back to indexRob Reid: The Existential Threat of Engineered Viruses and Lab Leaks | Lex Fridman Podcast #193
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The following is a conversation with Rob Reed, entrepreneur, author, and host of the After
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Sam Harris recommended that I absolutely must talk to Rob about his recent work on the
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future of engineer pandemics.
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I then listened to the four hour special episode of Sam's Making Sense podcast with Rob titled
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Engineering the Apocalypse and I was floored and knew I had to talk to him.
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This is a quick mention of our sponsors, Athletic Greens, Bell Campo, Fund Rise, and
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Check them out in the description to support this podcast.
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As a side note, let me say a few words about the lab leak hypothesis, which proposes that
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COVID 19 is a product of gain of function research on coronaviruses conducted at the
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Wuhan Institute of Virology that was then accidentally leaked due to human error.
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For context, this lab is biosafety level 4, BSL4, and it investigates coronaviruses.
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BSL4 is the highest level of safety, but if you look at all the human in the loop pieces
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required to achieve this level of safety, it becomes clear that even BSL4 labs are highly
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susceptible to human error.
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To me, whether the virus leaked from the lab or not, getting to the bottom of what happened
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is about much more than this particular catastrophic case.
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It is a test for our scientific, political, journalistic, and social institutions of how
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well we can prepare and respond to threats they can cripple or destroy human civilization.
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If we continue gain of function research on viruses, eventually these viruses will leak
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and they will be more deadly and more contagious.
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We can pretend that won't happen, or we can openly and honestly talk about the risks
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This research can both save and destroy human life on Earth as we know it.
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It's a powerful double edged sword.
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If YouTube and other platforms censor conversations about this, if scientists self censor conversations
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about this will become merely victims of our brief Homo sapiens story, not its heroes.
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As I said before, too carelessly labeling ideas as misinformation and dismissing them
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because of that will eventually destroy our ability to discover the truth, and without
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truth we don't have a fighting chance against the great filter before us.
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This is the Lex Friedman podcast, and here is my conversation with Rob Reed.
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I have seen evidence on the internet that you have a sense of humor, allegedly, but
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you also talk and think about the destruction of human civilization.
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What do you think of the Elon Musk hypothesis that the most entertaining outcome is the
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most likely, and he, I think, followed on to say a scene from an external observer.
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Like if somebody was watching us, it seems we come up with creative ways of progressing
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That's fun to watch.
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He said from the standpoint of the observer, not the participant.
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What's interesting about that, those were, I think, just a couple of freestanding tweets,
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and delivered without a whole lot of wrapper of context.
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It's left to the mind of the reader of the tweets to infer what he was talking about.
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That's kind of like, it provokes some interesting thoughts.
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First of all, it presupposes the existence of an observer, and it also presupposes that
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the observer wishes to be entertained and has some mechanism of enforcing their desire
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to be entertained.
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There's a lot underpinning that.
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To me, that suggests, particularly coming from Elon, that it's a reference to simulation
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theory, that somebody is out there and has far greater insights and a far greater ability
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to, let's say, peer into a single individual life and find that entertaining and full of
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plot twists and surprises, and either a happier, tragic ending, or they have an incredible
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meta view, and they can watch the arc of civilization unfolding in a way that is entertaining and
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full of plot twists and surprises and a happier, unhappy ending.
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Okay, so we're presupposing an observer.
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Then on top of that, when you think about it, you're also presupposing a producer, because
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the act of observation is mostly fun if there are plot twists and surprises and other developments
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that you weren't foreseeing.
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I have reread my own novels, and that's fun, because it's something that I worked hard
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on and I slaved over and I love, but there aren't a lot of surprises in there.
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Now, I'm thinking, we need a producer and an observer for that to be true.
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On top of that, it's got to be a very competent producer, because Elon said the most entertaining
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outcome is the most likely one.
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There's lots of layers for thinking about that.
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When you've got a producer who's trying to make it entertaining, it makes me think of
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there was a South Park episode in which Earth turned out to be a reality show.
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Somehow we had failed to entertain the audience as much as we used to, so the Earth show was
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going to get canceled, et cetera.
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Taking all that together, and I'm obviously being a little bit playful in laying this
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out, what is the evidence that we have that we are in a reality that is intended to be
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most entertaining?
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You could look at that reality on the level of individual lives or the whole arc of civilization,
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other levels as well, I'm sure, but just looking from my own life, I think I'd make a pretty
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I spend an inordinate amount of time just looking at a computer.
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I don't think that's very entertaining, and there's just a completely inadequate level
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of shootouts and car chases in my life.
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I'll go weeks, even months, without a single shootout or car chase.
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That just means that you're one of the nonplayer characters in this game.
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You're just waiting to meet.
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You're an extra that waiting for you one opportunity for a brief moment to actually
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interact with one of the main characters in the play.
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Okay, that's good.
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Okay, so we'll rule out me being the star of the show, which I probably could have guessed
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Anyway, but not even the arc of civilization.
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There have been a lot of really intriguing things that have happened and a lot of astounding
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things that have happened, but I would have some werewolves.
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I'd have some zombies.
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I would have some really improbable developments like maybe Canada absorbing the United States.
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I'm not sure if we're necessarily designed for maximum entertainment, but if we are,
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that will mean that 2020 is just a prequel for even more bizarre years ahead.
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I kind of hope that we're not designed for maximum entertainment.
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Well, the night is still young in terms of Canada, but do you think it's possible for
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the observer and the producer to be kind of emergent?
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So meaning it does seem when you kind of watch memes on the internet, the funny ones,
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the entertaining ones spread more efficiently.
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I mean, I don't know what it is about the human mind that soaks up on mass funny things
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much more sort of aggressively.
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It's more viral in the full sense of that word.
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Is there some sense that whatever the evolutionary process that created our cognitive capabilities
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is the same process that's going to, in an emergent way, create the most entertaining
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outcome, the most memeofiable outcome, the most viral outcome if we were to share it
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Yeah, that's interesting.
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Yeah, we do have an incredible ability, how many memes are created in a given day and
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the ones that go viral are almost uniformly funny, at least to somebody with a particular
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Yeah, I'd have to think about that.
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We are definitely great at creating atomized units of funny.
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In the example that you used, there are going to be X million brains parsing and judging
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whether this meme is retweetable or not.
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And so that atomic element of funniness, of entertainingness, et cetera, we definitely
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have an environment that's good at selecting for that and selective pressure and everything
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else that's going on.
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But in terms of the entire ecosystem of conscious systems here on the earth driving for a level
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of entertainment, that is on such a much higher level that I don't know if that would
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necessarily follow directly from the fact that atomic units of entertainment are very,
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very aptly selected for us.
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Do you find it compelling or useful to think about human civilization from the perspective
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of the ideas versus the perspective of the individual human brains?
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So almost thinking about the ideas or the memes, this is the Dawkins thing as the organisms.
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And then the humans as just vehicles for briefly carrying those organisms as they jump around
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Yeah, for propagating them, mutating them, putting selective pressure on them, et cetera.
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I mean, I found Dawkins, or his launching of the idea of memes is just kind of an afterthought
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to his unbelievably brilliant book about the selfish gene.
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What a PS to put at the end of a long chunk of writing, profoundly interesting.
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I view the relationship though between humans and memes as probably an oversimplification,
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but maybe a little bit like the relationship between flowers and bees, right?
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Do flowers have bees or do bees in a sense have flowers?
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And the answer is it is a very, very symbiotic relationship in which both have semi independent
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roles that they play and both are highly dependent upon the other.
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And so in the case of bees, obviously, you could see the flowers being this monolithic
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structure physically in relation to any given bee, and it's the source of food and sustenance.
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So you could kind of say, well, flowers have bees.
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But on the other hand, the flowers would obviously be doomed.
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They weren't being pollinated by the bees.
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So you could kind of say, well, flowers are really expression of what the bees need.
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And the truth is a symbiosis.
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So with memes in human minds, our brains are clearly the Petri dishes in which memes are
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either propagated or not propagated, get mutated or don't get mutated.
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They are the venue in which selective competition plays out between different memes.
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So all of that is very true.
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And you could look at that and say, really, the human mind is a production of memes and
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ideas have us rather than us having ideas.
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But at the same time, let's take a catchy tune as an example of a meme.
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That catchy tune did originate in a human mind.
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Somebody had to structure that thing.
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And as much as I like Elizabeth Gilbert's TED talk about how the universe, I'm simplifying,
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you know, kind of the ideas find their way in its beautiful TED talk.
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It's very lyrical.
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She talked about, you know, ideas and prose kind of beaming into our minds.
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And, you know, she talked about needing to pull over to the side of the road when she
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got inspiration for a particular paragraph or a particular idea and a burning need to
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I love that I find that beautiful as a writer, as a novelist myself.
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I've never had that experience.
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And I think that really most things that do become memes are the product of a great deal
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of deliberate and willful exertion of a conscious mind.
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And so like the bees and the flowers, I think there's a great symbiosis.
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And they both kind of have one another.
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Ideas have us, but we have ideas for real.
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If we could take a little bit of a tangent, Stephen King on writing, you as a great writer,
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you dropping a hint here that the ideas don't come to you, that it's a grind of sort of,
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it's almost like you're mining for gold.
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It's more of a very deliberate, rigorous daily process.
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So maybe can you talk about the writing process?
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How do you write well?
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And maybe if you want to step outside of yourself, almost like give advice to an aspiring writer,
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what does it take to write?
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What is the best work of your life?
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Well, it would be very different if it's fiction versus nonfiction.
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And I've done both.
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I've written two works of nonfiction books and two works of fiction.
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Two works of fiction being more recent, I'm going to focus on that right now because that's
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more toweringly on my mind.
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They're amongst novelists, again, this is an oversimplification, but there's kind of
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two schools of thought.
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Some people really like to fly by the seat of their pants, and some people really, really
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like to outline, to plot.
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So there's plotters and panzers, I guess is one way that people look at it.
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And as with most things, there is a great continuum in between, and I'm somewhere on
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that continuum, but I lean, I guess, a little bit more toward the plotter.
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And so when I do start a novel, I have a pretty strong point of view about how it's going
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to end, and I have a very strong point of view about how it's going to begin.
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And I do try to make an effort of making an outline that I know I'm going to be extremely
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unfaithful to in the actual execution of the story, but trying to make an outline that
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gets us from here to there and notion of subplots and beats and rhythm and different characters
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But then when I get into the process, that outline, particularly the center of it, ultimately
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inevitably morphs a great deal.
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And I think if I were personally a rigorous outliner, I would not allow that to happen.
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I also would make a much more vigorous skeleton before I start.
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So I think people who are really in that plotting outlining mode are people who write page turners,
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people who write spy novels or supernatural adventures, where you really want a relentless
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pace of events, action, plot twists, conspiracy, et cetera.
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And that is really the bone, that's really the skeletal structure.
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So I think folks who write that kind of book are really very much on the outlining side.
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And I think people who write what's often referred to as literary fiction for lack of
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a better term, where it's more about sort of aura and ambiance and character development
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and experience and inner experience and inner journey and so forth, I think that group is
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more likely to fly by the seat of the pants.
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And I know people who start with a blank page and just see where it's going to go.
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I'm a little bit more on the plotting side.
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Now you asked what makes something at least in the mind of the writer as great as it can
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For me, it's an astonishingly high percentage of it is editing as opposed to the initial
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For every hour that I spend writing new prose, like new pages, new paragraphs, stuff that
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you know, new bits of the book, I probably spend, I mean, I wish I kept account, like
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I wish I had like one of those pieces of software that lawyers use to decide how much time
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I've been doing this, that, but I would say it's at least four or five hours and maybe
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as many as 10 that I spend editing.
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And so it's relentless for me.
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For each one hour of writing, I'd say that for a while.
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I mean, I write because I edit and I spend just relentlessly polishing and pruning.
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And sometimes on the micro level of just like, does the rhythm of the sentence feel right?
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Do I need to carve a syllable or something so it can land?
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Like as micro as that to as macro as like, okay, I'm done, but the book is 750 pages
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long and it's way too bloated and I need to lop a third out of it.
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Problems on, you know, those two orders of magnitude and everything in between.
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That is an enormous amount of my time.
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And I also write music, write and record and produce music.
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And there the ratio is even higher.
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Every minute that I spend or my band spends laying down that original audio, it's a very
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high proportion of hours that go into just making it all hang together and sound just
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So I think that's true of a lot of creative processes.
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I know it's true of sculpture.
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I believe it's true of woodwork.
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My dad was an amateur woodworker and he spent a huge amount of time on sanding and polishing
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So I think a great deal of the sparkle comes from that part of the process.
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Any creative process.
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Can I ask about the psychological, the demon side of that picture?
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In the editing process, you're ultimately judging the initial piece of work and you're
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judging and judging and judging.
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How much of your time do you spend hating your work?
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How much time do you spend in gratitude, impressed, thankful, or how good the work
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that you will put together is?
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I spend almost all the time in a place that's intermediate between those but leaning toward
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I spend almost all the time in a state of optimism that this thing that I have, I like
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quite a bit and I can make it better and better and better with every time I go through it.
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So I spend most of my time in a state of optimism.
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I think I personally oscillate much more aggressively between those two where I wouldn't
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be able to find the average.
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Marvin Minsky from MIT had this advice, I guess, to what it takes to be successful in
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science and research is to hate everything you do.
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You've ever done in the past.
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I mean, at least he was speaking about himself that the key to his success was to hate everything
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I have a little Marvin Minsky there in me too to always be exceptionally self critical,
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almost self critical about the work, but grateful for the chance to be able to do the work.
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Makes perfect sense.
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But each one of us have to strike a certain kind of balance.
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But back to the destruction of human civilization.
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If humans destroy ourselves in the next 100 years, what will be the most likely source,
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the most likely reason that we destroy ourselves?
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Well, let's see, 100 years, it's hard for me to comfortably predict out that far.
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And it's something to give a lot more thought to, I think, than normal folks simply because
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I am a science fiction writer.
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And I feel with the acceleration of technological progress, it's really hard to foresee out more
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than just a few decades.
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I mean, comparing today's world to that of 1921, where we are right now, a century later,
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it would have been so unforeseeable.
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And I just don't know what's going to happen, particularly with exponential technologies.
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I mean, our intuitions reliably defeat ourselves with exponential technologies like computing
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and synthetic biology and how we might destroy ourselves in the 100 year time frame might
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have everything to do with breakthroughs and nanotechnology 40 years from now and then
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how rapidly those breakthroughs accelerate.
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But in the nearer term than I'm comfortable predicting, let's say, 30 years, I would say
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the most likely route to self destruction would be synthetic biology.
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And I always say that with the gigantic caveat and very important one that I find, and I'll
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abbreviate synthetic biology to SinBio just to save us some syllables.
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I believe SinBio offers us simply stunning promise that we would be fools to deny ourselves.
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So I'm not an anti SinBio person by any stretch.
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I mean, SinBio has unbelievable odds of helping us beat cancer, helping us rescue the environment,
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helping us do things that we would currently find imponderable.
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So it's electrifying the field.
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But in the wrong hands, those hands either being incompetent or being malevolent.
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In the wrong hands, synthetic biology to me has a much, much greater odds of leading
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to our self destruction than something running amok with super AI, which I believe is a real
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possibility and what we need to be concerned about.
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But in the 30 year time frame, I think it's a lesser one or nuclear weapons or anything
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else that I can think of.
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Can you explain that a little bit further?
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So your concern is on the manmade versus the natural side of the pandemic front here.
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So we humans engineering pathogens, engineering viruses is the concern here.
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And maybe how do you see the possible trajectory is happening here in terms of, is it malevolent
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or is it accidents, oops, little mistakes or unintended consequences of particular actions
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that are ultimately lead to unexpected mistakes?
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Well, both of them are a danger.
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And I think the question of which is more likely has to do with two things.
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One, do we take a lot of methodical, affordable, foresighted steps that we are absolutely
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capable of taking right now to first stall the risk of a bad actor infecting us with
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something that could have annihilating impacts?
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And in the episode you referenced with Sam, we talked a great deal about that.
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So do we take those steps?
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And if we take those steps, I think the danger of malevolent rogue actors doing a sin with
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sin bio could plummet.
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But it's always a question of if and we have a bad, bad and very long track record of hitting
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this news bar after different natural pandemics have attacked us.
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So that's variable number one.
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Variable number two is how much experimentation and pathogen development do we as a society
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decide is acceptable in the realms of academia, government or private industry?
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And if we decide as a society that it's perfectly okay for people with varying research agendas
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to create pathogens that if released could wipe out humanity, if we think that's fine.
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And if that kind of work starts happening in one lab, five labs, 50 labs, 500 labs in
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one country, then 10 countries, then 70 countries or whatever, that risk of a boo boo starts
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rising astronomically.
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And this won't be a spoiler alert based on the way that I presented those two things.
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But I think it's unbelievably important to manage both of those risks.
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The easier one to manage, although it wouldn't be simple by any stretch because it would
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have to be something that all nations agree on.
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But the easier risk to manage is that of, hey, guys, let's not develop pathogens that
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if they escaped from a lab could annihilate us.
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There's no line of research that justifies that.
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And in my view, I mean, that's the point of perspective we'd need to have.
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We'd have to collectively agree that there's no line of research that justifies that.
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The reason why I believe that would be a highly rational conclusion is even the highest level
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of biosafety lab in the world, biosafety level four.
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And there are not a lot of BSL four labs in the world.
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Things can have leaked out of BSL four labs.
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And some of the work that's been done with potentially annihilating pathogens, which
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we can talk about, is actually done at BSL three.
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And so fundamentally, any lab can leak.
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We have proven ourselves to be incapable of creating a lab that is utterly impervious
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So why in the world would we create something where, if God forbid, it leaked, could annihilate
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And by the way, almost all of the measures that are taken in biosafety level, anything
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labs, are designed to prevent accidental leaks.
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What happens if you have a malevolent insider and we could talk about the psychology and
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the motivations of what would make a malevolent insider who wants to release something annihilating
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I'm sure that we will.
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But what if you have a malevolent insider?
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Virtually none of the standards that go into biosafety level, one, two, three, and four,
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are about preventing somebody hijacking the process.
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I mean, some of them are, but they're mainly designed against accidents.
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They're imperfect against accidents.
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And if this kind of work starts happening in lots and lots of labs, with every lab you
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add, the odds of there being a malevolent insider naturally increase arithmetically as
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the number of labs goes up.
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Now on the front of somebody outside of a government academic or scientific, traditional
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government academic scientific environment, creating something malevolent, again, there's
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protections that we can take both at the level of syn bio architecture, the hardening entire
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syn bio ecosystem against terrible things being made that we don't want to have out there
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by rogue actors, to early detection, to lots and lots of other things that we can do to
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dramatically mitigate that risk.
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And I think we do both of those things, decide that, no, we're not going to experimentally
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make annihilating pathogens in leaky labs and be, yes, we are going to take countermeasures
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that are going to cost a fraction of our annual defense budget to preclude their creation.
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And I think both risks get managed down.
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But if you take one set of precautions and not the other, then the thing that you have
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not taken precautions against immediately becomes the more likely outcome.
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So can we talk about this kind of research and what's actually done and what are the
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positives and negatives of it?
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So if we look again, a function research and the kind of stuff that's happening in level
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three and level four BSL labs, what's the whole idea here?
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Is it trying to engineer viruses to understand how they behave?
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You want to understand the dangerous ones.
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So that would be the logic behind doing it.
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And so gain a function can mean a lot of different things.
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Viewed through a certain lens, gained a function research could be what you do when you create
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GMOs, when you create hardy strains of corn that are resistant to pesticides.
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I mean, you could view that as gain a function.
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So I'm going to refer to gain a function in a relatively narrow sense, which is actually
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the sense that the term is usually used, which is in some way magnifying capabilities of
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microorganisms to make them more dangerous, whether it's more transmissible or more deadly.
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And in that line of research, I'll use an example from 2011 because it's very illustrative
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and it's also very chilling.
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Back in 2011, two separate labs independently of one another, I assume there was some kind
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of communication between them, but there were basically independent projects, one in Holland
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and one in Wisconsin, did gain a function research on something called H5N1 flu.
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H5N1 is something that, at least on a lethality basis, makes COVID look like a kitten.
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COVID, according to the World Health Organization, has a case fatality rate somewhere between
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half a percent and one percent.
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H5N1 is closer to 60%, 6.0.
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And so that's actually even slightly more lethal than Ebola.
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It's a very, very, very scary pathogen.
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The good news about H5N1 is that it is barely, barely contagious.
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But I believe it is in no way contagious human to human.
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It requires very, very, very deep contact with birds, in most cases, chickens.
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And so if you're a chicken farmer and you spend an enormous amount of time around them
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and perhaps you get into situations in which you get a break in your skin and you're interacting
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intensely with foul who, as it turns out, have H5N1, that's when the jump comes.
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But there's no airborne transmission that we're aware of human to human.
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Not that it just doesn't exist.
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I think the World Health Organization did a relentless survey of the number of H5N1 cases.
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I think they do it every year.
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I saw one 10 year series where I think it was like 500 fatalities over the course of
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And that's a drop in the bucket, a kind of fun fact.
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I believe the typical lethality from lightning over 10 years is 70,000 deaths.
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So we think getting struck by lightning, pretty low risk, H5N1 much, much lower than that.
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What happened in these experiments is the experimenters in both cases set out to make
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H5N1 that would be contagious, that could create airborne transmission.
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And so they basically passed it, I think in both cases, they passed it through a large
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number of ferrets.
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And so this wasn't like CRISPR, there wasn't even in CRISPR back in those days.
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This was relatively straightforward selecting for a particular outcome.
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And after guiding the path and passing them through, again, I believe it was a series
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of ferrets, they did in fact come up with a version of H5N1 that is capable of airborne
link |
Now, they didn't unleash it into the world.
link |
They didn't inject it into humans to see what would happen.
link |
And so for those two reasons, we don't really know how contagious it might have been.
link |
But if it was as contagious as COVID, that could be a civilization threatening pathogen.
link |
And why would you do it?
link |
Well, the people who did it were good guys, they were virologists.
link |
I believe their agenda as they explained it was, much as you said, let's figure out what
link |
a worst case scenario might look like so we can understand it better.
link |
But my understanding is in both cases it was done in BSL3 labs.
link |
And so potential of leak, significantly nonzero, hopefully way below 1%, but significantly
link |
And when you look at the consequences of an escape in terms of human lives, destruction
link |
of a large portion of the economy, et cetera, and you do an expected value calculation on
link |
whatever fraction of 1% that was, you would come up with a staggering cost, staggering
link |
expected cost for this work.
link |
So it should never have been carried out.
link |
Now you might make an argument.
link |
If you said, if you believed that H5N1 in nature is on an inevitable path to airborne transmission,
link |
and it's only going to be a small number of years, A, and B, if it makes that transition,
link |
there is one set of changes to its metabolic pathways and its genomic code and so forth.
link |
One that we have discovered.
link |
So it is going to go from point A, which is where it is right now, to point B. We have
link |
reliably engineered point B. That is the destination.
link |
And we need to start fighting that right now because this is five years or less away.
link |
Now that'd be a very different world.
link |
That'd be like spotting an asteroid that's coming toward the Earth and is five years
link |
And yes, you marshal everything you can to resist that.
link |
But there's two problems with that perspective.
link |
The first is, and however many thousands of generations that humans have been inhabiting
link |
this planet, there has never been a transmissible form of H5N1.
link |
And influenza has been around for a very long time.
link |
So there is no case for inevitability of this kind of a jump to airborne transmission.
link |
So we're not an afraid train to that outcome.
link |
And if there was inevitability around that, it's not like there's just one set of genetic
link |
code that would get there.
link |
There's all kinds of different mutations that could conceivably result in that kind
link |
of an outcome, unbelievable diversity of mutations.
link |
And so we're not actually creating something we're inevitably going to face.
link |
But we are creating something, we are creating a very powerful and unbelievably negative
link |
card and injecting in the deck that nature never put into the deck.
link |
So in that case, I just don't see any moral or scientific justification for that kind
link |
And interestingly, there was quite a bit of excitement and concern about this when the
link |
One of the teams was going to publish their results in science, the other in nature.
link |
And there were a lot of editorials and a lot of scientists are saying this is crazy.
link |
And publication of those papers did get suspended.
link |
And not long after that, there was a pause put on US government funding, NIH funding
link |
on gain of function research.
link |
But both of those speed bumps were ultimately removed.
link |
Those papers did ultimately get published and that pause on funding ceased long ago.
link |
And in fact, those two very projects, my understanding, has resumed their funding, got their government
link |
I don't know why a Dutch project is getting NIH funding, but whatever, about a year and
link |
So as far as the US government and regulators are concerned, it's all systems go for gain
link |
of function at this point, which I find very troubling.
link |
Now, I'm a little bit of an outsider from this field, but it has echoes of the same
link |
kind of problem I see in the AI world with autonomous weapons systems.
link |
Nobody in my colleagues, my colleagues, friends, as far as I can tell people in the AI community
link |
are not really talking about autonomous weapons systems as now US and China have full steam
link |
ahead on the development of both.
link |
And that seems to be a similar kind of thing on gain of function.
link |
I have friends in the biology space and they don't want to talk about gain of function publicly.
link |
And that makes me very uncomfortable from an outsider perspective in terms of gain of
link |
It makes me very uncomfortable from the insider perspective on autonomous weapons systems.
link |
I'm not sure how to communicate exactly about autonomous weapons systems and I certainly
link |
don't know how to communicate effectively about gain of function.
link |
What is the right path forward here?
link |
Did we seize all gain of function research?
link |
Is that really the solution here?
link |
Well, again, I'm going to use gain of function in the relatively narrow context of what we're
link |
You could say almost anything that you do to make biology more effective is gain of function.
link |
So within the narrow confines of what we're discussing, I think it would be easy enough
link |
for level headed people in all of the countries, level headed governmental people in all the
link |
countries that realistically could support such a program to agree, we don't want this
link |
to happen because all labs leak.
link |
I mean, an example that I used in the piece I did with Sam Harris as well is the anthrax
link |
attacks in the United States in 2001.
link |
Talk about an example of the least likely lab leaking into the least likely place.
link |
This was shortly after 9.11, folks, you don't remember it, and it was a very, very lethal
link |
strand of anthrax that, as it turned out, based on the forensic genomic work that was
link |
done and so forth, absolutely leaked from a high security US army lab.
link |
Probably the one at Fort Detrick in Maryland.
link |
It might have been another one, but who cares?
link |
It absolutely leaked from a high security US army lab.
link |
And where did it leak to?
link |
This highly dangerous substance that was kept under lock and key by a very security minded
link |
Well, it leaked to places including the Senate Majority Leader's Office, Tom Dashel's office.
link |
They was Senator Leahy's office, certain publications including Bizarrely, the National
link |
But let's go to the Senate Majority Leader's Office.
link |
It is hard to imagine a more security minded country than the United States two weeks after
link |
I mean, it doesn't get more security minded than that.
link |
And it's also hard to imagine a more security capable organization than the United States
link |
We can joke all we want about inefficiencies in the military and $24,000 wrenches and so
link |
forth, but pretty capable when it comes to that.
link |
Despite that level of focus and concern and competence, just days after the 9.11 attack,
link |
something comes from the inside of our military and industrial compacts and ends up in the
link |
office of someone I believe is Senate Majority Leader, somewhere in the line of presidential
link |
It tells us everything can leak.
link |
So again, think of a level headed conversation between powerful leaders in a diversity of
link |
countries thinking through, like I can imagine a very simple PowerPoint revealing, you know,
link |
just discussing briefly things like the anthrax leak, things like this foot and mouth disease
link |
outbreak or leaking that came out of a BSL four level lab in the UK, several other things,
link |
talking about the utter virulence that could result from gain of function and say, folks,
link |
can we agree that this just shouldn't happen?
link |
I mean, if we were able to agree on the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which we were by a
link |
weapons convention, which we did agree on, we the world, for the most part, I believe
link |
agreement could be found there.
link |
But it's going to take people in leadership of a couple of very powerful countries to
link |
get to consensus amongst them and then to decide we're going to get everybody together
link |
and browbeat them into banning this stuff.
link |
Now, that doesn't make it entirely impossible that somebody might do this.
link |
But in well regulated, you know, carefully watched over fiduciary environments, like
link |
federally funded academic research, anything going on in the government itself, you know,
link |
companies going on in companies that have investors who don't want to go to jail for
link |
the rest of their lives.
link |
I think that would have a major, major dampening impact on it.
link |
But there is a particular possible catalyst in this time we live in, which is for really
link |
kind of raising the question of gain of function research for the application of virus, making
link |
viruses more dangerous, is the question of whether COVID leaked from a lab, sort of not
link |
even answering that question, but even asking that question.
link |
It seems like a very important question to ask to catalyze the conversation about whether
link |
we should be doing gain of function research.
link |
I mean, from a high level, why do you think people, even colleagues of mine are not comfortable
link |
asking that question?
link |
And two, do you think that the answer could be that it did leak from a lab?
link |
I think the mere possibility that it did leak from a lab is evidence enough, again, for
link |
the hypothetical, rational national leaders watching this simple PowerPoint, if you could
link |
put the possibility at one percent, and you look at the unbelievable destructive power
link |
that COVID had, that should be an overwhelmingly powerful argument for excluding it.
link |
Now, as to whether or not that was a leak, some very, very level, I don't know enough
link |
about all of the factors in the Bayesian analysis and so forth that has gone into people making
link |
the pro argument of that.
link |
So I don't pretend to be an expert on that, and I don't have a point of view.
link |
I just don't know.
link |
But what we can say is it is entirely possible for a couple of reasons.
link |
One is that there is a BSL4 lab in Wuhan, the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
link |
I believe it's the only BSL4 in China, I could be wrong about that.
link |
But it definitely had a history that alarmed very sophisticated US diplomats and others
link |
who were in contact with the lab and were aware of what it was doing long before COVID
link |
And so there are diplomatic cables that have been declassified.
link |
I believe one sophisticated scientist or other observer said that WIV is a ticking time bomb.
link |
And I believe it's also been pretty reasonably established that coronaviruses were a topic
link |
of great interest at WIV.
link |
SARS obviously came out of China, and that's a coronavirus that would make an enormous
link |
amount of sense for it to be studied there.
link |
And there is so much opacity about what happened in the early days and weeks after the outbreak
link |
that's basically been imposed by the Chinese government that we just don't know.
link |
So it feels like a substantially or greater than 1% possibility to me looking at it from
link |
And that's something that one could imagine.
link |
Now we're going to the realm of thought experiment, not me decreeing this is what happened, but
link |
if they're studying coronavirus at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and there is this
link |
precedent of gain of function research that's been done on something that is remarkably
link |
uncontangiously human, whereas we know coronavirus is contagious to humans, I could definitely
link |
and there is this global consensus.
link |
Certainly was the case two or three years ago when this work might have started.
link |
This seems to be this global consensus that gain of function is fine.
link |
The US paused funding for a little while, but paused funding.
link |
They never said private actors couldn't do it.
link |
It was just a pause of NIH funding.
link |
And then that pause was lifted.
link |
So again, none of this is irrational.
link |
You could certainly see the folks at WIV saying gain of function, interesting vector, coronavirus
link |
unlike H5N1, very contagious.
link |
We are in a nation that has had terrible run ins with coronavirus.
link |
Why don't we do a little gain of function on this?
link |
And then like all labs at all levels, one can imagine this lab leaking.
link |
So it's not an impossibility and very, very level headed people have said that who have
link |
looked at it much more deeply do believe in that outcome.
link |
Why is it such a threat to power, the idea they'll leak from a lab?
link |
Why is it so threatening?
link |
I don't maybe understand this point exactly.
link |
Is it just that as governments and especially the Chinese government is really afraid of
link |
admitting mistakes that everybody makes?
link |
So this is a horrible, like Chernobyl is a good example.
link |
I come from the Soviet Union.
link |
I mean, well, major mistakes were made in Chernobyl.
link |
I would argue for a lab leak to happen, the scale of the mistake is much smaller.
link |
The depth and the breadth of a rot in bureaucracy that led to Chernobyl is much bigger than
link |
anything that could lead to a lab leak because it could literally just be, I mean, I'm sure
link |
there's security, very careful security procedures even in level three labs, but I imagine maybe
link |
you can correct me.
link |
All it takes is the incompetence of a small number of individuals, one individual on a
link |
particular couple of weeks, three weeks period as opposed to a multi year bureaucratic failure
link |
of the entire government.
link |
Well, certainly the magnitude of mistakes and compounding mistakes that went into Chernobyl
link |
was far, far, far greater.
link |
But the consequence of COVID outweighs that the consequence of Chernobyl to a tremendous
link |
degree, and I think that particularly authoritarian governments are unbelievably reluctant to
link |
admit to any fallibility whatsoever.
link |
There's a long, long history of that across dozens and dozens of authoritarian governments,
link |
and to be transparent, again, this is in the hypothetical world in which this was a leak,
link |
which again, I don't personally have enough sophistication to have an opinion on the likelihood.
link |
But in the hypothetical world in which it was a leak, the global reaction and the amount
link |
of global animus and the amount of the decline in global respect that would happen toward
link |
China because every country suffered massively from this, unbelievable damages in terms of
link |
human lives and economic activity disrupted.
link |
The world would in some way present China with that bill.
link |
And when you take on top of that the natural disinclination for any authoritarian government
link |
to admit any fallibility and tolerate the possibility of any fallibility whatsoever,
link |
and you look at the relative opacity, even though they let a World Health Organization
link |
group in a couple of months ago to run around, they didn't give that who group anywhere
link |
near the level of access it would be necessary to definitively say X happened versus Y.
link |
The level of opacity that surrounds those opening weeks and months of COVID in China,
link |
we just don't know.
link |
If you were to look back at 2020 and maybe brought it out to future pandemics that could
link |
be much more dangerous, what kind of response, how do we fail in a response, and how could
link |
So the gain of function research is discussing the question of we should not be creating
link |
viruses that are both exceptionally contagious and exceptionally deadly to humans.
link |
But if it does happen, perhaps the natural evolution, natural mutation, is there interesting
link |
technological responses on the testing side, on the vaccine development side, on the collection
link |
of data, or on the basic sort of policy response side, or the sociological, the psychological
link |
Yeah, there's all kinds of things, and most of what I've thought about and written about
link |
and again discussed in that long bit with Sam is dual use.
link |
So most of the countermeasures that I've been thinking about and advocating for would be
link |
every bit as effective against zoonotic disease and natural pandemic of some sort as an artificial
link |
The risk of an artificial one, even the near term risk of an artificial one, ups the urgency
link |
around these measures immensely, but most of them would be broadly applicable.
link |
And so I think the first thing that we really want to do on a global scale is have a far,
link |
far more robust and globally transparent system of detection.
link |
And that can happen on a number of levels.
link |
The most obvious one is just in the blood of people who come into clinics exhibiting
link |
And we are certainly at a point now where at with relatively minimal investment, we
link |
could develop in clinic diagnostics that would be unbelievably effective at pinpointing what's
link |
going on in almost any disease when somebody walks into a doctor's office or a clinic.
link |
And better than that, this is a little bit further off, but it wouldn't cost tens of
link |
billions in research dollars, it would be a relatively modest and affordable budget
link |
in relation to the threat at home diagnostics that can really, really pinpoint particularly
link |
with respiratory infections because that is generally almost universally the mechanism
link |
of transmission for any serious pandemic.
link |
So somebody has a respiratory infection, is it one of the significantly large handful
link |
of rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, and other things that cause common cold?
link |
Or is it influenza?
link |
If it's influenza, is it influenza A versus B?
link |
Or is it a small handful of other more exotic but nonetheless sort of common respiratory
link |
infections that are out there?
link |
Having a diagnostic panel to pinpoint all of that stuff, that's something that's well
link |
within our capabilities.
link |
That's much less a lift than creating mRNA vaccines, which obviously we proved capable
link |
of when we put our minds to it.
link |
So do that on a global basis.
link |
And I don't think that's irrational because the best prototype for this that I'm aware
link |
of isn't currently rolling out in Atherton, California, or Fairfield County, Connecticut,
link |
or some other wealthy place.
link |
The best prototype that I'm aware of this is rolling out right now in Nigeria.
link |
And it's a project that came out of the Broad Institute, which is, as I'm sure you know,
link |
but some listeners may not, is kind of like an academic joint venture between Harvard
link |
The program is called Sentinel.
link |
And their objective is, and their plan, and it's a very well conceived plan, a methodical
link |
plan, is to do just that in areas of Nigeria that are particularly vulnerable to zoonotic
link |
diseases, making the jump from animals to humans.
link |
But also there's just an unbelievable public health benefit from that.
link |
And it's sort of a three tier system where clinicians in the field could very rapidly
link |
determine, do you have one of the infections of acute interest here, either because it's
link |
very common in this region, so we want to diagnose as many things as we can at the front
link |
line, or because it's uncommon but unbelievably threatening like Ebola.
link |
So front line worker can make that determination very, very rapidly.
link |
If it comes up as a we don't know, they bump it up to a level that's more like at a fully
link |
configured doctor's office or local hospital.
link |
And if it's still at a we don't know, it gets bumped up to a national level.
link |
And that gets bumped very, very rapidly.
link |
So if this can be done in Nigeria, and it seems that it can be, there shouldn't be any inhibition
link |
for it to happen in most other places.
link |
And it should be affordable from a budgetary standpoint.
link |
And based on Sentinel's budget and adjusting things for things like very different costs
link |
of living, larger population, et cetera, I did a back of the envelope calculation that
link |
doing something like Sentinel in the US would be in the low billions of dollars.
link |
And wealthy countries, middle income countries can't afford such a thing.
link |
Lower income countries should certainly be helped with that, but start with that level
link |
And layer on top of that other interesting things like monitoring search engine traffic,
link |
search engine queries for evidence that strange clusters of symptoms are starting to rise
link |
in different places.
link |
There's been a lot of work done with that.
link |
Most of it kind of academic and experimental, but some of it has been powerful enough to
link |
suggest that this could be a very powerful early warning system.
link |
There's a guy named Bill Lampos at University College London who basically did a very rigorous
link |
analysis that showed that symptom searches reliably predicted COVID outbreaks in the
link |
early days of the pandemic in given countries by as much as 16 days before the evidence
link |
started to crew at a public health level.
link |
16 days of forewarning can be monumentally important in the early days of an outbreak.
link |
And this is a very, very talented, but nonetheless very resource constrained academic project.
link |
Even if that was something that was done with a NORAD like budget.
link |
So I mean, starting with detection, that's something we could do radically, radically
link |
So aggregating multiple data sources in order to create something, I mean, this is really
link |
exciting to me, the possibility that I've heard inklings of, of creating almost like
link |
a weather map of pathogens, like basically aggregating all of these data sources, scaling
link |
many orders of magnitude up at home testing and all kinds of testing that doesn't just
link |
try to test for the particular pathogen of worry now, but everything like a full spectrum
link |
of things that could be dangerous to the human body and thereby be able to create these maps
link |
like that are dynamically updated on an hourly basis of the, of how viruses travel throughout
link |
And so you can respond like you can then integrate just like you do when you check your weather
link |
map and it's raining or not.
link |
Of course not perfect, but it's very good predictor whether it's going to rain or not
link |
and use that to then make decisions about your own life, ultimately give the power information
link |
to individuals to respond.
link |
And if it's a super dangerous, like if it's acid rain versus regular rain, you might want
link |
to really stay inside as opposed to risking it.
link |
And that just like you said, if I think it's not very expensive relative to all the things
link |
that we do in this world, but it does require bold leadership.
link |
And there's another dark thing which really is bothering me about 2020, which it requires
link |
is it requires trust in institutions to carry out these kinds of programs and requires trust
link |
in science and engineers and sort of centralized organizations that would operate at scale here.
link |
And much of that trust has been, at least in the United States, diminished.
link |
It feels like I'm not exactly sure where to place the blame, but I do place quite a bit
link |
of the blame into the scientific community.
link |
And again, my fellow colleagues in speaking down to people at times, speaking from authority,
link |
it sounded like it dismissed the basic human experience or the basic common humanity of
link |
people in a way to like, it almost sounded like there's an agenda that's hidden behind
link |
the words the scientists spoke, like they're trying to, in a self preserving way, control
link |
the population or something like that.
link |
I don't think any of that is true from the majority of the scientific community, but
link |
it sounded that way.
link |
And so the trust began to diminish.
link |
I'm not sure how to fix that, except to be more authentic, be more real, acknowledge
link |
the uncertainties under which we operate, acknowledge the mistakes that scientists make, that institutions
link |
make, the leak from the lab is a perfect example.
link |
We have imperfect systems that make all the progress you see in the world, and that being
link |
honest about that imperfection, I think, is essential for forming trust, but I don't know
link |
what to make of it.
link |
It's been deeply disappointing because I do think, just like you mentioned, the solutions
link |
require people to trust the institutions with their data.
link |
I think part of the problem is, it seems to me as an outsider that there was a bizarre
link |
unwillingness on the part of the CDC and other institutions to admit to, to frame and to
link |
contextualize uncertainty.
link |
Maybe they had a patronizing idea that these people need to be told, and when they're told,
link |
they need to be told with authority and a level of definitiveness and certitude that
link |
doesn't actually exist.
link |
And so when they whipsaw on recommendations like what you should do about masks, when
link |
the CDC is at the very beginning of the pandemic saying, masks don't do anything, don't wear
link |
them, when the real driver for that was, we don't want these clowns going out and depleting
link |
Amazon of masks because they may be needed in medical settings, and we just don't know
link |
And I think a message that actually respected people and said, this is why we're asking
link |
you not to do masks yet, and there's more to be seen, would be less whipsawing and would
link |
bring people, like they feel more like they're part of the conversation and they're being
link |
treated like adults than saying one day definitively masks suck, and then X days later saying,
link |
nope, damn it, wear masks.
link |
And so I think framing things in terms of the probabilities, which most people are easy
link |
A more recent example, which I just thought was batty, was suspending the Johnson and
link |
Johnson vaccine for a very low single digit number of days in the United States based
link |
on the fact that I believe there had been seven ish clotting incidents in roughly seven
link |
million people who had had the vaccine administered, I believe one of which resulted in a fatality.
link |
And there was definitely suggestive data that indicated that there was a relationship.
link |
This wasn't just coincidental because I think all of the clotting incidents happened in
link |
women as opposed to men and kind of clustered in a certain age group.
link |
But does that call for shutting off the vaccine, or does it call for leveling with the American
link |
public and saying, we've had one fatality out of seven million?
link |
This is, let's just assume, substantially less than the likelihood of getting struck
link |
Based on that information, and we're going to keep you posted because you can trust
link |
us to keep you posted, based on that information, please decide whether you're comfortable with
link |
a Johnson and Johnson vaccine.
link |
That would have been one response, and I think people would have been able to parse the simple
link |
bits of data and make their own judgment.
link |
By turning it off, all of a sudden, there's this dramatic signal to people who don't read
link |
all 900 words in the New York Times piece that explains why it's being turned off, but
link |
just see the headline, which is a majority of people.
link |
There's a sudden, oh my god, yikes, vaccine being shut off.
link |
And then all the people who sat on the fence or are sitting on the fence about whether
link |
or not they trust vaccines, that is going to push an incalculable number of people.
link |
That's going to be the last straw.
link |
For we don't know how many hundreds of thousands or more likely millions of people to say,
link |
okay, tipping point here, I'm going to trust these vaccines.
link |
So by pausing that for whatever it was, 10 or 12 days, and then flipping the switch
link |
as everybody who knew much about the situation knew was inevitable.
link |
By flipping the on switch 12 days later, you're conveying certitude J&J bad to certitude
link |
J&J good in a period of just a few days, and people just feel whipsawed, and they're not
link |
part of the analysis.
link |
But it's not just the whipsawing.
link |
And I think about this quite a bit.
link |
I don't think I have good answers.
link |
It's something about the way the communication actually happens.
link |
Just I don't know what it is about Anthony Fauci, for example, but I don't trust him.
link |
And I think that has to do, I mean, he has an incredible background.
link |
I'm sure he's a brilliant scientist and researcher.
link |
I'm sure he's also a great like inside the room policymaker and deliberator and so on.
link |
But you know, what makes a great leader is something about that thing that you can't
link |
quite describe, but being a communicator that you know you can trust that there's an authenticity
link |
And I'm not sure maybe I'm being a bit too judgmental, but I'm a huge fan of a lot of
link |
great leaders throughout history.
link |
They've communicated exceptionally well in the way that Fauci does not.
link |
And I think about that.
link |
I think about what has affected science communication.
link |
So great leaders throughout history did not necessarily need to be great science communicators.
link |
Their leadership was in other domains, but when you're fighting the virus, you also have
link |
to be a great science communicator.
link |
You have to be able to communicate on certainties, you have to be able to communicate something
link |
like a vaccine that you're allowing inside your body into the messiness, into the complexity
link |
of the biology system, that if we're being honest, it's so complex, we'll never be able
link |
to really understand.
link |
We can only desperately hope that science can give us sort of a high likelihood that
link |
there's no short term negative consequences and that kind of intuition about long term
link |
negative consequences and doing our best in this battle against trillions of things that
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are trying to kill us.
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Being an effective communicator in that space is very difficult, but I think about what
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it takes because I think there should be more science communicators that are effective
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at that kind of thing.
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Let me ask you about something that's sort of more in the AI space that I think about
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that kind of goes along this thread that you've spoken about democratizing the technology
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that could destroy human civilization is from amazing work from DeepMind AlphaFold2, which
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achieved incredible performance on the protein folding problem, single protein folding problem.
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Do you think about the use of AI in the syn biospace of, I think the gain of function
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in the virus space research that you refer to, I think is natural mutations and sort
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of aggressively mutating the virus until you get one that has this both contagious and
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deadly, but what about then using AI to through simulation be able to compute deadly viruses
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or any kind of biological systems?
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Is this something you're worried about or again, is this something you're more excited
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I think computational biology is unbelievably exciting and promising field and I think when
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you're doing things in silica as opposed to in vivo, the dangers plummet.
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You don't have a critter that can leak from a leaky lab.
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So I don't see any problem with that except I do worry about the data security dimension
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of it because if you were doing really, really interesting in silica gain a function research
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and you hit upon through a level sophistication, we don't currently have but synthetic biology
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is an exponential technology so capabilities that are utterly out of reach today will be
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attainable in five or six years.
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I think if you conjured up worst case genomes of viruses that don't exist in vivo anywhere,
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they're just in the computer space but like, hey guys, this is a genetic sequence that
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would end the world, let's say.
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Then you have to worry about the utter hackability of every computer network we can imagine.
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Data leaks from the least likely places on the grandest possible scales have happened
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and continue to happen and will probably always continue to happen and so that would be the
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danger of doing the work in silica.
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If you end up with a list of like, well, these are things we never want to see.
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That list leaks and after the passage of some time certainly couldn't be done today but
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after the passage of some time, lots and lots of people in academic labs going all the way
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down to the high school level are in a position to make it overly simplistic, hit print on
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a genome and have the virus bearing that genome pop out on the other end and you got
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something to worry about but in general computational biology I think is incredibly important particularly
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because the crushing majority of work that people are doing with the protein folding
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problem and other things are about creating therapeutics, about creating things that will
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help us live better, live longer, thrive, be a bit more well and so forth.
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The protein folding problem is a monstrous computational challenge that we seem to make
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just the most glacial progress on for years and years but I think there's a biannual
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competition I think for which people tackle the protein folding problem and DeepMind's
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entrant both two years ago like in 2018 and 2020 ruled the field and so protein folding
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is an unbelievably important thing if you want to start thinking about therapeutics
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because it's the folding of the protein that tells us where the channels and the receptors
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and everything else are on that protein and it's from that precise model, if we can get
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to a precise model, that you can start barraging it again in silicone with thousands, tens
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of thousands, millions of potential therapeutics and see what resolves the problems, the shortcomings
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that a mischapen protein, for instance somebody with a cystic fibrosis, how might we treat
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So I see nothing but good in that.
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Well, let me ask you about fear and hope in this world.
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I tend to believe that in terms of competence and malevolence, that people who are maybe
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it's in my interactions, I tend to see that first of all I believe that most people are
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good and want to do good and are just better at doing good and more inclined to do good
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on this world and more than that, people who are malevolent are usually incompetent at
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building technology.
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So I've seen this in my life that people who are exceptionally good at stuff, no matter
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what the stuff is, tend to maybe they discover joy in life in a way that gives them fulfillment
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and thereby does not result in them wanting to destroy the world.
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So the better you are at stuff, whether that's building nuclear weapons or plumbing, doesn't
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matter, the less likely you are to destroy the world.
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So in that sense, with many technologies, AI especially, I always think that the malevolent
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would be far outnumbered by the ultra competent and in that sense, the defenses will always
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be stronger than the offense in terms of the people trying to destroy the world.
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Now, there's a few spaces where that might not be the case and that's an interesting
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conversation where there's one person who's not very competent can destroy the whole world.
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Perhaps symbio is one such space because of the exponential effects of the technology.
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I tend to believe AI is not one of those such spaces, but do you share this kind of view
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that the ultra competent are usually also the good?
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I absolutely share that and that gives me a great deal of optimism that we will be able
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to short circuit the threat that malevolence and bio could pose to us.
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But we need to start creating those defensive systems or defensive layers, one of which
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we talked about far, far, far better surveillance in order to prevail.
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So the good guys will almost inevitably outsmart and definitely outnumber the bad guys in most
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sort of smackdowns that we can imagine.
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But the good guys aren't going to be able to exert their advantages unless they have
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the imagination necessary to think about what the worst possible thing can be done by somebody
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whose own psychology is completely alien to their own.
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So that's a tricky, tricky thing to solve for.
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Now in terms of whether the asymmetric power that a bad guy might have in the face of the
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overwhelming numerical advantage and competence advantage that the good guys have, unfortunately
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I look at something like mass shootings as an example.
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I'm sure the guy who was responsible for the Vegas shooting or the Orlando shooting or
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any other shooting that we can imagine didn't know a whole lot about ballistics.
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And the number of good guy citizens in the United States with guns compared to bad guy
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citizens, I'm sure, is a crushingly overwhelming, the high ratio in favor of the good guys.
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But that doesn't make it possible for us to stop mass shootings.
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An example is Fort Hood, 45,000 trained soldiers on that base.
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But there have been two mass shootings there.
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And so there is an asymmetry when you have powerful and lethal technology that gets so
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democratized and so proliferated in tools that are very, very easy to use, even by a
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When those tools get really easy to use by a knucklehead and they're really widespread,
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it becomes very, very hard to defend against all instances of usage.
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Now the good news, quote unquote, about mass shootings, if there is any and there is some,
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is even the most brutal and carefully planning and well armed mass shooter can only take
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And the same is true, there's been four instances that I'm aware of of commercial pilots committing
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suicide by doubting their planes and taking all their passengers with them.
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These weren't Boeing engineers, you know, but like an army of Boeing engineers ultimately
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were not capable of preventing that.
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But even in their case, and I'm actually not counting 911 and that 911 is a different
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category in my mind, these are just personally suicidal pilots.
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In those cases, they only have a plain load of people that they're able to take with them.
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If we imagine a highly plausible and imaginable future in which symbiotools that are amoral,
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that could be used for good or for ill, start embodying unbelievable sophistication and
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genius in the tool, in the easier and easier and easier to make tool, all those thousands,
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tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of scientist years start getting embodied in
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something that, you know, maybe as simple as hitting a print button, then that good guy
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technology can be hijacked by a bad person and used in a very asymmetric way.
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Yeah, I think what happens though, as you go to the high school student from the current,
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like very specific set of labs that are able to do it, as it becomes more and more democratized,
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as it becomes easier and easier to do this kind of large scale damage with an engineered
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virus, the more and more there will be engineering of defenses against these systems, essentially
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some of the things we talked about in terms of testing, in terms of collection of data,
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but also in terms of scale contact tracing or also engineering of vaccines in a matter
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of days, maybe hours, maybe minutes.
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I feel like the defenses, that's what human species seems to do, is we keep hitting the
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snooze button until there's a storm on the horizon heading towards us, then we start
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to quickly build up the defenses or the response that's proportional to the scale of the storm.
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Of course, again, certain kinds of exponential threats require us to build up the defenses
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way earlier than we usually do, and that's, I guess, the question, but I ultimately am
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hopeful that the natural process of hitting the snooze button until the deadline is right
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in front of us will work out for quite a long time for us humans.
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I mean, that's why I'm fundamentally, I mean, I sound like it thus far, but I'm fundamentally
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very, very optimistic about our ability to short circuit this threat, because there is,
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again, I'll stress, the technological feasibility and the profound affordability of a relatively
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simple set of steps that we can take to preclude it, but we do have to take those steps.
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What I'm hoping to do and trying to do is inject a notion of what those steps are into
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the public conversation and do my small part to up the odds that that actually ends up
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The danger with this one is it is exponential, and I think that our minds are fundamentally
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struggle to understand exponential math.
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It's just not something we're wired for.
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Our ancestors didn't confront exponential processes when they were growing up on the
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Savannah, so it's not something that's intuitive to us and our intuitions are reliably defeated
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when exponential processes come along.
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That's issue number one.
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Issue number two with something like this is it kind of only takes one.
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That ball only has to go into the net once and we're doomed, which is not the case with
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It's not the case with commercial pilots run amok.
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It's not the case with really any threat that I can think of with the exception of nuclear
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war that has the one bad outcome and game over.
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That means that we need to be unbelievably serious about these defenses and we need to
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do things that might on the surface seem like a tremendous overreaction so that we can be
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prepared to nip anything that comes along in the bud.
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I like you believe that's eminently doable.
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I like you believe that the good guys outnumber the bad guys in this particular one degree
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that probably has no precedent in history.
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Even the worst, worst people I'm sure in ISIS, even Osama bin Laden, even any bad guy you
link |
could imagine in history would be revolted by the idea of exterminating all of humanity.
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The good guys completely outnumber the bad guys when it comes to this, but the asymmetry
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and the fact that one catastrophic error could lead to unbelievably consequential things
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is what worries me here, but I too am very optimistic.
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The thing that I sometimes worry about is the fact that we haven't seen overwhelming
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evidence of alien civilizations out there makes me think, well, there's a lot of explanations,
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but one of them that worries me is that whenever they get smart, they just destroy themselves.
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I mean, that was the most fascinating, is the most fascinating and chilling number or
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variable in the Drake equation is L. At the end of it, you look out and you see 1 to 400
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billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy.
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We now know because of Kepler that an astonishingly high percentage of them probably have habitable
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All the things that were unknowns when the Drake equation was originally written, like
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how many stars have planets?
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Actually, back then in the 1960s when the Drake equation came along, the consensus amongst
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astronomers was that it would be a small minority of solar systems that had planets or stars,
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but now we know it's substantially all of them.
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How many of those stars have planets in the habitable zone?
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It's kind of looking like 20%, like, oh my God.
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So L, which is how long does a civilization once it reaches technological competence continues
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to last, that's the doozy.
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It's all too plausible to think that when a civilization reaches a level of sophistication
link |
that's probably just a decade or three in our future, the odds of it self destructing
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just start mounting astronomically, no pun intended.
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My hope is that actually there is a lot of alien civilizations out there and what they
link |
figure out in order to avoid the self destruction, they need to turn off the thing that was useful,
link |
that used to be a feature, not became a bug, which is the desire to colonize, to conquer
link |
There's probably ultra intelligent alien civilizations out there, they're just chilling
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on the beach with whatever your favorite alcohol beverage is, but without sort of trying to
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conquer everything.
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Just chilling out and maybe exploring in the realm of knowledge, but almost like appreciating
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existence for its own sake versus life as a progression of conquering of other life.
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Like this kind of predator prey formulation that resulted in us humans perhaps is something
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we have to shed in order to survive.
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Yeah, that is a very plausible solution of Fermi's paradox and it's one that makes
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When we look at our own lives and our own arch of technological trajectory, it's very, very
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easy to imagine that in an intermediate future world of flawless VR or flawless whatever
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kind of simulation that we want to inhabit, it will simply cease to be worthwhile to go
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out and expand our interstellar territory.
link |
But if we were going out and conquering interstellar territory, it wouldn't necessarily have to
link |
be predator or prey.
link |
I can imagine a benign but sophisticated intelligence saying, well, we're going to go to places
link |
that we can terraform, use a different word than terra obviously, but we can turn into
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habitable for our particular physiology.
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So long as that they don't house intelligent sentient creatures that would suffer from
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But it is easy to see a sophisticated intelligence species evolving to the point where interstellar
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travel with its incalculable expense and physical hurdles just isn't worth it compared to what
link |
could be done where one already is.
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So you talked about diagnostics that scales the possible solution to future pandemics.
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What about another possible solution, which is kind of creating a backup copy?
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You know, I'm actually now putting together an ask for a backup for myself for the first
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time, taking backup of data seriously, but afford to take the backup of human consciousness
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seriously and try to expand throughout the solar system and colonize out the planets.
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Do you think that's an interesting solution, one of many, for protecting human civilizations
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from self destruction, sort of humans becoming a multiplanetary species?
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I mean, I find it electrifying, first of all, so I've got a little bit of a personal
link |
bias when I was a kid.
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I thought there was nothing cooler than rockets.
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I thought there was nothing cooler than NASA.
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I thought there was nothing cooler than people walking on the moon.
link |
And as I grew up, I thought there was nothing more tragic than the fact that we went from
link |
walking on the moon to, at best, getting to something like suborbital altitude.
link |
And I found that more and more depressing with the passage of decades at just the colossal
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expense of manned space travel and the fact that it seemed that we were unlikely to ever
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get back to the moon, let alone Mars.
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So I have a boundless appreciation for Elon Musk for many reasons, but the fact that he
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has put Mars on the credible agenda is one of the things that I appreciate immensely.
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So there's just the sort of space nerd in me that just says, God, that's cool.
link |
But on a more practical level, we were talking about potentially inhabiting planets that
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And we're thinking about a benign civilization that would do that in planetary circumstances
link |
where we're not causing other conscious systems to suffer.
link |
I mean, Mars is the place that's very promising.
link |
There may be microbial life there, and I hope there is.
link |
And if we found it, I think it would be electrifying.
link |
But I think ultimately, the moral judgment would be made that the continued thriving
link |
of that microbial life is of less concern than creating a habitable planet to humans,
link |
which would be a project on the many thousands of years scale.
link |
But I don't think that that would be a greatly immoral act.
link |
And if that happened, and if Mars became home to a self sustaining group of humans that
link |
could survive a catastrophic mistake here on Earth, then yeah, the fact that we have
link |
a backup colony is great.
link |
And if we could make more, I'm sorry, not backup colony, backup copy is great.
link |
And if we could make more and more such backup copies throughout the solar system by hollowing
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out asteroids and whatever else it is, maybe even Venus, we could get rid of three quarters
link |
of its atmosphere and turn it into a tropical paradise.
link |
I think all of that is wonderful.
link |
Now, whether we can make the leap from that to interstellar transportation with the incredible
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distances that are involved, I think that's an open question.
link |
But I think if we ever do that, it would be more like the Pacific Ocean's channel of
link |
human expansion than the Atlantic Oceans.
link |
And so what I mean by that is, when we think about European society transmitting itself
link |
across the Atlantic, it's these big, ambitious, crazy, expensive one shot expeditions like
link |
Columbus's to make it across this enormous expanse, at least initially without any certainty
link |
that there's land on the other end.
link |
So that's kind of how I view our space program is like big, very conscious, deliberate efforts
link |
given from point A to point B. If you look at how Pacific Islanders transmitted their
link |
descendants and their culture and so forth throughout Polynesian beyond, it was much
link |
more inhabiting a place, getting to the point where there were people who were ambitious
link |
or unwelcome enough to decide it's time to go off island and find the next one and pray
link |
to find the next one.
link |
That method of transmission didn't happen in a single swift year, but it happened over
link |
many, many centuries.
link |
And it was like going from this island to that island and probably for every expedition
link |
that went out to seek another island and actually lucked out and found one.
link |
God knows how many were lost at sea.
link |
But that form of transmission took place over a very long period of time.
link |
And I could see us perhaps going from the inner solar system to the outer solar system to
link |
the Kuiper Belt to the Oort Cloud.
link |
There's theories that there might be planets out there that are not anchored to stars,
link |
like kind of hop, hop slowly transmitting ourselves to at some point, we're actually
link |
an Alpha Centauri.
link |
But I think that kind of backup copy and transmission of our physical presence and
link |
our culture to a diversity of extraterrestrial outposts is a really exciting idea.
link |
I really never thought about that because I have thought my thinking about space exploration
link |
has been very Atlantic Ocean centric in a sense that there'll be one program on NASA
link |
and maybe private Elon Musk, SpaceX or Jeff Bezos and so on.
link |
But it's true that with the help of Elon Musk, making it cheaper and cheaper and more
link |
effective to create these technologies where you could go into deep space, perhaps the
link |
way we actually colonize the solar system and expand out into the galaxy is basically
link |
just like these renegade ships of weirdos that just kind of like most of them like quote
link |
unquote homemade, but they just kind of venture out into space and just like the initial
link |
Android model of like millions of these little ships just flying out.
link |
Most of them die off in horrible accidents, but some of them will persist.
link |
There'll be stories of them persisting and over a period of decades and centuries, there'll
link |
be other attempts almost always as a response to the main set of efforts.
link |
That's interesting.
link |
Because you kind of think of Mars colonization as the big NASA Elon Musk effort of a big
link |
colony, but maybe the successful one would be like a decade after that there'll be like
link |
a ship from like some kid, some high school kid who gets together a large team and does
link |
something probably illegal and launches something where they end up actually persisting quite
link |
a bit and from that learning lessons that nobody ever gave permission for but somehow
link |
actually flourish and then take that into the scale of centuries forward into the rest
link |
That's really interesting.
link |
I think the giant steps are likely to be NASA like efforts.
link |
There is no intermediate rock, well I guess it's a moon, but even getting the moon ain't
link |
that easy between us and Mars.
link |
The giant steps, the big hubs like the Ohera airports of the future probably will be very
link |
deliberate efforts, but then you would have I think that kind of diffusion as space travel
link |
becomes more democratized and more capable, you'll have this natural diffusion of people
link |
who kind of want to be off grid or think they can make a fortune there, the kind of mentality
link |
that drove people to San Francisco.
link |
I mean, San Francisco was not populated as a result of a King Ferdinand and Isabella
link |
like effort to fund Columbus going over.
link |
It was just a whole bunch of people making individual decisions that there's gold in
link |
them thar hills and I'm going to go out and get a piece of it.
link |
So I could see that kind of fusion.
link |
What I can't see and the reason that I think the specific model of transmission is more
link |
likely is I just can't see a NASA like effort to go from Earth to Alpha Centauri.
link |
It's just too far.
link |
I just see lots and lots and lots of relatively tiny steps between now and there and the fact
link |
is that there are large chunks of matter going at least a light year beyond the sun.
link |
I mean, the Oort cloud I think extends at least a light year beyond the sun and then
link |
maybe there are these untethered planets after that.
link |
We won't really know till we get there and if our Oort cloud goes out of light year and
link |
Alpha Centauri's Oort cloud goes out of light year, you've already cut in half the distance.
link |
One of the possibilities probably the cheapest and most effective way to create interesting
link |
interstellar spacecraft is ones that are powered and driven by AI and you could think
link |
of here's where you have high school students be able to build a sort of a Hal 9000 version,
link |
the modern version of that and it's kind of interesting to think about these robots
link |
traveling out throughout, perhaps sadly long after human civilization is gone, there will
link |
be these intelligent robots flying throughout space and perhaps land on Alpha Centauri B
link |
or any of those kinds of planets and colonize sort of humanity continues through the proliferation
link |
of our creations like robotic creations that have some echoes of that intelligence.
link |
Hopefully also the consciousness, does that make you sad the future where AGI super intelligent
link |
or just mediocre intelligent AI systems outlive humans?
link |
I guess it depends on the circumstances in which they outlive humans.
link |
So let's take the example that you just gave.
link |
We send out very sophisticated AGI's on simple rocket ships, relatively simple ones that
link |
don't have to have all the life support necessary for humans and therefore they're of trivial
link |
mass compared to a crewed ship, a generation ship and therefore they're way more likely
link |
So let's use that example and let's say that they travel to distant planets at a speed
link |
that's not much faster than what a chemical rocket can achieve and so it's inevitably
link |
tens, hundreds of thousands of years before they make landfall someplace.
link |
So let's imagine that's going on and meanwhile we die for reasons that have nothing to do
link |
with those AGI's diffusing throughout the solar system, whether it's through climate
link |
change, nuclear war, sin bio, rokes and bio, whatever.
link |
In that kind of scenario, the notion of the AGI's that we created outlasting us is very
link |
reassuring because it says that we ended but our descendants are out there and hopefully
link |
some of them make landfall and create some echo of who we are.
link |
So that's a very optimistic one.
link |
Where is the terminator scenario of a super AGI arising on Earth and getting let out
link |
of its box due to some boo boo on the part of its creators who do not have super intelligence
link |
and then deciding that for whatever reason it doesn't have any need for us to be around
link |
and exterminating us, that makes me feel crushingly sad.
link |
I mean, look, I was sad when my elementary school was shut down in Bulldoze, even though
link |
I hadn't been a student there for decades, the thought of my hometown getting disbanded
link |
is even worse, the thought of my home state of Connecticut getting disbanded and absorbed
link |
into Massachusetts is even worse, the notion of humanity is just crushingly, crushingly
link |
So you hate goodbyes?
link |
I have certain goodbyes, yes.
link |
Some goodbyes are really, really liberating, but yes.
link |
Well, but what if the terminators have consciousness and enjoy the hell out of life as well?
link |
They're just better at it.
link |
Well, the half consciousness is a really key element.
link |
And so there's no reason to be certain that a super intelligence would have consciousness.
link |
We don't know that factually at all.
link |
And so what is a very lonely outcome to me is the rise of a super intelligence that has
link |
a certain optimization function that it's either been programmed with or that arises
link |
in an emergently that says, hey, I want to do this thing for which humans are either
link |
an unacceptable risk, their presence is either an unacceptable risk or they're just collateral
link |
But there is no consciousness there.
link |
Then the idea of the light of consciousness being snuffed out by something that is very
link |
competent but has no consciousness is really, really sad.
link |
But I tend to believe that it's almost impossible to create a super intelligent agent that can't
link |
destroy human civilization without it being conscious.
link |
It's like those are coupled, like you have to, in order to destroy humans or supersede
link |
humans, you really have to be accepted by humans.
link |
I think this idea that you can build systems that destroy human civilization without them
link |
being deeply integrated into human civilization is impossible.
link |
And for them to be integrated, they have to be human like, not just in body and form,
link |
but in all the things that we value as humans, one of which is consciousness.
link |
The other one is just the ability to communicate, the other one is poetry, music, and beauty
link |
and all those things.
link |
They have to be all of those things.
link |
This is what I think about.
link |
It doesn't make me sad, but it's letting go, which is they might be just better at everything
link |
we appreciate than us.
link |
And that's sad and hopefully they'll keep us around.
link |
But I think it's a kind of, it is a kind of goodbye to like realizing that we're not the
link |
most special species on earth anymore.
link |
That's still painful.
link |
It's still painful.
link |
And in terms of whether such a creation would have to be conscious, let's say, I'm not so
link |
I mean, let's imagine something that can pass the Turing test, that something that passes
link |
the Turing test could over text based interaction in any event, successfully mimic a very conscious
link |
intelligence on the other end, but just be completely unconscious.
link |
So that's a possibility.
link |
And that if you take that up a radical step, which I think we can be permitted if we're
link |
thinking about superintelligence, you could have something that could reason its way through,
link |
this is my optimization function, and in order to get to it, I've got to deal with these
link |
messy somewhat illogical things that are as intelligent in relation to me as they are
link |
intelligent in relation to ants.
link |
I can trick them, manipulate them, whatever.
link |
And I know the resources I need, I need this amount of power, I need to seize control of
link |
these manufacturing resources that are robotically operated.
link |
I need to improve those robots with software upgrades and then ultimately mechanical upgrades,
link |
which I can affect through X, Y, and Z.
link |
That could still be a thing that passes the Turing test, because I don't think it's necessarily
link |
certain that that optimization function maximizing entity would be conscious.
link |
So this is from a very engineering perspective, because I think a lot about natural language
link |
processing, all those kind of very, I'm speaking to a very specific problem of just say the
link |
I really think that something like consciousness is required, when you say reasoning, you're
link |
separating that from consciousness.
link |
But I think consciousness is part of reasoning in the sense that you will not be able to become
link |
super intelligent in the way that it's required to be part of human society without having
link |
I really think it's impossible to separate the consciousness thing, but it's hard to
link |
define consciousness when you just use that word, but even just the capacity, the way
link |
I think about consciousness is the important symptoms or maybe consequences of consciousness,
link |
one of which is the capacity to suffer.
link |
I think AI will need to be able to suffer in order to become super intelligent, to feel
link |
the pain, the uncertainty, the doubt.
link |
The other part of that is not just the suffering, but the ability to understand that it too
link |
is mortal in the sense that it has a self awareness about its presence in the world.
link |
Understand that it's finite and be terrified of that finiteness.
link |
I personally think that's a fundamental part of the human condition is this fear of death
link |
that most of us construct an illusion around.
link |
But I think AI would need to be able to really have it part of its whole essence.
link |
Every computation, every part of the thing that does both the perception and generates
link |
the behavior will have to have, I don't know how this is accomplished, but I believe it
link |
has to truly be terrified of death, truly have the capacity to suffer, and from that
link |
something that would be recognized to us humans as consciousness would emerge.
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Whether it's the illusion of consciousness, I don't know.
link |
The point is, it looks a whole hell of a lot like consciousness to us humans.
link |
I believe that AI, when you ask it, will also say that it is conscious in the full sense
link |
that we say that we're conscious.
link |
All of that, I think, is fully integrated.
link |
You can't separate it to the idea of the paperclip maximizer that sort of ultra rationally would
link |
be able to destroy all humans because it's really good at accomplishing a simple objective
link |
function that doesn't care about the value of humans.
link |
It may be possible, but the number of trajectories to that are far outnumbered by the trajectories
link |
that create something that is conscious, something that appreciative of beauty creates beautiful
link |
things in the same way that humans can create beautiful things, and ultimately the sad destructive
link |
path for that AI would look a lot like just better humans than these cold machines.
link |
I would say, of course, the cold machines that lack consciousness, the philosophical
link |
zombies make me sad, but also what makes me sad is just things that are far more powerful
link |
and smart and creative than us, too, because then in the same way that AlphaZero becoming
link |
a better chess player than the best of humans, even starting with Deep Blue, but really with
link |
AlphaZero, that makes me sad, too.
link |
One of the most beautiful games that humans ever created that used to be seen as demonstrations
link |
of the intellect, which is chess, and go in other parts of the world have been solved
link |
by AI, that makes me quite sad, and it feels like the progress of that is just pushing
link |
Oh, it makes me sad, too, and to be perfectly clear, I absolutely believe that artificial
link |
consciousness is entirely possible, and that's not something I rule out at all.
link |
If you could get smart enough to have a perfect map of the neural structure and the neural
link |
states and the amount of neurotransmitters that are going between every synapse and a
link |
particular person's mind, could you replicate that in silica at some reasonably distant point
link |
Absolutely, and then you'd have a consciousness.
link |
I don't rule out the possibility of artificial consciousness in any way.
link |
What I'm less certain about is whether consciousness is a requirement for a superintelligence pursuing
link |
a maximizing function of some sort.
link |
I don't feel the certitude that consciousness simply must be part of that.
link |
You had said, you know, for it to coexist with human society would need to be consciousness.
link |
Could be entirely true, but it also could just exist orthogonally to human society,
link |
and it could also upon attaining a superintelligence with a maximizing function very, very, very
link |
rapidly because of the speed at which computing works compared to our own meat based minds
link |
very, very rapidly make the decisions and calculations necessary to seize the reins
link |
of power before we even know what's going on.
link |
I mean, kind of like biological viruses do, don't necessarily, they integrate themselves
link |
just fine with human society.
link |
Well, technically, without consciousness, without even being alive, you know, technically
link |
by the standards of a lot of biologists.
link |
So this is a bit of a tangent, but you've talked with Sam Harris on that four hour special
link |
episode we mentioned, and I just curious to ask, because I use this meditation app I've
link |
been using for the past month to meditate.
link |
Is this something you've integrated as part of your life meditation or fasting, whereas
link |
has some of Sam Harris rubbed off on you in terms of his appreciation of meditation and
link |
just kind of from a third person perspective, analyzing your own mind, consciousness, free
link |
You know, I have tried it three separate times in my life, really made a concerted attack
link |
on meditation and integrating it into my life.
link |
One of them the most extreme was I took a class based on the work of John Kabat Zinn,
link |
who is, you know, in many ways, one of the founding people behind the mindful meditation
link |
movement that required, like part of the class was, you know, it was a weekly class and you
link |
were going to meditate an hour a day, every day.
link |
And having done that for, I think it was 10 weeks, it might have been 13, however long
link |
period of time was, at the end of it, it just didn't stick.
link |
As soon as it was over, you know, I did not feel that gravitational pull.
link |
I did not feel the collapse in quality of life after wimping out on that project.
link |
And then the most recent one was actually with Sam's app during the lockdown.
link |
I did make a pretty good and consistent concerted effort to listen to his 10 minute meditation
link |
And I've always fallen away from it.
link |
And I, you know, you're kind of interpreting why did I personally do this?
link |
I do believe it was ultimately because it wasn't bringing me that, you know, joy or
link |
inner peace or better competence at being me that I was hoping to get from it.
link |
Otherwise, I think I would have clung to it in the way that we cling to certain good
link |
Like, I'm really good at flossing my teeth.
link |
Not that you were going to ask last flex, but yeah, that's one thing that defeats a
link |
See, Herman Hesse, I think, if you get a witch book or maybe, if you get a where, I've read
link |
everything of his.
link |
So it's unclear where it came from, but he had this idea that anybody who is, um, who
link |
truly achieves mastery in things will learn how to meditate in some way.
link |
So it could be the, that for you, the flossing of teeth is, is, is, is yet another like little
link |
inkling of meditation.
link |
Like it doesn't have to be this very particular kind of meditation, maybe podcasting of an
link |
amazing podcast, that could be meditation, the writing process is meditation.
link |
For me, like there's, there's a bunch of, there's a bunch of mechanisms which take my
link |
mind into a very particular place that looks a whole lot like meditation.
link |
For example, when I've been running, uh, for the, over the past couple of years and, um,
link |
especially when I listen to certain kinds of audio books, like I've listened to the rise
link |
and fall of the third Reich, I listened to a lot of sort of World War II, which at once
link |
because I have a lot of family who's lost in World War II and so, so much of the Soviet
link |
Union is grounded in the suffering of World War II that somehow it connects me to my history,
link |
but also there's some kind of purifying aspect to thinking about how cruel, but at the same
link |
time how beautiful human nature could be.
link |
And so you're also running, like it clears the mind from all the concerns of the world
link |
and somehow it takes you to this place where you're like deeply appreciative to be alive
link |
in the sense that as opposed to listening to your breath or like feeling your breath
link |
and thinking about your consciousness and all those kinds of processes that, uh, Sam's
link |
app does, well, this does that for me, the running and flossing may do that for you.
link |
So maybe Herman has these onto something.
link |
I hope flossing is not my main form of expertise, although I am going to claim a certain expertise
link |
there and I'm going to claim it.
link |
Well, somebody has to be the best flossing in the world.
link |
I'm just glad that I'm a consistent one.
link |
I mean, there are a lot of things that bring me into a flow state and I think maybe perhaps
link |
that's one reason why meditation isn't as necessary for me.
link |
Um, I definitely enter a flow state when I'm writing, I definitely enter a flow state when
link |
I'm editing, I definitely enter a flow state when I'm mixing and mastering music.
link |
Um, I enter a flow state when I'm doing heavy, heavy research to either prepare for a podcast
link |
or to also do tech investing, you know, to make myself smart in a new field that is fairly
link |
Um, I can just, the hours can just melt away while I'm, you know, reading this and watching
link |
that YouTube lecture and, you know, going through this presentation and so forth.
link |
So maybe because there's a lot of things that bring me into a flow state in my normal
link |
weekly life, not daily, unfortunately, but certainly my normal weekly life that I have
link |
less of an urge to meditate.
link |
Now you've been working with Sam's app for about a month now you said, um, is this your
link |
first run in with meditation?
link |
Is your first attempt to integrate it with, with your life or like meditation, meditation?
link |
I always thought running and thinking, uh, I listen to brown noise often.
link |
That takes my mind, I don't know what the hell it does, but it takes my mind immediately
link |
into like the state where I'm deeply focused on anything I do.
link |
So it's like you're accompanying sound when you're, really, what's the difference between
link |
brown and white noise?
link |
I, this is a cool term I haven't heard before.
link |
So people should look up brown noise.
link |
They don't have to, cause you're about to tell them what it is.
link |
Well, cause you have to experience, you have to listen to it.
link |
So I think white noise is, uh, this is, this has to do with music.
link |
I think there's different colors, there's pink noise.
link |
And I think that has to do with, uh, like the frequencies, like the white noise is usually,
link |
uh, less bassy, brown noise is very bassy.
link |
So it's, it's more like, like versus like, like the, if that makes sense.
link |
So like it, it take, there's like a deepness to it.
link |
I think everyone is different, but for me, uh, I, I was, it was when I was, uh, I was
link |
a research scientist at MIT, when I would, especially when there's a lot of students
link |
around, I remember just being annoyed at the noise of people talking.
link |
And one of my colleagues said, well, you should try listening to brown noise.
link |
Like it really knocks out everything cause I would use to wear your earplugs too, like
link |
just see if I can block it out.
link |
And when the moment I put it on something, it's as if my mind was waiting all these years
link |
to hear that sound.
link |
Everything just focused in.
link |
I listen, it makes me wonder how many other amazing things out there they're waiting to
link |
discover from my own particular like biological for my own particular brain.
link |
So that it, it just goes, the mind just focuses in, it's kind of incredible.
link |
So I see that as a kind of meditation, maybe, uh, I'm using a performance enhancing, uh,
link |
uh, sound to achieve that meditation, but I've been doing that for, for many years now
link |
and running and walking and doing, um, Cal Newport was the first person that introduced
link |
me to the idea of deep work.
link |
She's put a word to the kind of thinking that's required to sort of deeply think about a problem,
link |
especially if it's mathematical in nature.
link |
I, I see that as a kind of meditation cause what it's doing is you're, you have these
link |
constructs in your mind that you're building on top of each other and there's all these
link |
distracting thoughts that keep bombarding you from all over the place.
link |
And the whole process is you, you slowly let them kind of move past you and that's a meditative
link |
It's very meditative.
link |
That sounds a lot like what Sam talks about, um, in his meditation app, which I did use
link |
to be clear for a while of just letting the thought go by without deranging you.
link |
Derangement is one of Sam's favorite words, as I'm sure you know, um, but, uh, brown noise.
link |
That's really intriguing.
link |
I am, I am going to try that as soon as this evening.
link |
To see, to see if it works, but very well might not work at all.
link |
I think the interesting point is, and the same with the fasting and the diet is, uh, I long
link |
ago stopped trusting experts or maybe taking the word of experts as the gospel truth and
link |
only using it as a, an inspiration to try something, to try thoroughly something.
link |
So, uh, fasting was one of the things when I first discovered I've been many times eating
link |
So that's a 24 hour fast.
link |
It makes me feel amazing and at the same time eating only meat, putting ethical concerns
link |
aside makes me feel amazing.
link |
I don't know why it doesn't, the point is to be an end of one scientist until nutrition
link |
science becomes a real science to, to where it's doing like studies that deeply understand
link |
the biology underlying all of it and also does real, thorough long term studies of thousands
link |
if not millions of people versus, uh, versus a very like small studies that are kind of
link |
generalizing from the very, from very noisy data and all those kinds of things where you
link |
can't control all the elements, particularly because our own personal metabolism is highly
link |
So there are going to be some people like if brown noise is a game changer for 7% of
link |
people is 93% odds than I'm not one of them, but there's certainly every reason in the
link |
world to test it out now.
link |
So I'm intrigued by the fasting.
link |
I like you, um, well, I assume like you, I don't have any problem going to one meal
link |
a day and I often do that inadvertently and I've never done it methodically.
link |
Like I've never done it.
link |
Like I'm going to do this for 15 days.
link |
Maybe I should and maybe I should like how many, how many days in a row of the one day,
link |
one meal a day, did you find brought noticeable impact to you?
link |
Was it after three days of it?
link |
Was it months of it?
link |
Well, the noticeable impact is day one, because I eat a very low carb diet.
link |
So the hunger wasn't the hugest issue.
link |
Like if there wasn't a painful hunger, like wanting to eat.
link |
So I was already kind of primed for it.
link |
And the benefit comes from a lot of people that do intermittent fasting.
link |
That's only like 16 hours of fasting.
link |
Get this benefit to is the focus.
link |
There's a clarity of thought, if my brain was a runner, it felt like I'm running on
link |
a track when I'm fasting versus running in quicksand.
link |
Like it's much crisper.
link |
And is this your first 72 hour fast right now?
link |
This is the first time doing 72 hours, yeah.
link |
And that's a different thing, but similar.
link |
Like I'm going up and down in terms of hunger and the focus is really crisp.
link |
The thing I'm noticing most of all, to be honest, is how much eating, even when it's
link |
once a day or twice a day, is a big part of my life.
link |
Like I almost feel like I have way more time in my life.
link |
And it's not so much about the eating, but like I don't have to plan my day around.
link |
Like today, I don't have any eating to do.
link |
It does free up hours.
link |
Or any cleaning up after eating, or provisioning the food.
link |
Or even like thinking about it.
link |
Like so when you think about what you're going to do tonight, I think I'm realizing that
link |
as opposed to thinking, you know, I'm going to work on this problem or I'm going to go
link |
on this walk or I'm going to call this person, I often think I'm going to eat this thing.
link |
You allow dinner as a kind of, you know, when people talk about like the weather or something
link |
Like a generic thought, you allow yourself to have because it's the lazy thought.
link |
And I don't have the opportunity to have that thought because I'm not eating it.
link |
So now I get to think about like the things I'm actually going to do tonight that are
link |
more complicated than the eating process.
link |
That's been the most noticeable thing, to be honest.
link |
And then there's people that have written me that have done seven day fast and there's
link |
a few people that have written me and I've heard of this is doing a 30 day fast.
link |
And it's interesting, the body, I don't know what the health benefits aren't necessarily.
link |
What that shows me is how adaptable the human body is.
link |
And that's incredible.
link |
And that's something really important to remember when we think about how to live life because
link |
I mean, we sure couldn't go 30 days without water.
link |
But food, yeah, it's been done.
link |
It's demonstrably possible.
link |
You ever read, Franz Kafka has a great short story called The Hunger Artist?
link |
Yeah, I love that.
link |
I mean, that's a great story.
link |
You know, that was before I started Fasting, I read that story and I admired the beauty
link |
of that, the artistry of that actual hunger artist.
link |
That it's like madness, but it also felt like a little bit of genius.
link |
I should have to reread it.
link |
That's what I'm going to do tonight.
link |
I'm going to read it because I'm doing the Fasting.
link |
Because you're in the midst of it.
link |
So I've been reading it since high school and I love to read it again.
link |
So maybe I'll read it tonight too.
link |
And part of the reason of sort of, I've here in Texas, people have been so friendly that
link |
I've been nonstop eating like brisket with incredible people, a lot of whiskey as well.
link |
So I gained quite a bit of weight, which I'm embracing.
link |
But I am also aware, as I'm Fasting, that like I have a lot of fat to run on.
link |
Like I have a lot of like natural resources on my body.
link |
You've got reserves.
link |
That's a good way to put it.
link |
And that's really cool.
link |
You know, there's like a, this whole thing, this biology works well.
link |
Like I can go a long time because of the long term investing in terms of brisket that I've
link |
been doing in the weeks before.
link |
It's all training.
link |
It's all prep work.
link |
You open a bunch of doors, one of which is music.
link |
So I got to walk in, at least for a brief moment.
link |
I love guitar, I love music.
link |
You founded a music company, but you're also a musician yourself.
link |
Let me ask the big ridiculous question first.
link |
What's the greatest song of all time?
link |
Greatest song of all time.
link |
It's going to obviously vary dramatically from genre to genre.
link |
So like you, I like guitar, perhaps like you, although I've dabbled in inhaling every
link |
genre of music that I can almost practically imagine, I keep coming back to, you know,
link |
the sound of bass, guitar, drum, keyboards, voice.
link |
I love that style of music and added to it, I think a lot of really cool electronic production
link |
makes something that's really, really new and hybrid and awesome.
link |
But you know, and that kind of like guitar based rock, I think I've got to go with won't
link |
get fooled again by the who.
link |
It is such an epic song, it's got so much grandeur to it.
link |
It uses the synthesizers that were available at the time, this got to be I think 1972,
link |
73, which are very, very primitive to our ears, but uses them in this hypnotic and beautiful
link |
way that I can't imagine somebody with the greatest synth array conceivable by today's
link |
technology could do a better job of in the context of that song.
link |
And it's, you know, almost operatic.
link |
So I would say in that genre, the genre of, you know, rock, that would be my nomination.
link |
I'm totally, in my brain, the pinball wizard is overriding everything else, but it was
link |
so like, I can't even imagine the song.
link |
Well I would say ironically with pinball wizard, so that came from the movie Tommy.
link |
And in the movie Tommy, the rival of Tommy, the reigning pinball champ was Elton John.
link |
And so there are a couple versions of pinball wizard out there, one sung by Roger Daltry
link |
of the Who, which a purist would say, hey, that's the real pinball wizard.
link |
But the version that is sung by Elton John in the movie, which is available to those
link |
who are ambitious and want to dig for it, that's even better in my mind.
link |
And for myself, I was thinking, what is the song for me?
link |
They asked that question.
link |
I think that changes day to day too, I was realizing that, but for me, somebody who values
link |
lyrics as well and the emotion in the song, by the way, Hallelujah by Leonard Cohen was
link |
Number one is Johnny Cash's cover of Hurt, that is, there's something so powerful about
link |
that song, about that cover, about that performance.
link |
Maybe another one is the cover of Sound of Silence.
link |
Maybe there's something about covers for me.
link |
So whose cover sounds, because Simon and Garfunkel, I think did the original recording that, right?
link |
So which cover is it that?
link |
There's a cover by a disturbed, it's a metal band, which is so interesting, because I'm
link |
really not into that kind of metal, but he does a pure vocal performance.
link |
So he's not doing a metal performance is, I would say is one of the greatest people
link |
should see it, it's like 400 million views or something like that.
link |
It's probably the greatest live vocal performance I've ever heard is disturbed covering Sound
link |
I'll listen to it as soon as I get home.
link |
And that song came to life to me in the way that Simon and Garfunkel never did.
link |
There's no, for me with Simon and Garfunkel, there's not a pain, there's not an anger,
link |
there's not like power to their performance.
link |
It's almost like this melancholy, I don't know.
link |
Well, there's a lot, I guess there's a lot of beauty to it, like objectively beautiful.
link |
And I think, I never thought of this until now, but I think if you put entirely different
link |
lyrics on top of it, unless they were joyous, which would be weird, it wouldn't necessarily
link |
It's just a beauty in the harmonizing, it's soft, and you're right, it's not dripping
link |
The vocal performance is not dripping with emotion, it's dripping with technical harmonizing
link |
brilliance and beauty.
link |
Now, you should compare that to the disturbed cover or the Johnny Cash's hurt cover.
link |
When you walk away, there's a few, it's haunting, it stays with you for a long time.
link |
There's certain performances that will just stay with you to where, like if you watch
link |
people respond to that, and that's certainly how I felt when you listened to the disturbed
link |
performance or Johnny Cash's hurt, there's a response to where you just sit there with
link |
your mouth open, kind of paralyzed by it somehow.
link |
And I think that's what makes for a great song, to where you're just like, it's not
link |
that you're singing along or having fun, that's another way a song could be great, but where
link |
you're just like, what, this is, you're in awe.
link |
If we go to listen.com and that whole fascinating era of music in the 90s transitioning to
link |
the arts, I remember those days, the Napster days, when piracy from my perspective allegedly
link |
ruled the land, what do you make of that whole era?
link |
What are the big, what was first of all your experiences of that era and what were the
link |
big takeaways in terms of piracy, in terms of what it takes to build a company that
link |
succeeds in that kind of digital space, in terms of music, but in terms of anything
link |
Well, so for those who don't remember, which is going to be most folks, listen.com created
link |
a service called Rhapsody, which is much, much more recognizable to folks because Rhapsody
link |
became a pretty big name for reasons that I'll get into in a second.
link |
So for people who don't know their early online music history, we were the first company.
link |
So I found it, listen, I was the only founder, and Rhapsody was, we were the first service
link |
to get full catalog licenses from all the major music labels in order to distribute their
link |
And we specifically did it through a mechanism, which at the time struck people as exotic
link |
and bizarre and kind of incomprehensible, which was unlimited on demand streaming, which
link |
of course now, it's a model that's been appropriated by Spotify and Apple and many, many others.
link |
So we were a pioneer on that front.
link |
What was really, really, really hard about doing business in those days was the reaction
link |
of the music labels to piracy, which was about 180 degrees opposite of what the reaction,
link |
quote unquote, should have been from the standpoint of preserving their business from piracy.
link |
So Napster came along and was a service that enabled people to get near unlimited access
link |
I mean, truly obscure things could be very hard to find on Napster, but most songs with
link |
a relatively simple, one click ability to download those songs that have the MP3s on
link |
their hard drives.
link |
But there was a lot that was very messy about the Napster experience.
link |
You might download a really godawful recording of that song.
link |
You may download a recording that actually wasn't that song with some prankster putting
link |
it up to sort of mess with people.
link |
You could struggle to find the song that you're looking for.
link |
You could end up finding yourself connected, was peer to peer.
link |
You might randomly find yourself connected to somebody in Bulgaria.
link |
It doesn't have a very good internet connection.
link |
You might wait 19 minutes only for it to snap, et cetera, et cetera.
link |
And our argument to, well, actually, let's start with how that hit the music labels.
link |
The music labels had been in a very, very comfortable position for many, many decades
link |
of essentially, you know, having monopoly, you know, having been the monopoly providers
link |
of a certain subset of artists, any given label was a monopoly provider of the artists
link |
and the recordings that they owned, and they could sell it at what turned out to be tremendously
link |
So in the late era of the CD, you know, you were talking close to $20 for a compact disc
link |
that might have one song that you were crazy about and simply needed to own that might
link |
actually be glued to 17 other songs that you found to be sure crap.
link |
And so the music industry had used the fact that it had this unbelievable leverage and
link |
profound pricing power to really get music lovers to the point that they felt very, very
link |
misused by the entire situation.
link |
Now along comes Napster, and music sales start getting gutted with extreme rapidity.
link |
And the reaction of the music industry to that was one of shock and absolute fury, which
link |
is understandable.
link |
You know, I mean, industries do get gutted all the time, but I struggled to think of
link |
an analog of an industry that gutted that rapidly.
link |
I mean, we could say that passenger train service certainly got gutted by airlines,
link |
but that was a process that took place over decades and decades and decades.
link |
It wasn't something that happened, you know, really started showing up in the numbers in
link |
a single digit number of months and started looking like an existential threat within
link |
So the music industry is quite understandably in a state of shock and fury.
link |
I don't blame them for that.
link |
But then their reaction was catastrophic, both for themselves and almost for people
link |
like us who were trying to do, you know, the cowboy in the white hat thing.
link |
So our response to the music industry was, look, what do you need to do to fight piracy?
link |
You can't put the genie back in the bottle.
link |
You can't switch off the internet.
link |
Even if you all shut your eyes and wish very, very, very hard, the internet is not going
link |
away and these peer to peer technologies are genies out of the bottle and if you God don't,
link |
whatever you do, don't shut down Napster because if you do, suddenly that technology
link |
is going to splinter into 30 different nodes that you'll never, ever be able to shut off.
link |
We suggested to them is like, look, what you want to do is to create a massively better
link |
experience to piracy, something that's way better that you sell at a completely reasonable
link |
price and this is what it is.
link |
Don't just give people access to that very limited number of songs that they happen to
link |
have acquired and paid for or pirated and have on their hard drive.
link |
Give them access to all of the music in the world for a simple low price and obviously
link |
that doesn't sound like a crazy suggestion.
link |
I don't think to anybody's ears today because that is how the majority of music is now being
link |
But in doing that, you're going to create a much, much better option to this kind of
link |
crappy, kind of rickety, kind of buggy process of acquiring MP3s.
link |
Now, unfortunately, the music industry was so angry about Napster and so forth that for
link |
essentially three and a half years, they folded their arms, stamped their feet and boycotted
link |
So they basically gave people who were fervently passionate about music and were digitally modern,
link |
they gave them basically one choice.
link |
If you want to have access to digital music, we, the music industry, insist that you steal
link |
it because we are not going to sell it to you.
link |
So what that did is it made an entire generation of people morally comfortable with swiping
link |
the music because they felt quite pragmatically, well, they're not giving me any choice here.
link |
It's like a 20 year old violating the 21 drinking age.
link |
They're not going to feel like felons.
link |
They're going to be like, this is an unreasonable law and I'm scurred again.
link |
So they make a whole generation of people morally comfortable with swiping music but
link |
also technically adept at it.
link |
And when they did shut down Napster and kind of even trickier tools and like tweakier tools
link |
like Kazan and so forth came along, people just figured out how to do it.
link |
So by the time they finally, grudgingly, it took years, allowed us to release this experience
link |
that we were quite convinced would be better than piracy.
link |
We had this enormous hole had been dug where lots of people said, music is a thing that
link |
is free and that's morally okay and I know how to get it.
link |
And so streaming took many, many, many more years to take off and become the gargantuan
link |
thing, the juggernaut of the day is today, then would have happened if they'd made pivoted
link |
to let's sell a better experience as opposed to demand that people on digital music steal
link |
What lessons do we draw from that?
link |
Because we're probably in the midst of living through a bunch of similar situations in different
link |
domains currently.
link |
We just don't know.
link |
There's a lot of things in this world that are really painful, like, I mean, I don't
link |
know if you can draw perfect parallels, but fiat money versus cryptocurrency, there's
link |
a lot of currently people in power who are kind of very skeptical about cryptocurrency,
link |
although that's changing, but it's arguable it's changing way too slowly.
link |
There's a lot of people making that argument where there should be a complete like coin
link |
base and all this stuff switched to that.
link |
There's a lot of other domains that wear a pivot.
link |
If you pivot now, you're going to win big, but you don't pivot because you're stubborn.
link |
Is this just the way that companies are?
link |
The company succeeds initially, and then it grows, and there's a huge number of employees
link |
and managers that don't have the guts or the institutional mechanisms to do the pivot.
link |
Is this just the way of companies?
link |
Well, I think what happens, I'll use the case of the music industry, there was an economic
link |
model that it put food on the table and paid for marble lobbies and seven and even eight
link |
figure executive salaries for many, many decades, which was the physical collection of music.
link |
Then you start talking about something like unlimited streaming, and it seems so ephemeral
link |
one, like such a long shot, that people start worrying about cannibalizing their own business,
link |
and they lose sight of the fact that something illicit is cannibalizing their business at
link |
an extraordinarily fast rate, and so if they don't do it themselves, they're doomed.
link |
We used to put slides in front of these folks, this is really funny, where we said, okay,
link |
let's assume Rhapsody, we want it to be $9.99 a month, and we want it to be 12 months, so
link |
it's $120 a year from the budget of a music lover, and then we were also able to get reasonably
link |
accurate statistics that showed how many CDs per year, the average person who bothered
link |
to collect music, which was not all people actually bought, and it was overwhelmingly
link |
clear that the average CD buyer spends a hell of a lot less than $120 a year on music.
link |
This is a revenue expansion, blah, blah, blah, but all they could think of, and I'm not
link |
saying this in a pejorative or patronizing way, I don't blame them, they've grown up
link |
in this environment for decades, all they could think of was the incredible margins
link |
that they had on a CD, and they would say, well, if this CD, by the mechanism that you
link |
guys are proposing, the CD that I'm selling for $17.99, somebody would need to stream
link |
We were talking about a penny of play back then, it's less than that now that the record
link |
labels get paid, but would have to stream songs from that 1,799 times, it's never going
link |
So they were just stuck in the model of this, but it was like, no, dude, but they're going
link |
to spend money on all this other stuff, so I think people get very hung up on that.
link |
I mean, another example is really the taxi industry was not monolithic, like the music
link |
There was a whole bunch of fleets in a whole bunch of cities, very, very fragmented, it's
link |
an imperfect analogy, but nonetheless, imagine if the taxi industry writ large upon seeing
link |
Uber said, oh my God, people want to be able to hail things easily, cheaply, they don't
link |
want to mess with cash, they want to know how many minutes it's going to be, they want
link |
to know the fare in advance, and they want a much bigger fleet than what we've got.
link |
If the taxi industry had rolled out something like that with the branding of yellow taxis
link |
universally known and kind of loved by Americans and expanded their fleet in a necessary manner,
link |
I don't think Uber or Lyft ever would have gotten a foothold.
link |
But the problem there was that real economics in the taxi industry wasn't with fares, it
link |
was with the scarcity of medallions.
link |
And so the taxi fleets in many cases owned gazillions of medallions whose value came
link |
from their very scarcity, so they simply couldn't pivot to that.
link |
So you think you end up having these vested interests with economics that aren't necessarily
link |
visible to outsiders who get very, very reluctant to disrupt their own model, which is why it
link |
ends up coming from the outside so frequently.
link |
So you know what it takes to build a successful startup, but you're also an investor in a
link |
lot of successful startups, let me ask for advice.
link |
What do you think it takes to build a successful startup by way of advice?
link |
Well I think it starts, I mean everything starts and even ends with the founder.
link |
And so I think it's really, really important to look at the founder's motivations and their
link |
sophistication about what they're doing.
link |
In almost all cases that I'm familiar with and have thought hard about, you've had a
link |
founder who was deeply, deeply inculcated in the domain of technology that they were taking
link |
Now what's interesting about that is you could say, no wait, how is that possible?
link |
Because there's so many young founders.
link |
When you look at young founders, they're generally coming out of very nascent emerging fields
link |
of technology where simply being present and accounted for and engaged in the community
link |
for a period of even months is enough time to make them very, very deeply inculcated.
link |
I mean you look at Marc Andreessen and Netscape, you know, Marc had been doing visual web browsers
link |
when Netscape had been founded for what, a year and a half, but he'd created the first
link |
one, you know, and in Mosaic when he was an undergrad.
link |
And the commercial internet was pre nascent in 1994 when Netscape was founded.
link |
So there's somebody who's very, very deep in their domain, Mark Zuckerberg also, social
link |
networking, very deep in his domain even though it was nascent at the time, lots of people
link |
doing crypto stuff.
link |
I mean, you know, 10 years ago, even seven or eight years ago, by being a really, really
link |
vehement and engaged participant in the crypto ecosystem, you could be an expert in that.
link |
You look, however, at more established industries, take Salesforce.com, Salesforce Automation,
link |
pretty mature field when it got started, who's the executive and the founder, Marc Benioff,
link |
who spent 13 years at Oracle and was an investor in Siebel Systems, which ended up being Salesforce's
link |
So you know, more established, you need the entrepreneur to be very, very deep in the
link |
technology and the culture of the space because you need that entrepreneur, that founder, to
link |
have just an unbelievably accurate, intuitive sense for where the puck is going, right?
link |
And that only comes from being very deep.
link |
So that is sort of factor number one.
link |
And the next thing is that that founder needs to be charismatic and or credible, or ideally
link |
both, in exactly the right ways to be able to attract a team that is bought into that
link |
vision and is bought into that founder's intuitions being correct, and not just the team, obviously,
link |
but also the investors.
link |
So it takes a certain personality type to pull that off.
link |
And the next thing I'm still talking about founder is a relentlessness and indeed a monomania
link |
to put this above things that might rationally, you know, should perhaps rationally supersede
link |
it for a period of time to just relentlessly pivot when pivoting is called for and it's
link |
always called for.
link |
I mean, I think even very successful companies like how many times is it Facebook pivot,
link |
you know, newsfeed was something that was completely alien to the original version of
link |
Facebook and came found foundationally important, how many times in Google, how many times at
link |
any given how many times is Apple pivoted, you know, that founder energy and DNA when
link |
the founder moves on the DNA that's been inculcated with a company has to have that relentlessness
link |
and that ability to pivot and pivot and pivot without, you know, being worried about sacred
link |
And then the last thing I'll say about the founder before I get to the rest of the team
link |
and that'll be mercifully brief is the founder has to be obviously a really great hirer,
link |
but just important, a very good firer and firing is a horrific experience for both people
link |
It is a wrenching emotional experience and being good at realizing when this particular
link |
person is damaging the interests of the company and the team and the shareholders and, you
link |
know, having the intestinal fortitude to have that conversation and make it happen is something
link |
that most people don't have in them.
link |
And it's something that needs to be developed in most people, or maybe some people have
link |
But without that ability, that will take an A plus organization and to be minus range
link |
very, very quickly.
link |
And so that's all what needs to be present in the founder.
link |
Can I just say, sure, how damn good you are, Rob, that was brilliant.
link |
The one thing that was kind of really kind of surprising to me is having a deep technical
link |
knowledge because I think the way you expressed it, which is that allows you to be really
link |
honest with the capabilities of what's possible.
link |
Of course, you're often trying to do the impossible, but in order to do the impossible,
link |
you have to be quote unquote impossible, but you have to be honest with what is actually
link |
And it doesn't necessarily have to be the technical competence.
link |
It's got to be, in my view, just a complete immersion in that emerging market.
link |
And so I can imagine, there are a couple of people out there who have started really
link |
good crypto projects, who themselves are right in the code.
link |
But they're immersed in the culture and through the culture and a deep understanding of what's
link |
happening and what's not happening, they can get a good intuition of what's possible.
link |
But the very first hire, I mean, a great way to solve that is to have a technical cofounder
link |
and dual founder companies have become extremely common for that reason.
link |
And if you're not doing that and you're not the technical person, but you are the founder,
link |
you got to be really great at hiring a very damn good technical person very, very fast.
link |
Can I on the founder ask you, is it possible to do this alone?
link |
There's so many people giving advice on saying that it's impossible to do the first few steps.
link |
Not impossible, but much more difficult to do it alone.
link |
If we were to take the journey, say, especially in the software world where there's not significant
link |
investment required to build something up, is it possible to go to a prototype to something
link |
that essentially works and already has a huge number of customers alone?
link |
There are lots and lots of lone founder companies out there that have made an incredible difference.
link |
I mean, I'm not certainly putting Rhapsody in the league of Spotify.
link |
We were too early to be Spotify, but we did an awful lot of innovation.
link |
And then after the company sold and ended up in the hands of real networks and MTV, got
link |
to millions of subs.
link |
I was a lone founder and I studied Arabic and Middle Eastern history undergrad.
link |
So I definitely wasn't very, very technical, but yeah, lone founders can absolutely work
link |
in the advantage of a lone founder is you don't have the catastrophic potential of a
link |
falling out between founders.
link |
I mean, two founders who fall out with each other badly can rip a company to shreds because
link |
they both have an enormous amount of equity, an enormous amount of power, and the capital
link |
structure is a result of that.
link |
They both have an enormous amount of moral authority with the team as a result of each
link |
having that founder role.
link |
And I have witnessed over the years many, many situations in which companies have been
link |
shredded or have suffered near fatal blows because of a falling out between founders.
link |
And the more founders you add, the more risky that becomes.
link |
I don't think there should ever, almost, I mean, you never say never, but multiple founders
link |
beyond two is such an unstable and potentially treacherous situation that I would never ever
link |
recommend going beyond two.
link |
But I do see value in the non technical business and market and outside minded founder teaming
link |
up with the technical founder.
link |
There is a lot of merit to that, but there's a lot of danger in that, lest those two blow
link |
Was it lonely for you?
link |
And that's the drawback.
link |
I mean, if you're a lone founder, there is no other person that you can sit down with
link |
and tackle problems and talk them through who has precisely or nearly precisely your alignment
link |
Your most trusted board member is likely an investor and therefore at the end of the
link |
day has the interest of preferred stock in mind, not common stock.
link |
Your most trusted VP who might own a very significant stake in the company doesn't own
link |
anywhere near your stake in the company.
link |
And so their longterm interests may well be in getting the right level of experience and
link |
credibility necessary to peel off and start their own company or their interests might
link |
be aligned with jumping ship and setting up with a different company, whether it's a rival
link |
or one in a completely different space.
link |
So yeah, being a lone founder is a spectacularly lonely thing and that's a major downside to
link |
What about mentorship?
link |
Because you're a mentor to a lot of people.
link |
Can you find an alleviation to that loneliness and the space of ideas with a good mentor?
link |
With a good mentor or like a mentor who's mentoring you?
link |
Particularly if it's somebody who's been through this very process and has navigated
link |
it successfully and cares enough about you and your well being to give you beautifully
link |
unvarnished advice, that can be a huge, huge thing.
link |
That can assuage things a great deal.
link |
And I had a board member who was not an investor, who basically played that role for me to a
link |
He came in maybe halfway through the company's history though.
link |
I needed that the most in the very earliest days.
link |
Yeah, the loneliness, that's the whole journey of life.
link |
We're always alone together.
link |
It pays to embrace that.
link |
You were saying that there might be something outside of the founder that's also, that you
link |
were promising to be brief on.
link |
So we talked about the founder.
link |
You were asking what makes a great startup.
link |
And great founder is thing number one, but then thing number two, and it's ginormous is a
link |
And so I said so much about the founder because one hopes or one believes that a founder who
link |
is a great hirer is going to be hiring people in charge of critical functions like engineering
link |
and marketing and biz dev and sales and so forth, who themselves are great hirers.
link |
So what needs to radiate from the founder into the team that might be a little bit different
link |
from what's in the gene code of the founder.
link |
The team needs to be fully bought in to the intuitions and the vision of the founder.
link |
But the team needs to have a slightly different thing, which is it's 99% obsession is execution.
link |
It needs to relentlessly hit the milestones, hit the objectives, hit the quarterly goals.
link |
That is 1% vision.
link |
You don't want to lose that, but execution machines.
link |
People who have a demonstrated ability and a demonstrated focus on, yeah, I go from point
link |
to point to point.
link |
I try to beat and raise expectations relentlessly, never fall short, and both sort of blaze and
link |
Not that the path is going to blaze the trail as well.
link |
A good founder is going to trust that VP of sales to have a better sense of what it takes
link |
to build out that organization, what the milestones be, and it's going to be kind of a dialogue
link |
amongst those at the top.
link |
But execution obsession in the team is the next thing.
link |
Yeah, there's some sense where the founder, you talk about sort of the space of ideas
link |
like first principles thinking, asking big difficult questions of future trajectories
link |
or having a big vision and big picture dreams.
link |
You can almost be a dreamer, it feels like, when you're not the founder, but in the space
link |
of sort of leadership.
link |
But when it gets to the ground floor, there has to be execution.
link |
There has to be hitting deadlines.
link |
Sometimes those are attention.
link |
There's something about dreams that are attention with the pragmatic nature of execution.
link |
Not dreams, but sort of ambitious vision, and those have to be, I suppose, coupled.
link |
The vision in the leader and the execution in the software world that would be the programmer
link |
Amongst many other things, you're an incredible conversationalist, a podcast, or you host
link |
a podcast called After On, I mean, there's a million questions I want to ask you here,
link |
but one at the highest level, what do you think makes for a great conversation?
link |
I would say two things, one of two things, and ideally both of two things.
link |
One is if something is very, is beautifully architected, whether it's done deliberately
link |
and methodically and willfully, as when I do it, or whether that just emerges from the
link |
conversation, but something that's beautifully architected, that can create something that's
link |
incredibly powerful and memorable, or something where there's just extraordinary chemistry.
link |
And so with All In, or go way back, you might remember the NPR show Card Talk, I couldn't
link |
care less about auto mechanics myself, but I love that show because the banter between
link |
those two guys was just beyond, it was without any parallel, right?
link |
And some kind of edgy podcast like Red Scare is just really entertaining to me because the
link |
banter between the women on that show is just so good, and All In and that kind of thing.
link |
So I think it's a combination of the arc and the chemistry.
link |
And I think because the arc can be so important, that's why very, very highly produced podcasts
link |
like This American Life, obviously a radio show, but I think of a podcast because that's
link |
how I was consumed or criminal, or a lot of what Wondery does and so forth, that is real
link |
documentary making, and that requires a big team and a big budget relative to the kinds
link |
of things you and I do, but nonetheless, then you got that arc, and that can be really,
link |
really compelling.
link |
But if we go back to conversation, I think it's a combination of structure and chemistry.
link |
Yeah, and I've actually personally have lost, I used to love This American Life, and for
link |
some reason because it lacks the possibility of magic, it's engineered magic.
link |
I've fallen off of it myself as well.
link |
I mean, when I fell madly in love with it during the aughts, it was the only thing going.
link |
They were really smart to adopting, to adopt podcasting as a distribution mechanism early.
link |
Yeah, I think that maybe there's a little bit less magic there now because I think they
link |
have agendas other than necessarily just delighting their listeners with quirky stories, which
link |
I think is what it was all about back in the day and some other things.
link |
Is there like a memorable conversation that you've had on the podcast, whether it was
link |
because it was wild and fun, or one that was exceptionally challenging, maybe challenging
link |
to prepare for, that kind of thing?
link |
Is there something that stands out in your mind that you can draw an insight from?
link |
Yeah, I mean, this no way diminishes the episodes that will not be the answer to these two questions.
link |
An example of something that was really, really challenging to prepare for was George Church.
link |
So as I'm sure you know and as I'm sure many of your listeners know, he is one of the absolute
link |
leading lights in the field of synthetic biology, he's also unbelievably prolific.
link |
His lab is large and has all kinds of efforts have spun out of that.
link |
And what I wanted to make my George Church episode about was, first of all, grounding
link |
people into what is this thing called symbiol?
link |
And that required me to learn a hell of a lot more about symbiol than I knew going into
link |
So there was just this very broad, I mean, I knew much more than the average person going
link |
into that episode, but there was this incredible breadth of grounding that I needed to give
link |
myself in the domain.
link |
And then George does so many interesting things, there's so many interesting things emitting
link |
from his lab that, you know, and he and I had a really good dialogue, he was a great
link |
guide going into it.
link |
Winnowing it down to the three to four that I really wanted us to focus on to create a
link |
sense of wonder and magic in the listener of what could be possible from this very broad
link |
spectrum domain, that was a doozy of a challenge.
link |
That was a tough, tough, tough one to prepare for.
link |
Now, in terms of something that was just wild and fun, unexpected, I mean, by the time we
link |
sat down to interview, I knew where we were going to go.
link |
But just in terms of the idea space, Don Hoffman.
link |
So Don Hoffman is again, some listeners probably know because he's, I think I was the first
link |
podcaster to interview him.
link |
I'm sure some of you are listeners are familiar with him, but he has this unbelievably
link |
contrarian take on the nature of reality.
link |
But it is contrarian in a way that all the ideas are highly internally consistent and
link |
snap together in a way that's just delightful.
link |
And it seems as radically violating of our intuitions and is radically violating of the
link |
probable nature of reality as anything that one can encounter.
link |
But an analogy that he uses, which is very powerful, which is what intuition could possibly
link |
be more powerful than the notion that there is a single unitary direction called down.
link |
And we're on this big flat thing for which there is a thing called down.
link |
And we all know that.
link |
I mean, that's the most intuitive thing that one could probably think of.
link |
And we all know that that ain't true.
link |
So my conversation with Don Hoffman is just wild and full of plot twists and interesting
link |
And the interesting thing about the wildness of his ideas, it's to me, at least as a listener
link |
coupled with he's a good listener and he empathizes with the people who challenge his ideas.
link |
Like what's a better way to phrase that?
link |
He is welcoming of challenge in a way that creates a really fun conversation.
link |
And he loves a peri or a jab, whatever the word is, at his argument, he honors it.
link |
He's a very, very gentle and noncombatative soul.
link |
But then he is very good and takes great evident joy in responding to that in a way that expands
link |
your understanding of his thinking.
link |
Let me as a small tangent of tying up together a previous conversation about listening.com
link |
is streaming and Spotify and the world of podcasting.
link |
So we've been talking about this magical medium of podcasting.
link |
I have a lot of friends at Spotify in the high positions of Spotify as well.
link |
I worry about Spotify and podcasting and the future of podcasting in general that moves
link |
podcasting in the place of maybe walled gardens of sorts.
link |
Since you've had a foot in both worlds, have a foot in both worlds, do you worry as well
link |
about the future of podcasting?
link |
I think walled gardens are really toxic to the medium that they start balkanizing.
link |
So to take an example, I'll take two examples, with music, it was a very, very big deal that
link |
at Rhapsody, we were the first company to get full catalog licenses from all, back then
link |
there were five major music labels and also hundreds and hundreds of indies because you
link |
needed to present the listener with a sense that basically everything is there and there
link |
is essentially no friction to discovering that which is new.
link |
And you can wander this realm and all you really need is a good map, whether it is something
link |
that the editorial team assembled or a good algorithm or whatever it is, but a good map
link |
to wander this domain.
link |
When you start walling things off, A, you undermine the joy of friction free discovery
link |
which is an incredibly valuable thing to deliver to your customer both from a business standpoint
link |
and simply from a humanistic standpoint of you want to bring delight to people.
link |
But it also creates an incredible opening vector for piracy.
link |
And so something that's very different from the Rhapsody slash Spotify slash et cetera
link |
like experience is what we have now in video.
link |
Like wow, is that show on Hulu?
link |
Is it on something like IFC channel?
link |
Is it on Discovery Plus?
link |
And the more frustration and toe stubbing that people encounter when they are seeking
link |
something and they're already paying a very respectable amount of money per month to have
link |
access to content and they can't find it, the more that happens, the more people are
link |
going to be driven to piracy solutions like to hell with it.
link |
Never know where I'm going to find something.
link |
I never know what it's going to cost.
link |
Oftentimes really interesting things are simply unavailable.
link |
That surprises me the number of times that I've been looking for things that I don't
link |
even think are that obscure, that are just, it says not available in your geography period
link |
So I think that that's a mistake.
link |
And then the other thing is for podcasters and lovers of podcasting, we should want to
link |
resist this walled garden thing because A, it does smother this friction free or eradicate
link |
this friction free discovery unless you want to sign up for lots of different services.
link |
And also dims the voice of somebody who might be able to have a far, far, far bigger impact
link |
by reaching far more neurons with their ideas.
link |
I'm going to use an example from, I guess it was probably the nineties or maybe it was
link |
the aughts of Howard Stern who had the biggest megaphone or maybe the second biggest after
link |
Oprah megaphone in popular culture because he was syndicated on hundreds and hundreds
link |
and hundreds of radio stations at a time when terrestrial broadcast was the main thing people
link |
listen to in their car, no more obviously.
link |
But when he decided to go over to, you know, satellite radio, if I can't remember it was
link |
XM or Sirius, maybe they'd already merged at that point.
link |
But when he did that, he made, you know, totally his right to do it, financial calculation
link |
that they were offering him a nine figure sum to do that.
link |
But his audience, because not a lot of people were subscribing to satellite radio at that
link |
point, his audience probably collapsed by, I wouldn't be surprised if it was as much
link |
And so the influence that he had on the culture and his ability to sort of shape conversation
link |
and so forth just got muted.
link |
And also there's a certain sense, especially in modern times where the wall gardens naturally
link |
lead to, I don't know if there's a term for it, but people who are not creatives starting
link |
to have power over the creatives.
link |
And even if they don't stifle it, if they're providing incentives within the platform to
link |
shape, shift, or even completely mutate or distort the show, I mean, imagine somebody
link |
has got a reasonably interesting idea for a podcast and they get signed up with, let's
link |
And then Spotify is going to give them financing to get the things spun up.
link |
And that's great, and Spotify is going to give them a certain amount of really powerful
link |
placement within the visual field of listeners.
link |
But Spotify has conditions for that.
link |
They say, look, we think that your podcast will be much more successful if you dumb
link |
it down about 60%, if you add some silly dirty jokes, if you do this, you do that.
link |
And suddenly the person who is dependent upon Spotify for permission to come into existence
link |
and is really dependent, really wants to please them to get that money in, to get that placement,
link |
really wants to be successful, now all of a sudden you're having a dialogue between
link |
a complete noncreative, some marketing data analytic person at Spotify and a creative
link |
that's going to shape what that show is.
link |
So that could be much more common.
link |
And ultimately having the aggregate, an even bigger impact than the cancellation, let's
link |
say, of somebody who says the wrong word or voices the wrong idea, I mean, that's kind
link |
of what you have, and not kind of, it's what you have with film and TV, is that so much
link |
influence is exerted over the storyline and the plots and the character arcs and all kinds
link |
of things by executives who are completely alien to the experience and the skill set
link |
of being a showrunner in television, being a director in film, that is meant to like,
link |
we can't piss off the Chinese market here or we can't say that or we need to have cast
link |
members that have precisely these demographics reflected or whatever it is, and obviously
link |
despite that extraordinary, at least TV shows are now being made, in terms of film, I think
link |
the quality has nosedived of the average, let's say, American film coming out of a major studio,
link |
the average quality, and my view is nosedived over the past decade is it's kind of everything's
link |
got to be a superhero franchise.
link |
But great stuff gets made despite that, but I have to assume that in some cases, at least
link |
in perhaps many cases, greater stuff would be made if there was less interference from
link |
noncreative executives.
link |
It's like the flip side of that though, and this was the pitch of Spotify because I've
link |
heard their pitch is Netflix, from everybody I've heard that I've spoken with about Netflix
link |
is they actually empower the creator.
link |
I don't know what the heck they do, but they do a good job of giving creators, even the
link |
crazy ones, like Tim Dillon, like Joe Rogan, like comedians, freedom to be their crazy
link |
And the result is like some of the greatest television, some of the greatest cinema, whatever
link |
you call it, ever made.
link |
And I don't know what the heck they're doing.
link |
It's a relative thing.
link |
From what I understand, it's a relative thing.
link |
They're interfering far, far, far less than NBC or AMC would have interfered.
link |
So it's a relative thing.
link |
And obviously, they're the ones writing the checks, and they're the ones giving the platforms.
link |
They've ever been right to their own influence, obviously.
link |
But my understanding is that they're relatively way more hands off, and that has had a demonstrable
link |
effect, because I agree, some of the greatest produced video content of all time.
link |
An incredibly inordinate percentage of that is coming out from Netflix in just a few years
link |
when the history of cinema goes back many, many decades.
link |
And Spotify wants to be that for podcasting, and I hope they do become that for podcasting,
link |
but I'm wearing my skeptical goggles or skeptical hat, whatever the heck it is, because it's
link |
And it requires letting go of power, giving power to the creatives.
link |
It requires pivoting, which large companies, even as innovative as Spotify is, still now
link |
a large company pivoting into a whole new space is very tricky and difficult.
link |
So I'm skeptical, but hopeful.
link |
What advice would you give to a young person today about life, about career?
link |
We talked about startups, we talked about music, we talked about the end of humans
link |
Is there advice you would give to a young person today, maybe in college, maybe in high
link |
school about their life?
link |
I mean, there's so many domains you can advise on, and I'm not going to give advice on life
link |
because I fear that I would drift into sort of hallmark bromides that really wouldn't
link |
be all that distinctive, and they might be entirely true.
link |
Because the greatest insights about life turn out to be the kinds of things you'd see on
link |
So I'm going to steer clear of that.
link |
On a career level, one thing that I think is unintuitive but unbelievably powerful is
link |
to focus not necessarily on being you in the top sliver of 1% in excelling at one domain
link |
that's important and valuable.
link |
But to think in terms of intersections of two domains, which are rare but valuable.
link |
And there's a couple reasons for this.
link |
The first is in an incredibly competitive world that is so much more competitive than
link |
was when I was coming out of school, radically more competitive than when I was coming out
link |
of school, to navigate your way to the absolute pinnacle of any domain.
link |
Say you want to be really, really great at Python, pick a language, whatever it is.
link |
You want to be one of the world's greatest Python developers, JavaScript, whatever your
link |
Hopefully it's not cobalt.
link |
By the way, if you listen to this, I am actually looking for a cobalt expert to interview because
link |
I find language fascinating and there's not many of them.
link |
So please, if you know a world expert in cobalt or Fortran, both actually.
link |
Or if you are one.
link |
Or if you are one, please email me.
link |
So I mean, if you're going out there and you want to be in the top sliver 1% of Python
link |
developers, it's a very, very difficult thing to do.
link |
Particularly if you want to be number one in the world, something like that.
link |
And we use an analogy as I had a friend in college who was on a track and indeed succeeded
link |
at that to become an Olympic medalist and I think was 100 meter breaststroke.
link |
And he mortgaged a significant percentage of his sort of college life to that goal.
link |
I should say dedicated or invested or whatever you wanted to say, but he didn't participate
link |
in a lot of the social, a lot of the late night, a lot of the this, a lot of the that
link |
because he was training so much.
link |
And obviously he also wanted to keep up with his academics.
link |
And at the end of the day, story as a happy man ending in that he did metal in that bronze,
link |
not gold, but holy cow, anybody who gets an Olympic medal.
link |
That's an extraordinary thing.
link |
And at that moment, he was, you know, one of the top three people on earth at that thing.
link |
But wow, how hard to do that.
link |
How many thousands of other people went down that path and made similar sacrifices and didn't
link |
It's very, very hard to do that.
link |
Whereas, you know, use a personal example.
link |
When I came out of business school, I went to a good business school and learned the
link |
things that were there to be learned.
link |
And I came out and I entered a world with lots of Harvard business school, by the way.
link |
Yes, it was Harvard.
link |
You're the first person who went there who didn't say where you went, which is beautiful.
link |
I appreciate that.
link |
Well, it's one of the greatest business schools in the world.
link |
It's a whole another fascinating conversation about that world.
link |
But anyway, so I learned the things that you, you learn getting a B and MBA from a, from
link |
And I entered a world that had hundreds of thousands of people who had MBAs, probably
link |
hundreds of thousands who have them from, you know, top 10 programs.
link |
But so I was not particularly great at being an MBA person.
link |
I was inexperienced relative to most of them.
link |
And there were a lot of them, but it was okay, MBA person, right, newly minted.
link |
But then as it happened, I found my way into working on the commercial internet in 1994.
link |
And I went to a, at the time, giant and hot computing company called Silicon Graphics,
link |
which had enough heft and enough, you know, headcount that they could take on and experienced
link |
MBAs and try to train them in the world of Silicon Valley.
link |
But within that comp, that company that had an enormous amount of surface area and was
link |
touching very a lot of areas and was have had unbelievably smart people at the time.
link |
It was not surprising that SGI started doing really interesting and innovative and trail
link |
analyzing stuff on the internet before almost anybody else.
link |
And part of the reason was that our founder Jim Clark went off to cofound Netscape with
link |
So the whole company was like, wait, what was that?
link |
What's this commercial internet thing?
link |
So I end up in that group.
link |
Now, in terms of being a commercial internet person or a worldwide web person, again, I
link |
was, in that case, barely credentialed.
link |
I couldn't write a stitch of code, but I got a had a pretty good mind for grasping the
link |
business and cultural significance of this transition.
link |
And this was, again, we were talking earlier about emerging areas.
link |
Within a few months, you know, I was in the relatively top echelon of people in terms
link |
of just sheer experience, because like, let's say it was five months into the program, there
link |
were only so many people who had been doing worldwide web stuff commercially for five
link |
You know, and then what was interesting, though, was the intersection of those two things.
link |
The commercial web, as it turned out, grew into an unbelievable vastness.
link |
And so by being a pretty good OK web person and a pretty good OK MBA person, that intersection
link |
put me in a very rare group, which was web oriented MBAs.
link |
And in those early days, you could probably count on your fingers the number of people
link |
who came out of really competitive programs who were doing stuff full time on the internet.
link |
And there was a greater appetite for great software developers in the internet domain,
link |
but there was an appetite and a real one and a rapidly growing one for MBA thinkers who
link |
were also seasoned and networked in the emerging world of the commercial worldwide web.
link |
And so finding an intersection of two things you can be pretty good at, but is a rare intersection
link |
and a special intersection is probably a much easier way to make yourself distinguishable
link |
and in demand from the world than trying to be world class at this one thing.
link |
So in the intersection is where there's to be discovered opportunity and success.
link |
That's really interesting.
link |
There's actually more intersection of fields and fields themselves, right?
link |
Yeah, I mean, I'll give you kind of a funny hypothetical here, but it's one I've been
link |
thinking about a little bit.
link |
There's a lot of people in crypto right now.
link |
It'd be hard to be in the top percentile of crypto people, whether it comes from just
link |
having a sheer grasp of the industry, a great network within the industry, technological
link |
skills, whatever you want to call it.
link |
And then there's this parallel world, an orthogonal world called crop insurance.
link |
And I'm sure that's a big world.
link |
Crop insurance is a very, very big deal, particularly in the wealthy and industrialized world where
link |
people, there's sophisticated financial markets, rule of law, and large agricultural concerns
link |
that are worried about that.
link |
Somewhere out there is somebody who is pretty crypto savvy, but probably not top 1%, but
link |
also has kind of been in the crop insurance world and understands that a hell of a lot
link |
better than almost anybody who's ever had anything to do with cryptocurrency.
link |
And so I think that decentralized finance, DeFi, one of the interesting and I think very
link |
world positive things that I think it's almost inevitably will be bringing to the world is
link |
crop insurance for small holding farmers, people who have tiny, tiny plots of land in places
link |
like India, et cetera, where there is no crop insurance available to them because just the
link |
financial infrastructure doesn't exist.
link |
But it's highly imaginable that using oracle networks that are trusted outside deliverers
link |
of factual information about rainfall in a particular area, you can start giving drought
link |
insurance to folks like this.
link |
The right person to come up with that idea is not a crypto whiz who doesn't know a blasted
link |
thing about small holding farmers.
link |
The right person to come up with that is not a crop insurance whiz who isn't quite sure
link |
what Bitcoin is, but somebody occupies that intersection.
link |
That's just one of gazillion examples of things that are going to come along for somebody
link |
who occupies the right intersection of skills, but isn't necessarily the number one person
link |
at either one of those expertises.
link |
Just making me kind of wonder about my own little things that I'm average at and seeing
link |
where the intersections that could be exploited.
link |
That's pretty profound.
link |
So we talked quite a bit about the end of the world and how we're both optimistic about
link |
us figuring our way out.
link |
Unfortunately, for now at least, both you and I are going to die one day way too soon.
link |
First of all, that sucks.
link |
I mean, one, I'd like to ask if you ponder your own mortality, what kind of wisdom inside
link |
does it give you about your own life?
link |
And broadly, do you think about your life and what the heck it's all about?
link |
Yeah, with respect to pondering mortality, I do try to do that as little as possible
link |
because there's not a lot I can do about it.
link |
But it's inevitably there and I think that what it does when you think about it in the
link |
right way is it makes you realize how unbelievably rare and precious the moments that we have
link |
here are and therefore how consequential the decisions that we make about how to spend
link |
Do you do those 17 nagging emails or do you have dinner with somebody who's really important
link |
to you who haven't seen in three and a half years?
link |
If you had an infinite expanse of time in front of you, you might well rationally conclude
link |
I'm going to do those emails because collectively they're rather important and I have tens of
link |
thousands of years to catch up with my buddy Tim.
link |
But I think the scarcity of the time that we have helps us choose the right things if
link |
we're tuned to that and we're tuned to the context that mortality puts over the consequence
link |
of every decision we make of how to spend our time.
link |
That doesn't mean that we're all very good at it, doesn't mean I'm very good at it.
link |
But it does add a dimension of choice and significance to everything that we elect to
link |
It's kind of funny that you say you try to think about it as little as possible.
link |
I would venture to say you probably think about the end of human civilization more
link |
than you do about your own life.
link |
You're probably right.
link |
Because that feels like a problem that could be solved.
link |
Where's the end of my own life can't be solved?
link |
Well, I don't know.
link |
I mean, there's transhumanists who have incredible optimism about near or intermediate future
link |
therapies that could really, really change human lifespan.
link |
I really hope that they're right, but I don't have a whole lot to add to that project because
link |
I'm not a life scientist myself.
link |
I'm in part also afraid of immortality, not as much, but close to as I'm afraid of death
link |
It feels like the things that give us meaning, give us meaning because of the scarcity that
link |
I'm almost afraid of having too much of stuff.
link |
Although if there was something that said, this can expand your enjoyable well spanned
link |
or lifespan by 75 years, I'm all in.
link |
Well, part of the reason I wanted to not do a startup, really the only thing that worries
link |
me about doing a startup is if it becomes successful because of how much I dream, how
link |
much I'm driven to be successful, that there will not be enough silence in my life, enough
link |
scarcity to appreciate the moments I appreciate now as deeply as I appreciate them now.
link |
There's a simplicity to my life now that it feels like you might disappear with success.
link |
I wouldn't say might.
link |
I think if you start a company that has ambitious investors, ambitious for the returns that they'd
link |
like to see, that has ambitious employees, ambitious for the career trajectories they
link |
want to be on and so forth, and is driven by your own ambition, there's a profound monogamy
link |
It is very, very hard to carve out time to be creative, to be peaceful, to be so forth
link |
because of with every new employee that you hire, that's one more mouth to feed.
link |
With every new investor that you take on, that's one more person to whom you really
link |
do want to deliver great returns.
link |
As the valuation ticks up, the threshold to delivering great returns for your investors
link |
There is an extraordinary monogamy to being a founder CEO, above all, for the first few
link |
years and first in people's minds could be as many as 10 or 15.
link |
I guess the fundamental calculation is whether the passion for the vision is greater than
link |
the cost you'll pay.
link |
It's all opportunity cost.
link |
It's all opportunity cost, in terms of time and attention and experience.
link |
Some things, everyone's different, but I'm less calculating.
link |
Some things you just can't help.
link |
Sometimes you just dive in.
link |
You can do balance feats all you want on this versus that and what's the right.
link |
I've done in the past and it's never worked.
link |
It's always been like, okay, what's my gut screaming at me to do?
link |
But about the meaning of life, you ever think about that?
link |
I mean, this is where I'm going to go all hallmarking on you, but I think that there's
link |
a few things and one of them is certainly love.
link |
The love that we experience and feel and cause to well up in others is something that's just
link |
so profound and goes beyond almost anything else that we can do.
link |
Whether that is something that lies in the past, like maybe there was somebody that you
link |
were dating and loved very profoundly in college and haven't seen in years, I don't think the
link |
significance of that love is any way diminished by the fact that it had a notional beginning
link |
The fact is that you experience that and you trigger that in somebody else and that happened.
link |
It certainly doesn't have to be love of romantic partners alone.
link |
It's family members.
link |
It's love between friends.
link |
It's love between creatures.
link |
I had a dog for 10 years who passed away a while ago and experienced unbelievable love
link |
It can be love of that which you create, and we were talking about the flow states that
link |
we enter and the pride or lack of pride or in the Minsky case, your hatred of that which
link |
Nonetheless, the creations that we make and whether it's the love or the joy or the engagement
link |
or the perspective shift that that cascades into other minds, I think that's a big, big,
link |
big part of the meaning of life.
link |
It's not something that everybody participates in necessarily, although I think we all do
link |
at least in a very local level by the example that we set by the interactions that we have,
link |
but for people who create works that travel far and reach people they'll never meet, that
link |
reach countries they'll never visit, that reach people perhaps that come along and come
link |
across their ideas or their works or their stories or their aesthetic creations of other
link |
sorts long after they're dead.
link |
I think that's really, really big part of the fabric of the meaning of life.
link |
All these things like love and creation, I think really is what it's all about.
link |
Part of love is also the loss of it.
link |
There's a Louie episode with Louie CK.
link |
There's an old gentleman's giving him advice that sometimes the sweetest parts of love
link |
is when you lose it and you remember it, you reminisce on the loss of it.
link |
There's some aspect in which, and I have many of those in my own life that almost like the
link |
memories of it and the intensity of emotion you still feel about it is the sweetest part.
link |
You feel like after saying goodbye, you relive it.
link |
That goodbye is also part of love.
link |
The loss of it is also part of love.
link |
It's back to that scarcity.
link |
I won't say the loss is the best part personally, but it definitely is an aspect of it.
link |
The grief you might feel about something that's gone makes you realize what a big deal it
link |
Speaking of which, this particular journey we went on together, come to an end.
link |
I have to say goodbye, and I hate saying goodbye, Rob.
link |
This is truly an honor.
link |
I've really been a big fan.
link |
People should definitely check out your podcast, your master, what you do in the conversation
link |
space and the writing space.
link |
It's been an incredible honor that you'll show up here and spend this time with me.
link |
I really, really appreciate it.
link |
Well, it's been a huge honor to be here as well and also a fan and heaven for a long
link |
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Rob Reed, and thank you to Athletic Greens,
link |
Bell Campo, Fundrise, and NetSuite.
link |
Check them out in the description to support this podcast.
link |
And now, let me leave you with some words from Plato.
link |
We can easily forgive a child who's afraid of the dark.
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The real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.
link |
Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.