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Robert Breedlove: Philosophy of Bitcoin from First Principles | Lex Fridman Podcast #176


small model | large model

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The following is a conversation with Robert Breedlove, someone who caught my attention
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and was recommended highly as a rigorous scholar and thinker in the space of decentralized
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finance and Bitcoin.
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His podcast titled What Is Money is a good representation of the way his mind works.
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He's willing to talk through ideas for many hours, willing to listen, willing to think,
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which makes him a great companion and conversation to explore the history, philosophy, and future
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of money.
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Quick mention of our sponsors, Fundrise, Element, Monkpak, and BetterHelp.
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Check them out in the description to support this podcast.
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As a side note, let me say that I'll have a number of conversations in the coming months
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on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
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None of these conversations are financial advice.
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That's not a legal warning.
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That's a genuine description of my goals and approach with these chats.
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At least for a while, I personally won't actively invest in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies
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except to learn about the technology itself.
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I don't think this should be a journalistic standard like The New York Times trying to
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establish, which I very much disagree with.
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In my humble opinion, I think journalists should be free to invest in Bitcoin if they
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want to.
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Luckily, I'm not a journalist.
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I just know my own psychology and I feel that my thinking will be muddled by excitement
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if I invest before I understand.
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I feel the same way about Tesla, for example, I still don't own any Tesla stock and I am
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still indeed fascinated by Tesla autopilot as an artificial intelligence system.
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I work hard to be cognizant of the biases that arise in my mind and always try to choose
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the path that maximizes or maintains a freedom of thought as much as possible.
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Also, let me say that I try to be very careful in selecting guests based not only on the contents
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of their ideas, but the richness, complexity, music, style of their mind and character.
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Yes, I will talk with people with whom you and I may disagree, people who some may call
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bad or even evil human beings.
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I want to understand them because I believe that as Solzhenitsyn said, the battle line
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between good and evil runs through the heart of every man.
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I think if you always run from evil, you become blind to the truth of human nature.
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This is the Lex Friedman podcast and here is my conversation with Robert Breedlove.
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Rousseau opens his 1762 book, The Social Contract, with the following statement.
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Man is born free and everywhere he is in chains, so you talk about freedom and sovereignty
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quite a bit.
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What do these ideas mean to you, the idea of sovereignty?
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Freedom and sovereignty, I think they're very closely related.
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Let's start just focusing on sovereignty, which is a word I don't think we talk about
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enough.
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The general definition of that I would give is the authority to act as you see fit.
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It's a word that's etymologically associated with words like monarchy, money, rain.
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Historically, it's referred to whatever the locus of supreme power is in the sphere of
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human action.
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Whether if you go back into ancient Egypt, the pharaoh had absolute sovereignty and everyone
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else was pretty much operating according to his interest.
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You fast forward to today, modern Western democracy.
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We have more decentralized sovereignty in that we all get to go vote and elect officials
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that make decisions on our behalf.
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The theme of sovereignty across history is that it's been gradually decentralizing across
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our different models of socioeconomics.
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You could say it's rooted heavily in the money, I would argue, which is something we'll get
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a lot into here.
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If you have money, you have the authority to act as you see fit in the world.
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Even in our current political sphere, if you have enough money, you can actually reshape
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the rules.
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You can reshape laws.
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You can lobby Congress.
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If you're in a certain situation like many billionaires, you can negotiate your own tax
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treaty such that you can get favorable tax treatment with certain jurisdictions in the
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world.
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This concept of sovereignty, which today we call, it's common to call states or nation
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states or government sovereign, meaning that they have power over people.
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As I argue in a lot of my writing, I actually think that sovereignty inheres within the
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individual and that we each have our own interiorized space of choice, which is something like
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Victor Franco called the final human freedom, and that we, no matter what our circumstances
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are, no matter what exogenous situation we face, we always have this endogenous power
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to choose how we respond to it.
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That's one of my favorite books is Man's Search for Meaning.
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You can break that apart a little bit.
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You've spoken about sovereignty as a closely linked power, but is there something about
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your own mind being able to achieve sovereignty, no matter what the monetary system is, no
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matter what, who has the control over centralized power, the money, or whatever the mechanisms
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of sovereignty at the societal level.
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Use an individual isn't ultimately all boiled down to what you can do with your mind, how
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you see the world, how you interpret it.
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Yes.
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I agree.
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As we get a little bit deeper into this, I think we'll come to see money as an extension
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of your mind.
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There's a feedback between money and mind.
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For instance, you think in dollars today, almost guarantee it.
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Most of us do here in the US.
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It's a tool.
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It's a tool we're using to decomplexify the world around us, to deal with it, to understand
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the sacrifices and successes across an entire history of economic transactions.
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We can boil that all down to the price, so it's data compression.
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If you can change, if there's a central body or central governance mechanism that can manipulate
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that money, it can have an impact on your mind.
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For instance, today, I agree with you on the first hand, say that I do believe in free
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will.
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I do believe in individual autonomy, but I also think that there are certain devices
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and powers in the world around us that can actually influence how we think.
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It's fascinating to think about the fact that money might be actually deeply integrated
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into the way we think and into our mind.
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You think about what are the core aspects of the human mind, what influences cognition,
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the way you reason about the world.
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You have the Chomsky languages at the core of everything, but you're placing money as
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pretty close to the core of what it means to be an intelligent reasoning human.
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I think money is a direct derivation of action and speech, actually.
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It's another expression of the logos.
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If we even think of what it means to think, is that we are generating two different courses
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of action, potential courses of action, and we're populating them with avatars, maybe
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ourselves or others, and then we're comparing how we may act in each situation and what
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we think the result would be.
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Actually, it's comparison, basically, it's comparison and contrasting of possible courses
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of action.
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That's the same thing with words themselves.
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Most words, the vast majority of words, only have meaning in relationship to other words.
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It's all contextual definitions of a word or more words.
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People have argued with me about this because there is a first word where you pick up rock
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and say rock, but most other words in higher abstraction tend to be relative.
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What's funny about action and speech, and this gets, I got into a bit of this in our
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paper here, is that it's linked to evolutionary biology, and that once human beings adopted
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upright stance, we no longer needed our hands for locomotion.
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We started to evolve more dexterity, and notably, we have opposable thumbs.
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This gives us an ability to manipulate and particularize the environment in a way that
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most other animals cannot.
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What's interesting about this is that as we gain this ability to manipulate natural resources
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and count, point, pointing was a big deal, and that we could indicate prey or items at
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a far off distance, and we could organize ourselves.
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At the same time, we co evolved this fine musculature in the face and tongue.
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It's as if speech developed, co evolved really with our dexterity.
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As a natural extension of that came us making tools.
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We started to create things to better satisfy our wants over time, and the most tradable
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tool in any society, or the most tradable thing, is money.
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I argue that action and speech are quintessential modes of self sovereign expression, and the
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money is just a tech layer we've put right on top of that, and that it's a natural derivation
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of action and speech.
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Okay, that's fascinating to think about sovereignty from the evolutionary perspective, and then
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ultimately money is the technology layer that enables sovereignty.
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It's really fascinating to think about our modern human society as deeply rooted in these
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evolutionary roots from the very origins of life on earth.
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Some of the ideas you just mentioned, what do you see are some interesting characteristics
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of just life on earth that propagated to us humans?
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What ideas propagated to have roots in the evolution?
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Yeah, I think one of the deepest impulsions in life is the territorial imperative.
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All life is seeking to expand its dominion over space and time.
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We think about, again, physically with space, it's advantageous to an animal or an organism
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to have more territory under its control to raise offspring.
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It's all about reproductive fitness at the end of the day.
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We could also think of reproduction itself as the genetic impulse to replicate oneself
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across time, so it's territoriality across time in a way.
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This is very common in most animals.
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Not all animals are territorial, but many are.
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You see very interesting behaviors resulting from territoriality.
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This is animal combat, the reason birds sing is territoriality, a number of other things.
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It's my hypothesis, and others have shared this hypothesis as well, that mankind is clearly,
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I think, what are your territorial species, and that he expresses this territoriality
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in property rights.
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We hear that word.
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We typically think of an asset.
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We think of, oh, this house or this stock or whatever, but property is actually the socially
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acknowledged relationship between a human and an asset, such that you have exclusive
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rights and responsibilities to a particular asset.
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It is not the asset itself, so property, it's information.
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It's a relationship.
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By the way, my mind was just blown.
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Property is information.
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It's not the actual asset.
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That's really important.
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Very important.
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That's really interesting.
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Yeah.
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Then it comes down to how do we organize ourselves such that the contributions people are making
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are commensurate with the consideration they're receiving.
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If you're adding value to a piece of property, you're developing a piece of land for use,
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in theory, to be fair, you should have the rights to that fruit, if you go out and plant
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a garden or whatever it may be.
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This is rooted in natural law, where we have rights to life, liberty, and property.
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There's the fundamental layer of morality and capitalism, frankly.
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You could think of, to get really primordial with it, the first capitalist in the world,
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just to get some definitions out here, I'll say capitalism versus communism or socialism
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as the spectrum I'll speak on.
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The first capitalist in the world would be the guy, the caveman, that maybe dug a little
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hole for himself to shield himself from the elements.
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Maybe there was a rainstorm, a snowstorm, and he dug a little enclave and he protected
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himself.
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I thought you were going to go, because he said primordial, I thought you were going
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to go back to earlier biological systems.
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I guess primordial for humans.
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Then the first communists or socialists would be someone that decided the fruits of his
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labor belong to him, so he would have violently encroached on that individual and taken his
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plot for himself for his own use.
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That's the spectrum across which capitalism in the pure sense and communism in the pure
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sense operate, in that capitalism, each individual has the exclusive rights to the fruits of
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their labor.
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Anything they spend their time, effort, energy, creating in the world, they own the rights
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to that and they can trade those rights with others, other self owned people that have
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done similar things.
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Communism or socialism would imply that other people, typically the state, have the rights,
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at least some rights to the value you've created.
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There's this interesting moment when that first caveman, that first capitalist drew
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a line, circle in this cave and said, this is mine.
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You could say it was free to be claimed at the time he claimed it.
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But, it's an interesting moment when asset becomes an asset.
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When space time, as you were referring to, becomes something that's now, can be possessed
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by a human being.
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Is there something special about this moment because it feels like, first of all, in terms
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of space and time, it feels like there's a lot of available space time yet to be claimed.
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If we just look at the universe, we're talking about, there's a funny thing with Elon Musk
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and Mars, I think they sneaked in there for SpaceX, that nobody on Earth has any authority
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on Mars.
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This is a very interesting question.
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It seems almost like humorous at this time, but perhaps not, perhaps there'll be sections
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of space, not just on planets, that are going to be even fought over.
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Is there something special about this moment because in discussing violence and respect
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for property, it feels like this is a special moment because ultimately conflict arises
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when you make claims on a particular territory.
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It's not always in conflict where people say, when you look at Hitler or something, for
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example, his claim would be in many of the lands that he attacked and invaded that this
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is ultimately, this has always belonged to Germany.
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Is there something you could say as to what it means to own an asset or a property?
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Yeah.
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In the ancient days of hunters and gatherers, we could say that property was mostly a loyal
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title, which meant it's just whatever you can defend.
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If you've got knives and daggers and satchels and maybe some pelts you've hunted, whatever
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you can hold and defend is yours.
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There's not like there's a government to appeal to, you're just a free agent operating
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in the wild defending the assets you can protect on you, more or less.
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What really changed the nature of property is when we get into the agricultural age.
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There's a big flip where we went from just foraging and hunting all the time, constantly
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moving, trying to stay alive to deciding, we're going to settle here.
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We figured out how to cultivate crops, we can increase the population because we can
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harvest more energy from the sun and we can establish a longer term civilization.
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What happens in that transition is that we begin creating economic surplus.
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For the first time in history, we have stockhouses of grain to defend or maybe meat or cattle
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or whatever it is we're creating, we now have savings.
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It's at that time when government emerges as well because once you have savings or you
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have an economic surplus, you have something that other people want to steal.
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This one thing we'll touch on a lot today is people always want something for nothing.
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People are always seeking the path to get something for nothing.
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I think that drives a lot of our decision making and actually encourages us to be innovative
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in a lot of ways.
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You could say it's our laziness, it's helping us be inventive in a way, we're trying to
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accomplish greater results with less efforts over time, but we can cross that line in seeking
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something for nothing where we start to violate the life, liberty and property of others.
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That's where we shift from kind of capitalistic society to something more communistic.
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That's what government is.
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It's a protection producing enterprise for the economic surplus generated by a trading
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society.
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When people begin to trade, they create what's called the division of labor, which is a very
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common economic term.
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Basically means you're better at making hats, I'm better at making boots.
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If you specialize in hats, I specialize in boots and we trade, we've created a positive
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sum game for you and I both benefit.
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We become collectively more than the sum of our parts through trade.
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That's why human beings do trade because we become more energy efficient as a result.
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We create more outputs per unit of input.
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You could think of government in that respect, if we're looking at maybe in a tech sense
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that the economy is the trade network that generates wealth, generates innovation, generates
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all, this whole lap of luxury we live in today that we've inherited from our forebears is
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from the market.
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It's not from a government.
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The government is the network security, if you will.
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We're paying expenses to a vendor to protect peace, to preserve life, liberty and property
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in that network so that we can have, when there's inevitably disputes over private property,
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we can have nonviolent dispute resolution in the rule of law.
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We can have a reasonable expectation of being able to conduct commerce without violence.
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The problem has been that the protector tends to, they're in a monopolistic position, we
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would say.
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They tend to start abusing that position to obtain property for themselves, again, trying
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to get that something for nothing.
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When you control, you are the security guard for the economy.
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The first thing they tend to monopolize is money because if you can control the money,
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you're effectively controlling people, their energy, their perceptions.
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That becomes a, particularly through inflation, becomes an avenue to get something for nothing
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and that you can just print more money that everyone else is forced to sacrifice their
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time and energy to obtain.
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What are your thoughts about anarchism?
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I talk quite a bit, he'll be here in a few days actually, Michael Malice, about ideas
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of anarchy and his idea or the idea of anarchists is that any amount of government will eventually
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become the very kind of thing that you're referring to.
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There's almost no way to have a government that doesn't then try to monopolize power,
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money and all those kinds of things.
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Do you think it's possible to have a government sort of on that spectrum of like anarchy,
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maybe libertarianism, I'm not sure how exactly the spectrum goes, but where you have a small
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government that protects the liberty and property rights and those kinds of things and doesn't
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expand to then also control the monetary system and all those other things?
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Is it possible?
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Agreed, agreed completely.
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It was not possible until Satoshi Nakamoto.
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So for the first time in history, we have a money that cannot be monopolized, cannot
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be corrupted, cannot be changed, cannot be weaponized, frankly.
link |
00:21:34.520
Our current monetary system is weaponized by those who can print money against those
link |
00:21:38.560
who cannot.
link |
00:21:41.920
And I think when you have at the heart of every modern economy, which even we could
link |
00:21:47.480
say the US, we pride ourselves as free market capitalists, we outcompeted communism in the
link |
00:21:53.480
20th century.
link |
00:21:54.480
We think that this is the superior model.
link |
00:21:58.560
Most business people will tell you that the free market is the best allocator of resources,
link |
00:22:03.840
all of these things.
link |
00:22:05.440
But what we have at the heart of every modern economy, including the US, is an anti capitalistic
link |
00:22:09.920
institution, which is the central bank.
link |
00:22:13.640
The temptation to monopolize money throughout all of history has been too strong for anyone
link |
00:22:17.400
to resist.
link |
00:22:18.800
So even benevolent, quote unquote, dictators that have taken over, many dictators have
link |
00:22:24.400
inherited, say, an inflationary regime where society is coming apart because someone was
link |
00:22:28.720
clipping the coins or someone was printing too much money, and they'll commit to going
link |
00:22:32.320
back to a hard money standard.
link |
00:22:34.240
So they'll keep society on a gold standard, for instance, such that they cannot violate
link |
00:22:40.440
the money to benefit themselves.
link |
00:22:43.120
But inevitably over time, because it is a political institution, there's an incentive
link |
00:22:49.640
there, again, to get something for nothing, to spend more than you're making through
link |
00:22:55.520
tax revenues.
link |
00:22:57.680
And with that incentive, people typically ultimately end up pursuing that inflationary
link |
00:23:01.840
path.
link |
00:23:03.560
So we get deeper into that about inflation is a term that we've been conditioned to
link |
00:23:09.480
think today is just something normal, the prices just go up, and then it's pertinent
link |
00:23:14.760
to a healthy economy.
link |
00:23:16.760
But it's actually, if you look at it from real first principles, it is just theft integrated
link |
00:23:21.760
into the money.
link |
00:23:22.760
It's a technology backdoor is another way to think about it.
link |
00:23:25.520
You wouldn't buy a cell phone knowing that someone could siphon your data off your private
link |
00:23:30.040
calls and sell it into the market.
link |
00:23:31.640
Now, I know we do that with a lot of social media stuff today, and that's something else
link |
00:23:34.600
we can get into, but you wouldn't do it willingly, right?
link |
00:23:37.640
You prefer that your cell phone and your data was monetized by you, or if you're going to
link |
00:23:42.640
sell it, you would be able to selectively sell it.
link |
00:23:46.000
Inflation is that it's similar, it's a tech backdoor.
link |
00:23:49.200
So it's a money that only a few people can siphon value off of, surreptitiously, typically
link |
00:23:57.480
slowly, but eventually, as we've seen throughout history, that slowly builds up into it rapidly
link |
00:24:02.520
and then causes the monetary system to collapse.
link |
00:24:05.520
Do you think there's a benefit to inflation possibly?
link |
00:24:10.160
So when you have perfect information, perhaps you don't need inflation, perhaps it is purely
link |
00:24:15.400
theft, but I think of inflation as like the snooze button on the alarm.
link |
00:24:22.000
So if you have a hard standard, you better wake up when the alarm rings, but all of us
link |
00:24:27.320
kind of like probably shouldn't, but use the snooze button, it's like, okay, well, five
link |
00:24:31.720
more minutes or 10 more minutes.
link |
00:24:33.560
And then you're saying there's naturally a slippery slope where you become a drug that
link |
00:24:39.280
you fall in love with in your abuse.
link |
00:24:42.240
But nevertheless, the usefulness of the snooze button is that you don't know how you'll be
link |
00:24:47.920
actually feeling when the alarm rings.
link |
00:24:50.400
You might be able to ready to pop up, or you might be like, you really need those few more
link |
00:24:54.520
minutes to psychologically get yourself out of bed.
link |
00:24:58.240
This metaphor is just not working at all.
link |
00:25:00.000
But do you think there's a use to inflation sometimes from like an economics perspective?
link |
00:25:06.960
I think the drug metaphor is a little more apt in that inflation does provide an immediately
link |
00:25:13.120
stimulative effect when used early on.
link |
00:25:19.840
But what it's doing is it's, again, we talk about the balance between incentives and disincentives.
link |
00:25:27.640
That being necessary for a system to function properly.
link |
00:25:32.040
With inflation, you're essentially giving the people that can print money a way to dampen
link |
00:25:38.320
the disincentives they face.
link |
00:25:40.920
So it destroys feedback loops, I guess you might say.
link |
00:25:46.680
And another way to look at this is when you, so using inflation, using quantitative easing,
link |
00:25:52.360
you can decrease short term volatility in the marketplace.
link |
00:25:57.000
So the market is basically this idea, this form of free exchange that's trying to zero
link |
00:26:03.120
in on the best ideas.
link |
00:26:04.600
And the ideas are those that are most fit to reality, to satisfying the most wants.
link |
00:26:08.920
It's going to overshoot.
link |
00:26:09.920
It's going to undershoot.
link |
00:26:10.920
You have these little business cycles.
link |
00:26:12.080
But when it's undershooting and you're experiencing business recession, in a capitalist environment,
link |
00:26:19.160
the market needs to clear that malinvestment, that misallocation of capital.
link |
00:26:23.320
I mean, someone made a bet on a certain idea that it would satisfy wants in a particular
link |
00:26:27.440
way, and that bet did not pan out.
link |
00:26:29.560
If you then paper over the losses that business is creating, you're now delaying and exacerbating
link |
00:26:35.680
the volatility that that idea created.
link |
00:26:39.280
So this is kind of a Tullibian concept where you can dampen short run volatility, but volatility
link |
00:26:46.880
is truth.
link |
00:26:48.840
Volatility is us matching our ideas to reality.
link |
00:26:53.480
We're constantly, again, overshooting and undershooting.
link |
00:26:55.280
So you delay volatility, you're just amplifying it and exacerbating it in the long run.
link |
00:27:01.280
And that's what Central Bank is doing.
link |
00:27:02.720
The Central Bank mandate is low unemployment and low and expected inflation, basically.
link |
00:27:13.400
And so they're trying to achieve economic growth in a stable way, quote, unquote, stable
link |
00:27:19.360
way.
link |
00:27:20.360
This is their ostensible purpose.
link |
00:27:22.480
And that's just not possible.
link |
00:27:24.080
Growth is an inherently unstable process.
link |
00:27:27.880
Can you elaborate a little bit about the nature of volatility?
link |
00:27:33.440
Why is it communicating truth?
link |
00:27:37.280
That's something that a lot of people are afraid of is the volatility.
link |
00:27:40.560
It's like it's a sign of chaos.
link |
00:27:44.360
So they want to escape chaos.
link |
00:27:48.520
But you're saying that that's actually, whether it's chaos or not, I don't know, but it's
link |
00:27:54.040
getting us closer to the fundamental reality that we should not be trying to escape.
link |
00:28:00.120
Yeah.
link |
00:28:01.120
So if we consider that the universe is pervaded by entropy, this is the second law of thermodynamics.
link |
00:28:08.760
Because every closed system tends towards greater disorder over time.
link |
00:28:13.600
And that life itself, again, I would argue, expressed through the logos, we, life, is
link |
00:28:20.520
the antientropic principle.
link |
00:28:21.920
It's the only thing that's converting entropy into order, chaos into order.
link |
00:28:26.840
And that's what entrepreneurs are doing.
link |
00:28:30.000
We're living at the edges of the known.
link |
00:28:32.800
And we're testing ourselves against the entropy of nature, trying to figure out new and better
link |
00:28:38.440
ways of saying, doing or making things.
link |
00:28:41.120
And then if we do crack a code or figure something out, we then have a big incentive, the incentive
link |
00:28:46.040
is to get rich, right?
link |
00:28:47.040
Because then you have a new idea that you could then sell back into the marketplace.
link |
00:28:51.000
So it's this sequence of courageously confronting the entropy of nature and converting it into
link |
00:28:59.600
good and useful order, which by the way is like the ancient idea of God and Genesis,
link |
00:29:04.120
which I think is interesting, that actually enables us to construct civilization in these
link |
00:29:10.360
layers of antientropy or order, you might say.
link |
00:29:15.000
So today we live in a bubble of, of antientropy or order, you know, like the coastlines are
link |
00:29:22.160
guarded by the nation and the city has a certain police force that keeps it in order.
link |
00:29:29.120
Even the way we talk, like there's clearly the words matter, but also the nonverbal cues,
link |
00:29:34.040
all these things are like order that has been established over many, many, many thousands
link |
00:29:38.840
of years of human evolution.
link |
00:29:42.000
And I think that when I say volatility is truth, what I'm saying is that the experience
link |
00:29:49.080
of uncertainty is something that's ineradicable from life, right?
link |
00:29:54.080
And certainty, like it's kind of a paradox because it's, we're fighting against it, right?
link |
00:29:58.960
We're trying to innovate our way away from uncertainty to give us, to create more capital,
link |
00:30:03.680
which capital is very simply a way of mitigating uncertainty.
link |
00:30:09.600
So this is why you might have like a stash of food in case, you know, the power goes
link |
00:30:13.720
out or a generator, like it helps you overcome uncertainty over time.
link |
00:30:17.960
But uncertainty is also where all the sweetness of life is.
link |
00:30:21.480
So there's got to be this balance with one foot in, one foot out.
link |
00:30:24.520
So human society is this kind of bubble of order that we've constructed and slowly expanding,
link |
00:30:30.560
but at the edges you're always going to have that chaos, that volatility, and that the
link |
00:30:34.720
entrepreneurs are kind of like jumping into that chaos and some of them die and some of
link |
00:30:41.280
them succeed.
link |
00:30:42.280
And so like if you want to grow this bubble of order, you have to be embracing the volatility
link |
00:30:50.480
at the edges.
link |
00:30:53.480
And reverence for entrepreneurship, because these are the people putting their neck out,
link |
00:30:59.040
so to speak, risking themselves.
link |
00:31:01.400
And they're going to contribute to society, by the way, whether they go up in flames
link |
00:31:04.480
or not.
link |
00:31:05.480
If they go up in flames, society has witnessed their experience as something not to do or
link |
00:31:09.600
something that doesn't work in a particular time and place, so that you could say they're,
link |
00:31:13.760
them going up in flames is a way of enlightening the rest of us.
link |
00:31:16.960
Or if they figure something out, you know, Steve Jobs creates the iPhone, changes the
link |
00:31:21.200
world forever.
link |
00:31:22.200
So enlightening the rest of us.
link |
00:31:24.640
And Taleb would say, the fire of their failure, okay, yeah, exactly.
link |
00:31:29.520
Taleb would say individual fragility is inseparable from ensemble anti fragility.
link |
00:31:38.680
So this means that, again, every time that entrepreneur goes up in flames or say a restaurant
link |
00:31:44.120
goes out of business, when a restaurant goes out of business, that particular cuisine strategy
link |
00:31:49.400
they were implementing in that particular time and place, that's a signal to all the
link |
00:31:52.440
other restaurants in the area that that doesn't work.
link |
00:31:55.000
So restaurant food improves from bankruptcy to bankruptcy.
link |
00:31:59.760
So is this death of the individual components that contributes to the growth of the ensemble?
link |
00:32:05.560
As a smaller side, maybe you can guide me through it.
link |
00:32:07.840
I don't know if you're paying attention, but there was some chaos around Taleb and the
link |
00:32:14.000
Bitcoin community.
link |
00:32:15.560
I wasn't quite paying attention.
link |
00:32:18.120
But from my outsider's perspective, I thought Taleb was a supporter of Bitcoin.
link |
00:32:24.680
And then a lot of people were very upset about something.
link |
00:32:26.880
I'm sorry if I don't know the details, but can you pull out some profound philosophical
link |
00:32:32.560
ideas from the disagreement of the chaos?
link |
00:32:34.800
I admittedly don't know too much about it either.
link |
00:32:38.360
I have a big fan of his writing.
link |
00:32:41.560
He's always been a little different in person.
link |
00:32:45.880
He signed one of my books, I met him in person.
link |
00:32:48.920
He's got a very abrasive personality, he's kind of known for it.
link |
00:32:52.320
I don't think I'm passing any judgment here, he sort of embraces it.
link |
00:32:56.120
But he had written the foreword to a really important book in Bitcoin called the Bitcoin
link |
00:33:01.160
Standard for safety in Amuse.
link |
00:33:03.960
And then I think they had a little Twitter beef because safety is very much against COVID
link |
00:33:10.160
mask and state intervention, whereas Taleb's on the other side of the fence.
link |
00:33:15.480
And then after that beef, Taleb came out against Bitcoiners saying, oh, Bitcoiners are crazy
link |
00:33:20.800
and wrong.
link |
00:33:21.800
I think the great mask debate of the 2020 will probably be the thing that ultimately
link |
00:33:26.360
leads to World War III.
link |
00:33:28.360
I've been very surprised how tense, how much division this one little arguably silly thing
link |
00:33:37.640
has led to.
link |
00:33:39.080
I think a lot of people sort of project their, it's almost like not wearing a mask is a statement
link |
00:33:44.680
of sovereignty, of freedom, of like saying, fuck you to the man, the government, the centralized
link |
00:33:49.840
power, or the dishonesty, or the, in the scientific community, all those kinds of things.
link |
00:33:56.440
And then wearing a mask is a sort of kind of signaling of various kind of social aspects.
link |
00:34:03.600
I don't know.
link |
00:34:04.600
I'm not paying attention to it.
link |
00:34:05.600
I actually tuned out, I was part of a group of scientists that were looking into like
link |
00:34:09.520
do masks work, this very interesting question.
link |
00:34:12.080
To me, it was an interesting question, I sort of roll in to ask that very interesting question,
link |
00:34:17.720
because I think it is an interesting scientific question.
link |
00:34:20.600
But then I quickly realized that just as I was doing this like scientific exploration
link |
00:34:25.480
of this very interesting question about viral particles, like what kind of things like from
link |
00:34:31.120
a scientific perspective, how do we prevent the spread of a pandemic, forget COVID, any
link |
00:34:35.360
pandemic, super deadly or not deadly.
link |
00:34:38.160
Like there's tools, there's testing, there's masks, there's all these tools.
link |
00:34:41.680
How well do they work?
link |
00:34:43.320
And then I realized, you know, in April or so, it became a tool of politics, a tool of
link |
00:34:49.000
philosophy.
link |
00:34:50.000
And that's when I sort of pulled out.
link |
00:34:52.000
So it's fascinating.
link |
00:34:53.000
I think it's a canvas on which people project their emotions and I guess until I got caught
link |
00:34:59.680
up in that kind of, so there's nothing fundamental, I suppose, to their disagreement.
link |
00:35:04.760
Not that I'm aware of, but he's written some about in his books, the problem with centralization.
link |
00:35:13.200
I mean, a lot of his writing addresses that and he actually points to, I think Switzerland
link |
00:35:18.560
is the best government in the world because it's decentralized.
link |
00:35:23.000
So there's that.
link |
00:35:25.080
I don't think he has any, I'm not to speak for him, but I don't think he's voiced any
link |
00:35:30.800
specific critiques on Bitcoin per se.
link |
00:35:34.760
Could be wrong about that.
link |
00:35:35.760
It's just maybe his flavorful language and the way he likes to communicate.
link |
00:35:39.680
And the other theory is that maybe he's playing 4D chess and having a Twitter boating accident,
link |
00:35:44.240
you know?
link |
00:35:45.240
So I don't believe in Bitcoin.
link |
00:35:46.240
I've sold on my Bitcoin and.
link |
00:35:47.960
Oh, I see.
link |
00:35:49.560
Yeah.
link |
00:35:50.560
Sorry, the boating accident in Bitcoin is this, I guess it's proverbial by this point
link |
00:35:56.680
where it's the way you lose your Bitcoin.
link |
00:35:59.480
So if someone comes after you and says, hey, you know, whether it's a government or an
link |
00:36:03.000
individual is coming after you, so you can give me all your Bitcoin or pay these taxes
link |
00:36:06.320
in Bitcoin, you go, oh, I had a boating accident and lost them all.
link |
00:36:09.360
Lost them all.
link |
00:36:10.360
So, yeah.
link |
00:36:13.600
But back to the fundamental nature of space time, let me ask you, because we're kind of
link |
00:36:18.600
left it.
link |
00:36:19.600
I'd like to go back to this idea of that you said that everything we think say or do occurs
link |
00:36:27.200
within the bounds of space time.
link |
00:36:31.200
So first of all, maybe you can comment on what do you mean in this context about space
link |
00:36:35.760
time, but also about the nature of truth, like how much of all of this is noble?
link |
00:36:43.560
How much of this is accessible to us humans?
link |
00:36:46.440
How much uncertainty, like we're talking about, is there in the world?
link |
00:36:50.960
Are you, do you fall into a place where we can reason deeply about this world and it's
link |
00:36:56.280
noble or is it mostly chaos and we're just holding on for dear life?
link |
00:37:00.680
Yeah, I think I said that all action occurs within the bounds of space time.
link |
00:37:05.520
The other thing, everything we say, do or make, the other thing is that everything we
link |
00:37:09.560
say, do or make starts out as an idea.
link |
00:37:12.560
So there's this concept of universal Darwinism, which basically applies Darwinian principles
link |
00:37:19.960
but outside of the biological sphere.
link |
00:37:22.000
So we could say that this kind of gets into Richard Dawkins memetics, that even ideas
link |
00:37:25.840
are competing, reproducing, recombining.
link |
00:37:29.160
That idea is so powerful, by the way.
link |
00:37:30.800
I don't think it's been understood fully.
link |
00:37:34.320
I think in the digital, in the 21st century, in the digital world, from my perspective
link |
00:37:40.440
in artificial intelligence, there's yet to be some profound things to be discovered about
link |
00:37:45.320
this whole construct.
link |
00:37:47.440
Agreed completely.
link |
00:37:48.960
It's been called an acid, actually, in that it just, it strips away all of the non informational
link |
00:37:55.440
components of something.
link |
00:37:56.440
It just strips it down to its bare bones.
link |
00:37:59.320
I have a quote in here somewhere about that, but...
link |
00:38:01.560
All right, so which is called an acid, the ideas?
link |
00:38:04.160
The universal Darwinism.
link |
00:38:06.240
Darwinism applied broadly, outside of the...
link |
00:38:08.320
I mean, broadly.
link |
00:38:09.320
And I would all condition all of this with saying that a lot, most of my thinking is
link |
00:38:14.520
shaped by a book I read recently called The Case Against Reality, which introduced me to
link |
00:38:19.960
this concept.
link |
00:38:20.960
But it tied into Darwinism that I've used more broadly in the past, looking at things
link |
00:38:24.600
like money and economics.
link |
00:38:26.360
So the book, The Case Against Reality, by Donald Hoffman, he has a quote in the book
link |
00:38:32.680
that describes universal Darwinism.
link |
00:38:34.760
It says, quote, universal Darwinism can, without risk of refuting itself, address our key question.
link |
00:38:41.600
Does natural selection favor true perceptions?
link |
00:38:44.840
If the answer happens to be no, then it hasn't shot itself in the foot.
link |
00:38:49.160
The uncanny power of universal Darwinism has been likened by the philosopher, Dan Dennett,
link |
00:38:54.120
to a universal acid.
link |
00:38:56.840
And Dan Dennett says, quote, there is no denying at this point that Darwin's idea is a universal
link |
00:39:01.640
solvent, capable of cutting right to the heart of everything in sight.
link |
00:39:05.760
The question is, what does it leave behind?
link |
00:39:08.040
I have tried to show that once it passes through everything, we are left with stronger, sounder
link |
00:39:12.560
versions of our most important ideas.
link |
00:39:15.960
Some of the traditional details perish, and some of these are losses to be regretted,
link |
00:39:20.480
but good riddance to the rest of them.
link |
00:39:22.360
The remains is more than enough to build on, unquote.
link |
00:39:26.480
So the way I would interpret that is that life itself, I've come to view life as information
link |
00:39:33.960
propagating through flesh, and that we are, I guess, DNA is a quadratic code.
link |
00:39:42.800
I think it's four letters, maybe, versus the binaries, zeros and ones.
link |
00:39:46.720
And we are ideas.
link |
00:39:48.160
We are strategies competing with each other.
link |
00:39:51.200
But nature is that which selects.
link |
00:39:54.400
It's what selects the winning ideas, the ones that are most fit to environmental conditions,
link |
00:40:01.480
frankly.
link |
00:40:02.480
Talking about sovereignty and individualism, there might need to be some rethinking here
link |
00:40:10.640
about what is actually the basic individual entity that is to be sovereign.
link |
00:40:16.320
We are biological meat vehicles, we're way overly attached to them.
link |
00:40:26.600
Maybe especially with genetics and all those kinds of things, or artificial intelligence,
link |
00:40:30.160
or living more and more in virtual worlds, will become detached from that kind of idea.
link |
00:40:35.960
So for example, if I can clone you, make one million robbers, but you'll all have the
link |
00:40:45.080
same idea, what is your real value, like I could just shoot you, and there will still
link |
00:40:50.520
be 999 of you, but the idea is the important thing, the things you believe.
link |
00:40:56.760
I would argue that I don't know, even if you clone someone perfectly, I don't think you
link |
00:41:02.520
can reproduce the individual themselves, because we're all a product of nature and nurture.
link |
00:41:09.120
So my particular concourse of experience is the path dependence that I represent cannot
link |
00:41:14.600
be replicated, nor can anyone's for that matter.
link |
00:41:17.680
Well, that's a hypothesis.
link |
00:41:19.320
So that's of course a human meat bag would say, like desperately trying to preserve
link |
00:41:31.040
himself.
link |
00:41:33.040
I think it reduces to some fundamental questions about what is consciousness and whether that
link |
00:41:36.920
can be cloned, all those kinds.
link |
00:41:39.280
It gets to the core of what it is to be human.
link |
00:41:42.480
What are the things that make you particularly you?
link |
00:41:45.080
Yeah, I think it would assume kind of a materialist viewpoint on reality, and that if you could
link |
00:41:49.880
reproduce every atom of an individual that you would have their experience encapsulated
link |
00:41:54.080
in that.
link |
00:41:55.480
And Hoffman's book is very radical.
link |
00:41:58.720
He argues that space and time is not an objective reality, it's a biological interface.
link |
00:42:06.200
So we are scanning our environment for fitness payoffs, and this space and time is the rendering
link |
00:42:13.480
specific to human beings that allows us to navigate reality effectively.
link |
00:42:19.080
So the further argument would be that we all have pretty similar interfaces, but they're
link |
00:42:23.400
all slightly different too, because we're all adapting in different ways, and that different
link |
00:42:27.520
animals have their own unique interfaces.
link |
00:42:30.400
So we have a certain amount of photoreceptors in our eye, whereas I think the numbers three
link |
00:42:34.880
might be five, or something like the mantis shrimp has like seven or nine.
link |
00:42:39.400
So they can see, and we only see one 10 trillionth of the light spectrum.
link |
00:42:47.080
So talk about a tiny fraction, I mean, one 10 trillionth is a very miniscule number,
link |
00:42:51.720
and that makes up all of the light that we can interpret with our eyes.
link |
00:42:55.440
But it's something like a mantis shrimp could see, you know, much more of that.
link |
00:42:58.920
So I think there's this, we're very conditioned to have a fully materialist viewpoint on reality
link |
00:43:06.760
today, or we think, you know, the atomic clockwork kind of universe.
link |
00:43:13.040
But I think there's, I don't think that's true exactly.
link |
00:43:16.800
And another school that goes into that is actually Austrian economics, where we could
link |
00:43:23.320
say that, you know, we mentioned earlier that an asset is not property, it's actually based
link |
00:43:28.400
on the relationship between the individual and the property.
link |
00:43:32.880
There's this whole realm of relevance associated with, we're all moving through life in the
link |
00:43:41.760
course of a goal directed action.
link |
00:43:43.680
So when we walk across a room, I go from A to B, it's because I valued B more than A.
link |
00:43:50.280
So value is inseparable from human action.
link |
00:43:53.160
We have a rank ordered value system in our mind, each of us, and we're constantly taking
link |
00:43:57.840
action in accordance with those rank values.
link |
00:44:01.840
Anything that accelerates us on the course of our goal directed action towards our goal
link |
00:44:07.400
is useful.
link |
00:44:09.840
Anything that impedes us, or we could say is valuable, anything that impedes us is actually
link |
00:44:14.480
obstructing to value and anything that's irrelevant is just valueless.
link |
00:44:19.320
So this table that we're using right now, like this is a, it's an accessory to you and
link |
00:44:26.120
I because it's holding this paper that's holding the information that's guiding our conversation.
link |
00:44:30.560
But we could pay some $100 to jump over this table, and this table could simultaneously
link |
00:44:35.720
be an accessory to you and I and an obstacle to someone else.
link |
00:44:39.640
So it's this domain, this silent contention of willpower and agendas occurring across
link |
00:44:45.160
the face of the earth that is what Austrian economics really looks at.
link |
00:44:50.200
It's the realm of human action, as they call it, it's called praxeology.
link |
00:44:55.680
So it's a non materialist viewpoint on reality and that things, we think in terms of matter
link |
00:45:02.280
being reality, but it's often more so in the sphere of human action, what matters?
link |
00:45:07.800
That is reality.
link |
00:45:08.800
It's the relevance of a thing to the course of one's goal directed action.
link |
00:45:12.520
And that's ultimately exist in the space of ideas, not in the space of physical matter.
link |
00:45:19.120
And just to jump back to this line here, I think his fundamental line here is the question
link |
00:45:23.800
is talking about universal Darwinism as an asset, what does it leave behind?
link |
00:45:28.280
I've tried to show that once it passes through everything, we're left with stronger, sounder
link |
00:45:32.320
versions of our most useful ideas.
link |
00:45:35.480
That's the key point to me and that ideas and information so far as we can tell are
link |
00:45:40.560
the most fundamental substrate of reality.
link |
00:45:44.480
And information itself, back to entropy, information is the resolution of entropy.
link |
00:45:50.480
That's what the bit is, right?
link |
00:45:51.640
It's a one or zero.
link |
00:45:52.720
Whatever reduces your entropy by half is a bit and we measure information in bits.
link |
00:45:57.640
So you're right.
link |
00:46:00.000
People don't have ideas, ideas have people.
link |
00:46:03.240
Honestly, it's a really profound idea or a statement about reality, a reframing of reality.
link |
00:46:12.800
So if we're actually being deeply honest about it, it's quite painful.
link |
00:46:17.800
I do appreciate that you defended your biological meatback earlier, but it seems like ideas
link |
00:46:23.840
are the things that have power.
link |
00:46:26.160
That me, Lex, for example, is worthless and relative to the ideas that used my brain for
link |
00:46:35.920
a bit of a time.
link |
00:46:37.760
But so far as we know, only human beings can generate and share ideas.
link |
00:46:42.480
So you can't say Lex is worthless.
link |
00:46:44.760
You are the node of the idea sphere, the new sphere.
link |
00:46:49.200
So what is it?
link |
00:46:52.160
From a Bitcoin perspective, I'm like, I'm mining, I'm solving the cryptographic problem
link |
00:46:57.280
in the general, in that sense, I'm a useful node.
link |
00:47:02.960
Yeah, you're competing to solve the puzzle of entropy, right?
link |
00:47:06.960
And when you do solve it, it benefits the entire network.
link |
00:47:09.920
But I guess from my perspective, just because just working in AI, I'm looking at the long
link |
00:47:16.760
term vision.
link |
00:47:17.760
I see us humans in AI systems as really the same, and AI systems ultimately as something
link |
00:47:24.880
that supersedes humans.
link |
00:47:27.240
So what is intelligence?
link |
00:47:33.440
So in the context of our current discussion, I think intelligence is very closely linked
link |
00:47:41.040
to this notion of ideas and its ability to generate ideas, to mold ideas, to compress
link |
00:47:53.280
seeming chaos into some model, into some theory that efficiently compresses the chaos in a
link |
00:48:01.760
way where you can then integrate it with other ideas and they can play in all those kinds
link |
00:48:06.240
of things.
link |
00:48:07.240
So in that sense, it's the turning chaos into order.
link |
00:48:12.080
It's the molding of ideas that our human brains can work with it.
link |
00:48:18.080
And just from my perspective, I don't see any reason why they cannot be algorithmatized,
link |
00:48:23.240
converted into computational systems.
link |
00:48:25.560
I would agree, which is scary.
link |
00:48:30.000
Very or potentially really promising, right?
link |
00:48:33.440
It's kind of the case with all novelty.
link |
00:48:34.920
It's terrifying as much as it is promising.
link |
00:48:37.280
That's why you're pursuing it so heavily.
link |
00:48:39.440
I would maybe take it a step further and say that intelligence, and maybe its most simplistic
link |
00:48:45.680
form is error correction.
link |
00:48:48.400
So we humans have wants, again, we're constantly expressing our value through action.
link |
00:48:56.560
There's no other way to express it, by the way.
link |
00:48:58.080
Whatever you choose to do in any moment, you are expressing the values you hold in your
link |
00:49:02.480
mind and your heart.
link |
00:49:04.760
As we move from less valued A to more valued B, entropy happens, uncertainty happens, we
link |
00:49:14.480
fall off course.
link |
00:49:16.320
And it is intelligence that enables us to render information from that experience and
link |
00:49:21.800
error correct, right?
link |
00:49:23.800
So that we can shift our trajectory slightly more towards B that we're trying to move towards.
link |
00:49:30.960
So I think that there's something there that I don't know that we can make synthetically,
link |
00:49:41.920
and that if we define intelligence as error correction, it's an error correction to what?
link |
00:49:47.720
Error correction towards what we find is valuable.
link |
00:49:50.680
So we're trying to satisfy human wants.
link |
00:49:52.560
Why not just be our own, could be others as well.
link |
00:49:54.200
If I'm an entrepreneur, I'm trying to solve the wants of others, not just myself.
link |
00:49:57.600
And I'm trying to error correct myself towards that goal, using intelligence and processing
link |
00:50:03.760
environmental feedback through intelligence to error correct.
link |
00:50:06.640
So I don't know how, if you eliminate the human element completely, who's doing the
link |
00:50:13.240
wanting?
link |
00:50:14.240
Where does value come from?
link |
00:50:15.240
I know the machine learning people who are listening are saying that's exactly what machine
link |
00:50:19.640
learning is, which is error correction, because you have a loss function, objective function
link |
00:50:24.000
that measures how wrong your thing is, and you want to make it less wrong next time.
link |
00:50:30.040
That's the whole process of machine learning.
link |
00:50:32.080
But you're saying what humans are able to do is in a world where there's no maybe objective
link |
00:50:41.400
values, absolute values, you're generating that very loss function, that objective function
link |
00:50:47.600
that measures the error comes from the human mind.
link |
00:50:55.400
Some aliens might disagree with you, because they might have a different objective function.
link |
00:50:59.560
Obviously, the purpose comes from consciousness, I think, and without purpose, there's not
link |
00:51:04.080
error correction.
link |
00:51:05.080
Yeah.
link |
00:51:06.080
I mean, this is, again, a hypothesis, like where does purpose come from?
link |
00:51:09.640
It seems to come from consciousness, you're right.
link |
00:51:13.480
That's where suffering comes from, and you want to lessen suffering, that's where pleasure
link |
00:51:19.120
comes from.
link |
00:51:20.120
It seems like it's consciousness.
link |
00:51:22.120
Maybe there's something to this biological meat bag.
link |
00:51:25.240
So to take it one layer deeper on this, and the reason I like this book so much, again,
link |
00:51:29.400
the case against reality, so he's making the case at space and time are not fundamental,
link |
00:51:35.520
which I started my intellectual explorations in physics, actually astrophysics.
link |
00:51:40.240
So for the longest time, even the way I describe money as I talk about space and time, so that
link |
00:51:45.360
blew my mind.
link |
00:51:46.760
But this dove told nicely with another book called Leela, the author is Robert Persig.
link |
00:51:53.520
So he wrote Zen in the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, which is a very popular book.
link |
00:51:56.960
20 years later, he wrote Leela, which no one's heard of, which is crazy, and he basically
link |
00:52:01.760
says he was wrong about his first book, and he lays out this entire other metaphysics
link |
00:52:06.960
of quality, he calls it.
link |
00:52:08.960
So it's the metaphysics, I think it's the metaphysics of quality.
link |
00:52:12.680
But his supposition is that it's not physical reality that's fundamental.
link |
00:52:19.160
It's not informational information that's fundamental.
link |
00:52:22.360
It's value.
link |
00:52:24.360
So he actually, and it's a beautiful book, I highly recommend it.
link |
00:52:29.280
He essentially is refuting causality itself.
link |
00:52:33.280
We think A causes B, this book makes the case that B values precondition A, so that we are
link |
00:52:43.120
actually creating our future through our value systems.
link |
00:52:48.600
And this goes back to something, I think the Solzhenitsyn said this, that the line between
link |
00:52:53.760
good and evil runs down the heart of every man.
link |
00:52:56.360
So it's as if our moral decisions are actually what's creating the outcomes in reality over
link |
00:53:02.440
time.
link |
00:53:03.440
And then that gets into all the wisdom traditions related to religion, or it's always talking
link |
00:53:07.360
about loving thy neighbor and loving God and all of these other things that are good morally
link |
00:53:13.840
to create the best outcomes.
link |
00:53:15.360
So values are fundamental.
link |
00:53:18.480
Value, yes.
link |
00:53:19.480
Value is fundamental.
link |
00:53:21.480
Oh boy, yeah, that's interesting.
link |
00:53:27.040
It does feel like physics is not capturing something.
link |
00:53:31.280
There's some people, panpsychists argue that consciousness might be one of the fundamental
link |
00:53:38.280
properties of nature, like from which emerges everything we see.
link |
00:53:42.880
So that could be just other words for this same notion of value.
link |
00:53:49.560
And then the basic laws of physics are not capturing that currently.
link |
00:53:54.120
So maybe humans, in order to understand from where humans came from, we have to understand
link |
00:53:58.520
these other properties of nature, which are yet to be discovered at the physics level.
link |
00:54:03.640
And we contend with that underlying nature, whatever it is, with the logos.
link |
00:54:10.840
So we're looking at uncategorized nature, and then we're assigning a word to it.
link |
00:54:18.600
So we're slicing up chaos into little boxes of order, and then we're establishing this
link |
00:54:24.520
social consensus as to those labels, which we call words, and we're using that to communicate.
link |
00:54:30.920
And when we communicate, we can start to build these other things.
link |
00:54:35.200
This is like the Yuval Harari imagined orders.
link |
00:54:38.120
So we can create these useful fictions, whether it's the nation state or human rights or money,
link |
00:54:44.320
and that allows us to cooperate flexibly in large numbers so that we can better contend
link |
00:54:49.760
with reality.
link |
00:54:50.760
We can produce more complicated things.
link |
00:54:54.160
We can enlarge that bubble of civilization against entropy.
link |
00:54:58.640
And that's what capitalism is all about.
link |
00:55:01.240
It's about further specializing knowledge, further enriching mankind's treasury of knowledge,
link |
00:55:08.840
and doing it.
link |
00:55:09.840
But to do that, the communication media that we're using, the words have to have stable
link |
00:55:15.640
meaning.
link |
00:55:16.800
The money needs to have value that's dependable.
link |
00:55:21.560
It needs to be something that's not dictated by any one group.
link |
00:55:27.080
It's reached by consensus of the entire group.
link |
00:55:30.920
That's how you think it's optimizing for error correction, again, where a free market would
link |
00:55:38.680
be harnessing the intelligence of all market actors.
link |
00:55:42.640
And a centrally planned market would be harnessing just the intelligence of a small group of
link |
00:55:48.280
bureaucrats.
link |
00:55:49.280
And it's not obvious how to achieve this kind of consensus mechanism.
link |
00:55:53.440
I mean, there's obviously, we'll talk about sort of Bitcoin as an idea.
link |
00:55:58.440
Ultimately the idea of Bitcoin is connecting it to physics.
link |
00:56:03.000
So you can trust that physical matter won't change.
link |
00:56:09.440
But there could be other ideas that were yet, maybe physics could be changed.
link |
00:56:14.920
Eric Weinstein has anything to say about it.
link |
00:56:18.840
We right now believe that physics can't be changed, the physical matter of the world,
link |
00:56:23.200
but maybe it can in a way that we're totally not understanding.
link |
00:56:26.520
You mentioned sort of reality from Donald Hoffman's perspective.
link |
00:56:32.680
If we don't have even close to direct access to the fabric of reality, maybe we're living
link |
00:56:39.040
in a world that's very many dimensions, that the notions of space and time is just like
link |
00:56:44.320
a silly, useful construct that's not at all connected.
link |
00:56:48.920
You're starting to look at like Stephen Wolfram's, I don't know if you're familiar with this
link |
00:56:53.040
view of the world, that it's like hypographs underneath it all, like these mathematical
link |
00:56:58.040
structures from which everything emerges, like they're like many, many, many orders
link |
00:57:05.800
of magnitude smaller than what we think of as they're even smaller than like strings
link |
00:57:11.800
and string theory.
link |
00:57:13.320
So those are the basic mathematical objects from which it emerges.
link |
00:57:17.560
I think that's an interesting philosophical framework.
link |
00:57:20.680
It's also, people should check out, a cool way to play with beautiful hypograph mathematical
link |
00:57:27.480
structures.
link |
00:57:28.480
I don't know if you know what Stephen Wolfram is, but he created Wolfram Alpha and all these
link |
00:57:33.560
tools that you can actually visualize and play with.
link |
00:57:36.200
So you can play with physics in a visual way, or at least discrete mathematics, which I
link |
00:57:43.800
think is incredible.
link |
00:57:44.800
He doesn't get enough love.
link |
00:57:46.960
One of the reasons he I think doesn't get enough love is because of this little quirk
link |
00:57:52.560
of human nature, which is the ego.
link |
00:57:55.840
And he sometimes frustrates a few folks because he's very, let's say, proud of his work.
link |
00:58:05.920
But it's interesting to think about a world where we don't have direct access to reality,
link |
00:58:13.640
as Hoffman argues.
link |
00:58:15.200
And maybe, I don't know if you can comment, I don't know if you're familiar with Ein Rand's
link |
00:58:18.920
work and her whole philosophy of objectivism, where her whole contention is that we do have
link |
00:58:26.480
access.
link |
00:58:27.480
I don't want to misstate it, but at least she will claim that it's not useful, or I
link |
00:58:39.680
think she'll probably say it's not correct to argue that we don't have access to reality.
link |
00:58:44.280
We have the hence objectivism.
link |
00:58:46.120
We have direct access to reality.
link |
00:58:49.280
That's the only thing we can reason about.
link |
00:58:52.480
And the only way to live life morally is to reason through everything, starting with the
link |
00:58:58.280
axioms of reality, which we do have direct access to.
link |
00:59:01.320
Right.
link |
00:59:02.320
You have thoughts about her work?
link |
00:59:04.520
I am slightly ashamed to say I have not read Ein Rand yet.
link |
00:59:09.000
So she is high on my list, and she's been recommended a number of times.
link |
00:59:14.240
But so I don't know a lot specifically about her philosophy or objectivism.
link |
00:59:18.320
But to me, it resonates closely with what the American pragmatist commented on truth,
link |
00:59:25.840
and they distinguished what you could say is absolute truth, which is at the bottom
link |
00:59:30.480
of reality, whether it's Mr. Wolfram's mathematical formulas or value, whatever it may be.
link |
00:59:35.080
It's something ineffable, something beyond the reach of epistemology, perhaps even.
link |
00:59:42.400
And maybe that's why religion just sort of points to it.
link |
00:59:45.520
Just trying to use, I think, Joseph Campbell said something like, religion is using stories
link |
00:59:55.640
to point towards the same transcendental mystery we all experience but cannot articulate.
link |
01:00:01.320
So something like the artist uses lies to point to the truth, something like that kind
link |
01:00:08.360
of thing.
link |
01:00:10.360
That's really good.
link |
01:00:11.360
The American pragmatist said that, because at the end of the day, this is all about when
link |
01:00:16.360
we say truth, we need something that is socially close to social consensus and is not shakeable
link |
01:00:24.600
by political action.
link |
01:00:26.080
So that's what physics and mathematics are.
link |
01:00:28.800
It's an unshakable point of reference, I guess you might say.
link |
01:00:35.240
So the American pragmatist defined truth as the end of inquiry.
link |
01:00:42.840
And in markets, we could say that the market itself is a forum that generates truth.
link |
01:00:50.640
We call this pragmatic truth to separate pure objective truth that we can't even talk about
link |
01:00:55.160
without polluting it versus pragmatic truth, which is something that's useful.
link |
01:00:59.440
So the example here would be, if I give you a map and you're trying to go from your house
link |
01:01:06.320
to the local brisket restaurant and the map gets you from your house to the brisket restaurant,
link |
01:01:12.480
is that because the map is true or is that because the map is useful?
link |
01:01:16.800
They're very hard to disentangle when you're just looking at it pragmatically.
link |
01:01:21.640
And in markets, markets, I argue, generate three forms of pragmatic truth.
link |
01:01:26.640
One is the price.
link |
01:01:28.560
So this is the collective subjective demand and purchasing power of humanity running up
link |
01:01:36.280
against the objective supply of capital and resources in the marketplace.
link |
01:01:41.920
So there's demand overlaid on supply.
link |
01:01:44.440
The result of that is the price.
link |
01:01:46.200
So that is the most truthful exchange ratio, which is the closest approximation to the
link |
01:01:53.080
value of any good in the marketplace.
link |
01:01:56.200
So it gives us a data point on which we can operate.
link |
01:01:58.760
It's compressing all known market realities down into a single actionable number.
link |
01:02:03.960
You know, based on the price of bread or copper, whether you want to buy more of it, you want
link |
01:02:07.840
to abstain from buying it, or maybe you want to try and find substitutes.
link |
01:02:11.520
And you can think of that price signal, it's like an economic nerve signal that's coordinating
link |
01:02:16.160
human action across time.
link |
01:02:17.720
So if we're one socioeconomic superorganism or collective, the price signal is the nerve.
link |
01:02:24.720
And that's the first form of pragmatic truth that markets generate.
link |
01:02:28.480
The second form would be tools and innovations themselves.
link |
01:02:32.440
So entrepreneurs are experimenting across time.
link |
01:02:35.760
They're trying to satisfy the wants of consumers.
link |
01:02:38.120
Consumers are sovereign in the marketplace.
link |
01:02:40.800
Whatever the consumer wants, the consumer gets, right?
link |
01:02:43.920
I'm trying to satisfy that.
link |
01:02:44.920
I'm trying to do it at a profit.
link |
01:02:46.560
So I'm trying to take viewing the existing price signals of goods in the marketplace.
link |
01:02:50.680
I'm trying to assemble those in a way at a cost lower than the final solution I'm delivering
link |
01:02:56.600
to my customer.
link |
01:02:57.600
I'm selling it at a price higher than the productive factors I combine to create it.
link |
01:03:03.040
And in that iterative process, we're constantly discovering new and better ways of solving
link |
01:03:09.400
problems or satisfying wants.
link |
01:03:11.520
So we could say, to go out and dig a hole, right, someone wants a hole dug, that a shovel
link |
01:03:17.280
is going to let you do it much faster per hour than you would with your bare hands.
link |
01:03:22.560
So what is the pragmatic truth of digging holes?
link |
01:03:26.400
It's a shovel, right?
link |
01:03:28.600
It's the best way we know how to solve any particular problem based on the existing treasury
link |
01:03:33.960
of knowledge.
link |
01:03:35.440
So every tool, again, we're back to ideas being fundamental.
link |
01:03:39.160
The shovel itself is just a knowledge structure.
link |
01:03:43.080
We've figured out a way to create this particular implement and then we've indexed the raw materials
link |
01:03:47.720
we found in nature to this knowledge structure to create a shovel, which allows us to better
link |
01:03:52.320
satisfy human wants, faster, cheaper, better, effectively.
link |
01:03:57.240
I'm trying to generalize, you blow my mind a little bit here, I'm trying to generalize
link |
01:04:02.040
the idea of tool, how to think about it, because I keep just, when you say tool, I keep imagining
link |
01:04:08.760
different like specific concentrations of a tool.
link |
01:04:12.200
I'm trying to see, so the price is a pragmatic truth that's communicating value in this network.
link |
01:04:22.320
Subjective demands against objective supply.
link |
01:04:27.240
So it's an economic democracy.
link |
01:04:30.040
So that's the demand supply.
link |
01:04:32.400
And then the tools are the ways of extracting or solving problems is the more general kind
link |
01:04:38.800
of thing.
link |
01:04:39.800
Or satisfying wants.
link |
01:04:41.400
So wants are somehow, that's part of the supply and the demand.
link |
01:04:48.200
And wants are back to value, right, because everything someone wants, they're expressing
link |
01:04:51.680
their value.
link |
01:04:52.680
Okay.
link |
01:04:53.680
Yeah.
link |
01:04:54.680
So the shovel is a pragmatic truth.
link |
01:04:57.520
The shovel is truth.
link |
01:04:58.520
It feels like a good book title.
link |
01:05:00.200
Okay.
link |
01:05:01.200
Sorry.
link |
01:05:02.200
So what other pragm...
link |
01:05:03.200
And then the third one I would argue is virtue, actually.
link |
01:05:07.880
Oh, wow.
link |
01:05:09.200
And another way to maybe think about this is competitive competency, but it's also cooperative
link |
01:05:15.720
competency.
link |
01:05:17.320
So we're learning over time what characteristics, what patterns of action, what mindsets, what
link |
01:05:25.120
mental tools, what heuristics are most useful to satisfying customer wants.
link |
01:05:30.760
So I think that becomes, over time, becomes sharpened into virtue, right?
link |
01:05:34.480
We know it's best to be honest because if you lie, it's very energy inefficient, right?
link |
01:05:39.400
You're creating this little fork of reality.
link |
01:05:41.840
And then if someone else asks you about that lie again, you have to put another layer of
link |
01:05:45.280
lies on top of it.
link |
01:05:46.280
Where if you just tell the truth, you're just recollecting what happened.
link |
01:05:49.400
And so that sort of keeps, again, when we're talking about delaying volatility, right?
link |
01:05:55.680
If you lie, you're delaying short term volatility, but you're increasing long term volatility.
link |
01:06:00.840
What about murder?
link |
01:06:01.840
I'm being able to figure out why murder is bad because I just keep wanting to murder
link |
01:06:05.520
people.
link |
01:06:07.280
And I've murdered many.
link |
01:06:08.280
Well, that's why I'm trying to get an interview with Vladimir Putin.
link |
01:06:13.480
So that's fascinating virtue in this market with the supplies and demands, and there's
link |
01:06:18.800
the tools, which is also a pragmatic truth.
link |
01:06:21.800
And there's virtue.
link |
01:06:22.800
It's a pragmatic truth.
link |
01:06:24.600
Yeah.
link |
01:06:25.600
And if we interfere with that free market process, again, if we overstep, which this
link |
01:06:30.240
maybe ties into murder, if you start to be coercive against life, liberty or property.
link |
01:06:36.120
So if you're forcibly taking someone's life, you're breaking down the trust in that market
link |
01:06:41.280
that generates these pragmatic truths.
link |
01:06:44.200
If you forcibly infringe on someone's liberty, for any reason other than them originally
link |
01:06:51.560
breaking or infringing on life, liberty or property, then that's not going to work either.
link |
01:06:57.000
And then if you violate private property rights, if you steal property from others, you're
link |
01:07:01.280
breaking down the trust that the intersubjective fabric of money and markets and the rule of
link |
01:07:09.280
law, all of these useful fictions are meant to preserve, you're corrupting it and breaking
link |
01:07:13.760
it down.
link |
01:07:14.760
What's kind of interesting to think about the market is helping evolve the virtues.
link |
01:07:20.800
It's sharpened into virtues.
link |
01:07:23.120
And these virtues can then go into motivational posters or in books that we all agree on and
link |
01:07:30.520
then eventually take for granted as if they were somehow fundamental to human nature.
link |
01:07:35.440
But they're not perhaps fundamental, they're just pragmatic truths.
link |
01:07:40.560
Yeah.
link |
01:07:41.560
It's another way to consider competition itself is that it is a discovery process.
link |
01:07:48.520
So entrepreneurs are competing with one another and they're trying to best satisfy consumer
link |
01:07:56.040
wants at the lowest possible price.
link |
01:07:57.880
So they're placing bets of time, energy and capital on themselves, on their idea, their
link |
01:08:02.280
business plan.
link |
01:08:04.160
And then the market decides, the consensus of market actors decide which one was better.
link |
01:08:10.440
One lives, one dies.
link |
01:08:13.000
So competition itself is helping us get closer to truth, to pragmatic truth.
link |
01:08:18.160
So we're discovering what is the right price for this asset.
link |
01:08:21.480
And that price, by the way, is derived, again, in the sense of data compression.
link |
01:08:26.840
Everyone in the world can see that price.
link |
01:08:29.160
Everyone in the world can then put their skin in the game by choosing to buy or sell or
link |
01:08:33.120
short or go long or do any number of financial actions on that price.
link |
01:08:38.360
And that information is then propagated back out to everyone else.
link |
01:08:41.320
So it's this feedback loop between market actor and price that makes it so useful.
link |
01:08:48.760
And that's what carries us.
link |
01:08:52.600
So it's these collisions of interest that carry us, it removes the unuseful aspects
link |
01:09:00.000
of ourselves or of our tools or of a price and reveals pragmatic truth to us.
link |
01:09:05.560
Can you play my therapist for a second and if we talk about creative destruction, I think
link |
01:09:11.600
Bukowski, Hunter Stompson is a quote, something like, for all instances of beauty, many souls
link |
01:09:21.560
must be trampled.
link |
01:09:23.840
Wow.
link |
01:09:27.600
But it, there does seem to be an aspect of competition that destroys.
link |
01:09:34.480
You were talking about entrepreneurs sort of on the outside of the circle of order striving
link |
01:09:41.320
to make sense, to compress volatility of the chaos of the universe.
link |
01:09:49.480
Is there some way to protect a little bit against the pain of that destruction or that
link |
01:09:55.600
creative destruction that entrepreneurs screaming on fire as he enlightens the rest of us?
link |
01:10:03.760
Is there some role for us humans together in the togetherness of it?
link |
01:10:10.480
Also government, but any kind of collectives in helping that entrepreneur who's on fire
link |
01:10:18.080
to maybe after a few minutes to spray him with some water and put him out of his misery?
link |
01:10:26.480
I would say that pain is the inarguable basis of being.
link |
01:10:34.720
Pain is, no matter how you try to explain it away or describe it, it's not something
link |
01:10:45.000
you can rationalize away.
link |
01:10:47.120
No one, I think, ever, someone may want to cut themselves to have an endorphin high,
link |
01:10:53.240
but no one wants to suffer, we'd say.
link |
01:10:55.120
So pain, in that sense, it is what we're constantly trying to deal with and to move
link |
01:11:02.560
away from or create buffers between us and potential pain or potential uncertainty.
link |
01:11:08.680
And that pain is information.
link |
01:11:12.000
When we experience something that is misfit to the outcome we desired, that pain is what
link |
01:11:17.840
puts us, it encourages us to change our trajectory, to get back on course towards our valued aim.
link |
01:11:25.080
So as far as you need entrepreneurs that are exploring and you're trying to do something
link |
01:11:33.000
new, if you're a pioneer of any kind, you are courageously facing pain.
link |
01:11:37.080
You're willfully confronting it.
link |
01:11:38.960
So I don't think it's avoidable in that sense.
link |
01:11:41.560
It's not like we can have pain free economic growth like the central bank would maybe have
link |
01:11:47.360
us lend to believe that we can just run these experiments and when they fail, we'll just
link |
01:11:51.800
paper over all the losses and continue or you're just delaying and exacerbating the
link |
01:11:56.920
inevitable volatility back to reality.
link |
01:12:00.520
But what I would say is that capitalism, because we're building, we're increasing the capital
link |
01:12:06.520
stock of the world, which again, capital is the mitigation of risk.
link |
01:12:09.960
So we're reducing the overall risk of existence by accumulating more capital in the world.
link |
01:12:14.720
And that's what protects that entrepreneur that's deciding, hey, I saved up a million
link |
01:12:18.960
bucks, I'm gonna go try this business idea, I'm gonna put all my money on the line.
link |
01:12:24.200
And if he goes up in flames, then his cost of living when he comes back to reality and
link |
01:12:28.960
he's starting over from zero, his cost of living is substantially lower, starting over
link |
01:12:33.160
from zero than he would be out in the wilderness on his own.
link |
01:12:37.040
So it's the accumulation of capital stock is the buffer against uncertainty for everyone.
link |
01:12:43.520
And it gives you actually more potential to go out and experiment, to go out and confront
link |
01:12:50.200
the chaos of nature because you are better healed effectively.
link |
01:12:55.080
So I think we're speaking in sort of idealistic terms about the power of capitalism when it
link |
01:13:03.200
works well.
link |
01:13:04.840
Is there any aspects that you think that don't work well in a free market in all the basic
link |
01:13:11.600
pragmatic truths that we were talking about, is there ways it can go wrong?
link |
01:13:17.040
So I would first argue that we have never seen an actual purely free market.
link |
01:13:28.640
Closest example would be kind of geopolitically we have a free market and that governments
link |
01:13:36.760
are not necessarily governed, but they are premised on governing large groups of individuals.
link |
01:13:47.560
So that's not, doesn't exactly.
link |
01:13:50.040
You mean between governments?
link |
01:13:52.400
Yes.
link |
01:13:53.400
See, but isn't there still, so a free market, maybe you can correct me, is a free market
link |
01:13:58.640
still grounded in the ideas of property rights and all those kinds of things, right?
link |
01:14:04.040
So governments tend to also sometimes be violent towards each other.
link |
01:14:07.640
That's right.
link |
01:14:08.640
So they don't respect all the basic aspects of capitalism.
link |
01:14:11.880
That's right.
link |
01:14:12.880
So maybe another way to look at this is that gold is the original governor of government
link |
01:14:18.920
actually.
link |
01:14:20.960
And this is the reason governments have abused and gone off of the gold standard.
link |
01:14:27.080
So historically, if you are a bank or a nation state and you produce more currency than your
link |
01:14:38.040
gold reserves can justify, then people, then gold will flow out of your bank or out of
link |
01:14:44.200
your country.
link |
01:14:45.200
So there's this natural check via the money that, via capitalistic money, which is gold,
link |
01:14:54.040
right?
link |
01:14:55.040
Gold was selected by the free market.
link |
01:14:56.040
It's not decreed by government.
link |
01:14:58.760
It provided this natural check on government action.
link |
01:15:02.600
So I guess to get back to the original question is we've never seen a pure free market because
link |
01:15:12.080
money has always been monopolized and coerced, frankly.
link |
01:15:18.040
So to try and answer what goes wrong with a free market is really difficult because we've
link |
01:15:23.040
never actually seen it.
link |
01:15:24.680
And I would define free market is one in which government only protects life, liberty and
link |
01:15:31.720
property.
link |
01:15:32.720
And so that's a very minimal role in society, again, just as a network security for the
link |
01:15:38.920
economic trade network.
link |
01:15:41.080
And anything that, any government function that goes beyond those three core functions,
link |
01:15:47.320
which by the way are pretty much the core tenants of morality as well.
link |
01:15:50.520
So governments just really intended to preserve natural law, if you will.
link |
01:15:56.160
Anything that goes beyond that moves us closer to an unfree market.
link |
01:16:01.560
So every regulation, every act of coercion is actually a gradation closer to a purely
link |
01:16:10.720
unfree market, which would be a monopoly.
link |
01:16:13.240
So in terms of what I guess theoretically we could say goes wrong in the free market
link |
01:16:17.800
is that it's volatile, it's trading off, it's accepting short term volatility in exchange
link |
01:16:27.640
for less long run volatility.
link |
01:16:30.640
And this tends to be the way of nature, by the way.
link |
01:16:32.980
So if we could look at something like, there's a region in North America called Baja, California,
link |
01:16:40.960
and it runs into the United States and it runs down into Mexico as well.
link |
01:16:45.560
So the same topology, but two different jurisdictions.
link |
01:16:50.600
In the U.S., we very heavily manage forest fires, we're trying to manage nature effectively,
link |
01:16:58.040
whereas in Mexico, it's much more unregulated.
link |
01:17:00.120
It just, when wildfires spring up, they let them burn off.
link |
01:17:04.440
North America, when wildfires spring up, we're actually extinguishing them.
link |
01:17:08.280
So we're constantly trying to dampen the short run volatility of these small brush fires,
link |
01:17:12.360
whereas in Mexico, we just let them burn, we let nature do its thing.
link |
01:17:15.040
Yeah.
link |
01:17:16.040
The consequence of this is that the wildfires still occur eventually, but they're much larger
link |
01:17:21.200
and much more devastating in North America, where human intervention has occurred.
link |
01:17:25.680
Because it is, it's dampening nature's natural corrective mechanism of clearing this underbrush
link |
01:17:32.880
with these more frequent and smaller fires at the cost of much larger fires.
link |
01:17:38.080
So again, we're delaying short term volatility and exacerbating long run volatility.
link |
01:17:43.040
And in Mexico, it's the opposite, just these wildfires burn much smaller and more continuously
link |
01:17:47.920
over time.
link |
01:17:49.440
The further effect of that in North America is that the fires can get so big and so hot
link |
01:17:53.120
that it burns away the top soil.
link |
01:17:55.200
So it actually destroys the fertility of the soil itself.
link |
01:17:58.560
So the point of this is that human intervention, even the intention behind North American authorities
link |
01:18:06.480
managing that forest fire is to create less destruction.
link |
01:18:10.400
That is the intention.
link |
01:18:12.040
And the intention is divergent from the outcome.
link |
01:18:15.480
So in Telemion speak, he would say that human intervention moves us from mediocristan into
link |
01:18:22.240
extremistan.
link |
01:18:24.080
So mediocristan would be something much more like nature where, for instance, you can't
link |
01:18:28.680
double your body weight in a day, probably can't even do it in a year, right?
link |
01:18:33.840
But in extremistan, which is something much more information based, you can double or
link |
01:18:40.440
send your net worth to zero in a single trade, in a single moment, right?
link |
01:18:44.880
So when we try and intervene with natural biological systems that have these feedback
link |
01:18:50.720
loops, we actually start to push the system to behave more like an extremist system that
link |
01:18:57.520
has less short run volatility, but more extreme long run volatility.
link |
01:19:03.720
But the question is, where you look at capitalism or communism, for example, and by the way,
link |
01:19:10.240
yes, I will talk to somebody who's a Marxist or a communist, like Richard Wolfe is a pretty
link |
01:19:14.720
eloquent defender of these ideas, because it's always good to really understand ideas,
link |
01:19:20.000
as opposed to just reject them offhand.
link |
01:19:24.200
When you look at the system of capitalism or the system of communism, there's ideals,
link |
01:19:31.000
and a lot of people argue in this perfect form would actually be good for the world.
link |
01:19:35.800
The question is, how resilient are they to the corruption of human nature?
link |
01:19:42.560
And I mean, you're saying that there's never been a free market, it's a very true statement.
link |
01:19:48.800
The question is, how resilient is capitalism, or whatever implementations of capitalism
link |
01:19:54.600
we had up to this point, to human nature where one person will become successful through
link |
01:20:01.760
legitimate means, then starts to try to manipulate the system that takes it away from a free
link |
01:20:07.240
market, or takes it away from the things that gave them the riches in the first place,
link |
01:20:14.200
and then try to, through corruption, get more, get this, the thing you said, the lazy human
link |
01:20:19.760
ways.
link |
01:20:20.760
Now, I try to figure out how to get something for nothing.
link |
01:20:23.200
That's right.
link |
01:20:24.200
So, how resilient do you think is capitalism to that?
link |
01:20:27.480
Well, the best implementation we've had of it really has been the United States, I think,
link |
01:20:35.760
up until this point, but it's still the central banking itself.
link |
01:20:42.520
This was in the 1848 manifesto of the Communist Party.
link |
01:20:46.040
Measure number five reads, an exclusive state monopoly in centralized control over cash
link |
01:20:51.080
and credit.
link |
01:20:52.080
So, the central bank is a Marxist or communist institution.
link |
01:20:56.040
It is antithetical to the free market principles on which the United States was founded.
link |
01:21:00.720
And indeed, the United States resisted the implementation of a central bank.
link |
01:21:03.880
I think it was Andrew Jackson.
link |
01:21:06.480
I know there was the first national bank, the second national bank were both disbanded,
link |
01:21:11.000
and then Andrew Jackson, which is my favorite Tennessean, he has some famous quotes about
link |
01:21:16.760
routing out the bankers like a Den of Vipers.
link |
01:21:19.520
I think he punched one of the central bankers in the face.
link |
01:21:23.240
Back when our leaders were a bit more badass, like you might say.
link |
01:21:29.120
And finally in 1913, the Federal Reserve was implemented, and it's been kind of all downhill
link |
01:21:38.560
from there.
link |
01:21:39.560
So, what is...
link |
01:21:40.560
Can you...
link |
01:21:41.560
Oh, second.
link |
01:21:42.560
I was just going to say that communism and capitalism, it's also a matter of scale.
link |
01:21:48.760
The ideal behind communism is from each according to their ability to each according to their
link |
01:21:53.640
need.
link |
01:21:54.640
Sounds beautiful, right?
link |
01:21:55.640
It sounds like a great, peaceful, harmonious way to organize ourselves.
link |
01:22:00.120
The problem is, and by the way, I am a communist in my family, in my home, right?
link |
01:22:05.520
At that very small scale.
link |
01:22:07.200
Yes.
link |
01:22:08.200
In your very small circles of trust, you're much more likely to behave selflessly towards
link |
01:22:14.160
one another.
link |
01:22:15.160
Okay, I look forward to the Bitcoin community clipping out that part, saying that Robert
link |
01:22:20.440
Breedlove is a communist and the ideals of communism are beautiful.
link |
01:22:23.960
Yeah, context matters, people.
link |
01:22:26.240
Sorry, go ahead.
link |
01:22:29.640
But to your point, it does not scale, right?
link |
01:22:33.240
As we move into this larger system of socioeconomic cooperation, which is necessary to deepen the
link |
01:22:42.280
division of labor, to generate more wealth, right?
link |
01:22:45.000
We need to interact with one another on much larger scales than this communist utopian ideal.
link |
01:22:52.320
We get into the realm of capitalism, where we need really sound rules, hard rules, consensus,
link |
01:22:59.600
verifiability, and frankly, prices, because the other thing in Soviet Russia is they tried
link |
01:23:06.960
to replace the profit motive or the price signal with this nationalistic faith and
link |
01:23:14.440
devotion, where it's like, you don't need self interest anymore.
link |
01:23:18.400
You don't need prices or profits.
link |
01:23:20.400
You can just protect Mother Russia and serve Mother Russia, and that would create wealth.
link |
01:23:26.560
And what happened?
link |
01:23:28.120
They destroyed price signals.
link |
01:23:29.880
There were shortages.
link |
01:23:30.880
There were famines.
link |
01:23:32.360
There's all levels of corruption.
link |
01:23:36.160
Because to your point, it's once you, people have to run the system no matter what.
link |
01:23:42.640
So when people are always pursuing something for nothing, and you put someone in a seat
link |
01:23:46.640
of much closer to absolute power, where they're making all the pricing decisions, they own
link |
01:23:52.280
all of the productive factors in the economy, they're not beholden to any market force.
link |
01:23:57.920
There's no market check on their action that that institution tends to become more corrupt.
link |
01:24:04.920
And further, it's an inferior resource strategy.
link |
01:24:10.680
I alluded to this earlier, where the other way to think about free market versus central
link |
01:24:15.400
planning is its decentralized or distributed computing versus centralized computing.
link |
01:24:22.960
So each one of us, I think that the number is 120 bits per second of active awareness.
link |
01:24:29.640
So we can take in, clearly we process a lot more than that, but our active awareness,
link |
01:24:33.160
I think is 120 bits per second.
link |
01:24:37.680
In a centralized planning body like in Soviet Russia, they had the pricing czar, maybe they
link |
01:24:42.160
had 10, 20,000 people deciding the prices for the entire country.
link |
01:24:46.240
You're only getting that much data throughput, 20,000 people times 120 bits per second.
link |
01:24:52.520
Whereas in a free market, if everyone is free to interact with deep capital markets based
link |
01:24:57.640
on an accurate price, you're getting the data throughput of 120 bits per second times the
link |
01:25:02.480
entire economy.
link |
01:25:04.560
So you're getting, it's a more efficient means for disseminating knowledge effectively.
link |
01:25:11.960
And then again, knowledge is just the more knowledge socioeconomic structure can contain,
link |
01:25:17.360
the more wealthy it is, prices, tools, all these things are just knowledge.
link |
01:25:21.960
So in that respect, that's why something like capitalism, even in its marginalized form,
link |
01:25:30.040
state capitalism outcompetes communism.
link |
01:25:33.600
It's distributed computing versus centralized computer.
link |
01:25:38.360
You know, we kind of brought up religion and Joseph Campbell and myth and the propagation
link |
01:25:45.040
of ideas.
link |
01:25:46.040
And kind of, before I forget, I wanted to ask your thoughts about this.
link |
01:25:50.680
You know, Jordan Peterson, I haven't really understood exactly, like be able to pin him
link |
01:25:56.920
down exactly what he sees as the role of religion in human society.
link |
01:26:03.960
But it feels like he's describing it as having value for us.
link |
01:26:11.560
This, the ideas of myth are valuable.
link |
01:26:15.800
They're valuable mechanisms toward, I think you mentioned kind of directing us in this
link |
01:26:21.880
world as a human society.
link |
01:26:25.320
Do you think about myth, do you think about religion, what's the use of it in this construct
link |
01:26:30.040
of markets in this framework of where ideas are ultimately the fundamental thing that
link |
01:26:42.400
makes societies work?
link |
01:26:44.080
Yeah.
link |
01:26:45.080
I think Jordan Peterson, who I'm a huge fan of, he's been very influential in my thinking
link |
01:26:53.120
and influential on my own religious views as well.
link |
01:26:58.720
I think his position would be, and he said this before, that he acts as if God exists.
link |
01:27:08.160
And I've had some arguments about this before, but to me, that points towards the preeminence
link |
01:27:14.480
of action and how important action is versus your cognitive beliefs necessarily.
link |
01:27:21.720
And I think there is a lot of utility in that, that if you follow the moral code of something
link |
01:27:26.280
like the Bible, you do reap benefits from that.
link |
01:27:30.960
Society reaps benefits from that.
link |
01:27:34.720
And this is not, and sometimes I bring up this point and people are like, oh my God,
link |
01:27:37.960
are you kidding me?
link |
01:27:38.960
Have you read the Old Testament?
link |
01:27:39.960
They're clobbering people with rocks when they do the wrong thing.
link |
01:27:43.640
The Bible doesn't claim to be this, like do everything that was done in the Bible.
link |
01:27:48.600
It's more like charting this moral progression where we came from this very barbaric society
link |
01:27:53.440
into something more like the New Testament where we're honoring individual sovereignty
link |
01:27:58.640
above the state and things like that.
link |
01:28:00.120
So I think that mythology itself is another form of data compression.
link |
01:28:07.520
If you look at these stories, Cain enables a good example, or Peterson makes the point
link |
01:28:13.120
that it's a tiny story.
link |
01:28:15.040
It's a paragraph ish long, but it contains so many layers of meaning in regards to violence,
link |
01:28:22.400
to evil, betrayal, work, the divergence between intention and result, because I think Cain
link |
01:28:30.320
is actually making, he's making the effort to sacrifice for God, but the sacrifices
link |
01:28:37.080
he's making are not, God doesn't find them useful.
link |
01:28:41.200
And so he sort of rejects them.
link |
01:28:47.120
Again, we're organized by these useful fictions, these herarian imagined orders.
link |
01:28:53.360
I think mythology is kind of the original version of that, where we were learning to
link |
01:28:58.320
organize ourselves around stories to best coordinate our action across space and time.
link |
01:29:09.240
And so I think it's very foundational, and back to what we were saying in the beginning,
link |
01:29:16.200
that if value truly is fundamental, I think it's interesting that all these stories point
link |
01:29:21.200
towards often common moral values.
link |
01:29:24.680
They're not perfectly aligned, but it does speak to just the evolutionary importance
link |
01:29:32.040
of morality and the subjectivity of morality, where morality sort of evolves over time based
link |
01:29:37.320
on, frankly, the capital stock we've accumulated, the more capital stock we've accumulated, the
link |
01:29:42.600
easier life is, the less barbaric we have to be, whereas if we're living in conditions
link |
01:29:47.600
of true scarcity, then we tend to be a bit more barbaric towards one another.
link |
01:29:55.400
And that too, to dovetail this into something largely unrelated, but I think is really important,
link |
01:30:01.240
is inflation.
link |
01:30:03.640
Inflation by artificially increasing the prices of goods and services in the world, we're
link |
01:30:10.160
injecting more dollars, chasing the same level of goods and services.
link |
01:30:15.080
We are artificially increasing scarcity, perceived scarcity.
link |
01:30:21.760
When you increase perceived scarcity, you are amplifying divisiveness.
link |
01:30:30.040
The natural state of man is when everything is scarce and you really have to fight hard
link |
01:30:34.600
just to eat or drink water that day.
link |
01:30:37.680
So it's decivilizing, in a way, by artificially amplifying the perceived scarcity in the world.
link |
01:30:44.840
Can you elaborate how does inflation increase the perceived scarcity in the world?
link |
01:30:49.360
So we could think the price itself is an indication, it's a data packet, if you will.
link |
01:30:54.640
The price is a data packet on supply and demand, it's telling you how much supply there is
link |
01:31:00.400
of something in the world relative to the demand.
link |
01:31:03.680
So when you print money and artificially increase that price, it's diverging away from supply
link |
01:31:10.120
and demand.
link |
01:31:11.120
It's becoming just more of a product of policy than it is of free market fundamentals.
link |
01:31:18.000
The more expensive something is, that is a signal to the marketplace and to market actors
link |
01:31:22.720
that it is scarce.
link |
01:31:24.840
That's why Leonardo painting might sell for $16 million, there's only one, there's a
link |
01:31:30.920
lot of demand for it.
link |
01:31:33.120
Maybe my numbers are off, but you get the point.
link |
01:31:36.040
It's the reason mask spiked in price after the COVID announcement, there was not enough
link |
01:31:40.720
supply, toilet paper, etc.
link |
01:31:43.760
So inflation, and by inflation I specifically mean arbitrary fiat currency supply inflation
link |
01:31:52.160
by legal monopoly, not inflation's a commonly misunderstood word.
link |
01:31:57.760
That is amplifying the perception of scarcity among market actors in the world.
link |
01:32:04.040
And I would argue that it actually amplifies divisiveness.
link |
01:32:07.840
I think this is the key maybe to looking at the connection between the monopolization
link |
01:32:14.760
of money and things like cancel culture because it's increasing our natural predilection to
link |
01:32:22.920
be combative with one another because we think there's more scarcity in the world than there
link |
01:32:26.880
actually is versus in a world where you're not increasing the money supply, prices are
link |
01:32:31.280
declining every year.
link |
01:32:33.320
As prices decline, this is a signal to market actors in the market that scarcity is declining.
link |
01:32:39.200
There's less need to fight over things.
link |
01:32:42.080
And all of this ties back into the old Bastiot saying that if goods don't cross borders,
link |
01:32:48.800
soldiers will.
link |
01:32:50.440
So if we're not trading with one another, if we're not acting interdependently and we're
link |
01:32:54.200
not becoming more intelligent as a market, and that increased intelligence or increased
link |
01:33:03.400
knowledge is reflected in decreased prices because prices are just the exchange ratios
link |
01:33:10.240
of things.
link |
01:33:11.240
So the smarter we can solve problems, the better we can solve problems, the less prices
link |
01:33:14.760
would be.
link |
01:33:16.040
So it induces more cooperation.
link |
01:33:17.920
I love how you tie inflation and cancel culture together as essentially artificial creation
link |
01:33:24.840
of increase of conflict, artificially increasing scarcity and thereby artificially increasing
link |
01:33:31.920
conflict.
link |
01:33:33.640
That's really fascinating.
link |
01:33:35.960
You're short circuiting my brain many times throughout this conversation.
link |
01:33:40.520
Okay.
link |
01:33:41.520
I'm struggling.
link |
01:33:42.520
This robot is struggling to keep up.
link |
01:33:45.480
Okay.
link |
01:33:46.640
Maybe to step back at the useful fictions or pragmatic truths.
link |
01:33:54.000
Let me ask the question that you've answered in many ways already, but let's explicitly
link |
01:33:59.120
look at what is money?
link |
01:34:01.440
Oh, as you know, that's my favorite question.
link |
01:34:07.760
Is the name of the show I just launched, the what is money show?
link |
01:34:13.840
Clearly the, we could say the Bitcoin rabbit hole is what's led me to explore a lot of
link |
01:34:18.840
these ideas in depth, and I think as we've demonstrated today, it goes well beyond just
link |
01:34:25.720
the economic sphere when you start to think about things like exchange and morality and
link |
01:34:30.360
time preference and civilization.
link |
01:34:33.400
So I love the question, what is money?
link |
01:34:36.080
I think it is the key to incepting a deeper understanding of the world into people that
link |
01:34:41.800
if you actually just start to ask the seemingly simple question, it surfaces more and more
link |
01:34:49.560
layers of truth.
link |
01:34:51.960
And I recently, I just wrote a piece, I think I have 30 something answers to this question.
link |
01:34:59.960
So there's
link |
01:35:00.960
So sometimes it's actually a more systematic way of asking the question of what is the
link |
01:35:05.280
meaning of life?
link |
01:35:06.280
You know, there's some questions that are almost unanswerable, but in their asking allow
link |
01:35:13.560
you to deeply understand, get closer to truth, deeply understand the nature of our human
link |
01:35:20.800
existence.
link |
01:35:21.800
And the meaning of life is almost like this initial philosophers striving towards that.
link |
01:35:29.800
If money is indeed as fundamental as you've described, especially in the context of value
link |
01:35:36.160
being fundamental, then that is a really, that's a more, let's take a 21st century way
link |
01:35:41.920
of asking the same question about what is the meaning of life.
link |
01:35:45.200
You mentioned that it's a meta property out of the list of many ways to answer that question.
link |
01:35:51.200
How would you help people to think about that?
link |
01:35:53.400
Yeah, the first most serious answer comes from the School of Austrian Economics, and
link |
01:36:01.640
it defines money as a universal medium of exchange.
link |
01:36:06.680
So this would be any good that is used, held and used purely for purposes of facilitating
link |
01:36:15.920
exchange.
link |
01:36:17.680
So in the configuration of demand for any particular asset, it's bifurcated between
link |
01:36:25.320
its utility, which is something, a service that it can render to you in real time, whether
link |
01:36:31.240
it's, you know, if it's water, you're thirsty.
link |
01:36:35.240
That's the utility of water is that it can cointre thirst.
link |
01:36:39.280
Whereas the marketability would be the expectation of future exchange that other people would
link |
01:36:43.960
want this asset in the future to trade it for whatever they may have.
link |
01:36:49.440
Money is just going to be the good in any trading economy that has the highest proportion
link |
01:36:55.040
of marketability relative to utility.
link |
01:36:58.000
So today, that would be gold.
link |
01:37:00.800
Gold has utility, it's used in electronics, it's used in dentistry and whatnot, but it's
link |
01:37:06.720
largely used as a store value across time.
link |
01:37:09.960
And that's what it's been used for for 5,000 years.
link |
01:37:12.240
So if we say gold has a $10 trillion market cap, maybe $2 trillion of that is its utility
link |
01:37:18.600
value or it's actually demand for use in computers and dentistry.
link |
01:37:22.720
And an $8 trillion of that is demand for its use as a store value.
link |
01:37:28.840
Money, the marketability aspects of money boils down to five services that money can
link |
01:37:35.320
render.
link |
01:37:36.960
Money needs to be divisible, it needs to be durable, it needs to be recognizable, needs
link |
01:37:41.760
to be portable, and it needs to be scarce.
link |
01:37:45.720
So I'll gloss over a lot of history with this and just say that historically, money's always
link |
01:37:50.680
been a technology, still is a technology or a tool.
link |
01:37:53.600
I use these terms interchangeably and if you think of a technology as just a more sophisticated
link |
01:37:57.720
tool effectively, to best satisfy those properties, monetary metals were determined to be the
link |
01:38:05.800
most satisfactory tool, the most divisible, most durable, most recognizable, most portable
link |
01:38:11.120
tool in the marketplace of the monetary metals, gold was the most scarce, as quantified by
link |
01:38:18.040
either its stock to flow ratio or its inflation resistance.
link |
01:38:22.360
So simple way to say this is that people always prefer the money most resistant to inflation.
link |
01:38:28.200
That's a nice definition of scarcity in the context of money is if you were to measure
link |
01:38:33.560
it, the resistance to inflation.
link |
01:38:36.200
So how hard is it to artificially increase the supply of the thing?
link |
01:38:40.040
That is the hardness of money and that's why gold is hard money because alchemy is hard.
link |
01:38:45.000
That's right because no one cracked alchemy, so gold became money.
link |
01:38:49.960
So that's such a nice clean explanation of what is money with the five elements and gold
link |
01:38:57.840
ultimately won out because of the last piece of scarcity.
link |
01:39:01.840
That's right.
link |
01:39:02.840
And to get to maybe dig a little deeper there, so scarcity, we commonly think of scarcity
link |
01:39:08.320
as strictly a supply property where there's not much of something than it's scarce, but
link |
01:39:15.360
it's not actually true.
link |
01:39:17.040
Scarcity occurs when demand exceeds supply.
link |
01:39:20.880
So when there's more demand than the supply can justify, the thing becomes an economic
link |
01:39:25.680
good and it establishes itself a market price.
link |
01:39:30.120
So there's more demand for the thing than the supply can satisfy.
link |
01:39:33.920
But the unique thing about money as a concept at least is that demand always exceeds supply.
link |
01:39:40.920
There's never enough money to satisfy everyone because another definition for money, it's
link |
01:39:46.600
the most marketable good.
link |
01:39:48.680
So it can be traded for any other good service, piece of knowledge in the marketplace.
link |
01:39:55.240
So humans being what we are, we're never satisfied.
link |
01:39:58.240
We always want more of something, whatever it may be.
link |
01:40:01.320
So money as the ultimate token of obtaining that something is always scarce as a concept.
link |
01:40:09.240
But the problem with money is that if you can, as you alluded to, easily increase its
link |
01:40:14.320
supply, then all of a sudden you can compromise the scarcity of it over time and you can rob
link |
01:40:20.720
people through inflation.
link |
01:40:23.320
So that's why the market settled on gold as money.
link |
01:40:26.680
And robbing is reallocating the value that, so essentially the one property, like why
link |
01:40:34.640
scarcity is important is it adds a lot more friction to the reallocation like through
link |
01:40:46.320
essentially violence or implied violence.
link |
01:40:48.960
Well it prevents it through cost of extraction too.
link |
01:40:51.480
So if you want to go out and dilute gold holders today, you have to go out into the world and
link |
01:40:56.160
mine gold.
link |
01:40:57.160
It's a very expensive process.
link |
01:40:59.840
That process tends to find equilibrium where production cost equals a market value of gold.
link |
01:41:05.280
So if market value is $2,000 an ounce today of gold, its production cost is going to be
link |
01:41:09.640
around there.
link |
01:41:11.120
That's the natural market equilibrium.
link |
01:41:12.480
So that way, gold miners cannot just dilute people over time, whereas if you look at something
link |
01:41:17.640
like fiat currency, which we're jumping ahead a little bit, but its production cost is zero.
link |
01:41:23.920
So there's a reason the market value of fiat currency historically has always converged
link |
01:41:28.080
to zero because its production cost is near zero.
link |
01:41:31.580
So the extension to that question might be how did we get from gold to paper currency?
link |
01:41:37.840
And again, this is rooted in the properties of money.
link |
01:41:41.680
As good as monetary metals were and as good as gold is as money at holding value across
link |
01:41:46.080
time, it's rather limited in terms of portability.
link |
01:41:50.800
It is not as useful for moving value across space.
link |
01:41:54.160
This is another definition of money, by the way, a social device for moving value across
link |
01:41:58.080
space and time.
link |
01:42:00.480
So to rectify this technological shortcoming of gold, we introduced, first of all, the
link |
01:42:08.280
custody of gold was gradually centralized into fewer and fewer warehousing operations.
link |
01:42:15.720
This is because there are economies of scale associated with using gold as money and that
link |
01:42:21.200
if you centralize the custody, the warehouse owner can then issue a paper receipt called
link |
01:42:26.640
the warehouse receipt for that gold and then market participants can trade that paper as
link |
01:42:31.280
if it's good as gold and everyone has an option at any time to go and redeem real gold from
link |
01:42:35.680
the warehouse.
link |
01:42:36.960
So that system works until the problem with it is that it introduces the need to trust
link |
01:42:43.240
the custodian.
link |
01:42:44.240
So it's introducing counterparty risk in the form of the custodian.
link |
01:42:47.800
And now should that warehouse choose to increase the supply of paper notes to gold beyond its
link |
01:42:54.680
supply?
link |
01:42:55.680
So if it's got three tons of gold and it issues six tons worth of paper receipts, all of a
link |
01:43:01.400
sudden it's participating in a fraud.
link |
01:43:03.560
It's basically lying.
link |
01:43:04.560
It's representing that it has more gold than it actually does.
link |
01:43:09.080
And that is the pathway that we got into banking and central banking is we needed a convenience
link |
01:43:15.320
mechanism to rectify the portability shortcomings of gold.
link |
01:43:19.560
We needed to be able to move value across space.
link |
01:43:22.400
Gold is doing a great job at moving value over time, but not space.
link |
01:43:26.280
Paper currency gave us the ability to move value across space, but it introduced this
link |
01:43:30.280
attack vector for warehouse operators, which became central banks to modify the supply
link |
01:43:38.400
to suit their own political agendas added the snooze button allows you to do just do
link |
01:43:45.120
a little fraud to get something for nothing, something just a little bit at first.
link |
01:43:49.240
Yeah.
link |
01:43:50.240
Just just just this one morning, just a little bit.
link |
01:43:52.960
I mean, I don't know if you can speak to the birth of fiat currency.
link |
01:44:00.240
Is there some interesting characteristics to that those early steps that created it?
link |
01:44:07.680
Could it have been averted or is this the natural progression of governments?
link |
01:44:16.000
You know what's funny is that central banking was initially designed to be the custodian
link |
01:44:22.040
of gold, right?
link |
01:44:23.600
So they were going to custody the gold issue paper on top of it and then they would maintain
link |
01:44:31.400
you could trust the public stamp effectively.
link |
01:44:33.480
You could trust that the central bank had as much gold on reserve as they said they had
link |
01:44:37.400
and they were supposed to be the trustworthy institution.
link |
01:44:39.320
So we went from placing our trust in a free market game theoretic process or trusting gold
link |
01:44:45.880
and we began trusting this institution instead.
link |
01:44:51.840
That institution would not have arisen if the portability of gold was really high.
link |
01:44:58.200
If we could have somehow sent gold across a telecommunications channel, there would
link |
01:45:02.440
have been no need for a central bank.
link |
01:45:05.320
One could have custodied their gold in any information bearing medium, frankly, and they
link |
01:45:10.880
could beam it around the world at any time.
link |
01:45:13.840
So this whole institution itself is rooted in a technological shortcoming of gold.
link |
01:45:21.160
So I think it's another way to think about that is maybe had there been all the gold
link |
01:45:26.880
in the world today fills two Olympic sized swimming pools, all the gold mined throughout
link |
01:45:32.040
all of human history.
link |
01:45:33.040
So there's not a lot, right?
link |
01:45:36.080
What if there had been just like way more, there'd just been, I don't know, 20,000 Olympic
link |
01:45:40.640
swimming pools worth.
link |
01:45:43.320
Portability wouldn't have been as much of an issue.
link |
01:45:46.240
And this is to say assuming gold was still the most scarce metal and all these things.
link |
01:45:52.520
Portability would have been less of an issue.
link |
01:45:54.640
We would have had less dependence or need for a central bank.
link |
01:45:58.080
So I think it's kind of idiosyncratic and that we just happened to end up here on this
link |
01:46:03.160
planet with a certain amount of gold.
link |
01:46:05.160
It best satisfied the properties of money.
link |
01:46:07.520
And a certain amount of humans geographically dispersed such that portability had certain
link |
01:46:12.560
properties that you want to achieve for humans in a geographical space to be able to be an
link |
01:46:18.000
exchange value.
link |
01:46:19.000
It became more of an issue as we globalized.
link |
01:46:21.000
As we became more of a global society, we needed money that could move across space
link |
01:46:25.280
really fast.
link |
01:46:26.280
Right, so we could trade in international capital markets.
link |
01:46:29.760
So that drove the central bank to become the dominant institution of the world.
link |
01:46:35.800
And if you follow the flows of gold throughout history, you know, I've been watching this
link |
01:46:40.440
documentary on World War I and World War II on Netflix.
link |
01:46:43.600
I think it's called World War II in color.
link |
01:46:45.520
Oh, yeah.
link |
01:46:46.520
That's really good.
link |
01:46:47.760
It's so good.
link |
01:46:50.720
When I say gold has been the governor of governments or gold is geopolitical money.
link |
01:46:55.200
Like it is the base layer operating system has been the base layer operating system for
link |
01:47:00.680
analog society.
link |
01:47:02.240
So it's always been about who controls the gold is who makes the rules.
link |
01:47:07.840
And that's in that context is why Bitcoin is so interesting because it is the disruptor
link |
01:47:15.320
to this base level operating system that's function for all of human history.
link |
01:47:21.960
I think this is a good place to ask.
link |
01:47:24.480
We asked the what is money question?
link |
01:47:28.040
What is Bitcoin?
link |
01:47:32.040
That's a question as complicated as what is money?
link |
01:47:35.080
I think if you get a general understanding of money from a number of angles that we could
link |
01:47:43.760
say Bitcoin is the most superior monetary technology that has ever existed.
link |
01:47:51.640
So one of the most superior implementation of the ideas of money that you talked about,
link |
01:47:56.720
you talked about money as speech, you talked about money as an idea.
link |
01:48:01.120
We talked about money as sovereignty.
link |
01:48:04.640
So we're attaching the concept of money to your point to whatever tool best satisfies
link |
01:48:11.720
those properties of money or best renders those services we need for money.
link |
01:48:16.960
And as you said, you're using the word tool and technology interchangeably here.
link |
01:48:21.120
Yes.
link |
01:48:22.120
And another thing to think about here is that we think often in terms of goods or services,
link |
01:48:28.600
but actually everything is a service.
link |
01:48:31.960
So it's not the physical properties of this pen that I find valuable.
link |
01:48:36.880
It's the services that it renders to me that I want to write a letter.
link |
01:48:41.600
This serves me by allowing me to lay ink on paper and communicate information.
link |
01:48:47.960
So value, humans attach value, as we alluded to earlier, to services, not goods.
link |
01:48:56.440
So the properties or the services that money renders that human beings value are those
link |
01:49:00.640
five properties, divisibility, durability, recognizability, portability, scarcity.
link |
01:49:06.400
Metals best satisfied those services historically, but Bitcoin as the most superior monetary technology
link |
01:49:12.920
in human history essentially perfects them.
link |
01:49:17.440
It's as close to perfection as we've ever been.
link |
01:49:19.280
So in terms of divisibility, each Bitcoin can be broken down into 100 million subunits
link |
01:49:24.960
called a Satoshi.
link |
01:49:29.320
If that divisibility were ever a problem, which actually there was a question that came up
link |
01:49:34.640
recently, if you divide the world population by the total supply of Bitcoin, you end up
link |
01:49:38.960
at like 0.3 Bitcoin per person, call it 300,000 Satoshis per person.
link |
01:49:46.280
What if that was not enough to facilitate economic activity?
link |
01:49:50.680
And the answer to that is Bitcoin can soft fork into further divisibility.
link |
01:49:54.640
So if Bitcoin ate all the money in the world, and the average Bitcoin or wealth was say
link |
01:50:00.720
300,000 Satoshis each, but that wasn't divisible enough maybe to buy coffee and do all these
link |
01:50:06.560
day to day transactions, what would happen?
link |
01:50:08.200
Well, we would increase its divisibility.
link |
01:50:09.920
So Bitcoin's perfected divisibility, the divisibility of money, lets us transact across
link |
01:50:15.160
scales, we can buy coffee or we can buy a house.
link |
01:50:21.760
Durability is an interesting one.
link |
01:50:23.200
So clearly something like gold is very durable, it's resistant to degradation over time.
link |
01:50:28.560
Bitcoin is just pure information, but it's stored in a distributed format.
link |
01:50:33.640
So information stored in a distributed fashion tends to be virtually infinitely durable.
link |
01:50:40.800
The example I'd like to give here is something like the Bible.
link |
01:50:43.600
The Bible is just distributed information.
link |
01:50:46.160
It's stored everywhere and nowhere, so to speak.
link |
01:50:49.320
And for that reason, it has outlasted empires.
link |
01:50:53.200
And Bitcoin's similar.
link |
01:50:54.360
You can't make changes to it unilaterally.
link |
01:50:57.280
But to make explicit, the ways in which it is not durable is the fact that it relies
link |
01:51:03.400
on computing infrastructure, like it needs computers.
link |
01:51:08.440
So if you were to destroy all the computers in the world, it needs mechanisms.
link |
01:51:13.560
The mechanisms that store and transfer information.
link |
01:51:16.600
That's right.
link |
01:51:17.840
And so you could attack it, you could attack gold in the same kind of way as opposed to
link |
01:51:22.600
the physics, but it's probably easier to destroy all the computers in the world than
link |
01:51:27.400
it is to destroy all the gold in the world.
link |
01:51:30.600
Maybe not.
link |
01:51:31.600
I don't know.
link |
01:51:32.600
Anyway.
link |
01:51:33.600
Yeah.
link |
01:51:34.600
You're right.
link |
01:51:35.600
Maybe I'm not sure which one would be harder to destroy, but the other thing is there's
link |
01:51:40.800
a dynamic incentive.
link |
01:51:41.960
So every time you destroy Bitcoin miners, you're creating incentives for anyone else
link |
01:51:46.520
with access to electricity to mine because you're making the algorithm easier.
link |
01:51:50.640
Yeah.
link |
01:51:51.640
So the destruction is difficult because of the decentralized nature of the whole thing.
link |
01:51:56.680
And the difficulty adjustment.
link |
01:51:57.680
Yeah.
link |
01:51:58.680
So you're going to have to use nuclear weapons and cover the whole globe.
link |
01:52:02.160
But anyway.
link |
01:52:03.160
Yeah.
link |
01:52:04.160
And by then, we've got much bigger problems than money, right?
link |
01:52:06.560
That's right.
link |
01:52:08.120
So okay.
link |
01:52:09.120
So that's durability.
link |
01:52:10.120
Bitcoin's pure information.
link |
01:52:12.360
It can move at the speed of light, can't get much faster than that.
link |
01:52:16.400
Recognizability refers to the ability to verify the veracity of the money or its authenticity.
link |
01:52:23.480
So you can actually, when we used to transact gold, there were time honored techniques for
link |
01:52:28.700
verifying that it was gold and not gold plated lead.
link |
01:52:32.480
For instance, this is where we get the term sound money.
link |
01:52:34.800
A gold coin made a very particular sound when dropped from a certain height.
link |
01:52:38.680
You've seen people biting coins.
link |
01:52:40.320
These are all techniques for testing the authenticity of gold.
link |
01:52:44.240
And with Bitcoin, we have something unique in that if you're running a full node, you
link |
01:52:48.440
can verify that the Bitcoin is Bitcoin, right?
link |
01:52:51.200
It cannot be tampered with, it cannot be faked.
link |
01:52:55.200
And in addition to that, as a node operator, you can audit the total supply of Bitcoin
link |
01:52:59.080
at any time, which is unlike any money in history.
link |
01:53:01.680
So you know, with full certainty, if you're holding 1000 Bitcoin, you have 1000 out of
link |
01:53:08.080
a possible 21 million forever.
link |
01:53:10.440
You have a guaranteed fraction of the total supply.
link |
01:53:12.680
Yeah.
link |
01:53:13.680
So a full node contains information about every transaction that's ever been had.
link |
01:53:16.640
So you can figure out, yeah, I mean, all the truth of this money is all right there.
link |
01:53:23.680
Yeah.
link |
01:53:24.680
It's like a fractal constituent of the whole network, right?
link |
01:53:27.120
The whole Bitcoin blockchain is comprised in a node too.
link |
01:53:31.200
Not the proof of work piece, but the entire transaction history.
link |
01:53:35.960
And so that's unique as well.
link |
01:53:37.080
And that's what makes Bitcoin the ultimate store value, is that you know with certainty
link |
01:53:42.320
what the total supply is and will ever be.
link |
01:53:45.200
And you know that your share of that supply is fixed.
link |
01:53:49.520
It cannot change.
link |
01:53:50.520
It can only improve actually.
link |
01:53:51.800
If someone loses, you know, if the Satoshi stash is truly gone forever, the million Bitcoin
link |
01:53:56.920
never moves, then we're talking about 1000 Bitcoin out of 20 million instead and so on
link |
01:54:01.880
and so forth.
link |
01:54:02.880
I mean, as more people lose access to their Bitcoin, they're basically making a contribution
link |
01:54:07.400
to everyone else.
link |
01:54:08.400
It's anti dilutive.
link |
01:54:09.400
And there are certain properties of Bitcoin that are sort of a little bit more into the
link |
01:54:14.600
details that ensure that the full nodes, like the size of all the transactions that ever
link |
01:54:21.440
happened, at least currently can be stored in a single computer, for example.
link |
01:54:25.800
So it doesn't blow up too quickly.
link |
01:54:28.200
That's right.
link |
01:54:29.200
You know, there's arguments that that's not necessary, you can make arguments for that
link |
01:54:33.200
to be a very nice property, but you can also say that there's like drawbacks to it.
link |
01:54:38.400
That's hence the block size debates and all those kinds of things.
link |
01:54:42.640
Yeah.
link |
01:54:43.640
That was the Bitcoin cash civil war, right?
link |
01:54:45.360
It was that particular piece.
link |
01:54:48.400
And you know, ostensibly, they were saying, oh, we need more transaction throughput to
link |
01:54:53.640
buy more coffee and do more transactions.
link |
01:54:55.520
But what they were actually doing was increasing the size of computing power necessary to run
link |
01:55:02.400
a full node, which would have theoretically compromised decentralization.
link |
01:55:06.880
So yeah, but it would, in theory, you know, in theory, it would allow you to have much
link |
01:55:13.760
more transactions.
link |
01:55:15.200
That's right.
link |
01:55:16.440
But the drawback, it would, because of no longer it can be stored in a single computer,
link |
01:55:21.960
in a single computer, then it naturally leads to decentralization, the same kind of thing
link |
01:55:26.680
we see with gold, which would have compromised its survivability, right?
link |
01:55:31.880
So what else is the last one, which leads straight into this one actually is the most
link |
01:55:37.040
important one of money, which is scarcity, and that you need to know the supply is fixed
link |
01:55:45.200
and safeguarded from counterfeiting and inflation, which counterfeiting and inflation are the
link |
01:55:51.920
same thing, by the way.
link |
01:55:54.160
Counterfeiting is criminalized inflation, inflation is legalized counterfeiting.
link |
01:56:00.200
So central banks today, when they say they're printing money, they're not their counterfeiting
link |
01:56:03.760
currency.
link |
01:56:05.560
That's a very important part.
link |
01:56:07.320
And Bitcoin, as I've argued in some of my writing, is more than just an invention.
link |
01:56:13.600
It's actually the discovery of absolute scarcity and that we have unveiled a property of money
link |
01:56:19.960
that we will only discover once.
link |
01:56:23.880
And it's got really major ramifications for the world at large.
link |
01:56:28.800
So with gold, for instance, as we've covered, it became money because it was the most relatively
link |
01:56:36.320
scarce monetary metal, right?
link |
01:56:38.040
Its supply was hardest to increase over time.
link |
01:56:41.360
However, if we could somehow flip a switch today and make everyone in the world go out
link |
01:56:45.680
and start mining gold, we could increase the supply much more quickly.
link |
01:56:49.120
We could, you know, it's historic inflation rates about 2%.
link |
01:56:52.000
We could double that pretty quickly.
link |
01:56:54.960
Bitcoin, with Bitcoin, it is not possible.
link |
01:56:58.640
So no matter how much effort and energy and capital and operational expenditure we pour
link |
01:57:03.880
into the mining network, we cannot deviate from its fixed and diminishing supply curve
link |
01:57:09.920
from between now and the last Bitcoin being mined in 2140 because of the difficulty adjustment.
link |
01:57:14.960
It's constantly, it's adapting to human action, actually.
link |
01:57:18.440
So the harder we pursue it, the more that it recedes.
link |
01:57:22.000
And then the less we pursue it, the more available it makes itself.
link |
01:57:26.120
And this is, it's a real major breakthrough because it's the closest thing to perfect
link |
01:57:33.760
information we've ever had in an economy.
link |
01:57:37.400
And perfect information is this, it's a theoretical but unattainable state of the market where
link |
01:57:45.680
all market actors have all the relevant information about everything so that they can compete
link |
01:57:51.240
as efficiently as possible.
link |
01:57:53.160
And in the state of pure information, we have, I'm sorry, perfect information, we have perfect
link |
01:57:57.880
competition.
link |
01:57:58.880
And in perfect competition, we maximize wealth generation.
link |
01:58:03.160
So we're competing as freely as possible from coercive and violent impediments.
link |
01:58:10.160
And so I think Bitcoin in that sense is going to pull the world closer to a state of perfect
link |
01:58:18.680
competition than we've ever been before, which would increase wealth generation to an extent
link |
01:58:24.960
we've never seen before.
link |
01:58:27.720
Many of the things you said about Bitcoin also hold for other cryptocurrency technologies
link |
01:58:32.680
that followed after.
link |
01:58:36.160
Can you say something to why you think Bitcoin is the superior technology from a pragmatic
link |
01:58:44.640
truth perspective than say Ethereum, but also other cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin Cash,
link |
01:58:52.760
like other hard forks of Bitcoin, and maybe things that might yet to be invent tools yet
link |
01:59:00.240
to be invented.
link |
01:59:02.040
So this is a good point of argument because a lot of people have countered me and said,
link |
01:59:08.000
Bitcoin cannot be absolute, absolute scarcity because you can fork it and create something
link |
01:59:13.040
with the same properties as Bitcoin or potentially even better properties, right?
link |
01:59:17.680
You create something with a deflationary monetary policy.
link |
01:59:21.720
That's what Bitcoin Cash was actually, it forked Bitcoin with all of the same properties
link |
01:59:26.040
except for the block size that we alluded to earlier.
link |
01:59:29.280
The problem is that money is valued, again, it's the good with a configuration of demand
link |
01:59:36.560
that is predominantly marketability.
link |
01:59:40.560
So it is valued based on its liquidity.
link |
01:59:43.680
That is, how many other trading partners are there in that monetary network?
link |
01:59:48.920
So it is a network valued because of its liquidity and network effects.
link |
01:59:54.920
So any new entrant into the market for money is incentivized to always choose the money
link |
02:00:02.720
with the deepest liquidity and the most network effects.
link |
02:00:06.680
This is why money has tended to be a winner take all market because it's essentially a
link |
02:00:11.600
single purpose tool, right?
link |
02:00:13.560
It is a tool for, if we consider that tools are time saving devices, right?
link |
02:00:19.680
The shovel that you dig more holes per man hour than you can with your bare hands, money
link |
02:00:23.360
is a tool, there's yet another definition of money that lets us calculate, negotiate
link |
02:00:28.520
and execute trades more quickly.
link |
02:00:31.680
So that function tends to coalesce towards one solution.
link |
02:00:38.720
And so the short answer would be that for the same reasons, quantifiable reasons, right,
link |
02:00:44.680
like inflation resistance and liquidity and network effects, that we have one analog gold,
link |
02:00:50.720
we're only likely to have one digital gold.
link |
02:00:53.680
And I think the Bitcoin cash fork proves that out empirically.
link |
02:00:57.360
It's a good case study because...
link |
02:00:59.080
Well, it's for a case study, right?
link |
02:01:01.000
But okay, so that's really well put.
link |
02:01:03.040
So like gold was sticky.
link |
02:01:06.120
Once it was accepted, the network effects, the winner take all took over.
link |
02:01:11.160
And here's a fundamentally different kind of like analog versus digital is a leap technologies.
link |
02:01:20.040
And you're suggesting that there may not be, there's unlikely to be other leaps of that
link |
02:01:28.280
kind into a whole nother kind of space of technologies.
link |
02:01:32.240
I would argue that Bitcoin, it's kind of like the ideological synthesis of gold, taking
link |
02:01:38.240
the monetary properties of gold and combining them with the internet itself.
link |
02:01:42.000
And in doing so, it has essentially perfected the properties of money, right?
link |
02:01:47.200
You can't get more divisible, durable, recognizable, portable or scarce than Bitcoin.
link |
02:01:51.880
So Satoshi has kind of, he left no design space for superior technology to intercede
link |
02:01:59.120
and outcompete Bitcoin at this point now that it's established liquidity in the network
link |
02:02:03.120
effects.
link |
02:02:04.120
Far superior technology, right?
link |
02:02:05.120
Yeah, but it's a combination of the tech itself and the social layer that is coalesced
link |
02:02:09.920
to it.
link |
02:02:10.920
You can't separate those two out.
link |
02:02:11.920
That's right.
link |
02:02:12.920
They're all connected and then the political as well.
link |
02:02:14.800
I mean, but the portability, for example, that's another way to phrase that is the, what
link |
02:02:20.160
is it?
link |
02:02:21.160
The scaling.
link |
02:02:22.160
So the number of transactions, that's a limitation for Bitcoin that many argues a feature, many
link |
02:02:29.760
argues a bug.
link |
02:02:30.920
You have a bunch of cryptocurrency technologies that are able to achieve much faster frequency
link |
02:02:38.960
of transactions, much more transactions, all that kind of stuff.
link |
02:02:45.000
What are your thoughts on that?
link |
02:02:48.200
The low level of transactions is possible with Bitcoin.
link |
02:02:51.920
Do you think that's a feature?
link |
02:02:52.920
Do you think that's a bug?
link |
02:02:55.160
Necessary for security, actually.
link |
02:02:56.960
And even these other crypto assets that settle more quickly, they settle with less assurance
link |
02:03:01.960
of finality.
link |
02:03:03.760
So Nick Carter has a great piece on this actually called, the settlement assurance is stupid.
link |
02:03:09.280
It's really good.
link |
02:03:10.280
Where the gist of it is that there is more work being done in each block of Bitcoin that
link |
02:03:16.920
it can't, it is less vulnerable to reversion.
link |
02:03:20.800
So it's giving you higher degrees of assurance that your settlement or your trade has occurred
link |
02:03:25.920
with finality, whereas other blockchains are much more vulnerable.
link |
02:03:31.400
And again, with Bitcoin, the evolutionary path of money with gold is that it was first
link |
02:03:38.800
used as a collectible.
link |
02:03:40.640
It then became used as a store value.
link |
02:03:43.360
After it had stored enough value, it began to be used as a medium of exchange.
link |
02:03:48.840
And then finally, when it was used widely enough as a medium of exchange, it becomes
link |
02:03:51.600
a unit of account.
link |
02:03:52.600
We actually start to think in the money.
link |
02:03:55.280
Bitcoin's following a similar path.
link |
02:03:57.840
So it started out as kind of a collectible.
link |
02:04:00.520
Today I would argue it's a store value, one of the most effective store value we've ever
link |
02:04:04.280
seen.
link |
02:04:05.760
So that evolutionary path that Bitcoin's following is similar to gold.
link |
02:04:10.480
First a collectible.
link |
02:04:11.480
Today is store value.
link |
02:04:12.480
To be an effective store value, it has to optimize for supply cap.
link |
02:04:18.640
That has to be the first, and this is all Bitcoin really needs to do to be successful,
link |
02:04:23.040
by the way.
link |
02:04:24.040
Exactly what it's been doing for 12 years virtually flawlessly, which is keep creating
link |
02:04:28.400
a block every 10 minutes, and keep enforcing a supply cap of 21 million.
link |
02:04:34.080
As long as those two things hold, it is sound money, the ultimate sound money, the most
link |
02:04:43.360
inflation resistant money there's ever been.
link |
02:04:44.760
It's actually completely immune.
link |
02:04:47.960
It's taken unexpected inflation to 0%.
link |
02:04:50.440
We know with perfect certainty what Bitcoin supply will ever be.
link |
02:04:55.200
For it to be used more broadly as a medium of exchange, it can't make trade offs at the
link |
02:05:01.040
base layer to increase its portability, for instance, even though portability is maybe
link |
02:05:07.120
kind of a misnomer because Bitcoin has extremely high portability, just doesn't have extremely
link |
02:05:11.520
high transaction throughput.
link |
02:05:13.600
So we could say you can move it pretty quickly anywhere in the world as long as you're willing
link |
02:05:18.040
to bid up for the block space, but you can't satisfy all the world's economic volume.
link |
02:05:25.000
You can't do 300 million transactions per second like you can on a centralized database
link |
02:05:28.720
like Visa.
link |
02:05:30.800
But Bitcoin needs to be this, it has to be a store value first before it can be a medium
link |
02:05:37.160
of exchange.
link |
02:05:38.880
So it has to protect the supply cap first before making any trade offs for that.
link |
02:05:44.440
And I would argue that that's why Bitcoin is so rigid is that it's optimized for survivability
link |
02:05:50.000
and optimized for that supply cap, and it's pushing experimentation and other features
link |
02:05:56.000
that would increase its transaction throughput to higher layers.
link |
02:05:59.540
So I think Lightning Network is something that's very interesting.
link |
02:06:03.560
It's still early, but there's a lot of throughput already being used on the Lightning Network.
link |
02:06:10.960
And it makes some slight trade offs in terms of the trust minimization of Bitcoin, you
link |
02:06:16.120
end up trusting these smart contracts instead of move the Bitcoin.
link |
02:06:19.600
Which you pick up nearly unlimited transaction throughput.
link |
02:06:23.040
So that's how, and that's how biology evolves, that's how the internet evolved, it evolves
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02:06:27.080
in layers.
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02:06:28.080
So I think Bitcoin, you can sort of conceive of it as the latest layer to the internet.
link |
02:06:33.880
And it's one that preserves this store value property better than any asset we've ever
link |
02:06:38.080
had.
link |
02:06:39.080
Let me ask sort of a critical question of if you're wrong about your statements of about
link |
02:06:45.160
Bitcoin, you find out years from now that you were wrong, what would that look like?
link |
02:06:54.160
What would be the things that make you realize you were wrong?
link |
02:06:57.920
Likely ideas or crazy out there ideas?
link |
02:07:01.400
Do you think about this kind of stuff all the time?
link |
02:07:04.720
Because you speak very confidently about Bitcoin and one of the things, let me put it this
link |
02:07:10.840
way.
link |
02:07:11.840
I think certainty, I feel like that's like a stoic statement, certainty leads to ruin,
link |
02:07:18.560
something like that.
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02:07:20.060
Like certainty I think is an antithesis to progress often.
link |
02:07:27.080
And especially in your writing, but this is true for the Bitcoin community, there's
link |
02:07:31.880
a certainty about the Bitcoin.
link |
02:07:35.240
And that makes me very skeptical, no matter how good the ideas are.
link |
02:07:39.160
Whatever things are good, this might be the Russian and me.
link |
02:07:42.240
I think like, what are the ways this is going to go wrong?
link |
02:07:46.360
So what do you think are the ways this might go wrong or you're wrong in your conception
link |
02:07:51.320
of what Bitcoin is?
link |
02:07:53.040
Yeah, so science evolves via negativa, meaning that we're not proving hypotheses and that's
link |
02:08:05.080
what becomes the body of science.
link |
02:08:08.280
This is whatever is left over as we disprove hypotheses.
link |
02:08:12.800
Whatever we can empirically, through experimentation, disprove gets discarded and whatever remains,
link |
02:08:22.200
whatever theory remains, it hasn't been disproven is science effectively.
link |
02:08:28.680
This process is similar to market actors zeroing in on a store value.
link |
02:08:35.720
They're experimenting with different forms of storing wealth across time.
link |
02:08:41.480
Some do better than others and eventually everyone ends up on the one that is best.
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02:08:45.720
That's what gold was.
link |
02:08:48.000
In terms of understanding Bitcoin, I look at it as a similar approach and that is the
link |
02:08:54.280
main question I'm asking myself is, how do you stop this thing?
link |
02:08:57.720
How do you turn it off?
link |
02:08:59.320
How do you end it if you're a nation state, particularly, who has the most to lose in
link |
02:09:03.560
this transition?
link |
02:09:05.440
What is the attack vector by which they neutralize Bitcoin?
link |
02:09:08.880
That is the $250 trillion question.
link |
02:09:14.640
I've spent five years thinking about this thing very deeply.
link |
02:09:17.280
I've read everything on monetary history.
link |
02:09:19.400
I can get my hands on.
link |
02:09:23.800
The general thought of how it is stopped, and this is the snag point that a lot of people
link |
02:09:30.240
get to in their explorations down the rabbit hole, is they just say the government will
link |
02:09:33.840
never allow it.
link |
02:09:35.400
That becomes their bottom.
link |
02:09:36.400
It's like, all right, Bitcoin's interesting, it's superior money, blah, blah, blah, but
link |
02:09:39.560
the government will never allow it.
link |
02:09:41.160
Was Ray Dalio, did he say that?
link |
02:09:43.360
Dalio is currently stuck there.
link |
02:09:46.040
Ray Dalio said that Bitcoin seems to be too promising.
link |
02:09:53.120
If it is in fact as promising as it looks, governments are going to, I don't forget what
link |
02:09:59.880
the exact quote is, but not allow it.
link |
02:10:02.440
The government will ban it.
link |
02:10:06.280
How do you get Ray Dalio unstuck from your perspective?
link |
02:10:10.680
How do you get unstuck from that idea, the governments?
link |
02:10:14.920
How do you prevent governments from stopping a thing that threatens centralized power?
link |
02:10:23.520
Bitcoin is an idea.
link |
02:10:27.320
Governments that are really good at fighting centralized threats to their power, whether
link |
02:10:35.240
that's a currency counterfeiter or a competing nation state or business they don't like,
link |
02:10:40.520
or an individual they don't like, they can kill them, they can throw them in jail, they
link |
02:10:45.040
can use any number of course of our violent tactics to suppress it.
link |
02:10:49.480
How do you point a gun at an idea?
link |
02:10:52.760
How do you coerce an idea?
link |
02:10:58.800
And that's, there is some anecdotal history here where there's the PGP case, which in
link |
02:11:07.120
the United States, the court was trying to classify it as munitions.
link |
02:11:12.400
When we were shipping this pretty good privacy software overseas, government wanted to classify
link |
02:11:18.720
it as munitions and restrict that exportation.
link |
02:11:22.600
But and this was a circuit court case precedent when the PGP attorneys actually printed out
link |
02:11:29.200
the source code on paper and presented it as evidence in the court, all of a sudden it
link |
02:11:34.120
became protected under freedom of speech and that it's just code is speech, code is language
link |
02:11:40.160
and therefore at least in the United States, it's protected under the First Amendment.
link |
02:11:47.880
I think a government ban would be largely unenforceable, frankly, on Bitcoin, being
link |
02:11:54.760
that it's pure information.
link |
02:11:57.000
If you suppress market actors from using it in one jurisdiction, you're just creating
link |
02:12:02.720
incentives for them to go elsewhere and you're actually increasing incentives for other jurisdictions
link |
02:12:08.480
to be favorable towards it because then they can create, they get to benefit from the tax
link |
02:12:14.040
revenue and the businesses and the innovation that's occurring in and around Bitcoin as
link |
02:12:18.120
a result.
link |
02:12:19.120
So you don't think if a particular central bank like in Europe or United States bans it
link |
02:12:27.040
not maybe using those terms, but in some kind of way, you think there's a that provides
link |
02:12:31.720
a really strong incentive for the other big players to enable it?
link |
02:12:36.440
That's right.
link |
02:12:38.640
And they're more likely, by the way, since governments know this, by the way, to the
link |
02:12:42.560
other thing that causes a government to shoot itself in the foot is that if they ban something,
link |
02:12:48.360
they draw a lot of attention to it.
link |
02:12:50.800
People are smart.
link |
02:12:51.800
I mean, people ask why?
link |
02:12:53.040
Why would a government ban it?
link |
02:12:54.040
Why can't I use this?
link |
02:12:55.320
So that's kind of typically be the last arrow in their quiver.
link |
02:12:59.840
They may try to ban it if Bitcoin really starts to monetize very quickly and the power structures
link |
02:13:05.640
that they impose today start to dissolve faster than others might think they will, then they
link |
02:13:12.400
might try and ban it.
link |
02:13:13.560
But I think that ban will be largely unenforceable.
link |
02:13:17.840
They're more likely to tax it, which they already do tax it.
link |
02:13:21.600
They're likely to increase taxation of it.
link |
02:13:25.560
They're likely to try and make it more white market by actually tracing Bitcoin, seeing
link |
02:13:31.160
who has it, attaching identities to Bitcoin ownership and making sure that they're getting
link |
02:13:37.160
their pound of flesh on all the transactions it results in.
link |
02:13:41.800
But I don't think, the other thing about this is, so we saw the internet outcompete intranets
link |
02:13:53.040
in that we could say that open source networks tend to outcompete closed source networks.
link |
02:13:56.840
And there's a really good reason for this.
link |
02:13:58.840
And it's because in a closed source network, there are costs associated with defending
link |
02:14:05.800
the network itself.
link |
02:14:08.240
So you have to, the network owners, the owners of the closed source network have to expend
link |
02:14:14.200
resources protecting it from competitors, and they have to expend resources imposing
link |
02:14:19.160
its rules because people, they're not voluntarily adopted rules, so you actually have to impose
link |
02:14:24.040
these rule sets.
link |
02:14:25.040
Whereas an open source network, which is something much more akin to capitalism in its pure sense,
link |
02:14:31.040
these are voluntarily adopted rules.
link |
02:14:33.080
So all market participants have agreed and consented to this rule set, so there's no
link |
02:14:37.040
enforcement costs and there's no turf protection because anyone can freely enter or exit the
link |
02:14:41.200
open network.
link |
02:14:43.080
For that energetic reason, I think open networks outcompete closed networks typically.
link |
02:14:50.760
And in the digital age, that's why I think, that's why internet outcompetes intranet and
link |
02:14:55.240
that's why open source networks are going to eat closed source networks.
link |
02:14:58.880
So what Bitcoin would be in that lens is the ultimate open source monetary network devouring
link |
02:15:04.800
closed source central bank monetary networks.
link |
02:15:08.600
And I just don't see how there's no possibility of unilaterally stopping Bitcoin or destroying
link |
02:15:16.960
it.
link |
02:15:17.960
So then they're more likely to regulate or tax it.
link |
02:15:23.440
And again, the other fallacy here is that a lot of people tend to think of governments
link |
02:15:26.680
as these singular indivisible entities that just move under one plan, but in reality it's
link |
02:15:33.720
a lot of people, right?
link |
02:15:34.920
And a lot of people with loosely coupled interests and agendas and whatnot.
link |
02:15:40.480
Regulators and others with wearing their citizen hat, they're going to see this thing monetizing.
link |
02:15:47.360
They're going to be on the front lines of trying to regulate it, trying to control it.
link |
02:15:52.200
And I think what's likely to happen is they're going to start to adopt it, to buy some of
link |
02:15:56.320
it even as an individual or possibly even ultimately at a central bank or sovereign
link |
02:16:02.400
wealth fund level as an insurance policy against its success.
link |
02:16:07.520
And once you start to acquire something and then you have a vested economic interest in
link |
02:16:12.880
its monetization, I think it kind of dissolves any of the power structures that are arrayed
link |
02:16:18.080
against it from the inside.
link |
02:16:20.640
So I've written a lot about this in a new series called Sovereignism, which is based
link |
02:16:25.000
loosely on a book called The Sovereign Individual.
link |
02:16:29.120
And that's the general thesis is that microprocessing technology would devour our organizational
link |
02:16:34.920
models, the most important of which is the nation state.
link |
02:16:38.400
So I think we're going into this world where coercion and violence is just much less rewarding.
link |
02:16:45.920
You can't, the economics of violence are declining because of the low cost of protecting property.
link |
02:16:54.520
You can now protect your monetary property in Bitcoin at orders of magnitude less cost
link |
02:17:02.000
than is necessary to run a banking network.
link |
02:17:04.400
So it changes the way we organize ourselves.
link |
02:17:09.840
And again, if we, zooming back to gold as kind of the original governor to governments,
link |
02:17:15.080
where if they manipulated the money, gold would leave their country.
link |
02:17:18.480
That's why governments have taken relatively concerted action to go off of the gold standard.
link |
02:17:25.720
There's a great book on this called The Gold Wars that outlines how governments have been
link |
02:17:31.720
waging a cold war against gold for the past 50 years.
link |
02:17:36.160
Bitcoin sort of renews hope for that free market governor of governments.
link |
02:17:41.680
And that is this digital gold that governments cannot stop or coopt.
link |
02:17:45.640
So I think it's something, that's why I think it's such a big deal is that it is changing,
link |
02:17:54.560
it's a new useful fiction, you might say, a useful fiction that's superordinate to the
link |
02:17:59.080
mythology of the nation state and government as the dominant institution in the world.
link |
02:18:04.000
Well, I hope you're right that all forms of centralized power start breaking apart naturally.
link |
02:18:12.800
Digital governments, the more and more power is given to the individual, whatever the technology
link |
02:18:17.640
is, and Bitcoin seems to be a promising technology that empowers, that enables that, that seems
link |
02:18:23.160
to be the trend.
link |
02:18:24.160
And that's a promising trend from a, at least from a perspective of somebody who values
link |
02:18:30.080
this particular biological meat bag that's full of consciousness.
link |
02:18:34.760
I think Bitcoin is exposing the greatest scam in human history, which is political authority.
link |
02:18:40.840
Like who gives anyone the right to be politically, have political authority over anyone else.
link |
02:18:46.320
People should be free to adopt the rules and systems and tools that best suit their needs.
link |
02:18:52.480
And that arc of history we covered earlier, where as socioeconomic systems have become
link |
02:19:00.160
more favorable towards individual sovereignty, the more wealthy we have become.
link |
02:19:06.120
The more we have given the individual, we've maximized individual choice.
link |
02:19:10.520
The more wealth that society has created, and the more it has outcompeted the systems
link |
02:19:14.800
that have come before it.
link |
02:19:15.800
The latest would be capitalism triumphing over socialism.
link |
02:19:21.320
Before maybe we eat UR in Texas, you brought over some brisket.
link |
02:19:25.960
Before we may be indulged in that, let me bring up one quick topic and then we'll take
link |
02:19:30.360
a break.
link |
02:19:31.760
And the topic of what some may term the toxicity of the Bitcoin community, that you've written
link |
02:19:40.840
that Bitcoin toxicity is tough love.
link |
02:19:44.520
Do you want to break that apart a little bit, sort of the idea, the philosophy of the toxicity
link |
02:19:52.040
that seems to be present in part in the Bitcoin community?
link |
02:19:58.120
Yeah, we were talking about this a little bit before we recorded, and I've been through
link |
02:20:04.240
the gauntlet with Bitcoin toxicity as well.
link |
02:20:07.560
I came into this space professionally in 2017, was originally running a multi strategy crypto
link |
02:20:15.240
asset hedge fund.
link |
02:20:17.600
And my initial investment thesis on the world was that Bitcoin was a big deal, but there
link |
02:20:23.400
were all these other exciting coins and projects and ways the technology was going to be used.
link |
02:20:29.240
And that view of reality met this immune, I guess you could say as an ideological immune
link |
02:20:37.360
system, this Bitcoin toxicity, in that it's kind of a filter that's trying to catch bad
link |
02:20:43.480
or useless or even scamming ideas that this space is very well known for.
link |
02:20:52.960
As we've touched on today, Bitcoin, in my opinion, is this world's shattering innovation,
link |
02:20:58.040
but it's in a sea of the most scammy stuff ever.
link |
02:21:03.040
Anybody can go and create a coin.
link |
02:21:05.640
So you can go and launch one immediately online, and you can throw up a website, an
link |
02:21:11.600
advisor page, post a white paper talking about how great your technology is going to be and
link |
02:21:16.600
how it's going to change the world, and you can raise $30 million in Bitcoin or Ethereum
link |
02:21:20.760
in 30 seconds kind of thing.
link |
02:21:22.760
So it's drawn in a lot of this scam artistry, you might say.
link |
02:21:27.600
And I think people living through that, because there is this natural predilection for people,
link |
02:21:33.560
when they first come into Bitcoin, you're excited about it, then you get lost in the
link |
02:21:36.960
shit coin universe.
link |
02:21:39.600
And then just looking at the market success of Bitcoin versus, and when I use the word
link |
02:21:45.360
shit coin, I'm just...
link |
02:21:47.360
You say with all the love in the world.
link |
02:21:49.200
All the love in the world, I guess you could call me a toxic maximalist in some ways, although
link |
02:21:53.320
I consider myself a freedom maximalist, not a Bitcoin maximalist.
link |
02:21:56.160
Yeah, I saw that line.
link |
02:21:57.720
That's a good line.
link |
02:22:00.200
Bitcoin, tracking the market success of Bitcoin versus alternative crypto assets, the signal
link |
02:22:06.720
is very clear that Bitcoin has outcompeted all of them.
link |
02:22:09.560
So I think that Bitcoin cultural toxicity has evolved as an immune response to those
link |
02:22:14.720
bad ideas, which is actually, if you think about it, kind of is a tough love.
link |
02:22:19.160
You don't want new entrance to the space to get lost in shit coin jungle and learn the
link |
02:22:25.640
hard way the way many Bitcoin maximalists have that the real innovation is Bitcoin.
link |
02:22:31.600
But like an immune system, I think it can also go too far.
link |
02:22:36.640
And so I think it's useful when it is defending the space from false narratives, we might say,
link |
02:22:43.560
but it becomes detrimental when it's attacking people that are inquiring about Bitcoin or
link |
02:22:50.080
people that are approaching Bitcoin with a good spirit and good intention and a desire
link |
02:22:56.200
to learn.
link |
02:22:57.200
Because then at that point, it's actually impeding the free flow of ideas, which the example
link |
02:23:02.840
in your clip that was totally taken out of context.
link |
02:23:06.600
And then you're literally just saying, I'm here to learn and contribute.
link |
02:23:09.240
I think I've got some stuff to do.
link |
02:23:10.960
And then people attack that.
link |
02:23:11.960
Like that doesn't make any fucking sense.
link |
02:23:13.680
It's like you're attacking someone who's approaching it in a good spirit and asking questions.
link |
02:23:17.960
Yeah.
link |
02:23:18.960
And I think sometimes talking about it, the toxicity in the Bitcoin community as an immune
link |
02:23:24.720
response has a negative effect of giving it a pass because it almost says, look, it equates
link |
02:23:34.160
it with the human immune system, which seems to do a really good job.
link |
02:23:38.720
And so you could say that the toxicity has a lot of features in the sea of fraudulent
link |
02:23:46.800
projects that steal money from people.
link |
02:23:52.360
It's really useful to make sure that you give people the harsh truth about who is and isn't
link |
02:23:57.720
a scammer.
link |
02:24:00.200
You have to take it away from that metaphor of the immune system and look at basic human
link |
02:24:05.480
nature.
link |
02:24:06.960
And human nature can go to some dark places, which is it's sad to say that some people,
link |
02:24:15.520
maybe many of us can enjoy for its own sake the toxicity, the mockery, the derision.
link |
02:24:23.720
And you stop being part of the immune system that makes a successful idea propagate and
link |
02:24:31.240
start being a sort of a destructive virus yourself.
link |
02:24:35.400
And that's something I think about because I am new to this particular immune system,
link |
02:24:43.240
but I've explored other immune systems.
link |
02:24:46.480
And I think you understand this world much better than me, but I tend to prefer sort
link |
02:24:56.520
of love as a mechanism for spreading ideas to err on the side of love and kindness and
link |
02:25:06.360
almost like an open mindedness in a way where you're constantly lowering yourself in the
link |
02:25:13.320
face of other ideas, constantly questioning yourself.
link |
02:25:18.000
But I think I understand that that might be more applicable in certain contexts, like
link |
02:25:25.240
maybe in the space of science or something like that.
link |
02:25:28.240
But in the space of Bitcoin, as it currently stands, there's so many people that are trying
link |
02:25:33.120
to scam others out of their money that the kind of harshness required is different.
link |
02:25:38.680
Nevertheless, I do want to put it on people like yourself and others who I know you wouldn't
link |
02:25:47.080
consider yourself this, but you're one of the faces or leaders in this space to call
link |
02:25:51.720
people out a little bit, to inspire them to be more loving, I suppose.
link |
02:25:57.280
But it's difficult because you want to walk that line carefully.
link |
02:25:59.800
You don't want to be too loving and open minded, otherwise your brain falls out.
link |
02:26:04.760
I get it.
link |
02:26:05.760
It's a difficult balance to walk.
link |
02:26:07.000
It is subtle and it's nuanced and it is difficult to walk.
link |
02:26:11.240
And I think that's why I try to say tough love because when we're young, we may have
link |
02:26:18.000
certain ideas about the way we want our life to go, but then maybe our parents are not
link |
02:26:24.080
letting us do certain things and we think they're, I know when I was a kid, I wanted
link |
02:26:27.400
to get my, when I was in fifth grade, I wanted to get my ear pierced, my mom wouldn't let
link |
02:26:30.920
me do it.
link |
02:26:31.920
And I was like, oh, come on, mom, I thought it was so cool.
link |
02:26:34.440
And then two years later, I'm like, thank you, mom, for letting me get my ear pierced.
link |
02:26:39.480
I think it comes from a place of good intention that they are actually, they have asked themselves
link |
02:26:45.800
that question, right, that they've been inquiring and why not this crypto asset or this crypto
link |
02:26:51.560
asset?
link |
02:26:52.560
And they've done the exploration.
link |
02:26:53.560
They keep coming back to Bitcoin and they've seen people being taken advantage of.
link |
02:26:59.760
But you know, to your point, it's like it can, this tough love can become detrimental
link |
02:27:06.680
just like the immune system can become detrimental, right?
link |
02:27:09.000
It can overreact and it can actually harm the human body.
link |
02:27:12.560
So I would say that it's, it's such a tricky and nuanced topic that even biology hasn't
link |
02:27:17.160
figured it out, right?
link |
02:27:18.160
A lot of people have autoimmune diseases.
link |
02:27:22.080
And then there's the other thing that we have this natural, I agree with you about love.
link |
02:27:25.800
I think love is like the deepest value.
link |
02:27:28.800
That's a whole nother philosophical thing, but it's, we're biologically programmed to
link |
02:27:34.840
pay more attention to things that are adversarial or harmful, right?
link |
02:27:39.040
That's part of the, us protecting the meat suit, so to speak.
link |
02:27:42.480
So there is some, maybe better delivery method by being a little bit toxic to really get
link |
02:27:49.960
the point across like, Hey, don't get lost over here.
link |
02:27:53.720
These things can hurt you.
link |
02:27:55.840
Really try to focus on Bitcoin, but the toxicity of that message, I guess it increases its
link |
02:28:00.680
ability to penetrate the individual, but it can also go too far.
link |
02:28:04.280
So it is.
link |
02:28:05.280
It's interesting, but I almost to push back a little bit, toxicity is a funny word.
link |
02:28:11.120
I think a text, maybe another way to say it is, uh, I brought up like Christopher Hitchens
link |
02:28:17.600
and somebody who like, okay, you might say it's toxic or something like that.
link |
02:28:23.800
Cause he's basically a intellectual powerhouse who's also a troll.
link |
02:28:28.920
So he's constantly, it's a guerrilla warfare in the space of ideas.
link |
02:28:33.520
He's very harsh in his disagreements and criticisms, but it's done with incredible grace and skill
link |
02:28:40.600
and poetry.
link |
02:28:42.480
So we could use more of that.
link |
02:28:44.520
We could use more of that.
link |
02:28:45.880
So toxicity just like, um, these are just words.
link |
02:28:53.600
They can mean a lot of different things, but this agreement doesn't have to be done with
link |
02:28:58.320
love, but it should be done with skill if it's to be effective.
link |
02:29:04.440
So there's a lot of ways to be effective in guerrilla warfare, but you want to learn how
link |
02:29:09.560
to shoot or whatever the weapon you're using and to do it well.
link |
02:29:12.960
Some people do better than others and, uh, it's worthwhile to learn to do it well.
link |
02:29:17.800
Again, I prefer love, but even love, you know, just because you think you're communicating
link |
02:29:24.000
a good idea and you're very well, maybe doesn't mean it also doesn't require skill to do the
link |
02:29:29.160
communication well, whether it's this agreement and harsh or more, uh, agreement and loving
link |
02:29:35.800
and so on.
link |
02:29:36.800
Yeah, I think very fundamentally that all of our decisions, you know, we alluded to
link |
02:29:42.960
earlier that every decision is an expression of value or a reaction we take.
link |
02:29:47.200
They ultimately come from fear or love.
link |
02:29:49.680
Fear would be something much more in the biological domain where it's like we're trying to protect
link |
02:29:55.520
ego.
link |
02:29:56.520
We're trying to behave selfishly.
link |
02:29:58.520
This is the domain of sin, you know, I don't know all the sins that gluttony greed, sloth
link |
02:30:03.280
wrath, lust, pride, envy, like these are all selfish behaviors, whereas something like
link |
02:30:08.840
love is much, it's morally superior and that it's more selfless.
link |
02:30:14.480
I don't know that we can properly define love with words at all, but I would say maybe like
link |
02:30:18.400
selfless action could be kind of a generalization of it.
link |
02:30:22.880
And that way it is really hard to your point.
link |
02:30:25.640
It's hard to, to love in a world that has a lot of conflict that might make you fearful
link |
02:30:34.520
if you're really focused on your meat suit.
link |
02:30:36.200
But if you're focused on the bigger picture and you're focused on others and legacy and
link |
02:30:40.360
life that, um, there is a way to do it.
link |
02:30:43.160
And that's why I actually think Christ, that is the highest moral aim, right?
link |
02:30:46.800
He met all of the vitriol in life, you know, betrayal, hate, violence.
link |
02:30:52.680
He met it all with love and he met it with compassion.
link |
02:30:55.920
And that's why, like, regardless of if you believe that he actually lived or any of this,
link |
02:31:01.000
he is symbolic of the highest moral consciousness possible.
link |
02:31:07.880
And you know, Carl Jung would say that that was a suitable alternative to psychoanalysis,
link |
02:31:14.440
was actually setting your moral aim higher and striving towards it diligently.
link |
02:31:19.200
So I mean, I agree completely, we need more of that in the Bitcoin space.
link |
02:31:24.920
We need more of that in the world, frankly.
link |
02:31:27.480
And these things, they're all intertwined, you know.
link |
02:31:31.920
We touched on the beginning, all of us get to decide, but the world does influence kind
link |
02:31:36.040
of if we adopt fear or love.
link |
02:31:39.920
But it takes, I don't know, it takes good systems and it takes, I guess, good leaders
link |
02:31:43.560
to, to set an example.
link |
02:31:45.320
Yeah, I do, I do believe that there's like individual people can have a ripple effect.
link |
02:31:50.640
So that's, that's what I try to do, sort of embody the, I'm just one aunt, but I, one
link |
02:31:55.640
of the things I have faith in is I'm trying to do that more.
link |
02:32:03.320
I know this is a podcast, but I'm trying to do less talking and more doing.
link |
02:32:10.840
I've been disappointed in myself if I'm being honest, how much talking I've been doing,
link |
02:32:15.480
you know, as opposed to like in my private life, I live the thing I talk about, but
link |
02:32:22.720
I also haven't created much, you know, and I believe in the power of individuals that
link |
02:32:29.880
create stuff, I create an idea through those individuals that try to create something new
link |
02:32:34.560
the world progresses and hopefully there's more and more, more and more of those people.
link |
02:32:39.360
So you mentioned kind of people who, what the Bitcoin community might call scammers.
link |
02:32:48.240
I have a lot of passions in my life that I focus a lot of my attention to.
link |
02:32:53.880
You know, Bitcoin doesn't happen to be yet one of them, Bitcoin cryptocurrency, you
link |
02:33:01.320
know, I'm always looking for things to really fall in love with.
link |
02:33:08.600
So how is a person like me supposed to figure out, I also happen to have a platform a little
link |
02:33:15.680
bit and how am I supposed to figure out who is interesting, what is an interesting set
link |
02:33:22.640
of ideas and what or not, because people are financially tied into a lot of the cryptocurrencies
link |
02:33:28.560
that we're talking about, certainly with Bitcoin, you know, their livelihood, their well being
link |
02:33:34.360
is tied up to it.
link |
02:33:35.440
So it becomes much more emotional, much more personal.
link |
02:33:37.680
It's no longer purely an exploration of ideas.
link |
02:33:41.640
It's really almost like a threat on your property.
link |
02:33:44.920
It's a personal threat.
link |
02:33:45.920
It makes it very difficult to explore those ideas.
link |
02:33:47.960
So I understand it, but it makes it very difficult for somebody like me to just walk in and be
link |
02:33:54.280
curious.
link |
02:33:55.640
So how do I proceed in this difficult world in exploring this landscape and not give a
link |
02:34:03.960
platform to ideas that may harm others?
link |
02:34:10.840
I guess first I'd like to commend your forthrightness about this, because I don't think many people
link |
02:34:17.280
try to walk that line necessarily.
link |
02:34:19.440
People, again, kind of the territorial imperative, they'll put whoever on, they'll help expand
link |
02:34:24.840
their reach.
link |
02:34:25.840
Oh yeah, that's right.
link |
02:34:26.840
Or say whatever needs to be said to expand their reach.
link |
02:34:29.680
So I think you're coming from a good place, I'll say that.
link |
02:34:33.920
There's a great piece written on the topic of scammers and scamming.
link |
02:34:38.680
I think it was by Goldstein, he wrote a piece called Everyone's a Scammer.
link |
02:34:42.760
And it's sort of back to this general human proclivity to try and get something for nothing
link |
02:34:47.520
always.
link |
02:34:48.520
But again, it can be positive, it can be innovative, or it can be negative, it can be trying to
link |
02:34:53.720
steal from people.
link |
02:34:58.160
That might be, I think that's a useful piece just to kind of see the crypto world through
link |
02:35:02.800
that lens, and that's how bit corners are thinking all the time.
link |
02:35:06.360
They are by nature adversarial thinkers, so they're trying to minimize the need for trust
link |
02:35:11.920
in any situation and maximize verification.
link |
02:35:17.160
As far as sifting through the ideas, I guess this is back where the cultural immune system
link |
02:35:26.240
has some utility.
link |
02:35:28.640
Because there were times when I thought this particular crypto asset, Auger was one I was
link |
02:35:34.240
really into, that it could facilitate prediction markets, prediction markets could make markets
link |
02:35:39.760
more efficient, et cetera, et cetera.
link |
02:35:41.920
But when that investment thesis basically met the cultural filter or immune system,
link |
02:35:49.680
it forced me to reevaluate my position, forced me to really look into it more deeply.
link |
02:35:54.600
And through that exploration, I realized that it would need to be built on Bitcoin to work,
link |
02:35:59.480
basically.
link |
02:36:00.480
But it really comes down to you doing your homework, but we can't all deeply evaluate
link |
02:36:05.920
every idea out there.
link |
02:36:08.280
One of the things I struggle with, Alex Jones, for example, had dinner with him, I could
link |
02:36:16.760
tell that would be a very fun conversation.
link |
02:36:19.360
But then I also understand that there's consequences to that conversation that should be explored
link |
02:36:29.240
with care.
link |
02:36:31.080
And so you need to take on the responsibility of being a chef or the puffer fish and all
link |
02:36:36.000
those kinds of things.
link |
02:36:37.760
That said, just like you said, it's very difficult to know this ahead of time.
link |
02:36:43.720
And I will probably make mistakes.
link |
02:36:46.880
And that's a shitty thing to have to live with, that I'm going to make mistakes and
link |
02:36:51.320
some of them very large.
link |
02:36:53.120
Like, yeah, I mean, I can imagine a bunch of different ways.
link |
02:36:57.640
But all we can do in this world is want to make the mistakes.
link |
02:37:01.000
We acknowledge those mistakes and learn.
link |
02:37:05.160
And also, I have to put this on the rest of us that you don't take one thing that a person
link |
02:37:13.840
did and then burn them at the stake for it, that you realize that we all make mistakes,
link |
02:37:20.800
that a particular mistake does not make the person.
link |
02:37:25.720
This applies to taking stuff out of context over hundreds of hours of talking, but it
link |
02:37:30.880
applies to actual, in context, big mistake.
link |
02:37:37.560
So what if I murdered somebody at some point?
link |
02:37:39.240
Just give me a break.
link |
02:37:40.240
No.
link |
02:37:41.240
I'm not too far, of course, but in general, we need to give each other a chance, yeah.
link |
02:37:47.720
But I'm still, I walk with a heavy heart knowing that I'll probably make a mistake,
link |
02:37:54.280
especially one that I didn't mean to.
link |
02:37:56.720
That's the one that worries me most.
link |
02:37:58.560
This is human nature.
link |
02:38:00.200
Like, hamartia to miss the mark, that's the root word of sin.
link |
02:38:05.720
We are sinful by nature.
link |
02:38:07.400
We can't help it.
link |
02:38:08.400
There's no way, again, pain is information, right?
link |
02:38:11.160
There's no way to learn other than trying, failing, learning, and then you put yourself
link |
02:38:18.400
in better formation, right, in formation to better deal with it next time.
link |
02:38:23.000
So I hope, I don't get the sense that you're actually afraid of making a mist up.
link |
02:38:30.560
Like I think you just, maybe disappointed is a better word, like you know you're going
link |
02:38:36.320
to make the mistakes.
link |
02:38:37.320
Yeah, exactly.
link |
02:38:38.320
That's a much, much better word.
link |
02:38:39.320
But we have to embrace that, yeah.
link |
02:38:41.120
That's the only way anything, it's the only way we can advance is that we're dealing
link |
02:38:44.600
with an incomprehensible reality.
link |
02:38:46.800
All we can do is throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks.
link |
02:38:50.280
And in that process, we're all inherently going to hurt ourselves and hurt others and
link |
02:38:55.000
that's where love and forgiveness come into play, right?
link |
02:38:58.040
And yeah, I think the other thing is that this culture of reducing people down to a
link |
02:39:04.040
label, right, whether it's racism or whether you're calling them a scammer or any number
link |
02:39:10.160
of terms, you're discounting their sovereignty to zero, right?
link |
02:39:14.840
You're taking a super complex human that is vast, contains multitudes, is changing over
link |
02:39:21.000
time and you're trying to put them in a bucket of a word.
link |
02:39:25.760
And that is just, I think, a cognitive fallacy, like it's not only going to hurt the person
link |
02:39:30.520
that you're, you know, winnowing down to a word, it's also going to hurt you and it's
link |
02:39:34.720
going to, in your attempt to decomplexify reality by assigning this person to a term,
link |
02:39:40.280
you're actually going to create bad outcomes for yourself because you're not going to understand
link |
02:39:43.880
that person.
link |
02:39:44.880
I do also think there's the failure of our social media technology that incentivizes
link |
02:39:50.560
that kind of reduction to a label.
link |
02:39:53.240
It's just the viral nature of that reduction.
link |
02:39:56.880
So not only do we humans naturally do that, our social media platforms make that easier
link |
02:40:04.680
and more fun, more effective to do that at scale, the mass hysteria.
link |
02:40:11.440
So I think there's actually technological ways of adding friction to that.
link |
02:40:17.840
Yeah.
link |
02:40:18.840
I wonder, I mean, I agree with you that it's social media is an amplifier to our natural,
link |
02:40:25.120
this natural way of dealing with one another.
link |
02:40:27.280
But I wonder, am I thinking it has evolved a lot on this, that there's something below
link |
02:40:32.240
the way we're treating each other too, right?
link |
02:40:35.200
We could say civilization sort of advances in the tools we make and the way we treat
link |
02:40:39.600
each other.
link |
02:40:40.600
We tend to have better tools, better quality of life and better morality, better quality
link |
02:40:45.720
of living and ways of dealing with one another.
link |
02:40:49.280
And I think that when you corrupt the money, that it really does push us the negative direction,
link |
02:40:56.720
pushes us away from, again, encouraging or magnifying scarcity artificially causes us
link |
02:41:06.040
to be more divisive.
link |
02:41:07.600
When things are more divisive, we tend to be less civilized, less nuanced, more black
link |
02:41:12.920
or white or this or that or label A or label B.
link |
02:41:18.080
So I really think, and this is a harder one to unravel, but I think if we can fix the
link |
02:41:22.960
money, which again is the base layer operating system for human moral action in the world,
link |
02:41:30.320
that it has downstream effects.
link |
02:41:32.680
So we'd actually maybe start to treat each other a little better on social media, despite
link |
02:41:37.360
the fact that it enables this faster communication.
link |
02:41:41.280
That's interesting.
link |
02:41:42.280
So perhaps fixing social media as I've been thinking about is treating the symptom, not
link |
02:41:48.560
the cause.
link |
02:41:49.560
Yeah.
link |
02:41:50.560
So as the Bitcoin rabbit hole in a nutshell, as they say, fix the money, fix the world,
link |
02:41:55.000
you keep tracing these different social malayses or technological difficulties, lack of innovation.
link |
02:42:04.240
Weinstein's entire portal podcast, something went wrong in the early 70s.
link |
02:42:07.920
We went off the gold standard in 1971.
link |
02:42:11.360
And there's a great website, WTFHap in 1971.com, goes through this whole gamut of socioeconomic
link |
02:42:17.920
data that's completely gone askew since the early 70s.
link |
02:42:22.640
Yeah.
link |
02:42:23.640
You had this whole video.
link |
02:42:24.640
What do you think about Eric Weinstein and Bitcoin and the gold standard?
link |
02:42:31.760
Does he, I actually haven't heard him talk about his thesis about the 70s in connection
link |
02:42:38.000
to the going off of the gold standard.
link |
02:42:41.520
Yeah.
link |
02:42:42.520
What are your thoughts there?
link |
02:42:43.520
What are your thoughts about his general relationship with the Bitcoin idea and the community?
link |
02:42:49.640
Yeah.
link |
02:42:50.640
The first exposure I had to Eric was his, I think it was his first episode with Peter
link |
02:42:54.440
Teal.
link |
02:42:55.440
And they're going through that thesis that there's been this general institutional rot
link |
02:43:00.880
and suppression of innovation since the early 70s, and he's trying to identify what it is.
link |
02:43:05.840
I don't think they ever pended on the money on going off the gold standard.
link |
02:43:11.480
But in recent interactions with Eric, I've interacted with him on Clubhouse.
link |
02:43:17.600
We recently released an episode of the show I did with Chris Espley, and it was titled
link |
02:43:22.960
Dear Eric Weinstein.
link |
02:43:24.360
So we're going through his worldview that he's expressed in the portal and tying it
link |
02:43:28.440
back to the money in different ways.
link |
02:43:31.920
And he's been, he's engaged.
link |
02:43:33.560
Eric retweeted the show, we exchanged some messages.
link |
02:43:36.760
He's been very open minded.
link |
02:43:38.440
He's asked some really good questions.
link |
02:43:40.520
So I get the sense that he's approaching this very wholeheartedly.
link |
02:43:45.960
He does bring with him his existing worldview and his existing theory, the one that really
link |
02:43:50.800
blew up was gauge theory.
link |
02:43:52.160
They got really popular.
link |
02:43:53.160
I don't know a lot about gauge theory.
link |
02:43:55.200
Actually, message Eric and said, I want to learn more, genuinely, because he seems to
link |
02:44:00.600
be serious that that needs to be considered in the sphere of money.
link |
02:44:04.040
And so I want to learn more about it.
link |
02:44:06.880
But I think overall, it's great.
link |
02:44:08.240
It's great to see an intellectual heavyweight of his caliber gravitating towards Bitcoin.
link |
02:44:14.240
Yeah.
link |
02:44:15.560
He has some gauge theoretic conceptions about the world broadly, but also about economics,
link |
02:44:23.960
which ultimately boils down to just a set of mathematics, which allows you to more effectively
link |
02:44:29.640
reason about the world.
link |
02:44:30.800
And he has a certain set of views there.
link |
02:44:33.840
So it's fascinating to see him grapple with it.
link |
02:44:37.080
I think he's also kind of actually kind of like all of us grappling with the idea of what
link |
02:44:43.800
is Bitcoin in this world?
link |
02:44:45.880
It's a very young technology and it's unclear exactly how the ideas of the past fit with
link |
02:44:54.440
it and integrate, how the two integrate together.
link |
02:44:57.520
And so it's interesting to explore, not just Bitcoin, the particular.
link |
02:45:01.480
So for me, what I've always saw Bitcoin as from the beginning, from a narrow worldview
link |
02:45:11.000
is computer science, which is where I come from.
link |
02:45:14.160
And so I wasn't almost aware in the social, political, financial aspects of Bitcoin.
link |
02:45:21.720
But now I see that there's not just power, but there's fascinating ideas to explore on
link |
02:45:29.360
that side of things.
link |
02:45:30.360
Not just the computer science, not just the technical details, but the political, the
link |
02:45:35.800
socioeconomic, the philosophical.
link |
02:45:39.720
That's where I find all the fascination in the world, frankly.
link |
02:45:44.280
I would, one other thing about Weinstein and Intellectuals more generally that are skeptical
link |
02:45:51.000
of Bitcoin, I would challenge them to read the book, Human Action, written by Mises.
link |
02:45:57.440
I think in 1949, he published the English version, it's essentially the Bible of Austrian
link |
02:46:03.880
economics.
link |
02:46:04.880
And I think Austrian economics is a noticeable gap in most modern intellectuals worldviews
link |
02:46:13.760
that is not taught in school.
link |
02:46:15.120
I mean, I have a master's degree in accounting and finance, I studied a lot of economics
link |
02:46:18.520
in school.
link |
02:46:19.520
There's not one peep of Austrian icon.
link |
02:46:21.120
Oh yeah.
link |
02:46:22.120
I really love talking about all the degrees he has.
link |
02:46:26.440
I was a CPA.
link |
02:46:30.360
But that curriculum that we get in college is noticeably deficient in Austrian economics.
link |
02:46:38.760
And I think there's a reason why.
link |
02:46:40.600
It's heavily government influenced.
link |
02:46:44.160
Again, master's degree in accounting, they never taught me about what money is or where
link |
02:46:48.840
money comes from.
link |
02:46:50.080
All you learn is that the central bank issues money and the central bank takes money away.
link |
02:46:56.080
So it's conceived of in the textbooks quite literally as God, an entity that suffers no
link |
02:47:02.080
opportunity cost, that basically is the foundation of the entire Keynesian worldview that you're
link |
02:47:09.320
taught in economics.
link |
02:47:11.160
And Austrian economics is the opposite end of the spectrum of that.
link |
02:47:16.360
It's actually the culmination, which economics is the youngest science in the world, by the
link |
02:47:21.080
way.
link |
02:47:22.080
It's kind of the front, it's the frontiers of science in many ways, like to actually,
link |
02:47:28.320
when I say praxeology, many people have never even heard of that.
link |
02:47:31.380
But it's something, it's an a priori study equivalent to something like mathematics,
link |
02:47:37.400
that you're building things from first principles to reason about economic reality.
link |
02:47:42.760
And I think that book, it's a very difficult book written by Mises, 1200 pages, translated
link |
02:47:49.160
from German.
link |
02:47:50.160
He wields English, is fascinating and terrifying all at the same time.
link |
02:47:54.120
It'll probably take you six months to read it, if you read it daily, seriously, like
link |
02:47:58.240
it's a beast of a book.
link |
02:48:00.640
But that will plug the gap, I think in most, any intellectual that's skeptical about Bitcoin,
link |
02:48:06.080
I think that will plug the gap that's necessary for you to see it in a new light.
link |
02:48:09.880
Well, I'll take that as a challenge.
link |
02:48:12.680
Now that we took a little bit of a break, it's some good Texas brisket.
link |
02:48:16.000
Thank you for that, by the way.
link |
02:48:17.000
I'm over.
link |
02:48:18.000
Quite welcome.
link |
02:48:19.000
Let me ask the ridiculous question.
link |
02:48:21.840
At the core of the idea of Bitcoin is this guy or this entity named Satoshi Nakamoto.
link |
02:48:28.480
So the ridiculous question is, who is Satoshi Nakamoto?
link |
02:48:32.320
And first of all, is it you?
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02:48:35.160
It's not me.
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02:48:37.360
I wish.
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02:48:38.360
And is this an interesting question, or is it just something about our human nature that
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02:48:43.480
wants to, that always tends towards mystery?
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02:48:47.280
Well, as we've touched on a bit today, mythology, in my opinion, is something that is intrinsic
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02:48:56.040
to how we see the world in a lot of ways.
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02:48:58.400
It's kind of the structure by which we build these useful fictions.
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02:49:05.560
And so in that way, you could just say that Satoshi is the godhead of Bitcoin, effectively.
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02:49:12.280
And I think a compelling argument could be made that his disappearance is what really
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02:49:17.020
solidifies Bitcoin's decentralization.
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02:49:20.480
Because if there were one individual to personally vilify or denigrate or attack to disparage
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02:49:30.240
or question the motives of, if he's out on the Hollywood Hills partying, everyone knows
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02:49:38.120
he's got a million Bitcoin.
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02:49:40.560
It would just kind of tarnish the entire project a lot of way.
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02:49:44.240
But the fact that on that theme, something for nothing, this guy actually gave humanity
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02:49:49.660
something for nothing.
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02:49:51.560
And it appears that he didn't profit in any way.
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02:49:57.000
He, she, or they actually heard recently that he identified as a he and some of his communications.
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02:50:03.160
So it sounds like it is a he.
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02:50:05.480
See, like his communications being like studied like almost like exactly as if he is a religious
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02:50:13.760
that's right.
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02:50:15.640
Like a prophet.
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02:50:16.640
Yeah.
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02:50:17.640
I mean, it's fascinating to imagine that he's still alive and living in this world.
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02:50:27.280
And it's even more fascinating to imagine that he's perhaps participating in the Bitcoin
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02:50:31.320
community because I mean, that's, that takes a special human being to how to principle
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02:50:37.720
do that, to do, to, to remain anonymous.
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02:50:41.520
That's very much the George Washington.
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02:50:43.160
Yeah.
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02:50:44.160
I always wonder like how many people are like that?
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02:50:46.600
There's a cliche that like absolute power corrupts, absolutely like power corrupts,
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02:50:51.640
but it seems like the progress of humanity depends on the people whom power doesn't corrupt.
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02:50:58.520
And it's enough to have just a small selection of those.
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02:51:04.600
And even if most of us are too weak, we give in to power, if given the chance, all it takes
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02:51:12.680
is a few.
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02:51:13.680
That's, I've never thought of it like that, but Marcus Aurelius immediately came to mind.
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02:51:18.400
You know, the guy that he had the keys to the kingdom and he apparently adhered to the
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02:51:25.320
historic virtues until the end.
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02:51:28.680
But yeah, I agree with Satoshi, the other thing that's interesting is he would be by
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02:51:34.880
far the most wealthy person in the world on a liquid asset basis, because he has a million
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02:51:41.360
Bitcoin, which is 60 billion liquid net worth at current prices.
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02:51:47.960
So if he is still alive and just operating in the world, he is daily and moment to moment
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02:51:53.920
resisting massive incentives to go and just be the richest guy in the world.
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02:52:01.280
He's the ultimate hodler.
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02:52:02.920
Yeah.
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02:52:03.920
Yeah.
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02:52:04.920
I mean, so it's, I mean, it's turning down not just financial success, but also fame.
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02:52:11.920
I mean, fame is another drug.
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02:52:14.280
It's kind of power, but it's in itself is also a drug, especially in this modern society
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02:52:19.320
in this attention.
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02:52:20.600
And he would have both.
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02:52:21.600
He would have both.
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02:52:23.000
It's fun to imagine who it could be.
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02:52:25.960
It's fascinating if it's somebody like you or somebody like Elon or somebody like that.
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02:52:30.680
That's fascinating to think about.
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02:52:31.680
Yeah.
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02:52:32.680
I think Elon would be hilarious if he came out and he was Satoshi and be like, Hey guys,
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02:52:37.280
I know I'm already the richest guy in the world, but I'm going to go ahead and double
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02:52:40.560
my lead here.
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02:52:42.560
What do you make of Elon Musk investing with Tesla investing in Bitcoin and maybe broaden
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02:52:49.680
that out in some of these other, you know, big billionaires, but also people tied to
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02:52:57.160
major companies investing in Bitcoin.
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02:52:59.400
Yeah.
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02:53:00.400
I think Michael Saylor really led the charge on that.
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02:53:04.160
He's the CEO of MicroStrategy that I think they've acquired upwards of $2 billion in
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02:53:10.280
Bitcoin now.
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02:53:11.280
Started acquiring August, maybe of 2020.
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02:53:16.080
And he's, you know, personally bought a lot of it.
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02:53:19.160
He bought a lot as a treasury reserve asset for his company, MicroStrategy.
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02:53:24.280
Then they leveraged up on a convertible note and bought more.
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02:53:28.400
So he's really gone, really leading the charge in this Bitcoin institutional adoption.
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02:53:36.240
Your conversation with him is a really interesting one, your series of, I mean, series of episodes
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02:53:41.240
I suppose, but it's only a couple of conversations, I guess.
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02:53:44.400
Yeah.
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02:53:45.400
He recorded twice, five and a half hours each, so it's about 11 hours of content.
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02:53:50.000
And yeah, thank you.
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02:53:51.000
It's, a lot of people have said that it's the best first principle thing they've ever
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02:53:56.560
seen on Bitcoin, which I take no credit for that at all.
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02:53:59.280
I mean, I just sat down with a guy and unleashed him.
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02:54:03.120
He's just a beast.
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02:54:04.120
Yeah.
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02:54:05.120
But it's fascinating that his long term vision with it, I mean, I'm not sure I'm all first
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02:54:14.360
softly bought in, but if he's right, if this set of ideas are as powerful as he describes
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02:54:23.120
as he described that this would change the world, which as you say, it's funny that a
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02:54:28.280
company like MicroStrategy might be the company that has the biggest macro effect on our economy
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02:54:38.920
and our world.
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02:54:40.080
Yeah.
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02:54:41.080
And the conversation reshaped my worldview a lot too, because he framed money as energy,
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02:54:48.200
which I had often thought of money as time and it explored those connections a lot in
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02:54:53.040
my writing, but looking at it as energy and then his supposition that the purpose of life
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02:55:00.480
is to basically channel energy across space and time.
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02:55:03.240
So we're just trying to figure out how to channel more energy across space and time
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02:55:07.080
toward the satisfaction of aims.
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02:55:10.200
And his definition, his answer to that question, what is money?
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02:55:14.000
Money is the highest form of energy a human being can channel.
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02:55:17.240
So it's a claim to all other forms of energy we can manifest in the world.
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02:55:20.880
And that just completely reshaped how I see it, brought in this whole other side to my
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02:55:28.320
intellectual explorations of money.
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02:55:30.280
Can you elaborate on that a little bit?
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02:55:32.240
So I understand money is time, which in itself is a really powerful idea, but money is energy,
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02:55:38.560
channeling energy.
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02:55:39.560
Okay.
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02:55:40.560
Can you break that apart?
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02:55:41.560
Yeah.
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02:55:42.560
So I guess I definitely have to check out the whole series to really get his perspective,
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02:55:47.000
but I'll do my best to condense it.
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02:55:51.560
Life itself, all forms of life are, you know, they're dependent on energy, right?
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02:55:56.680
Energy fuels everything fuels life and action and motion and all of that.
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02:56:02.400
And we could say that maybe like a plant is harnessing solar energy and then reallocating
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02:56:10.440
that into growth.
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02:56:11.920
So it's aim is to grow towards the sun, right?
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02:56:15.240
So it's allocating energy towards its goal of harnessing more solar energy kind of thing.
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02:56:22.600
And humans too have evolved to figure out how to harness energy in different ways to
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02:56:33.000
satisfy higher and more complicated aims.
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02:56:35.280
So the original energy network that he referenced was fire, right?
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02:56:41.200
We actually learned to wield fire as a tool in and of itself.
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02:56:45.800
So not only are we learning to channel energy, but we actually learned how to isolate energy
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02:56:51.240
as a tool in and of itself.
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02:56:53.880
So we went into that, how harnessing fire had changed human beings.
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02:57:00.120
Actually, this is one of the earliest examples too of a co evolution between tool and our
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02:57:06.960
biology because when we developed fire, we developed cooking and cooking is you can kind
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02:57:12.640
of think of it as pre digestion in a way or liberating these macro nutrients or making
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02:57:16.560
things that otherwise would not be digestible, edible.
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02:57:22.000
And it increases the efficiency by which we extract nutrients from food.
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02:57:26.200
That's what cooking does.
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02:57:27.560
So when we figured out cooking, we free, we liberated all these digestive resources that
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02:57:33.640
were reallocated towards higher cognitive development.
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02:57:36.680
So there's this evolutionary path between figuring out fire and us becoming smarter,
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02:57:43.200
which was interesting.
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02:57:46.000
Some other early examples he gave, he went into were missiles and hydraulics.
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02:57:51.800
So missiles being, we learned to hunt at a distance, you know, we can't bring down a
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02:57:58.160
woolly mammoth maybe with spears and up close and personal force, but we could with spears
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02:58:05.560
and javelins and slings and whatnot.
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02:58:07.960
And then he went into how we've used water to channel hydraulic energy so we can basically
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02:58:13.800
overcome gravity, we can move, you know, there's theories that the pyramids were constructed
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02:58:21.000
using the blocks were moved using hydraulic energy or using water.
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02:58:25.880
Clearly we use like cargo ships and whatnot to move things much more efficiently across
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02:58:29.800
water than we could the land.
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02:58:32.520
So this, his whole view is how we keep figuring out better ways and more efficient ways to
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02:58:38.360
harness energy and channel it.
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02:58:40.640
And in that perspective, money has always represented a claim on all other forms of
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02:58:48.440
energy.
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02:58:49.440
So whatever energy couldn't be channeled towards something useful in the economy historically
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02:58:54.760
would go into gold mining.
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02:58:56.320
So gold became this residual, this economic, this token of the excess energy created by
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02:59:04.120
the market economy.
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02:59:05.640
And then you could take that token of energy and use it to redeem for any other form of
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02:59:10.200
energy or any of the products of energy itself.
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02:59:13.720
So it's, I guess it's my best approximation of it.
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02:59:18.280
And it just really shattered my worldview again, because I'd always thought about it as time
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02:59:23.680
like we spend time sacrificing to obtain money that we then redeem for commencement sacrifices
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02:59:28.560
from others, but I'd never considered it purely as energy.
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02:59:32.480
And then it also ties back into gold where there was an energy expenditure necessary
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02:59:38.840
to obtain gold.
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02:59:40.360
So there's a proof of work associated with obtaining gold that protected its market
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02:59:44.680
value.
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02:59:45.680
Right?
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02:59:46.680
So you had to expend, again, if market value of gold is 2000 an ounce, you had to expend
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02:59:50.920
1900 an ounce mining.
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02:59:53.280
So it kept producers honest in a way.
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02:59:56.680
So do you think something like proof of stake that's more about reputation than actual exertion,
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03:00:07.840
like energy can work?
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03:00:10.200
No.
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03:00:11.200
I think proof of stake is inherently centralizing.
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03:00:13.800
It's like the old Matthew principle from those who have to those who have more will
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03:00:21.200
be given from those who have not everything will be taken.
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03:00:24.280
That's what proof of stake is.
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03:00:26.520
You need proof of work to embody skin in the game in the marketplace such that contributions
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03:00:33.520
are commensurate with consideration received.
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03:00:36.600
That's how systems work.
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03:00:39.760
What's the idea why proof of work might incentivize decentralization?
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03:00:49.680
Do you worry that as Bitcoin becomes more powerful, it may become, again, more centralized?
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03:00:56.920
Well, the decentralization of Bitcoin is largely driven by the nodes, actually, which
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03:01:04.240
aren't actually mining.
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03:01:05.320
They're just choosing which rule set to implement.
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03:01:10.800
And then the mining network is actually enforcing that rule set.
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03:01:14.720
So I think the mining network is inherently decentralized in that really anyone with access
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03:01:23.280
to cheap energy can become a miner.
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03:01:25.600
You can freely enter or exit the market or the network at any time.
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03:01:31.000
But maintaining the block size at a manageable level is what's key to maintaining node decentralization.
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03:01:38.120
This is an interesting question.
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03:01:40.640
Who do you think has more power, the miners or the nodes?
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03:01:44.400
Because the nodes carry the idea of the protocol, the specifics.
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03:01:52.640
So in some sense, they have more power if Bitcoin is an idea.
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03:01:57.480
They're kind of mutually indispensable, though, because you can't have, there's no security
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03:02:04.680
without the miners.
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03:02:06.080
So without the miners, Bitcoin is just an idea.
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03:02:08.600
And the idea of Bitcoin has maybe existed even before Bitcoin, right?
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03:02:13.400
Just sound money.
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03:02:14.400
We just say sound money is an idea.
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03:02:16.960
But there was no way to root that into thermodynamic reality without Satoshi figuring out not just
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03:02:24.480
proof of work, it's the entire composite of the difficulty adjustment, proof of work,
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03:02:31.520
one way hashing, et cetera.
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03:02:32.920
So I don't know, that's hard to say, hard to disentangle the two.
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03:02:37.520
You've talked about money as morality, too.
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03:02:41.480
How do you think about moral and immoral action in the context of money?
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03:02:47.480
There's this great, great quote by Rothbard, who's a famous Austrian economist.
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03:02:53.040
And he says, quote, to be moral, an act must be free, unquote.
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03:03:01.240
And I think morality, it changes over time, and it has its roots in biology.
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03:03:15.800
Jordan Peterson makes the point that even animals have their own sort of pseudo morality,
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03:03:21.280
or with wolf packs, for instance, if there's a dispute between the alpha males, or I guess
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03:03:27.280
between an alpha male and an incumbent, the two males will have a fight, basically.
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03:03:35.600
And then when one is decided that one has won, the loser will basically roll over and
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03:03:40.880
give up his neck to the alpha male.
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03:03:45.280
And they do this instead of fighting to the death, because in a wolf pack, they need every
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03:03:50.040
wolf so they can go out and bring down.
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03:03:52.800
You never know when you're going to need the 20th wolf to bring down the big buffalo
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03:03:55.880
the next day or whatever.
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03:03:57.080
So they've developed this less than fight to the death social morality to optimize their
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03:04:03.800
effectiveness as a wolf pack.
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03:04:07.960
And similarly for humans, our morality sort of emerges through competition and play even.
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03:04:16.240
There are these implicit rules that come into place based on how we're organizing ourselves
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03:04:21.960
over time.
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03:04:24.360
And so with money, it's interesting because most tools we would consider to be amoral,
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03:04:34.560
as in a hammer can be used to build a house, which could be seen to be good, like a good
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03:04:39.880
constructive purpose, or it could be used to bash someone's skull, which could be something
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03:04:43.680
evil and that the tool itself is amoral, doesn't have any independent morality of its own.
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03:04:51.640
All of the morality is associated with the wielder of the tool.
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03:04:55.520
So what's the quote like any tool can be a weapon if you hold it right sort of thing.
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03:05:01.600
But money's maybe a little bit different in that when you monopolize money, it's only
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03:05:12.400
useful as a tool for one thing.
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03:05:15.440
And that's for allocating wealth away from some and to others.
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03:05:19.600
So it is the only utility of monopolized money is theft.
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03:05:24.680
There's no other, you know, there's a lot of propaganda out there that will say, oh,
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03:05:29.000
we need to print money to get out of this disaster or to give to the poor, whatever this, whatever
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03:05:36.840
moralistically camouflaged political aim is being discussed at the base layer of monopolized
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03:05:44.040
money is that it's only useful for taking from someone giving to others.
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03:05:48.000
So another way to think about this is that money is a paper claim on the savings of society.
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03:05:55.320
So it is just a ticket for redeeming savings, which could be time, could be capital, could
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03:06:00.960
be knowledge from any market actor in the world.
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03:06:04.740
So it's kind of a list of who owns what, if you will, it's a proxy list.
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03:06:08.200
If there's one group that can amend that list and others cannot, then they're basically
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03:06:14.240
able and incentive to modify that list to their own benefit.
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03:06:20.520
And that's effectively what a central bank is doing.
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03:06:23.220
So a central bank is determining how much money to create.
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03:06:27.240
They're also determining who gets to receive that money first.
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03:06:30.640
And the first recipients of that money are going to be the beneficiaries in an inflationary
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03:06:36.280
regime.
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03:06:37.440
So those that receive the money last are the ones being robbed.
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03:06:40.760
Those that receive the money first are the ones that are receiving the stolen proceeds,
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03:06:46.720
let's say.
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03:06:48.800
And this has a really corrosive effect on social morality because if we consider that
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03:07:00.600
people's time horizon, which they also call the time preference, the more short term thinking
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03:07:06.920
you are, the more likely you are to engage in selfish behavior.
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03:07:12.880
If you know that it's all over tomorrow, you've been working your whole life to develop this
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03:07:20.520
business or create this reputation or whatever your thing is, but you just are given the
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03:07:24.140
foreknowledge that tomorrow it's all going to end, you're much more likely to go out
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03:07:28.320
and just maybe get drunk and party that night because there's no more repercussions.
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03:07:34.400
Whereas if you know that you're going to live for a very long time, you're much more likely
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03:07:40.600
to plan for the future.
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03:07:44.000
And money is very...
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03:07:46.400
So we would just say that your time horizon is closely related to your morality, the longer
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03:07:51.200
term thinking you are, the more moral you would tend to behave, the more you would care
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03:07:54.600
about long term relationship building versus going out and getting wasted.
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03:07:59.200
And money too impinges very closely on our time preference and time preference is the
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03:08:06.040
Austrian term.
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03:08:07.040
So low time preference means you're long term oriented, high time preference means you're
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03:08:11.640
short term oriented, which can be a little trippy for some people because it sounds backwards.
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03:08:18.960
If your money constantly loses value, you are incentivized to become more short term oriented.
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03:08:27.120
You are handicapped in your ability to plan for the future because your money, which is
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03:08:34.960
intended to be...
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03:08:35.960
Here's another definition of money as an insurance policy against uncertainty.
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03:08:39.880
So no matter what problems you encounter in the world, this money will best help you deal
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03:08:44.040
with those problems.
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03:08:46.560
And that insurance policy against uncertainty is injected with uncertainty, it's polluted
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03:08:51.440
with the uncertainty of inflation.
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03:08:53.600
Your time horizon shrinks, your ability to plan long term shrinks.
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03:08:58.280
And this impinges on social morality.
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03:09:00.240
So there's a great book on this called Honest Money by Gary North.
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03:09:05.320
And in that book, he gives the parable of the winemaker.
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03:09:09.840
The winemaker, if we just imagine the hypothetical winemaker operating a business and essentially
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03:09:16.200
a banked economy.
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03:09:18.240
And let's say his central bank just doubled the money supply to quote unquote save the
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03:09:21.840
economy, say an increase in money supply from $1 to $2 trillion.
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03:09:27.200
This winemaker that's accustomed to selling wine at $20 a bottle is now faced with basically
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03:09:31.680
three choices.
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03:09:36.760
And an important point here too, before we get into his three choices, are what prices
link |
03:09:40.680
are themselves.
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03:09:41.960
Prices are the most visible aspect of any service.
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03:09:46.360
So when you increase prices, you are incentivizing your customers to look elsewhere.
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03:09:51.480
They're going to look at your competition.
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03:09:53.660
When you decrease prices, you're incentivizing market actors to look closer at your product.
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03:09:59.320
You're delivering a solution at a lower price.
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03:10:02.280
So this winemaker that's accustomed to selling his wine at a $20 price point, all of a sudden
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03:10:07.320
because of his central bank has tripled the money supply, he has three choices.
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03:10:12.280
He can either keep selling his bottle at $20 and all of his inputs will increase due to
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03:10:18.400
inflation by 50%.
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03:10:21.240
So he will lose 50% of his profit margin as a result.
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03:10:26.440
So we can choose to eat that loss.
link |
03:10:28.400
He can choose to double the selling price of his bottle of wine from $20 to $40 because
link |
03:10:33.720
all of the price of his inputs doubled, so then he would maintain his profit margin.
link |
03:10:39.600
Or the third one is that he could choose to water down his wine or use inferior ingredients.
link |
03:10:47.440
So he could use cheaper inputs and maintain the output at the same price.
link |
03:10:53.800
So he could basically start selling his customers an inferior product for the same price to
link |
03:10:58.120
preserve his profit margin.
link |
03:11:00.680
Now again, case number one, it's not very palatable.
link |
03:11:04.120
He doesn't want to eat the economic loss.
link |
03:11:06.120
Case number two, it's not very good either because he's incentivizing all of his customers
link |
03:11:10.560
to go shop other winemakers if he doubles his price.
link |
03:11:14.300
So human nature being what it is, trying to get something for nothing, inflation actually
link |
03:11:19.520
seeps into other industries by encouraging producers into option three, which is to deceive
link |
03:11:26.080
your customer in the short run.
link |
03:11:28.160
And again, this would be done initially at the margins.
link |
03:11:31.120
Maybe it's just a few drops of water, maybe it's just some cheaper grapes.
link |
03:11:35.440
But over time, this inflation is actually inducing producers to weigh their financial
link |
03:11:44.480
well being against their moral integrity.
link |
03:11:47.400
So it's forcing them into this dilemma that would not exist in a free market economy.
link |
03:11:53.560
And as they charge more money for wine that is inferior, the buyers of that wine also
link |
03:12:01.200
living in a central bank economy are also getting scammed by not only the inflation
link |
03:12:05.120
but also the wine.
link |
03:12:06.520
So it becomes this kind of corrosive, contagious moral effect that propagates throughout an
link |
03:12:14.480
economy.
link |
03:12:15.480
And that's why I've argued in a lot of my writing that inflation is this infectious moral cancer
link |
03:12:22.400
on the world.
link |
03:12:24.040
I think it is tied back to a lot of the social strangeness we've seen in modern times where
link |
03:12:34.240
there seems to be a lot of fake people and a lot of fake businesses and a lot of scams,
link |
03:12:38.040
all of these things.
link |
03:12:39.040
I think it really is rooted in the money.
link |
03:12:41.280
And Bitcoin as the first money in history that has a 0% terminal inflation rate or said
link |
03:12:47.760
differently, zero unexpected inflation.
link |
03:12:50.560
There's no theft integrated into Bitcoin.
link |
03:12:54.360
You can only earn it through work or sacrificing resources to obtain it.
link |
03:12:59.800
It is the antidote to this moral cancer that inflation riddles our society with.
link |
03:13:06.200
Again, you're blowing my mind a little bit to think about the ripple effects of inflation,
link |
03:13:12.080
the way it seeps through with our interactions.
link |
03:13:15.160
So at the very, the early ripples is the effect that has on the products, on the dilution
link |
03:13:21.600
of the wine.
link |
03:13:23.160
But also you might have ripple effects on the character, on the behavior of people.
link |
03:13:30.320
That's interesting, artificial creation of scarcity, creating, having effects on society
link |
03:13:37.760
at the social, like the social fabric.
link |
03:13:39.800
And I guess you're arguing the morality.
link |
03:13:44.040
It's perverting free market dynamics, which again, we said free markets generate pragmatic
link |
03:13:48.400
truth.
link |
03:13:49.400
So inflation distorts price signals, which means it confuses capital allocation.
link |
03:13:55.000
So we're trying to solve problems, but all of a sudden, we can't tell if this price increases
link |
03:13:59.080
a matter of true supply and demand change or a matter of policy change.
link |
03:14:03.640
So it clouds our economic perceptions.
link |
03:14:07.280
It suppresses innovation because now you've exacerbated the boom and bust business cycle.
link |
03:14:12.680
People are going to overborrow and go into projects that they can't profitably sustain.
link |
03:14:16.880
So then there will be a huge collapse.
link |
03:14:18.400
So that actually breaks the market's function of generating innovation.
link |
03:14:24.160
And then yeah, I would argue too that it pollutes our pursuit of virtue, let's say.
link |
03:14:30.000
Maybe it's pushing back, but I don't think so.
link |
03:14:33.400
It's not as clear to me, perhaps because I haven't thought about it deeply, that money
link |
03:14:37.360
is core to life and human interaction.
link |
03:14:43.640
Because there might be other forces, other fraudulent forces, other things in human nature
link |
03:14:48.760
that are creating these effects as well.
link |
03:14:51.240
So it's clear, I think you're articulating really well that there's these negative effects
link |
03:14:54.440
from inflation.
link |
03:14:56.120
I wonder if there's other undiscovered, not undiscovered, but ones we're not making explicit
link |
03:15:01.920
now forces that are creating all the things we're seeing now, like you said, cancer culture
link |
03:15:09.840
and all those things.
link |
03:15:11.640
But also the negative effects on the quality of products, on the excellence of the creativity
link |
03:15:19.520
and the innovation, all those kinds of things.
link |
03:15:21.160
I wonder if there's other factors.
link |
03:15:23.560
It's kind of, listen, it's compelling to think money is at the core of it all.
link |
03:15:27.920
Like if you fix, I forgot what the phrase was.
link |
03:15:30.560
Fix the money, fix the world.
link |
03:15:31.920
Yeah, fix the money, fix the world.
link |
03:15:35.000
Again, things that sound good I'm skeptical of by nature.
link |
03:15:40.640
So I wonder if there's other things that are beyond money that are somehow deeply integrated
link |
03:15:46.080
into our human nature.
link |
03:15:47.520
Another one related to money is social cohesion itself.
link |
03:15:51.720
So very simple anecdote for this was the more you increase the inflation rate, social cohesion
link |
03:16:00.280
is inversely proportionate to that.
link |
03:16:02.200
So the extreme example would be hyperinflation, where the money is produced in such excess
link |
03:16:07.200
that it loses all meaning and relevance.
link |
03:16:09.880
So today in Venezuela, there is cash clogging the gutters, clogging the streets, clogging
link |
03:16:15.600
the sewer system, because the cash has lost all relevance.
link |
03:16:21.400
And so anecdotally, we would suspect that, okay, if there's a inverse relationship between
link |
03:16:27.280
inflation and social cohesion, if we could then intake inflation to zero, couldn't we
link |
03:16:32.920
theoretically increase social cohesion to its maximum?
link |
03:16:38.680
So another way to say that is inflation is a decivilizing force, whereas natural price
link |
03:16:45.080
deflation, which would occur in a hard money economy where there's either a fixed supply
link |
03:16:49.720
of Bitcoin or a relatively scarce supply of gold, for instance, that lays claim to an
link |
03:16:58.200
increasing capital stock of goods and services.
link |
03:17:02.240
Prices would naturally decline every year as we became smarter.
link |
03:17:06.200
So the market price becomes a reflection of our collective knowledge.
link |
03:17:09.920
So by letting prices decline naturally over time, we can actually induce civilization.
link |
03:17:16.200
But by trying to force prices higher all the time via the central bank, we're creating
link |
03:17:20.040
the opposite effect.
link |
03:17:21.920
So we talked a little bit about the Soviet Union, and I happened to have lived through
link |
03:17:25.720
the collapse of the Soviet Union.
link |
03:17:28.840
And so what are the factors, the causes in your mind to why the Soviet Union collapsed?
link |
03:17:38.400
So definitely a multivariate situation, I think there's a lot of factors.
link |
03:17:47.320
One that jumped out to me recently, again, from the documentary that I didn't note before,
link |
03:17:51.480
was that at one point Stalin eliminated, I think, 75% of his intelligence force, which
link |
03:18:00.120
I think when you're competing with another nation state, intelligence and covert operations
link |
03:18:06.760
are very integral to your survival.
link |
03:18:08.800
I think that was definitely a shot in the foot.
link |
03:18:13.840
But at a higher level, I would say that capitalism and communism were each resource strategies
link |
03:18:23.600
of the 20th century nation state.
link |
03:18:27.880
And they seem, you know, we commonly consider them to be diametrically opposed, but there's
link |
03:18:31.600
actually a lot of commonality between the two.
link |
03:18:34.800
The difference would be that in Soviet Russia, as we alluded to earlier, they tried to completely
link |
03:18:41.880
replace price signals with this nationalistic faith and devotion.
link |
03:18:46.880
So they removed the economic nerve signal, which coordinated the allocation of capital
link |
03:18:52.800
over time.
link |
03:18:53.800
So this inhibited their ability to generate wealth.
link |
03:18:57.080
Whereas in the United States, we left most markets open to free enterprise.
link |
03:19:02.440
So we honored the integrity of price signals, and we allowed people to trade and accumulate
link |
03:19:08.920
wealth.
link |
03:19:11.800
So in every market, except the market for money, both markets maintained a central bank,
link |
03:19:17.080
as we've gotten to.
link |
03:19:18.400
So I think in a really big picture standpoint, that's why capitalism outcompetes communism
link |
03:19:27.480
is because it is able to generate more wealth than communism was, and therefore was able
link |
03:19:33.640
to put financial pressure on the USSR until it reached the point of bankruptcy, essentially.
link |
03:19:40.920
This a similar model, I would argue, is that for the same reasons we saw capitalism outcompete
link |
03:19:49.520
communism, which I think the data that I recall was that the USSR's economy was valued at
link |
03:19:56.640
close to one third of its inputs.
link |
03:19:59.720
So if you just didn't do anything inside the USSR and just sold all the raw materials
link |
03:20:04.080
that were going into it, it would have been worth three times as much as sending the materials
link |
03:20:09.160
in, running it through the efforts, and then shipping things back out.
link |
03:20:12.360
It was value destructive versus value creative.
link |
03:20:16.320
And I would argue this is because, again, the centralized computing model versus decentralized
link |
03:20:22.120
computing model, it just became more and more corrupt over time.
link |
03:20:27.960
It got to the point where I think most of the occupations in the USSR towards the end
link |
03:20:32.040
were as informants.
link |
03:20:34.200
They were working for the state.
link |
03:20:37.200
Jordan Peterson makes this point, too, that at some point it was actually illegal to be
link |
03:20:40.680
sad in Soviet Russia, because if you were sad, you were contradicting the utopian view
link |
03:20:47.280
of the state.
link |
03:20:48.960
So if you were sad, you're implying the state's not doing something wrong.
link |
03:20:52.080
But by the way, this does remind me, do you know what Jordan Peterson thinks about Bitcoin
link |
03:20:57.040
and about the future impact of Bitcoin on the society?
link |
03:21:02.800
No, I don't, actually.
link |
03:21:07.160
We're hopefully going to be talking to him soon about that.
link |
03:21:10.720
We did a book club on his book Maps of Meaning, and he engaged with us about it.
link |
03:21:16.280
So we're hoping to deliver the orange pill to Mr. Peterson.
link |
03:21:19.120
The orange pill.
link |
03:21:20.640
I think his audience is one of the most important audiences in the world to understand Bitcoin.
link |
03:21:27.280
People that are conscientious and responsible, I think they'll quickly understand Bitcoin's
link |
03:21:34.600
value proposition and help elucidate it to the world.
link |
03:21:38.160
I'm trying to remember what he said about it.
link |
03:21:41.000
Basically, I think his support of Bitcoin is grounded in the kind of people who are
link |
03:21:47.280
opposing Bitcoin.
link |
03:21:50.880
Without understanding Bitcoin, he starts to like Bitcoin because of the people who are
link |
03:21:55.440
opposing it.
link |
03:21:58.760
You start to, I mean, that's partially why I am interested in Bitcoin.
link |
03:22:03.840
It's like all the people in power and all the kind of shady, fraudulent, and nongenuine
link |
03:22:13.080
people who are dismissing Bitcoin are making me think, hmm.
link |
03:22:19.480
One of Jordan's definitions of God is, he says God is found in the truthful speech that
link |
03:22:26.800
rectifies pathological hierarchies.
link |
03:22:30.520
And I think that is a beautiful definition of what Bitcoin is doing in the world and
link |
03:22:36.760
that we have this pathological hierarchy called central banking by which the rich get richer
link |
03:22:42.320
and the poor get poorer.
link |
03:22:45.120
That is used as a mechanism for perpetual theft and funding warfare at a global scale.
link |
03:22:52.680
Like Ron Paul said, it's no coincidence that the 20th century of total war was also the
link |
03:22:57.720
century of central banking.
link |
03:23:00.880
When you have an institution of currency counterfeiting, which the central bank is, you are no longer
link |
03:23:08.680
bounded by your own balance sheet when you go to war.
link |
03:23:11.480
You don't have to just go to war on your own resources.
link |
03:23:13.520
You can now pillage the commonwealth and pull for the savings of society as a whole before
link |
03:23:20.360
you go bankrupt.
link |
03:23:21.360
And indeed, this is what Hitler did, right, Hitler hyperinflated in the Weimar Republic
link |
03:23:28.200
to fund his war efforts.
link |
03:23:31.840
And frankly, every dictator, every world war, every internment camp in history was made
link |
03:23:38.760
possible by the weaponization of money in fiat currency.
link |
03:23:43.520
So I hope, I know Jordan Peterson is a huge proponent of free speech, and I think that's
link |
03:23:49.800
ultimately at its deep essence, that's what Bitcoin really is, right?
link |
03:23:53.200
It is just the purest form of monetary speech we've ever had.
link |
03:23:58.880
And by purifying that primary operating system of human action, I think we can eliminate
link |
03:24:06.120
this pathological hierarchy that is unfortunately the dominant institution in the world today.
link |
03:24:11.360
Yeah.
link |
03:24:12.360
I'm definitely, especially with these explorations of Bitcoin, this journey I've been on, I'll
link |
03:24:18.400
revisit some of the aspects of human history that I've been looking at, like Stalin and
link |
03:24:23.440
Hitler, from a perspective of a monetary perspective, like what are the effects of inflation?
link |
03:24:33.240
How was it used as a tool in gaining power, in maintaining power, in manipulating the populace,
link |
03:24:43.200
in doing, in inflicting suffering, and I would say evil onto the world?
link |
03:24:51.560
It's interesting.
link |
03:24:53.800
It's interesting.
link |
03:24:54.800
I'm gonna have to sort of go back into the whole.
link |
03:24:57.000
So I tend to focus more on the human nature, and less about the tools that human nature
link |
03:25:06.560
leverages to effect change, but you're right that in some sense money is a tool which can
link |
03:25:15.200
be effectively used to perform moral and immoral actions, depending on how it's used.
link |
03:25:23.120
And there's a feedback between the two, right?
link |
03:25:25.920
Because specifically with money itself, there's the way I've been posing it lately, is that
link |
03:25:39.760
I actually think, we typically think of people as good or bad, or again, trying to label
link |
03:25:44.600
people all the time, but I think people and their characters are emergent properties
link |
03:25:49.480
of the incentive structures they inhabit.
link |
03:25:52.720
So what does Charlie Munger say, show me the incentives, I'll show you the outcome kind
link |
03:25:57.960
of thing.
link |
03:25:59.800
This is a flawed incentive structure we've been operating within.
link |
03:26:03.600
Now I'm not speaking to the intention, people want to argue with me all the time, like Jerome
link |
03:26:07.680
Powell's not a bad guy, he's doing his best at the central bank, he's doing what he thinks
link |
03:26:11.760
is right, that's fine.
link |
03:26:13.600
Whether that's true or not, it actually doesn't matter.
link |
03:26:16.360
The intention is divergent from the outcome.
link |
03:26:19.040
The institution that they are running is premised on deception and theft, and it is handicapping
link |
03:26:24.080
the productive economy.
link |
03:26:25.640
So even the terms we use, printing money, you're not creating any new value, you're
link |
03:26:30.560
not infusing the economy with anything, any new productive factors whatsoever, you're
link |
03:26:34.560
just harvesting the economic surplus created by entrepreneurs in the marketplace.
link |
03:26:39.680
It's impossible to add any value to an economy by increasing the paper claims on its savings.
link |
03:26:45.840
So there's a feedback loop between man and tool, between creator and created.
link |
03:26:53.280
I think we have to honor the relationship above either one, trying to put the right
link |
03:26:59.240
people in the system or just build the right system, we need both.
link |
03:27:03.360
Do you think the interesting question of whether the people that are in control of central
link |
03:27:10.320
banks or in positions of power there, if they themselves are malevolent, if they themselves
link |
03:27:17.880
are bad actors, or they're simply like leaves floating along the river, sort of just a cog
link |
03:27:28.600
in the machine, an ant in an ant colony that operates in a certain kind of way.
link |
03:27:34.880
Where do you put the blame?
link |
03:27:36.760
Do you put the blame on the way things are operating onto the individuals or onto the
link |
03:27:43.160
system itself, the idea behind the system, where is it useful to place the blame somewhere?
link |
03:27:50.880
Because for me, it might be useful to understand that in order to figure out what the solution
link |
03:27:55.880
is.
link |
03:27:57.040
I tend to not put the blame on the individual, I tend to believe most people are good and
link |
03:28:02.560
want to see themselves as good.
link |
03:28:05.680
And so in that case, it's very difficult to be truly malevolent as you would need to
link |
03:28:09.920
be to control, to gain centralized power at the large scale.
link |
03:28:15.000
But I know a lot of conspiracy theorists and just a lot of people think that there is evil
link |
03:28:22.840
humans in the world that seek power, maintain that power and then use that power for bad
link |
03:28:28.040
purposes.
link |
03:28:30.680
I think they're just people and they're just trying to get something for nothing like all
link |
03:28:34.680
of us do.
link |
03:28:35.680
I like this framework of thought.
link |
03:28:38.280
Honestly, and that's what the central bank is, is the ultimate institution to get something
link |
03:28:44.080
for nothing.
link |
03:28:45.280
You get a perpetual income stream, the ability to acquire more and more territory in the
link |
03:28:52.600
world through monopolizing the supply of money and you can literally print money.
link |
03:29:00.160
You can buy your way out of anything and buy your way into anything in the world.
link |
03:29:04.640
So it is, I think the most, I'd say the most, but a group of very intelligent people put
link |
03:29:11.720
this thing together and figured out how to get something for nothing in perpetuity by
link |
03:29:18.600
clouding people's conception of money.
link |
03:29:21.760
And if we look at the central bank, it's been around for a while, but the latest implementation
link |
03:29:27.800
here in the US is the Fed, it's about 100 years old.
link |
03:29:30.680
It's an analog age institution that I think has lost a lot of its relevance in the modern
link |
03:29:36.600
age and I don't think it will survive the ever galvanizing gaze of the digital age or
link |
03:29:43.040
just too much sunlight, too much transparency today, ideas move too quickly for something
link |
03:29:48.760
like this to remain relevant.
link |
03:29:51.480
But they are just people, they are just seeking something for nothing, but I think when you
link |
03:29:56.320
concentrate that much power and that much control, that much wealth into the hands of
link |
03:30:00.960
few, it does change.
link |
03:30:05.040
Hayek argued that the nature of power, again, it's something that we all sort of desire.
link |
03:30:11.640
To be completely powerless, you're really unhappy.
link |
03:30:14.080
If you're totally powerless, you're a slave.
link |
03:30:16.600
Someone else tells you what to do, you have no autonomy, it's miserable.
link |
03:30:20.680
So there's this, it makes the consolidation of power alluring and that we want to protect
link |
03:30:25.440
ourselves from that slave state, let's say.
link |
03:30:28.560
But like many things, it can be taken too far.
link |
03:30:31.760
And when you concentrate power into too few hands, Hayek argues that it actually transforms.
link |
03:30:38.560
It becomes something much more intoxicating than it would be if it was held in a more
link |
03:30:42.380
distributed way.
link |
03:30:44.440
And I think that gets into a lot of these, I don't know if they call themselves elites
link |
03:30:50.080
or people call them elites or what are like, let's say shareholders of central banks, people
link |
03:30:55.160
participating in the World Economic Forum, things like this.
link |
03:30:59.320
They come, I guess the incentives, right, the incentive schema they're in is rewarding
link |
03:31:04.160
them constantly, telling them everything they're doing, saying and thinking is correct because
link |
03:31:08.080
they just keep getting richer all the time.
link |
03:31:10.960
And it leads you closer to this definition of evil, which in the book Paradise Lost,
link |
03:31:19.280
Friedman said, evil is the force which believes its knowledge is complete.
link |
03:31:23.840
So these people become more and more convinced that they have the plan or they have the course
link |
03:31:31.480
of action that will save the world, that if everyone would just listen to them, that they
link |
03:31:35.920
would lead us to the promised land, right?
link |
03:31:38.120
Whether this is Bill Gates saving us from a climate crisis or any of these other economic
link |
03:31:43.800
policies that are targeted at a certain outcome, but almost always diverge almost perfectly
link |
03:31:49.200
from that outcome, creating its opposite effect.
link |
03:31:53.520
I think that's the problem, that we have this mechanism that can concentrate wealth and
link |
03:31:58.720
power into the hands of so few that it leads to the proliferation of evil, meaning that
link |
03:32:06.000
it convinces people that their knowledge is complete, whereas something like a Bitcoin
link |
03:32:12.720
almost forces the opposite outcome.
link |
03:32:17.560
In a Bitcoin denominated world, a pure free market, the consumer is sovereign.
link |
03:32:24.600
So you cannot earn value in the world unless you are serving your fellow man, unless they
link |
03:32:30.920
have expressed their buy and sell decisions in the marketplace, right?
link |
03:32:35.880
You've created a satisfaction of a particular want that they value so much, they've acquired
link |
03:32:42.000
so much of your good or service that you've become rich.
link |
03:32:45.240
You can only maintain that position of wealth so long as you continue to serve your fellow
link |
03:32:49.000
man.
link |
03:32:50.520
It changes the incentive such that dominance in the world can no longer be paired with coercion.
link |
03:32:59.120
It has to be paired with competence.
link |
03:33:03.200
That's how this, when we say Bitcoin fixes this, that's what we mean.
link |
03:33:06.560
It restores that skin in the game, that balance of incentives and disincentives that help
link |
03:33:11.680
us properly navigate reality and it prevents the buildup of systemic rot like we see with
link |
03:33:18.240
the central bank.
link |
03:33:20.440
What books, people love this question and you're exceptionally well read.
link |
03:33:25.920
You've explored all kinds of ideas.
link |
03:33:28.400
Is there some books, technical fiction, philosophical, coloring books, children's books had an impact
link |
03:33:35.040
on your life and you would maybe recommend to others that they should read?
link |
03:33:41.080
I think we mentioned a couple of them here today, but I think a really useful triplet
link |
03:33:46.760
of books that I've been recommending recently to help diffuse this materialist worldview
link |
03:33:55.080
of reality where we still think in the Newtonian model that it's atoms and cause and effect.
link |
03:34:03.480
I'd first recommend Jordan Peterson's book, Maps of Meaning.
link |
03:34:07.720
It's a deep dive into mythology and how it's developed over the course of history and how
link |
03:34:14.560
it's reflected both in our social structures and our intracyclic nature, really, and how
link |
03:34:21.520
they come to reflect one another in a way, like the way we think, again, shapes the world
link |
03:34:25.720
and then the way the world is shaped the way we think.
link |
03:34:29.920
That's an excellent book.
link |
03:34:30.920
It's a very dense and difficult read.
link |
03:34:33.160
Actually, this trilogy is pretty brutal.
link |
03:34:35.240
It'll probably take you a year to read hours a day.
link |
03:34:39.440
The second one I mentioned earlier was Human Action by Mises.
link |
03:34:44.640
The ultimate tome on Austrian economics will help explicate this realm of relevance.
link |
03:34:50.160
I think that economics truly is where, again, there are things and then these things become
link |
03:34:58.720
means or ends once we channel our purpose through them.
link |
03:35:03.760
This realm of nonmaterialist relevance that I think is really important to grasping economics
link |
03:35:10.400
at a first principles level, I think that book lays it out tremendously.
link |
03:35:15.600
The last one would be, I think I mentioned this at the beginning, was that book Leela
link |
03:35:18.440
by Robert Persig, where he's making the case that value is fundamental.
link |
03:35:24.040
All of these books, they all point to that, actually.
link |
03:35:27.640
They're pointing back to value being the fundamental thing.
link |
03:35:33.440
It's expressed through moral action as being the fundamental substrate of reality.
link |
03:35:39.280
If you're like me, I grew up quite scientific minded.
link |
03:35:42.120
It'll help diffuse some of that and maybe retrain you to the other side of reality.
link |
03:35:47.760
You said these books are difficult.
link |
03:35:49.480
Maybe you can comment on which aspect is difficult.
link |
03:35:52.920
Is it just the technical nature?
link |
03:35:54.400
Is it the length?
link |
03:35:55.480
Is it the depth of the ideas or how long it takes to integrate them?
link |
03:35:59.440
More importantly, is there recommendation advice you can give on how to integrate these
link |
03:36:08.840
ideas, how to read, how to learn in this space?
link |
03:36:13.920
From your own life, how do you enjoy taking ideas?
link |
03:36:17.080
This could be for these books, but also in the Bitcoin world and reading a bunch of different
link |
03:36:22.240
ideas written by others, just integrating stuff, even watching podcasts and all those
link |
03:36:28.440
kinds of things.
link |
03:36:29.440
Yeah.
link |
03:36:30.440
I'm a reader.
link |
03:36:31.440
I love to read.
link |
03:36:32.440
One of the most useful things I've ever done was take a speed reading course.
link |
03:36:38.920
I actually think there's a version of this available on Tim Ferriss's website.
link |
03:36:41.640
It's like a 30 minute speed reading course.
link |
03:36:43.680
It's all about eye movement.
link |
03:36:45.920
Instead of moving your eye continuously, line over line, it's more about jumping in
link |
03:36:49.960
your brain.
link |
03:36:50.960
You can train your brain to just absorb words in their totality versus kind of reading word
link |
03:36:55.360
by word and also not... I've haven't fully taken that journey actually, but I remember
link |
03:37:03.640
taking a few steps on that journey, realizing that I'm speaking inside my head.
link |
03:37:09.120
I'm saying the words inside my head and that's actually getting in the way.
link |
03:37:12.320
That's right.
link |
03:37:13.320
There's a lot of little hacks like that.
link |
03:37:15.080
I may be lazily... Now that you mentioned, I'll have to revisit this, but I have convinced
link |
03:37:21.240
myself that I don't need to read faster because that's not ultimately the bottleneck.
link |
03:37:25.480
The bottleneck is in me thinking about stuff.
link |
03:37:28.280
In fact, I like reading really slowly or so I convinced myself because ultimately it's
link |
03:37:33.720
not about gaining more information.
link |
03:37:35.600
It's about time spent thinking deeply.
link |
03:37:40.440
But maybe that's just me being very lazy because yes, it's true.
link |
03:37:44.240
It's important to think deeply, but maybe I could speed up the consumption of information.
link |
03:37:49.480
It's fun.
link |
03:37:51.480
I like to be dynamic actually.
link |
03:37:54.160
Usually speed reading initially and that diffused that internal dialogue for me because when
link |
03:37:58.600
I was reading one word at a time, I was having that too.
link |
03:38:00.400
You almost get a feedback in your own head.
link |
03:38:02.320
You're reading the word out loud and it's outing your thoughts.
link |
03:38:04.800
If you're speed reading, you can't do that.
link |
03:38:07.040
You're taking in groups of words at a time so you can't internally verbalize it, I guess.
link |
03:38:13.280
Then I also am really big on annotating, underlining, writing in the margins.
link |
03:38:17.720
I prefer a physical book, but I also read the Kindle a lot because it's just so convenient.
link |
03:38:23.360
Anywhere you're waiting in line or every night before bed, I'm reading my Kindle.
link |
03:38:27.640
I also advocate rereading a lot.
link |
03:38:30.320
If you found something that struck you at a deep level, you found particularly fascinating,
link |
03:38:36.240
you have to listen to that.
link |
03:38:37.680
That's your mind or your spirit signal that that is something meaningful to you and you
link |
03:38:43.720
should, to your point, reread it, sit with it for a long time, write about it.
link |
03:38:52.360
That becomes the ultimate triumvirate of synthesizing an idea actually.
link |
03:38:57.560
If you can read about it and then write about it and then go and talk about it, you get
link |
03:39:03.760
this crystallization of understanding that's just not possible doing any one of the three
link |
03:39:07.920
or any two of the three.
link |
03:39:10.800
I definitely highly recommend people to do that.
link |
03:39:15.160
In terms of how are those books difficult, in every way, they're all long books.
link |
03:39:22.760
In terms of density, I would say Leela is the least dense, maybe maps of meaning.
link |
03:39:32.280
I don't know, maps of meaning and human action both extremely dense.
link |
03:39:37.880
I had to read those books very slow.
link |
03:39:40.640
You just have to take your time with them.
link |
03:39:42.760
To give you an idea with Jordan Peterson, he said this a lot with maps of meaning.
link |
03:39:47.160
He spent three hours a day writing for 15 years to write that book.
link |
03:39:51.240
I think it's a 600 page book.
link |
03:39:53.440
He said he estimates he rewrote every sentence in the book 50 times, 5, 0, to try and get
link |
03:39:59.680
it just perfected.
link |
03:40:02.760
When you read these sentences, you can tell that he rewrote it 50 times.
link |
03:40:09.600
I've used actually Anki for space repetition.
link |
03:40:14.120
It's an app.
link |
03:40:15.120
I'm not sure if you're familiar with it, but it allows you to load in facts or terms or
link |
03:40:22.400
entire paragraphs and then you review them every day and then it brings them up less
link |
03:40:31.600
and less often over time as you show yourself being able to remember the thing that you
link |
03:40:38.360
wanted to memorize.
link |
03:40:39.920
Oftentimes, what I'm reading, what I want to memorize is the key idea, but also I use
link |
03:40:45.240
it for...
link |
03:40:46.240
I'm terrible with names, so I started to use it for names too, of names of people, names
link |
03:40:50.440
of people that I want to remember and also throughout history and also in my personal
link |
03:40:56.200
life, but also events.
link |
03:40:58.400
Dates to me are usually not important, but sometimes dates are really important.
link |
03:41:03.840
It's really useful.
link |
03:41:04.840
I'd recommend it highly.
link |
03:41:05.840
I think mentioned a piece of software called ReadWise or something like that, that I hope
link |
03:41:13.720
I'm saying that correctly.
link |
03:41:14.720
It's something like that.
link |
03:41:16.800
What it does is it goes to your highlights from your Kindle or the various places where
link |
03:41:23.080
you highlight stuff that integrates with good reads and it does the same kind of space repetition,
link |
03:41:30.080
but for things you've highlighted.
link |
03:41:33.160
It sends an email every day.
link |
03:41:36.480
It's been really...
link |
03:41:37.480
I recommend it highly because it sends to me an email form, a selection of the things
link |
03:41:44.560
I've highlighted and previous things I've read, and it's like this weird shock to your
link |
03:41:51.040
memory that sprinkles like, I'll probably weigh too much Orwell in there, and it just
link |
03:41:58.160
kind of brings you back and these ideas there because what you realize, depending on how
link |
03:42:03.900
you highlight, but at least for me, and I think it's probably true for a lot of people,
link |
03:42:08.960
the things you've highlighted had at that moment an emotional impact on you.
link |
03:42:14.600
These things are just hitting you hard again.
link |
03:42:16.720
It's like, whoa, it might not be meaningful to anyone else except you, and it's something
link |
03:42:22.360
I recommend.
link |
03:42:23.360
You never know with these hacks or tools and so on what's actually BS and what is amazing
link |
03:42:29.400
and that one is kind of amazing.
link |
03:42:31.520
So at least for me, it works for me and Naval, I think he's the one.
link |
03:42:35.920
Read wise, you said.
link |
03:42:37.080
Read wise or something close to that.
link |
03:42:40.000
It could be read something else, like read wealth or something.
link |
03:42:43.720
The one other thing I really like, and this is more of a new one, is I used to always
link |
03:42:49.240
listen to music at the gym, but now I've just, because I'm so backlogged on podcasts, there's
link |
03:42:55.400
so many.
link |
03:42:56.400
I exclusively listen to podcasts when I'm walking or when I'm at the gym.
link |
03:43:00.480
Anytime I'm doing something that I can't read, basically.
link |
03:43:05.600
And I think there's something really special about exercise and ideation.
link |
03:43:11.080
I don't know if this happens to everyone, but my creative juices just go ballistic when
link |
03:43:14.600
I'm at the gym.
link |
03:43:15.600
If I hit a certain point of, I guess, heart rate and you're sweating enough, then the
link |
03:43:20.000
idea is to start to flow.
link |
03:43:21.920
So I'm basically at the gym now listening to podcasts, exercising as fast as I can to
link |
03:43:27.240
try to get to that state of where you're just straining your strenuous exercise, I guess
link |
03:43:33.560
you would say.
link |
03:43:34.560
And then I end up typing notes into my phone as fast as I can with all these ideas that
link |
03:43:38.040
are flowing.
link |
03:43:39.280
So I've created a lot of good writing out of that.
link |
03:43:42.160
Yeah, it's kind of worked, so I do running quite a bit, so running outside.
link |
03:43:48.240
And I'll listen to, I've been, okay, I told myself this has been going on for about a
link |
03:43:53.960
year.
link |
03:43:55.200
Is I only listen to stuff that's either World War II or World War I related.
link |
03:44:01.940
So Hitler, Stalin, like difficult historical stuff.
link |
03:44:10.280
And also listen to brown noise.
link |
03:44:13.260
So those are the two modes.
link |
03:44:14.560
So brown noise helps me, this is like white noise, but like deeper, I guess, it helps
link |
03:44:20.520
me remove the world.
link |
03:44:22.840
At the gym, there's a lot of distractions.
link |
03:44:24.960
When you're running, there's a lot of distractions.
link |
03:44:26.600
It helps me remove the world.
link |
03:44:27.760
So one, I'll be listening to difficult historical ideas.
link |
03:44:32.520
And then when my mind is all of a sudden starting to generate ideas, I'll listen to brown noise
link |
03:44:37.760
and then force myself to think.
link |
03:44:40.320
It's kind of, it's meditative in a sense.
link |
03:44:44.720
And your mind wants to be lazy.
link |
03:44:46.560
You want to, it's hard, man, like running and thinking in the sense that some of the ideas
link |
03:44:53.640
that come into your head are pretty heavy.
link |
03:44:56.320
It's about your own life, it's your own demons come in there, but also just difficult ideas
link |
03:45:01.520
that require you thinking through and persevering through that, like not letting yourself get
link |
03:45:06.560
lazy and like thinking through it has been really for me rewarding in the same way that
link |
03:45:11.160
you're saying it is for you.
link |
03:45:14.040
It's true that like podcasts and music, like shallow, like funny podcasts or music have
link |
03:45:21.040
been a kind of filler distraction, but informational podcasts, like podcasts that have some depths
link |
03:45:28.680
of ideas or audio books have been not truly rewarding.
link |
03:45:32.600
I try to listen now less and less to podcasts that are just fun, because I feel like I enjoyed
link |
03:45:38.920
too much and I don't allow my mind to get bored and to think through stuff, to explore
link |
03:45:44.280
ideas.
link |
03:45:45.280
It's so easy to fill the space that usually would be filled with thought and instead fill
link |
03:45:53.560
it with fun podcasts, like there's a bunch of comedy podcasts I really enjoy.
link |
03:45:58.400
So there's value to that, of course, but you have to realize it's entertainment.
link |
03:46:02.160
It's not, you don't get much value except entertainment.
link |
03:46:07.440
Right.
link |
03:46:08.440
And there's utility to the boredom too, I think, to give your mind the space, I guess
link |
03:46:15.640
your subconscious may be the space to chew on some of these problems, where you've imbibed
link |
03:46:19.920
so much knowledge, you've highlighted and thought about something, but then you need
link |
03:46:23.840
to stop thinking about it for a while and let it marinate in the subconscious.
link |
03:46:28.120
And then these flashes of insight that people have described, sometimes I get them in the
link |
03:46:32.760
middle of the night, I can just wake up from a dream and have them and I got to write it
link |
03:46:35.440
down or sometimes it's in nature, taking a walk.
link |
03:46:38.880
But I think that's very important too.
link |
03:46:40.480
We can't just brute force our way into understanding, there's this interplay between the brute force
link |
03:46:46.840
reading intake and then just relaxing, meditating, sleeping, being bored, letting your subconscious
link |
03:46:54.480
do the heavy lifting.
link |
03:46:56.200
And there's, you should be aware of the fact that there's a war for your attention going
link |
03:47:00.880
on.
link |
03:47:01.880
So there's a lot of, there's been better and better and better mechanisms that are designed
link |
03:47:06.440
to steal your attention.
link |
03:47:08.680
So I kind of see it as a war zone between my right for boredom and the internet wanting
link |
03:47:16.440
your attention.
link |
03:47:17.440
In fact, clubhouse as an app has been, I'm probably not going to use clubhouse much anymore.
link |
03:47:25.440
There's some aspect of my own inner loneliness and whatever it is that pulled me into clubhouse
link |
03:47:31.000
a little bit too much to where, where it robbed me from that lonely time alone where I sit
link |
03:47:36.800
and listen to Bruce Springsteen and think about life.
link |
03:47:39.080
Right?
link |
03:47:40.080
So I want to.
link |
03:47:41.080
That's way more important.
link |
03:47:42.080
That's way, well, yeah, at least, you know, it's all in balance because there is a clubhouse
link |
03:47:46.760
like a lot of these social networks when you use right can be a way to discover new ideas
link |
03:47:50.800
and new people, but the boredom and just being alone with your thoughts is priceless.
link |
03:47:57.440
Absolutely.
link |
03:47:58.440
And you got to know yourself, right?
link |
03:47:59.600
Like it took me a long time to realize I need solitude.
link |
03:48:02.480
Yeah.
link |
03:48:03.480
Like just how I'm wired, how I'm built, I need like an hour a day solitude.
link |
03:48:07.480
So you got to listen to that part of yourself.
link |
03:48:08.880
You might be compromising something like that where you feel like you always need to be with
link |
03:48:13.040
your girlfriend or whatever it may be, but I would suggest listening to that voice.
link |
03:48:17.640
Yeah.
link |
03:48:18.640
So I tried to remember things that made me feel good over time, like longterm had positive
link |
03:48:24.320
impact and longterm had negative impact and do more of the former unless there's a ladder.
link |
03:48:31.200
We don't often think like that.
link |
03:48:33.240
You know, we talked offline about like carnivore diets, for example, I try to remember that
link |
03:48:39.040
carbs don't make me feel good.
link |
03:48:40.920
Yeah.
link |
03:48:41.920
That's what's hard.
link |
03:48:42.920
In the moment, it's hard to remember that.
link |
03:48:45.200
You have to remember that that's the case and in the same way, exercise, it's hard to
link |
03:48:52.360
remember that exercise makes me feel good.
link |
03:48:56.320
Like especially when it's time to go to the gym, especially when it's time to go to the
link |
03:48:59.080
gym, but you should remember that because the kind of person you are without exercise
link |
03:49:03.840
for me, just like he's beautifully said, that you have to know yourself.
link |
03:49:07.480
The kind of person I am without exercise is a less good person, a person I'm less proud
link |
03:49:14.760
of.
link |
03:49:15.760
Yeah.
link |
03:49:16.760
The food thing is so hard.
link |
03:49:17.760
By the way, I still, you know, I can't tell you how many times I've learned the lesson,
link |
03:49:21.920
like don't eat that.
link |
03:49:23.680
But then, you know, you go a few weeks of not eating whatever that is and you're feeling
link |
03:49:27.680
good and then you're, I don't know, something creeps up inside you like, ah, you can just
link |
03:49:31.600
have one or you just do this.
link |
03:49:33.240
But for me, it's sugar.
link |
03:49:34.240
Like sugar just makes me feel terrible.
link |
03:49:37.000
But always, not always, but if it's been a long time, I start to make that exception
link |
03:49:41.040
in my mind, like, oh, you can have a little bit and then I eat it and I feel terrible.
link |
03:49:44.280
I don't know how many times I've done that dance, but it's not cool.
link |
03:49:47.480
What depends on how painful it is and then you learn the lesson, I haven't, I actually
link |
03:49:51.120
embraced the fact that I'll never learn the lesson with vodka.
link |
03:49:54.800
Every time I drink, especially with Russians, it's like, I quit drinking every time.
link |
03:50:00.400
And then I forget, there's like a slow drop off, it'll be like a two weeks and then.
link |
03:50:05.160
Nasterovia.
link |
03:50:06.160
Nasterovia.
link |
03:50:07.160
Very good.
link |
03:50:08.680
So it never makes me feel good.
link |
03:50:12.120
It never results in anything good, except the beautiful social chaos, which is ultimately
link |
03:50:20.960
somehow, there's value to chaos too, you know, there's value to that, whatever the hell stupid
link |
03:50:26.640
stuff you do when you get trashed, the over the top emotion of love usually or whatever,
link |
03:50:33.920
camaraderie, there's value to that too.
link |
03:50:36.280
Like, as I get older, I realize, because the world, sometimes, especially when you get
link |
03:50:44.040
older and the world wants you to be an adult, in order to maintain the youthful spirit,
link |
03:50:49.520
you have to use all the tools you can, alcohol is one of them, to do all the stupid shit
link |
03:50:54.960
you can, even if you're like getting older.
link |
03:50:57.960
To lower the inhibitions and, again, it's that taste of uncertainty that is the sweetness
link |
03:51:02.600
of life, right, to be able to go out and be a flaner at a party and not really know what
link |
03:51:07.320
you're going to do.
link |
03:51:08.320
And it's, we have this draw to the wild side of life, as much as we try and build up order
link |
03:51:14.280
around ourselves, I think there's always going to be an appetite for that.
link |
03:51:18.480
I've always, most of my life, I've always been a social drinker, but I actually gave
link |
03:51:23.480
up alcohol a year ago.
link |
03:51:25.440
And I would add that to the idea, the repertoire for dealing with bigger ideas, because alcohol
link |
03:51:34.880
is fun, it's a, you know, good times, it can be analgesic, it can give you all these benefits
link |
03:51:42.200
if you use the right amounts.
link |
03:51:43.960
But I got to the point personally, where I was trying to wrestle with these ideas that
link |
03:51:48.480
are just so much bigger than me, and I have this backlog of books that was growing faster
link |
03:51:53.520
than I could read them, that I just reached a point where I decided I wanted to start
link |
03:51:58.840
making sacrifices toward attaining that.
link |
03:52:01.600
And alcohol was just an easy one, you know, it's you spend, even if you just drink socially
link |
03:52:07.320
on the weekends, you're probably spending five to 10 hours drinking and then maybe another,
link |
03:52:13.320
what, five to 10 hours recovering, perhaps on the day after.
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03:52:19.240
So it was a difficult transition initially, but once you get through a couple of months,
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03:52:25.800
I feel amazing without it.
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03:52:27.120
I sleep better than ever.
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03:52:28.780
My workouts are better than ever.
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03:52:30.600
I'm sharper than ever, I'm more lucid.
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03:52:33.240
So I'm not trying to be a proponent for like not drinking, but I just want to say.
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03:52:36.480
But you're a proponent for sacrifice.
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03:52:38.160
I am a big proponent for sacrifice.
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03:52:40.960
Is there advice you would give to a young person today, curious about Bitcoin, curious
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03:52:45.560
about how they succeed in the world, or both career wise and just in life in general?
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03:52:54.760
I mean, the strongest piece of advice I have for, this is beyond just Bitcoin.
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03:53:01.160
This is you managing your own personal and financial affairs is that you need to invest
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03:53:08.280
in knowledge first.
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03:53:11.800
It's not good enough to just follow the crowd and buy a 60, 40 portfolio and put it in a
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03:53:19.040
Roth IRA and plan on social security.
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03:53:21.960
I mean, the world's changing much faster than any existing institution is going to be able
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03:53:29.400
to keep up with.
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03:53:31.280
So that's why I like, I mean, that's why I named the show, the question, what is money?
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03:53:35.640
Like, I think that to me is the rabbit that took me down the rabbit hole is like just asking
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03:53:40.820
that question naturally progressed to these other questions, like what is value, what
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03:53:46.280
is government, what is the purpose of society, speech, all of these things.
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03:53:52.520
So I would encourage people to arm yourself with knowledge and study.
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03:53:59.120
A lot of financial people always give you a line of advice and then say, this is not
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03:54:04.880
financial advice.
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03:54:05.880
Well, like this is financial advice, like study, study, learn.
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03:54:12.480
Knowledge is power.
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03:54:13.480
Yeah.
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03:54:14.480
This is official financial advice.
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03:54:15.480
Yes.
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03:54:16.480
And you're exercising your divine trait, which is the logos, right, that we are these animals
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03:54:24.840
that can tell and believe stories.
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03:54:26.640
So it feels like almost a sacred duty to really sharpen that part of ourselves and use it
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03:54:32.520
to create the best world possible.
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03:54:37.040
And then, you know, the second one was the, I think, health and fitness stuff.
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03:54:40.560
I was, maybe everyone does this in their twenties.
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03:54:45.960
They just live a little fast and beat themselves up.
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03:54:51.480
Not that I wasn't like I was living well and, you know, successful by a lot of measures,
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03:54:58.480
but I wish I had maybe gotten my act together a little bit sooner.
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03:55:04.400
I just think, health wise, morality wise, yeah, drinking, I think, morality and eating,
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03:55:11.040
you know, I just was kind of doing whatever I wanted in some ways.
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03:55:15.040
Let's say, is there a value to a trajectory that includes a lot of mistakes?
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03:55:20.000
So maybe you're supposed to make the mistakes in your twenties.
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03:55:22.640
That's a great point.
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03:55:23.640
Maybe the twenties are all about the mistakes, accumulate the most mistakes possible.
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03:55:27.200
Yeah.
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03:55:28.200
I don't regret any of it.
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03:55:32.400
But now that I'm kind of in this place where I feel good and I know the value of a good
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03:55:36.880
night's sleep and just, I've more deeply explored my own potential that I feel maybe a little
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03:55:43.680
regretful that I didn't do this earlier is all I'm saying.
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03:55:46.280
So maybe just exploring different sides of yourself, right?
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03:55:50.720
See what it's like to go and make a bunch of mistakes and be wild and crazy.
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03:55:54.000
And then maybe try to walk the straight and narrow for a few months and just see what
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03:55:57.000
it's like.
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03:55:59.120
There's probably a guy doing vodka shots right now listening to this podcast with his
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03:56:03.360
buddies and they, if you are pleased to take a shot for us, for all the mistakes and you
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03:56:09.760
should make in your twenties.
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03:56:12.680
And what about love?
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03:56:18.040
We talked about money is ultimately a mechanism by which you can pave a moral path through
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03:56:27.920
life.
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03:56:29.320
You know, to me, one of the purest expressions that is love broadly defined for a family,
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03:56:34.640
for others, for knowledge for the world is basically an optimistic open view to the world
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03:56:40.760
that embraces all that is beautiful about this world.
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03:56:44.920
So do you think about love often in a personal sense, romantic family, friendship, and in
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03:56:53.080
the broad sense about its value in a successful life?
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03:56:58.760
Yeah, of course, I'm blessed to have a two and a half year old daughter.
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03:57:04.920
And love is a word we throw around, you know, it's like, I love these potato chips.
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03:57:10.240
I love you, man.
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03:57:11.240
I love you, my daughter.
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03:57:12.800
It's got so many different intensities, I guess you might say, but I don't know.
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03:57:20.200
My intuition is that it is something very fundamental to the universe.
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03:57:26.440
Again, I know words don't do it justice, but if we just proxy love with selfless action,
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03:57:34.360
the whole damn universe is selflessly acting, right?
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03:57:38.400
It's just unfolding.
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03:57:40.040
And it may sound a bit hippie, dippy, but my intuition is just that love is the core
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03:57:46.280
of it somehow.
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03:57:48.840
I don't have anything to back that up really, it's just...
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03:57:52.000
In the way you're framing it, it's making me think that love, we're talked about sort
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03:57:58.560
of meditation, is as opposed to thinking from an egocentric perspective of you, the individual
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03:58:06.560
operating in this world is allowing you to be empathetic towards the world, and thereby
link |
03:58:12.520
think of the universe, think of the world acting through you, almost like accepting
link |
03:58:17.760
this notion that ideas have you, you don't have ideas, that you're not existing in the
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03:58:24.640
universe, the universe is existing through you.
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03:58:27.360
It's sort of like, that's what selfless in that context means, is like embracing that
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03:58:33.640
thought, that's a weird thought, that's a weird thought that we're just here for a little
link |
03:58:38.440
bit of time, these meat vehicles, receptacles, and this much bigger thing is just using us,
link |
03:58:51.680
not in a malevolent way, but just like a river flows, is using us to create more and more
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03:58:58.200
beautiful things.
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03:58:59.200
Yes, yes, more and more beautiful things.
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03:59:02.040
We are the universe experiencing itself, frankly, right?
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03:59:06.680
That's a trippy thought, man, that in some sense, the universe created us to experience
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03:59:13.240
itself.
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03:59:14.240
And we are one of the highest forms of beauty that nature has created, if we just think
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03:59:20.120
one of the most complex and adaptive thing, we're a reflection of nature, and another
link |
03:59:27.760
thing that comes to mind here is that Dalio has his quote, which says, truth or more accurately,
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03:59:37.400
an accurate depiction of reality is necessary for any good outcome.
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03:59:42.560
So when we think that love or value is primary, I think that too reinforces this thesis that
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03:59:51.120
acting out of love or acting out of proper moral action, you're best reflecting the fundamental
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03:59:56.760
nature of reality, therefore you're best creating the best possible outcomes or the things of
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04:00:01.520
the most beauty, whether that's your artistic expression, your children, your business,
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04:00:05.640
whatever it is.
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04:00:08.120
And Jordan Peterson goes deep into that, where you have to listen to that sense of meaning
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04:00:12.640
in your life, or you might have some decision on paper that's so great this way, but your
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04:00:17.520
heart says no, your heart says otherwise.
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04:00:22.040
I've tried to listen to my heart throughout, and I think that creates the best outcomes.
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04:00:28.120
But nevertheless, does it make you sad that you in particular, Robert, are going to be
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04:00:34.840
dead pretty soon?
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04:00:38.560
As we talk about scarcity, one of the certain things that ensure the scarcity of the human
link |
04:00:45.200
experience is the fact that you and your consciousness are going to be done, they have a deadline.
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04:00:51.680
Only time and Bitcoin are absolutely scarce.
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04:00:58.960
I guess I got started on this philosophical journey a bit when I was younger, but I got
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04:01:05.920
into Musashi and Sun Tzu quite a bit.
link |
04:01:11.360
Who wrote Musashi with the Book of Five Rings, Sun Tzu wrote The Art of War, and one of the
link |
04:01:18.800
things that, I mean, these guys were just absolute beasts.
link |
04:01:22.880
They lived and died by the sword, and they were just very great equanimity about all
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04:01:29.080
things in life.
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04:01:30.080
And I also found this in the Stoic philosophy, where they just are very cool with everything.
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04:01:37.600
And one of the lines there is that the way of the warrior is the resolute acceptance
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04:01:41.680
of death.
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04:01:43.680
So I've always tried to think about that.
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04:01:45.200
Of course, I experience fear, I experience everything that you do on a meat suit, like
link |
04:01:51.920
anxiety and all the things, but I always try to have that higher order view of myself and
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04:01:58.400
that it's just a certain experience occurring at a certain level, but it shouldn't override
link |
04:02:04.960
your kind of highest order self.
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04:02:07.120
That's just resolutely accepted death and that this is your one play in life.
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04:02:13.680
So hopefully that propels me towards proper action.
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04:02:19.480
I think scarcity cannot help but lead to something good.
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04:02:25.280
Just like with this conversation, sadly, it must come to an end.
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04:02:29.360
The scarcity of it is what makes it beautiful.
link |
04:02:31.520
So Robert, this was one of my favorite conversations philosophically and in every other level,
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04:02:40.320
the ideas and the way you express them around Bitcoin, around morality, around money has
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04:02:48.640
been really inspiring and really educational and I'm glad you're out there fighting the
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04:02:53.600
good fight and I'm glad you're wasting all of this time with me.
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04:02:57.040
It was really fun and thank you for coming down to Texas and having some good old brisket
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04:03:04.360
together.
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04:03:05.360
This was really fun, man.
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04:03:06.680
This was awesome.
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04:03:07.680
Thanks for having me, man.
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04:03:10.160
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Robert Breedlove and thank you to Fundrise,
link |
04:03:15.200
Element, MonkPak, and BetterHelp.
link |
04:03:18.680
Check them out in the description to support this podcast.
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04:03:22.080
And now let me leave you with some words from Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
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04:03:26.000
Antifragility is beyond resilience and robustness.
link |
04:03:30.080
The resilient resists shocks and stay the same.
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04:03:33.760
The antifragile gets better.
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04:03:37.600
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.