explain it away
link |
01:10:39.820
or describe it,
link |
01:10:41.340
or it's not something you can rationalize away.
link |
01:10:46.980
No one, I think ever,
link |
01:10:50.900
someone may want to cut themselves to have an endorphin high
link |
01:10:53.180
but no one wants to suffer, we'd say, right?
link |
01:10:55.060
So pain in that sense,
link |
01:10:56.980
it is what we're constantly trying to deal with
link |
01:11:00.500
and to move away from or create buffers between us
link |
01:11:04.780
and potential pain or potential uncertainty.
link |
01:11:07.620
And that pain is information.
link |
01:11:10.900
When we experience something
link |
01:11:12.500
that is misfit to the outcome we desired,
link |
01:11:16.100
that pain is what puts us,
link |
01:11:17.820
it encourages us to change our trajectory
link |
01:11:20.820
to get back on course towards our valued aim.
link |
01:11:24.060
So as far as, you need entrepreneurs that are exploring,
link |
01:11:31.020
and you're trying to do something new,
link |
01:11:32.340
if you're a pioneer of any kind,
link |
01:11:33.860
you are courageously facing pain.
link |
01:11:36.140
You're willfully confronting it.
link |
01:11:38.060
So I don't think it's avoidable in that sense.
link |
01:11:40.900
It's not like we can have pain free economic growth
link |
01:11:44.540
like the central bank would maybe have us lend to believe
link |
01:11:48.020
that we can just run these experiments
link |
01:11:50.220
and when they fail,
link |
01:11:51.060
we'll just paper over all the losses and continue.
link |
01:11:52.900
Or you're just delaying and exacerbating
link |
01:11:56.140
the inevitable volatility back to reality.
link |
01:11:59.660
But what I would say is that capitalism,
link |
01:12:02.660
because we're building,
link |
01:12:03.820
we're increasing the capital stock of the world,
link |
01:12:05.620
which again, capital is the mitigation of risk.
link |
01:12:08.060
So we're reducing the overall risk of existence
link |
01:12:10.420
by accumulating more capital in the world.
link |
01:12:12.580
And that's what protects that entrepreneur
link |
01:12:14.900
that's deciding, hey, I saved up a million bucks.
link |
01:12:17.580
I'm gonna go try this business idea.
link |
01:12:20.100
I'm gonna put all my money on the line.
link |
01:12:22.300
And if he goes up in flames,
link |
01:12:24.420
then his cost of living when he comes back to reality
link |
01:12:27.180
and he's starting over from zero,
link |
01:12:28.380
his cost of living is substantially lower
link |
01:12:31.060
starting over from zero than it was in the past.
link |
01:12:33.700
So then he would be out in the wilderness on his own.
link |
01:12:37.020
So it's the accumulation of capital stock
link |
01:12:40.020
is the buffer against uncertainty for everyone.
link |
01:12:43.300
And it gives you actually more potential
link |
01:12:47.060
to go out and experiment,
link |
01:12:48.420
to go out and confront the chaos of nature
link |
01:12:51.180
because you are better healed effectively.
link |
01:12:54.980
So I think we're speaking
link |
01:12:58.980
in sort of idealistic terms about the power of capitals
link |
01:13:03.020
and when it works well.
link |
01:13:04.740
Is there any aspects that you think
link |
01:13:07.020
that don't work well in a free market
link |
01:13:10.500
in all the basic pragmatic truths
link |
01:13:12.460
that we were talking about?
link |
01:13:13.580
Is there ways it can go wrong?
link |
01:13:16.900
So I would first argue that we have never seen
link |
01:13:22.940
an actual purely free market.
link |
01:13:25.500
Closest example would be kind of geopolitically
link |
01:13:34.580
we have a free market
link |
01:13:35.740
and that governments are not necessarily governed
link |
01:13:41.580
but they are premised on governing large groups
link |
01:13:46.780
of individuals.
link |
01:13:47.620
So that's not, doesn't exactly.
link |
01:13:49.940
You mean between governments?
link |
01:13:52.100
Yes.
link |
01:13:53.140
See, but isn't there still,
link |
01:13:54.620
so a free market, maybe you can correct me,
link |
01:13:57.780
is the free market still grounded in the ideas
link |
01:14:00.460
of property rights and all those kinds of things, right?
link |
01:14:03.980
So governments tend to also sometimes
link |
01:14:06.300
be violent towards each other.
link |
01:14:07.820
That's right.
link |
01:14:08.660
So they don't respect all the basic aspects of capitalism.
link |
01:14:11.820
That's right.
link |
01:14:12.660
So maybe another way to look at this is that
link |
01:14:15.020
gold is the original governor of government actually.
link |
01:14:20.860
And this is the reason governments have abused
link |
01:14:24.140
and gone off of the gold standard.
link |
01:14:26.980
So historically, if you are a bank or a nation state
link |
01:14:33.180
and you produce more currency
link |
01:14:37.820
than your gold reserves can justify,
link |
01:14:41.020
then gold will flow out of your bank
link |
01:14:43.860
or out of your country.
link |
01:14:45.020
So there's this natural check via the money
link |
01:14:50.020
that via capitalistic money, which is gold, right?
link |
01:14:53.300
Gold was selected by the free market.
link |
01:14:55.060
It's not decreed by government.
link |
01:14:57.460
It provided this natural check on government action.
link |
01:15:01.460
So my, I guess to get back to the original question is
link |
01:15:07.020
we've never seen a pure free market
link |
01:15:10.580
because money has always been monopolized
link |
01:15:15.100
and coerced, frankly.
link |
01:15:16.980
So to try and answer what goes wrong with a free market
link |
01:15:20.780
is really difficult because we've never actually seen it.
link |
01:15:23.580
And I would define free market is one
link |
01:15:27.620
in which government only protects life, liberty and property.
link |
01:15:31.580
And so that has a very minimal role in society.
link |
01:15:35.060
Again, just as network security
link |
01:15:37.340
for the economic trade network.
link |
01:15:39.740
And anything that, any government function that goes beyond
link |
01:15:44.660
those three core functions, which by the way,
link |
01:15:47.140
are pretty much the core tenants of morality as well.
link |
01:15:49.540
So government's just really intended to preserve,
link |
01:15:52.340
you know, natural law, if you will.
link |
01:15:55.060
Anything that goes beyond that is,
link |
01:15:58.060
moves us closer to an unfree market.
link |
01:16:00.580
So every regulation, every act of coercion
link |
01:16:05.100
is actually a gradation closer to a purely unfree market,
link |
01:16:10.540
which would be a monopoly.
link |
01:16:12.260
So in terms of what I guess theoretically we could say
link |
01:16:15.980
goes wrong in the free market is that it's volatile.
link |
01:16:20.220
It's trading off, it's accepting short term volatility
link |
01:16:26.500
in exchange for less long run volatility.
link |
01:16:29.820
And this tends to be the way of nature, by the way.
link |
01:16:32.300
So if we look at something like there's a region
link |
01:16:37.300
in North America called Baja, California,
link |
01:16:40.300
and it runs into the United States
link |
01:16:43.660
and it runs down into Mexico as well.
link |
01:16:45.420
So the same topology, but two different jurisdictions.
link |
01:16:50.340
In the US, we very heavily manage forest fires.
link |
01:16:55.580
We're trying to manage nature effectively.
link |
01:16:57.900
Whereas in Mexico is much more unregulated.
link |
01:16:59.980
It just, when wildfires spring up, they let them burn off.
link |
01:17:04.260
North America, when wildfires spring up,
link |
01:17:06.220
we're actually extinguishing them.
link |
01:17:08.140
So we're constantly trying to dampen
link |
01:17:09.660
the short run volatility of these small brush fires.
link |
01:17:12.260
Whereas in Mexico, we just let them burn.
link |
01:17:13.660
We let nature do its thing.
link |
01:17:15.500
The consequence of this is that the wildfires
link |
01:17:18.860
still occur eventually, but they're much larger
link |
01:17:21.260
and much more devastating in North America
link |
01:17:23.140
where human intervention has occurred
link |
01:17:25.180
because it's dampening nature's natural corrective mechanism
link |
01:17:31.820
of clearing this underbrush with these more frequent
link |
01:17:34.620
and smaller fires at the cost of much larger fires.
link |
01:17:38.020
So again, we're delaying short term volatility
link |
01:17:39.860
and exacerbating long run volatility.
link |
01:17:42.580
And in Mexico, it's the opposite, right?
link |
01:17:44.340
Just these wildfires burn much smaller
link |
01:17:46.500
and more continuously over time.
link |
01:17:49.340
The further effect of that in North America
link |
01:17:51.020
is that the fires can get so big and so hot
link |
01:17:53.180
that it burns away the top soil.
link |
01:17:55.100
So it actually destroys the fertility of the soil itself.
link |
01:17:58.460
So the point of this is that human intervention, right?
link |
01:18:02.940
Even the intention behind North American authorities
link |
01:18:06.540
managing that forest fire is to create less destruction.
link |
01:18:10.260
That is the intention,
link |
01:18:11.940
but the intention is divergent from the outcome.
link |
01:18:15.300
So in Taliban speak, he would say that human intervention
link |
01:18:18.900
moves us from mediocre stan into extremist stan.
link |
01:18:23.980
So mediocre stan would be something much more like nature
link |
01:18:27.340
where for instance, you can't double your body weight
link |
01:18:30.140
in a day, probably can't even do it in a year, right?
link |
01:18:33.700
But in extremist stan,
link |
01:18:34.740
which is something much more information based,
link |
01:18:37.140
you can double or send your net worth to zero
link |
01:18:41.900
in a single trade in a single moment, right?
link |
01:18:44.740
So when we try and intervene
link |
01:18:46.700
with natural biological systems
link |
01:18:48.620
that have these feedback loops,
link |
01:18:51.740
we actually start to push the system more
link |
01:18:53.820
to behave more like an extremist stan system
link |
01:18:57.340
that has less short run volatility,
link |
01:18:59.900
but more extreme long run volatility.
link |
01:19:03.260
So, but the question is,
link |
01:19:04.820
where you look at capitalism or communism, for example,
link |
01:19:09.340
and by the way, yes,
link |
01:19:10.580
I will talk to somebody who's a Marxist or a communist,
link |
01:19:13.180
like Richard Wolff is a pretty eloquent defender
link |
01:19:15.700
of these ideas because it's always good
link |
01:19:18.300
to really understand ideas
link |
01:19:19.980
as opposed to just reject them offhand.
link |
01:19:24.100
When you look at the system of capitalism
link |
01:19:26.300
or the system of communism,
link |
01:19:29.420
there's ideals and a lot of people argue
link |
01:19:32.140
in this perfect form would actually be good for the world.
link |
01:19:35.780
The question is how resilient are they
link |
01:19:38.620
to the corruption of human nature?
link |
01:19:42.220
And I mean, you're saying that there's not a,
link |
01:19:45.220
there's never been a free market.
link |
01:19:47.380
It's a very true statement.
link |
01:19:48.820
The question is how resilient is capitalism
link |
01:19:52.940
or whatever implementations of capitalism
link |
01:19:54.700
we had up to this point to human nature
link |
01:19:57.340
where one person will become successful
link |
01:19:59.340
through legitimate means
link |
01:20:03.060
and starts to try to manipulate the system
link |
01:20:05.940
that takes it away from a free market
link |
01:20:07.580
or takes it away from the things
link |
01:20:10.940
that gave them the riches in the first place.
link |
01:20:13.900
And then try to, through corruption, get more,
link |
01:20:17.220
get this, the thing you said, the lazy human ways.
link |
01:20:20.780
Now try to figure out how to get something for nothing.
link |
01:20:22.980
That's right.
link |
01:20:24.220
So how resilient do you think is capitalism to that?
link |
01:20:26.820
Well, the best implementation we've had of it
link |
01:20:31.460
really has been the United States, I think,
link |
01:20:35.700
up until this point.
link |
01:20:36.620
But it's still the central banking itself.
link |
01:20:42.420
This was in the 1848 Manifesto to the Communist Party.
link |
01:20:45.820
Measure number five reads an exclusive state monopoly
link |
01:20:49.740
and centralized control over cash and credit.
link |
01:20:51.860
So the central bank is a Marxist or communist institution.
link |
01:20:56.620
It is antithetical to the free market principles
link |
01:20:58.740
on which the United States was founded.
link |
01:21:00.460
And indeed, the United States resisted
link |
01:21:02.060
the implementation of a central bank.
link |
01:21:04.460
I think it was Andrew Jackson.
link |
01:21:06.500
I know there was the first national bank,
link |
01:21:08.420
the second national bank were both disbanded.
link |
01:21:10.820
And then Andrew Jackson, which is my favorite Tennessean,
link |
01:21:14.060
he has some famous quotes about routing out the bankers
link |
01:21:18.180
like a den of vipers.
link |
01:21:19.700
I think he punched one of the central bankers in the face.
link |
01:21:23.060
Back when our leaders were a bit more badass,
link |
01:21:26.980
I guess you might say.
link |
01:21:28.820
And finally in 1913, the Federal Reserve was implemented.
link |
01:21:35.380
And it's been kind of all downhill from there.
link |
01:21:39.460
So what is, can you, oh, sorry, go ahead.
link |
01:21:41.940
I was just gonna say that communism and capitalism,
link |
01:21:45.620
it's also a matter of scale.
link |
01:21:48.660
The ideal behind communism is from each
link |
01:21:51.500
according to their ability to each according to their need.
link |
01:21:54.100
Sounds beautiful, right?
link |
01:21:55.420
Sounds like a great, peaceful, harmonious way
link |
01:21:58.380
to organize ourselves.
link |
01:22:00.020
The problem is, and by the way, I am a communist
link |
01:22:03.700
in my family, in my home, right?
link |
01:22:05.500
At that very smallest of scales.
link |
01:22:07.140
Yes, in your very small circles of trust,
link |
01:22:10.220
you're much more likely to behave selflessly
link |
01:22:13.940
towards one another.
link |
01:22:14.780
By the way, I look forward to the Bitcoin community
link |
01:22:17.260
clipping out that part, saying that Robert Breedlove
link |
01:22:20.900
was a communist and the ideals of communism are beautiful.
link |
01:22:23.980
Yeah, context matters, people.
link |
01:22:25.580
Sorry, go ahead.
link |
01:22:29.420
But to your point, it does not scale, right?
link |
01:22:33.100
As we move into this larger system
link |
01:22:37.900
of socioeconomic cooperation, which is necessary
link |
01:22:41.580
to deepen the division of labor, to generate more wealth.
link |
01:22:44.940
We need to interact with one another on much larger scales
link |
01:22:48.540
than this communistic utopian ideal.
link |
01:22:52.220
We get into the realm of capitalism
link |
01:22:54.340
where we need really sound rules, hard rules,
link |
01:22:58.020
consensus, verifiability, and frankly, prices.
link |
01:23:03.620
Because the other thing in Soviet Russia
link |
01:23:06.340
is they tried to replace the profit motive
link |
01:23:08.780
or the price signal with this devotion to,
link |
01:23:13.140
this nationalistic faith and devotion.
link |
01:23:15.420
Where it's like, you don't need self interest anymore.
link |
01:23:18.340
You don't need prices or profits.
link |
01:23:20.300
You can just protect Mother Russia, right?
link |
01:23:23.220
And serve Mother Russia and that would create wealth.
link |
01:23:26.420
And what happened, right?
link |
01:23:28.060
They destroyed price signals.
link |
01:23:29.780
There were shortages, there were famines,
link |
01:23:32.180
there's all levels of corruption.
link |
01:23:35.980
Because to your point, it's once you,
link |
01:23:39.860
people have to run the system no matter what.
link |
01:23:42.500
So when people are always pursuing something for nothing
link |
01:23:45.420
and you put someone in a seat
link |
01:23:46.700
of much closer to absolute power
link |
01:23:49.260
where they're making all the pricing decisions,
link |
01:23:51.420
they own all of the productive factors in the economy,
link |
01:23:54.820
they're not beholden to any market force.
link |
01:23:57.780
There's no market check on their action
link |
01:24:01.700
that that institution tends to become more corrupt.
link |
01:24:04.820
And further, it's an inferior resource strategy.
link |
01:24:10.700
I alluded to this earlier where the other way
link |
01:24:12.860
to think about free market versus central planning is
link |
01:24:17.340
it's decentralized or distributed computing
link |
01:24:20.460
versus centralized computing.
link |
01:24:22.820
So each one of us, I think that the number
link |
01:24:26.180
is 120 bits per second of active awareness.
link |
01:24:29.460
And so we can take in, clearly we process a lot more
link |
01:24:32.060
than that, but our active awareness,
link |
01:24:33.180
I think is 120 bits per second.
link |
01:24:37.540
In a centralized planning body like in Soviet Russia,
link |
01:24:40.700
they had the pricing czar.
link |
01:24:41.900
Maybe they had 10, 20,000 people deciding the prices
link |
01:24:44.740
for the entire country.
link |
01:24:46.100
You're only getting that much data throughput, right?
link |
01:24:48.980
20,000 people times 120 bits per second.
link |
01:24:52.340
Whereas in a free market, if everyone is free to interact
link |
01:24:56.140
with deep capital markets based on an accurate price,
link |
01:24:59.060
you're getting the data throughput of 120 bits per second
link |
01:25:02.060
times the entire economy, right?
link |
01:25:04.460
So you're getting, it's a more efficient means
link |
01:25:08.820
for disseminating knowledge effectively.
link |
01:25:11.780
And then again, knowledge is just,
link |
01:25:14.020
the more knowledge a socioeconomic structure can contain,
link |
01:25:17.300
the more wealthy it is, right?
link |
01:25:19.180
Prices, tools, all these things are just knowledge.
link |
01:25:21.780
So in that respect, that's why something like capitalism,
link |
01:25:27.100
even in its marginalized form, state capitalism,
link |
01:25:30.740
out competes communism.
link |
01:25:33.100
It's distributed computing versus centralized computing.
link |
01:25:36.420
You know, we kind of brought up religion
link |
01:25:40.620
and Joseph Campbell and myth and the propagation of ideas.
link |
01:25:46.100
And kind of before I forget,
link |
01:25:48.020
I wanted to ask your thoughts about this.
link |
01:25:50.580
You know, Jordan Peterson, I haven't really understood
link |
01:25:55.060
exactly like be able to pin him down exactly
link |
01:25:58.580
what he sees as the role of religion in human society.
link |
01:26:03.580
But it feels like he's describing it as having value for us.
link |
01:26:12.140
The ideas of myth are valuable.
link |
01:26:15.300
They're valuable mechanisms toward,
link |
01:26:18.460
I think you mentioned kind of directing us
link |
01:26:21.340
in this world as a human society.
link |
01:26:25.020
Do you think about myth?
link |
01:26:26.060
Do you think about religion?
link |
01:26:27.460
What's the use of it in this construct of markets
link |
01:26:31.820
in this framework of where ideas are ultimately
link |
01:26:37.940
the fundamental thing that makes societies work?
link |
01:26:44.540
Yeah, I think Jordan Peterson, who I'm a huge fan of,
link |
01:26:49.780
he's been very influential in my thinking
link |
01:26:52.740
and influential on my own religious views as well.
link |
01:26:56.180
I think his position would be, and he's said this before,
link |
01:27:00.180
that he acts as if God exists.
link |
01:27:05.220
And I've had some arguments about this before,
link |
01:27:08.460
but to me that points towards the preeminence of action
link |
01:27:12.660
and how important action is
link |
01:27:14.180
versus your cognitive beliefs necessarily.
link |
01:27:19.100
And I think there is a lot of utility in that,
link |
01:27:20.820
that if you follow the moral code of something,
link |
01:27:24.380
like the Bible, you do reap benefits from that.
link |
01:27:28.420
Society reaps benefits from that.
link |
01:27:32.700
And sometimes I bring up this point and people are like,
link |
01:27:35.460
oh my God, are you kidding me?
link |
01:27:36.300
Have you read the Old Testament?
link |
01:27:37.620
They're clobbering people with rocks
link |
01:27:39.540
when they do the wrong thing.
link |
01:27:41.500
The Bible doesn't claim to be this,
link |
01:27:44.580
like do everything that was done in the Bible.
link |
01:27:46.500
It's more like charting this moral progression
link |
01:27:48.940
where we came from this very barbaric society
link |
01:27:51.620
into something more like the New Testament
link |
01:27:54.220
where we're honoring individual sovereignty
link |
01:27:56.820
above the state and things like that.
link |
01:27:58.220
So I think that mythology itself
link |
01:28:02.980
is another form of data compression.
link |
01:28:05.580
If you look at these stories,
link |
01:28:08.100
Cain and Abel is a good example,
link |
01:28:10.020
or Peterson makes the point that it's a tiny story.
link |
01:28:13.020
It's a paragraph ish long,
link |
01:28:16.020
but it contains so many layers of meaning
link |
01:28:18.620
in regards to violence, to evil, betrayal, work,
link |
01:28:24.620
the divergence between intention and result,
link |
01:28:27.220
because I think Cain is actually making,
link |
01:28:31.180
he's making the effort to sacrifice for God,
link |
01:28:34.420
but the sacrifices he's making are not,
link |
01:28:36.700
God doesn't find them useful.
link |
01:28:39.180
And so he sort of rejects them.
link |
01:28:45.220
Again, if we're organizing these stories
link |
01:28:48.260
we're organized by these useful fictions, right?
link |
01:28:50.500
These, these Herarian imagined orders.
link |
01:28:53.420
I think mythology is kind of the original version of that,
link |
01:28:56.820
where we were learning to organize ourselves around stories
link |
01:29:03.340
to best coordinate our action across space and time.
link |
01:29:09.140
And so I think it's very foundational.
link |
01:29:14.220
And back to what we were saying in the beginning
link |
01:29:16.180
that if value truly is fundamental,
link |
01:29:18.420
I think it's interesting that all these stories
link |
01:29:20.900
point towards often common moral values.
link |
01:29:24.620
They're not perfectly aligned,
link |
01:29:27.700
but it does speak to just the evolutionary importance
link |
01:29:32.220
of morality and the subjectivity of morality,
link |
01:29:34.620
where morality sort of evolves over time based on,
link |
01:29:39.100
frankly, the capital stock we've accumulated.
link |
01:29:40.900
The more capital stock we've accumulated,
link |
01:29:42.580
the easier life is, the less barbaric we have to be.
link |
01:29:45.700
Whereas if we're living in conditions of true scarcity,
link |
01:29:51.140
then we tend to be a bit more barbaric towards one another.
link |
01:29:55.300
And that too, to dovetail this
link |
01:29:57.180
into something largely unrelated,
link |
01:29:59.380
but I think is really important is inflation.
link |
01:30:03.100
Inflation by artificially increasing the prices
link |
01:30:07.380
of goods and services in the world, right?
link |
01:30:09.620
We're injecting more dollars,
link |
01:30:12.060
chasing the same level of goods and services.
link |
01:30:15.020
We are artificially increasing scarcity,
link |
01:30:19.460
perceived scarcity, right?
link |
01:30:21.700
And when you increase perceived scarcity,
link |
01:30:24.780
you are amplifying divisiveness.
link |
01:30:30.060
The natural state of man is when everything is scarce
link |
01:30:33.300
and you really have to fight hard
link |
01:30:34.700
just to eat or drink water that day.
link |
01:30:37.580
So it's decivilizing in a way
link |
01:30:40.540
by artificially amplifying
link |
01:30:42.540
the perceived scarcity in the world.
link |
01:30:44.780
Can you elaborate how does inflation increase
link |
01:30:47.340
the perceived scarcity in the world?
link |
01:30:49.220
So we could think the price itself is an indication,
link |
01:30:52.980
it's a data packet, if you will.
link |
01:30:54.620
The price is a data packet on supply and demand, right?
link |
01:30:57.820
It's telling you how much supply there is
link |
01:31:00.460
of something in the world relative to the demand.
link |
01:31:03.540
So when you print money
link |
01:31:06.460
and artificially increase that price,
link |
01:31:08.620
it's diverging away from supply and demand.
link |
01:31:10.820
It's becoming just more of a product of policy
link |
01:31:13.820
than it is of free market fundamentals.
link |
01:31:17.900
The more expensive something is,
link |
01:31:19.980
that is a signal to the marketplace and to market actors
link |
01:31:22.860
that it is scarce, right?
link |
01:31:24.700
That's why a Leonardo painting
link |
01:31:28.340
might sell for $16 million, there's only one,
link |
01:31:30.780
there's a lot of demand for it.
link |
01:31:32.940
Maybe my numbers are off, but you get the point.
link |
01:31:36.020
It's the reason mask spiked in price
link |
01:31:38.420
after the COVID announcement, right?
link |
01:31:39.940
There was not enough supply,
link |
01:31:41.900
toilet paper, et cetera, et cetera.
link |
01:31:43.660
So inflation, and by inflation,
link |
01:31:47.700
I specifically mean arbitrary fiat currency
link |
01:31:50.900
supply inflation by legal monopoly,
link |
01:31:53.900
not inflation is a commonly misunderstood word.
link |
01:31:57.340
That is amplifying the perception of scarcity
link |
01:32:01.380
among market actors in the world.
link |
01:32:03.580
And I would argue that it actually amplifies divisiveness.
link |
01:32:07.860
I think this is the key maybe to looking at
link |
01:32:12.060
the connection between the monopolization of money
link |
01:32:15.140
and things like cancel culture,
link |
01:32:17.180
because it's increasing our natural predilection
link |
01:32:22.820
to be combative with one another,
link |
01:32:24.340
because we think there's more scarcity in the world
link |
01:32:26.740
than there actually is,
link |
01:32:27.980
versus in a world where you're not increasing
link |
01:32:29.900
the money supply, prices are declining every year.
link |
01:32:33.220
As prices decline, this is a signal to market actors
link |
01:32:36.460
and the market that scarcity is declining.
link |
01:32:39.020
There's less need to fight over things.
link |
01:32:41.940
And all of this ties back into the old Bastiat saying
link |
01:32:46.180
that if goods don't cross borders, soldiers will.
link |
01:32:50.300
So if we're not trading with one another,
link |
01:32:52.020
if we're not acting interdependently,
link |
01:32:53.940
and we're not becoming more intelligent as a market,
link |
01:33:00.140
and that increased intelligence or increased knowledge
link |
01:33:03.820
is reflected in decreased prices,
link |
01:33:06.620
because prices are just the exchange ratios of things.
link |
01:33:11.020
So the smarter we can solve problems,
link |
01:33:12.980
the better we can solve problems, the less prices would be.
link |
01:33:15.900
So it induces more cooperation.
link |
01:33:18.820
I love how you tie inflation and cancel culture together
link |
01:33:21.660
as essentially artificial creation of increase of conflict.
link |
01:33:28.380
Artificially increasing scarcity
link |
01:33:30.420
and thereby artificially increasing conflict.
link |
01:33:33.300
That's really fascinating.
link |
01:33:35.820
You're short circuiting my brain
link |
01:33:38.460
many times throughout this conversation.
link |
01:33:40.500
Okay, this robot is struggling to keep up.
link |
01:33:45.340
Okay, maybe to step back at the useful fictions
link |
01:33:50.860
or pragmatic truths.
link |
01:33:53.860
Let me ask the question that you've answered
link |
01:33:56.180
in many ways already, but let's explicitly look at.
link |
01:34:00.260
What is money?
link |
01:34:01.900
Oh, as you know, that's my favorite question.
link |
01:34:04.060
Yes.
link |
01:34:07.500
Is the name of the show I just launched,
link |
01:34:09.940
the What is Money show?
link |
01:34:13.420
Clearly, we could say that the Bitcoin rabbit hole
link |
01:34:16.980
is what's led me to explore a lot of these ideas in depth.
link |
01:34:22.180
And I think as we've demonstrated today,
link |
01:34:23.860
it goes well beyond just the economic sphere
link |
01:34:26.660
when you start to think about things like exchange
link |
01:34:28.780
and morality and time preference and civilization.
link |
01:34:33.140
So I love the question, what is money?
link |
01:34:35.980
I think it is the key to incepting a deeper understanding
link |
01:34:40.340
of the world into people that if you actually
link |
01:34:42.260
just start to ask the seemingly simple question,
link |
01:34:47.220
it surfaces more and more layers of truth.
link |
01:34:51.420
And I recently, I just wrote a piece,
link |
01:34:55.820
I think I have 30 something answers to this question.
link |
01:34:59.780
So there's.
link |
01:35:00.620
So sometimes it's actually a more systematic way
link |
01:35:03.340
of asking the question of what is the meaning of life?
link |
01:35:06.540
There's some questions that are almost unanswerable,
link |
01:35:11.180
but in their asking allow you to deeply get closer to truth,
link |
01:35:17.540
deeply understand the nature of our human existence.
link |
01:35:21.420
And the meaning of life is almost like
link |
01:35:23.020
this initial philosophers striving towards that.
link |
01:35:28.020
If money is indeed as fundamental as you've described,
link |
01:35:34.540
especially in the context of value being fundamental,
link |
01:35:38.140
then that is a really, that's a more,
link |
01:35:40.380
let's take a 21st century way of asking the same question
link |
01:35:43.140
about what is the meaning of life.
link |
01:35:45.060
You mentioned that it's a meta property
link |
01:35:47.740
out of the list of many ways to answer that question.
link |
01:35:51.080
How would you help people to think about that?
link |
01:35:53.260
Yeah, the first most serious answer
link |
01:35:58.620
comes from the school of Austrian economics
link |
01:36:01.440
and it defines money as a universal medium of exchange.
link |
01:36:06.500
So this would be any good that is used,
link |
01:36:12.540
held and used purely for purposes of facilitating exchange.
link |
01:36:17.540
So in the configuration of demand for any particular asset,
link |
01:36:23.860
it's bifurcated between its utility,
link |
01:36:26.780
which is something a service
link |
01:36:28.220
that it can render to you in real time,
link |
01:36:31.020
whether it's, if it's water, you're thirsty,
link |
01:36:35.060
that's the utility of water is that it can quench your thirst
link |
01:36:39.080
whereas the marketability would be the expectation
link |
01:36:41.900
of future exchange that other people would want this asset
link |
01:36:44.980
in the future to trade it for whatever they may have.
link |
01:36:49.180
Money is just going to be the good in any trading economy
link |
01:36:53.660
that has the highest proportion of marketability
link |
01:36:56.020
relative to utility.
link |
01:36:57.900
So today that would be gold.
link |
01:37:00.580
Gold has utility, it's used in electronics,
link |
01:37:03.460
it's used in dental dentistry and whatnot,
link |
01:37:06.540
but it's largely used as a store of value across time
link |
01:37:09.920
and that's what it's been used for for 5,000 years.
link |
01:37:12.200
So if we say gold has a $10 trillion market cap,
link |
01:37:16.700
maybe 2 trillion of that is its utility value
link |
01:37:19.380
or it's actually demand for use in computers and dentistry
link |
01:37:22.620
and an 8 trillion of that is demand
link |
01:37:24.500
for its use as a store of value.
link |
01:37:28.500
Money, the marketability aspects of money
link |
01:37:32.540
boils down to five services that money can render.
link |
01:37:36.780
Money needs to be divisible, it needs to be durable,
link |
01:37:40.340
it needs to be recognizable, it needs to be portable
link |
01:37:42.820
and it needs to be scarce.
link |
01:37:45.640
So I'll gloss over a lot of history with this
link |
01:37:47.240
and just say that historically,
link |
01:37:50.040
money's always been a technology,
link |
01:37:51.920
still is a technology or a tool.
link |
01:37:53.700
I use these terms interchangeably
link |
01:37:55.180
and you think of a technology
link |
01:37:56.780
as just a more sophisticated tool effectively.
link |
01:38:02.620
To best satisfy those properties,
link |
01:38:03.980
monetary metals were determined
link |
01:38:05.620
to be the most satisfactory tool,
link |
01:38:08.340
the most divisible, most durable, most recognizable,
link |
01:38:10.060
most portable tool in the marketplace.
link |
01:38:13.180
Of the monetary metals, gold was the most scarce
link |
01:38:17.060
as quantified by either its stock to flow ratio
link |
01:38:20.620
or its inflation resistance.
link |
01:38:22.280
So simple way to say this is that people always prefer
link |
01:38:25.580
the money most resistant to inflation.
link |
01:38:27.980
That's a nice definition of scarcity in the context.
link |
01:38:30.780
The money is, if you were to measure it,
link |
01:38:34.020
the resistance to inflation.
link |
01:38:36.180
So how hard is it to artificially increase
link |
01:38:38.340
the supply of the thing?
link |
01:38:39.980
That is the hardness of money.
link |
01:38:41.860
And that's why gold is hard money.
link |
01:38:43.420
Because the alchemy is hard.
link |
01:38:44.900
That's right.
link |
01:38:46.140
Because no one cracked the alchemy.
link |
01:38:47.300
So gold became money.
link |
01:38:49.820
So that's such a nice clean explanation of what is money
link |
01:38:56.180
with the five elements and gold ultimately won out
link |
01:38:59.340
because of the last piece of scarcity.
link |
01:39:01.740
That's right.
link |
01:39:02.580
And to get to maybe dig a little deeper there.
link |
01:39:04.660
So scarcity, we commonly think of scarcity
link |
01:39:08.460
as strictly a supply property,
link |
01:39:12.460
where if there's not much of something, then it's scarce.
link |
01:39:15.260
But it's not actually true.
link |
01:39:16.580
Scarcity occurs when demand exceeds supply.
link |
01:39:20.780
So when there's more demand than the supply can justify,
link |
01:39:24.380
the thing becomes an economic good
link |
01:39:26.300
and it establishes itself a market price.
link |
01:39:30.060
So there's more demand for the thing
link |
01:39:31.560
than the supply can satisfy.
link |
01:39:33.780
The unique thing about money as a concept at least
link |
01:39:37.060
is that demand always exceeds supply.
link |
01:39:40.780
There's never enough money to satisfy everyone, right?
link |
01:39:43.500
Because another definition for money,
link |
01:39:46.380
it's the most marketable good.
link |
01:39:48.580
So it can be traded for any other good service,
link |
01:39:53.080
piece of knowledge in the marketplace.
link |
01:39:55.140
So humans being what we are, we're never satisfied, right?
link |
01:39:58.220
We always want more of something, whatever it may be.
link |
01:40:01.220
So money as the ultimate token of obtaining that something
link |
01:40:04.980
is always scarce as a concept.
link |
01:40:09.020
But the problem with money is that if you can,
link |
01:40:12.580
as you alluded to, easily increase its supply,
link |
01:40:15.500
then all of a sudden you can compromise
link |
01:40:17.060
the scarcity of it over time
link |
01:40:19.980
and you can rob people through inflation.
link |
01:40:23.220
So that's why the market settled on gold as money.
link |
01:40:26.580
And robbing is reallocating the value that I,
link |
01:40:31.500
so essentially the one property, like why scarcity
link |
01:40:36.580
is important is it adds a lot more friction
link |
01:40:40.880
to the reallocation, like through essentially violence
link |
01:40:47.460
or implied violence.
link |
01:40:48.900
Well, it prevents it through cost of extraction too.
link |
01:40:51.380
So if you want to go out and dilute gold holders today,
link |
01:40:54.460
you have to go out into the world and mine gold.
link |
01:40:57.420
It's a very expensive process.
link |
01:40:59.720
That process tends to find equilibrium
link |
01:41:02.700
where production cost equals the market value of gold.
link |
01:41:05.180
So if market value is $2,000 an ounce today of gold,
link |
01:41:08.500
its production cost is going to be around there.
link |
01:41:10.960
That's the natural market equilibrium.
link |
01:41:12.420
So that way gold miners cannot just dilute people over time.
link |
01:41:16.820
Whereas if you look at something like fiat currency,
link |
01:41:19.700
which we're jumping ahead a little bit,
link |
01:41:21.180
but its production cost is zero.
link |
01:41:23.860
So there's a reason the market value of fiat currency
link |
01:41:26.540
historically has always converged to zero
link |
01:41:29.500
because its production cost is near zero.
link |
01:41:31.500
So the extension to that question might be
link |
01:41:34.060
how did we get from gold to paper currency?
link |
01:41:37.700
And again, this is rooted in the properties of money.
link |
01:41:41.620
As good as monetary metals were
link |
01:41:43.140
and as good as gold is as money at holding value across time,
link |
01:41:47.660
it's rather limited in terms of portability.
link |
01:41:50.740
It is not as useful for moving value across space.
link |
01:41:54.100
This is another definition of money, by the way,
link |
01:41:55.820
a social device for moving value across space and time.
link |
01:42:00.340
So to rectify this technological shortcoming of gold,
link |
01:42:04.820
we introduced, first of all,
link |
01:42:08.180
the custody of gold was gradually centralized
link |
01:42:10.900
into fewer and fewer warehousing operations.
link |
01:42:15.580
This is because there are economies of scale
link |
01:42:17.780
associated with using gold as money.
link |
01:42:20.980
And that if you centralize the custody,
link |
01:42:23.120
the warehouse owner can then issue a paper receipt
link |
01:42:26.460
called a warehouse receipt for that gold.
link |
01:42:28.540
And then market participants can trade that paper
link |
01:42:31.100
as if it's good as gold.
link |
01:42:32.500
And everyone has an option at any time
link |
01:42:34.160
to go and redeem real gold from the warehouse.
link |
01:42:36.860
So that system works until the problem with it
link |
01:42:40.740
is that it introduces the need to trust the custodian.
link |
01:42:44.120
So it's introducing counterparty risk
link |
01:42:45.820
in the form of the custodian.
link |
01:42:47.660
And now should that warehouse choose
link |
01:42:50.240
to increase the supply of paper notes to gold
link |
01:42:54.140
beyond its supply.
link |
01:42:55.420
So if it's got three tons of gold
link |
01:42:57.580
and it issues six tons worth of paper receipts,
link |
01:43:00.900
all of a sudden it's participating in a fraud.
link |
01:43:03.440
It's basically lying.
link |
01:43:04.520
It's representing that it has more gold
link |
01:43:06.140
than it actually does.
link |
01:43:08.900
And that is the pathway that we got into banking
link |
01:43:12.780
and central banking,
link |
01:43:14.000
is we needed a convenience mechanism
link |
01:43:16.540
to rectify the portability shortcomings of gold.
link |
01:43:19.460
We needed to be able to move value across space, right?
link |
01:43:22.180
Gold was doing a great job at moving value over time,
link |
01:43:24.660
but not space.
link |
01:43:26.020
Paper currency gave us the ability
link |
01:43:27.380
to move value across space,
link |
01:43:29.140
but it introduced this attack vector
link |
01:43:31.560
for warehouse operators, which became banks,
link |
01:43:34.200
which became central banks,
link |
01:43:36.040
to modify the supply to suit their own political agendas.
link |
01:43:39.980
Added the snooze button.
link |
01:43:42.380
That allows you to do a little fraud.
link |
01:43:45.900
To get something for nothing.
link |
01:43:47.300
Something, just a little bit at first.
link |
01:43:49.140
Just this one morning, just a little bit.
link |
01:43:53.500
I mean, I don't know if you can speak
link |
01:43:55.020
to the birth of fiat currency.
link |
01:44:00.140
Is there some interesting characteristics
link |
01:44:04.180
to those early steps that created it?
link |
01:44:07.580
Like, could it have been averted?
link |
01:44:09.940
Or is this the natural progression of governments?
link |
01:44:14.940
You know, what's funny is that central banking
link |
01:44:18.240
was initially designed to be the custodian of gold, right?
link |
01:44:22.560
And so they were going to custody the gold,
link |
01:44:25.640
issue paper on top of it,
link |
01:44:28.800
and then they would maintain,
link |
01:44:30.560
you could trust the public stamp effectively.
link |
01:44:32.560
You could trust that the central bank
link |
01:44:33.840
had as much gold on reserve as they said they had,
link |
01:44:36.480
and they were supposed to be the trustworthy institution.
link |
01:44:38.360
So we went from placing our trust
link |
01:44:41.160
in a free market game theoretic process,
link |
01:44:43.800
or trusting gold,
link |
01:44:45.960
and we began trusting this institution instead.
link |
01:44:50.880
This, that institution would not have arisen
link |
01:44:54.440
if the portability of gold was really high.
link |
01:44:58.160
If we could have somehow sent gold
link |
01:45:00.380
across a telecommunications channel,
link |
01:45:02.320
there would have been no need for a central bank.
link |
01:45:05.080
Everyone could have custodyed their gold
link |
01:45:07.560
in any information bearing medium, frankly,
link |
01:45:10.760
and they could beam it around the world at any time.
link |
01:45:13.760
So this whole institution itself
link |
01:45:16.920
is rooted in a technological shortcoming of gold.
link |
01:45:21.080
So I think it's, another way to think about that
link |
01:45:24.160
is maybe had there been all the gold in the world today
link |
01:45:28.600
fills two Olympic sized swimming pools,
link |
01:45:31.000
all the gold mined throughout all of human history.
link |
01:45:32.960
So there's not a lot, right?
link |
01:45:36.000
What if there had been just like way more?
link |
01:45:38.760
There'd just been, I don't know,
link |
01:45:39.600
20,000 Olympic swimming pools worth.
link |
01:45:41.840
Portability wouldn't have been as much of an issue, right?
link |
01:45:45.280
We could have, and this is to say,
link |
01:45:46.960
assuming gold was still the most scarce metal
link |
01:45:48.920
and all these things,
link |
01:45:52.100
portability would have been less of an issue.
link |
01:45:53.440
We would have had less dependence
link |
01:45:55.960
or need for a central bank.
link |
01:45:57.960
So I think it's kind of idiosyncratic
link |
01:46:00.200
in that we just happened to end up here on this planet
link |
01:46:03.720
with a certain amount of gold.
link |
01:46:05.120
It best satisfied the properties of money.
link |
01:46:07.400
And a certain amount of humans,
link |
01:46:08.920
a geographic dispersed such that portability
link |
01:46:12.120
had certain properties that you want to achieve
link |
01:46:14.280
for humans in the geographical space
link |
01:46:16.080
to be able to be a exchange value.
link |
01:46:18.720
It became more of an issue as we globalized, right?
link |
01:46:20.920
As we became more of a global society,
link |
01:46:22.560
we needed money that could move across space really fast.
link |
01:46:26.440
So we could trade in international capital markets.
link |
01:46:29.620
So that drove the central bank
link |
01:46:33.520
to become the dominant institution of the world.
link |
01:46:35.680
And if you follow the flows of gold throughout history,
link |
01:46:39.080
you know, I've been watching this documentary
link |
01:46:41.200
on World War I and World War II on Netflix.
link |
01:46:43.640
I think it's called World War II in Color.
link |
01:46:45.840
Oh yeah, that's really good.
link |
01:46:47.680
So good.
link |
01:46:50.640
When I say gold has been the governor of governments
link |
01:46:53.480
or gold is geopolitical money,
link |
01:46:55.080
like it is the base layer operating system,
link |
01:46:59.140
has been the base layer operating system for analog society.
link |
01:47:02.120
So it's always been about who controls the gold,
link |
01:47:05.680
is who makes the rules.
link |
01:47:07.760
And that's, in that context,
link |
01:47:11.200
is why Bitcoin is so interesting
link |
01:47:12.720
because it is the disruptor to
link |
01:47:16.280
this base level operating system
link |
01:47:18.840
that's functioned for all of human history.
link |
01:47:22.040
I think this is a good place to ask,
link |
01:47:24.440
we asked the what is money question.
link |
01:47:27.880
What is Bitcoin?
link |
01:47:29.100
That's a question as complicated as what is money?
link |
01:47:35.120
I think if you get a general understanding of money
link |
01:47:39.160
from a number of angles,
link |
01:47:42.800
that we could say Bitcoin is the most superior
link |
01:47:47.880
monetary technology that has ever existed.
link |
01:47:51.560
So one of the most superior implementation
link |
01:47:54.760
of the ideas of money that you talked about,
link |
01:47:56.720
you talked about money as speech,
link |
01:47:58.320
you talked about money as an idea,
link |
01:48:01.000
we talked about money as sovereignty.
link |
01:48:04.040
Yeah.
link |
01:48:04.880
So we're attaching the concept of money, to your point,
link |
01:48:08.160
to whatever tool best satisfies those properties of money
link |
01:48:13.760
or best renders those services we need for money.
link |
01:48:16.840
And as you said, you're using the word tool
link |
01:48:19.320
and technology interchangeably here.
link |
01:48:20.720
Yes, yes.
link |
01:48:22.300
And another thing to think about here is that
link |
01:48:24.820
we think often in terms of goods or services,
link |
01:48:28.480
but actually everything is a service.
link |
01:48:31.880
So it's not the physical properties of this pen
link |
01:48:35.520
that I find valuable,
link |
01:48:36.800
it's the services that it renders to me,
link |
01:48:38.800
that I want to write a letter,
link |
01:48:40.460
this serves me by allowing me to lay ink on paper
link |
01:48:45.800
and communicate information.
link |
01:48:47.880
So value, humans attach value as we alluded to earlier,
link |
01:48:52.880
two services, not goods.
link |
01:48:55.520
So the properties or the services that money renders
link |
01:48:58.080
that human beings value are those five properties,
link |
01:49:00.760
divisibility, durability,
link |
01:49:01.920
recognizability, portability, scarcity.
link |
01:49:05.200
Metals best satisfied those services historically,
link |
01:49:09.280
but Bitcoin as the most superior monetary technology
link |
01:49:12.280
in human history, essentially perfects them.
link |
01:49:16.640
It's as close to perfection as we've ever been.
link |
01:49:18.400
So in terms of divisibility,
link |
01:49:21.040
each Bitcoin can be broken down into 100 million subunits
link |
01:49:25.120
called a satoshi.
link |
01:49:29.240
If that divisibility were ever a problem,
link |
01:49:31.480
which actually there was a question that came up recently,
link |
01:49:35.120
if you divide the world population
link |
01:49:37.440
by the total supply of Bitcoin,
link |
01:49:38.760
you end up at like 0.3 Bitcoin per person,
link |
01:49:42.000
call it 300,000 satoshis per person.
link |
01:49:46.060
What if that was not enough to facilitate economic activity?
link |
01:49:50.560
And the answer to that is Bitcoin can soft fork
link |
01:49:53.200
into further divisibility.
link |
01:49:54.560
So if Bitcoin ate all the money in the world
link |
01:49:58.120
and the average Bitcoin or wealth
link |
01:50:00.480
will say 300,000 satoshis each,
link |
01:50:02.080
but that wasn't divisible enough maybe to buy coffee
link |
01:50:06.160
and do all these day to day transactions,
link |
01:50:07.560
what would happen?
link |
01:50:08.400
Well, we would increase its divisibility.
link |
01:50:09.800
So Bitcoin's perfected divisibility,
link |
01:50:12.480
the divisibility of money,
link |
01:50:13.820
lets us transact across scales, right?
link |
01:50:16.440
We can buy coffee or we can buy a house.
link |
01:50:21.240
Durability is an interesting one.
link |
01:50:23.160
So clearly something like gold is very durable.
link |
01:50:25.400
It's resistant to degradation over time.
link |
01:50:28.280
Bitcoin is just pure information,
link |
01:50:30.280
but it's stored in a distributed format.
link |
01:50:33.540
So information stored in a distributed fashion
link |
01:50:37.000
tends to be virtually infinitely durable.
link |
01:50:40.840
The example I'd like to give here
link |
01:50:41.800
is something like the Bible.
link |
01:50:43.600
The Bible is just distributed information.
link |
01:50:46.100
It's stored everywhere and nowhere, so to speak.
link |
01:50:49.240
And for that reason, it has outlasted empires.
link |
01:50:53.160
And Bitcoin's similar, right?
link |
01:50:54.360
You can't make changes to it unilaterally.
link |
01:50:57.080
But to make explicit the ways in which it is not durable
link |
01:51:01.960
is the fact that it relies on computing infrastructure.
link |
01:51:05.440
Like it needs computers.
link |
01:51:08.360
So if you were to destroy all the computers in the world,
link |
01:51:11.160
it needs mechanisms that store and transfer information.
link |
01:51:17.620
And so you could attack it.
link |
01:51:20.100
I mean, you could attack gold in the same kind of way,
link |
01:51:22.100
I suppose, through the physics,
link |
01:51:23.800
but it's probably easier to destroy
link |
01:51:26.260
all the computers in the world
link |
01:51:27.380
than it is to destroy all the gold in the world.
link |
01:51:30.300
Maybe not, I don't know.
link |
01:51:32.340
Anyway.
link |
01:51:33.660
Yeah, you're right.
link |
01:51:35.660
Maybe, I'm not sure which one would be harder to destroy.
link |
01:51:38.480
The other thing is there's a dynamic incentive.
link |
01:51:41.900
So every time you destroy Bitcoin miners,
link |
01:51:44.820
you're creating incentives for anyone else
link |
01:51:46.580
with access to electricity to mine
link |
01:51:48.900
because you're making the algorithm easier.
link |
01:51:50.700
Yeah, so the destruction is difficult
link |
01:51:54.100
because of the decentralized nature of the whole thing.
link |
01:51:56.580
And the difficulty adjustment.
link |
01:51:57.900
Yeah, so you're gonna have to use nuclear weapons
link |
01:52:00.480
and cover the whole globe, but anyway.
link |
01:52:02.620
Yeah, and by then,
link |
01:52:03.860
we've got much bigger problems than money, right?
link |
01:52:06.020
That's right, so okay, so that's durability.
link |
01:52:09.660
So portability, Bitcoin's pure information,
link |
01:52:12.300
it can move at the speed of light,
link |
01:52:13.620
can't get much faster than that.
link |
01:52:15.900
Recognizability refers to the ability
link |
01:52:19.540
to verify the veracity of the money or its authenticity.
link |
01:52:23.360
So you can actually, when we used to transact gold,
link |
01:52:27.320
there were time honored techniques for verifying
link |
01:52:30.000
that it was gold and not gold plated lead, for instance.
link |
01:52:32.980
This is where we get the term sound money.
link |
01:52:34.860
A gold coin made a very particular sound
link |
01:52:36.760
when dropped from a certain height.
link |
01:52:38.620
You've seen people biting coins.
link |
01:52:40.220
These are all techniques for testing the authenticity of gold.
link |
01:52:44.100
And with Bitcoin, we have something unique
link |
01:52:46.440
in that if you're running a full node,
link |
01:52:48.300
you can verify that the Bitcoin is Bitcoin, right?
link |
01:52:51.180
It cannot be tampered with, it cannot be faked.
link |
01:52:54.880
And in addition to that, as a node operator,
link |
01:52:57.260
you can audit the total supply of Bitcoin at any time,
link |
01:53:00.000
which is unlike any money in history.
link |
01:53:01.560
So you know with full certainty,
link |
01:53:04.180
if you're holding 1000 Bitcoin,
link |
01:53:06.820
you have 1000 out of a possible 21 million forever.
link |
01:53:10.420
You have a guaranteed fraction of the total supply.
link |
01:53:13.040
Yeah, so a full node contains information
link |
01:53:14.740
about every transaction that's ever been had
link |
01:53:16.580
so you can figure out, yeah, I mean,
link |
01:53:19.180
all the truth of this money is all right there.
link |
01:53:23.840
Yeah, it's like a fractal constituent
link |
01:53:25.800
of the whole network, right?
link |
01:53:27.100
The whole Bitcoin blockchain is comprised in a node too.
link |
01:53:30.820
Not the proof of work piece,
link |
01:53:32.180
but the entire transaction history.
link |
01:53:34.380
And so that's unique as well.
link |
01:53:37.060
And that's what makes Bitcoin the ultimate store of value
link |
01:53:39.940
is that you know with certainty what the total supply is
link |
01:53:43.780
and will ever be.
link |
01:53:45.100
And you know that your share of that supply is fixed.
link |
01:53:49.440
It cannot change.
link |
01:53:50.460
It can only improve actually.
link |
01:53:51.860
If someone loses, you know,
link |
01:53:53.700
if the Satoshi stash is truly gone forever,
link |
01:53:56.020
the million Bitcoin never moves,
link |
01:53:58.000
then we're talking about 1000 Bitcoin
link |
01:53:59.960
out of 20 million instead and so on and so forth.
link |
01:54:03.140
As more people lose access to their Bitcoin,
link |
01:54:05.760
they're basically making a contribution to everyone else.
link |
01:54:08.060
It's anti dilutive.
link |
01:54:10.460
And there's certain properties of Bitcoin
link |
01:54:13.200
that are sort of a little bit more into the details
link |
01:54:15.500
that ensure that the full nodes,
link |
01:54:19.080
like the size of all the transactions that ever happened,
link |
01:54:22.860
at least currently can be stored
link |
01:54:24.340
in a single computer, for example.
link |
01:54:25.740
So it doesn't blow up too quickly.
link |
01:54:28.040
That's right.
link |
01:54:28.880
But you know, there's arguments that that's not necessarily,
link |
01:54:32.100
you can make arguments for that to be a very nice property,
link |
01:54:35.660
but you can also say that there's like drawbacks to it.
link |
01:54:38.260
That's hence the block size debates
link |
01:54:41.540
and all those kinds of things.
link |
01:54:42.500
Yeah, that was the Bitcoin Cash Civil War, right?
link |
01:54:45.300
Was that particular piece.
link |
01:54:47.580
Yeah.
link |
01:54:48.420
And, you know, ostensibly they were saying,
link |
01:54:50.780
oh, we need more transaction throughput
link |
01:54:52.840
to buy more coffee and do more transactions.
link |
01:54:55.380
But what they were actually doing
link |
01:54:57.520
was increasing the size computing power necessary
link |
01:55:01.900
to run a full node,
link |
01:55:03.060
which would have theoretically compromised decentralization.
link |
01:55:06.800
So yeah, but it would in theory,
link |
01:55:09.540
and this is, you know, in theory,
link |
01:55:11.660
it would allow you to have much more transactions.
link |
01:55:15.100
That's right.
link |
01:55:16.020
But the drawback, it would,
link |
01:55:18.540
because of no longer can be stored in a single computer,
link |
01:55:21.740
personal computer, then it naturally leads
link |
01:55:24.740
to the centralization.
link |
01:55:25.940
Yes.
link |
01:55:26.780
Which you see with gold.
link |
01:55:28.060
Which would have compromised its survivability.
link |
01:55:30.660
Right.
link |
01:55:31.780
So, I said, what else is there?
link |
01:55:34.300
The last one, which leads straight into this one,
link |
01:55:36.300
actually is the most important one of money,
link |
01:55:38.460
which is scarcity.
link |
01:55:40.020
And that you need to know the supply is fixed
link |
01:55:45.220
and safeguarded from counterfeiting and inflation,
link |
01:55:49.460
which counterfeiting and inflation are the same thing,
link |
01:55:52.620
by the way.
link |
01:55:53.740
Counterfeiting is criminalized inflation.
link |
01:55:57.460
Inflation is legalized counterfeiting.
link |
01:56:00.140
So central banks today,
link |
01:56:01.780
when they say they're printing money, they're not.
link |
01:56:03.220
They're counterfeiting currency.
link |
01:56:05.480
That's a very important part.
link |
01:56:07.140
And Bitcoin, as I've argued in some of my writing,
link |
01:56:11.380
is more than just an invention.
link |
01:56:13.540
It's actually the discovery of absolute scarcity.
link |
01:56:16.840
And that we have unveiled a property of money
link |
01:56:20.040
that we will only discover once, and it's got really
link |
01:56:25.460
major ramifications for the world at large.
link |
01:56:28.720
So with gold, for instance, as we've covered,
link |
01:56:33.660
it became money because it was the most relatively scarce
link |
01:56:36.980
monetary metal, right?
link |
01:56:37.980
Its supply was hardest to increase over time.
link |
01:56:41.100
However, if we could somehow flip a switch today
link |
01:56:44.180
and make everyone in the world go out and start mining gold,
link |
01:56:46.920
we could increase the supply much more quickly.
link |
01:56:49.100
We could, you know, it's historic inflation rates
link |
01:56:50.980
about 2%, we could double that pretty quickly.
link |
01:56:54.960
Bitcoin, with Bitcoin, it is not possible.
link |
01:56:58.580
So no matter how much effort and energy and capital
link |
01:57:02.500
and operational expenditure we pour into the mining network,
link |
01:57:05.540
we cannot deviate from its fixed
link |
01:57:08.300
and diminishing supply curve from between now
link |
01:57:11.000
and the last Bitcoin being mined in 2140
link |
01:57:13.620
because of the difficulty adjustment.
link |
01:57:15.020
It's constantly, it's adapting to human action actually.
link |
01:57:18.420
So the harder we pursue it, the more that it recedes,
link |
01:57:21.940
and then the less we pursue it,
link |
01:57:23.340
the more available it makes itself.
link |
01:57:26.020
And this is, it's a real major breakthrough
link |
01:57:30.300
because it's the closest thing to perfect information
link |
01:57:34.640
we've ever had in an economy.
link |
01:57:37.340
And perfect information is this, it's a theoretical,
link |
01:57:41.340
but unattainable state of the market where all market actors
link |
01:57:46.340
have all the relevant information about everything
link |
01:57:50.220
so that they can compete as efficiently as possible.
link |
01:57:53.100
And in a state of pure information, we have,
link |
01:57:56.060
I'm sorry, perfect information, we have perfect competition.
link |
01:57:59.020
And in perfect competition, we maximize wealth generation.
link |
01:58:03.140
So we're competing as freely as possible
link |
01:58:06.420
from coercive and violent impediments.
link |
01:58:10.140
And so I think Bitcoin in that sense
link |
01:58:13.220
is going to pull the world closer to a state
link |
01:58:17.900
of perfect competition than we've ever been before,
link |
01:58:21.720
which would increase wealth generation
link |
01:58:24.560
to an extent we've never seen before.
link |
01:58:27.540
Many of the things you said about Bitcoin
link |
01:58:30.460
also hold for other cryptocurrency technologies
link |
01:58:32.860
that followed after.
link |
01:58:36.120
Can you say something to why you think Bitcoin
link |
01:58:40.680
is the superior technology
link |
01:58:43.900
from a pragmatic truth perspective than say Ethereum,
link |
01:58:49.200
but also other crypto, like Bitcoin Cash,
link |
01:58:52.660
like other hard forks of Bitcoin,
link |
01:58:55.380
and maybe things that might yet to be invented,
link |
01:58:59.780
tools yet to be invented?
link |
01:59:01.420
Yeah, so this is a good point of argument
link |
01:59:05.100
because a lot of people have countered me and said,
link |
01:59:08.380
Bitcoin cannot be absolute scarcity
link |
01:59:11.260
because you can fork it and create something
link |
01:59:13.220
with the same properties as Bitcoin
link |
01:59:15.500
or potentially even better properties, right?
link |
01:59:17.700
You create something with a deflationary monetary policy.
link |
01:59:21.620
That's what Bitcoin Cash was actually.
link |
01:59:23.620
It forked Bitcoin with all of the same properties
link |
01:59:26.220
except for the block size that we alluded to earlier.
link |
01:59:29.260
The problem is that money is valued.
link |
01:59:33.020
Again, it's the good with a configuration of demand
link |
01:59:36.580
that is predominantly marketability.
link |
01:59:40.400
So it is valued based on its liquidity.
link |
01:59:43.560
That is how many other trading partners are there
link |
01:59:46.620
in that monetary network.
link |
01:59:48.780
So it is a network valued because of its liquidity
link |
01:59:53.420
and network effects.
link |
01:59:54.820
So any new entrant into the market for money
link |
01:59:59.180
is incentivized to always choose the money
link |
02:00:02.780
with the deepest liquidity and the most network effects.
link |
02:00:06.460
This is why money has tended to be a winner take all market
link |
02:00:10.540
because it's essentially a single purpose tool, right?
link |
02:00:13.480
It is a tool for,
link |
02:00:16.600
if we consider that tools are time saving devices, right?
link |
02:00:19.700
The shovel that you dig more holes per man hour
link |
02:00:21.680
than you can with your bare hands.
link |
02:00:23.180
Money is a tool, there's yet another definition of money
link |
02:00:26.280
that lets us calculate, negotiate
link |
02:00:28.580
and execute trades more quickly.
link |
02:00:31.540
So that function tends to coalesce
link |
02:00:36.180
towards one solution.
link |
02:00:38.500
And so the short answer would be that
link |
02:00:40.860
for the same reasons, quantifiable reasons, right?
link |
02:00:44.620
Like inflation resistance and liquidity and network effects
link |
02:00:48.500
that we have one analog gold,
link |
02:00:50.660
we're only likely to have one digital gold.
link |
02:00:53.540
And I think the Bitcoin Cash Fork
link |
02:00:55.500
proves that out empirically.
link |
02:00:57.220
It's a good case study because.
link |
02:00:59.540
Well, it's one case study, right?
link |
02:01:00.860
But okay, so that's really well put.
link |
02:01:02.980
So like gold was sticky.
link |
02:01:04.580
Once it was accepted, the network effects,
link |
02:01:08.460
the winner take all took over.
link |
02:01:11.020
And here's a fundamentally different kind of like
link |
02:01:15.380
analog versus digital is a leap in technologies.
link |
02:01:18.700
That's right.
link |
02:01:19.900
And you're suggesting that there may not be,
link |
02:01:25.340
there's unlikely to be other leaps of that kind
link |
02:01:29.100
into a whole nother kind of space of technologies.
link |
02:01:32.260
I would argue that Bitcoin,
link |
02:01:34.700
it's kind of like the ideological synthesis of gold,
link |
02:01:38.040
taking the monetary properties of gold
link |
02:01:39.380
and combining them with the internet itself.
link |
02:01:41.860
And in doing so,
link |
02:01:43.220
it has essentially perfected the properties of money, right?
link |
02:01:47.140
You can't get more divisible, durable, recognizable,
link |
02:01:49.700
portable, or scarce than Bitcoin.
link |
02:01:51.780
So Satoshi has kind of,
link |
02:01:54.260
he left no design space for a superior technology
link |
02:01:58.360
to intercede and out compete Bitcoin at this point.
link |
02:02:01.320
Now that it's established liquidity
link |
02:02:02.720
in the network effects. Far superior technology, right?
link |
02:02:04.740
Yeah, but it's a combination of the tech itself
link |
02:02:07.340
and the social layer that is coalesced to it.
link |
02:02:10.220
You can't separate those two out.
link |
02:02:11.740
Like they're all connected and then the political as well.
link |
02:02:15.020
I mean, but the portability, for example,
link |
02:02:17.460
that's another way to phrase that is the,
link |
02:02:20.060
what is it, the scaling.
link |
02:02:22.000
So the number of transactions,
link |
02:02:24.400
that's a limitation for Bitcoin
link |
02:02:27.080
that many argue is a feature, many argue is a bug.
link |
02:02:30.880
You have a bunch of cryptocurrency technologies
link |
02:02:33.500
that are able to achieve much higher,
link |
02:02:37.020
much faster frequency of transactions,
link |
02:02:40.420
much more transactions, you know, all that kind of stuff.
link |
02:02:44.700
What are your thoughts on that?
link |
02:02:47.380
You know, the low level of transactions
link |
02:02:49.660
that's possible with Bitcoin.
link |
02:02:51.760
Do you think that's a feature?
link |
02:02:52.880
Do you think that's a bug?
link |
02:02:54.500
Necessary for security actually.
link |
02:02:56.860
And even these other crypto assets that settle more quickly,
link |
02:03:00.280
they settle with less assurance of finality.
link |
02:03:03.660
So Nick Carter has a great piece on this actually called,
link |
02:03:07.080
the settlement assurance is stupid.
link |
02:03:09.260
It's really good where the gist of it is
link |
02:03:11.540
that there is more work being done in each block of Bitcoin
link |
02:03:16.780
that it can't, it is less vulnerable to reversion.
link |
02:03:20.700
So it's giving you higher degrees of assurance
link |
02:03:23.900
that your settlement or your trade has occurred
link |
02:03:26.040
with finality, whereas other blockchains
link |
02:03:28.540
are much more vulnerable.
link |
02:03:31.300
And again, with Bitcoin, the evolutionary path of money
link |
02:03:35.780
with gold is that it was first used as a collectible.
link |
02:03:40.600
It then became used as a store value.
link |
02:03:43.140
After it had stored enough value,
link |
02:03:44.740
it began to be used as a medium of exchange.
link |
02:03:48.740
And then finally, when it was used widely enough
link |
02:03:50.260
as a medium of exchange, it becomes a unit of account.
link |
02:03:52.580
We actually start to think in the money.
link |
02:03:54.940
Bitcoin's following a similar path.
link |
02:03:56.880
So started out as kind of a collectible.
link |
02:04:00.420
Today, I would argue it's a store value,
link |
02:04:02.260
one of the most effective store value we've ever seen.
link |
02:04:05.620
So that evolutionary path that Bitcoin's following
link |
02:04:08.580
is similar to gold.
link |
02:04:10.260
First a collectible, today a store value.
link |
02:04:12.260
To be an effective store value,
link |
02:04:13.940
it has to optimize for supply cap.
link |
02:04:18.540
That has to be the first,
link |
02:04:19.900
and this is all Bitcoin really needs to do
link |
02:04:22.300
to be successful by the way.
link |
02:04:23.780
Exactly what it's been doing for 12 years,
link |
02:04:25.860
virtually flawlessly,
link |
02:04:27.420
which is keep creating a block every 10 minutes
link |
02:04:30.340
and keep enforcing a supply cap of 21 million.
link |
02:04:34.020
As long as those two things hold,
link |
02:04:36.880
it is sound money, the ultimate sound money,
link |
02:04:40.620
the most inflation resistant money there's ever been.
link |
02:04:44.620
It's actually completely immune.
link |
02:04:47.800
It's taken unexpected inflation to 0%.
link |
02:04:50.340
We know with perfect certainty
link |
02:04:51.620
what Bitcoin supply will ever be.
link |
02:04:53.420
For it to be used more broadly as a medium of exchange,
link |
02:04:59.540
it can't make trade offs at the base layer
link |
02:05:02.260
to increase its portability for instance.
link |
02:05:05.340
Even though portability is maybe kind of a misnomer
link |
02:05:07.980
because Bitcoin has extremely high portability,
link |
02:05:10.620
just doesn't have extremely high transaction throughput.
link |
02:05:13.500
So we could say you can move it pretty quickly
link |
02:05:16.680
anywhere in the world
link |
02:05:17.520
as long as you're willing to bid up for the block space,
link |
02:05:20.980
but you can't satisfy all the world's economic volume.
link |
02:05:24.980
You can't do 300 million transactions per second
link |
02:05:27.100
like you can on a centralized database like Visa.
link |
02:05:30.700
But Bitcoin needs to be this,
link |
02:05:34.740
it has to be a store value first
link |
02:05:36.380
before it can be a medium of exchange.
link |
02:05:38.740
So it has to protect the supply cap first
link |
02:05:42.620
before making any trade offs for that.
link |
02:05:44.340
And I would argue that that's why Bitcoin is so rigid,
link |
02:05:48.340
is that it's optimized for survivability
link |
02:05:50.140
and optimized for that supply cap.
link |
02:05:51.720
And it's pushing experimentation and other features
link |
02:05:56.100
that would increase its transaction throughput
link |
02:05:57.760
to higher layers.
link |
02:05:59.420
So I think Lightning Network
link |
02:06:01.420
is something that's very interesting.
link |
02:06:03.460
It's still early,
link |
02:06:05.700
but there's a lot of throughput already being used
link |
02:06:08.660
on the Lightning Network.
link |
02:06:10.540
And it makes some slight trade offs
link |
02:06:14.260
in terms of the trust minimization of Bitcoin.
link |
02:06:16.060
You end up trusting these smart contracts
link |
02:06:18.180
instead of move the Bitcoin,
link |
02:06:19.500
but you pick up nearly unlimited transaction throughput.
link |
02:06:22.940
So that's how, and that's how biology evolves.
link |
02:06:25.620
That's how the internet evolved.
link |
02:06:26.780
It evolves in layers.
link |
02:06:27.860
So I think Bitcoin,
link |
02:06:29.960
you can sort of conceive of it
link |
02:06:31.020
as the latest layer to the internet.
link |
02:06:33.820
And it's one that preserves this store value property
link |
02:06:36.860
better than any asset we've ever had.
link |
02:06:38.920
Let me ask sort of a critical question of,
link |
02:06:41.820
if you're wrong about your statements about Bitcoin,
link |
02:06:46.060
and you find out years from now that you were wrong,
link |
02:06:51.860
what would that look like?
link |
02:06:54.020
What would be the things
link |
02:06:55.300
that make you realize you were wrong?
link |
02:06:57.520
Likely ideas or crazy out there ideas?
link |
02:07:01.320
Do you think about this kind of stuff?
link |
02:07:03.180
All the time.
link |
02:07:04.020
Because you speak very confidently about Bitcoin.
link |
02:07:08.480
And one of the things, let me put it this way.
link |
02:07:11.580
I think certainty,
link |
02:07:13.440
I feel like that's like a stoic statement.
link |
02:07:16.640
Certainty leads to ruin, something like that.
link |
02:07:19.800
Like certainty, I think is an antithesis to progress often.
link |
02:07:26.640
And especially in your writing,
link |
02:07:28.260
but this is true for the Bitcoin community.
link |
02:07:29.920
There's a certainty about the Bitcoin.
link |
02:07:34.960
And that makes me very skeptical,
link |
02:07:36.860
no matter how good the ideas are.
link |
02:07:38.880
Whenever things are good, this might be the Russian in me.
link |
02:07:42.220
I think like, what are the ways this is gonna go wrong?
link |
02:07:46.160
So what do you think are the ways this might go wrong
link |
02:07:48.800
or you're wrong in your conception of what Bitcoin is?
link |
02:07:53.040
Yeah, so science evolves via negativa,
link |
02:07:59.800
meaning that we're not proving hypotheses
link |
02:08:04.200
and that's what becomes the body of science.
link |
02:08:06.940
Science is whatever is left over as we disprove hypotheses.
link |
02:08:12.540
Whatever we can empirically, through experimentation,
link |
02:08:17.340
disprove, gets discarded.
link |
02:08:19.680
And whatever remains, whatever theory remains,
link |
02:08:23.180
it hasn't been disproven, is science, effectively.
link |
02:08:28.500
This process is similar to market actors zeroing in
link |
02:08:33.600
on a store value, right?
link |
02:08:35.620
They're experimenting with different forms
link |
02:08:37.760
of storing wealth across time.
link |
02:08:41.180
Some do better than others
link |
02:08:42.540
and eventually everyone ends up on the one that is best.
link |
02:08:45.540
That's what gold was.
link |
02:08:47.940
In terms of understanding Bitcoin,
link |
02:08:51.280
I look at it as a similar approach.
link |
02:08:53.460
And that is the main question I'm asking myself
link |
02:08:55.660
is how do you stop this thing?
link |
02:08:57.580
How do you turn it off?
link |
02:08:59.220
How do you end it?
link |
02:09:00.060
If you're a nation state, particularly,
link |
02:09:02.220
who has the most to lose in this transition,
link |
02:09:05.220
what is the attack vector by which they neutralize Bitcoin?
link |
02:09:08.500
I mean, that is the $250 trillion question.
link |
02:09:12.140
And I've spent five years thinking about this thing
link |
02:09:16.580
very deeply.
link |
02:09:17.420
I've read everything on monetary history.
link |
02:09:19.400
I can get my hands on.
link |
02:09:23.660
The general thought of how it is stopped,
link |
02:09:27.860
and this is the snag point that a lot of people get to
link |
02:09:31.300
in their explorations down the rabbit hole,
link |
02:09:32.820
is they just say the government will never allow it.
link |
02:09:35.180
And that becomes kind of their bottom.
link |
02:09:36.580
It's like, all right, Bitcoin's interesting,
link |
02:09:37.800
it's superior money, blah, blah, blah,
link |
02:09:39.140
but the government will never allow it.
link |
02:09:40.780
And they say.
link |
02:09:41.620
Was Ray Dalio, did he say that?
link |
02:09:43.340
Dalio was currently stuck there, yeah.
link |
02:09:45.800
So Ray Dalio said that Bitcoin seems to be too promising.
link |
02:09:52.580
If it is in fact as promising as it looks,
link |
02:09:56.740
governments are going to,
link |
02:09:59.260
I don't forget what the exact quote is,
link |
02:10:00.860
but not allowed.
link |
02:10:02.280
Ban it.
link |
02:10:03.660
Governments will ban it.
link |
02:10:05.300
So how do you get Ray Dalio unstuck from your perspective?
link |
02:10:09.940
Well.
link |
02:10:10.780
And how do you get unstuck from that idea
link |
02:10:12.740
that governments, will governments,
link |
02:10:14.860
how do you prevent governments from stopping a thing
link |
02:10:18.440
that threatens centralized power?
link |
02:10:22.580
Well, Bitcoin is an idea.
link |
02:10:26.060
So governments that are really good
link |
02:10:30.300
at fighting centralized threats to their power, right?
link |
02:10:35.060
Whether that's a currency counterfeiter
link |
02:10:36.700
or competing nation state or business they don't like,
link |
02:10:40.400
or an individual they don't like,
link |
02:10:42.500
you know, they can kill them, they can throw them in jail.
link |
02:10:44.940
They can use any number of course
link |
02:10:46.700
of a violent tactics to suppress it.
link |
02:10:49.300
But how do you point a gun at an idea?
link |
02:10:52.600
How do you coerce an idea?
link |
02:10:56.580
And that's, you know, there's some anecdotal history here
link |
02:11:03.400
where there's the PGP case, which in the United States,
link |
02:11:09.400
the court was trying to classify it as munitions.
link |
02:11:12.320
When we were shipping this
link |
02:11:13.920
pretty good privacy software overseas,
link |
02:11:17.920
government wanted to classify it as munitions
link |
02:11:19.440
and restrict that exportation.
link |
02:11:22.380
But, and this was a circuit court case precedent.
link |
02:11:25.320
When the PGP attorneys actually printed out the source code
link |
02:11:30.000
on paper and presented it as evidence in the court,
link |
02:11:33.560
all of a sudden it became protected under freedom of speech
link |
02:11:36.400
and that it's just code is speech, code is language.
link |
02:11:40.360
And therefore, at least in the United States,
link |
02:11:43.080
it's protected under the first amendment.
link |
02:11:47.920
I think a government ban would be largely unenforceable,
link |
02:11:52.760
frankly, on Bitcoin.
link |
02:11:54.560
Being that it's pure information,
link |
02:11:56.920
if you suppress market actors
link |
02:12:00.440
from using it in one jurisdiction,
link |
02:12:02.160
you're just creating incentives for them to go elsewhere.
link |
02:12:05.860
And you're actually increasing the incentive
link |
02:12:07.440
for other jurisdictions to be favorable towards it
link |
02:12:11.320
because then they can create,
link |
02:12:12.880
they get to benefit from the tax revenue
link |
02:12:14.480
and the businesses and the innovation
link |
02:12:16.400
that's occurring in and around Bitcoin as a result.
link |
02:12:19.360
So you don't think if a particular central bank,
link |
02:12:21.920
like in Europe or United States,
link |
02:12:25.040
bans it, not maybe using those terms,
link |
02:12:28.440
but in some kind of way,
link |
02:12:30.440
you think that provides a really strong incentive
link |
02:12:32.760
for the other big players to enable it.
link |
02:12:36.320
That's right.
link |
02:12:38.560
And that they're more likely, by the way,
link |
02:12:40.640
and governments know this, by the way, too.
link |
02:12:42.560
The other thing that causes a government
link |
02:12:46.160
to shoot itself in the foot is that if they ban something,
link |
02:12:48.320
they draw a lot of attention to it.
link |
02:12:50.520
People are smart.
link |
02:12:51.520
I mean, people ask why, why would a government ban it?
link |
02:12:53.920
Why can't I use this?
link |
02:12:55.220
So that's kind of typically be the last arrow
link |
02:12:57.640
in their quiver.
link |
02:12:59.760
They may try to ban it if Bitcoin
link |
02:13:02.280
really starts to monetize very quickly.
link |
02:13:04.080
And the power structures that they impose today
link |
02:13:06.640
start to dissolve faster than others might think they will,
link |
02:13:12.240
then they might try and ban it.
link |
02:13:13.440
But I think that ban will be largely unenforceable.
link |
02:13:17.760
They're more likely to tax it,
link |
02:13:19.480
which they already do tax it.
link |
02:13:21.480
They're likely to increase taxation of it.
link |
02:13:25.480
They're likely to try and make it more white market
link |
02:13:28.520
by actually tracing Bitcoin, seeing who has it,
link |
02:13:32.400
attaching identities to Bitcoin ownership,
link |
02:13:36.060
and making sure that they're getting their pound of flesh
link |
02:13:38.280
on all the transactions it results in.
link |
02:13:41.600
But I don't think, the other thing about this is,
link |
02:13:45.760
so we saw the internet outcompete intranets,
link |
02:13:53.000
in that we'd say that open source networks
link |
02:13:55.200
tend to outcompete closed source networks.
link |
02:13:57.100
And there's a really good reason for this.
link |
02:13:59.320
And it's because in a closed source network,
link |
02:14:03.520
there are costs associated with defending the network itself.
link |
02:14:08.180
So you have to, the network owners,
link |
02:14:12.180
the owners of the closed source network
link |
02:14:13.460
have to expend resources protecting it from competitors.
link |
02:14:17.560
And they have to expend resources imposing its rules
link |
02:14:21.000
because they're not voluntarily adopted rules.
link |
02:14:23.220
So you actually have to impose these rule sets.
link |
02:14:25.380
Whereas an open source network,
link |
02:14:26.880
which is something much more akin to capitalism
link |
02:14:29.160
in its pure sense, these are voluntarily adopted rules.
link |
02:14:33.000
So all market participants have agreed
link |
02:14:34.880
and consented to this rule set.
link |
02:14:36.720
So there's no enforcement costs
link |
02:14:38.400
and there's no turf protection
link |
02:14:39.620
because anyone can freely enter or exit the open network.
link |
02:14:43.000
For that energetic reason,
link |
02:14:45.020
I think open networks outcompete close networks typically.
link |
02:14:50.520
And in the digital age, that's why I think open,
link |
02:14:53.560
that's why internet outcompetes intranet
link |
02:14:55.200
and that's why open source networks
link |
02:14:57.240
are gonna eat closed source networks.
link |
02:14:58.840
So what Bitcoin would be in that lens
link |
02:15:01.180
is the ultimate open source monetary network
link |
02:15:04.220
devouring closed source central bank monetary networks.
link |
02:15:08.460
And I just don't see how there's no possibility
link |
02:15:14.280
of unilaterally stopping Bitcoin or destroying it.
link |
02:15:17.560
So then they're more likely to regulate or tax it.
link |
02:15:23.360
And again, the other fallacy here
link |
02:15:25.160
is that a lot of people tend to think of governments
link |
02:15:26.780
as these singular indivisible entities,
link |
02:15:30.760
like they just move under one plan.
link |
02:15:32.920
But in reality, it's a lot of people, right?
link |
02:15:34.960
A lot of people with loosely coupled interests
link |
02:15:36.880
and agendas and whatnot, regulators and others
link |
02:15:43.080
whether wearing their citizen hat,
link |
02:15:45.640
they're gonna see this thing monetizing,
link |
02:15:47.320
they're gonna be on the front lines
link |
02:15:48.640
of trying to regulate it, trying to control it.
link |
02:15:52.120
And I think what's likely to happen
link |
02:15:53.480
is they're gonna start to adopt it,
link |
02:15:55.600
to buy some of it even as an individual
link |
02:15:59.480
or possibly even ultimately at a central bank
link |
02:16:02.040
or sovereign wealth fund level,
link |
02:16:03.760
as an insurance policy against its success.
link |
02:16:07.200
And once you start to acquire something
link |
02:16:09.640
and then you have a vested economic interest
link |
02:16:12.760
in its monetization,
link |
02:16:14.360
I think it kind of dissolves any of the power structures
link |
02:16:17.560
that are arrayed against it from the inside.
link |
02:16:20.520
So I've written a lot about this
link |
02:16:22.720
in a new series called Sovereignism,
link |
02:16:24.480
which is based loosely on a book
link |
02:16:26.640
called The Sovereign Individual.
link |
02:16:28.760
And that's the general thesis
link |
02:16:30.240
is that microprocessing technology would devour
link |
02:16:34.080
our organizational models,
link |
02:16:35.780
the most important of which is the nation state.
link |
02:16:38.300
So I think we're going into this world
link |
02:16:39.960
where coercion and violence is just much less rewarding.
link |
02:16:47.600
The economics of violence are declining
link |
02:16:50.380
because of the low cost of protecting property, right?
link |
02:16:54.460
You can now protect your monetary property in Bitcoin
link |
02:16:59.460
at orders of magnitude less cost
link |
02:17:01.800
than is necessary to run a banking network.
link |
02:17:04.020
So it changes the way we organize ourselves.
link |
02:17:09.520
And again, zooming back to gold
link |
02:17:12.240
as kind of the original governor to governments,
link |
02:17:14.740
where if they manipulated the money,
link |
02:17:16.200
gold would leave their country.
link |
02:17:18.040
That's why governments have taken relatively concerted action
link |
02:17:23.180
to go off of the gold standard.
link |
02:17:25.320
There's a great book on this called The Gold Wars
link |
02:17:27.720
that outlines how governments have been waging
link |
02:17:32.120
a cold war against gold for the past 50 years.
link |
02:17:35.840
Bitcoin sort of renews hope
link |
02:17:39.240
for that free market governor of governments.
link |
02:17:41.600
And that is this digital gold
link |
02:17:42.860
that governments cannot stop or coopt.
link |
02:17:45.520
So I think it's something,
link |
02:17:47.680
that's why I think it's such a big deal
link |
02:17:49.480
is that it is changing,
link |
02:17:54.480
it's a new useful fiction, you might say.
link |
02:17:56.800
A useful fiction that's superordinate
link |
02:17:58.600
to the mythology of the nation state and government
link |
02:18:02.240
as the dominant institution in the world.
link |
02:18:04.240
Well, I hope you're right
link |
02:18:05.400
that all forms of centralized power
link |
02:18:10.400
start breaking apart naturally.
link |
02:18:12.660
So governments, the more and more power
link |
02:18:14.960
is given to the individual, whatever the technology is.
link |
02:18:18.400
And Bitcoin seems to be a promising technology
link |
02:18:20.720
that empowers that, enables that.
link |
02:18:22.880
That seems to be the trend.
link |
02:18:24.720
And that's a promising trend
link |
02:18:26.320
at least from a perspective of somebody
link |
02:18:29.120
who values this particular biological meat bag
link |
02:18:33.400
that's full of consciousness.
link |
02:18:34.800
I think Bitcoin is exposing the greatest scam
link |
02:18:37.680
in human history, which is political authority.
link |
02:18:40.720
Like who gives anyone the right to be politically,
link |
02:18:43.860
have political authority over anyone else?
link |
02:18:46.100
People should be free to adopt the rules
link |
02:18:49.040
and systems and tools that best suit their needs.
link |
02:18:52.040
And that arc of history we covered earlier
link |
02:18:56.180
where as socioeconomic systems have become more favorable
link |
02:19:01.920
towards individual sovereignty,
link |
02:19:03.440
the more wealthy we have become,
link |
02:19:06.120
the more we have given the individual,
link |
02:19:07.880
we've maximized individual choice,
link |
02:19:10.520
the more wealth that society has created
link |
02:19:12.440
and the more it has out competed
link |
02:19:14.460
the systems that have come before it.
link |
02:19:15.840
The latest would be capitalism triumphing over socialism.
link |
02:19:21.040
Before maybe we eat, you are in Texas,
link |
02:19:23.920
you brought over some brisket.
link |
02:19:25.720
Before we may be indulge in that,
link |
02:19:28.000
let me bring up one quick topic
link |
02:19:30.000
and then we'll take a break.
link |
02:19:31.680
And the topic of what some may term
link |
02:19:35.720
the toxicity of the Bitcoin community.
link |
02:19:40.480
You've written that Bitcoin toxicity is tough love.
link |
02:19:44.400
Do you wanna break that apart a little bit
link |
02:19:46.660
sort of the idea, the philosophy of the toxicity
link |
02:19:51.660
that seems to be present in part in the Bitcoin community?
link |
02:19:58.620
Yeah, we were talking about this a little bit
link |
02:20:01.380
before we recorded and I've been through the gauntlet
link |
02:20:04.780
with Bitcoin toxicity as well.
link |
02:20:07.580
I came into this space professionally in 2017.
link |
02:20:12.940
I was originally running a multi strategy
link |
02:20:15.000
crypto asset hedge fund.
link |
02:20:17.160
And my initial investment thesis on the world
link |
02:20:21.620
was that Bitcoin was a big deal,
link |
02:20:23.260
but there were all these other exciting coins
link |
02:20:25.220
and projects and ways the technology was going to be used.
link |
02:20:28.880
And that view of reality met this immune,
link |
02:20:35.420
I guess you could say as an ideological immune system,
link |
02:20:37.980
this Bitcoin toxicity and that it's kind of a filter
link |
02:20:40.940
that's trying to catch bad or useless
link |
02:20:45.460
or even scamming ideas that this space is very well known for.
link |
02:20:52.860
As we've touched on today, Bitcoin, in my opinion,
link |
02:20:55.180
is this world shattering innovation,
link |
02:20:57.940
but it's in a sea of the most scammy stuff ever, right?
link |
02:21:01.500
People, anybody can go and create a coin.
link |
02:21:05.460
So you can go and launch one immediately online
link |
02:21:09.480
and you can throw up a website, an advisor page,
link |
02:21:14.020
post a white paper talking about
link |
02:21:15.060
how great your technology is gonna be
link |
02:21:16.500
and how it's gonna change the world.
link |
02:21:17.640
And then you can raise $30 million in Bitcoin
link |
02:21:20.240
or Ethereum in 30 seconds kind of thing.
link |
02:21:22.660
So it's drawn in a lot of this scam artistry, you might say.
link |
02:21:27.500
And I think people living through that,
link |
02:21:31.180
because there is this natural predilection for people
link |
02:21:33.500
when they first come into Bitcoin, you're excited about it,
link |
02:21:35.920
then you get lost in the shit coin universe.
link |
02:21:39.460
And then just looking at the market success
link |
02:21:43.340
of Bitcoin versus, and when I use the word shit coin,
link |
02:21:46.060
I'm just.
link |
02:21:47.040
You say with all the love in the world.
link |
02:21:49.020
All the love in the world.
link |
02:21:50.660
I guess you could call me a toxic maximalist in some ways,
link |
02:21:53.180
although I consider myself a freedom maximalist,
link |
02:21:55.420
not a Bitcoin maximalist.
link |
02:21:56.260
Yeah, I saw that line, that's a good line.
link |
02:21:59.740
Bitcoin, tracking the market success of Bitcoin
link |
02:22:03.100
versus alternative crypto assets,
link |
02:22:06.300
the signal is very clear
link |
02:22:07.400
that Bitcoin has out competed all of them.
link |
02:22:09.480
So I think that Bitcoin cultural toxicity has evolved
link |
02:22:13.140
as an immune response to those bad ideas,
link |
02:22:15.620
which is actually, if you think about it,
link |
02:22:17.780
kind of is a tough love, right?
link |
02:22:19.100
You don't want new entrance to the space
link |
02:22:21.660
to get lost in shit coin jungle and learn the hard way,
link |
02:22:26.140
the way many Bitcoin maximalists have
link |
02:22:28.060
that the real innovation is Bitcoin.
link |
02:22:31.320
But like an immune system, I think it can also go too far.
link |
02:22:36.500
And so I think it's useful when it is defending the space
link |
02:22:40.840
from false narratives, we might say,
link |
02:22:43.460
but it becomes detrimental when it's attacking people
link |
02:22:48.180
that are inquiring about Bitcoin
link |
02:22:50.080
or people that are approaching Bitcoin
link |
02:22:52.240
with a good spirit and good intention
link |
02:22:54.860
and a desire to learn.
link |
02:22:57.420
Because then at that point,
link |
02:22:58.340
it's actually impeding the free flow of ideas,
link |
02:23:01.720
which the example in your clip
link |
02:23:04.580
that was totally taken out of context.
link |
02:23:06.500
And then you're literally just saying,
link |
02:23:07.940
I'm here to learn and contribute.
link |
02:23:09.240
I think I've got some stuff to do.
link |
02:23:10.780
And then people attack that.
link |
02:23:11.860
Like that doesn't make any fucking sense.
link |
02:23:13.900
It's like you're attacking someone who's approaching it
link |
02:23:16.140
in a good spirit and asking questions.
link |
02:23:18.380
Yeah, and I think sometimes talking about it,
link |
02:23:22.660
the toxicity in the Bitcoin community as an immune response
link |
02:23:26.440
has a negative effect of giving it a pass
link |
02:23:30.740
because like it almost says,
link |
02:23:32.620
look, it equates it with the human immune system,
link |
02:23:35.940
which seems to do a really good job.
link |
02:23:38.620
And so you could say that the toxicity has a lot of features
link |
02:23:42.500
in the sea of fraudulent projects
link |
02:23:47.780
that steal money from people.
link |
02:23:52.180
It's really useful to make sure
link |
02:23:53.860
that you give people the harsh truth
link |
02:23:56.420
about who is and isn't a scammer.
link |
02:24:00.020
You have to take it apart,
link |
02:24:02.260
take it away from that metaphor of the immune system
link |
02:24:04.460
and look at basic human nature.
link |
02:24:06.620
And human nature can go to some dark places,
link |
02:24:09.180
which is it's sad to say that some people,
link |
02:24:15.220
maybe many of us can enjoy for its own sake, the toxicity,
link |
02:24:21.060
the mockery, the derision,
link |
02:24:23.300
and you stop being part of the immune system
link |
02:24:27.940
that makes a successful idea propagate
link |
02:24:31.000
and start being a sort of a destructive virus yourself.
link |
02:24:35.120
And that's something I think about
link |
02:24:37.740
because I am new to this particular immune system,
link |
02:24:43.140
but I've explored other immune systems.
link |
02:24:45.980
And I think you understand this world much better than me,
link |
02:24:54.820
but I tend to prefer sort of love
link |
02:24:57.780
as a mechanism for spreading ideas,
link |
02:25:00.340
to err on the side of love and kindness
link |
02:25:06.220
and almost like an open mindedness
link |
02:25:09.300
in a way where you're constantly lowering yourself
link |
02:25:13.180
in the face of other ideas, constantly questioning yourself.
link |
02:25:17.820
But I think I understand that that might be more applicable
link |
02:25:24.180
in certain contexts,
link |
02:25:25.180
like maybe in the space of science or something like that.
link |
02:25:28.080
But in the space of Bitcoin, as it currently stands,
link |
02:25:31.260
there's so many people that are trying to scam others
link |
02:25:33.980
out of their money
link |
02:25:35.580
that the kind of harshness required is different.
link |
02:25:39.100
Nevertheless, I do want to put it on people like yourself
link |
02:25:45.060
and others who I know you wouldn't consider yourself this,
link |
02:25:48.180
but you're one of the faces or leaders in this space
link |
02:25:51.460
to call people out a little bit,
link |
02:25:53.660
to inspire them to be more loving, I suppose.
link |
02:25:57.220
But it's difficult,
link |
02:25:58.140
because you want to walk that line carefully.
link |
02:26:00.260
You don't want to be too loving and open minded,
link |
02:26:03.260
otherwise your brain falls out.
link |
02:26:04.540
I get it, it's a difficult balance to walk.
link |
02:26:06.980
It is subtle and it's nuanced and it is difficult to walk.
link |
02:26:11.140
And I think that, that's why I try to say tough love,
link |
02:26:14.220
because when we're young, we may have certain ideas
link |
02:26:19.220
about the way we want our life to go,
link |
02:26:21.620
but then maybe our parents
link |
02:26:22.980
are not letting us do certain things.
link |
02:26:25.300
And we think they're, I know when I was a kid,
link |
02:26:27.260
I wanted to get my, when I was in fifth grade,
link |
02:26:28.620
I wanted to get my ear pierced.
link |
02:26:30.220
My mom wouldn't let me do it.
link |
02:26:31.580
And I was, oh, come on, mom, I thought it was so cool.
link |
02:26:34.460
And then two years later, I'm like, thank you, mom,
link |
02:26:36.700
for letting me get my ear pierced.
link |
02:26:39.460
I think it comes from a place of good intention
link |
02:26:41.700
that they are actually,
link |
02:26:44.700
they have asked themselves that question, right?
link |
02:26:46.780
That they've been inquiring
link |
02:26:48.660
in why not this crypto asset or this crypto asset?
link |
02:26:51.940
And they've done the exploration,
link |
02:26:53.380
they keep coming back to Bitcoin
link |
02:26:54.940
and they've seen people being taken advantage of.
link |
02:26:59.580
But to your point, it's like it can,
link |
02:27:03.880
this tough love can become detrimental,
link |
02:27:06.780
just like the immune system can become detrimental, right?
link |
02:27:08.980
It can overreact and it can actually harm the human body.
link |
02:27:12.420
So I would say that it's such a tricky and nuanced topic
link |
02:27:16.220
that even biology hasn't figured it out, right?
link |
02:27:18.180
A lot of people have autoimmune diseases.
link |
02:27:21.980
And then there's the other thing
link |
02:27:22.820
that we have this natural, I agree with you about love.
link |
02:27:25.780
I think love is like the deepest value.
link |
02:27:28.660
That's a whole nother philosophical thing,
link |
02:27:30.540
but we're biologically programmed to pay more attention
link |
02:27:36.260
to things that are adversarial or harmful, right?
link |
02:27:38.860
That's part of us protecting the meat suit, so to speak.
link |
02:27:42.340
So there is some maybe better delivery method
link |
02:27:48.020
by being a little bit toxic to really get the point across,
link |
02:27:50.980
like, hey, don't get lost over here.
link |
02:27:53.580
These things can hurt you.
link |
02:27:55.580
Really try to focus on Bitcoin.
link |
02:27:57.140
But the toxicity of that message,
link |
02:27:59.620
I guess it increases its ability
link |
02:28:01.100
to penetrate the individual, but it can also go too far.
link |
02:28:04.140
So it is very...
link |
02:28:05.220
It's interesting, but I almost to push back a little bit,
link |
02:28:08.780
toxicity is a funny word.
link |
02:28:11.100
I think maybe another way to say it is,
link |
02:28:15.540
I brought up like Christopher Hitchens
link |
02:28:17.660
and somebody who like, okay,
link |
02:28:20.980
you might say he's toxic or something like that,
link |
02:28:23.660
because he's basically a intellectual powerhouse
link |
02:28:27.100
who's also a troll.
link |
02:28:28.740
So he's constantly, it's like guerrilla warfare
link |
02:28:31.140
in the space of ideas.
link |
02:28:33.340
He's very harsh in his disagreements and criticisms,
link |
02:28:37.020
but he's done with incredible grace and skill and poetry.
link |
02:28:42.260
So...
link |
02:28:43.180
We could use more of that.
link |
02:28:44.380
We could use more of that.
link |
02:28:45.780
So toxicity just like...
link |
02:28:52.540
These are just words.
link |
02:28:53.540
They can mean a lot of different things,
link |
02:28:55.180
but disagreement doesn't have to be done with love,
link |
02:28:59.940
but it should be done with skill if it's to be effective.
link |
02:29:04.340
So there's a lot of ways to be effective in guerrilla warfare,
link |
02:29:08.300
but you wanna learn how to shoot
link |
02:29:10.180
or whatever the weapon you're using and to do it well.
link |
02:29:12.820
Some people do it better than others.
link |
02:29:14.540
And it's worthwhile to learn to do it well.
link |
02:29:17.780
Again, I prefer love, but even love,
link |
02:29:21.180
just because you think you're communicating a good idea,
link |
02:29:25.420
which you very well may be,
link |
02:29:26.740
doesn't mean it also doesn't require skill
link |
02:29:28.820
to do the communication well,
link |
02:29:30.260
whether it's disagreement and harsh
link |
02:29:33.220
or more agreement and loving and so on.
link |
02:29:36.860
Yeah, I think very fundamentally that all of our decisions,
link |
02:29:41.860
we alluded to earlier that every decision
link |
02:29:44.500
is an expression of value, every action we take,
link |
02:29:47.100
they ultimately come from fear or love.
link |
02:29:49.380
Fear would be something much more in the biological domain
link |
02:29:53.660
where it's like, we're trying to protect ego,
link |
02:29:56.820
we're trying to behave selfishly.
link |
02:29:58.420
This is the domain of sin.
link |
02:30:01.260
I don't know all the sins, gluttony, greed, sloth, wrath,
link |
02:30:03.700
lust, pride, envy, these are all selfish behaviors.
link |
02:30:07.660
Whereas something like love,
link |
02:30:09.420
it's morally superior in that it's more selfless.
link |
02:30:14.420
I don't know that we can properly
link |
02:30:15.740
define love with words at all,
link |
02:30:17.020
but I would say maybe like selfless action
link |
02:30:19.660
could be kind of a generalization of it.
link |
02:30:22.620
And that way, it is really hard to your point.
link |
02:30:25.620
It's hard to love in a world that has a lot of conflict
link |
02:30:32.460
that might make you fearful
link |
02:30:34.500
if you're really focused on your meat suit.
link |
02:30:36.060
But if you're focused on the bigger picture
link |
02:30:37.780
and you're focused on others and legacy and life,
link |
02:30:40.900
that there is a way to do it.
link |
02:30:43.020
And that's why I actually think Christ,
link |
02:30:44.820
that is the highest moral aim, right?
link |
02:30:46.580
He met all of the vitriol in life,
link |
02:30:50.020
betrayal, hate, violence,
link |
02:30:52.540
he met it all with love and he met it with compassion.
link |
02:30:55.700
And that's why, regardless of if you believe
link |
02:30:58.220
that he actually lived or any of this,
link |
02:31:00.820
he is symbolic of the highest moral consciousness possible.
link |
02:31:05.820
And Carl Jung would say that that was a suitable
link |
02:31:09.540
alternative to psychoanalysis,
link |
02:31:12.340
was actually setting your moral aim higher
link |
02:31:14.740
and striving towards it diligently.
link |
02:31:16.940
So, I mean, I agree completely.
link |
02:31:20.180
We need more of that in the Bitcoin space.
link |
02:31:22.740
We need more of that in the world, frankly.
link |
02:31:24.140
In the world, yeah.
link |
02:31:24.980
And these things, they're all intertwined.
link |
02:31:28.100
We touched on the beginning, all of us get to decide,
link |
02:31:32.140
but the world does influence what we do.
link |
02:31:34.740
It does influence kind of if we adopt fear or love,
link |
02:31:39.860
but it takes, I don't know, it takes good systems
link |
02:31:42.100
and it takes, I guess, good leaders to set an example.
link |
02:31:45.420
Yeah, I do believe that there's like individual people
link |
02:31:48.860
can have a ripple effect.
link |
02:31:50.620
So that's what I try to do, sort of embody the,
link |
02:31:53.500
I'm just one ant.
link |
02:31:55.060
But one of the things I have faith in is,
link |
02:31:59.580
I'm trying to do that more.
link |
02:32:02.380
I know this is a podcast,
link |
02:32:04.620
but I'm trying to do less talking and more doing.
link |
02:32:10.820
I've been disappointed in myself, if I'm being honest,
link |
02:32:13.260
how much talking I've been doing,
link |
02:32:15.980
as opposed to, like in my own private life,
link |
02:32:20.140
I live the thing I talk about,
link |
02:32:22.100
but I also haven't created much.
link |
02:32:26.100
And I believe in the power of individuals that create stuff,
link |
02:32:30.660
like create an idea through those individuals
link |
02:32:33.460
that try to create something new, the world progresses.
link |
02:32:35.700
And hopefully there's more and more,
link |
02:32:37.100
more and more of those people.
link |
02:32:39.260
So you mentioned kind of people who,
link |
02:32:42.540
what the Bitcoin community might call scammers.
link |
02:32:48.220
I have a lot of passions in my life
link |
02:32:50.460
that I focus a lot of my attention to.
link |
02:32:54.340
Bitcoin doesn't happen to be yet one of them.
link |
02:32:59.340
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, you know.
link |
02:33:01.460
I'm always looking for things to really fall in love with.
link |
02:33:08.460
So how is a person like me supposed to figure out,
link |
02:33:13.780
I also happen to have a platform a little bit,
link |
02:33:16.300
and how am I supposed to figure out who is interesting,
link |
02:33:21.460
what is an interesting set of ideas and what are not?
link |
02:33:25.060
Because people are financially tied into
link |
02:33:27.220
a lot of the cryptocurrencies that we're talking about,
link |
02:33:29.900
certainly with Bitcoin, you know, their livelihood,
link |
02:33:33.740
their wellbeing is tied up to it.
link |
02:33:35.340
So it becomes much more emotional, much more personal.
link |
02:33:37.940
It's no longer purely an exploration of ideas.
link |
02:33:41.500
It's really almost like a threat on your property.
link |
02:33:44.060
Like it's a personal threat
link |
02:33:45.900
and it makes it very difficult to explore those ideas.
link |
02:33:47.940
So I understand that, but it makes it very difficult
link |
02:33:50.420
for somebody like me to just walk in and be curious.
link |
02:33:55.420
So how do I proceed in this difficult world
link |
02:33:59.540
in exploring this landscape
link |
02:34:02.100
and not give a platform to ideas that may harm others?
link |
02:34:10.700
I guess first I'd like to commend your forthrightness
link |
02:34:14.700
about this, because I don't think many people
link |
02:34:17.180
try to walk that line necessarily.
link |
02:34:18.980
People, again, kind of the territorial imperative,
link |
02:34:22.540
they'll put whoever on, they'll help expand their reach.
link |
02:34:25.780
Oh yeah, that's true.
link |
02:34:27.540
Or say whatever needs to be said to expand their reach.
link |
02:34:29.540
So I think you're coming from a good place.
link |
02:34:31.340
I'll say that.
link |
02:34:33.780
There's a great piece written
link |
02:34:36.020
on the topic of scammers and scamming.
link |
02:34:38.540
I think it was by Goldstein.
link |
02:34:40.140
He wrote a piece called, Everyone's a Scammer.
link |
02:34:42.460
And it's sort of back to this general human proclivity
link |
02:34:46.140
to try and get something for nothing always,
link |
02:34:48.540
which again, it can be positive,
link |
02:34:50.900
it can be innovative, or it can be a negative.
link |
02:34:52.980
You can be trying to steal from people.
link |
02:34:57.900
That might be, I think that's a useful piece
link |
02:34:59.940
just to kind of see the crypto world through that lens.
link |
02:35:03.300
And that's how Bitcoiners are thinking all the time.
link |
02:35:06.140
They are by nature adversarial thinkers.
link |
02:35:08.980
So they're trying to minimize the need for trust
link |
02:35:11.860
in any situation and maximize verification.
link |
02:35:14.700
As far as sifting through the ideas,
link |
02:35:18.860
I guess this is back where the cultural immune system
link |
02:35:23.860
has some utility.
link |
02:35:25.900
Because there were times when I thought
link |
02:35:28.100
this particular crypto asset,
link |
02:35:30.700
Augur was one I was really into,
link |
02:35:32.700
that it could facilitate prediction markets
link |
02:35:34.900
and prediction markets could make markets more efficient,
link |
02:35:38.020
et cetera, et cetera.
link |
02:35:39.140
But when that investment does get to the point
link |
02:35:43.460
when that investment thesis basically met
link |
02:35:45.940
the cultural filter or immune system,
link |
02:35:49.540
it forced me to reevaluate my position,
link |
02:35:51.740
forced me to really look into it more deeply.
link |
02:35:54.220
And through that exploration,
link |
02:35:55.900
I realized that it would need to be built on Bitcoin
link |
02:35:58.460
to work basically.
link |
02:35:59.940
So it really comes down to like you doing your homework,
link |
02:36:03.540
but we can't all deeply evaluate every idea out there.
link |
02:36:08.100
One of the things I struggle with was Alex Jones,
link |
02:36:11.460
for example, had dinner with him.
link |
02:36:16.420
I could tell that will be a very fun conversation,
link |
02:36:19.060
but like then I also understand that there's
link |
02:36:24.140
like consequences to that conversation
link |
02:36:27.820
that should be explored with care.
link |
02:36:30.700
And so you need to take on the responsibility
link |
02:36:34.060
of being a chef with the puffer fish
link |
02:36:35.780
and all those kinds of things.
link |
02:36:37.540
That said, just like you said,
link |
02:36:39.540
it's very difficult to know this ahead of time
link |
02:36:43.300
and I will probably make mistakes.
link |
02:36:46.620
And that's a shitty thing to have to live with
link |
02:36:49.860
that I'm going to make mistakes
link |
02:36:51.260
and some of them very large.
link |
02:36:52.900
Like, yeah, I mean, I can imagine a bunch of different ways,
link |
02:36:57.540
but all we can do in this world
link |
02:36:59.060
is once we make the mistakes,
link |
02:37:00.860
we acknowledge those mistakes and learn.
link |
02:37:04.980
And also, I have to put this on the rest of us
link |
02:37:09.740
that you don't take one thing that a person did
link |
02:37:15.260
and then burn them at the stake for it.
link |
02:37:17.860
That you realize that we all make mistakes,
link |
02:37:20.620
that a particular mistake does not make the person.
link |
02:37:23.220
And this applies to taking stuff out of context
link |
02:37:27.660
over hundreds of hours of talking,
link |
02:37:30.660
but it applies to actual, in context, big mistake.
link |
02:37:37.380
So what if I murdered somebody at some point?
link |
02:37:39.260
Just give me a break.
link |
02:37:40.100
No, there are some things that are too far, of course,
link |
02:37:42.340
but in general, we need to give each other a chance.
link |
02:37:47.140
Yeah, but I'm still,
link |
02:37:50.460
I walk with a heavy heart
link |
02:37:51.980
knowing that I'll probably make a mistake,
link |
02:37:54.180
especially one that I didn't mean to.
link |
02:37:56.540
That's the one that worries me most.
link |
02:37:58.340
This is human nature, like hamartia, to miss the mark.
link |
02:38:03.940
That's the root word of sin.
link |
02:38:05.500
We are sinful by nature.
link |
02:38:07.300
We can't help it.
link |
02:38:08.300
There's no way, again, pain is information, right?
link |
02:38:11.020
There's no way to learn other than trying, failing,
link |
02:38:15.460
learning, and then you put yourself in better formation,
link |
02:38:19.620
right, in formation to better deal with it next time.
link |
02:38:22.900
So I hope, I don't get the sense
link |
02:38:26.340
that you're actually afraid of making a misstep.
link |
02:38:30.580
I think you're just maybe disappointed's a better word.
link |
02:38:35.740
You know you're gonna make the mistakes.
link |
02:38:36.900
Yeah, that's exactly, that's a much, much better word.
link |
02:38:39.380
But we have to embrace that.
link |
02:38:41.100
That's the only way anything,
link |
02:38:42.260
that's the only way we can advance,
link |
02:38:43.880
is that we're dealing with an incomprehensible reality.
link |
02:38:46.660
All we can do is throw spaghetti at the wall
link |
02:38:48.460
and see what sticks.
link |
02:38:50.180
And in that process, we're all inherently gonna hurt
link |
02:38:53.020
ourselves and hurt others,
link |
02:38:54.100
and that's where love and forgiveness come into play, right?
link |
02:38:57.740
And yeah, I think the other thing is that this culture
link |
02:39:02.540
of reducing people down to a label, right,
link |
02:39:05.380
whether it's racism or whether you're calling them a scammer
link |
02:39:07.780
or any number of terms,
link |
02:39:11.060
you're discounting their sovereignty to zero, right?
link |
02:39:14.780
You're taking a super complex human that is vast,
link |
02:39:18.980
contains multitudes, is changing over time,
link |
02:39:21.880
and you're trying to put them in a bucket of a word.
link |
02:39:25.620
And that is just, I think, a cognitive fallacy.
link |
02:39:28.700
Like, it's not only gonna hurt the person
link |
02:39:30.540
that you're winnowing down to a word,
link |
02:39:32.980
it's also gonna hurt you.
link |
02:39:34.420
And it's gonna, in your attempt to decomplexify reality
link |
02:39:38.860
by assigning this person to a term,
link |
02:39:40.260
you're actually gonna create bad outcomes for yourself.
link |
02:39:42.880
Because you're not gonna understand that person.
link |
02:39:45.200
I do also think there's a failure
link |
02:39:46.900
of our social media technology that incentivizes
link |
02:39:50.640
that kind of reduction to a label.
link |
02:39:53.140
It's just the viral nature of that reduction.
link |
02:39:56.820
So not only do we humans naturally do that,
link |
02:40:01.140
our social media platforms make that easier, more fun,
link |
02:40:07.260
more effective to do that at scale, the mass hysteria.
link |
02:40:11.340
So I think there's actually technological ways
link |
02:40:15.580
of adding friction to that.
link |
02:40:18.180
Yeah, I wonder, I mean, I agree with you that it's,
link |
02:40:21.220
social media is an amplifier to our natural,
link |
02:40:24.920
this natural way of dealing with one another.
link |
02:40:27.180
But I wonder, and my thinking has evolved a lot on this,
link |
02:40:30.500
that there's something below
link |
02:40:32.380
the way we're treating each other too, right?
link |
02:40:35.100
We could say civilization sort of advances
link |
02:40:37.800
in the tools we make and the way we treat each other.
link |
02:40:40.100
We tend to have better tools, better quality of life,
link |
02:40:42.780
and better morality, better quality of living,
link |
02:40:46.260
and ways of dealing with one another.
link |
02:40:49.180
And I think that when you corrupt the money,
link |
02:40:53.540
that it really does push us the negative direction,
link |
02:40:56.580
pushes us away from, again, encouraging,
link |
02:41:02.300
or magnifying scarcity artificially
link |
02:41:05.580
causes us to be more divisive.
link |
02:41:07.480
When things are more divisive,
link |
02:41:08.660
we tend to be less civilized, less nuanced,
link |
02:41:11.620
more black or white, or this or that,
link |
02:41:14.480
or you're this, or you're label A or label B.
link |
02:41:17.980
So I really think, and this is a harder one to unravel,
link |
02:41:20.620
but I think if we can fix the money, right,
link |
02:41:24.020
which again is the base layer operating system
link |
02:41:26.900
for human moral action in the world,
link |
02:41:30.220
that it has downstream effects.
link |
02:41:32.580
So we'd actually maybe start to treat each other
link |
02:41:34.440
a little better on social media,
link |
02:41:36.320
despite the fact that it enables this faster communication.
link |
02:41:41.180
That's interesting, so perhaps fixing social media
link |
02:41:44.540
as I've been thinking about is treating the symptom,
link |
02:41:48.500
not the cause.
link |
02:41:49.620
Yeah, that is the Bitcoin rabbit hole in a nutshell,
link |
02:41:52.840
is that they say fix the money, fix the world.
link |
02:41:54.980
You keep tracing these different social malaises
link |
02:41:58.780
or technological difficulties, lack of innovation.
link |
02:42:03.820
Weinstein's entire Portal podcast,
link |
02:42:06.140
something went wrong in the early 70s.
link |
02:42:08.540
We went off the gold standard in 1971,
link |
02:42:11.220
and there's a great website, wtfhappat1971.com,
link |
02:42:15.980
goes through this whole gamut of socioeconomic data
link |
02:42:18.400
that's completely gone askew since the early 70s.
link |
02:42:22.860
Yeah, you had this whole video,
link |
02:42:24.540
what do you think about Eric Weinstein and Bitcoin
link |
02:42:29.460
and the gold standard?
link |
02:42:31.620
Does he, I actually haven't heard him talk about his thesis
link |
02:42:35.600
about the 70s in connection to the,
link |
02:42:39.620
going off of the gold standard.
link |
02:42:42.060
Yeah, what are your thoughts there?
link |
02:42:43.540
What are your thoughts about his general relationship
link |
02:42:46.060
with the Bitcoin idea and the community?
link |
02:42:49.740
Yeah, the first exposure I had to Eric was his,
link |
02:42:52.940
I think it was his first episode with Peter Thiel,
link |
02:42:55.420
and they're going through that thesis
link |
02:42:57.100
that there's been this general institutional rot
link |
02:43:00.980
and suppression of innovation since the early 70s,
link |
02:43:03.900
and he's trying to identify what it is.
link |
02:43:05.980
I don't think they ever pended on the money
link |
02:43:09.300
on going off the gold standard,
link |
02:43:11.260
but in recent interactions with Eric,
link |
02:43:14.580
I've interacted with him on Clubhouse.
link |
02:43:17.500
We recently released an episode of the show
link |
02:43:19.920
I did with Chris Espley,
link |
02:43:22.060
and it was titled Dear Eric Weinstein.
link |
02:43:24.260
So we're going through his worldview
link |
02:43:26.760
that he's expressed in the portal
link |
02:43:27.980
and tying it back to the money in different ways.
link |
02:43:31.780
And he's been, he's engaged.
link |
02:43:33.300
Eric retweeted the show.
link |
02:43:35.180
We've exchanged some messages.
link |
02:43:36.720
He's been very open minded.
link |
02:43:38.340
He's asked some really good questions.
link |
02:43:40.420
So I get the sense that he's approaching
link |
02:43:42.060
this very wholeheartedly.
link |
02:43:45.940
He does bring with him his existing worldview
link |
02:43:48.900
and his existing theory.
link |
02:43:50.260
The one that really blew up was gauge theory.
link |
02:43:52.140
They got really popular.
link |
02:43:53.300
I don't know a lot about gauge theory.
link |
02:43:54.820
I actually messaged Eric and said,
link |
02:43:56.680
I want to learn more genuinely,
link |
02:43:58.100
because he seems to be serious
link |
02:44:01.280
that that needs to be considered in the sphere of money.
link |
02:44:03.980
And so I want to learn more about it.
link |
02:44:06.780
But I think overall it's great.
link |
02:44:08.220
It's great to see an intellectual heavyweight
link |
02:44:10.860
of his caliber gravitating towards Bitcoin.
link |
02:44:14.700
Yeah, he has some gauge theoretic conceptions
link |
02:44:18.980
about the world broadly, but also about economics,
link |
02:44:23.900
which ultimately boils down to just a set of mathematics,
link |
02:44:27.140
which allows you to more effectively reason about the world.
link |
02:44:30.740
And he has a certain set of views there.
link |
02:44:33.700
So it's fascinating to see him grapple with it.
link |
02:44:37.140
I think he's also kind of actually kind of like all of us,
link |
02:44:42.360
grappling with the idea of what is Bitcoin in this world.
link |
02:44:45.800
It's a very young technology,
link |
02:44:47.700
and it's unclear exactly how the ideas of the past
link |
02:44:52.860
fit with it and integrate, how the two integrate together.
link |
02:44:57.480
And so it's interesting to explore,
link |
02:44:59.900
not just Bitcoin in the particular.
link |
02:45:01.460
So for me, like what I've always saw Bitcoin as
link |
02:45:06.820
from the beginning, from a narrow worldview
link |
02:45:11.060
is computer science, which is where I come from.
link |
02:45:14.500
And so I wasn't almost aware
link |
02:45:16.740
in the social, political, financial aspects of Bitcoin.
link |
02:45:21.660
But now I see that there's not just power,
link |
02:45:26.440
but there's fascinating ideas to explore on that side
link |
02:45:29.900
of things, not just the computer science,
link |
02:45:31.500
not just the technical details,
link |
02:45:33.820
but the political, the socioeconomic, the philosophical.
link |
02:45:39.580
That's where I find all the fascination in the world,
link |
02:45:43.000
frankly.
link |
02:45:45.180
One other thing about Weinstein and intellectuals
link |
02:45:49.500
more generally that are skeptical of Bitcoin,
link |
02:45:52.340
I would challenge them to read the book,
link |
02:45:54.340
Human Action, written by Mises.
link |
02:45:57.500
I think in 1949, he published the English version.
link |
02:46:01.380
It's essentially the Bible of Austrian economics.
link |
02:46:04.820
And I think Austrian economics is a noticeable gap
link |
02:46:09.620
in most modern intellectuals worldviews,
link |
02:46:13.760
that it's not taught in school.
link |
02:46:15.240
I mean, I have a master's degree in accounting and finance,
link |
02:46:17.540
studied a lot of economics in school.
link |
02:46:19.260
There's not one peep of Austrian econ.
link |
02:46:21.340
The least we'd love talking about all the degrees he has.
link |
02:46:26.500
I was a CPA.
link |
02:46:27.860
But that curriculum that we get in college
link |
02:46:35.540
is noticeably deficient in Austrian economics.
link |
02:46:38.660
And I think there's a reason why, right?
link |
02:46:40.100
It's heavily government influenced.
link |
02:46:45.220
Again, master's degree in accounting,
link |
02:46:46.640
they never taught me about what money is
link |
02:46:48.680
or where money comes from.
link |
02:46:49.980
All you learn is that the central bank issues money
link |
02:46:53.820
and the central bank takes money away.
link |
02:46:55.980
So it's conceived of in the textbooks
link |
02:46:58.780
quite literally as God, right?
link |
02:47:00.580
An entity that suffers no opportunity costs,
link |
02:47:03.720
that basically is the foundation
link |
02:47:06.780
of the entire Keynesian worldview
link |
02:47:09.100
that you're taught in economics.
link |
02:47:10.900
And Austrian economics is the opposite
link |
02:47:14.740
end of the spectrum of that, right?
link |
02:47:16.060
It's actually the culmination,
link |
02:47:18.420
which economics is the youngest science in the world,
link |
02:47:20.740
by the way.
link |
02:47:21.580
So it is kind of the front,
link |
02:47:24.960
it's the frontiers of science in many ways,
link |
02:47:27.000
like to actually, when I say praxeology,
link |
02:47:29.500
many people have never even heard of that.
link |
02:47:31.300
But it's something, it's an a priori study
link |
02:47:35.860
equivalent to something like mathematics,
link |
02:47:37.360
that you're building things from first principles
link |
02:47:39.560
to reason about economic reality.
link |
02:47:42.400
And I think that book, it's a very difficult book
link |
02:47:46.380
written by Mises, 1200 pages, translated from German.
link |
02:47:49.780
The way he wields English is fascinating
link |
02:47:52.180
and terrifying all at the same time.
link |
02:47:54.900
It'd probably take you six months to read it
link |
02:47:56.540
if you read it daily, seriously.
link |
02:47:58.100
Like it's a beast of a book.
link |
02:48:00.460
But that will plug the gap, I think in most,
link |
02:48:04.380
any intellectual that's skeptical about Bitcoin,
link |
02:48:06.140
I think that will plug the gap that's necessary
link |
02:48:08.000
for you to see it in a new light.
link |
02:48:10.340
Well, I'll take that as a challenge.
link |
02:48:12.620
Now that we took a little bit of a break,
link |
02:48:14.460
ate some good Texas brisket, thank you for that,
link |
02:48:16.480
by the way, for passing over.
link |
02:48:17.700
Quite welcome.
link |
02:48:18.900
Let me ask the ridiculous question.
link |
02:48:21.560
At the core of the idea of Bitcoin,
link |
02:48:24.180
is this guy or this entity named Satoshi Nakamoto?
link |
02:48:28.360
So the ridiculous question is, who is Satoshi Nakamoto?
link |
02:48:32.220
And first of all, is it you?
link |
02:48:35.120
It's not me.
link |
02:48:37.420
I wish.
link |
02:48:38.260
And is this an interesting question?
link |
02:48:41.780
Or is it just something about our human nature
link |
02:48:43.460
that wants to, that always tends towards mystery?
link |
02:48:47.140
Well, as we've touched on a bit today,
link |
02:48:51.620
you know, mythology, in my opinion,
link |
02:48:53.820
is something that is intrinsic to how we see the world
link |
02:48:57.380
in a lot of ways.
link |
02:48:58.220
Like it's how, it's kind of the structure
link |
02:49:02.240
by which we build these useful fictions.
link |
02:49:05.460
And so in that way, you could just say that
link |
02:49:08.260
Satoshi is the godhead of Bitcoin, effectively.
link |
02:49:11.840
And I think a compelling argument could be made
link |
02:49:15.560
that his disappearance is what really solidifies
link |
02:49:18.020
Bitcoin's decentralization.
link |
02:49:20.140
Because if there were one individual to personally vilify
link |
02:49:25.460
or denigrate or attack, you know, to disparage
link |
02:49:30.380
or question the motives of, you know,
link |
02:49:33.560
if he's out on the Hollywood Hills partying,
link |
02:49:37.780
everyone knows he's got a million Bitcoin, you know,
link |
02:49:40.500
it would just kind of tarnish the entire project
link |
02:49:43.500
in a lot of ways.
link |
02:49:44.340
But the fact that on that theme, something for nothing,
link |
02:49:48.100
this guy actually gave humanity something for nothing.
link |
02:49:51.140
And it appears that he didn't profit in any way.
link |
02:49:56.780
He, she, or they.
link |
02:49:59.420
I actually heard recently that he identified as a he
link |
02:50:01.820
in some of his communications.
link |
02:50:03.100
So it sounds like it is a he.
link |
02:50:04.700
So like his communication is being like studied,
link |
02:50:11.060
like almost like exactly as if he is a religious.
link |
02:50:14.460
That's right.
link |
02:50:15.580
Like a prophet.
link |
02:50:18.420
It's fascinating to imagine that he's still alive
link |
02:50:24.420
and living in this world.
link |
02:50:27.260
And it's even more fascinating to imagine
link |
02:50:29.140
that he's perhaps participating in the Bitcoin community
link |
02:50:32.220
because I mean, that takes a special human being
link |
02:50:36.780
to out of principle do that, to do, to remain anonymous.
link |
02:50:41.420
That's very much the George Washington.
link |
02:50:43.460
Yeah, I always wonder like how many people are like that?
link |
02:50:46.480
There's a cliche that like absolute power corrupts,
link |
02:50:48.900
absolutely, like power corrupts.
link |
02:50:51.380
But it seems like the progress of humanity depends
link |
02:50:55.000
on the people whom power doesn't corrupt.
link |
02:50:57.900
And it's enough to have just a small selection of those.
link |
02:51:04.340
And even if most of us are too weak, we give into power.
link |
02:51:09.500
If given the chance, all it takes is a few.
link |
02:51:14.020
That's, I've never thought of it like that,
link |
02:51:15.540
but Marcus Aurelius immediately came to mind.
link |
02:51:18.300
You know, the guy that he had the keys to the kingdom
link |
02:51:21.780
and he apparently adhered to the stoic virtues
link |
02:51:26.300
until the end, but yeah, I agree with Satoshi.
link |
02:51:30.140
The other thing that's interesting is he would be by far
link |
02:51:35.500
the most wealthy person in the world on a liquid asset basis
link |
02:51:39.980
because he has a million Bitcoin,
link |
02:51:42.220
which is 60 billion liquid net worth at current prices.
link |
02:51:47.860
So if he is still alive and just operating in the world,
link |
02:51:51.620
he is daily and moment to moment resisting massive
link |
02:51:56.180
incentives to go and just be the richest guy in the world.
link |
02:52:01.180
He's the ultimate hodler.
link |
02:52:02.740
Yeah.
link |
02:52:03.580
Yeah.
link |
02:52:05.020
I mean, so it's, I mean, it's turning down
link |
02:52:07.740
not just financial success, but also fame.
link |
02:52:12.300
I mean, fame is another drug.
link |
02:52:14.140
It's kind of power, but it's in itself is also a drug,
link |
02:52:17.340
especially in this modern society, in this attention.
link |
02:52:20.540
And he would have both.
link |
02:52:21.660
He would have both.
link |
02:52:22.900
It's fun to imagine who it could be.
link |
02:52:25.780
It's fascinating if it's somebody like you
link |
02:52:27.900
or somebody like Elon or somebody like that.
link |
02:52:30.580
That's fascinating to think about.
link |
02:52:31.900
I think Elon would be hilarious if he came out
link |
02:52:34.620
and he was Satoshi and be like,
link |
02:52:36.860
hey guys, I know I'm already the richest guy in the world,
link |
02:52:38.900
but I gotta go ahead and double my lead here.
link |
02:52:42.460
What do you make of Elon Musk investing with Tesla,
link |
02:52:46.420
investing in Bitcoin and maybe broaden it out
link |
02:52:50.380
in some of these other, you know,
link |
02:52:54.660
big billionaires, but also people tied to major companies
link |
02:52:57.980
investing in Bitcoin?
link |
02:52:59.900
Yeah, I think Michael Saylor really led the charge on that.
link |
02:53:04.900
He's the CEO of MicroStrategy
link |
02:53:06.460
that I think they've acquired upwards
link |
02:53:09.220
of $2 billion in Bitcoin now.
link |
02:53:11.020
Started acquiring August, maybe of 2020.
link |
02:53:15.940
And he's, you know, personally bought a lot of it.
link |
02:53:19.020
He bought a lot as a treasury reserve asset
link |
02:53:22.500
for his company, MicroStrategy.
link |
02:53:24.140
Then they leveraged up on a convertible note
link |
02:53:27.460
and bought more.
link |
02:53:28.300
So he's really gone, really leading the charge
link |
02:53:32.340
in this Bitcoin institutional adoption.
link |
02:53:35.940
Your conversation with him is a really interesting one.
link |
02:53:38.100
Your series of, I mean, series of episodes I suppose,
link |
02:53:41.780
but it's only a couple of conversations, I guess.
link |
02:53:44.220
Yeah, we recorded twice, five and a half hours each.
link |
02:53:48.180
So it's about 11 hours of content.
link |
02:53:50.140
Yeah, thank you.
link |
02:53:50.980
A lot of people have said that it's the best
link |
02:53:55.140
first principle thing they've ever seen on Bitcoin,
link |
02:53:57.300
which I take no credit for that at all.
link |
02:53:59.300
I mean, I just sat down with a guy and unleashed him.
link |
02:54:02.540
He's just a beast.
link |
02:54:04.020
Yeah, but it's fascinating that his longterm vision with it.
link |
02:54:11.300
I mean, I'm not sure I'm all philosophically bought in,
link |
02:54:15.500
but if he's right, if this set of ideas are as powerful
link |
02:54:20.500
as he describes, as you described,
link |
02:54:24.140
that this would change the world,
link |
02:54:26.700
which as you say, it's funny that a company
link |
02:54:28.700
like MicroStrategy might be the company
link |
02:54:34.540
that has the biggest macro effect
link |
02:54:38.060
on our economy and our world.
link |
02:54:40.180
Yeah, the conversation reshaped my worldview a lot too,
link |
02:54:44.420
because he framed money as energy,
link |
02:54:48.100
which I had often thought of money as time.
link |
02:54:50.940
And it explored those connections a lot in my writing,
link |
02:54:53.460
but looking at it as energy, and then his supposition
link |
02:54:57.300
that the purpose of life is to basically channel energy
link |
02:55:01.980
across space and time.
link |
02:55:03.140
So we're just trying to figure out how to channel
link |
02:55:05.100
more energy across space and time
link |
02:55:07.100
toward the satisfaction of aims.
link |
02:55:09.940
And his definition, or his answer to that question,
link |
02:55:12.660
what is money, is that money is the highest form of energy
link |
02:55:15.300
a human being can channel.
link |
02:55:17.140
So it's a claim to all other forms of energy
link |
02:55:19.420
we can manifest in the world.
link |
02:55:20.780
And that just completely reshaped how I see it,
link |
02:55:24.900
brought in this whole other side
link |
02:55:26.300
to my intellectual explorations of money.
link |
02:55:30.820
Can you elaborate on that a little bit?
link |
02:55:32.180
So I understand money is time,
link |
02:55:34.300
which in itself is a really powerful idea.
link |
02:55:37.100
But money is energy, and channeling energy,
link |
02:55:39.740
can you break that apart?
link |
02:55:40.700
Yeah, so I guess I definitely have to check out
link |
02:55:44.980
the whole series to really get his perspective,
link |
02:55:46.980
but I'll do my best to condense it.
link |
02:55:51.300
Life itself, all forms of life are,
link |
02:55:54.980
they're dependent on energy, right?
link |
02:55:56.500
Energy fuels everything, fuels life in action and motion
link |
02:56:00.500
and all of that.
link |
02:56:02.340
And we could say that maybe like a plant
link |
02:56:06.180
is harnessing solar energy
link |
02:56:08.980
and then reallocating that into growth.
link |
02:56:11.820
So its aim is to grow towards the sun, right?
link |
02:56:15.220
So it's allocating energy towards its goal
link |
02:56:17.620
of harnessing more solar energy kind of thing.
link |
02:56:20.740
So, and humans too have evolved
link |
02:56:27.220
to figure out how to harness energy in different ways
link |
02:56:30.580
to satisfy higher and more complicated aims.
link |
02:56:35.180
So the original energy network
link |
02:56:38.700
that he referenced was fire, right?
link |
02:56:41.220
We actually learned to wield fire as a tool in and of itself.
link |
02:56:45.740
So not only are we learning to channel energy,
link |
02:56:48.140
but we're actually learning how to isolate energy
link |
02:56:51.380
as a tool in and of itself.
link |
02:56:53.820
And so we went into that,
link |
02:56:55.020
how harnessing fire had changed human beings.
link |
02:56:59.700
And actually, this is one of the earliest examples too
link |
02:57:04.140
of a coevolution between tool and our biology,
link |
02:57:07.660
because when we developed fire, we developed cooking.
link |
02:57:11.580
And cooking is, you can kind of think of it
link |
02:57:13.180
as pre digestion in a way.
link |
02:57:14.540
We're liberating these macronutrients
link |
02:57:16.300
or making things that otherwise
link |
02:57:18.420
would not be digestible, edible.
link |
02:57:22.020
And it increases the efficiency
link |
02:57:23.340
by which we extract nutrients from food.
link |
02:57:26.220
That's what cooking does.
link |
02:57:27.540
So when we figured out cooking,
link |
02:57:29.900
we liberated all these digestive resources
link |
02:57:33.660
that were reallocated towards higher cognitive development.
link |
02:57:36.660
So there's this evolutionary path
link |
02:57:39.620
between figuring out fire and us becoming smarter,
link |
02:57:42.820
which is interesting.
link |
02:57:45.900
Some other early examples he gave,
link |
02:57:47.740
he went into were missiles and hydraulics.
link |
02:57:51.700
So missiles being, we learned to hunt at a distance.
link |
02:57:56.660
We can't bring down a wooly mammoth,
link |
02:57:58.900
maybe with spears and up close and personal force,
link |
02:58:03.900
but we could with spears and javelins and slings and whatnot.
link |
02:58:07.500
And then he went into how we've used water
link |
02:58:11.500
to channel hydraulic energy.
link |
02:58:12.900
So we can basically overcome gravity.
link |
02:58:14.540
We can move, there's theories that the pyramids
link |
02:58:19.940
were constructed using, the blocks were moved
link |
02:58:22.300
using hydraulic energy or using water.
link |
02:58:25.220
Clearly we use like cargo ships and whatnot
link |
02:58:27.660
to move things much more efficiently across water
link |
02:58:29.900
than we could the land.
link |
02:58:32.140
So his whole view is how we keep figuring out better ways
link |
02:58:37.300
and more efficient ways to harness energy and channel it.
link |
02:58:40.300
And in that perspective, money has always represented
link |
02:58:46.580
a claim on all other forms of energy.
link |
02:58:48.740
So whatever energy couldn't be channeled
link |
02:58:51.660
towards something useful in the economy historically
link |
02:58:54.580
would go into gold mining.
link |
02:58:55.980
So gold became this residual, this economic,
link |
02:58:59.340
this token of the excess energy created
link |
02:59:03.860
by the market economy.
link |
02:59:05.300
And then you could take that token of energy
link |
02:59:07.220
and use it to redeem for any other form of energy
link |
02:59:10.420
or any of the products of energy itself.
link |
02:59:13.340
So it's, I guess it's my best approximation of it.
link |
02:59:17.820
And it just really shattered my worldview again,
link |
02:59:22.060
because I'd always thought about it as time.
link |
02:59:23.540
Like we spend time sacrificing to obtain money
link |
02:59:26.380
that we then redeem for commencement sacrifices
link |
02:59:28.420
from others, but I'd never considered it purely as energy.
link |
02:59:32.420
And then it also ties back into gold,
link |
02:59:35.260
where there was an energy expenditure necessary
link |
02:59:38.940
to obtain gold.
link |
02:59:40.260
So there's a proof of work associated with obtaining gold
link |
02:59:43.700
that protected its market value, right?
link |
02:59:46.100
So you had to expend, again,
link |
02:59:47.780
if market value of gold's 2000 an ounce,
link |
02:59:50.220
you had to expend 1900 an ounce mining.
link |
02:59:53.180
So it kept producers honest in a way.
link |
02:59:56.580
So do you think something like proof of stake
link |
02:59:58.980
that's more about reputation
link |
03:00:01.940
than actual exertion, like energy can work?
link |
03:00:10.180
No, I think proof of stake is inherently centralizing.
link |
03:00:15.460
It's like the old Matthew principle,
link |
03:00:18.380
from those who have to those who have,
link |
03:00:20.900
more will be given from those who have not,
link |
03:00:22.900
everything will be taken.
link |
03:00:24.100
That's what proof of stake is.
link |
03:00:26.420
You need proof of work to embody skin in the game
link |
03:00:29.860
in the marketplace, such that contributions
link |
03:00:33.580
are commensurate with consideration received.
link |
03:00:36.420
That's how systems work.
link |
03:00:39.420
What's the idea why proof of work might
link |
03:00:44.900
incentivize decentralization?
link |
03:00:49.620
Do you worry that as Bitcoin becomes more powerful,
link |
03:00:53.220
it may become, again, more centralized?
link |
03:00:56.820
Well, the decentralization of Bitcoin
link |
03:01:00.980
is largely driven by the nodes, actually,
link |
03:01:03.780
which aren't actually mining.
link |
03:01:05.300
They're just choosing which rule set to implement.
link |
03:01:10.660
And then the mining network's
link |
03:01:12.140
actually enforcing that rule set.
link |
03:01:14.580
So I think the mining network
link |
03:01:19.580
is inherently decentralized in that,
link |
03:01:22.140
really anyone with access to cheap energy
link |
03:01:24.540
can become a miner.
link |
03:01:25.580
You can freely enter or exit the market
link |
03:01:27.860
or the network at any time.
link |
03:01:30.860
But maintaining the block size at a manageable level
link |
03:01:34.780
is what's key to maintaining node decentralization.
link |
03:01:38.020
This is an interesting question.
link |
03:01:40.540
Who do you think has more power, the miners or the nodes?
link |
03:01:44.340
Because the nodes carry the idea of the protocol,
link |
03:01:49.340
like the specifics.
link |
03:01:52.340
So in some sense, they have more power,
link |
03:01:55.140
if Bitcoin is an idea.
link |
03:01:58.340
They're kind of mutually indispensable though,
link |
03:02:00.500
because you can't have,
link |
03:02:03.580
there's no security without the miners.
link |
03:02:05.740
So without the miners, Bitcoin is just an idea.
link |
03:02:08.260
And the idea of Bitcoin has maybe existed
link |
03:02:11.980
even before Bitcoin, right?
link |
03:02:13.060
Just sound money.
link |
03:02:13.900
We just say sound money as an idea.
link |
03:02:15.660
But there was no way to root that into thermodynamic reality
link |
03:02:19.620
without Satoshi figuring out, not just proof of work,
link |
03:02:24.060
it's the entire composite of the difficulty adjustment,
link |
03:02:27.340
proof of work, one way hashing, et cetera.
link |
03:02:31.700
So I don't know, that's hard to say,
link |
03:02:34.020
hard to disentangle the two.
link |
03:02:36.340
You've talked about money as morality too.
link |
03:02:40.460
How do you think about moral and immoral action
link |
03:02:43.540
in the context of money?
link |
03:02:47.340
There's this great quote by Rothbard,
link |
03:02:51.020
who's a famous Austrian economist.
link |
03:02:53.740
And he says, quote, to be moral, an act must be free,
link |
03:02:58.900
unquote.
link |
03:03:00.860
And I think morality, it changes over time
link |
03:03:07.900
and it is, it has its roots
link |
03:03:12.220
in biology.
link |
03:03:15.700
Jordan Peterson makes the point that even animals
link |
03:03:17.540
have their own sort of pseudo morality.
link |
03:03:21.100
Where like with wolf packs, for instance,
link |
03:03:24.420
if there's a dispute between the alpha males,
link |
03:03:26.900
or I guess between an alpha male and a incumbent,
link |
03:03:30.780
the two males will have a fight basically.
link |
03:03:35.460
And then when one, it's decided that one has won,
link |
03:03:39.420
the loser will basically roll over and give up his neck
link |
03:03:42.020
to the alpha male.
link |
03:03:44.940
And they do this instead of fighting to the death
link |
03:03:47.780
because in a wolf pack, they need every wolf
link |
03:03:50.980
so they can go out and bring down,
link |
03:03:52.780
you never know when you're gonna need the 20th wolf
link |
03:03:54.900
to bring down the big buffalo the next day or whatever.
link |
03:03:56.980
So they've developed this less than fight to the death
link |
03:04:01.260
social morality to optimize their effectiveness
link |
03:04:04.540
as a wolf pack.
link |
03:04:07.860
And similarly for humans, like our morality
link |
03:04:10.740
sort of emerges through competition and play even.
link |
03:04:16.140
There are these implicit rules that come into place
link |
03:04:19.860
based on how we're organizing ourselves over time.
link |
03:04:23.980
And with, so with money it's interesting
link |
03:04:29.380
because most tools we would consider to be amoral,
link |
03:04:34.380
as in a hammer can be used to build a house
link |
03:04:38.060
which could be seen to be good,
link |
03:04:39.340
like a good constructive purpose,
link |
03:04:40.780
or it could be used to bash them on skull,
link |
03:04:43.060
which could be something evil.
link |
03:04:45.940
And that the tool itself is amoral,
link |
03:04:49.380
doesn't have any independent morality of its own.
link |
03:04:51.500
All of the morality is associated
link |
03:04:54.020
with the wielder of the tool.
link |
03:04:55.380
So what's the quote like, any tool can be a weapon
link |
03:04:58.620
if you hold it right sort of thing.
link |
03:05:01.460
But money's maybe a little bit different in that
link |
03:05:05.660
when you monopolize money,
link |
03:05:11.860
it's only useful as a tool for one thing.
link |
03:05:15.260
And that's for allocating wealth away from some
link |
03:05:17.820
and to others.
link |
03:05:19.420
So it is the only utility of monopolized money is theft.
link |
03:05:24.500
There's no other, there's a lot of propaganda out there
link |
03:05:28.220
that will say, oh, we need to print money
link |
03:05:29.660
to get out of this disaster or to give to the poor,
link |
03:05:34.340
whatever moralistically camouflaged political aim
link |
03:05:40.260
is being discussed, the base layer of monopolized money
link |
03:05:44.260
is that it's only useful for taking from some
link |
03:05:46.300
and giving to others.
link |
03:05:47.780
So another way to think about this is that money
link |
03:05:51.500
is a paper claim on the savings of society.
link |
03:05:55.100
So it is just a ticket for redeeming savings,
link |
03:05:58.100
which could be time, could be capital,
link |
03:06:00.820
it could be knowledge from any market actor in the world.
link |
03:06:04.580
So it's kind of a list of who owns what,
link |
03:06:06.780
if you will, it's a proxy list.
link |
03:06:08.100
If there's one group that can amend that list
link |
03:06:11.180
and others cannot, then they're basically able
link |
03:06:14.700
and incented to modify that list to their own benefit.
link |
03:06:20.380
And that's effectively what a central bank is doing.
link |
03:06:23.060
So a central bank is determining how much money to create.
link |
03:06:27.100
They're also determining who gets to receive
link |
03:06:28.740
that money first and the first recipients of that money
link |
03:06:33.140
are gonna be the beneficiaries in an inflationary regime.
link |
03:06:37.300
So those that receive the money last
link |
03:06:39.060
are the ones being robbed.
link |
03:06:40.620
Those that receive the money first are the ones
link |
03:06:42.580
that are receiving the stolen proceeds, let's say.
link |
03:06:48.460
And this has a really corrosive effect on social morality
link |
03:06:53.460
because if we consider that people's time horizon,
link |
03:06:59.620
which the Austrians call the time preference,
link |
03:07:02.940
the more short term thinking you are,
link |
03:07:05.940
the more likely you are to engage in selfish behavior.
link |
03:07:10.940
If you know that it's all over tomorrow
link |
03:07:15.580
and you've been working your whole life
link |
03:07:16.900
to develop this business or create this reputation
link |
03:07:20.380
or whatever your thing is,
link |
03:07:21.220
but you just are given the foreknowledge that tomorrow
link |
03:07:23.660
it's all gonna end, you're much more likely to go out
link |
03:07:26.620
and just maybe get drunk and party that night
link |
03:07:28.740
because there's no more repercussions.
link |
03:07:32.220
Whereas if you know that you're gonna live
link |
03:07:35.700
for a very long time, you're much more likely
link |
03:07:38.860
to plan for the future.
link |
03:07:45.140
So we just say that your time horizon
link |
03:07:46.460
is closely related to your morality.
link |
03:07:48.900
The longer term thinking you are, the more moral
link |
03:07:51.500
you would tend to behave, the more you would care
link |
03:07:53.140
about long term relationship building
link |
03:07:55.020
versus going out and getting wasted.
link |
03:07:57.580
And money too impinges very closely on our time preference.
link |
03:08:03.580
And again, time preference is the Austrian term.
link |
03:08:05.300
So low time preference means you're long term oriented,
link |
03:08:09.020
high time preference means you're short term oriented,
link |
03:08:11.260
which can be a little trippy for some people
link |
03:08:13.300
because it sounds backwards.
link |
03:08:14.460
But if your money constantly loses value,
link |
03:08:21.220
you are incentivized to become more short term oriented.
link |
03:08:25.460
You are handicapped in your ability to plan for the future
link |
03:08:29.820
because your money, which is intended to be,
link |
03:08:33.980
here's another definition of money,
link |
03:08:35.380
as an insurance policy against uncertainty.
link |
03:08:38.260
So no matter what problems you encounter in the world,
link |
03:08:40.580
this money will best help you deal with those problems.
link |
03:08:44.060
When that insurance policy against uncertainty
link |
03:08:46.660
is injected with uncertainty, it's polluted
link |
03:08:49.660
with the uncertainty of inflation,
link |
03:08:51.500
your time horizon shrinks,
link |
03:08:53.060
your ability to plan long term shrinks.
link |
03:08:55.300
And this impinges on social morality.
link |
03:08:58.100
So there's a great book on this called Honest Money
link |
03:09:01.380
by Gary North.
link |
03:09:02.820
And in that book, he gives the parable of the wine maker.
link |
03:09:06.340
And the wine maker, if we just imagine
link |
03:09:10.780
the hypothetical wine maker,
link |
03:09:12.420
operating a business in a centrally banked economy.
link |
03:09:15.500
And let's say his central bank just doubled
link |
03:09:17.540
the money supply to quote unquote save the economy.
link |
03:09:21.620
Say an increase in money supply from one to $2 trillion.
link |
03:09:24.780
This wine maker that's accustomed to selling wine
link |
03:09:26.940
at $20 a bottle is now faced with basically three choices.
link |
03:09:34.300
And an important point here too,
link |
03:09:36.020
before we get into his three choices,
link |
03:09:37.420
are what prices are themselves.
link |
03:09:39.340
Prices are the most visible aspect of any service.
link |
03:09:43.980
So when you increase prices,
link |
03:09:46.940
you're incentivizing your customers to look elsewhere.
link |
03:09:49.740
They're gonna look at your competition.
link |
03:09:51.380
When you decrease prices,
link |
03:09:53.100
you're incentivizing market actors
link |
03:09:55.380
to look closer at your product, right?
link |
03:09:57.180
You're delivering a solution at a lower price.
link |
03:10:00.100
So this wine maker that's accustomed to selling his wine
link |
03:10:02.420
at a $20 price point, all of a sudden,
link |
03:10:05.260
because of a central bank has tripled the money supply,
link |
03:10:07.900
he has three choices.
link |
03:10:10.260
He can either keep selling his bottle at $20
link |
03:10:14.500
and all of his inputs will increase due to inflation by 50%.
link |
03:10:19.020
So he will lose 50% of his profit margin as a result.
link |
03:10:24.220
So he can choose to eat that loss.
link |
03:10:26.100
He can choose to double the selling price
link |
03:10:28.420
of his bottle of wine from $20 to $40,
link |
03:10:31.380
because all of the price of his inputs doubled.
link |
03:10:33.820
So then he would maintain his profit margin.
link |
03:10:36.060
Or the third one is that he could choose
link |
03:10:40.100
to water down his wine or use inferior ingredients.
link |
03:10:44.740
So he could use cheaper inputs
link |
03:10:46.740
and maintain the output at the same price.
link |
03:10:51.100
So he could basically start selling his customers
link |
03:10:53.900
an inferior product for the same price
link |
03:10:55.460
to preserve his profit margin.
link |
03:10:57.980
Now, again, case number one, it's not very palatable.
link |
03:11:01.420
He doesn't wanna eat the economic loss.
link |
03:11:03.220
Case number two, he doesn't wanna eat the profit margin.
link |
03:11:06.020
Case number two, it's not very good either,
link |
03:11:08.340
because he's then incentivizing all of his customers
link |
03:11:10.660
to go shop other winemakers if he doubles his price.
link |
03:11:14.220
So human nature being what it is,
link |
03:11:16.580
trying to get something for nothing,
link |
03:11:18.580
inflation actually seeps into other industries
link |
03:11:21.340
by encouraging producers into option three,
link |
03:11:24.740
which is to deceive your customer in the short run.
link |
03:11:27.940
And again, this would be done initially at the margins.
link |
03:11:31.020
Maybe it's just a few drops of water.
link |
03:11:32.460
Maybe it's just some cheaper grapes.
link |
03:11:35.260
But over time, this inflation is actually inducing producers
link |
03:11:42.500
to weigh their financial wellbeing
link |
03:11:45.300
against their moral integrity.
link |
03:11:47.300
So it's forcing them into this dilemma
link |
03:11:49.700
that would not exist in a free market economy.
link |
03:11:53.220
And as they charge more money for wine that is inferior,
link |
03:11:58.940
the buyers of that wine,
link |
03:12:00.940
also living in a central banked economy
link |
03:12:02.620
are also getting scammed by not only the inflation,
link |
03:12:05.180
but also the wine.
link |
03:12:06.420
So it becomes this kind of corrosive contagious moral effect
link |
03:12:12.260
that propagates throughout an economy.
link |
03:12:14.860
And that's why I've argued in a lot of my writing
link |
03:12:18.500
that inflation is this infectious moral cancer on the world.
link |
03:12:24.100
I think it is tied back to a lot of the social strangeness
link |
03:12:30.860
we've seen in modern times,
link |
03:12:32.460
where there seems to be a lot of fake people
link |
03:12:35.900
and a lot of fake businesses and a lot of scams,
link |
03:12:38.020
all of these things.
link |
03:12:38.860
I think it really is rooted in the money.
link |
03:12:40.940
And Bitcoin, as the first money in history
link |
03:12:45.100
that has a 0% terminal inflation rate,
link |
03:12:47.340
or said differently, zero unexpected inflation.
link |
03:12:50.480
There's no theft integrated into Bitcoin.
link |
03:12:54.340
You can only earn it through work
link |
03:12:56.020
or sacrificing resources to obtain it.
link |
03:12:58.280
It is the antidote to this moral cancer
link |
03:13:03.760
that inflation riddles our society with.
link |
03:13:07.040
Again, you're blowing my mind a little bit
link |
03:13:08.820
to think about the ripple effects of inflation,
link |
03:13:11.840
the way it seeps through our interactions.
link |
03:13:15.120
So at the very, the early ripples
link |
03:13:18.560
is the effect it has on the products,
link |
03:13:20.400
on the dilution of the wine.
link |
03:13:23.080
But also it might have ripple effects on the character,
link |
03:13:27.160
on the behavior of people.
link |
03:13:30.200
That's interesting, artificial creation of scarcity,
link |
03:13:33.320
creating, having effects on society at the social,
link |
03:13:38.640
like the social fabric.
link |
03:13:40.200
And I guess you're arguing the morality.
link |
03:13:43.980
It's perverting free market dynamics,
link |
03:13:45.960
which again, we said free markets generate pragmatic truth.
link |
03:13:49.000
So inflation distorts price signals,
link |
03:13:52.000
which means it confuses capital allocation.
link |
03:13:54.960
So we're trying to solve problems,
link |
03:13:56.280
but all of a sudden we can't tell
link |
03:13:58.080
if this price increase is a matter
link |
03:13:59.560
of true supply and demand change
link |
03:14:01.640
or a matter of policy change.
link |
03:14:03.520
So it clouds our economic perceptions.
link |
03:14:07.200
It suppresses innovation
link |
03:14:09.360
because now you've exacerbated
link |
03:14:11.120
the boom and bust business cycle.
link |
03:14:12.520
People are gonna overborrow and go into projects
link |
03:14:14.960
that they can't profitably sustain.
link |
03:14:16.840
So then there'll be a huge collapse.
link |
03:14:18.360
So that actually breaks the market's function
link |
03:14:22.280
of generating innovation.
link |
03:14:24.080
And then, yeah, I would argue too
link |
03:14:25.220
that it pollutes our pursuit of virtue, let's say.
link |
03:14:29.560
Maybe it's pushing back, but I don't think so.
link |
03:14:33.320
It's not as clear to me,
link |
03:14:34.880
perhaps because I haven't thought about it deeply,
link |
03:14:36.860
that money is core to life and human interaction
link |
03:14:43.320
because there might be other forces,
link |
03:14:45.600
other fraudulent forces, other things in human nature
link |
03:14:48.900
that are creating these effects as well.
link |
03:14:51.200
So it's clear, I think you're articulating really well
link |
03:14:53.320
that there's these negative effects from inflation.
link |
03:14:56.200
I wonder if there's other undiscovered,
link |
03:14:59.040
not undiscovered, but ones we're not making explicit now,
link |
03:15:02.320
forces that are creating all the things we're seeing now
link |
03:15:08.600
with, like you said, cancer culture and all those things,
link |
03:15:11.500
but also the negative effects on the quality of products,
link |
03:15:16.920
on the excellence of the creativity and the innovation,
link |
03:15:20.360
all those kinds of things.
link |
03:15:21.200
I wonder if there's other factors.
link |
03:15:23.160
It's kind of, listen, it's compelling to think money's
link |
03:15:26.760
at the core of it all.
link |
03:15:28.360
Like if you fix, I forgot what the phrase was.
link |
03:15:30.760
Fix the money, fix the world.
link |
03:15:31.760
Yeah, fix the money, fix the world.
link |
03:15:35.640
Again, things that sound good, I'm skeptical of by nature.
link |
03:15:40.520
So I wonder if there's other things that are beyond money
link |
03:15:44.480
that are somehow deeply integrated into our human nature.
link |
03:15:47.320
Another one related to money is social cohesion itself.
link |
03:15:51.640
So very simple anecdote for this was the more you increase
link |
03:15:57.140
the inflation rate, social cohesion is inversely
link |
03:16:01.120
proportionate to that.
link |
03:16:02.140
So the extreme example would be hyperinflation, right?
link |
03:16:04.620
Where the money is produced in such excess
link |
03:16:07.300
that it loses all meaning and relevance.
link |
03:16:09.800
So today in Venezuela, there is cash clogging the gutters,
link |
03:16:14.400
clogging the streets, clogging the sewer system,
link |
03:16:17.700
because the cash has lost all relevance.
link |
03:16:21.160
And so anecdotally, we would suspect that,
link |
03:16:23.640
okay, if there's a inverse relationship
link |
03:16:27.080
between inflation and social cohesion,
link |
03:16:29.960
if we could then take inflation to zero,
link |
03:16:32.700
couldn't we theoretically increase
link |
03:16:34.520
social cohesion to its maximum?
link |
03:16:38.640
So another way to say that is inflation
link |
03:16:40.600
is a decivilizing force, whereas natural price deflation,
link |
03:16:45.760
which would occur in a hard money economy,
link |
03:16:48.600
where there's either a fixed supply of Bitcoin
link |
03:16:51.040
or a relatively scarce supply of gold, for instance,
link |
03:16:56.200
that lays claim to an increasing capital stock
link |
03:17:00.280
of goods and services, prices would naturally decline
link |
03:17:03.500
every year as we became smarter.
link |
03:17:06.120
So the market price becomes a reflection
link |
03:17:07.840
of our collective knowledge.
link |
03:17:09.840
So by letting prices decline naturally over time,
link |
03:17:12.680
we can actually induce civilization.
link |
03:17:16.120
But by trying to force prices higher all the time
link |
03:17:18.640
via the central bank, we're creating the opposite effect.
link |
03:17:21.880
So we talked a little bit about the Soviet Union,
link |
03:17:24.160
and I happened to have lived through the collapse
link |
03:17:26.380
of the Soviet Union.
link |
03:17:28.780
And so what are the factors, the causes in your mind
link |
03:17:34.660
to why the Soviet Union collapsed?
link |
03:17:38.280
So, you know, definitely a multivariate situation.
link |
03:17:42.920
I think there's a lot of factors.
link |
03:17:45.160
One that jumped out to me recently,
link |
03:17:48.860
again, from that documentary that I didn't note before
link |
03:17:51.420
was that at one point, Stalin eliminated,
link |
03:17:54.060
I think 75% of his intelligence force,
link |
03:17:59.420
which I think when you're competing
link |
03:18:01.300
with another nation state, you know,
link |
03:18:04.100
and intelligence and covert operations
link |
03:18:06.820
are very integral to your survival,
link |
03:18:08.820
I think that was definitely a shot in the foot.
link |
03:18:13.560
But at a higher level, I would say that capitalism
link |
03:18:19.780
and communism were each resource strategies
link |
03:18:23.620
of the 20th century nation state.
link |
03:18:27.740
And they seem, you know, we commonly consider them
link |
03:18:30.080
to be diametrically opposed,
link |
03:18:31.460
but there's actually a lot of commonality between the two.
link |
03:18:34.780
The difference would be that in Soviet Russia,
link |
03:18:39.300
as we alluded to earlier,
link |
03:18:40.460
they tried to completely replace price signals
link |
03:18:44.720
with this nationalistic faith and devotion.
link |
03:18:46.860
So they removed the economic nerve signal,
link |
03:18:50.660
which coordinated the allocation of capital over time.
link |
03:18:53.700
So this inhibited their ability to generate wealth.
link |
03:18:57.020
Whereas in the United States,
link |
03:18:58.240
we left most markets open to free enterprise.
link |
03:19:02.340
So we honored the integrity of price signals
link |
03:19:06.100
and we allowed people to trade and accumulate wealth.
link |
03:19:11.680
So in every market, except the market for money,
link |
03:19:14.600
both markets maintained a central bank as we've gotten to.
link |
03:19:18.280
So I think in a really big picture standpoint,
link |
03:19:23.060
that's why capitalism outcompetes communism
link |
03:19:27.540
is because it is able to generate more wealth
link |
03:19:31.220
than communism was,
link |
03:19:32.940
and therefore was able to put financial pressure
link |
03:19:35.620
on the USSR until it reached the point of bankruptcy,
link |
03:19:39.340
essentially.
link |
03:19:41.180
A similar model, I would argue,
link |
03:19:44.120
is that for the same reasons we saw
link |
03:19:48.580
capitalism outcompete communism,
link |
03:19:50.100
which I think the data that I recall
link |
03:19:53.880
was that the USSR's economy was valued
link |
03:19:56.580
at close to one third of its inputs.
link |
03:19:59.660
So if you just didn't do anything inside the USSR
link |
03:20:02.820
and just sold all the raw materials that were going into it,
link |
03:20:05.380
it would have been worth three times as much
link |
03:20:07.940
as sending the materials in,
link |
03:20:09.820
running it through the efforts
link |
03:20:10.900
and then shipping things back out.
link |
03:20:12.620
It was value destructive versus value creative.
link |
03:20:16.260
And I would argue this is because,
link |
03:20:18.580
again, the centralized computing model
link |
03:20:21.420
versus decentralized computing model,
link |
03:20:23.340
it just became more and more corrupt over time.
link |
03:20:27.780
It got to the point where I think most of the occupations
link |
03:20:30.900
in USSR towards the end were as informants, right?
link |
03:20:34.220
They were working for the state.
link |
03:20:37.140
Jordan Peterson makes this point too,
link |
03:20:38.500
that at some point it was actually illegal
link |
03:20:40.540
to be sad in Soviet Russia.
link |
03:20:43.100
Because if you were sad,
link |
03:20:44.980
you were contradicting the utopian view of the state.
link |
03:20:48.900
So if you were sad,
link |
03:20:49.740
you're implying the state's not doing something wrong.
link |
03:20:51.940
But by the way, this does remind me,
link |
03:20:55.020
do you know what Jordan Peterson thinks about Bitcoin
link |
03:20:57.180
and about the future impact of Bitcoin on the society?
link |
03:21:02.180
No, I don't actually.
link |
03:21:06.980
We're hopefully gonna be talking to him soon about that.
link |
03:21:10.620
We did a book club on his book, Maps of Meaning,
link |
03:21:14.140
and he engaged with us about it.
link |
03:21:16.100
So we're hoping to deliver the orange bill to Mr. Peterson.
link |
03:21:19.060
The orange bill.
link |
03:21:20.660
I think his audience is one of the most important audiences
link |
03:21:24.020
in the world to understand Bitcoin,
link |
03:21:25.340
these people that are conscientious and responsible.
link |
03:21:29.380
I think they'll quickly understand Bitcoin's
link |
03:21:34.660
value proposition and help elucidate it to the world.
link |
03:21:38.460
I'm trying to remember what he said about it.
link |
03:21:41.180
Basically, I think his support of Bitcoin
link |
03:21:44.180
is grounded in the kind of people
link |
03:21:47.060
who are opposing Bitcoin.
link |
03:21:49.860
So without understanding Bitcoin,
link |
03:21:52.700
he starts to like Bitcoin
link |
03:21:54.420
because of the people who are opposing it.
link |
03:21:56.620
He's, you know, you start to, I mean,
link |
03:21:59.580
that's partially why I am interested in Bitcoin.
link |
03:22:03.660
It's like all the people in power
link |
03:22:08.540
and all the kind of shady, fraudulent,
link |
03:22:12.340
non genuine people who are dismissing Bitcoin
link |
03:22:17.540
are making me think, hmm.
link |
03:22:19.420
One of Jordan's definitions of God is,
link |
03:22:23.500
he says, God is found in the truthful speech
link |
03:22:26.740
that rectifies pathological hierarchies.
link |
03:22:30.300
And I think that is a beautiful definition
link |
03:22:34.660
of what Bitcoin is doing in the world.
link |
03:22:36.660
And that we have this pathological hierarchy
link |
03:22:39.060
called central banking,
link |
03:22:40.820
by which the rich get richer and the poor get poorer,
link |
03:22:45.020
that is used as a mechanism for perpetual theft
link |
03:22:48.260
and funding warfare at a global scale.
link |
03:22:51.300
Like Ron Paul said, it's no coincidence
link |
03:22:53.540
that the 20th century of total war
link |
03:22:56.020
was also the century of central banking.
link |
03:22:59.540
When you have an institution of currency counterfeiting,
link |
03:23:04.540
which the central bank is,
link |
03:23:06.660
you are no longer bounded by your own balance sheet
link |
03:23:09.340
when you go to war.
link |
03:23:10.300
You don't have to just go to war on your own resources.
link |
03:23:12.340
You can now pillage the commonwealth
link |
03:23:15.180
and pull for the savings of society as a whole
link |
03:23:18.940
before you go bankrupt.
link |
03:23:21.380
And indeed, this is what Hitler did, right?
link |
03:23:23.900
Hitler hyperinflated in the Weimar Republic
link |
03:23:28.260
to fund his war efforts.
link |
03:23:31.780
And frankly, every dictator, every world war,
link |
03:23:35.620
every internment camp in history was made possible
link |
03:23:39.700
by the weaponization of money in fiat currency.
link |
03:23:43.460
So I hope, I know Jordan Peterson
link |
03:23:46.900
is a huge proponent of free speech.
link |
03:23:49.340
And I think that's ultimately at its deepest essence,
link |
03:23:51.740
that's what Bitcoin really is, right?
link |
03:23:53.180
It is just the purest form
link |
03:23:55.420
of monetary speech we've ever had.
link |
03:23:58.540
And by purifying that primary operating system
link |
03:24:02.940
of human action, I think we can eliminate
link |
03:24:06.180
this pathological hierarchy that is unfortunately
link |
03:24:09.220
the dominant institution in the world today.
link |
03:24:11.780
Yeah, I'm definitely,
link |
03:24:13.380
especially with these explorations of Bitcoin,
link |
03:24:16.340
this journey I've been on,
link |
03:24:18.020
I'll revisit some of the aspects of human history
link |
03:24:21.380
that I've been looking at like Stalin and Hitler
link |
03:24:24.620
with a, from a perspective of a monetary perspective,
link |
03:24:28.820
like what are the effects of inflation?
link |
03:24:33.140
How was it used as a tool in gaining power
link |
03:24:37.980
and maintaining power and manipulating the populace
link |
03:24:42.980
in doing, in inflicting suffering
link |
03:24:47.820
and I would say evil onto the world.
link |
03:24:51.380
It's interesting.
link |
03:24:52.260
I, it's interesting.
link |
03:24:54.740
I'm gonna have to sort of go back into the hole.
link |
03:24:56.860
So I tend to focus more on the human nature
link |
03:25:02.780
and less about the tools
link |
03:25:05.780
that human nature leverages to affect change.
link |
03:25:08.820
But you're right that in some sense,
link |
03:25:11.100
money is a tool which can be effectively used
link |
03:25:17.500
to perform moral and immoral actions
link |
03:25:21.740
depending on how it's used.
link |
03:25:23.500
There's a feedback between the two, right?
link |
03:25:25.660
There's, specifically with money itself,
link |
03:25:31.700
it's the, here's the way I've been posing it lately
link |
03:25:36.700
is that I actually think we typically think of people
link |
03:25:39.700
as good or bad, or again,
link |
03:25:41.540
trying to label people all the time,
link |
03:25:43.300
but I think people and their characters
link |
03:25:45.620
are emergent properties of the incentive structures
link |
03:25:48.540
they inhabit.
link |
03:25:49.380
Yeah.
link |
03:25:50.220
So, you know, what does Charlie Munger say?
link |
03:25:53.060
Don't show me the incentives,
link |
03:25:54.300
I'll show you the outcome kind of thing.
link |
03:25:56.900
This is a flawed incentive structure
link |
03:25:59.180
we've been operating within.
link |
03:26:01.100
Now I'm not speaking to the intention.
link |
03:26:03.220
People want to argue with me all the time.
link |
03:26:04.620
Like Jerome Powell's not a bad guy.
link |
03:26:06.980
He's doing his best at the central bank.
link |
03:26:08.620
He's doing what he thinks is right.
link |
03:26:09.940
That's fine.
link |
03:26:11.780
Well, that's true or not, it actually doesn't matter.
link |
03:26:13.700
The intention is divergent from the outcome.
link |
03:26:16.420
The institution that they are running
link |
03:26:18.020
is premised on deception and theft,
link |
03:26:20.340
and it is handicapping the productive economy.
link |
03:26:22.980
So when we're, even the terms we use, printing money,
link |
03:26:26.300
you're not creating any new value.
link |
03:26:27.980
You're not infusing the economy with anything,
link |
03:26:29.860
any new productive factors whatsoever.
link |
03:26:31.860
You're just creating new value.
link |
03:26:33.540
You're not infusing the economy with anything,
link |
03:26:35.260
any new productive factors whatsoever.
link |
03:26:37.220
You're just harvesting the economic surplus
link |
03:26:39.500
created by entrepreneurs in the marketplace.
link |
03:26:42.300
It's impossible to add any value to an economy
link |
03:26:45.300
by increasing the paper claims on its savings.
link |
03:26:48.420
So there's a feedback loop between man and tool,
link |
03:26:54.460
between creator and created.
link |
03:26:56.020
And I think we have to honor the relationship
link |
03:26:59.780
above either one, right?
link |
03:27:01.300
Trying to put the right people in the system
link |
03:27:03.300
in the right place.
link |
03:27:04.140
Do you think the interesting question
link |
03:27:05.220
of whether the people that are in control of central banks
link |
03:27:12.060
or in positions of power there,
link |
03:27:14.700
if they themselves are malevolent,
link |
03:27:17.220
they themselves are bad actors,
link |
03:27:19.820
or they're simply like leaves floating along the river,
link |
03:27:25.220
sort of just the cog in the machine,
link |
03:27:29.820
an ant in an ant colony
link |
03:27:31.380
that operates in a certain kind of way.
link |
03:27:33.940
Like, where do you put the blame?
link |
03:27:36.740
Do you put the blame on the way things are operating
link |
03:27:40.740
onto the individuals or onto the system itself,
link |
03:27:44.460
the idea behind the system?
link |
03:27:46.980
Where, and is it useful to place the blame somewhere?
link |
03:27:50.860
Because for me, it might be useful to understand that
link |
03:27:53.380
in order to figure out what the solution is.
link |
03:27:57.080
I tend to not put the blame on the individual.
link |
03:27:59.840
Like I tend to believe most people are good
link |
03:28:02.460
and want to see themselves as good.
link |
03:28:05.340
And so in that case, it's very difficult
link |
03:28:07.760
to be truly malevolent as you would need to be to control,
link |
03:28:11.100
to gain centralized power at the large scale.
link |
03:28:14.820
But I know a lot of conspiracy theorists
link |
03:28:19.140
and just a lot of people think that there is evil humans
link |
03:28:23.140
in the world that seek power, maintain that power,
link |
03:28:26.700
and then use that power for bad purposes.
link |
03:28:29.940
I think they're just people.
link |
03:28:32.300
And they're just trying to get something for nothing,
link |
03:28:34.380
like all of us do.
link |
03:28:35.380
I like this framework of thought.
link |
03:28:37.860
Well, honestly, and that's what the central bank is,
link |
03:28:42.120
is the ultimate institution to get something for nothing.
link |
03:28:44.980
You get a perpetual income stream,
link |
03:28:49.680
the ability to acquire more and more territory in the world
link |
03:28:53.260
through monopolizing the supply of money.
link |
03:28:56.620
And you can literally print money.
link |
03:28:59.260
You can buy your way out of anything
link |
03:29:01.300
and buy your way into anything in the world.
link |
03:29:03.740
So it is, I think the most, not say the most,
link |
03:29:08.900
but a group of very intelligent people
link |
03:29:10.820
put this thing together and figured out
link |
03:29:12.740
how to get something for nothing in perpetuity
link |
03:29:17.780
by clouding people's conception of money.
link |
03:29:20.540
And if we look at the central bank is,
link |
03:29:24.780
it's been around for a while,
link |
03:29:25.700
but the latest implementation here in the US is the Fed.
link |
03:29:29.420
It's about a hundred years old.
link |
03:29:30.540
It's an analog age institution that I think has lost
link |
03:29:34.240
a lot of its relevance in the modern age.
link |
03:29:37.900
And I don't think it will survive
link |
03:29:40.160
the ever galvanizing gaze of the digital age.
link |
03:29:43.020
There's just too much sunlight, too much transparency today.
link |
03:29:47.020
Ideas move too quickly for something like this
link |
03:29:49.380
to remain relevant.
link |
03:29:51.300
But they are just people.
link |
03:29:53.980
They are just seeking something for nothing.
link |
03:29:55.740
But I think when you concentrate that much power
link |
03:29:58.220
and that much control, that much wealth
link |
03:30:00.340
into the hands of few, it does change.
link |
03:30:04.980
Hayek argued that the nature of power,
link |
03:30:09.300
again, it's something that we all sort of desire.
link |
03:30:11.580
To be completely powerless, you're really unhappy, right?
link |
03:30:14.100
If you're totally powerless, you're a slave.
link |
03:30:16.340
Someone else tells you what to do.
link |
03:30:17.700
You have no autonomy.
link |
03:30:18.980
It's miserable, right?
link |
03:30:20.580
So there's this, it makes the consolidation
link |
03:30:23.140
of power alluring and that we want to protect ourselves
link |
03:30:25.880
from that slave state, let's say.
link |
03:30:28.360
But like many things, it can be taken too far.
link |
03:30:31.660
And when you concentrate power into too few hands,
link |
03:30:35.480
Hayek argues that it actually transforms.
link |
03:30:38.460
It becomes something much more intoxicating
link |
03:30:41.020
than it would be if it was held in a more distributed way.
link |
03:30:44.140
And I think that gets into a lot of these,
link |
03:30:47.380
I don't know if they call themselves elites
link |
03:30:50.200
or people call them elites or whatever,
link |
03:30:51.720
like let's say shareholders of central banks,
link |
03:30:54.920
people participating in the World Economic Forum,
link |
03:30:56.760
things like this.
link |
03:30:59.260
They come, I guess the incentives, right?
link |
03:31:01.700
The incentive schema they're in is rewarding them constantly,
link |
03:31:05.400
telling them everything they're doing,
link |
03:31:06.680
saying and thinking is correct
link |
03:31:08.000
because they just keep getting richer all the time.
link |
03:31:10.880
And it leads you closer to this definition of evil,
link |
03:31:15.140
which in the book, Paradise Lost,
link |
03:31:19.200
Friedman said, evil is the force
link |
03:31:20.940
which believes its knowledge is complete.
link |
03:31:23.740
So these people become more and more convinced
link |
03:31:27.380
that they have the plan or they have the course of action
link |
03:31:32.180
that will save the world,
link |
03:31:33.280
that if everyone would just listen to them,
link |
03:31:35.640
that they would lead us to the promised land, right?
link |
03:31:38.000
Whether this is Bill Gates saving us from a climate crisis
link |
03:31:41.160
or any of these other economic policies
link |
03:31:44.560
that are targeted at a certain outcome,
link |
03:31:46.420
but almost always diverge almost perfectly
link |
03:31:49.300
from that outcome, creating its opposite effect.
link |
03:31:53.560
I think that's the problem,
link |
03:31:55.600
that we have this mechanism that can concentrate wealth
link |
03:31:58.700
and power into the hands of so few
link |
03:32:01.440
that it leads to the proliferation of evil,
link |
03:32:05.660
meaning that it convinces people
link |
03:32:06.980
that their knowledge is complete.
link |
03:32:08.280
Whereas something like a Bitcoin
link |
03:32:12.760
almost forces the opposite outcome.
link |
03:32:17.480
In a Bitcoin denominated world, a pure free market,
link |
03:32:22.220
the consumer is sovereign.
link |
03:32:24.480
So you cannot earn value in the world
link |
03:32:28.000
unless you are serving your fellow man,
link |
03:32:30.520
unless they have expressed through their buy and sell
link |
03:32:34.060
decisions in the marketplace, right?
link |
03:32:35.800
You've created a satisfaction of a particular want
link |
03:32:39.560
that they value so much,
link |
03:32:41.520
they've acquired so much of your good or service
link |
03:32:43.160
that you've become rich.
link |
03:32:45.180
You can only maintain that position of wealth
link |
03:32:47.200
so long as you continue to serve your fellow man.
link |
03:32:49.960
So it changes the incentives such that dominance
link |
03:32:54.240
in the world can no longer be paired with coercion.
link |
03:32:59.080
It has to be paired with competence.
link |
03:33:01.660
And that's how this, when we say Bitcoin fixes this,
link |
03:33:05.460
that's what we mean.
link |
03:33:06.300
Like it restores that skin in the game,
link |
03:33:09.320
that balance of incentives and disincentives
link |
03:33:11.380
that help us properly navigate reality.
link |
03:33:13.920
And it prevents the buildup of systemic rot
link |
03:33:17.280
like we see with the central bank.
link |
03:33:20.240
What books?
link |
03:33:21.400
People love this question.
link |
03:33:23.120
And you're exceptionally well read.
link |
03:33:25.840
You've explored all kinds of ideas.
link |
03:33:28.200
Is there some books, technical, fiction, philosophical,
link |
03:33:31.960
coloring books, children's books had an impact on your life
link |
03:33:35.680
and you would maybe recommend to others
link |
03:33:38.760
that they should read?
link |
03:33:39.860
I think we mentioned a couple of them here today,
link |
03:33:43.160
but I think a really useful triplet of books
link |
03:33:49.180
that I've been recommending recently
link |
03:33:51.760
to help diffuse this materialist worldview of reality
link |
03:33:56.080
where we still think in kind of the Newtonian model
link |
03:33:58.920
that it's atoms and cause and effect.
link |
03:34:03.440
I'd first recommend Jordan Peterson's book,
link |
03:34:05.160
Maps of Meaning.
link |
03:34:06.160
It's a deep dive into mythology
link |
03:34:11.240
and how it's developed over the course of history
link |
03:34:14.160
and how it's reflected both in our social structures
link |
03:34:17.260
and our intra psychic nature really,
link |
03:34:21.360
and how they come to reflect one another in a way.
link |
03:34:23.320
Like the way we think again shapes the world
link |
03:34:25.800
and then the way the world is shaped,
link |
03:34:26.960
shapes the way we think.
link |
03:34:29.760
That's an excellent book.
link |
03:34:30.800
It's very dense and difficult read.
link |
03:34:33.480
Actually this trilogy is pretty brutal.
link |
03:34:35.360
Probably take you a year to read, hours a day.
link |
03:34:39.440
The second one I mentioned earlier
link |
03:34:40.640
was Human Action by Mises.
link |
03:34:44.320
The ultimate tome on Austrian economics
link |
03:34:46.560
will help explicate this realm of relevance.
link |
03:34:50.240
I think that economics truly is where again,
link |
03:34:56.040
there are things and then these things become means or ends
link |
03:35:00.080
once we channel our purpose through them.
link |
03:35:03.200
So this realm of non materialist relevance
link |
03:35:07.520
that I think is really important to grasping economics
link |
03:35:10.480
at a first principles level,
link |
03:35:11.720
I think that book lays it out tremendously.
link |
03:35:15.400
And then the last one would be,
link |
03:35:16.480
I think I mentioned this at the beginning,
link |
03:35:17.560
was that book Lila by Robert Persig,
link |
03:35:19.960
where he's making the case that value is fundamental.
link |
03:35:23.800
And all of these books,
link |
03:35:25.640
they kind of all point to that actually.
link |
03:35:27.560
They're pointing back to value being the fundamental thing,
link |
03:35:31.080
values expressed through moral action
link |
03:35:35.320
as being the fundamental substrate of reality.
link |
03:35:37.920
So if you're like me, I grew up quite scientific minded.
link |
03:35:42.040
It'll help diffuse some of that
link |
03:35:43.320
and maybe retrain you to the other side of reality.
link |
03:35:47.520
So you said these books are difficult.
link |
03:35:49.200
Maybe you can comment on which aspect is difficult.
link |
03:35:52.800
Is it just the technical nature?
link |
03:35:54.400
Is it the length?
link |
03:35:55.320
Is it the depth of the ideas
link |
03:35:56.880
or how long it takes to integrate them?
link |
03:35:58.880
And more sort of importantly,
link |
03:36:01.720
is there recommendation advice you can give
link |
03:36:04.200
on how to integrate these ideas,
link |
03:36:09.480
how to read, how to learn in the spaces there
link |
03:36:13.840
from your own life?
link |
03:36:15.200
Like how do you enjoy taking in ideas?
link |
03:36:17.000
And this could be for these books,
link |
03:36:18.160
but also in the Bitcoin world
link |
03:36:21.120
and reading a bunch of different ideas written by others,
link |
03:36:24.520
just integrating stuff, even watching podcasts
link |
03:36:28.200
and all those kinds of things.
link |
03:36:29.680
Yeah, I'm a reader.
link |
03:36:31.440
I love to read.
link |
03:36:33.720
One of the most useful things I've ever done
link |
03:36:35.960
was take a speed reading course.
link |
03:36:38.920
I actually think there's a version of this
link |
03:36:40.120
available on Tim Ferriss's website.
link |
03:36:41.640
It's like a 30 minute speed reading course.
link |
03:36:44.280
It's all about eye movement.
link |
03:36:45.760
Instead of moving your eye continuously line over line,
link |
03:36:48.600
it's more about jumping in your brain.
link |
03:36:50.600
You can train your brain to just absorb words
link |
03:36:53.560
in their totality versus kind of reading word by word.
link |
03:36:56.960
And also not, I haven't fully taken that journey actually,
link |
03:37:00.800
but I remember taking a few steps on that journey,
link |
03:37:05.400
realizing that I'm speaking inside my head.
link |
03:37:08.640
Yeah.
link |
03:37:09.480
I'm saying the words inside my head
link |
03:37:10.840
and that's actually getting in the way.
link |
03:37:12.200
That's right.
link |
03:37:13.040
So there's a lot of little hacks like that.
link |
03:37:15.080
I maybe lazily, now that you mentioned,
link |
03:37:17.880
I'll have to revisit this.
link |
03:37:19.320
But I have convinced myself that I don't need to read faster
link |
03:37:23.720
because that's not ultimately the bottleneck.
link |
03:37:25.440
The bottleneck is in me thinking about stuff.
link |
03:37:28.360
In fact, I like reading really slowly
link |
03:37:30.440
or so I convinced myself.
link |
03:37:32.800
Because ultimately it's not about gaining more information.
link |
03:37:35.520
It's about time spent thinking deeply.
link |
03:37:38.680
Yes, yes.
link |
03:37:40.280
But maybe that's just me being very lazy
link |
03:37:43.280
because yes, it's true.
link |
03:37:44.200
It's important to think deeply,
link |
03:37:45.480
but maybe I could speed up the consumption of information.
link |
03:37:49.360
It's fine.
link |
03:37:50.440
I like to be dynamic actually.
link |
03:37:51.880
So usually speed reading initially
link |
03:37:55.320
and that diffused that internal dialogue for me
link |
03:37:58.400
because when I was reading one word at a time,
link |
03:37:59.720
I was having that too.
link |
03:38:00.560
You almost get a feedback in your own head
link |
03:38:02.080
when you're reading the word out loud
link |
03:38:03.240
and it's clouding your thoughts.
link |
03:38:04.640
If you're speed reading, you can't do that.
link |
03:38:06.560
You're taking in groups of words at a time
link |
03:38:08.640
so you can't internally verbalize it, I guess.
link |
03:38:13.080
And then I also am really big on annotating,
link |
03:38:15.560
underlining, writing in the margins.
link |
03:38:17.720
I prefer a physical book,
link |
03:38:20.000
but I also read the Kindle a lot
link |
03:38:21.400
because it's just so convenient.
link |
03:38:23.120
Anywhere you're waiting in line or every night before bed,
link |
03:38:25.440
I'm reading my Kindle.
link |
03:38:27.080
And I also advocate rereading a lot.
link |
03:38:30.120
So if you found something that struck you at a deep level
link |
03:38:34.560
or you found particularly fascinating,
link |
03:38:36.080
like you have to listen to that.
link |
03:38:37.520
That's your, I don't know, your mind or your spirit signal
link |
03:38:41.360
that that is something meaningful to you
link |
03:38:43.520
and you should, to your point, reread it,
link |
03:38:46.320
sit with it for a long time, write about it.
link |
03:38:49.200
And that becomes the ultimate triumvirate
link |
03:38:52.880
of synthesizing an idea, actually.
link |
03:38:55.000
If you can read about it and then write about it
link |
03:38:59.440
and then go and talk about it,
link |
03:39:01.000
you get this crystallization of understanding
link |
03:39:03.040
that's just not possible doing any one of the three
link |
03:39:05.520
or any two of the three.
link |
03:39:08.120
So I definitely highly recommend people to do that.
link |
03:39:12.560
And in terms of how are those books difficult?
link |
03:39:16.280
I mean, and if you're reading a lot of books,
link |
03:39:18.120
are difficult, I mean, in every way,
link |
03:39:19.680
they're all long books.
link |
03:39:22.520
In terms of density, I would say Lila is the less,
link |
03:39:26.600
the least dense, maybe Maps of Meaning.
link |
03:39:32.120
I don't know, but Maps of Meaning
link |
03:39:33.280
and Human Action are both extremely dense.
link |
03:39:35.760
But they're just, I had to read those books very slow.
link |
03:39:40.160
That you just have to take your time with them.
link |
03:39:42.600
To give you an idea with Jordan Peterson,
link |
03:39:44.040
he's said this a lot with Maps of Meaning.
link |
03:39:46.920
He spent three hours a day writing for 15 years
link |
03:39:50.240
to write that book.
link |
03:39:51.160
It's probably, I think it's a 600 page book.
link |
03:39:53.680
He said he estimates he rewrote every sentence
link |
03:39:55.720
in the book 50 times, five, zero,
link |
03:39:58.920
to try and get it just perfected.
link |
03:40:01.840
And when you read these sentences,
link |
03:40:05.040
you can tell that he rewrote it 50 times.
link |
03:40:08.640
I've used actually Anki for spaced repetition.
link |
03:40:13.800
It's like a piece of, it's an app.
link |
03:40:15.560
I'm not sure if you're familiar with it,
link |
03:40:17.000
but it allows you to load in facts or terms
link |
03:40:22.040
or entire paragraphs.
link |
03:40:24.200
And then it brings them, you review them every day
link |
03:40:29.600
and then it brings them up less and less often over time
link |
03:40:33.560
as you show yourself being able to remember
link |
03:40:36.160
the thing that you wanted to memorize.
link |
03:40:39.440
And oftentimes when I'm reading,
link |
03:40:41.320
what I want to memorize is the key idea.
link |
03:40:43.880
But also like I use it for, I'm terrible with names.
link |
03:40:47.160
So I'm starting to use it for names too,
link |
03:40:49.240
names of people, names of like people
link |
03:40:52.040
that I want to remember.
link |
03:40:53.560
And also throughout history and also in my own personal life
link |
03:40:56.560
but also events, you know, dates to me
link |
03:40:59.040
are usually not important,
link |
03:41:00.200
but sometimes dates are really important.
link |
03:41:03.040
And so it's really useful.
link |
03:41:04.440
I recommend it highly.
link |
03:41:05.280
Naval, I think mentioned a piece of software
link |
03:41:08.680
called Readwise or something like that,
link |
03:41:11.560
that I hope I'm saying that correctly.
link |
03:41:14.640
It's something like that.
link |
03:41:16.280
And what it does is it goes to your highlights
link |
03:41:18.920
from your Kindle or the various places
link |
03:41:23.000
where you highlight stuff that integrates with Goodreads.
link |
03:41:27.760
And it does the same kind of spaced repetition
link |
03:41:29.960
but for things you've highlighted.
link |
03:41:31.640
So it sends an email every day.
link |
03:41:35.960
It's been really, I recommend it highly
link |
03:41:38.360
because it sends like to me an email form,
link |
03:41:43.440
a selection of the things I've highlighted
link |
03:41:45.360
and previous things I've read.
link |
03:41:47.120
And it's like this weird like shock to your memory
link |
03:41:52.360
that sprinkles like I have probably way too much Orwell
link |
03:41:56.760
in there and it just kind of like, it brings you back.
link |
03:42:00.240
And these ideas are, because what you realize,
link |
03:42:03.240
depending on how you highlight, but at least for me,
link |
03:42:07.280
and I think it's probably true for a lot of people,
link |
03:42:08.880
the things you've highlighted had at that moment
link |
03:42:11.360
and like an emotional impact on you.
link |
03:42:13.840
And so like these things are just like hitting you hard
link |
03:42:16.200
again, it's like, whoa, it might not be meaningful
link |
03:42:19.520
to anyone else except you.
link |
03:42:20.720
And it's something I recommend.
link |
03:42:23.240
You never know with these like hacks or tools and so on,
link |
03:42:25.760
like what's actually BS and what is amazing.
link |
03:42:29.440
And that one is kind of amazing.
link |
03:42:31.360
So at least for me, it works for me and Naval.
link |
03:42:34.600
I think he's the one.
link |
03:42:35.760
Read wise you said. Read wise.
link |
03:42:37.920
Or something close to that.
link |
03:42:39.920
It could be read something else,
link |
03:42:41.480
like read wealth or something.
link |
03:42:43.680
The one other thing I really like,
link |
03:42:46.840
and this is more of a new one,
link |
03:42:48.080
is I used to always listen to music at the gym,
link |
03:42:50.920
but now I've just, because I'm so backlogged on podcasts,
link |
03:42:54.280
right, there's so many, I exclusively listen to podcasts
link |
03:42:59.160
when I'm walking or when I'm at the gym,
link |
03:43:00.440
anytime I'm doing something that I can't read basically.
link |
03:43:03.820
And I think there's something really special
link |
03:43:07.000
about exercise and ideation.
link |
03:43:09.340
I mean, I don't know if this happens to everyone,
link |
03:43:12.360
but my creative juices just go ballistic.
link |
03:43:14.480
When I'm at the gym, like I hit a certain point of,
link |
03:43:17.520
I guess, heart rate and you're sweating enough,
link |
03:43:19.480
then the ideas just start to flow.
link |
03:43:21.760
So I'm basically at the gym now listening to podcasts,
link |
03:43:25.440
exercising as fast as I can to try to get to that state of,
link |
03:43:30.880
you know, where you're just straining,
link |
03:43:31.880
your strenuous exercise, I guess you would say,
link |
03:43:34.320
and then I end up typing notes into my phone
link |
03:43:36.320
as fast as I can with all these ideas that are flowing.
link |
03:43:39.160
So I've created a lot of good writing out of that.
link |
03:43:42.520
Yeah, it's kind of work.
link |
03:43:43.560
So I do running quite a bit, so running outside,
link |
03:43:47.900
and I'll listen to, I've been, okay,
link |
03:43:51.520
I told myself this has been going on for about a year,
link |
03:43:55.000
is I only listen, like the stuff that's either World War II
link |
03:44:00.000
or World War I related.
link |
03:44:01.840
So Hitler, Stalin, like difficult historical stuff.
link |
03:44:09.800
And also listen to brown noise.
link |
03:44:13.160
So those are the two modes.
link |
03:44:14.480
So brown noise helps me, this is like white noise,
link |
03:44:18.420
but like deeper, I guess, it helps me remove the world.
link |
03:44:22.560
And at the gym, there's a lot of distractions.
link |
03:44:24.840
When you're running, there's a lot of distractions.
link |
03:44:26.600
It helps me remove the world.
link |
03:44:27.680
So one, I'll be listening to difficult historical ideas.
link |
03:44:32.400
And then when my mind is all of a sudden
link |
03:44:34.240
starting to generate ideas,
link |
03:44:36.480
I'll listen to brown noise and then force myself to think.
link |
03:44:40.080
It's kind of, it's meditative in a sense,
link |
03:44:44.400
and your mind wants to be lazy.
link |
03:44:46.440
You want to, it's hard, man, like running and thinking
link |
03:44:51.600
in the sense that some of the ideas
link |
03:44:53.720
that come into your head are pretty heavy.
link |
03:44:56.240
It's about your own life, your own demons come in there,
link |
03:44:59.600
but also just difficult ideas
link |
03:45:01.600
that require you thinking through
link |
03:45:02.920
and persevering through that,
link |
03:45:05.440
like not letting yourself get lazy
link |
03:45:07.120
and thinking through it has been really for me rewarding
link |
03:45:10.480
in the same way that you're saying it is for you.
link |
03:45:13.920
It's true that like podcasts and music,
link |
03:45:16.840
like shallow, like funny podcasts or music
link |
03:45:20.920
have been a kind of filler distraction.
link |
03:45:23.360
But informational podcasts, like podcasts
link |
03:45:27.000
that have some depths of ideas or audio books
link |
03:45:30.920
have been truly rewarding.
link |
03:45:32.600
I try to listen now less and less to podcasts
link |
03:45:34.960
that are just fun,
link |
03:45:37.760
because I feel like I enjoy it too much
link |
03:45:39.600
and I don't allow my mind to get bored
link |
03:45:41.840
and to think through stuff, to explore ideas.
link |
03:45:45.000
It's so easy to fill the space
link |
03:45:49.240
that usually would be filled with thought
link |
03:45:52.680
and instead fill it with fun podcasts.
link |
03:45:55.680
Like there's a bunch of comedy podcasts I really enjoy.
link |
03:45:58.280
So there's value to that, of course,
link |
03:46:00.240
but you have to realize it's entertainment.
link |
03:46:02.200
It's not, you don't get much value except entertainment.
link |
03:46:07.280
Right, right.
link |
03:46:08.120
And there's utility to the boredom too, I think,
link |
03:46:10.800
where to give your mind the space,
link |
03:46:15.360
I guess your subconscious,
link |
03:46:16.440
maybe the space to chew on some of these problems, right?
link |
03:46:19.080
Where you've imbibed so much knowledge,
link |
03:46:21.960
you've highlighted and thought about something,
link |
03:46:23.400
but then you need to stop thinking about it for a while
link |
03:46:25.720
and let it marinate in the subconscious.
link |
03:46:27.920
And then these flashes of insight
link |
03:46:30.880
that people have described,
link |
03:46:32.080
sometimes I get them in the middle of the night,
link |
03:46:33.440
like I just wake up from a dream and have them
link |
03:46:35.040
and I got to write it down
link |
03:46:35.880
or sometimes just in nature taking a walk.
link |
03:46:38.760
But I think that's very important too.
link |
03:46:40.440
We can't just brute force our way into understanding.
link |
03:46:44.040
There's this interplay between
link |
03:46:46.040
kind of the brute force reading intake
link |
03:46:47.680
and then just relaxing, meditating, sleeping, being bored,
link |
03:46:52.280
letting your subconscious do the heavy lifting.
link |
03:46:56.120
And there's, you should be aware of the fact
link |
03:46:59.200
that there's a war for your attention going on.
link |
03:47:01.120
So there's a lot of,
link |
03:47:02.720
there's been better and better and better mechanisms
link |
03:47:05.520
that are designed to steal your attention.
link |
03:47:08.480
So I kind of see it as a war zone
link |
03:47:10.840
between my right for boredom
link |
03:47:15.240
and the internet wanting your attention.
link |
03:47:17.240
In fact, Clubhouse as an app has been,
link |
03:47:21.960
I'm probably not gonna use Clubhouse much anymore.
link |
03:47:24.560
There's some aspect of my own inner loneliness
link |
03:47:27.760
and whatever it is that pulled me into Clubhouse
link |
03:47:31.120
a little bit too much to where it robbed me
link |
03:47:33.480
from that lonely time alone
link |
03:47:36.400
where I sit and listen to Bruce Springsteen
link |
03:47:38.080
and think about life, right?
link |
03:47:39.640
So I wanna.
link |
03:47:40.640
That's way more important.
link |
03:47:41.680
That's way, well yeah, at least it's all in balance
link |
03:47:44.520
because there is a Clubhouse like a lot
link |
03:47:47.200
of these social networks when you use right
link |
03:47:48.760
can be a way to discover new ideas, new people.
link |
03:47:52.120
But the boredom is just being alone
link |
03:47:55.160
with your thoughts is priceless.
link |
03:47:57.320
Absolutely.
link |
03:47:58.160
And you gotta know yourself, right?
link |
03:47:59.520
Like it took me a long time to realize I need solitude.
link |
03:48:03.200
Like just how I'm wired, how I'm built.
link |
03:48:05.320
I need like an hour a day solitude.
link |
03:48:07.400
So you gotta listen to that part of yourself.
link |
03:48:08.860
You might be compromising something like that
link |
03:48:11.740
where you feel like you always need to be
link |
03:48:12.960
with your girlfriend or whatever it may be.
link |
03:48:14.560
But I would suggest listening to that voice.
link |
03:48:18.120
Yeah, I try to, I tried to remember things
link |
03:48:20.840
that made me feel good over time.
link |
03:48:23.020
Like longterm had positive impact
link |
03:48:25.400
and longterm had negative impact
link |
03:48:27.680
and do more of the former and less of the latter.
link |
03:48:31.120
We don't often think like that.
link |
03:48:33.160
You know, we talked offline about like carnivore diets
link |
03:48:35.560
for example, I try to remember
link |
03:48:38.880
that carbs don't make me feel good.
link |
03:48:40.720
Yeah.
link |
03:48:41.960
In the moment it's hard to remember that.
link |
03:48:43.520
It's hard, it's hard.
link |
03:48:45.000
But you have to remember that that's the case.
link |
03:48:47.920
And in the same way, exercise,
link |
03:48:51.880
it's hard to remember that exercise makes me feel good.
link |
03:48:56.160
Like especially when it's time to go to the gym, right?
link |
03:48:58.000
Especially when it's time to go to the gym.
link |
03:48:59.360
But you should remember that
link |
03:49:00.560
because the kind of person you are without exercise,
link |
03:49:03.840
for me, just like you beautifully said
link |
03:49:06.360
that you have to know yourself.
link |
03:49:07.400
The kind of person I am without exercise
link |
03:49:10.560
is a less good person, a person I'm less proud of.
link |
03:49:15.640
The food thing is so hard.
link |
03:49:16.920
By the way, I still, you know,
link |
03:49:19.840
I can't tell you how many times I've learned the lesson,
link |
03:49:21.840
like don't eat that.
link |
03:49:23.520
But then, you know, you go a few weeks
link |
03:49:25.160
of not eating whatever that is,
link |
03:49:26.960
and you're feeling good.
link |
03:49:28.280
And then you're, I don't know,
link |
03:49:29.840
something creeps up inside you.
link |
03:49:30.880
Like, ah, you could just have one or you could just do this.
link |
03:49:33.080
But for me, it's sugar.
link |
03:49:34.160
Like sugar just makes me feel terrible.
link |
03:49:36.880
But I always, not always, but if it's been a long time,
link |
03:49:40.040
I start to make that exception in my mind.
link |
03:49:41.560
Like, oh, you can have a little bit.
link |
03:49:43.000
And then I eat it and I feel terrible.
link |
03:49:44.120
So I don't know how many times I've done that dance,
link |
03:49:45.880
but it's not cool.
link |
03:49:47.400
Well, it depends on how painful it is
link |
03:49:48.760
and then you learn the lesson.
link |
03:49:49.960
I actually embraced the fact
link |
03:49:51.800
that I'll never learn the lesson with vodka.
link |
03:49:54.560
Every time I drink, especially with Russians,
link |
03:49:57.720
is like, I quit drinking every time.
link |
03:50:00.280
And then I forget, there's like a slow drop off.
link |
03:50:02.880
It'll be like two weeks and then.
link |
03:50:05.000
Na zdorovie.
link |
03:50:05.840
Na zdorovie, very good.
link |
03:50:08.560
So it never makes you feel good.
link |
03:50:12.040
It never results in anything good
link |
03:50:15.200
except the beautiful social chaos,
link |
03:50:20.040
which is ultimately somehow, there's value to chaos too.
link |
03:50:24.680
There's value to that.
link |
03:50:25.720
Whatever the hell stupid stuff you do when you get trashed.
link |
03:50:29.120
The over the top emotion of love usually
link |
03:50:32.840
or whatever camaraderie, there's value to that too.
link |
03:50:36.160
Like as I get older, I realize,
link |
03:50:39.600
because the world,
link |
03:50:43.040
sometimes especially when you get older
link |
03:50:44.400
and the world wants you to be an adult,
link |
03:50:47.520
in order to maintain the youthful spirit,
link |
03:50:49.440
you have to use all the tools you can.
link |
03:50:51.720
Alcohol is one of them.
link |
03:50:53.680
To do all the stupid shit you can,
link |
03:50:55.480
even if you're like getting older.
link |
03:50:57.920
To lower the inhibitions.
link |
03:51:00.000
Again, it's that taste of uncertainty
link |
03:51:01.920
that is the sweetness of life, right?
link |
03:51:03.440
To be able to go out and be a flaneur at a party
link |
03:51:06.520
and not really know what you're gonna do.
link |
03:51:08.160
And we have this draw to the wild side of life.
link |
03:51:12.800
As much as we try and build up order around ourselves,
link |
03:51:15.400
I think there's always gonna be an appetite for that.
link |
03:51:18.560
I've always, most of my life,
link |
03:51:21.080
I've always been a social drinker,
link |
03:51:23.000
but I actually gave up alcohol a year ago.
link |
03:51:25.280
And I would add that to the idea,
link |
03:51:30.880
the repertoire for dealing with bigger ideas
link |
03:51:33.160
because alcohol is fun, it's amazing, good times.
link |
03:51:39.240
It can be analgesic, it can give you all these benefits
link |
03:51:42.320
if you use the right amounts.
link |
03:51:43.880
But I got to the point personally
link |
03:51:46.520
where I was trying to wrestle with these ideas
link |
03:51:48.400
that are just so much bigger than me.
link |
03:51:50.280
And I have this backlog of books
link |
03:51:52.400
that was growing faster than I could read them
link |
03:51:55.160
that I just reached a point where I decided
link |
03:51:58.400
I wanted to start making sacrifices toward attaining that.
link |
03:52:01.520
And alcohol was just an easy one.
link |
03:52:03.680
It's you spend,
link |
03:52:05.960
even if you just drink socially on the weekends,
link |
03:52:08.160
you're probably spending five to 10 hours drinking
link |
03:52:12.280
and then maybe another, what?
link |
03:52:13.560
Five to 10 hours recovering perhaps on the day after.
link |
03:52:19.120
So it was a difficult transition initially,
link |
03:52:23.000
but once you get through a couple of months,
link |
03:52:25.880
I feel amazing without it.
link |
03:52:27.200
I sleep better than ever.
link |
03:52:28.760
My workouts are better than ever.
link |
03:52:30.680
I'm sharper than ever.
link |
03:52:31.640
I'm more lucid.
link |
03:52:33.040
So I'm not trying to be a proponent for not drinking,
link |
03:52:35.840
but I just want to say.
link |
03:52:36.680
But you're a proponent for sacrifice.
link |
03:52:38.200
I am a big proponent for sacrifice, yes.
link |
03:52:40.840
Is there advice you would give to a young person today
link |
03:52:43.680
curious about Bitcoin,
link |
03:52:45.280
curious about how they succeed in the world
link |
03:52:50.560
or both career wise and just in life in general?
link |
03:52:55.440
I mean, the strongest piece of advice I have for,
link |
03:52:58.360
this is beyond just Bitcoin.
link |
03:53:01.120
This is you managing your own personal and financial affairs
link |
03:53:05.920
is that you need to invest in knowledge first.
link |
03:53:11.640
It's not good enough to just follow the crowd
link |
03:53:15.720
and buy a 60, 40 portfolio and put it in a Roth RA
link |
03:53:20.040
and plan on social security.
link |
03:53:22.120
I mean, the world's changing much faster
link |
03:53:25.640
than any existing institution
link |
03:53:28.920
is going to be able to keep up with.
link |
03:53:31.160
So that's why I like,
link |
03:53:33.400
I mean, that's why I named the show,
link |
03:53:34.600
the question, what is money?
link |
03:53:35.600
Like, I think that to me is the rabbit
link |
03:53:38.960
that took me down the rabbit holes.
link |
03:53:40.240
Like just asking that question naturally progressed
link |
03:53:43.880
to these other questions.
link |
03:53:45.040
Like what is value?
link |
03:53:46.160
What is government?
link |
03:53:47.160
What is the purpose of society?
link |
03:53:50.320
Speech, all of these things.
link |
03:53:52.360
So I would encourage people to arm yourself
link |
03:53:57.480
with knowledge and study.
link |
03:53:58.600
And like that, a lot of financial people
link |
03:54:01.600
always give you a line of advice
link |
03:54:04.200
and then say, this is not financial advice.
link |
03:54:06.000
I'm like, this is financial advice.
link |
03:54:07.600
Like study, study, learn.
link |
03:54:12.040
Knowledge is power.
link |
03:54:13.200
Yeah.
link |
03:54:14.040
This is official financial advice.
link |
03:54:16.040
And you're exercising your divine trait,
link |
03:54:19.120
which is the logos, right?
link |
03:54:22.320
That we are these animals
link |
03:54:24.920
that can tell and believe stories.
link |
03:54:26.440
So it feels like almost a sacred duty
link |
03:54:28.960
to really sharpen that part of ourselves
link |
03:54:31.680
and use it to create the best world possible.
link |
03:54:36.960
And then the second one was the,
link |
03:54:39.000
I think health and fitness stuff.
link |
03:54:40.560
I was, maybe everyone does this in their 20s.
link |
03:54:45.960
They just live a little fast and beat themselves up.
link |
03:54:49.440
Not that I wasn't, like I was living well
link |
03:54:54.120
and successful by a lot of measures,
link |
03:54:58.280
but I wish I had maybe got my act together
link |
03:55:00.360
a little bit sooner.
link |
03:55:04.400
I just think.
link |
03:55:05.240
Health wise, morality wise.
link |
03:55:07.480
Yeah, drinking, I think morality and eating.
link |
03:55:11.320
I just was kind of doing whatever I wanted in some ways.
link |
03:55:14.840
Let's say.
link |
03:55:16.520
Is there a value to a trajectory
link |
03:55:18.000
that includes a lot of mistakes?
link |
03:55:19.880
So maybe you're supposed to make the mistakes in your 20s.
link |
03:55:22.520
That's a great point.
link |
03:55:23.360
Maybe the 20s are all about the mistakes.
link |
03:55:25.480
Accumulate the most mistakes possible.
link |
03:55:27.000
Yeah, I don't.
link |
03:55:28.000
As quickly as possible.
link |
03:55:30.640
I don't regret any of it,
link |
03:55:32.240
but now that I'm kind of in this place where I feel good
link |
03:55:35.600
and I know the value of a good night's sleep
link |
03:55:37.680
and just, I've more deeply explored my own potential
link |
03:55:42.240
that I feel maybe a little regretful
link |
03:55:44.120
that I didn't do this earlier is all I'm saying.
link |
03:55:46.160
So maybe just exploring different sides of yourself.
link |
03:55:50.560
See what it's like to go and make a bunch of mistakes
link |
03:55:52.640
and be wild and crazy
link |
03:55:53.920
and then maybe try to walk the straight and narrow
link |
03:55:55.360
for a few months and just see what it's like.
link |
03:55:58.360
There's probably a guy doing vodka shots right now
link |
03:56:02.120
listening to this podcast with his buddies
link |
03:56:03.960
and if you are, please take a shot for us
link |
03:56:07.520
for all the mistakes you should make in your 20s.
link |
03:56:11.240
And what about love?
link |
03:56:18.000
We talked about money is ultimately a mechanism
link |
03:56:21.880
by which you can pave a moral path through life.
link |
03:56:29.640
To me, one of the purest expressions
link |
03:56:31.720
that is love broadly defined for a family, for others,
link |
03:56:36.080
for knowledge, for the world,
link |
03:56:38.080
is basically an optimistic open view to the world
link |
03:56:40.840
that embraces all that is beautiful about this world.
link |
03:56:44.800
So do you think about love often in a personal sense,
link |
03:56:51.200
romantic, family, friendship, and in the broad sense
link |
03:56:54.920
about its value in a successful life?
link |
03:56:59.920
Yeah, of course.
link |
03:57:01.440
I'm blessed to have a two and a half year old daughter
link |
03:57:04.600
and love is a word we throw around.
link |
03:57:09.160
I love these potato chips, I love you, man.
link |
03:57:11.400
I love you, my daughter.
link |
03:57:12.760
It's got so many different intensities,
link |
03:57:15.560
I guess you might say.
link |
03:57:19.840
I don't know, my intuition is that
link |
03:57:23.480
it is something very fundamental to the universe.
link |
03:57:27.200
Again, I know words don't do it justice,
link |
03:57:29.120
but if we just proxy love with selfless action,
link |
03:57:34.320
the whole damn universe is selflessly acting, right?
link |
03:57:38.400
It's just unfolding and it may sound a bit hippy dippy,
link |
03:57:43.760
but my intuition is just that love
link |
03:57:45.160
is the core of it somehow.
link |
03:57:48.920
I don't have anything to back that up really, it's just.
link |
03:57:51.920
In the way you're framing it, it's making me think
link |
03:57:55.160
that love, we talked about sort of meditation,
link |
03:58:00.040
is as opposed to thinking from an egocentric perspective
link |
03:58:05.680
of you, the individual operating in this world,
link |
03:58:08.280
is allowing you to be empathetic towards the world
link |
03:58:10.960
and thereby think of the universe,
link |
03:58:13.440
think of the world acting through you.
link |
03:58:15.840
Almost like accepting this notion that ideas have you,
link |
03:58:20.680
you don't have ideas,
link |
03:58:22.840
that you're not existing in the universe,
link |
03:58:25.240
the universe is existing through you.
link |
03:58:27.240
It's sort of like, that's what selfless in that context means
link |
03:58:32.400
is like embracing that thought.
link |
03:58:34.600
That's a weird thought.
link |
03:58:36.560
It's a weird thought that we're just here for a little bit
link |
03:58:38.640
of time, these meat vehicles, receptacles,
link |
03:58:45.120
and this much bigger thing is just using us,
link |
03:58:51.560
not in a malevolent way, but just like a river flows,
link |
03:58:55.960
is using us to create more and more beautiful things.
link |
03:58:59.160
Yes, yes, more and more beautiful things.
link |
03:59:01.920
We are the universe experiencing itself, frankly, right?
link |
03:59:06.120
So.
link |
03:59:06.960
That's a trippy thought, man.
link |
03:59:08.160
Yeah.
link |
03:59:09.480
That in some sense the universe created us
link |
03:59:12.200
to experience itself.
link |
03:59:13.800
And we are one of the highest forms of beauty
link |
03:59:17.800
that nature has created, right?
link |
03:59:19.280
If we just think one of the most complex
link |
03:59:23.320
and adaptive thing, we're a reflection of nature.
link |
03:59:26.640
And another thing that comes to mind here is that
link |
03:59:30.440
Dalio has this quote where he says, truth or more accurately,
link |
03:59:36.360
an accurate depiction of reality is necessary
link |
03:59:39.600
for any good outcome.
link |
03:59:42.400
So when we think that love or value is primary,
link |
03:59:47.400
I think that too reinforces this thesis
link |
03:59:49.880
that acting out of love or acting out of proper moral action,
link |
03:59:54.840
you're best reflecting the fundamental nature of reality.
link |
03:59:58.320
Therefore, you're best creating the best possible outcomes
link |
04:00:01.040
or the things of the most beauty,
link |
04:00:02.200
whether that's your artistic expression,
link |
04:00:03.920
your children, your business, whatever it is.
link |
04:00:07.960
And Jordan Peterson goes deep into that
link |
04:00:09.640
where you have to listen to that sense of meaning
link |
04:00:12.640
in your life.
link |
04:00:13.640
Or you might have some decision on paper
link |
04:00:15.280
that's so great this way, but your heart says no,
link |
04:00:18.280
your heart says otherwise.
link |
04:00:22.040
I've tried to listen to my heart throughout
link |
04:00:24.160
and I think that creates the best outcomes.
link |
04:00:26.440
But nevertheless, does it make you sad
link |
04:00:30.240
that you in particular, Robert,
link |
04:00:34.400
are gonna be dead pretty soon?
link |
04:00:38.160
As we talk about scarcity, one of the certain things
link |
04:00:42.280
that ensure the scarcity of the human experience
link |
04:00:45.920
is the fact that you and your consciousness
link |
04:00:48.440
are gonna be done, they have a deadline.
link |
04:00:51.480
Only time and Bitcoin are absolutely scarce.
link |
04:00:54.320
I'm fortunate, I guess I got started
link |
04:01:03.200
on this philosophical journey a bit when I was younger,
link |
04:01:05.480
but I got into Musashi and Sun Tzu quite a bit,
link |
04:01:11.280
who wrote, Musashi wrote the Book of Five Rings,
link |
04:01:16.160
Sun Tzu wrote The Art of War.
link |
04:01:17.400
And one of the things that, I mean,
link |
04:01:19.880
these guys were just absolute beasts.
link |
04:01:22.880
They lived and died by the sword
link |
04:01:24.440
and they were just very great equanimity
link |
04:01:28.880
about all things in life.
link |
04:01:30.240
And I also found this kind of in the stoic philosophy
link |
04:01:32.880
where they just are very cool with everything.
link |
04:01:37.440
And one of the lines there is that the way of the warrior
link |
04:01:40.560
is the resolute acceptance of death.
link |
04:01:43.560
And so I've always tried to think about that.
link |
04:01:45.120
Like, of course I experienced fear,
link |
04:01:46.920
I experienced everything that you do on a meat suit, right?
link |
04:01:51.800
Like anxiety and all the things,
link |
04:01:53.280
but I always try to have that higher order view of myself
link |
04:01:58.320
and that it's just a certain experience occurring
link |
04:02:02.640
at a certain level,
link |
04:02:03.680
but it shouldn't override your kind of highest order self.
link |
04:02:06.960
That's just resolutely accepted death
link |
04:02:09.720
and that this is your one play in life.
link |
04:02:13.520
So hopefully that propels me towards proper action.
link |
04:02:18.520
I think scarcity cannot help, but lead to something good.
link |
04:02:25.040
Just like with this conversation,
link |
04:02:26.760
sadly must come to an end.
link |
04:02:29.280
The scarcity of it is what makes it beautiful.
link |
04:02:31.400
So Robert, this was one of my favorite conversations
link |
04:02:35.920
philosophically and in every other level,
link |
04:02:40.040
just the ideas and the way you express them around Bitcoin,
link |
04:02:44.360
around morality, around money.
link |
04:02:47.100
Has been really inspiring and really educational.
link |
04:02:51.260
And I'm glad you're out there fighting the good fight.
link |
04:02:54.120
And I'm glad you're wasting all of this time with me.
link |
04:02:57.020
It was really fun.
link |
04:02:58.340
And thank you for coming down to Texas
link |
04:03:01.680
and having some good old brisket together.
link |
04:03:05.020
This was really fun, man.
link |
04:03:06.580
This was awesome.
link |
04:03:07.920
Thanks for having me, man.
link |
04:03:09.980
Thanks for listening to this conversation
link |
04:03:11.660
with Robert Breedlove.
link |
04:03:13.060
And thank you to Fundrise, Element, Mugpack, and BetterHelp.
link |
04:03:18.540
Check them out in the description to support this podcast.
link |
04:03:21.980
And now let me leave you with some words
link |
04:03:24.060
from Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
link |
04:03:26.420
"'Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness.
link |
04:03:29.940
"'The resilient resists shocks and stay the same.
link |
04:03:33.620
"'The antifragile gets better.'"
link |
04:03:36.420
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.