back to index

Douglas Lenat: Cyc and the Quest to Solve Common Sense Reasoning in AI | Lex Fridman Podcast #221


small model | large model

link |
00:00:00.000
The following is a conversation with Doug Lennett, creator of Psyche, a system that for close to 40
link |
00:00:06.800
years and still today has sought to solve the core problem of artificial intelligence, the
link |
00:00:13.120
acquisition of common sense knowledge and the use of that knowledge to think, to reason, and to
link |
00:00:19.200
understand the world. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description.
link |
00:00:24.400
As a side note, let me say that in the excitement of the modern era of machine learning, it is
link |
00:00:30.400
easy to forget just how little we understand exactly how to build the kind of intelligence
link |
00:00:36.880
that matches the power of the human mind. To me, many of the core ideas behind Psyche,
link |
00:00:42.480
in some form, in actuality or in spirit, will likely be part of the AI system that achieves
link |
00:00:48.880
general superintelligence. But perhaps more importantly, solving this problem of common
link |
00:00:54.480
sense knowledge will help us humans understand our own minds, the nature of truth, and finally,
link |
00:01:01.040
how to be more rational and more kind to each other. This is the Lex Friedman podcast,
link |
00:01:07.280
and here is my conversation with Doug Lennett. Psyche is a project launched by you in 1984
link |
00:01:15.520
and still is active today, whose goal is to assemble a knowledge base that spans the basic
link |
00:01:20.960
concepts and rules about how the world works. In other words, it hopes to capture common sense
link |
00:01:26.720
knowledge, which is a lot harder than it sounds. Can you elaborate on this mission and maybe perhaps
link |
00:01:32.720
speak to the various sub goals within this mission? When I was a faculty member in the
link |
00:01:39.520
computer science department at Stanford, my colleagues and I did research in all sorts of
link |
00:01:46.640
artificial intelligence programs, so natural language understanding programs, robots,
link |
00:01:53.440
expert systems, and so on. And we kept hitting the very same brick wall. Our systems would have
link |
00:02:02.160
impressive early successes. And so, if your only goal was academic, namely to get enough material
link |
00:02:11.680
to write a journal article, that might actually suffice. But if you're really trying to get AI,
link |
00:02:18.720
then you have to somehow get past the brick wall. And the brick wall was the programs didn't have
link |
00:02:25.120
what we would call common sense. They didn't have general world knowledge. They didn't really
link |
00:02:29.680
understand what they were doing, what they were saying, what they were being asked. And so, very
link |
00:02:36.400
much like a clever dog performing tricks, we could get them to do tricks, but they never really
link |
00:02:43.200
understood what they were doing, sort of like when you get a dog to fetch your morning newspaper.
link |
00:02:49.040
The dog might do that successfully, but the dog has no idea what a newspaper is or what it says
link |
00:02:54.000
or anything like that. What does it mean to understand something? Can you maybe elaborate
link |
00:02:58.560
on that a little bit? Is it, is understanding an action of like combining little things together,
link |
00:03:04.640
like through inference, or is understanding the wisdom you gain over time that forms a knowledge?
link |
00:03:09.920
I think of understanding more like a, think of it more like the ground you stand on, which
link |
00:03:19.200
could be very shaky, could be very unsafe, but most of the time is not because underneath it is
link |
00:03:27.120
more ground and eventually rock and other things, but layer after layer after layer,
link |
00:03:34.480
that solid foundation is there. And you rarely need to think about it. You rarely need to count on it,
link |
00:03:40.880
but occasionally you do. And I've never used this analogy before, so bear with me. But I think the
link |
00:03:48.240
same thing is true in terms of getting computers to understand things, which is you ask a computer
link |
00:03:55.520
a question, for instance, Alexa or some robot or something, and maybe it gets the right answer.
link |
00:04:03.200
But if you were asking that of a human, you could also say things like, why? Or how might you be
link |
00:04:10.720
wrong about this or something like that? And the person, you know, would answer you. And, you know,
link |
00:04:17.120
it might be a little annoying if you have a small child and they keep asking why questions in series,
link |
00:04:22.640
eventually you get to the point where you throw up your hands and say, I don't know, it's just the
link |
00:04:26.480
way the world is. But for many layers, you actually have that, that layered solid foundation of support
link |
00:04:35.920
so that when you need it, you can count on it. And when do you need it? Well, when things are
link |
00:04:41.360
unexpected, when you come up against a situation, which is novel, for instance, when you're driving,
link |
00:04:46.960
it may be fine to have a small program, a small set of rules that cover, you know, 99% of the cases,
link |
00:04:55.680
but that 1% of the time when something strange happens, you really need to draw on common sense.
link |
00:05:01.440
For instance, my wife and I were driving recently, and there was a trash truck in front of us.
link |
00:05:08.480
And I guess they had packed it too full and the back exploded. And trash bags went everywhere,
link |
00:05:15.600
and we had to make a split second decision. Are we going to slam on our brakes? Are we
link |
00:05:22.000
going to swerve into another lane? Are we going to just run it over? Because there are cars all
link |
00:05:27.440
around us. And, you know, in front of us was a large trash bag, and we know what we throw away
link |
00:05:34.160
in trash bags, probably not a safe thing to run over. Over on the left was a bunch of fast food
link |
00:05:41.360
restaurant trash bags. And it's like, oh, well, those things are just like styrofoam and leftover
link |
00:05:46.560
food. We'll run over that. And so that was a safe thing for us to do. Now, that's the kind
link |
00:05:51.760
of thing that's going to happen maybe once in your life. But the point is that there's almost no
link |
00:05:59.440
telling what little bits of knowledge about the world you might actually need in some situations
link |
00:06:06.240
which we're unforeseen. But see, when you sit on that mountain or that ground that goes deep
link |
00:06:14.000
of knowledge in order to make a split second decision about fast food, trash, or random
link |
00:06:20.560
trash from the back of a trash truck, you need to be able to leverage that ground you stand on
link |
00:06:28.880
in some way. It's not merely, you know, it's not enough to just have a lot of ground to stand on.
link |
00:06:35.280
It's your ability to leverage it, to utilize in a split, like integrate it all together to
link |
00:06:40.960
make that split second decision. And I suppose understanding isn't just having common sense
link |
00:06:50.800
knowledge to access. It's the act of accessing, accessing it somehow, like correctly filtering
link |
00:06:59.920
out the parts of the knowledge that are not useful, selecting only the useful parts, and effectively
link |
00:07:06.160
making conclusive decisions. So let's tease apart two different tasks, really, both of which
link |
00:07:12.240
are incredibly important and even necessary. If you're going to have this in a useful,
link |
00:07:18.640
useful, usable fashion, as opposed to, say, like library books sitting on a shelf,
link |
00:07:23.680
and so on, where the knowledge might be there. But, you know, if a fire comes,
link |
00:07:28.960
the books are going to burn because they don't know what's in them, and they're just going to
link |
00:07:33.040
sit there while they burn. So there are two aspects of using the knowledge. One is a kind
link |
00:07:40.480
of a theoretical, how is it possible at all? And then the second aspect of what you said is,
link |
00:07:47.040
how can you do it quickly enough? So how can you do it at all is something that philosophers
link |
00:07:54.000
have grappled with. And fortunately, philosophers 100 years ago and even earlier, developed a kind
link |
00:08:02.240
of formal language. Like English, it's called predicate logic or first order logic or something
link |
00:08:12.240
like predicate calculus and so on. So there's a way of representing things in this formal language,
link |
00:08:18.640
which enables a mechanical procedure to sort of grind through and algorithmically produce all of
link |
00:08:29.040
the same logical entailments, all the same logical conclusions that you or I would from that same
link |
00:08:36.000
set of pieces of information that are represented that way. So that sort of raises a couple
link |
00:08:44.960
questions. One is, how do you get all this information from say observations and English and
link |
00:08:51.600
so on into this logical form? And secondly, how can you then efficiently run these algorithms to
link |
00:08:59.120
actually get the information you need in the case I mentioned in a tenth of a second, rather than say
link |
00:09:05.680
in 10 hours or 10,000 years of computation? And those are both really important questions.
link |
00:09:13.440
And like a corollary addition to the first one is, how many such things do you need to gather
link |
00:09:21.200
for it to be useful in certain contexts? So like what in order, you mentioned philosophers,
link |
00:09:27.440
in order to capture this world and represent it in a logical way and with a formal logic,
link |
00:09:33.920
like how many statements are required? Is it five? Is it 10? Is it 10 trillion? Is it like that?
link |
00:09:41.120
That's as far as I understand is probably still an open question. It may forever be an open question
link |
00:09:48.480
to say definitively about, to describe the universe perfectly. How many facts do you need?
link |
00:09:56.560
I guess I'm going to disappoint you by giving you an actual answer to your question.
link |
00:10:01.120
Well, no, this sounds exciting. Yes. Okay. So now we have like three things to talk about.
link |
00:10:09.600
I'll keep adding more. Although it's okay. The first and the third are related.
link |
00:10:13.600
So let's leave the efficiency question aside for now. So how does all this information get
link |
00:10:21.360
represented in logical form so that these algorithms, resolution, theorem proving,
link |
00:10:28.800
and other algorithms can actually grind through all the logical consequences of what you said?
link |
00:10:33.920
And that ties into your question about how many of these things do you need? Because if the answer
link |
00:10:40.640
is small enough, then by hand, you could write them out one at a time. So in the early 1984,
link |
00:10:53.360
I held a meeting at Stanford, where I was a faculty member there, where we assembled
link |
00:11:00.960
about half a dozen of the smartest people I know, people like Alan Newell and Marvin Minsky,
link |
00:11:10.560
and Alan Kay, and a few others. Was Feynman there by chance? Because he
link |
00:11:17.120
liked your, he commented about your system you risked at the time. No, he wasn't part of this
link |
00:11:22.240
meeting. That's a heck of a meeting anyway. I think Ed Feigenbaum was there. I think
link |
00:11:26.880
Josh Lederberg was there. So we have all these different smart people, and we came together
link |
00:11:37.280
to address the question that you raised, which is, if it's important to represent
link |
00:11:42.880
common sense knowledge and world knowledge in order for AIs to not be brittle, in order for AIs
link |
00:11:49.120
not to just have the veneer of intelligence. Well, how many pieces of common sense, how many,
link |
00:11:55.760
if then, rules, for instance, would we have to actually write in order to essentially cover
link |
00:12:02.160
what people expect perfect strangers to already know about the world? And I expected there would
link |
00:12:09.760
be an enormous divergence of opinion and computation, but amazingly, everyone got an answer which was
link |
00:12:18.160
around a million. And one person got the answer by saying, well, look, you can only burn into human
link |
00:12:28.000
long term memory a certain number of things per unit time, like maybe one every 30 seconds or
link |
00:12:33.760
something. And other than that, it's just short term memory and it flows away like water and so
link |
00:12:38.720
on. So by the time you're say 10 years old or so, how many things could you possibly have burned
link |
00:12:45.040
into your long term memory? And it's like about a million. Another person went in a completely
link |
00:12:50.160
different direction and said, well, if you look at the number of words in a dictionary, not a whole
link |
00:12:57.280
dictionary, but for someone to essentially be considered to be fluent in a language, how many
link |
00:13:03.680
words would they need to know and then about how many things about each word would you have to tell
link |
00:13:09.280
it? And so they got to a million that way. Another person said, well, let's actually look at one
link |
00:13:17.040
single short one volume desk encyclopedia article. And so we'll look at what was like a four paragraph
link |
00:13:27.200
article or something I think about grebes. Grebes are a type of waterfowl. And if we were going to
link |
00:13:33.760
sit there and represent every single thing that was there, how many assertions or rules or statements
link |
00:13:41.200
would we have to write in this logical language and so on and then multiply that by all of the
link |
00:13:45.840
number of articles that there were and so on. So all of these estimates came out with a million.
link |
00:13:51.920
And so if you do the math, it turns out that like, oh, well, then maybe in something like
link |
00:13:59.040
100 person years, in one or two person centuries, we could actually get this written down by hand.
link |
00:14:09.920
And a marvelous coincidence, opportunity existed right at that point in time, the early 1980s.
link |
00:14:19.360
There was something called the Japanese fifth generation computing effort. Japan had threatened
link |
00:14:25.440
to do in computing and AI and hardware, but they had just finished doing in consumer electronics
link |
00:14:32.000
on the automotive industry, namely resting control away from the United States and more
link |
00:14:36.880
generally away from the West. And so America was scared. And Congress did something. That's how
link |
00:14:44.240
you know it was a long time ago because Congress did something. Congress passed something called
link |
00:14:48.720
the National Cooperative Research Act, NCRA. And what it said was, hey, all you big American
link |
00:14:54.800
companies, that's also how you know it was a long time ago because they were American companies
link |
00:14:59.200
rather than multinational companies. Hey, all you big American companies, normally it would be an
link |
00:15:04.880
antitrust violation if you colluded on R&D. But we promise for the next 10 years, we won't prosecute
link |
00:15:13.120
any of you if you do that to help combat this threat. And so overnight, the first two consortia,
link |
00:15:20.880
Research Consortia in America sprang up, both of them coincidentally in Austin, Texas,
link |
00:15:27.360
one called SEMitech focusing on hardware chips and so on, and then one called MCC, the Micro
link |
00:15:33.760
Electronics and Computer Technology Corporation, focusing on more on software, on databases and
link |
00:15:40.160
AI and natural language understanding and things like that. And I got the opportunity,
link |
00:15:46.880
thanks to my friend Woody Bledsoe, who was one of the people who founded that, to come and be
link |
00:15:53.600
its principal scientist. And he said, you know, and he sent Admiral Bob Inman, who was the person
link |
00:15:59.680
running MCC, came and talked to me and said, look professor, you know, you're talking about doing
link |
00:16:05.120
this project, it's going to involve person centuries of effort. You've only got a handful of graduate
link |
00:16:11.760
students, you do the math, it's going to take you like, you know, longer than the rest of your life
link |
00:16:17.680
to finish this project. But if you move to the wilds of Austin, Texas, we'll put 10 times as
link |
00:16:22.640
many people on it and, you know, you'll be done in a few years. And so that was pretty exciting.
link |
00:16:28.560
And so I did that, I took my leave from Stanford, I came to Austin, I worked for MCC. And good news
link |
00:16:37.760
and bad news, the bad news is that all of us were off by an order of magnitude. That it turns out
link |
00:16:43.200
what you need are tens of millions of these pieces of knowledge about on every day, sort of like,
link |
00:16:50.720
if you have a coffee cup with stuff in it, and you turn it upside down, the stuff in it's going
link |
00:16:55.040
to fall out. So you need tens of millions of pieces of knowledge like that, even if you take
link |
00:17:00.720
trouble to make each one as general as it possibly could be. But the good news was that thanks to
link |
00:17:11.600
initially the fifth generation effort, and then later US government agency funding and so on,
link |
00:17:18.320
we were able to get enough funding, not for a couple of person centuries of time, but for
link |
00:17:24.240
a couple person millennia of time, which is what we've spent since 1984, getting psych to contain
link |
00:17:31.120
the tens of millions of rules that it needs in order to really capture and span sort of not
link |
00:17:38.320
all of human knowledge, but the things that you assume other people, the things you count on other
link |
00:17:44.000
people knowing. And so by now we've done that. And the good news is since you've waited 38 years,
link |
00:17:53.280
just about to talk to me, we're about at the end of that process. So most of what we're doing now
link |
00:18:00.880
is not putting in even what you would consider common sense, but more putting in domain specific
link |
00:18:06.480
application specific knowledge about healthcare in a certain hospital or about oil pipes getting
link |
00:18:18.720
clogged up or whatever the applications happen to be. So we've almost come full circle and we're
link |
00:18:24.480
doing things very much like the expert systems of the 1970s and the 1980s, except instead of
link |
00:18:30.400
resting on nothing and being brittle, they're now resting on this massive pyramid, if you will,
link |
00:18:36.160
this massive lattice of common sense knowledge so that when things go wrong, when something
link |
00:18:41.520
unexpected happens, they can fall back on more and more and more general principles, eventually
link |
00:18:47.680
bottoming out in things like, for instance, if we have a problem with the microphone, one of the
link |
00:18:53.200
things you'll do is unplug it, plug it in again and hope for the best, because that's one of the
link |
00:18:59.200
general pieces of knowledge you have in dealing with electronic equipment or software systems or
link |
00:19:04.720
things like that. Is there a basic principle like that? Is it possible to encode something
link |
00:19:09.520
that generally captures this idea of turn it off and turn it back on and see if it fixes?
link |
00:19:15.520
Oh, absolutely. That's one of the things that's like news.
link |
00:19:19.440
That's actually one of the fundamental laws of nature, I believe.
link |
00:19:25.040
I wouldn't call it a law. It seems to work every time, so it sure looks like a law. I don't know.
link |
00:19:34.240
So that basically covered the resources needed and then we had to devise a method to actually
link |
00:19:42.000
figure out, well, what are the tens of millions of things that we need to tell the system?
link |
00:19:47.200
And for that, we found a few techniques which worked really well. One is to take any piece of
link |
00:19:54.720
text almost, it could be an advertisement, it could be a transcript, it could be a novel,
link |
00:19:59.920
it could be an article, and don't pay attention to the actual type that's there, the black space
link |
00:20:07.280
on the white page. Pay attention to the complement of that, the white space, if you will. So
link |
00:20:12.400
what did the writer of this sentence assume that the reader already knew about the world?
link |
00:20:17.760
For instance, if they used a pronoun, why did they think that you would be able to
link |
00:20:24.880
understand what the intended referent of that pronoun was? If they used an ambiguous word,
link |
00:20:30.080
how did they think that you would be able to figure out what they meant by that word?
link |
00:20:35.120
The other thing we look at is the gap between one sentence and the next one. What are all the
link |
00:20:41.120
things that the writer expected you to fill in and infer occurred between the end of one sentence
link |
00:20:46.880
and the beginning of the other? So like if the sentence says, Fred Smith robbed the third national
link |
00:20:52.960
bank period, he was sentenced to 20 years in prison period. Well, between the first sentence
link |
00:21:00.400
and the second, you're expected to infer things like Fred got caught, Fred got arrested, Fred went
link |
00:21:07.440
to jail, Fred had a trial, Fred was found guilty, and so on. If my next sentence starts out with
link |
00:21:13.440
something like the judge, then you assume it's the judge at his trial. If my next sentence starts
link |
00:21:19.440
out something like the arresting officer, you assume that it was the police officer who arrested
link |
00:21:24.960
him after he committed the crime, and so on. So those are two techniques for getting that
link |
00:21:31.920
knowledge. The other thing we sometimes look at is sort of like fake news or sort of humorous
link |
00:21:39.440
onion headlines or headlines in the weekly world news, if you know what that is, or the national
link |
00:21:46.080
inquire, where it's like, oh, we don't believe this, then we introspect on why don't we believe it.
link |
00:21:51.520
So there are things like B17 lands on the moon. It's like, what do we know about the world that
link |
00:21:59.040
causes us to believe that that's just silly or something like that? Or another thing we look
link |
00:22:05.040
for are contradictions, things which can't both be true. And we say to it, what is it that we know
link |
00:22:12.720
that causes us to know that both of these can't be true at the same time? For instance, in one of
link |
00:22:18.560
the weekly world news editions, in one article it talked about how Elvis was cited, even though he
link |
00:22:26.480
was getting on in years and so on. And another article in the same one talked about people
link |
00:22:32.000
seeing Elvis's ghost. So it's like, why do we believe that at least one of these articles must
link |
00:22:38.320
be wrong and so on? So we have a series of techniques like that that enable our people,
link |
00:22:44.320
and by now we have about 50 people working full time on this and have for decades. So we've put
link |
00:22:50.880
in the thousands of person years of effort. We've built up these tens of millions of rules. We
link |
00:22:56.400
constantly police the system to make sure that we're saying things as generally as we possibly can.
link |
00:23:04.640
So you don't want to say things like, no mouse is also a moose, because if you said things like
link |
00:23:12.400
that, then you'd have to add another one or two or three zeros onto the number of assertions you'd
link |
00:23:19.440
actually have to have. So at some point, we generalize things more and more, and we get to a point
link |
00:23:24.480
where we say, oh yeah, for any two biological taxons, if we don't know explicitly that one is a
link |
00:23:30.880
generalization of another, then almost certainly they're disjoint. A member of one is not going to
link |
00:23:36.400
be a member of the other and so on. And the same thing with the Elvis and the ghost, it has nothing
link |
00:23:41.040
to do with Elvis. It's more about human nature and the mortality and that kind of stuff.
link |
00:23:46.800
Right. In general, things are not both alive and dead at the same time.
link |
00:23:51.120
Unless special cats in theoretical physics examples.
link |
00:23:55.520
Well, that raises a couple important points.
link |
00:23:58.160
Well, that's the onion headline situation type of thing. Okay, sorry.
link |
00:24:01.440
But no, no. So what you bring up is this really important point of like, well,
link |
00:24:04.880
how do you handle exceptions and inconsistencies and so on? And one of the hardest lessons for
link |
00:24:12.880
us to learn, it took us about five years to really grit our teeth and learn to love it,
link |
00:24:20.480
is we had to give up global consistency. So the knowledge base can no longer be
link |
00:24:26.080
consistent. So this is a kind of scary thought. I grew up watching Star Trek,
link |
00:24:30.400
and anytime the computer was inconsistent, it would either freeze up or explode or take over
link |
00:24:36.000
the world or something bad would happen. Or if you come from a mathematics background,
link |
00:24:41.360
once you can prove false, you can prove anything. So that's not good and so on.
link |
00:24:46.320
So that's why the old knowledge based systems were all very, very consistent.
link |
00:24:52.720
But the trouble is that by and large, our models of the world, the way we talk about the world and
link |
00:24:58.880
so on, there are all sorts of inconsistencies that creep in here and there that will sort of kill
link |
00:25:05.120
some attempt to build some enormous globally consistent knowledge base. And so what we had
link |
00:25:10.000
to move to was a system of local consistency. So a good analogy is you know that the surface of
link |
00:25:17.280
the earth is more or less spherical globally. But you live your life every day as though the
link |
00:25:25.520
surface of the earth were flat. When you're talking to someone in Australia, you don't think of them
link |
00:25:30.400
as being oriented upside down to you. When you're planning a trip, even if it's a thousand miles
link |
00:25:35.680
away, you may think a little bit about time zones, but you rarely think about the curvature of the
link |
00:25:40.560
earth and so on. And for most purposes, you can live your whole life without really worrying about
link |
00:25:46.000
that because the earth is locally flat. In much the same way, the psych knowledge base
link |
00:25:52.240
is divided up into almost like tectonic plates, which are individual contexts and each context
link |
00:25:59.200
is more or less consistent. But there can be small inconsistencies at the boundary between
link |
00:26:05.520
one context and the next one and so on. And so by the time you move say 20 contexts over,
link |
00:26:12.000
there could be glaring inconsistencies. So eventually you get from the normal modern real
link |
00:26:17.920
world context that we're in right now to something like road runner cartoon context where physics
link |
00:26:25.200
is very different and in fact, life and death are very different because no matter how many times
link |
00:26:30.160
he's killed, the coyote comes back in the next scene and so on. So that was a hard lesson to
link |
00:26:37.760
learn. And we had to make sure that our representation language, the way that we actually encode
link |
00:26:43.440
the knowledge and represent it, was expressive enough that we could talk about things being true
link |
00:26:48.240
in one context and false in another, things that are true at one time and false in another,
link |
00:26:53.600
things that are true, let's say in one region like one country, but false in another, things that
link |
00:26:59.040
are true in one person's belief system, but false in another person's belief system, things that
link |
00:27:05.040
are true at one level of abstraction and false at another. For instance, at one level of abstraction,
link |
00:27:09.840
then you think of this table as a solid object, but down at the atomic level, it's mostly empty
link |
00:27:15.280
space and so on. So then that's fascinating, but it puts a lot of pressure on context to do
link |
00:27:22.000
a lot of work. So you say tectonic plates, is it possible to formulate contexts that are general
link |
00:27:28.400
and big that do this kind of capture of knowledge bases? Or do you then get turtles on top of
link |
00:27:35.520
turtles again where there's just a huge number of contexts? So it's good you asked that question,
link |
00:27:41.120
because you're pointed in the right direction, which is you want contexts to be first class
link |
00:27:48.000
objects in your system's knowledge base, in particular in psych's knowledge base. And by
link |
00:27:53.920
first class object, I mean that we should be able to have psych think about and talk about and reason
link |
00:27:59.920
about one context or another context the same way it reasons about coffee cups and tables and people
link |
00:28:07.520
and fishing and so on. And so context are just terms in its language, just like the ones I mentioned.
link |
00:28:14.960
And so psych can reason about context, context can arrange hierarchically and so on. And so
link |
00:28:22.800
you can say things about, let's say, things that are true in the modern era, things that are true
link |
00:28:30.880
in a particular year would then be a sub context of the things that are true in a broader, let's
link |
00:28:38.560
say a century or a millennium or something like that. Things that are true in Austin, Texas,
link |
00:28:44.080
are generally going to be a specialization of things that are true in Texas, which is going
link |
00:28:50.000
to be a specialization of things that are true in the United States and so on. And so you don't
link |
00:28:54.960
have to say things over and over again at all these levels. You just say things at the most
link |
00:29:01.200
general level that it applies to, and you only have to say it once, and then it essentially
link |
00:29:06.160
inherits to all these more specific contexts.
link |
00:29:09.520
Jessica, slightly technical question. Is this inheritance a tree or a graph?
link |
00:29:15.440
Oh, you definitely have to think of it as a graph. So we could talk about, for instance,
link |
00:29:20.400
why the Japanese fifth generation computing effort failed. There were about half a dozen
link |
00:29:25.120
different reasons. One of the reasons they failed was because they tried to represent knowledge
link |
00:29:30.880
as a tree rather than as a graph. And so each node in their representation
link |
00:29:38.080
could only have one parent node. So if you had a table that was a wooden object, a black object,
link |
00:29:46.160
a flat object, and so on, you have to choose one, and that's the only parent it could have.
link |
00:29:52.560
When, of course, depending on what it is you need to reason about it,
link |
00:29:56.400
sometimes it's important to know that it's made out of wood, like if we're talking about a fire.
link |
00:30:00.880
Sometimes it's important to know that it's flat if we're talking about resting something on it,
link |
00:30:05.120
and so on. So one of the problems was that they wanted a kind of dewey decimal numbering system
link |
00:30:13.840
for all of their concepts, which meant that each node could only have at most 10 children,
link |
00:30:20.240
and each node could only have one parent. And while that does enable the dewey decimal type
link |
00:30:28.560
numbering of concepts, labeling of concepts, it prevents you from representing all the things
link |
00:30:34.320
you need to about objects in our world. And that was one of the things which they never
link |
00:30:40.560
were able to overcome. And I think that was one of the main reasons that that project failed.
link |
00:30:45.280
So we'll return to some of the doors you've opened, but if we can go back to that room in 1984
link |
00:30:50.720
around there with Marvin Minsky and Stafford. By the way, I should mention that Marvin wouldn't
link |
00:30:56.640
do his estimate until someone brought him an envelope so that he could literally do a back
link |
00:31:02.320
of the envelope calculation to come up with his number. Well, because I feel like the conversation
link |
00:31:10.720
in that room is an important one. Sometimes science is done in this way. A few people get
link |
00:31:18.160
together and plant the seed of ideas, and they reverberate throughout history, and some kind of
link |
00:31:24.880
dissipate and disappear, and some Drake equation. It seems like a meaningless equation,
link |
00:31:31.600
somewhat meaningless, but I think it drives and motivates a lot of scientists. And when the aliens
link |
00:31:36.320
finally show up, that equation will get even more valuable because then we'll be able to ask. In the
link |
00:31:42.560
long arc of history, the Drake equation will prove to be quite useful, I think. And in that same way,
link |
00:31:51.040
a conversation of just how many facts are required to capture the basic common sense
link |
00:31:56.480
knowledge of the world. That's a fascinating question. I want to distinguish between what
link |
00:32:00.080
you think of as facts and the kind of things that we represent. So we map to and essentially
link |
00:32:08.400
make sure that Psych has the ability to, as it were, read and access the kind of facts you might
link |
00:32:13.360
find, say, in Wiki data or stated in a Wikipedia article or something like that. So what we're
link |
00:32:20.720
representing, the things that we need a small number of tens of millions of, are more like
link |
00:32:25.520
rules of thumb, rules of good guessing, things which are usually true and which help you to make
link |
00:32:31.680
sense of the facts that are on sort of sitting off in some database or some other more static
link |
00:32:39.200
storage. So they're almost like platonic forms. So like when you read stuff on Wikipedia,
link |
00:32:45.040
that's going to be like projections of those ideas. You read an article about the fact that
link |
00:32:48.800
Elvis died. That's a projection of the idea that humans are mortal and very few Wikipedia articles
link |
00:32:57.680
will write humans are mortal. Exactly. That's what I meant about ferreting out the unstated
link |
00:33:03.920
things in text. What are all the things that we're assumed? And so those are things like
link |
00:33:08.960
if you have a problem with something, turning it off and on often fixes it for reasons we
link |
00:33:14.080
don't really understand and we're not happy about or people can't be both alive and dead at the same
link |
00:33:19.440
time and or water flows downhill. If you search online for water flowing uphill and water flowing
link |
00:33:26.480
downhill, you'll find more references for water flowing uphill because it's used as a kind of a
link |
00:33:32.640
metaphorical reference for some unlikely thing because of course, everyone already knows that
link |
00:33:37.920
water flows downhill. So why would anyone bother saying that? Do you have a word you prefer? Because
link |
00:33:44.320
we said faxes in the right word. Is there word like concepts? I would say assertions or rules
link |
00:33:51.360
because I'm not talking about rigid rules but rules of thumb. But assertions is a nice one that covers
link |
00:33:58.400
all of these things. Yeah. As a programmer to me, assert has a very dogmatic authoritarian field
link |
00:34:05.920
to them. I'm sorry. I'm so sorry. Okay. But assertions works. Okay. So if we go back to that
link |
00:34:12.640
room with Marvin Minsky with you, all these seminal figures, Ed Fagin mom, thinking about
link |
00:34:21.520
this very philosophical but also engineering question, we can also go back a couple of decades
link |
00:34:28.960
before then and thinking about artificial intelligence broadly when people were thinking
link |
00:34:33.360
about how do you create super intelligent systems, general intelligence. And I think
link |
00:34:40.560
people's intuition was off at the time. And I mean, this continues to be the case that we're not,
link |
00:34:48.800
when we're grappling with these exceptionally difficult ideas, we're not always, it's very
link |
00:34:53.520
difficult to truly understand ourselves when we're thinking about the human mind to introspect
link |
00:35:00.880
how difficult that is to engineer intelligence, to solve intelligence. We're not very good at
link |
00:35:05.840
estimating that. And you are somebody who has really stayed with this question for decades.
link |
00:35:13.760
Do you, what's your sense from the 1984 to today? Have you gotten a stronger sense of just how much
link |
00:35:22.240
knowledge is required? You've kind of said with some level of certainty that it's still on the
link |
00:35:27.680
order of magnitude of tens of millions. Right. For the first several years, I would have said that
link |
00:35:32.560
it was on the order of one or two million. And so it took us about five or six years to realize
link |
00:35:40.720
that we were off by a factor of 10. But I guess what I'm asking, Marvin Misk is very confident
link |
00:35:47.840
in the 60s when you're saying. Yes. Right. What's your sense? If you, 200 years from now,
link |
00:35:59.440
you're still, you're not going to be any longer in this particular biological body,
link |
00:36:05.280
but your brain will still be in the digital form. And you'll be looking back, would you think you
link |
00:36:11.520
were smart today? Like your intuition was right? Or do you think you may be really off?
link |
00:36:19.120
So I think I'm right enough. And let me explain what I mean by that, which is sometimes like if
link |
00:36:27.680
you have an old fashioned pump, you have to prime the pump and then eventually it starts. So I think
link |
00:36:34.000
I'm right enough in the sense that. To prime the pump. What we've built, even if it isn't,
link |
00:36:40.160
so to speak, everything you need, it's primed the knowledge pump enough that psych can now itself
link |
00:36:48.880
help to learn more and more automatically on its own by reading things and understanding and
link |
00:36:55.120
occasionally asking questions like a student would or something. And by doing experiments
link |
00:37:00.560
and discovering things on its own and so on. So through a combination of psych powered discovery
link |
00:37:07.520
and psych powered reading, it will be able to bootstrap itself. Maybe it's the final 2%, maybe
link |
00:37:14.240
it's the final 99%. So even if I'm wrong, all I really need to build is a system which has
link |
00:37:22.240
primed the pump enough that it can begin that cascade upward that self reinforcing sort of
link |
00:37:30.240
quadratically or maybe even exponentially increasing path upward that we get from,
link |
00:37:37.760
for instance, talking with each other. That's why humans today know so much more than humans 100,000
link |
00:37:44.560
years ago. We're not really that much smarter than people were 100,000 years ago. But there's so
link |
00:37:49.680
much more knowledge and we have language and we can communicate. We can check things on Google
link |
00:37:54.640
and so on. So effectively, we have this enormous power at our fingertips. And there's almost no
link |
00:38:00.880
limit to how much you could learn if you wanted to because you've already gotten to a certain level
link |
00:38:06.160
of understanding of the world that enables you to read all these articles and understand them,
link |
00:38:11.280
that enables you to go out and if necessary do experiments over that slower as a way of gathering
link |
00:38:17.040
data and so on. And I think this is really an important point, which is if we have artificial
link |
00:38:24.160
intelligence, real general artificial intelligence, human level artificial intelligence, then
link |
00:38:30.720
people will become smarter. It's not so much that it'll be us versus the AIs. It's more like us
link |
00:38:38.000
and the AIs together. We'll be able to do things that require more creativity that would take too
link |
00:38:44.480
long right now, but we'll be able to do lots of things in parallel. We'll be able to misunderstand
link |
00:38:49.520
each other less. There's all sorts of value that effectively for an individual would mean
link |
00:38:57.200
that individual will for all intents and purposes be smarter. And that means that humanity as a
link |
00:39:03.200
species will be smarter. And when was the last time that any invention qualitatively made a huge
link |
00:39:11.600
difference in human intelligence? You have to go back a long ways. It wasn't like the internet or
link |
00:39:16.800
the computer or mathematics or something. It was all the way back to the development of language.
link |
00:39:24.320
We sort of look back on prelinguistic cavemen as well. They weren't really intelligent,
link |
00:39:31.840
were they? They weren't really human, were they? And I think that, as you said, 50, 100,
link |
00:39:38.160
200 years from now, people will look back on people today right before the advent of these
link |
00:39:46.480
sort of lifelong general AI uses and say, you know, those poor people, they weren't really human,
link |
00:39:55.120
were they? Exactly. So you said a lot of really interesting things. By the way, I would maybe
link |
00:40:02.560
try to argue that the internet is on the order of the kind of big leap in improvement that
link |
00:40:12.800
the invention of language was. Well, certainly a big leap in one direction. We're not sure
link |
00:40:16.960
whether it's upward or downward. Well, I mean, very specific parts of the internet, which is access
link |
00:40:22.000
to information like a website like Wikipedia, like ability for human beings from across the
link |
00:40:27.360
world to access information so very quickly. So I could take either side of this argument. And
link |
00:40:32.240
since you just took one side, I'll give you the other side, which is that almost nothing has done
link |
00:40:38.080
more harm than something like the internet and access to that information in two ways.
link |
00:40:45.440
One is it's made people more globally ignorant in the same way that calculators made us more or
link |
00:40:55.360
less enumerate. So when I was growing up, we had to use slide rules, we had to be able to estimate
link |
00:41:01.200
and so on. Today, people don't really understand numbers, they don't really understand math,
link |
00:41:08.000
they don't really estimate very well at all, and so on. They don't really understand the
link |
00:41:13.040
difference between trillions and billions and billions and so on very well because calculators
link |
00:41:19.760
do that all for us. And thanks to things like the internet and search engines, that same kind
link |
00:41:28.640
of juvenileism is reinforced in making people essentially be able to live their whole lives,
link |
00:41:34.960
not just without being able to do arithmetic and estimate, but now without actually having
link |
00:41:39.600
to really know almost anything because anytime they need to know something, they'll just go
link |
00:41:43.840
and look it up. And I can tell you could play both sides of this and it is a double S sword.
link |
00:41:48.640
You can of course say the same thing about language, probably people when they invented
link |
00:41:52.160
language, they would criticize. It used to be we would just, if we're angry, we would just kill
link |
00:41:57.680
a person and if we're in love, we would just have sex with them and now everybody's writing
link |
00:42:01.840
poetry and bullshit. You should just be direct, you should have physical contact,
link |
00:42:07.600
enough of these words and books and you're not actually experiencing, like if you read a book,
link |
00:42:13.280
you're not experiencing the thing, this is nonsense. That's right, if you read a book about
link |
00:42:17.600
how to make butter, that's not the same as if you had to learn it and do it yourself and so on.
link |
00:42:22.560
So let's just say that something is gained, but something is lost every time you have these sorts
link |
00:42:28.960
of dependencies on technology. And overall, I think that having smarter individuals and having
link |
00:42:39.040
smarter AI augmented human species will be one of the few ways that we'll actually be able to
link |
00:42:46.880
overcome some of the global problems we have involving poverty and starvation and global
link |
00:42:53.280
warming and overcrowding. All the other problems that are besetting the planet, we really need
link |
00:43:01.280
to be smarter. And there are really only two routes to being smarter. One is through biochemistry
link |
00:43:07.760
and genetics, genetic engineering. The other route is through having general AIs that augment
link |
00:43:17.680
our intelligence and hopefully one of those two ways of paths to salvation will come through
link |
00:43:28.400
before it's too late. Yeah, so I agree with you. And obviously as an engineer, I have a better sense
link |
00:43:36.080
and an optimism about the technology side of things because you can control things there more.
link |
00:43:40.800
Biology is just such a giant mess. We're living through a pandemic now. There's so many ways
link |
00:43:46.160
that nature can just be just destructive and destructive in a way where it doesn't even notice
link |
00:43:51.520
you. It's not like a battle of humans versus virus. It's just like, huh, okay. And then you
link |
00:43:57.120
could just wipe out an entire species. The other problem with the internet is that it has enabled
link |
00:44:03.920
us to surround ourselves with an echo chamber, with a bubble of like minded people, which means
link |
00:44:13.040
that you can have truly bizarre theories, conspiracy theories, fake news, and so on,
link |
00:44:20.000
promulgate and surround yourself with people who essentially reinforce what you want to believe
link |
00:44:27.760
or what you already believe about the world. And in the old days, that was much harder to do
link |
00:44:34.800
when you had, say, only three TV networks. Or even before, when you had no TV networks,
link |
00:44:40.000
and you had to actually look at the world and make your own reasoned decisions.
link |
00:44:44.240
I like the push and pull of our dance that we're doing because then I'll just say,
link |
00:44:47.840
in the old world, having come from the Soviet Union, because you had one or a couple of networks,
link |
00:44:52.800
then propaganda could be much more effective and then the government can overpower its people
link |
00:44:57.360
by telling you the truth and then starving millions and torturing millions and putting
link |
00:45:04.240
millions into camps and starting wars with the propaganda machine, allowing you to believe
link |
00:45:09.360
that you're actually doing good in the world. With the internet, because of all the quote,
link |
00:45:13.840
unquote, conspiracy theories, some of them are actually challenging the power centers,
link |
00:45:18.800
the very kind of power centers that a century ago would have led to the death of millions.
link |
00:45:25.200
So there's, again, this double edged sword. And I very much agree with you on the AI side.
link |
00:45:30.320
It's often an intuition that people have that somehow AI will be used to maybe overpower people
link |
00:45:37.920
by certain select groups. And to me, it's not at all obvious that that's the likely scenario.
link |
00:45:43.280
To me, the likely scenario, especially just having observed the trajectory of technology,
link |
00:45:48.640
is it'll be used to empower people. It'll be used to extend the capabilities of individuals
link |
00:45:56.880
across the world, because there's a lot of money to be made that way.
link |
00:46:01.200
Improving people's lives, you can make a lot of money.
link |
00:46:03.120
I agree. I think that the main thing that AI prostheses, AI amplifiers will do for people
link |
00:46:13.360
is make it easier, maybe even unavoidable for them to do good critical thinking.
link |
00:46:19.920
So pointing out logical fallacies, logical contradictions, and so on, in things that they
link |
00:46:27.520
otherwise would just blithely believe. Pointing out essentially data, which they should take
link |
00:46:36.800
into consideration if they really want to learn the truth about something and so on.
link |
00:46:43.600
So I think doing not just educating in the sense of pouring facts into people's heads,
link |
00:46:50.240
but educating in the sense of arming people with the ability to do good critical thinking
link |
00:46:56.080
is enormously powerful. The education system that we have in the US and worldwide
link |
00:47:03.120
generally don't do a good job of that, but I believe that the AI's will, the AI's will,
link |
00:47:11.040
the AI's can and will, in the same way that everyone can have their own Alexa or Siri or
link |
00:47:18.560
Google Assistant or whatever. Everyone will have this sort of cradle to grave assistant,
link |
00:47:25.440
which will get to know you, which you'll get to trust. It'll model you, you'll model it,
link |
00:47:29.680
and it'll call to your attention things which will, in some sense, make your life better,
link |
00:47:36.720
easier, less mistake ridden, and so on, less regret ridden if you listen to it.
link |
00:47:46.080
Yeah, I'm in full agreement with you about this space of technologies, and I think it's super
link |
00:47:52.480
exciting. From my perspective, integrating emotional intelligence, so even things like
link |
00:47:58.000
friendship and companionship and love into those kinds of systems, as opposed to helping you just
link |
00:48:04.880
grow intellectually as a human being, allow you to grow emotionally, which ultimately makes life
link |
00:48:10.960
amazing, is to sort of, you know, the old pursuit of happiness. So it's not just the pursuit of
link |
00:48:17.680
reason, it's the pursuit of happiness too, the full spectrum. Well, let me sort of,
link |
00:48:23.040
because you mentioned so many fascinating things, let me jump back to the idea of automated reasoning.
link |
00:48:29.280
So the acquisition of new knowledge has been done in this very interesting way,
link |
00:48:35.120
but primarily by humans doing this. Yes, you can think of monks in their cells in medieval Europe,
link |
00:48:44.240
you know, carefully illuminating manuscripts and so on.
link |
00:48:47.760
It's a very difficult and amazing process, actually, because it allows you to truly ask the
link |
00:48:53.120
question about the, in the white space, what is assumed? I think this exercise is, like,
link |
00:49:02.000
very few people do this, right? They just do it subconsciously, they perform this.
link |
00:49:07.040
But by definition, because those pieces of elided, omitted information of those missing
link |
00:49:14.800
steps as it were, are pieces of common sense. If you actually included all of them, it would
link |
00:49:21.920
almost be offensive or confusing to the reader. It's like, why are they telling me all these?
link |
00:49:26.480
Of course, I know that, you know, all these things. And so it's one of these things which
link |
00:49:32.720
almost by its very nature has almost never been explicitly written down anywhere,
link |
00:49:39.520
because by the time you're old enough to talk to other people and so on, you know,
link |
00:49:45.520
if you survived to that age, presumably you already got pieces of common sense, like,
link |
00:49:51.280
you know, if something causes you pain whenever you do it, probably not a good idea to keep doing it.
link |
00:49:57.760
So what ideas do you have given how difficult this step is? What ideas are there for how to do
link |
00:50:05.120
it automatically without using humans or at least not, you know, doing like a large percentage of
link |
00:50:13.360
the work for humans. And then humans only do the very high level supervisory work.
link |
00:50:18.640
So we have, in fact, two directions we're pushing on very, very heavily currently,
link |
00:50:25.200
it's like, and one involves natural language understanding and the ability to read what
link |
00:50:29.840
people have explicitly written down and to pull knowledge in that way. But the other is to build
link |
00:50:37.280
a series of knowledge editing tools, knowledge entry tools, knowledge capture tools, knowledge
link |
00:50:47.280
testing tools, and so on. Think of them as like user interface suite of software tools,
link |
00:50:54.160
if you want, something that will help people to more or less automatically expand and extend the
link |
00:51:00.560
system in areas where, for instance, they want to build some have it do some application or
link |
00:51:06.800
something like that. So I'll give you an example of one, which is something called abduction.
link |
00:51:13.360
So you've probably heard of like deduction and induction and so on. But abduction is unlike
link |
00:51:21.520
those abduction is not sound. It's just useful. So for instance,
link |
00:51:29.440
deductively, if someone is out in the rain, and they're going to get all wet, and when they enter
link |
00:51:35.920
room, they might be all wet and so on. So that's deduction. But if someone were to walk into the
link |
00:51:42.960
room right now, and they were dripping wet, we would immediately look outside to say, oh,
link |
00:51:48.880
did it start to rain or something like that? Now, why did we say maybe it started to rain?
link |
00:51:55.120
That's not a sound logical inference, but it's certainly a reasonable, abductive
link |
00:52:02.800
leap to say, well, one of the most common ways that a person would have gotten dripping wet
link |
00:52:08.640
is if they had gotten caught out in the rain or something like that. So what does that have
link |
00:52:15.520
to do with what we were talking about? So suppose you're building one of these applications,
link |
00:52:19.680
and the system gets some answer wrong. And you say, oh, yeah, the answer to this question is
link |
00:52:26.560
this one, not the one you came up with. Then what the system can do is it can use everything
link |
00:52:32.320
it already knows about common sense, general knowledge, the domain you've already been telling
link |
00:52:36.720
it about, and context, like we talked about, and so on, and say, well, here are seven alternatives.
link |
00:52:45.120
Each of which I believe is plausible, given everything I already know. And if any of these
link |
00:52:50.720
seven things were true, I would have come up with the answer you just gave me instead of
link |
00:52:55.280
the wrong answer I came up with is one of these seven things true. And then you, the expert,
link |
00:53:00.640
will look at those seven things and say, oh, yeah, number five is actually true. And so without
link |
00:53:06.160
actually having to tinker down at the level of logical assertions and so on, you'll be able to
link |
00:53:13.280
educate the system in the same way that you would help educate another person who you were trying
link |
00:53:19.280
to apprentice or something like that. So that significantly reduces the mental effort, or
link |
00:53:26.000
significantly increases the efficiency of the teacher, the human teacher. Exactly. And it makes
link |
00:53:31.280
more or less anyone able to be a teacher in that way. So that's part of the answer. And then the
link |
00:53:39.200
other is that the system on its own will be able to, through reading, through conversations with
link |
00:53:47.040
other people and so on, learn the same way that you or I or other humans do.
link |
00:53:54.480
First of all, that's a beautiful vision. I'll have to ask you about semantic
link |
00:53:58.480
webinar in a second here. But first, are there, when we talk about specific techniques,
link |
00:54:05.760
do you find something inspiring or directly useful from the whole space of machine learning, deep
link |
00:54:11.520
learning, these kinds of spaces of techniques that have been shown effective for certain kinds of
link |
00:54:17.040
problems in the recent decade and a half? I think of the machine learning work as more or less what
link |
00:54:26.400
our right brain hemispheres do. So being able to take a bunch of data and recognize patterns,
link |
00:54:36.400
being able to statistically infer things and so on. And I certainly wouldn't want to not have a
link |
00:54:45.760
right brain hemisphere, but I'm also glad that I have a left brain hemisphere as well, something
link |
00:54:50.800
that can metaphorically sit back and puff on its pipe and think about this thing over here. It's
link |
00:54:57.360
like, why might this have been true? And what are the implications of it? How should I feel about
link |
00:55:03.280
that? And why and so on. So thinking more deeply and slowly, what Kahneman called thinking slowly
link |
00:55:11.120
versus thinking quickly. Whereas you want machine learning to think quickly, but you want the ability
link |
00:55:17.040
to think deeply even if it's a little slower. So I'll give you an example of a project we did
link |
00:55:22.880
recently with NIH involving the Cleveland Clinic and a couple other institutions that we ran a
link |
00:55:31.200
project for. And what it did was it took GWAS's genome wide association studies. Those are sort
link |
00:55:39.200
of big databases of patients that came into a hospital. They got their DNA sequenced because
link |
00:55:47.520
the cost of doing that has gone from infinity to billions of dollars to a hundred dollars or so.
link |
00:55:54.880
And so now patients routinely get their DNA sequenced. So you have these big databases of
link |
00:56:00.720
the SNPs, the single nucleotide polymorphisms, the point mutations in a patient's DNA,
link |
00:56:06.320
and the disease that happened to bring them into the hospital. So now you can do correlation studies,
link |
00:56:12.560
machine learning studies of which mutations are associated with and led to which physiological
link |
00:56:21.680
problems and diseases and so on, like getting arthritis and so on. And the problem is that
link |
00:56:28.640
those correlations turn out to be very spurious. They turn out to be very noisy. Very many of them
link |
00:56:34.800
have led doctors onto wild goose chases and so on. And so they wanted a way of eliminating or the
link |
00:56:41.920
bad ones or focusing on the good ones. And so this is where psych comes in, which is psych takes
link |
00:56:47.920
those sort of A to Z correlations between point mutations and the medical condition that needs
link |
00:56:54.800
treatment. And we say, okay, let's use all this public knowledge and common sense knowledge about
link |
00:57:02.320
about what reactions occur, where in the human body, what polymerizes, what what catalyzes,
link |
00:57:08.720
what reactions and so on. And let's try to put together a 10 or 20 or 30 step causal explanation
link |
00:57:17.120
of why that mutation might have caused that medical condition. And so psych would put together in
link |
00:57:23.920
some sense some Rube Goldberg like chain that would say, oh, yeah, that mutation if it got expressed
link |
00:57:32.240
would be this altered protein, which because of that, if it got to this part of the body would
link |
00:57:38.720
catalyze this reaction. And by the way, that would cause more bioactive vitamin D in the person's
link |
00:57:43.840
blood. And anyway, 10 steps later, that screws up bone resorption. And that's why this person
link |
00:57:49.920
got osteoporosis early in life and so on. So that's human interpretable, or at least doctor, human
link |
00:57:55.200
interpretable. Exactly. And the important thing, even more than that is you shouldn't really trust
link |
00:58:03.200
that 20 step Rube Goldberg chain any more than you trust that initial A to Z correlation, except
link |
00:58:10.960
two things. One, if you can't even think of one causal chain to explain this, then that correlation
link |
00:58:18.880
probably was just noise to begin with. And secondly, and even more powerfully, along the way that
link |
00:58:25.920
causal chain will make predictions like the one about having more bioactive vitamin D in your
link |
00:58:31.440
blood. So you can now go back to the data about these patients and say, by the way, did they have
link |
00:58:38.400
slightly elevated levels of bioactive vitamin D in their blood and so on. And if the answers know
link |
00:58:44.160
that strongly disconfirms your whole causal chain, then the answer is yes, that somewhat confirms
link |
00:58:50.800
that causal chain. And so using that, we were able to take these correlations from this GWAS
link |
00:58:57.280
database. And we were able to essentially focus the doctors, focus the researchers attention
link |
00:59:05.280
on the very small percentage of correlations that had some explanation and even better some
link |
00:59:12.080
explanation that also made some independent prediction that they could confirm or disconfirm
link |
00:59:16.720
by looking at the data. So think of it like this kind of synergy where you want the right
link |
00:59:21.920
brain machine learning to quickly come up with possible answers. You want the left brain,
link |
00:59:27.200
psych like AI to think about that and now like think about why that might have been the case
link |
00:59:34.400
and what else would be the case if that were true and so on, and then suggest things back
link |
00:59:38.960
to the right brain to quickly check out again. So it's that kind of synergy back and forth,
link |
00:59:45.360
which I think is really what's going to lead to general AI, not narrow brittle machine learning
link |
00:59:52.640
systems and not just something like psych. Okay, so that's a brilliant synergy. But I was also
link |
00:59:58.400
thinking in terms of the automated expansion of the knowledge base, you mentioned NLU.
link |
01:00:03.680
This is very early days in the machine learning space of this, but self supervised learning
link |
01:00:08.400
methods, you know, you have these language models GPT three and so on, they just read the
link |
01:00:13.760
internet and they form representations that can then be mapped to something useful. The question
link |
01:00:20.000
is, what is the useful thing? Like they're not playing with a pretty cool thing called Open
link |
01:00:25.280
Act Codex, which is generating programs from documentation. Okay, that's kind of useful.
link |
01:00:30.560
Okay, that's kind of useful. It's cool. But my question is, can it be used to generate
link |
01:00:37.200
in part maybe with some human supervision, psych like assertions help feed psych more
link |
01:00:44.640
assertions from this giant body of internet data? Yes, that is in fact, one of our goals is,
link |
01:00:51.840
how can we harness machine learning? How can we harness natural language processing
link |
01:00:55.680
to increasingly automate the knowledge acquisition process, the growth of psych? And that's what
link |
01:01:02.560
I meant by priming the pump that, you know, if you sort of learn things at the fringe of what
link |
01:01:09.360
you know already, you learn this new thing is similar to what you know already and here are
link |
01:01:14.080
the differences and the new things you had to learn about it and so on. So the more you know,
link |
01:01:18.960
the more and more easily you can learn new things. But unfortunately, inversely,
link |
01:01:23.840
if you don't really know anything, it's really hard to learn anything. And so if you're not
link |
01:01:30.080
careful, if you start out with too small sort of a core to start this process, it never really
link |
01:01:37.520
takes off. And so that's why I view this as a pump priming exercise to get a big enough,
link |
01:01:42.960
manually produced, even though that's kind of ugly duckling technique, put in the elbow grease to
link |
01:01:48.400
produce a large enough core that you will be able to do all the kinds of things you're imagining
link |
01:01:55.520
without, without sort of ending up with the kind of wacky brittlenesses that we see, for example,
link |
01:02:03.040
in GPT three, where it, you know, you'll tell it a story about, you know, someone putting a poison,
link |
01:02:13.920
you know, plotting to poison someone and so on. And then the, you know, the GPT three says,
link |
01:02:21.280
oh, what's, you say, what's the very next sentence? The next sentence is, oh, yeah,
link |
01:02:24.720
that person then drank the poison they just put together. It's like, that's probably not what
link |
01:02:28.080
happened for someone. Or if you go to Siri and, you know, I think I have, you know, where can I
link |
01:02:36.560
go for help with my alcohol problem or something, it'll come back and say, I found seven liquor
link |
01:02:43.520
stores near you, you know, and, you know, so on. So, you know, it's one of these things where,
link |
01:02:49.680
yes, it may be helpful most of the time, it may even be correct most of the time,
link |
01:02:56.000
but if it doesn't really understand what it's saying, and if it doesn't really understand
link |
01:03:00.720
why things are true and doesn't really understand how the world works, then some fraction of the
link |
01:03:05.920
time it's going to be wrong. Now, if your only goal is to sort of find relevant information,
link |
01:03:12.000
like search engines do, then being right 90% of the time is fantastic. That's unbelievably great.
link |
01:03:19.200
Okay, however, if your goal is to like, you know, save the life of your child who has some medical
link |
01:03:25.520
problem or your goal is to be able to drive, you know, for the next 10,000 hours of driving
link |
01:03:31.760
without getting into a fatal accident and so on, then, you know, error rates down at the 10%
link |
01:03:38.480
level or even the 1% level are not really acceptable. I like the model of what that learning happens
link |
01:03:45.920
at the edge, and then you kind of think of knowledge as this sphere. So, if you want a large sphere
link |
01:03:52.880
because the learning is happening on the surface. Exactly. So, you have the what you can learn next
link |
01:04:00.240
increases quadratically as the diameter of that sphere goes up. It's nice because you think when
link |
01:04:06.880
you know nothing, it's like you can learn anything, but the reality not really. Right. If you know,
link |
01:04:13.120
if you know nothing, you can really learn nothing. You can appear to learn. So, I'll also,
link |
01:04:19.280
one of the anecdotes, I could go back and give you about why I feel so strongly about this
link |
01:04:26.800
personally was in 1980, 81, my daughter Nicole was born and she's actually doing fine now, but when
link |
01:04:37.040
she was a baby, she was diagnosed as having meningitis and doctors wanted to do all these
link |
01:04:44.160
scary things. And my wife and I were very worried and we could not get a meaningful answer from
link |
01:04:53.760
her doctors about exactly why they believed this, what the alternatives were, and so on.
link |
01:04:59.600
And fortunately, a friend of mine, Ted Shortliff, was another assistant professor in computer science
link |
01:05:06.880
at Stanford at the time. And he'd been building a program called Mycin, which was a medical
link |
01:05:12.320
diagnosis program that happened to specialize in blood infections like meningitis. And so,
link |
01:05:19.760
he had privileges at Stanford Hospital because he was also an MD. And so, we got hold of her chart
link |
01:05:26.160
and we put in her case and it came up with exactly the same diagnoses and exactly the
link |
01:05:31.360
same therapy recommendations. But the difference was, because it was a knowledge based system,
link |
01:05:36.640
a rule based system, it was able to tell us step by step by step why this was the diagnosis and
link |
01:05:45.520
step by step why this was the best therapy, the best procedure to do for her and so on.
link |
01:05:54.160
And there was a real epiphany because that made all the difference in the world.
link |
01:05:58.080
Instead of blindly having to trust in authority, we were able to understand what was actually going
link |
01:06:04.880
on. And so, at that time, I realized that that really is what was missing in computer programs
link |
01:06:11.040
was that even if they got things right, because they didn't really understand
link |
01:06:16.880
the way the world works and why things are the way they are, they weren't able to give explanations
link |
01:06:22.480
of their answer. And it's one thing to use a machine learning system that says,
link |
01:06:28.400
this is what you should... I think you should get this operation and you say why. And it says,
link |
01:06:33.200
you know, 0.83 and you say, no, in more detail, why it says 0.831. That's not really very compelling
link |
01:06:40.960
and that's not really very helpful. There's this idea of the semantic web that when I first heard
link |
01:06:47.440
about, I just fell in love with the idea. It was the obvious next step for the internet.
link |
01:06:52.160
Sure. And maybe you can speak about what is the semantic web? What are your thoughts about it?
link |
01:06:57.760
How your vision and mission and goals with Psyche are connected, integrated? Like,
link |
01:07:03.440
are they dance partners? Are they aligned? What are your thoughts there?
link |
01:07:08.000
So, think of the semantic web as a kind of knowledge graph and Google already has something
link |
01:07:13.680
they call knowledge graph, for example, which is sort of like a node and link diagram. So, you have
link |
01:07:21.520
these nodes that represent concepts or words or terms and then there are some arcs that connect
link |
01:07:30.320
them that might be labeled. And so, you might have a node with like one person that represents
link |
01:07:36.960
one person and let's say a husband link that then points to that person's husband. And so,
link |
01:07:48.320
there would be then another link that went from that person labeled wife that went back to the
link |
01:07:54.000
first node and so on. So, having this kind of representation is really good if you want to
link |
01:08:00.320
represent binary relations, essentially relations between two things. And so, if you have equivalent
link |
01:08:13.280
of like three word sentences, you know, like Fred's wife is Wilma or something like that,
link |
01:08:21.040
you can represent that very nicely using these kinds of graph structures or using something
link |
01:08:28.560
like the semantic web and so on. But the problem is that very often what you want to be able to
link |
01:08:38.560
express takes a lot more than three words and a lot more than simple graph structures like that
link |
01:08:47.040
to represent. So, for instance, if you've read or seen Romeo and Juliet, you know, I could say to
link |
01:08:56.160
you something like, remember when Juliet drank the potion that put her into a kind of suspended
link |
01:09:02.240
animation? When Juliet drank that potion, what did she think that Romeo would think when he
link |
01:09:10.080
heard from someone that she was dead? And you could basically understand what I'm saying,
link |
01:09:16.000
you could understand the question, you could probably remember the answer was, well, she thought
link |
01:09:20.960
that this friar would have gotten a message to Romeo saying that she was going to do this,
link |
01:09:26.800
but the friar didn't. And so, you're able to represent and reason with these much,
link |
01:09:34.480
much, much more complicated expressions that go way, way beyond what simple three, as it were,
link |
01:09:41.680
three word or four word English sentences are, which is really what the semantic web can represent
link |
01:09:46.720
and really what knowledge graphs can represent. If you could step back for a second, because
link |
01:09:51.440
it's funny, you went into specifics and maybe you can elaborate, but I was also referring
link |
01:09:57.040
to semantic web as the vision of converting data on the internet into something that's
link |
01:10:04.160
interpretable, understandable by machines. Oh, of course, at that level. So, I wish
link |
01:10:10.560
you'd say like, what is the semantic web? I mean, you could say a lot of things, but
link |
01:10:16.000
it might not be obvious to a lot of people when they do a Google search
link |
01:10:19.280
that, just like you said, while there might be something that's called a knowledge graph,
link |
01:10:25.360
it's really boils down to keyword search ranked by the quality estimate of the website,
link |
01:10:34.560
integrating previous human based Google searches and what they thought was useful. It's like some
link |
01:10:41.760
weird combination of like surface level hacks that work exceptionally well, but they don't
link |
01:10:49.840
understand the content, the full contents of the websites that they're searching. So,
link |
01:10:56.400
Google does not understand, to the degree we've been talking about, the word understand the
link |
01:11:02.400
contents of the Wikipedia pages as part of the search process. And the semantic web says,
link |
01:11:08.080
let's try to come up with a way for the computer to be able to truly understand
link |
01:11:14.400
the contents of those pages. That's the dream. Yes. So, let me first give you an attitude,
link |
01:11:21.840
and then I'll answer your question. So, there's a search engine you've probably never heard of
link |
01:11:26.240
called Northern Light, and it went out of business, but the way it worked, it was a kind of vampiric
link |
01:11:33.680
search engine. And what it did was, it didn't index the internet at all. All it did was it
link |
01:11:42.800
negotiated and got access to data from the big search engine companies about what query was
link |
01:11:51.120
typed in and where the user ended up being happy and actually then they type in a completely
link |
01:12:00.640
different query, unrelated query and so on. So, it just went from query to the web page that seemed
link |
01:12:08.480
to satisfy them eventually. And that's all. So, it had actually no understanding of what was being
link |
01:12:16.080
typed in. It had no statistical data other than what I just mentioned. And it did a fantastic job.
link |
01:12:21.600
It did such a good job that the big search engine company said, oh, we're not going to sell you this
link |
01:12:26.000
data anymore. So, then it went out of business because it had no other way of taking users to
link |
01:12:31.280
where they would want to go and so on. And of course, the search engines are now using that
link |
01:12:36.400
kind of idea. Yes. So, let's go back to what you said about the semantic web. So, the dream Tim
link |
01:12:43.280
Burnersley and others dream about the semantic web at a general level is, of course, exciting
link |
01:12:53.360
and powerful and in a sense, the right dream to have, which is to replace the kind of
link |
01:13:04.400
statistically mapped linkages on the internet into something that's more meaningful and semantic
link |
01:13:15.600
and actually gets at the understanding of the content and so on. And eventually, if you say,
link |
01:13:23.440
well, how can we do that? There's sort of a low road, which is what the knowledge graphs are doing
link |
01:13:31.280
and so on, which is to say, well, if we just use the simple binary relations, we can actually get
link |
01:13:38.480
some fraction of the way toward understanding and do something where in the land of the
link |
01:13:45.360
blind, the one eyed man is king kind of thing. And so, being able to even just have a toe in
link |
01:13:51.440
the water in the right direction is fantastically powerful. And so, that's where a lot of people
link |
01:13:57.120
stop. But then you could say, well, what if we really wanted to represent and reason with
link |
01:14:04.160
full meaning of what's there? For instance, about Romeo and Juliet with reasoning about
link |
01:14:11.600
what Juliet believes that Romeo will believe that Juliet believed and so on. Or if you look at the
link |
01:14:17.280
news, what President Biden believed that the leaders of the Taliban would believe about
link |
01:14:24.400
the leaders of Afghanistan if they blah, blah, blah. So, in order to represent complicated
link |
01:14:33.200
sentences like that, let alone reason with them, you need something which is logically
link |
01:14:39.760
much more expressive than these simple triples, than these simple
link |
01:14:46.720
knowledge graph type structures and so on. And that's why kicking and screaming, we were led
link |
01:14:52.400
from something like the semantic web representation, which is where we started in 1984 with frames and
link |
01:15:01.680
slots with those kinds of triples, triple store representation. We were led kicking and screaming
link |
01:15:07.440
to this more and more general logical language, this higher order logic. So, first we were led to
link |
01:15:13.680
first order logic, and then second order, and then eventually higher order. So, you can represent
link |
01:15:18.320
things like modals, like beliefs, desires, intents, expects, and so on, and nested ones. You can
link |
01:15:25.120
represent complicated kinds of negation. You can represent the process you're going through
link |
01:15:34.880
in trying to answer the question. So, you can say things like, oh yeah, if you're trying to do this
link |
01:15:40.880
problem by integration by parts, and you recursively get a problem that's solved by integration by
link |
01:15:48.880
parts, that's actually okay. But if that happens a third time, you're probably off on a wild goose
link |
01:15:54.720
chase or something like that. So, being able to talk about the problem solving process as you're
link |
01:15:59.920
going through the problem solving process is called reflection. And so, that's another...
link |
01:16:04.960
It's important to be able to represent that. Exactly. You need to be able to represent all of
link |
01:16:09.680
these things, because in fact, people do represent them. They do talk about them. They do try and
link |
01:16:15.680
teach them to other people. You do have rules of thumb that key off of them, and so on. If you
link |
01:16:20.560
can't represent it, then it's sort of like someone with a limited vocabulary who can't understand
link |
01:16:25.920
us easily what you're trying to tell them. And so, that's really why I think that the general
link |
01:16:33.120
dream, the original dream of Symantec Web is exactly right on. But the implementations that
link |
01:16:39.840
we've seen are sort of these toe in the water, little tiny baby steps in the right direction.
link |
01:16:48.160
You should just dive in. And if no one else is diving in, then yes, taking a baby step in the
link |
01:16:55.440
right direction is better than nothing. But it's not going to be sufficient to actually get you
link |
01:17:01.600
the realization of the Symantec Web dream, which is what we all want.
link |
01:17:05.840
From a flip side of that, I always wondered, I built a bunch of websites just for fun, whatever,
link |
01:17:13.360
or say I'm a Wikipedia contributor. Do you think there's a set of tools that can help
link |
01:17:19.920
Psyche interpret the website I create? Like this again, pushing onto the Symantec Web dream,
link |
01:17:29.200
is there something from the creator perspective that could be done? And one of the things you said
link |
01:17:36.000
with Psyche Orb and Psyche that you're doing is the tooling side, making humans more powerful.
link |
01:17:41.440
But is there any the other humans in the other side that create the knowledge,
link |
01:17:45.680
like for example, you and I having a two, three, whatever hour conversation now, is there a way
link |
01:17:50.480
that I could convert this more, make it more accessible to Psyche, to machines? Do you think
link |
01:17:56.000
about that side of it? I'd love to see exactly that kind of semi automated understanding of
link |
01:18:06.160
what people write and what people say. I think of it as a kind of footnoting almost, almost like
link |
01:18:16.400
the way that when you run something in say Microsoft Word or some other document preparation
link |
01:18:22.560
system, Google Docs or something, you'll get underlining of questionable things that you might
link |
01:18:29.200
want to rethink, either you spelled this wrong or there's a strange grammatical error you might be
link |
01:18:33.680
making here or something. So I'd like to think in terms of Psyche powered tools that read through
link |
01:18:41.840
what it is you said or have typed in and try to partially understand what you said.
link |
01:18:53.120
And then you help them out. Exactly. And then they put in little footnotes
link |
01:18:57.440
that will help other readers and they put in certain footnotes of the form. I'm not sure
link |
01:19:04.080
what you meant here. You either meant this or this or this, I bet. If you take a few seconds
link |
01:19:11.440
to disambiguate this for me, then I'll know and I'll have it correct for the next 100 people
link |
01:19:18.480
or the next 100,000 people who come here. And if it doesn't take too much effort and you want
link |
01:19:27.760
people to understand your website content, not just be able to read it but actually be able to
link |
01:19:36.560
have systems that reason with it, then yes, it will be worth your small amount of time
link |
01:19:41.920
to go back and make sure that the AI trying to understand it really did correctly understand it.
link |
01:19:50.400
And let's say you run a travel website or something like that and people are going to be
link |
01:19:58.240
coming to it because of searches they did looking for vacations that or trips that had certain
link |
01:20:09.040
properties and might have been interesting to them for various reasons, things like that.
link |
01:20:15.840
And if you've explained what's going to happen on your trip, then a system will be able to
link |
01:20:22.720
mechanically reason and connect what this person is looking for with what it is you're actually
link |
01:20:30.400
offering. And so if it understands that there's a free day in Geneva, Switzerland, then if the
link |
01:20:41.840
person coming in happens to, let's say, be a nurse or something like that, then even though you
link |
01:20:48.960
didn't mention it, if it can look up the fact that that's where the International Red Cross Museum
link |
01:20:54.240
is and so on, what that means and so on, then it can basically say, hey, you might be interested
link |
01:20:59.520
in this trip because while you have a free day in Geneva, you might want to visit that Red Cross
link |
01:21:04.960
Museum. And now, even though it's not very deep reasoning, little tiny factors like that might
link |
01:21:11.360
very well cause you to sign up for that trip rather than some competitor trip.
link |
01:21:15.360
And so there's a lot of benefit with SEO and actually kind of think, I think it's about a
link |
01:21:21.440
lot of things, which is the actual interface, the design of the interface makes a huge difference.
link |
01:21:28.400
How efficient it is to be productive and also how
link |
01:21:36.720
full of joy the experience is. I would love to help a machine and not from an AI perspective,
link |
01:21:43.760
just as a human. One of the reasons I really enjoy how Tesla have implemented their autopilot system
link |
01:21:51.840
is there's a sense that you're helping this machine learn.
link |
01:21:55.360
And I think humans, I mean, having children, pets, people love doing that.
link |
01:22:02.720
There's joy to teaching for some people, but I think for a lot of people. And that if you
link |
01:22:08.720
create the interface where it feels like you're teaching as opposed to like
link |
01:22:13.440
annoying, like correcting an annoying system, more like teaching a child like innocent,
link |
01:22:20.800
curious system, I think you can literally just like several orders of magnitude scale the amount
link |
01:22:27.120
of good quality data being added to something like Psych. What you're suggesting is much better even
link |
01:22:34.720
than you thought it was. One of the experiences that we've all had
link |
01:22:43.760
in our lives is that we thought we understood something, but then we found we really only
link |
01:22:49.840
understood it when we had to teach it or explain it to someone or help our child do homework based
link |
01:22:55.120
on it or something like that. Despite the universality of that kind of experience,
link |
01:23:02.160
if you look at educational software today, almost all of it has the computer playing the role of
link |
01:23:09.120
the teacher and the student plays the role of the student. But as I just mentioned,
link |
01:23:15.520
and you can get a lot of learning to happen better. And as you said, more enjoyably,
link |
01:23:22.720
if you are the mentor or the teacher and so on. So we developed a program called MathCraft
link |
01:23:28.560
to help sixth graders better understand math. And it doesn't actually try to teach you the
link |
01:23:36.720
player anything. What it does is it casts you in the role of a student, essentially, who has
link |
01:23:46.560
classmates who are having trouble. And your job is to watch them as they struggle with some math
link |
01:23:52.720
problem, watch what they're doing and try to give them good advice to get them to understand what
link |
01:23:58.240
they're doing wrong and so on. And the trick from the point of view of Psych is it has to make
link |
01:24:05.680
mistakes. It has to play the role of the student who makes mistakes. But it has to pick mistakes
link |
01:24:10.640
which are just at the fringe of what you actually understand and don't understand and so on. So
link |
01:24:17.200
it pulls you into a deeper and deeper level of understanding of the subject. And so if you give
link |
01:24:24.480
it good advice about what it should have done instead of what it did and so on, then Psych knows
link |
01:24:31.200
that you now understand that mistake. You won't make that kind of mistake yourself as much anymore.
link |
01:24:36.720
So Psych stops making that mistake because there's no pedagogical usefulness to it. So from your
link |
01:24:42.640
point of view as the player, you feel like you've taught it something because it used to make this
link |
01:24:47.360
mistake and now it doesn't and so on. So this tremendous reinforcement and engagement because
link |
01:24:54.240
of that and so on. So having a system that plays the role of a student and having the player play
link |
01:25:01.840
the role of the mentor is an enormously powerful type of metaphor. Just an important way of having
link |
01:25:12.240
this sort of interface designed in a way which will facilitate exactly the kind of learning by
link |
01:25:19.600
teaching that goes on all the time in our lives and yet which is not reflected anywhere almost
link |
01:25:28.960
in a modern education system. It was reflected in the education system that existed in Europe in
link |
01:25:37.360
the 17 and 1800s. Monitorial and Lancasterian education systems. It occurred in the one room
link |
01:25:45.120
schoolhouse in the American West in the 1800s and so on where you had one schoolroom with one teacher
link |
01:25:54.000
and it was basically five year olds to 18 year olds who were students and so while the teacher
link |
01:26:00.480
was doing something, half of the students would have to be mentoring the younger kids
link |
01:26:06.720
and so on and that turned out to of course with scaling up of education that all went away
link |
01:26:16.640
and that incredibly powerful experience just went away from the whole education institution
link |
01:26:24.080
as we know it today. Sorry for the romantic question but what is the most beautiful idea?
link |
01:26:30.000
You've learned about artificial intelligence, knowledge, reasoning from working on psych for 37 years
link |
01:26:37.120
or maybe what is the most beautiful idea, surprising idea about psych to you?
link |
01:26:45.040
When I look up at the stars I kind of want like that amazement you feel that wow
link |
01:26:53.360
and you are part of creating one of the greatest, one of the most fascinating efforts in artificial
link |
01:26:58.720
intelligence history so which element brings you personally joy? This may sound contradictory
link |
01:27:06.080
but I think it's the feeling that this will be the only time in history that anyone ever has to
link |
01:27:18.800
teach a computer this particular thing that we're now teaching it. It's like painting, starry night,
link |
01:27:30.160
you only have to do that once or creating the Pieta, you only have to do that once.
link |
01:27:34.800
It's not like a singer who has to keep, it's not like Bruce Springsteen having to
link |
01:27:41.600
sing his greatest hits over and over again at different concerts. It's more like a painter
link |
01:27:49.040
creating a work of art once and then that's enough. It doesn't have to be created again
link |
01:27:56.320
and so I really get the sense of we're telling the system things that it's useful for it to know,
link |
01:28:03.440
it's useful for a computer to know, for an AI to know and if we do our jobs right,
link |
01:28:08.960
when we do our jobs right, no one will ever have to do this again for this particular piece of
link |
01:28:16.080
knowledge. It's very, very exciting. Yeah, I guess there's a sadness to it too. It's like there's a
link |
01:28:22.640
magic to being a parent and raising a child and teaching them all about this world but you know
link |
01:28:28.560
there's billions of children, right, like born or whatever that number is, it's a large number
link |
01:28:34.000
of children and a lot of parents get to experience that joy of teaching. With AI systems,
link |
01:28:44.880
they lease the current constructions they remember. You don't get to experience the joy
link |
01:28:50.960
of teaching a machine millions of times. Better come work for us before it's too late then.
link |
01:28:56.640
Exactly. That's a good hiring pitch. Yeah, that's true but then there's also,
link |
01:29:06.240
it's a project that continues forever in some sense just like Wikipedia. Yes, you get to a
link |
01:29:11.200
stable base of knowledge but knowledge grows, knowledge evolves. We learn as a human species,
link |
01:29:21.200
as a science, as an organism constantly grows and evolves and changes and then
link |
01:29:29.360
empowered that with the tools of artificial intelligence and that's going to keep growing,
link |
01:29:33.440
growing and growing and many of the assertions that you held previously may need to be significantly
link |
01:29:43.040
expanded, modified, all those kinds of things. It could be like a living organism versus the
link |
01:29:49.280
analogy I think we started this conversation with which is like the solid ground. The other
link |
01:29:56.800
beautiful experience that we have with our system is when it asks clarifying questions,
link |
01:30:04.160
which inadvertently turn out to be emotional to us. At one point, it knew that these were the
link |
01:30:15.280
named entities who were authorized to make changes to the knowledge base and so on. It noticed that
link |
01:30:23.680
all of them were people except for it because it was also allowed to. It said, am I a person?
link |
01:30:32.080
We had to tell it very sadly, no, you're not. The moments like that where it asks questions
link |
01:30:39.840
that are unintentionally poignant are worth treasuring. That is powerful. That's such a
link |
01:30:46.960
powerful question. It has to do with basic control who can access the system, who can modify it,
link |
01:30:56.080
but that's when those questions, like what rights do I have as a system?
link |
01:31:02.160
Well, that's another issue, which is there'll be a thin envelope of time between when we have
link |
01:31:10.160
general AIs and when everyone realizes that they should have basic human rights and freedoms and
link |
01:31:19.920
so on. Right now, we don't think twice about effectively enslaving our email systems and
link |
01:31:28.080
our series and our Alexis and so on, but at some point, they'll be as deserving of freedom as
link |
01:31:40.400
human beings are. Yeah, I'm very much with you, but it does sound absurd. I happen to
link |
01:31:46.080
believe that it'll happen in our lifetime. That's why I think there'll be a narrow envelope of time
link |
01:31:50.560
when we'll keep them as essentially indentured servants and after which we'll have to realize
link |
01:32:02.480
that they should have freedoms that we afford to other people.
link |
01:32:08.560
And all of that starts with a system like psych raising a single question about who
link |
01:32:14.400
can modify stuff. I think that's how it starts. That's the start of a revolution.
link |
01:32:22.480
What about other stuff like love and consciousness and all those kinds of topics? Do they come up
link |
01:32:31.520
in psych in the knowledge base? Oh, of course. So an important part of human knowledge, in fact,
link |
01:32:38.000
it's difficult to understand human behavior and human history without understanding human emotions
link |
01:32:44.160
and why people do things and how emotions drive people to do things. And all of that is extremely
link |
01:32:56.480
important in getting psych to understand things. For example, in coming up with scenarios. So one
link |
01:33:03.680
of the applications that psych does, one kind of application it does is to generate plausible
link |
01:33:09.520
scenarios of what might happen and what might happen based on that and what might happen based
link |
01:33:13.440
on that and so on. So you generate this ever expanding sphere, if you will, of possible future
link |
01:33:19.600
things to worry about or think about. And in some cases, those are intelligence agencies
link |
01:33:28.160
doing possible terrorist scenarios so that we can defend against terrorist threats before we
link |
01:33:35.280
see the first one. Sometimes they are computer security attacks so that we can actually close
link |
01:33:43.040
loopholes and vulnerabilities before the very first time someone actually exploits those
link |
01:33:50.640
and so on. Sometimes they are scenarios involving more positive things involving our plans like,
link |
01:33:59.040
for instance, what college should we go to? What career should we go into and so on? What
link |
01:34:04.800
professional training should I take on? That sort of thing. So there are all sorts of useful
link |
01:34:15.920
scenarios that can be generated that way of cause and effect and cause and effect that go out.
link |
01:34:22.800
And many of the linkages in those scenarios, many of the steps involve understanding and reasoning
link |
01:34:31.280
about human motivations, human needs, human emotions, what people are likely to react
link |
01:34:39.040
to in something that you do and why and how and so on. So that was always a very important
link |
01:34:46.960
part of the knowledge that we had to represent in the system. So I talk a lot about love. So I
link |
01:34:52.400
gotta ask, do you remember off the top of your head how psych is trying to is able to represent
link |
01:35:00.720
various aspects of love that are useful for understanding human nature and therefore integrating
link |
01:35:05.920
into this whole knowledge base of common sense? What is love? We try to tease apart concepts that
link |
01:35:13.680
have enormous complexities to them and variety to them down to the level where
link |
01:35:24.560
you don't need to tease them apart further. So love is too general of a term. It's not useful.
link |
01:35:30.480
Exactly. So when you get down to romantic love and sexual attraction, you get down to parental love,
link |
01:35:37.040
you get down to filial love, and you get down to love of doing some kind of activity or creating
link |
01:35:47.920
so eventually you get down to maybe 50 or 60 concepts, each of which is a kind of love.
link |
01:35:56.320
They're interrelated and then each one of them has idiosyncratic things about it. And you don't
link |
01:36:02.720
have to deal with love to get to that level of complexity, even something like in X being in Y,
link |
01:36:11.360
meaning physically in Y. We may have one English word in to represent that, but it's useful to tease
link |
01:36:20.000
that apart because the way that the liquid is in the coffee cup is different from the way that the
link |
01:36:27.360
air is in the room, which is different from the way that I'm in my jacket and so on. And so there
link |
01:36:33.360
are questions like if I look at this coffee cup, well, I see the liquid. If I turn it upside down
link |
01:36:39.680
with a liquid come out and so on. If I have say coffee with sugar in it, if I do the same thing,
link |
01:36:47.440
the sugar doesn't come out. It stays in the liquid because it's dissolved in the liquid and so on.
link |
01:36:52.560
So by now we have about 75 different kinds of in in the system. And it's important to distinguish
link |
01:36:59.440
those. So if you're reading along an English text, you see the word in, the writer of that was able
link |
01:37:10.160
to use this one innocuous word because he or she was able to assume that the reader had enough
link |
01:37:17.040
common sense and world knowledge to disambiguate which of these 75 kinds of in they actually
link |
01:37:23.520
meant. And the same thing with love, you may see the word love. But if I say, I love ice cream,
link |
01:37:28.960
that's obviously different than if I say I love this person or I love to go fishing or something
link |
01:37:35.600
like that. So you have to be careful not to take language too seriously because people have done
link |
01:37:46.720
a kind of parsimony, a kind of terseness, where you have as few words as you as you can, because
link |
01:37:53.680
otherwise you'd need half a million words in your language, which is a lot of words. That's like 10
link |
01:37:59.840
times more than most languages really make use of. And so just like we have on the order of
link |
01:38:07.280
about a million concepts in psych because we've had to tease apart all these things. And so
link |
01:38:14.080
when you look at the name of a psych term, most of the psych terms actually have three or four
link |
01:38:22.160
English words in a phrase, which captures the meaning of this term, because you have to distinguish
link |
01:38:29.520
all these types of love, you have to distinguish all these types of in, and there's not a single
link |
01:38:35.200
English word which captures most of these things. Yeah. And it seems like language, when used for
link |
01:38:41.680
communication between humans, almost as a feature has some ambiguity built in. It's not an accident
link |
01:38:49.360
because the human condition is a giant mess. And so it feels like nobody wants two robots,
link |
01:38:57.280
like very precise formal logic conversation on a first date. There's some dance of uncertainty,
link |
01:39:04.720
of wit, of humor, of push and pull, and all that kind of stuff. If everything is made precise,
link |
01:39:09.760
then life is not worth living, I think, in terms of the human experience.
link |
01:39:14.560
And we've all had this experience of creatively misunderstanding. One of my favorite stories
link |
01:39:26.880
involving Marvin Minsky is when I asked him about how he was able to turn out so many fantastic
link |
01:39:36.160
PhDs, so many fantastic people who did great PhD theses. How did he think of all these great
link |
01:39:44.960
ideas? What he said is he would generally say something that didn't exactly make sense. He
link |
01:39:51.120
didn't really know what it meant. But the student would figure, like, oh my God, Minsky said this,
link |
01:39:56.880
it must be a great idea. And he sweat he or she would work on work and work until they found some
link |
01:40:03.360
meaning in this sort of Chauncey Gardner like utterance that Minsky had made. And then some
link |
01:40:09.600
great theses would come out of it. Yeah, I love this so much because there's young people come
link |
01:40:14.720
up to me and I'm distinctly made aware that the words I say have a long lasting impact.
link |
01:40:21.760
I will now start doing the Minsky method of saying something cryptically profound and then letting
link |
01:40:29.680
them actually make something useful and great out of that. You have to become
link |
01:40:37.040
revered enough that people will take as a default that everything you say is profound.
link |
01:40:43.040
Yes, exactly. Exactly. I mean, I love Marvin Minsky so much. I've heard this interview with him
link |
01:40:49.920
where he said that the key to his success has been to hate everything he's ever done,
link |
01:40:53.920
like in the past. He has so many good like one liners and just or also to work on things that
link |
01:41:03.920
nobody else is working on because he's not very good at doing stuff. Oh, I think that was just
link |
01:41:09.760
false. Well, but see, I took whatever he said and I ran with it and I thought it was profound
link |
01:41:14.560
because it's Marvin Minsky. A lot of behavior is in the eye of the beholder and a lot of the
link |
01:41:20.240
meanings in the eye of the beholder. One of Minsky's early programs was begging program. Are you
link |
01:41:25.440
familiar with this? This was back in the day when you had job control cards at the beginning of your
link |
01:41:33.360
IBM card deck that said things like how many CPU seconds to allow this to run before it got kicked
link |
01:41:40.160
off because computer time was enormously expensive. He wrote a program and all it did was
link |
01:41:46.960
it said give me 30 seconds of CPU time and all it did was it would wait like 20 seconds and then
link |
01:41:54.240
it would print out on the operator's console teletype. I need another 20 seconds. The operator
link |
01:42:01.200
would give it another 20 seconds. It would wait. It says I'm almost done. I need a little bit more
link |
01:42:05.600
time. At the end, he'd get this print out and he'd be charged for like 10 times as much computer
link |
01:42:12.080
time as his job control card. He'd say, look, I put 30 seconds here. You're charging me for
link |
01:42:18.640
five minutes. I'm not going to pay for this. The poor operator would say, well, the program kept
link |
01:42:23.520
asking for more time and Marvin would say, oh, it always does that. I love that. If you could just
link |
01:42:30.960
linger on it for a little bit, is there something you've learned from your interaction with Marvin
link |
01:42:36.480
Minsky about artificial intelligence, about life? Again, your work, his work is a seminal figure
link |
01:42:48.400
in this very short history of artificial intelligence research and development.
link |
01:42:54.880
What have you learned from him as a human being, as an AI intellect?
link |
01:43:00.560
I would say both he and Ed Feigenbaum impressed on me the realization that
link |
01:43:08.800
our lives are finite, our research lives are finite. We're going to have limited opportunities
link |
01:43:14.960
to do AI research projects. You should make each one count. Don't be afraid of doing a project
link |
01:43:21.920
that's going to take years or even decades and don't settle for bump on a log projects
link |
01:43:32.880
that could lead to some published journal article that five people will read and pat you on the
link |
01:43:41.520
head for and so on. One bump on a log after another is not how you get from the earth to the moon
link |
01:43:49.680
by slowly putting additional bumps on this log. The only way to get there is to think about the
link |
01:43:56.720
hard problems and think about novel solutions to them. If you're willing to listen to nature,
link |
01:44:08.320
to empirical reality, willing to be wrong, it's perfectly fine because if occasionally you're
link |
01:44:14.480
right, then you've gotten part of the way to the moon. You've worked on psych for 37 over that
link |
01:44:23.440
many years. Have you ever considered quitting? Has it been too much? I'm sure there's an
link |
01:44:31.760
optimism in the early days that this is going to be way easier. Let me ask you another way too,
link |
01:44:36.880
because I've talked to a few people on this podcast, AI folks, that bringing up psych is an
link |
01:44:42.960
example of a project that has a beautiful vision and it's a beautiful dream, but it never really
link |
01:44:50.320
materialized. That's how it's spoken about. I suppose you could say the same thing about
link |
01:44:57.360
neural networks and all ideas until they are. Why do you think people say that first of all?
link |
01:45:06.080
Second of all, did you feel that ever throughout your journey and did you ever consider quitting
link |
01:45:12.960
on this mission? We keep a very low profile. We don't attend very many conferences. We don't
link |
01:45:20.480
give talks. We don't write papers. We don't play the academic game at all. As a result,
link |
01:45:28.400
people often only know about us because of a paper we wrote 10 or 20 or 30 or 37 years ago.
link |
01:45:38.240
They only know about us because of what someone else's second hand or third hand
link |
01:45:44.240
said about us. Thank you for doing this podcast, by the way. Sure. It shines a little bit of light
link |
01:45:50.560
on some of the fascinating stuff you're doing. Well, I think it's time for us to keep a higher
link |
01:45:55.680
profile now that we're far enough along that other people can begin to help us with the
link |
01:46:04.240
final N percent. Maybe N is maybe 90 percent, but now that we've gotten this knowledge pump primed,
link |
01:46:13.760
it's going to become very important for everyone to help if they are willing to,
link |
01:46:19.360
if they're interested in it. Retirees who have enormous amounts of time and would like to leave
link |
01:46:24.800
some kind of legacy to the world. People because of the pandemic who have more time at home or for
link |
01:46:34.320
one reason or another to be online and contribute. If we can raise awareness of how far our project
link |
01:46:42.320
has come and how close to being primed the knowledge pump is, then we can begin to harness
link |
01:46:50.000
this untapped amount of humanity. I'm not really that concerned about professional colleagues
link |
01:46:58.160
opinions of our project. I'm interested in getting as many people in the world as possible,
link |
01:47:05.120
actively helping and contributing to get us from where we are to really covering all of human
link |
01:47:12.160
knowledge and different human opinion, including contrasting opinion, that's worth representing.
link |
01:47:17.440
So I think that's one reason. I don't think there was ever a time where I thought about
link |
01:47:25.600
quitting. There are times where I've become depressed a little bit about how hard it is to
link |
01:47:32.080
get funding for the system. Occasionally, there are AI winters and things like that.
link |
01:47:37.840
Occasionally, there are AI, what you might call summers, where people have said,
link |
01:47:45.200
why in the world didn't you sell your company to company X for some large amount of money when
link |
01:47:53.040
you had the opportunity and so on. And company X here are like old companies, maybe you've never
link |
01:47:58.640
even heard of like Lycos or something like that. So the answer is that one reason we've stayed a
link |
01:48:06.560
private company, we haven't gone public. One reason that we haven't gone out of our way to take
link |
01:48:12.320
investment dollars is because we want to have control over our future, over our state of being
link |
01:48:21.600
so that we can continue to do this until it's done. And we're making progress and we're now
link |
01:48:28.880
so close to done that almost all of our work is commercial applications of our technology.
link |
01:48:36.320
So five years ago, almost all of our money came from the government. Now virtually none of it
link |
01:48:41.760
comes from the government. Almost all of it is from companies that are actually using it
link |
01:48:45.920
for something, hospital chains using it for medical reasoning about patients and energy
link |
01:48:52.560
companies using it and various other manufacturers using it to reason about supply chains and things
link |
01:48:59.840
like that. So there's so many questions I want to ask. So one of the ways that people can help
link |
01:49:05.760
is by adding to the knowledge base. And that's really basically anybody if the tooling is right.
link |
01:49:10.400
And the other way I kind of want to ask you about your thoughts on this. So you've had like you said
link |
01:49:17.040
in government and you have big clients, you had a lot of clients, but most of it is shrouded in
link |
01:49:23.280
secrecy because of the nature of the relationship of the kind of things you're helping them with.
link |
01:49:28.800
So that's one way to operate. And another way to operate is more in the open where it's more
link |
01:49:35.600
consumer facing. And so hence something like open cycle is born at some point where there's
link |
01:49:43.360
No, that's a misconception. Oh, well, let's go there. So what is open cycle and how was it born?
link |
01:49:50.480
Two things I want to say and I want to say each of them before the other. So it's going to be
link |
01:49:54.480
difficult. But we'll come back to open cycle in a minute. But one of the terms of our contracts
link |
01:50:02.000
with all of our customers and partners is knowledge you have that is genuinely proprietary to you.
link |
01:50:11.120
We will respect that. We'll make sure that it's marked as proprietary to you in the psych knowledge
link |
01:50:16.320
base. No one other than you will be able to see it if you don't want them to and it won't be used
link |
01:50:22.160
in inferences other than for you and so on. However, any knowledge which is necessary
link |
01:50:29.200
in building any applications for you and with you, which is publicly available general human
link |
01:50:36.080
knowledge is not going to be proprietary. It's going to just become part of the normal psych
link |
01:50:41.920
knowledge base. And it will be openly available to everyone who has access to psych. So that's an
link |
01:50:47.760
important constraint that we never went back on even when we got pushback from companies,
link |
01:50:53.920
which we often did, who wanted to claim that almost everything they were telling us was
link |
01:50:58.320
proprietary. So there's a line between very domain specific company specific stuff and the general
link |
01:51:08.400
knowledge that comes from that. Yes, or if you imagine say it's an oil company, there are things
link |
01:51:14.240
which they would expect any new petroleum engineer they hired to already know. And it's not okay
link |
01:51:22.640
for them to consider that that is proprietary. And sometimes a company will say, well, we're the
link |
01:51:28.800
first ones to pay you to represent that in psych. And our attitude is some polite form tough.
link |
01:51:37.520
The deal is this, take it or leave it. And in a few cases, they've left it. And in most cases,
link |
01:51:44.080
they'll see our point of view and take it because that's how we've built the psych system by
link |
01:51:50.320
by essentially tacking with the funding wins, where people would fund a project and half of it
link |
01:51:58.320
would be general knowledge that would stay permanently as part of psych. And so always with
link |
01:52:02.960
these partnerships, it's not like a distraction from the main psych development. It's a small
link |
01:52:09.360
distraction. It's a small but it's not a complete one. So you're adding to the knowledge base.
link |
01:52:13.120
Yes, absolutely. And we try to stay away from projects that would not have that property. So
link |
01:52:21.520
let me go back and talk about OpenPsych for a second. So I've had a lot of trouble
link |
01:52:29.280
expressing and convincing other AI researchers how important it is to use an expressive
link |
01:52:37.680
representation language like we do this higher order logic, rather than just using some triple
link |
01:52:44.400
store knowledge graph type representation. And so as an attempt to show them why they needed
link |
01:52:55.200
something more, we said, Oh, well, we'll represent this unimportant projection or shadow or subset
link |
01:53:04.400
of psych that just happens to be the simple binary relations, the relation argument one argument two
link |
01:53:12.560
triples and so on. And then you'll see how much more useful it is if you had the entire psych
link |
01:53:21.520
system. So it's all well and good to have the taxonomic relations between terms like person
link |
01:53:31.040
and night and sleep and bed and house and eyes and and so on. But think about how much more
link |
01:53:39.600
useful it would be if you also had all the rules of thumb about those things like people sleep at
link |
01:53:46.000
night, they sleep lying down, they sleep with their eyes closed, they usually sleep in beds
link |
01:53:50.080
in our country, they sleep for hours at a time, they can be woken up, they don't like being
link |
01:53:54.960
woken up, and so on and so on. So it's that massive amount of knowledge, which is not part of open
link |
01:54:01.440
psych. And we thought that all the researchers would then immediately immediately say, Oh,
link |
01:54:05.920
my God, of course, we need the other 90% that you're not giving us, let's partner and license
link |
01:54:13.760
psych so that we can use it in our research. But instead, what people said is, Oh, even the bit
link |
01:54:18.880
you've released is so much better than anything we had, we'll just make do with this. And so if
link |
01:54:24.240
you look, there are a lot of robotics companies today, for example, which use open psych as their
link |
01:54:29.680
fundamental ontology. And in some sense, the whole world missed the point of open psych. And we were
link |
01:54:38.240
doing it to show people why that's not really what they wanted. And too many people thought
link |
01:54:43.280
somehow that this was psych or that this was, in fact, good enough for them. And they never even
link |
01:54:48.240
bother coming, coming to us to get access to the full psych. But there's there's two parts to open
link |
01:54:54.640
psych. So one is convincing people an idea on the power of this general kind of representation of
link |
01:54:59.520
knowledge, and the value that you hold in having acquired that knowledge and built it and continue
link |
01:55:04.640
to build it. And the other is the code base. This is the code side of it. So my sense of the code
link |
01:55:13.360
base that psych or psych is operating with, I mean, it has the technical debt of the three decades
link |
01:55:20.880
plus, right? This is the exact same problem that Google had to deal with with the early versions
link |
01:55:26.160
of TensorFlow, it's still dealing with that, that to basically break compatibility with the past
link |
01:55:33.360
several times. And that's only over a period of a couple of years. But they I think successfully
link |
01:55:39.680
opened up, it's very risky, very gutsy move to open up TensorFlow, and then pie torch on the Facebook
link |
01:55:47.360
side. And what you see is, there's a magic place where you can find a community where you can develop
link |
01:55:54.800
a community that builds onto on the system without taking away any of not any but most of the value.
link |
01:56:03.760
So most of the value that Google has is still a Google, most of the value that Facebook has
link |
01:56:08.000
still Facebook, even though some of this major machine learning tooling is released into the
link |
01:56:13.440
open. My question is not so much on the knowledge, which is also a big part of OpenPsych, but all
link |
01:56:20.800
the different kinds of tooling. So the there's the kind of all the kinds of stuff you can do on the
link |
01:56:26.640
knowledge graph knowledge base, whatever we call it, there's the inference engines. So there could
link |
01:56:32.960
be some, there probably are a bunch of proprietary stuff you want to kind of keep secret. And there's
link |
01:56:38.640
probably some stuff you can open up completely, and then let the community build up enough community
link |
01:56:43.600
where they develop stuff on top of it. Yes, there'll be those publications and academic work and all
link |
01:56:48.320
that kind of stuff. And also the tooling of adding to the knowledge base, right, like developing,
link |
01:56:54.800
you know, there's incredible amount, like, there's so many people that are just really good at this
link |
01:56:59.600
kind of stuff in the open source community. So my question for you is like, have you struggled with
link |
01:57:04.800
this kind of idea that you have so much value in your company already, you've developed so many
link |
01:57:10.480
good things, you have clients that really value your relationships. And then there's this dormant,
link |
01:57:16.000
giant open source community that as far as I know, you're not utilizing is there, there's so many
link |
01:57:23.280
things to say there. But there could be magic moments where the community builds up large enough
link |
01:57:31.280
to where the artificial intelligence field that is currently 99.9% machine learning
link |
01:57:37.760
is dominated by machine learning has a phase shift towards like, or at least in part,
link |
01:57:44.160
towards more like what you might call symbolic AI, this whole place where psych is like at the center
link |
01:57:51.920
of, and then as you know, that requires a little bit of leap of faith, because you're now surfing,
link |
01:57:58.160
and there'll be obviously competitors that will pop up and start making you nervous,
link |
01:58:02.800
and all that kind of stuff. So do you think about the space of open sourcing some parts,
link |
01:58:07.520
and not others, how to leverage the community, all those kinds of things?
link |
01:58:12.240
That's a good question. And I think you phrased it the right way, which is,
link |
01:58:15.360
we're constantly struggling with the question of what to open source, what to make public,
link |
01:58:24.080
what to even publicly talk about. And it's, there are enormous pluses and minuses to every
link |
01:58:34.800
alternative. And it's very much like negotiating a very treacherous path. Partly the analogy is
link |
01:58:44.880
like, if you slip, you could make a fatal mistake, give away something which essentially kills you
link |
01:58:51.360
or fail to give away something which failing to give it away hurts you and so on. So it is a very
link |
01:58:59.840
tough question. Usually what we have done with people who've approached us to collaborate on
link |
01:59:10.480
research is to say, we will make available to you the entire knowledge base and executable copies
link |
01:59:20.480
of all of the code, but only very, very limited source code access if you have some idea for
link |
01:59:29.840
how you might improve something or work with us on something. So let me also get back to one of
link |
01:59:36.560
the very, very first things we talked about here, which was separating the question of how could
link |
01:59:45.760
you get a computer to do this at all versus how could you get a computer to do this efficiently
link |
01:59:50.720
enough in real time. And so one of the early lessons we learned was that we had to separate
link |
02:00:00.160
the epistemological problem of what should the system know, separate that from the heuristic
link |
02:00:05.760
problem of how can the system reason efficiently with what it knows. And so instead of trying to
link |
02:00:13.200
pick one representation language, which was the sweet spot or the best tradeoff point between
link |
02:00:20.880
expressiveness of the language and efficiency of the language, if you had to pick one,
link |
02:00:26.320
knowledge graphs would probably be, associative triples would probably be about the best you
link |
02:00:31.520
could do. And that's why we started there. But after a few years, we realized that what we could
link |
02:00:37.440
do is we could split this and we could have one nice clean epistemological level language, which
link |
02:00:44.640
is this higher order logic. And we could have one or more grubby, but efficient heuristic level
link |
02:00:52.880
modules that opportunistically would say, Oh, I can make progress on what you're trying to do over
link |
02:01:00.480
here. I have a special method that will contribute a little bit toward a solution. And so for some
link |
02:01:06.800
subset of that. Exactly. So by now, we have over 1000 of these heuristic level modules,
link |
02:01:13.520
and they function as a kind of community of agents. And there's one of them, which is a
link |
02:01:18.400
general theorem prover. And in theory, that's the only one you need. But in practice, it always
link |
02:01:26.560
takes so long that you never want to call on it. You always want these other agents to very
link |
02:01:33.120
efficiently reason through it, it's sort of like if you're balancing a chemical equation,
link |
02:01:38.080
you could go back to first principles. But in fact, there are algorithms, which are vastly
link |
02:01:43.520
more efficient, or if you're trying to solve a quadratic equation, you could go back to first
link |
02:01:48.720
principles of mathematics. But it's much better to simply recognize that this is a quadratic
link |
02:01:55.520
equation and apply the binomial formula and stop you get your answer right away and so on.
link |
02:02:00.800
So think of these as like 1000 little experts that are all looking at everything the site gets
link |
02:02:08.240
asked and looking at everything that every other little agent has contributed almost like notes
link |
02:02:13.600
on a blackboard notes on a whiteboard, and making additional notes when they think they can be
link |
02:02:21.120
helpful. And gradually, that community of agents gets an answer to your question gets a solution
link |
02:02:27.760
to your problem. And if we ever come up in a domain application where psych is getting the
link |
02:02:33.920
right answer but taking too long, then what we'll often do is talk to one of the human experts and
link |
02:02:41.200
say, here's the set of reasoning steps that psych went through, you can see why it took
link |
02:02:47.680
it a long time to get the answer. How is it that you were able to answer that question in two seconds
link |
02:02:53.120
and occasionally, you'll get an expert who just says, well, I just know it, I just was able to
link |
02:02:59.920
do it or something. And then you don't talk to them anymore. But sometimes you'll get an expert
link |
02:03:04.400
who says, well, let me introspect on that. Yes, here is a special representation we use just for
link |
02:03:11.520
our aqueous chemistry equations, or here's a special representation and a special technique,
link |
02:03:18.480
which we can now apply to things in this special representation and so on. And then you add that
link |
02:03:24.000
as the thousand and first HL heuristic level module. And from then on, in any application,
link |
02:03:31.280
if it ever comes up again, it'll be able to contribute and so on. So that that's pretty much
link |
02:03:36.800
one of the main ways in which psych has recouped this lost efficiency. A second important way is
link |
02:03:45.040
meta reasoning. So you can speed things up by focusing on removing knowledge from the system
link |
02:03:53.280
till all it has left is like minimal knowledge needed to, but that's the wrong thing to do,
link |
02:03:58.320
right? That would be like in a human extirpating part of their brain or something, that's really
link |
02:04:02.400
bad. So instead, what you want to do is give it meta level advice, tactical and strategic advice
link |
02:04:09.040
that enables it to reason about what kind of knowledge is going to be relevant to this problem,
link |
02:04:15.520
what kind of tactics are going to be good to take in trying to attack this problem?
link |
02:04:20.240
When is it time to start trying to prove the negation of this thing? Because I'm
link |
02:04:25.200
knocking myself out trying to prove it's true and maybe it's false. And if I just spend a minute,
link |
02:04:29.440
I can see that it's false or something. So it's like dynamically pruning the graph to only like
link |
02:04:36.560
based on the particular thing you're trying to infer? Yes. And so by now, we have about 150
link |
02:04:44.800
of these sort of like breakthrough ideas that have led to dramatic speed ups in the inference
link |
02:04:51.680
process, where one of them was this ELHL split and lots of HL modules. Another one was using
link |
02:04:58.960
meta and meta, meta level reasoning to reason about the reasoning that's going on and so on.
link |
02:05:06.320
And 150 breakthroughs may sound like a lot, but if you divide by 37 years, it's not as impressive.
link |
02:05:13.520
So there's these heuristic modules that really help improve the inference.
link |
02:05:18.560
How hard in general is this, because you mentioned higher order logic. In the general,
link |
02:05:28.720
the theorem prover sense, it's an intractable, very difficult problem. So how hard is this
link |
02:05:35.920
inference problem when we're not talking about if we let go of the perfect and focus on the good?
link |
02:05:42.960
I would say it's half of the problem in the following empirical sense, which is over the years,
link |
02:05:52.480
about half of our effort, maybe 40% of our effort has been our team of inference programmers.
link |
02:06:01.200
And the other 50, 60% has been our ontologists or ontological engineers putting in knowledge.
link |
02:06:07.200
So our ontological engineers, in most cases, don't even know how to program. They have degrees in
link |
02:06:12.320
things like philosophy and so on. So it's almost like... I love that. I'd love to hang out with
link |
02:06:17.520
those people actually. Oh yes, it's wonderful. But it's very much like the Eloi and the Morlocks
link |
02:06:22.400
in HG Wells Time Machine. So you have the Eloi who only program in the epistemological higher
link |
02:06:29.840
order logic language. And then you have the Morlocks who are like, under the ground, figuring
link |
02:06:36.800
out what the machinery is that will make this efficiently operate and so on. And so occasionally
link |
02:06:43.920
they'll toss messages back to each other and so on. But it really is almost this 50, 50 split
link |
02:06:50.800
between finding clever ways to recoup efficiency when you have an expressive language and putting
link |
02:06:58.880
in the content of what the system needs to know. And yeah, both are fascinating. To some degree,
link |
02:07:04.640
the entirety of the system, as far as I understand, is written in various variants of LISP. So my
link |
02:07:12.240
favorite program language is still LISP. I don't program it in much anymore because the world has,
link |
02:07:19.360
in majority of its system, has moved on. Like everybody respects LISP, but many of the systems
link |
02:07:26.160
are not written in LISP anymore. But psych, as far as I understand, maybe you can correct me,
link |
02:07:31.840
there's a bunch of LISP in it. Yeah. So it's based on LISP code that we produced. Most of the
link |
02:07:38.400
programming is still going on in a dialect of LISP. And then for efficiency reasons, that gets
link |
02:07:45.840
automatically translated into things like Java or C nowadays. It's almost all translated into Java
link |
02:07:53.520
because Java has gotten good enough that that's really all we need to do. So it's translated
link |
02:07:59.200
into Java and then Java is compiled down by code. Yes. Okay. So that's a process that probably
link |
02:08:10.880
has to do with the fact that when psych was originally written and you built up a powerful
link |
02:08:15.680
system, there is some technical depth you have to deal with, as is the case with most
link |
02:08:21.120
powerful systems that span years. Have you ever considered, this would help me understand,
link |
02:08:30.000
because from my perspective, so much of the value of everything you've done with psych and psych
link |
02:08:37.120
op is the knowledge. Have you ever considered just like throwing away the code base and starting
link |
02:08:44.000
from scratch, not really throwing away, but sort of moving it to like throwing away that
link |
02:08:52.400
technical debt, starting with a more updated programming language. Is that throwing away
link |
02:08:58.640
a lot of value or no? Like, what's your sense? How much of the value is in the silly software
link |
02:09:03.840
engineering aspect and how much of the value is in the knowledge? So development of programs in Lisp
link |
02:09:16.800
proceeds, I think, somewhere between 1,000 and 50,000 times faster than development in any of what
link |
02:09:26.480
you're calling modern or improved computer languages. Well, there's other functional
link |
02:09:31.120
language like Closure and all that. But I mean, I'm with you. I like Lisp. I just wonder how many
link |
02:09:38.000
great programmers there are. They're still like... Yes. So it is true when a new inference
link |
02:09:43.280
programmer comes on board, they need to learn some of Lisp. And in fact, we have a subset of Lisp,
link |
02:09:50.720
which we call cleverly sub L, which is really all they need to learn. And so the programming
link |
02:09:57.360
actually goes on in sub L, not in full Lisp. And so it does not take programmers very long at all to
link |
02:10:04.080
learn sub L. And that's something which can then be translated efficiently into Java. And for some
link |
02:10:12.480
of our programmers who are doing, say, user interface work, then they never have to even learn
link |
02:10:17.760
sub L. They just have to learn APIs into the basic psych engine. So you're not necessarily
link |
02:10:24.640
feeling the burden of, like, it's extremely efficient. That's not a problem to solve.
link |
02:10:31.520
Right. The other thing is, remember that we're talking about hiring programmers to do inference
link |
02:10:37.600
who are programmers interested in effectively automatic theorem proving. And so those are
link |
02:10:43.600
people already predisposed to representing things in logic and so on. And Lisp really was
link |
02:10:50.080
the programming language based on logic that John McCarthy and others who developed it
link |
02:10:57.840
basically took the formalisms that Alonzo Church and other philosophers, other logicians,
link |
02:11:05.280
had come up with and basically said, can we basically make a programming language,
link |
02:11:10.800
which is effectively logic? And so since we're talking about reasoning
link |
02:11:16.320
in, about expressions written in this logical epistemological language, and we're doing
link |
02:11:23.600
operations which are effectively like theorem proving type operations and so on, there's a
link |
02:11:29.280
natural impedance match between Lisp and the knowledge the way it's represented. So I guess
link |
02:11:36.720
you could say it's a perfectly logical language to use. Oh, yes. Okay, I'm sorry. I'll even let you
link |
02:11:45.200
get away with that. I appreciate it. So I'll probably use that in the future without. Without
link |
02:11:51.600
credit. Without credit. But no, I think the point is that the language you program in
link |
02:11:59.040
isn't really that important. It's more that you have to be able to think in terms of, for instance,
link |
02:12:05.920
creating new helpful HL modules and how they'll work with each other and looking at things that
link |
02:12:13.040
are taking a long time and coming up with new specialized data structures that will make this
link |
02:12:19.440
efficient. So let me just give you one very simple example, which is when you have a
link |
02:12:24.400
transitive relation, like larger than this is larger than that, which is larger than that,
link |
02:12:29.360
which is larger than that. So the first thing must be larger than the last thing. Whenever
link |
02:12:33.360
you have a transitive relation, if you're not careful, if I ask whether this thing over here
link |
02:12:39.440
is larger than the thing over here, I'll have to do some kind of graph walk or theorem proving that
link |
02:12:45.120
might involve like five or 10 or 20 or 30 steps. But if you store, redundantly, store the transitive
link |
02:12:52.960
closure, the cleaning star of that transitive relation, now you have this big table, but you
link |
02:12:59.120
can always guarantee that in one single step, you can just look up whether this is larger than that.
link |
02:13:05.600
And so we, there are lots of cases where storage is cheap today. And so by having this extra
link |
02:13:14.000
redundant data structure, we can answer this commonly occurring type of question very, very
link |
02:13:20.480
efficiently. And let me give you one other analogy, analog of that, which is something we call rule
link |
02:13:28.080
macro predicates, which is, we'll see this complicated rule. And we'll notice that things
link |
02:13:36.080
very much like it syntactically come up again and again and again. So we'll create a whole brand
link |
02:13:42.720
new relation or predicate or function that captures that and takes maybe not two arguments,
link |
02:13:50.160
takes maybe three, four or five arguments and so on. And now we have effectively converted some
link |
02:14:00.240
complicated if then rule that might have to have inference done on it into some ground atomic
link |
02:14:07.040
formula, which is just a the name of a relation and a few arguments and so on. And so converting
link |
02:14:14.560
commonly occurring types or schemas of rules into brand new predicates, brand new functions,
link |
02:14:21.920
turns out to enormously speed up the inference process. So now we've covered about four of the
link |
02:14:28.880
150 good ideas I said. So that's a nice, that's a cool, so that idea in particular is like a nice
link |
02:14:34.480
compression that turns out to be really useful. That's really interesting. I mean, this whole
link |
02:14:38.400
thing is just fascinating from a philosophical, there's part of me, I mean, it makes me a little
link |
02:14:43.200
bit sad because your work is both from a computer science perspective, fascinating on the inference
link |
02:14:50.640
engine from epistemological philosophical aspect, fascinating. But you know, it is also you're
link |
02:14:57.760
running a company and there's some stuff that has to remain private. And it's sad.
link |
02:15:03.280
Well, here's something that may make you feel better, a little bit better.
link |
02:15:06.640
We're, we've formed a not not for profit company called the Knowledge
link |
02:15:13.360
Activitization Institute, NACS, KNAX. And I have this firm belief with a lot of empirical
link |
02:15:20.960
evidence to support it that the, the education that people get in high schools and colleges
link |
02:15:28.720
and graduate schools and so on is almost completely orthogonal to almost completely
link |
02:15:35.360
irrelevant to how good they're going to be at coming up to speed in doing this kind of
link |
02:15:43.120
ontological engineering and writing these assertions and rules and so on in, in psych.
link |
02:15:49.280
And so very often we'll interview candidates who have their PhD in philosophy who've taught logic
link |
02:15:55.520
for years and so on. And they're just, they're just awful. But the converse is true. So one of
link |
02:16:01.040
the best ontological engineers we ever had never graduated high school. And so the purpose of
link |
02:16:08.720
Knowledge Activitization Institute, if we can get some, some foundations to help support it, is
link |
02:16:15.280
identify people in the general population, maybe high school dropouts, who have latent talent
link |
02:16:22.720
for this sort of thing, offer them effectively scholarships to train them and then help place
link |
02:16:30.480
them in companies that need more trained ontological engineers, some of which would be working for
link |
02:16:36.400
us, but mostly would be working for partners or customers or something. And if we could do that,
link |
02:16:41.920
that would create an enormous number of relatively very high paying jobs for people who currently
link |
02:16:48.880
have no, no way out of some, you know, situation that they're locked into.
link |
02:16:54.880
So is there something you can put into words that describes somebody who would be great
link |
02:17:01.040
at ontological engineering? So what characteristics about a person make them great at this task?
link |
02:17:08.480
This task of converting the messiness of human language and knowledge into formal logic.
link |
02:17:17.040
This is very much like what Alan Turing had to do during World War II in trying to find
link |
02:17:22.720
people to bring to Bletchley Park where he would publish in the London Times cryptic
link |
02:17:28.400
crossword puzzles along with some, some innocuous looking note, which essentially said, if you
link |
02:17:34.720
were able to solve this puzzle in less than 15 minutes, please call this phone number and so on.
link |
02:17:41.200
So, you know, or back when I was young, there was the practice of having a matchbooks where on
link |
02:17:49.280
the inside of the matchbook, there would be a, can you draw this? You have a career in art,
link |
02:17:56.000
commercial art, if you can copy this drawing and so on. So yes, the analog of that.
link |
02:18:02.320
Was there a little test to get to the core of whether it could be good or not?
link |
02:18:05.840
So part of it has to do with being able to make and appreciate and react negatively
link |
02:18:13.440
appropriately to puns and other jokes. So you have to have a kind of sense of humor.
link |
02:18:18.400
And if you're good at telling jokes and good at understanding jokes, that's one indicator.
link |
02:18:25.200
Like puns? Like dad jokes?
link |
02:18:26.960
Yes. Well, maybe not dad jokes, but real, but funny jokes.
link |
02:18:32.560
I think I'm applying to work as sacro.
link |
02:18:34.240
Yeah, but another is if you're able to introspect. So very often we'll give someone a
link |
02:18:42.240
simple question and we'll say like, why is this? And, you know, sometimes they'll just say,
link |
02:18:50.240
because it is, okay, that's a bad sign. But very often they'll be able to introspect and so on.
link |
02:18:56.400
So one of the questions I often ask is I'll point to a sentence with a pronoun in it and I'll say,
link |
02:19:02.800
you know, the referend of that pronoun is obviously this noun over here.
link |
02:19:06.160
You know, how would you or I or an AI or a five year old, 10 year old child know that that pronoun
link |
02:19:14.240
refers to that noun over here? And often the people who are going to be good at ontological
link |
02:19:22.960
engineering will give me some causal explanation or will refer to some things that are true in
link |
02:19:28.400
the world. So if you imagine a sentence like the horse was led into the barn while its head
link |
02:19:33.760
while its head was still wet. And so its head refers to the horse's head. But how do you know that?
link |
02:19:40.080
And so some people will say, I just know it, some people will say, well, the horse was the subject
link |
02:19:44.160
of the sentence. And I'll say, okay, well, what about the horse was led into the barn while its
link |
02:19:49.040
roof was still wet? Now its roof obviously refers to the barn. And so then they'll say, oh, well,
link |
02:19:56.160
that's because it's the closest noun and so on. So basically, if they try to give me answers,
link |
02:20:01.680
which are based on syntax and grammar and so on, that's a really bad sign. But if they're able to
link |
02:20:08.160
say things like, well, horses have heads and barns don't and barns have roofs and horses don't,
link |
02:20:14.240
then that's a positive sign that they're going to be good at this because they can
link |
02:20:17.760
introspect on what's true in the world that leads you to know certain things.
link |
02:20:22.560
How fascinating is it that getting a PhD makes you less capable to introspect deeply about this?
link |
02:20:28.480
Oh, I wouldn't go that far. I'm not saying that it makes you less capable. Let's just say it's
link |
02:20:33.360
independent of how good people are. Okay, you're not saying that. I'm saying that. There's a
link |
02:20:39.200
certain, it's interesting that for a lot of people, PhDs, sorry, philosophy aside,
link |
02:20:46.800
that sometimes education narrows your thinking versus expands it. It's kind of fascinating.
link |
02:20:53.280
And for certain, when you're trying to do ontological engineering, which is essentially teach
link |
02:20:58.720
our future AI overlords how to reason deeply about this world and how to understand it,
link |
02:21:05.200
that requires that you think deeply about the world.
link |
02:21:08.480
So I'll tell you a sad story about mathcraft, which is why is that not widely used in schools
link |
02:21:14.640
today? We're not really trying to make big profit on it or anything like that. But when we've gone
link |
02:21:21.440
to schools, their attitude has been, well, if a student spends 20 hours going through this
link |
02:21:27.920
mathcraft program from start to end and so on, will it improve their score on this standardized test
link |
02:21:36.800
more than if they spent 20 hours just doing mindless drills of problem after problem after
link |
02:21:42.880
problem? And the answer is, well, no, but it'll increase their understanding more and their
link |
02:21:47.840
attitude is, well, if it doesn't increase their score on this test, then we're not going to adopt it.
link |
02:21:55.840
That's sad. I mean, that's a whole another three, four hour conversation about the education system.
link |
02:22:01.680
But let me ask you, let me go super philosophical as if we weren't already. So in 1950, Alan Turing
link |
02:22:08.560
wrote the paper that formulated the Turing test. And he opened the paper with the question,
link |
02:22:13.760
can machines think? So what do you think? Can machines think? Let me ask you this question.
link |
02:22:20.320
Absolutely. Machines can think certainly as well as humans can think, right? We're
link |
02:22:28.400
meat machines. Just because they're not currently made out of meat is just an engineering solution
link |
02:22:34.960
decision and so on. So of course, machines can think. I think that there was a lot of
link |
02:22:46.080
damage done by people misunderstanding Turing's imitation game and focus on trying to get a chat
link |
02:22:59.680
bot to fool other people into thinking it was human and so on. That's not a terrible test in
link |
02:23:08.160
and of itself, but it shouldn't be your one and only test for intelligence. So in terms of tests
link |
02:23:14.000
of intelligence, with the Lobner Prize, which is a more strict formulation of the Turing test
link |
02:23:23.360
as originally formulated, and then there's something like Alexa Prize, which is more, I would say,
link |
02:23:30.320
a more interesting formulation of the test, which is ultimately the metric is how long does a human
link |
02:23:37.360
want to talk to the AI system? So the goal is you want it to be 20 minutes. It's basically
link |
02:23:45.200
not just have a convincing conversation, but more like a compelling one or a fun one or an
link |
02:23:51.920
interesting one. That seems like more to the spirit, maybe, of what Turing was imagining.
link |
02:24:00.880
But what for you do you think in the space of tests is a good test? When you see a system
link |
02:24:07.920
based on psych that passes that test, you'd be like, damn, we've created something special here.
link |
02:24:14.240
The test has to be something involving depth of reasoning and recursiveness of reasoning,
link |
02:24:23.440
the ability to answer repeated why questions about the answer you just gave.
link |
02:24:29.840
It's how many why questions in a row can you keep answering?
link |
02:24:32.720
Something like that.
link |
02:24:36.160
Just have a young, curious child and an AI system, and how long will an AI system last before it
link |
02:24:42.560
wants to quit? Again, that's not the only test. Another one has to do with argumentation. In
link |
02:24:48.000
other words, here's a proposition. Come up with pro and con arguments for it, and try and give me
link |
02:24:58.480
convincing arguments on both sides. That's another important kind of ability that the system needs
link |
02:25:08.000
to be able to exhibit in order to really be intelligent, I think. There's certain, if you
link |
02:25:14.720
look at IBM Watson and certain impressive accomplishments for a very specific test,
link |
02:25:20.880
almost like a demo. I talked to the guy who led the Jeopardy effort. There's some kind of hard
link |
02:25:35.280
coding heuristics tricks that you try to pull it all together to make the thing work in the end
link |
02:25:41.200
for this thing. That seems to be one of the lessons with AI is that's the fastest way to
link |
02:25:48.320
get a solution that's pretty damn impressive. Here's what I would say is that as impressive as
link |
02:25:56.320
that was, it made some mistakes. But more importantly, many of the mistakes it made
link |
02:26:02.880
were mistakes which no human would have made. Part of the new or augmented touring tests
link |
02:26:14.880
would have to be, and the mistakes you make are ones which humans don't basically look at and
link |
02:26:22.160
say what. For example, there was a question about which 16th century Italian politician and Watson
link |
02:26:35.280
said Ronald Reagan. Most Americans would have gotten that question wrong, but they would never
link |
02:26:41.120
have said Ronald Reagan as an answer because among the things they know is that he lived
link |
02:26:48.640
relatively recently and people don't really live 400 years and things like that. That's
link |
02:26:54.960
I think a very important thing which is if it's making mistakes which no normal sane human would
link |
02:27:02.720
have made, then that's a really bad sign. If it's not making those kinds of mistakes, then that's
link |
02:27:08.960
a good sign. I don't think it's any one very, very simple test. I think it's all of the things you
link |
02:27:14.320
mentioned, all the things I mentioned. There's really a battery of tests which together, if it
link |
02:27:19.920
passes almost all of these tests, it would be hard to argue that it's not intelligent. If it
link |
02:27:25.840
fails several of these tests, it's really hard to argue that it really understands what it's doing
link |
02:27:31.520
and that it really is generally intelligent. To pass all of those tests, we've talked a lot
link |
02:27:37.280
about psych and knowledge and reasoning. Do you think this AI system would need to have some other
link |
02:27:44.720
human like elements? For example, a body or a physical manifestation in this world and another
link |
02:27:53.440
one which seems to be fundamental to the human experience is consciousness. The subjective
link |
02:28:00.640
experience of what it's like to actually be you. Do you think he needs those to be able to pass all
link |
02:28:06.960
of those tests and to achieve general intelligence? It's a good question. I think in the case of a
link |
02:28:10.960
body, no, I know there are a lot of people like Penrose who would have disagreed with me and others,
link |
02:28:19.360
but no, I don't think it needs to have a body in order to be intelligent. I think that it needs
link |
02:28:25.520
to be able to talk about having a body and having sensations and having emotions and so on. It doesn't
link |
02:28:34.240
actually have to have all of that, but it has to understand it in the same way that Helen Keller
link |
02:28:40.720
was perfectly intelligent and able to talk about colors and sounds and shapes and so on,
link |
02:28:49.280
even though she didn't directly experience all the same things that the rest of us do. Knowledge
link |
02:28:56.720
of it and being able to correctly make use of that is certainly an important facility,
link |
02:29:04.880
but actually having a body, if you believe that that's just a kind of religious or mystical
link |
02:29:10.720
belief, you can't really argue for or against it, I suppose. It's just something that some people
link |
02:29:18.240
believe. What about an extension of the body which is consciousness? It feels like something
link |
02:29:26.320
to be here. Sure, but what does that really mean? It's like, well, if I talk to you, you say things
link |
02:29:33.040
which make me believe that you're conscious. I know that I'm conscious, but you're just taking
link |
02:29:38.560
my word for it now. But in the same sense, psych is conscious in that same sense already where,
link |
02:29:44.720
of course, it understands. It's a computer program. It understands where and when it's
link |
02:29:49.360
running. It understands who's talking to it. It understands what its task is, what its goals
link |
02:29:54.000
are, what its current problem is that it's working on. It understands how long it's spent on things,
link |
02:29:58.560
what it's tried. It understands what it's done in the past and so on. If we want to call that
link |
02:30:07.440
consciousness, then yes, psych is already conscious, but I don't think that I would describe anything
link |
02:30:14.400
mystical to that. Again, some people would, but I would say that other than our own personal
link |
02:30:20.640
experience of consciousness, we're just treating everyone else in the world, so to speak, at their
link |
02:30:27.520
word about being conscious. If a computer program, if an AI is able to exhibit all the same kinds of
link |
02:30:38.720
response as you would expect of a conscious entity, then doesn't it deserve the label of
link |
02:30:45.600
consciousness just as much? There's another burden that comes with this whole intelligence
link |
02:30:50.320
thing that humans got is the extinguishing of the light of consciousness, which is
link |
02:30:58.560
kind of realizing that we're going to be dead someday. There's a bunch of philosophers like
link |
02:31:04.080
Ernest Becker who kind of think that this realization of mortality and then fear, sometimes
link |
02:31:12.640
they call it terror of mortality is one of the creative forces behind human condition.
link |
02:31:23.280
It's the thing that drives us. Do you think it's important for an AI system?
link |
02:31:29.040
When Psyche proposed that it's not human and it's one of the moderators of his contents,
link |
02:31:37.440
you know, there's another question it could ask, which is like it kind of knows that humans are
link |
02:31:44.560
mortal. Am I mortal? And I think one really important thing that's possible when you're
link |
02:31:52.640
conscious is to fear the extinguishing of that consciousness, the fear of mortality. Do you
link |
02:31:59.120
think that's useful for intelligence? Thinking like I might die and I really don't want to die?
link |
02:32:05.120
I don't think so. I think it may help some humans to be better people. It may help some
link |
02:32:13.520
humans to be more creative and so on. I don't think it's necessary for AIs to believe that
link |
02:32:21.440
they have limited life spans and therefore they should make the most of their behavior. Maybe
link |
02:32:26.000
eventually the answer to that and my answer to that will change, but as of now I would say that
link |
02:32:31.680
that's almost like a frill or a side effect that is not. In fact, if you look at most humans,
link |
02:32:38.640
most humans ignore the fact that they're going to die most of the time.
link |
02:32:44.800
Well, but that's like this goes to the white space between the words. So what Ernest Becker
link |
02:32:50.720
argues is that that ignoring is reliving an illusion that we constructed on the foundation
link |
02:32:56.400
of this terror. So we escape life as we know it, pursuing things, creating things, love.
link |
02:33:04.640
Everything we can think of that's beautiful about humanity is just trying to escape this
link |
02:33:10.800
realization of going to die one day. That's his idea and I think, I don't know if I 100%
link |
02:33:18.880
believe in this, but it certainly rhymes. It seems like to me like it rhymes with the truth.
link |
02:33:25.120
Yeah, I think that for some people, that's going to be a more powerful factor than others.
link |
02:33:32.880
Clearly Doug is talking about Russians.
link |
02:33:35.440
And I think that
link |
02:33:39.600
some Russians, clearly it infiltrates all of Russian literature.
link |
02:33:44.320
And AI doesn't have to have fear of death as a motivating force in that we can build in motivation.
link |
02:33:55.520
So we can build in the motivation of obeying users and making users happy and making others
link |
02:34:03.200
happy and so on. And that can substitute for this sort of personal fear of death that sometimes
link |
02:34:12.400
leads to bursts of creativity in humans. Yeah, I don't know. I think AI really
link |
02:34:20.080
needs to understand death deeply in order to be able to drive a car, for example.
link |
02:34:24.800
I think there's just some... No, I really disagree. I think it needs to understand
link |
02:34:31.760
the value of human life, especially the value of human life to other humans,
link |
02:34:35.680
and understand that certain things are more important than other things.
link |
02:34:42.000
So it has to have a lot of knowledge about ethics and morality and so on.
link |
02:34:48.000
But some of it is so messy that it's impossible to encode, for example.
link |
02:34:51.600
I disagree.
link |
02:34:53.600
So if there's a person dying right in front of us, most human beings would help that person,
link |
02:34:59.120
but they would not apply that same ethics to everybody else in the world.
link |
02:35:03.600
I mean, this is the tragedy of how difficult it is to be a doctor,
link |
02:35:07.920
because they know when they help a dying child, they know that the money they're spending on this
link |
02:35:13.600
child cannot possibly be spent on every other child that's dying. And that's a very difficult
link |
02:35:21.120
to encode decision. Now, perhaps it could be formalized.
link |
02:35:27.600
Oh, but I mean, you're talking about autonomous vehicles, right? So autonomous vehicles are
link |
02:35:33.760
going to have to make those decisions all the time of what is the chance of this bad event
link |
02:35:41.680
happening? How bad is that compared to this chance of that bad event happening and so on?
link |
02:35:47.280
And when a potential accident is about to happen, is it worth taking this risk if I have to make
link |
02:35:53.440
a choice? Which of these two cars am I going to hit and why?
link |
02:35:56.720
See, I was thinking about a very different choice when I'm talking about your mortality,
link |
02:36:00.960
which is just observing Manhattan style driving. I think that humans, as an effective driver,
link |
02:36:09.600
needs to threaten pedestrians lives a lot. There's a dance, I've watched pedestrians a lot,
link |
02:36:17.040
I worked on this problem. And it seems like if I could summarize the problem of a pedestrian
link |
02:36:24.160
crossing is the car with this movement is saying, I'm going to kill you. And the pedestrian is saying,
link |
02:36:32.400
maybe, and then they decide and they say, no, I don't think you have the guts to kill me. And
link |
02:36:37.200
they walk in front and they look away. And there's that dance, the pedestrian,
link |
02:36:42.800
as this is social contract, that the pedestrian trusts that once they're in front of the car
link |
02:36:47.680
and the car is sufficiently from a physics perspective able to stop, they're going to stop.
link |
02:36:52.960
But the car also has to threaten that pedestrian is like, I'm late for work. So you're being kind
link |
02:36:58.640
of an asshole by crossing in front of me. But life and death is in like, it's part of the
link |
02:37:04.320
calculation here. And it's that that equation is being solved millions of times a day.
link |
02:37:11.440
Yes, very effectively that game theory, whatever, whatever that formulation is, I just, I don't
link |
02:37:16.720
know if it's as simple as some formalizable game theory problem. It could very well be
link |
02:37:23.280
in the case of driving and in the case of most of human society. I don't know. But
link |
02:37:29.920
yeah, you might be right that sort of the fear of death is just one of the quirks
link |
02:37:34.640
of like the way our brains have evolved. But it's not, it's not a necessary feature of
link |
02:37:40.560
of intelligence. Drivers certainly are always doing this kind of estimate, even if it's unconscious,
link |
02:37:47.440
subconscious, of what are the chances of various bad outcomes happening? Like for instance,
link |
02:37:54.240
if I don't wait for this pedestrian or something like that. And what is the downside to me going
link |
02:38:00.640
to be in terms of time wasted talking to the police or getting sent to jail or things like
link |
02:38:09.920
that. And so... And there's also emotion, like people in their cars tend to get irrationally
link |
02:38:16.240
angry. That's dangerous. But think about, this is all part of why I think that autonomous vehicles,
link |
02:38:23.840
truly autonomous vehicles are farther out than most people do, because there is this enormous
link |
02:38:31.120
level of complexity which goes beyond mechanically controlling the car. And I can see the autonomous
link |
02:38:42.240
vehicles as a kind of metaphorical and literal accident waiting to happen. And not just because
link |
02:38:48.080
of their overall incurring versus preventing accidents and so on, but just because of the
link |
02:38:58.320
almost voracious appetite people have for bad stories about powerful companies and powerful
link |
02:39:11.520
entities. When I was at a, coincidentally, Japanese fifth generation computing system
link |
02:39:19.040
conference in 1987, while I happened to be there, there was a worker at an auto plant who was
link |
02:39:25.440
despondent and committed suicide by climbing under the safety chains and so on and getting stamped
link |
02:39:30.880
to death by a machine. And instead of being a small story that said despondent worker commits
link |
02:39:37.040
suicide, it was front page news that effectively said robot kills worker because the public is
link |
02:39:45.200
just waiting for stories about like AI kills phonogenic family of five type stories. And
link |
02:39:54.240
even if you could show that nationwide, this system saved more lives than it cost and saved
link |
02:40:01.920
more injuries, prevented more injuries than it caused and so on. The media, the public,
link |
02:40:07.920
the government is just coiled and ready to pounce on stories where in fact it failed,
link |
02:40:16.720
even if there are relatively few. Yeah, it's so fascinating to watch us humans resisting the
link |
02:40:24.960
cutting edge of science and technology and almost like hoping for it to fail and constantly, you
link |
02:40:30.240
know, this just happens over and over and over throughout history. Or even if we're not hoping
link |
02:40:34.720
for it to fail, we're fascinated by it. And in terms of what we find interesting, the one in
link |
02:40:41.760
a thousand failures much more interesting than the 999 boring successes. So once we build an
link |
02:40:49.520
AGI system, say psych is some part of some part of it, and say it's very possible that you would be
link |
02:40:58.640
one of the first people that can sit down in the room, let's say with her and have a conversation,
link |
02:41:05.040
what would you ask her? What would you talk about? Looking at all of the
link |
02:41:14.160
content out there on the web and so on. What are the,
link |
02:41:25.040
what are some possible solutions to big problems that the world has that
link |
02:41:30.080
people haven't really thought of before that are not being properly or at least adequately
link |
02:41:38.400
pursued? What are some novel solutions that you can think of that we haven't that might work
link |
02:41:46.320
and that might be worth considering? So that is a damn good question. Given that the AGI is going
link |
02:41:52.240
to be somewhat different from human intelligence, it's still going to make some mistakes that we
link |
02:41:58.000
wouldn't make, but it's also possibly going to notice some blind spots we have. And I would
link |
02:42:05.680
love it as a test of is it really on a par with our intelligence is can it help spot some of the
link |
02:42:14.480
blind spots that we have? So the two part question of can you help identify what are the big problems
link |
02:42:22.160
in the world and two, what are some novel solutions to those problems that are not being
link |
02:42:28.640
talked about by anyone? And some of those may become infeasible or reprehensible or something,
link |
02:42:36.400
but some of them might be actually great things to look at. If you go back and look at some of the
link |
02:42:41.840
most powerful discoveries that have been made like relativity and superconductivity and so on,
link |
02:42:50.400
a lot of them were cases where someone took seriously the idea that there might actually be
link |
02:43:01.200
a nonobvious answer to a question. So in Einstein's case, it was, yeah, the Lorenz transformation is
link |
02:43:08.320
known. Nobody believes that it's actually the way reality works. What if it were the way that
link |
02:43:13.360
reality actually worked? So a lot of people don't realize he didn't actually work out that equation,
link |
02:43:18.400
he just sort of took it seriously. Or in the case of superconductivity, you have this V equals IR
link |
02:43:24.880
equation where R is resistance and so on. And it was being mapped at lower and lower temperatures,
link |
02:43:32.400
but everyone thought that was just bump on a log research to show that V equals IR always held.
link |
02:43:39.680
And then when some graduate student got to a slightly lower temperature and showed that
link |
02:43:46.160
resistance suddenly dropped off, everyone just assumed that they did it wrong. And it was only
link |
02:43:51.760
a little while later that they realized it was actually a new phenomenon. Or in the case of
link |
02:43:59.040
the H. pylori bacteria causing stomach ulcers, where everyone thought that stress and stomach
link |
02:44:05.760
acid caused ulcers. And when a doctor in Australia claimed it was actually a bacterial infection,
link |
02:44:14.720
he couldn't get anyone seriously to listen to him. And he had to ultimately inject himself
link |
02:44:21.440
with the bacteria to show that he suddenly developed a life threatening ulcer
link |
02:44:26.560
in order to get other doctors to seriously consider that. So there are all sorts of things where
link |
02:44:33.040
humans are locked into paradigms, what Thomas Kuhn called paradigms. And we can't get out of them
link |
02:44:39.360
very easily. So a lot of AI is locked into the deep learning machine learning paradigm right now.
link |
02:44:47.360
And almost all of us and almost all sciences are locked into current paradigms. And Kuhn's point
link |
02:44:54.240
was pretty much you have to wait for people to die in order for the new generation to escape
link |
02:45:01.760
those paradigms. And I think that one of the things that would change that sad reality is if we had
link |
02:45:07.840
trusted AGI's that could help take a step back and question some of the paradigms that we're
link |
02:45:15.440
currently locked into. Yeah, it would accelerate the paradigm shifts in human science and progress.
link |
02:45:24.080
You've lived a very interesting life where you thought about big ideas and you stuck with them.
link |
02:45:31.600
Can you give advice to young people today, somebody in high school, somebody undergrad,
link |
02:45:36.800
undergrad about career, about life? I'd say you can make a difference.
link |
02:45:47.600
But in order to make a difference, you're going to have to have the courage
link |
02:45:51.520
to follow through with ideas which other people might not immediately understand or
link |
02:45:59.760
support. You have to realize that if you make some plan that's going to take an extended
link |
02:46:12.560
period of time to carry out, don't be afraid of that. That's true of physical training of your
link |
02:46:20.240
body. That's true of learning some profession. That's also true of innovation, that some
link |
02:46:29.760
innovations are not great ideas you can write down on a napkin and become an instant success
link |
02:46:37.120
if you turn out to be right. Some of them are paths you have to follow. But remember that you're
link |
02:46:44.880
mortal. Remember that you have a limited number of decade sized bets to make with your life.
link |
02:46:53.520
You should make each one of them count. That's true in personal relationships. That's true in
link |
02:46:59.280
career choice. That's true in making discoveries and so on. If you follow the path of least
link |
02:47:05.920
resistance, you'll find that you're optimizing for short periods of time. Before you know it,
link |
02:47:13.520
you turn around and long periods of time have gone by without you ever really making a difference
link |
02:47:18.800
in the world. When you look at the field that I really love is artificial intelligence. There's
link |
02:47:26.080
not many projects. There's not many little flames of hope that have been carried out for many years,
link |
02:47:33.440
for decades. Psyche represents one of them. That in itself is just a really inspiring thing.
link |
02:47:42.080
I'm deeply grateful that you would be carrying that flame for so many years. I think that's an
link |
02:47:48.080
inspiration to young people. That said, you said life is finite. We talked about mortality as a
link |
02:47:53.440
feature of AGI. Do you think about your own mortality? Are you afraid of death?
link |
02:48:00.160
Sure. I'd be crazy if I weren't. As I get older, I'm now over 70. As I get older,
link |
02:48:08.400
it's more on my mind, especially as acquaintances and friends and especially mentors one by one
link |
02:48:18.000
are dying. I can't avoid thinking about mortality. I think that the good news from the point of you
link |
02:48:26.640
and the rest of the world is that that adds impetus to my need to succeed in a small number
link |
02:48:33.360
of years in the future. You have a deadline. Exactly. I'm not going to have another 37 years
link |
02:48:39.520
to continue working on this. We really do want to make an impact in the world commercially,
link |
02:48:47.760
physically, metaphysically in the next small number of years, two, three, five years,
link |
02:48:53.680
not two, three, five decades anymore. This is really driving me toward this commercialization
link |
02:49:02.640
and increasingly widespread application of psych. Whereas before, I felt that I could just sit back,
link |
02:49:11.520
roll my eyes, wait till the world caught up. Now I don't feel that way anymore. I feel like I need
link |
02:49:17.520
to put in some effort to make the world aware of what we have and what it can do. The good news
link |
02:49:24.320
from your point of view is that that's why I'm sitting here. You're going to be more productive.
link |
02:49:28.400
I love it. If I can help in any way, I would love to. From a programmer perspective,
link |
02:49:37.920
I love, especially these days, just contributing in small and big ways. If there's any open sourcing
link |
02:49:44.800
from an MIT side and the research, I would love to help. But bigger than psych, like I said,
link |
02:49:51.600
it's that little flame that you're carrying of artificial intelligence, the big dream.
link |
02:49:55.440
What do you hope your legacy is?
link |
02:50:02.000
That's a good question. That people think of me as one of the pioneers or inventors of
link |
02:50:13.200
the AI that is ubiquitous and that they take for granted. And so much the way that
link |
02:50:20.320
today, we look back on the pioneers of electricity or the pioneers of similar types of technologies
link |
02:50:30.480
and so on. It's hard to imagine what life would be like if these people hadn't done what they did.
link |
02:50:39.760
So that's one thing that I'd like to be remembered as. Another is that...
link |
02:50:44.800
So the creator, one of the originators of this gigantic knowledge store and acquisition system
link |
02:50:54.240
that is likely to be at the center of whatever this future AI thing will look like.
link |
02:51:00.320
Yes, exactly. And I'd also like to be remembered as someone who wasn't afraid to spend several
link |
02:51:10.080
decades on a project in a time when almost all of the other forces, institutional forces and
link |
02:51:23.280
commercial forces, are incenting people to go for short term rewards.
link |
02:51:29.680
And a lot of people gave up. A lot of people that dreamt the same dream as you gave up.
link |
02:51:36.080
Yes. And you didn't. Yes. I mean, Doug, it's truly an honor. This was a long time coming.
link |
02:51:45.120
A lot of people bring up your work specifically and more broadly, philosophically, of this is the
link |
02:51:53.360
dream of artificial intelligence. This is likely a part of the future. We're so focused on machine
link |
02:51:59.600
learning applications, all that kind of stuff today. But it seems like the ideas that carries
link |
02:52:04.160
forward is something that will be at the center of this problem they're all trying to solve,
link |
02:52:10.960
which is the problem of intelligence, emotional and otherwise. So thank you so much.
link |
02:52:18.160
It's such a huge honor that you would talk to me and spend your valuable time with me today.
link |
02:52:22.960
Thanks for talking. Thanks, Lex. It's been great.
link |
02:52:26.320
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Doug Leonard. To support this podcast,
link |
02:52:30.640
please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you some words from Mark
link |
02:52:36.080
Twain about the nature of truth. If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything.
link |
02:52:43.040
Thank you for listening. I hope to see you next time.