back to index

Robert Crews: Afghanistan, Taliban, Bin Laden, and War in the Middle East | Lex Fridman Podcast #244


small model | large model

link |
00:00:00.000
The following is a conversation with Robert Cruz,
link |
00:00:02.640
a historian at Stanford, specializing in the history
link |
00:00:06.560
of Afghanistan, Russia, and Islam.
link |
00:00:09.800
This is the Lex Friedman podcast.
link |
00:00:12.040
To support it, please check out our sponsors
link |
00:00:14.040
in the description.
link |
00:00:15.240
And now, here's my conversation with Robert Cruz.
link |
00:00:19.880
Was it a mistake for the United States
link |
00:00:22.120
to invade Afghanistan in 2001, 20 years ago?
link |
00:00:25.920
Yes.
link |
00:00:27.440
As simple as yes, why was it a mistake?
link |
00:00:30.440
I'm a historian, so I say this with some humility
link |
00:00:33.680
about what we can know.
link |
00:00:35.080
I think I'd still like to know much more
link |
00:00:36.680
about what was going on in the White House
link |
00:00:39.080
in the hours, days, weeks after 9 11.
link |
00:00:42.200
But I think the George W. Bush administration
link |
00:00:45.320
acted in a state of panic.
link |
00:00:47.000
And I think they wanted to show kind of toughness.
link |
00:00:49.080
They wanted to show some kind of resolve.
link |
00:00:51.880
This was a horrific act that played out
link |
00:00:55.120
on everyone's television screens.
link |
00:00:57.360
And I think it was really fundamentally a crisis
link |
00:01:00.040
of legitimacy within the White House,
link |
00:01:01.640
within the Oval Office.
link |
00:01:02.480
And I think they felt like they had to do something
link |
00:01:05.240
and something dramatic.
link |
00:01:06.680
I think they didn't really think through who they were fighting,
link |
00:01:10.160
who the enemy was, what this geography had to do with 9 11.
link |
00:01:14.720
I think looking back at it, I mean, some of us,
link |
00:01:17.240
not to say I was clairvoyant or could see into the future,
link |
00:01:19.840
but I think many of us were, from that morning,
link |
00:01:22.400
skeptical about the connections that people were drawing
link |
00:01:24.320
between Afghanistan as a state, as a place,
link |
00:01:27.640
and the actions of Al Qaeda in Washington
link |
00:01:30.240
and New York and Pennsylvania.
link |
00:01:33.080
So as you watch the events of 9 11,
link |
00:01:36.000
the things that our leaders were saying
link |
00:01:40.360
in the minutes, hours, days, weeks that followed,
link |
00:01:44.840
maybe you can give a little bit of a timeline
link |
00:01:47.160
of what was being said.
link |
00:01:49.800
When was the actual invasion of Afghanistan?
link |
00:01:52.440
And also, what were your feelings
link |
00:01:55.400
in the minutes, weeks after 9 11?
link |
00:01:59.440
I was in DC.
link |
00:02:00.440
I was on the way to American University,
link |
00:02:04.200
hearing on NPR what happened.
link |
00:02:07.280
And I thought of the American University logo,
link |
00:02:10.600
which is red, white, and blue.
link |
00:02:11.800
It's an eagle.
link |
00:02:13.040
And I thought, Washington is under attack
link |
00:02:15.440
and symbols of American power are under attack.
link |
00:02:18.680
And so I was quite concerned and at the time lived
link |
00:02:22.720
just a few miles from the capital.
link |
00:02:24.800
And so I felt that it was real.
link |
00:02:28.400
So I appreciate the sense of anxiety and fear and panic.
link |
00:02:32.280
And four, two, three years later in DC,
link |
00:02:35.400
we were constantly getting reports, mostly rumors
link |
00:02:38.680
and confirmed about all kinds of attacks
link |
00:02:40.840
that would fall in the city.
link |
00:02:41.680
So I definitely appreciate the sense of being under assault.
link |
00:02:46.240
But in watching television, including Russian television
link |
00:02:48.440
the other day, because I just installed a satellite thing.
link |
00:02:51.240
So I was trying to watch world news
link |
00:02:52.440
and get different points of view.
link |
00:02:53.440
And that was quite useful to have an alternative set of eyes.
link |
00:02:57.360
In Russian?
link |
00:02:58.160
Yeah, in Russian, yeah.
link |
00:02:59.440
OK, so your Russian is good enough
link |
00:03:01.480
to understand Russian television.
link |
00:03:03.160
The news, yeah, the news and the visuals that were coming
link |
00:03:05.600
that were not shown on American television.
link |
00:03:07.600
I don't know how they had it, but they
link |
00:03:08.840
had they were not filtering anything in the way
link |
00:03:11.720
that the major networks and cable television
link |
00:03:14.080
were doing here.
link |
00:03:14.680
So it was a very unvarnished view of the violence
link |
00:03:17.760
of the moment in New York City of people diving
link |
00:03:21.040
from the towers and it was really they didn't hold back
link |
00:03:24.280
on that, which was quite fascinating.
link |
00:03:26.160
I think much of the world saw much more than actually
link |
00:03:28.040
the American public saw.
link |
00:03:29.880
But to your question, amid that feeling of imminent doom,
link |
00:03:33.800
I watched commentators start to talk about al Qaeda
link |
00:03:36.840
and then talk about Afghanistan.
link |
00:03:39.120
And one of the experts was Barnett Rubin, who's at NYU,
link |
00:03:43.720
who's a kind of long, very learned Afghanistan hand.
link |
00:03:48.400
And he's brought on Peter Jennings on ABC News
link |
00:03:50.520
to kind of lay this out for everyone.
link |
00:03:53.760
And I thought he did a fine job.
link |
00:03:55.320
But I think it was formative in submitting the view that somehow
link |
00:03:59.080
al Qaeda was synonymous with this space, Afghanistan.
link |
00:04:02.400
And I think, again, I was no al Qaeda expert then,
link |
00:04:06.240
and I'm not now.
link |
00:04:07.720
But I think my immediate thought went to war
link |
00:04:11.560
and because my background had been with,
link |
00:04:13.760
at that point, mostly,
link |
00:04:14.760
Afghans who had been displaced from decades of war,
link |
00:04:17.720
who might encounter in Uzbekistan, who were refugees
link |
00:04:19.720
and so on.
link |
00:04:20.920
I thought immediately my mind went to the suffering
link |
00:04:24.080
of Afghan people that this war was going to sweep up,
link |
00:04:28.280
of course, the defenseless people
link |
00:04:30.000
who have nothing to do with these politics.
link |
00:04:31.400
So we should give maybe a little bit of context
link |
00:04:33.320
that you can speak to.
link |
00:04:35.240
So assume nobody's an expert in anything.
link |
00:04:38.240
So let's just say you and I are not experts in anything.
link |
00:04:43.320
What, as a historian, were you studying at the time
link |
00:04:46.400
and thinking about, is it the full global history
link |
00:04:52.200
of Afghanistan?
link |
00:04:53.720
Is it the region where you're thinking
link |
00:04:56.440
about the Mujahideen and al Qaeda and Taliban?
link |
00:05:01.760
Were you thinking about the Soviet Union,
link |
00:05:04.200
the proxy war through Afghanistan?
link |
00:05:06.600
Were you thinking about Iraq and oil?
link |
00:05:09.880
What's the full space of things in your heart,
link |
00:05:12.760
in your mind at the time?
link |
00:05:14.160
I mean, just at the moment, of course,
link |
00:05:15.560
that's the sense of the suffering and the tragedy
link |
00:05:19.480
of the moment of the deaths.
link |
00:05:21.400
And that was, I think, I was preoccupied
link |
00:05:23.320
by the violence at the moment.
link |
00:05:26.240
But as the conversation turned to Afghanistan
link |
00:05:28.520
as a kind of theater, to somehow respond to this moment,
link |
00:05:31.280
I think immediately what came to mind was that the little I
link |
00:05:33.760
knew about al Qaeda at the time,
link |
00:05:35.000
that the geography was inaccurate,
link |
00:05:38.160
that this was a global network, a global threat,
link |
00:05:41.360
that this is a kind of a movement that went beyond borders.
link |
00:05:45.280
And I think it felt early on that Afghanistan was
link |
00:05:48.680
going to be used as a scapegoat.
link |
00:05:50.320
And intellectually, at the time, I
link |
00:05:51.720
was teaching at American University.
link |
00:05:53.160
My course is touched on a range of subjects.
link |
00:05:56.360
But I was trying to complete a book on Islam
link |
00:05:59.360
and the Russian Empire, actually.
link |
00:06:01.240
But in doing that research, which took me across Russia,
link |
00:06:04.080
and Central Asia, purely by accident,
link |
00:06:06.560
I had developed an interest in Afghanistan
link |
00:06:08.520
because, again, a series of coincidences,
link |
00:06:12.720
I found myself in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan,
link |
00:06:15.280
without housing, doing an American friend who
link |
00:06:18.120
was like the king of the market in Tashkent.
link |
00:06:20.200
He knew everyone.
link |
00:06:21.440
He run into some Afghan merchants there.
link |
00:06:24.440
They found out I didn't have a place to live.
link |
00:06:26.480
I didn't know where Afghanistan was, honestly.
link |
00:06:28.280
This was 1997.
link |
00:06:29.360
I had a vague idea it was next door.
link |
00:06:30.600
Well, you lived in Uzbekistan?
link |
00:06:32.200
Yeah, in Tashkent, doing decision research.
link |
00:06:34.960
Because it was a hub of the Russian Empire in Central Asia.
link |
00:06:37.880
So just by accident, I ended up with these young Afghans
link |
00:06:40.240
who took me in as roommates.
link |
00:06:42.720
And then I think that the sense of that community
link |
00:06:46.280
shaped my idea of what Afghanistan is.
link |
00:06:48.480
It was my first exposure to them.
link |
00:06:51.160
They were part of a trading diaspora.
link |
00:06:54.840
They had brought matches from Riga, Latvia.
link |
00:06:57.440
They had somehow brought flour and some agricultural products
link |
00:07:01.240
from Egypt.
link |
00:07:02.840
And they were sitting in closed containers in Tashkent
link |
00:07:06.520
waiting for these Pakistani state to permit them to trade.
link |
00:07:09.920
So these guys were mostly hanging out during the day.
link |
00:07:11.920
They would get dressed up.
link |
00:07:12.880
They'd put on suits and ties like you're wearing.
link |
00:07:15.200
They'd polish their shoes.
link |
00:07:16.520
And they would sit around offices, drink tea,
link |
00:07:20.280
sashos.
link |
00:07:21.880
Then they'd feast at lunch.
link |
00:07:23.720
And then at night, we would go out.
link |
00:07:25.160
So part of my research, because I also had a bottleneck
link |
00:07:27.720
at my research, I was going to the state archives in Tashkent.
link |
00:07:31.200
And because of the state of Uzbekistan,
link |
00:07:34.160
that was a very kind of a suspicious thing to do.
link |
00:07:36.520
So it took a while to get in.
link |
00:07:38.160
So I had downtime in Tashkent, just like these guys.
link |
00:07:41.280
So I got to know them pretty well.
link |
00:07:42.800
And it was really just an accidental kind of thing.
link |
00:07:45.880
But grew quite close to them.
link |
00:07:47.600
And I developed an appreciation of, which now I think, again,
link |
00:07:51.520
thinking of the seeds of all this,
link |
00:07:53.240
these people had already lived, young guys in the 20s,
link |
00:07:57.200
they'd already lived in six or seven countries.
link |
00:07:59.880
They all spoke half a dozen languages.
link |
00:08:02.240
One of my best friends there had been a kickboxer
link |
00:08:06.040
and breakdancer trained in Tehran.
link |
00:08:08.240
His father was a theater person in Afghanistan.
link |
00:08:11.240
He told stories of escaping death in Afghanistan
link |
00:08:14.480
during the Civil War, going to Uzbekistan,
link |
00:08:17.000
escaping death there.
link |
00:08:18.840
And these were very real stories.
link |
00:08:21.200
Can you also just briefly mention, geographically speaking,
link |
00:08:25.880
Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
link |
00:08:28.720
you mentioned Iran, who are the neighbors of all of this?
link |
00:08:32.720
What are we supposed to be thinking about for people?
link |
00:08:35.280
I was always terrible at geography and spatial information.
link |
00:08:38.840
So can you lay it out?
link |
00:08:39.960
Yeah, sure, sure.
link |
00:08:41.000
So Tashkent is the capital of Uzbekistan.
link |
00:08:44.360
It was a hub of Russian imperial power in the 19th century.
link |
00:08:49.720
The Russians take the city from a local kind of Muslim dynasty
link |
00:08:53.840
in 1865.
link |
00:08:55.400
It becomes the city, the hub of Soviet power in Central Asia
link |
00:09:00.200
after 1917.
link |
00:09:01.800
It becomes the center of the Soviet Republic of Uzbekistan,
link |
00:09:06.840
which becomes independent finally in 1991
link |
00:09:09.240
when the Soviet Union collapses.
link |
00:09:10.760
So these are all like these republics
link |
00:09:14.440
are the fingertips of Soviet power in Central Asia.
link |
00:09:18.440
That's right.
link |
00:09:19.360
And they've been independent since 1991,
link |
00:09:22.400
but they have struggled to disentangle themselves
link |
00:09:25.600
from Moscow, from one another.
link |
00:09:28.320
And now they face very serious pressure from China
link |
00:09:31.400
to form a kind of periphery of the great machine
link |
00:09:34.920
that is the Chinese economy and its ambitions
link |
00:09:37.760
to stretch across Asia.
link |
00:09:40.920
For Afghanistan, where my roommates, my friends,
link |
00:09:43.720
hailed from Afghanistan had fallen into civil war
link |
00:09:48.720
in the late 1970s when leftists tried to seize power there
link |
00:09:52.600
in 1978.
link |
00:09:54.040
The Soviet Union then extended from Uzbekistan,
link |
00:09:57.600
crossing the border with its forces in 1979
link |
00:10:01.000
to try to shore up this leftist government
link |
00:10:03.200
that had seized power in 1978.
link |
00:10:05.440
And so for Central Asians in the wider region,
link |
00:10:09.320
their fate had for some decades been tied to Afghanistan
link |
00:10:13.320
in a variety of ways,
link |
00:10:14.480
but it became much more connected in 1980s
link |
00:10:17.840
when the Soviet Red Army occupied Afghanistan for 10 years.
link |
00:10:23.320
And here, I refer your listeners and viewers to Rambo 3
link |
00:10:26.920
as the guide to...
link |
00:10:28.640
The historically accurate guide.
link |
00:10:30.120
The historically accurate, the Bible of Afghan history
link |
00:10:33.240
in Rambo 3, as a fantastic window onto the American view
link |
00:10:37.920
of the war, right?
link |
00:10:39.360
But for most Afghans, there are people who fought
link |
00:10:41.760
against the Soviet army, but of a certain generation,
link |
00:10:45.640
the guys I knew, their mission was to survive.
link |
00:10:50.880
And so they fled in waves by the millions to Pakistan,
link |
00:10:55.640
to Iran, some went north into Central Asia later in the 1990s,
link |
00:10:59.640
and some were displaced across the planet.
link |
00:11:02.240
So California, where we're sitting today,
link |
00:11:04.000
has a large community that came in the 80s and 90s
link |
00:11:07.960
in the East Bay.
link |
00:11:09.720
Can I ask a quick question that's a little bit of a tangent?
link |
00:11:12.720
Yep.
link |
00:11:13.960
What is the correct or the respectful way to pronounce
link |
00:11:19.480
Afghanistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iran?
link |
00:11:25.880
So as a Russian speaker, Afghanistan,
link |
00:11:30.080
the on versus the and, is it different country by country?
link |
00:11:34.760
As an English speaker in America,
link |
00:11:37.200
is it pretentious and disrespectful to say Afghanistan,
link |
00:11:41.400
or is it the opposite of respectful to say it that way?
link |
00:11:44.440
What are your thoughts on that?
link |
00:11:45.440
That's a fascinating question.
link |
00:11:47.240
I defer to the people from those countries
link |
00:11:50.200
to of course sort out those politics.
link |
00:11:52.600
I think one of the fascinating things about the region broadly
link |
00:11:55.440
is that it is a place of so many cultures
link |
00:11:57.080
and it's really quite cosmopolitan.
link |
00:12:00.040
So I think people are mostly quite forgiving
link |
00:12:02.000
about how you say Afghanistan, Afghanistan.
link |
00:12:04.480
It's not like Paris.
link |
00:12:05.840
Yeah, right, right.
link |
00:12:06.680
The French are not forgiving.
link |
00:12:07.880
No, no, no, exactly.
link |
00:12:09.080
I think people are very forgiving.
link |
00:12:10.680
And I think that Iranians are a bit more instructive
link |
00:12:16.480
and suggesting Iran rather than Iran, right?
link |
00:12:20.080
Iraq, Iraq, I think there's come to be a fit
link |
00:12:25.080
between certain ways of pronouncing these places
link |
00:12:27.480
and the position that Americans take about them, right?
link |
00:12:31.000
So it's more jarring when people say Iraq
link |
00:12:36.280
and it comes with a claim
link |
00:12:39.240
that a certain kind of person should be the victim
link |
00:12:42.120
of violence or, right, so does that, yeah.
link |
00:12:44.600
It's kind of like talking about the Democratic Party
link |
00:12:47.040
or the Democrat Party.
link |
00:12:48.440
It's sometimes using certain kind of terminology
link |
00:12:51.720
to make a little bit of a sort of implied statement
link |
00:12:57.720
about your beliefs.
link |
00:12:58.680
That's fascinating.
link |
00:12:59.520
Yeah, I mean, I think when I hear Iraq and Iran,
link |
00:13:02.640
I mean, I think it, yeah, is it intentional
link |
00:13:04.840
in the case of a Democrat or is it just a,
link |
00:13:07.240
and it's a whatever.
link |
00:13:08.080
Again, I think most Iranians and Afghans,
link |
00:13:09.960
people I know have been very cool about that.
link |
00:13:12.880
What annoys Afghans now, I can say, I think it's great to say,
link |
00:13:16.080
I don't mean to speak for mainstay group people,
link |
00:13:20.080
but I can just share with our non Afghan friends.
link |
00:13:24.360
The term Afghani is a kind of term of offense
link |
00:13:28.600
because that's the name of the currency.
link |
00:13:29.880
And so lots of people ask, you know, why having,
link |
00:13:34.360
especially again, it's more directed at Americans
link |
00:13:36.560
because, you know, we've been so deeply involved
link |
00:13:38.400
in that country, obviously for the last 20 years, right?
link |
00:13:40.920
So Afghans ask why after 20 years,
link |
00:13:43.360
are you still calling us the wrong name?
link |
00:13:45.320
What is the right name?
link |
00:13:46.560
Just, they prefer Afghans.
link |
00:13:48.440
Afghans.
link |
00:13:49.280
Yeah, and Afghani is the name of the currency.
link |
00:13:52.160
And so.
link |
00:13:53.000
I just dodged the bullet
link |
00:13:54.000
because I was gonna say Afghans.
link |
00:13:54.840
That's cool.
link |
00:13:55.680
Yeah, I hear you.
link |
00:13:56.520
That's really great to know.
link |
00:13:57.360
Yeah, and it's, again, I think,
link |
00:13:59.360
but I would emphasize that people are quite open
link |
00:14:01.760
and you know, it's a whole region of incredible diversity
link |
00:14:06.160
and respect for linguistic pluralism actually.
link |
00:14:09.800
So I think that, you know,
link |
00:14:11.200
but I also appreciate that in this context,
link |
00:14:14.240
when there's a lot of pain, you know,
link |
00:14:16.160
in the Afghan diaspora community in particular,
link |
00:14:18.840
you know, being called the wrong name after 20 years
link |
00:14:22.000
when they already feel so betrayed at this moment,
link |
00:14:24.800
you know, just kind of,
link |
00:14:25.760
if one follows us on social media,
link |
00:14:27.960
that is one kind of hot wire, right?
link |
00:14:32.160
Yeah, so the reason I ask about pronunciation
link |
00:14:35.400
is because, yes, it is true
link |
00:14:37.360
that there are certain things where mispronounced
link |
00:14:39.880
kind of reveal that you don't care enough
link |
00:14:42.800
to pronounce correctly.
link |
00:14:44.360
You don't know enough to pronounce correctly.
link |
00:14:47.040
And you dismiss the culture and the people,
link |
00:14:49.760
which I think as per your writing is something that,
link |
00:14:54.960
if it's okay, I'll go with Afghanistan.
link |
00:14:57.160
Just because I'm used to it.
link |
00:14:58.440
I say Iraq, Iran, but I say Afghanistan.
link |
00:15:01.520
Yeah, it's great.
link |
00:15:02.840
As you do in your writing, Afghanistan suffers
link |
00:15:06.040
from much misunderstanding from the rest of the world.
link |
00:15:08.600
But back to our discussion of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
link |
00:15:13.760
the whole region that gives us context
link |
00:15:17.560
for the events of 9 11.
link |
00:15:18.880
Right, right.
link |
00:15:20.280
So yeah, if we get back to that day,
link |
00:15:21.560
in the weeks that followed,
link |
00:15:23.880
in my mind went to the community I knew in Tashkent,
link |
00:15:28.000
which was interesting.
link |
00:15:28.840
I mean, they were,
link |
00:15:29.800
so Islam was the focal point of our conversation in the US
link |
00:15:33.080
about 9 11, right?
link |
00:15:34.040
Everyone to know what was the relationship
link |
00:15:36.240
between the terrific violence and that religious tradition
link |
00:15:39.840
with its 1 billion plus followers across the globe, right?
link |
00:15:45.160
That became the issue of course
link |
00:15:47.000
for American security institutions,
link |
00:15:49.400
for local state and police institutions, right?
link |
00:15:53.440
I mean, it became the,
link |
00:15:54.320
I think it was the question
link |
00:15:55.560
that most Americans had on their minds.
link |
00:15:56.680
So again, I didn't imagine myself
link |
00:15:59.160
as someone who had all the answers, of course,
link |
00:16:00.880
but given my background in coming at this
link |
00:16:03.680
from Russian history,
link |
00:16:04.600
coming at this from studying empire
link |
00:16:06.880
and trying to think about the region broadly.
link |
00:16:09.880
You know, I was very alarmed
link |
00:16:10.760
at the way that the conversation went.
link |
00:16:12.880
Can I ask you a question?
link |
00:16:13.920
What was your feeling on that morning of 9 11?
link |
00:16:19.160
Who did this?
link |
00:16:20.280
Isn't that a natural feeling?
link |
00:16:21.840
There's a, it's coupled with fear of what's next,
link |
00:16:25.680
especially when you're in DC.
link |
00:16:27.160
But also who is this? Is this an accident?
link |
00:16:30.280
Is this a deliberate terrorist attack?
link |
00:16:32.040
Is this domestic?
link |
00:16:34.960
What were your thoughts of the options
link |
00:16:37.440
and the internal ranking given here by expertise?
link |
00:16:41.040
I mean, I suppose I was taken by the narrative
link |
00:16:44.040
that this was international.
link |
00:16:46.400
I mean, I'd also lived in New York
link |
00:16:47.920
during one of the first bombings in 94
link |
00:16:50.760
of the World Trade Center.
link |
00:16:52.240
So it was clear to me that a radical community
link |
00:16:53.920
had really fixed New York as part of their imagination of,
link |
00:16:58.240
and I immediately thought it was a,
link |
00:16:59.920
it was a kind of blow to American power.
link |
00:17:04.320
And, you know, I was drawn by the symbolism of it.
link |
00:17:08.680
You know, if you think of it as an act,
link |
00:17:09.680
it was a kind of an act of speech,
link |
00:17:12.640
if you will, kind of a way of speaking to,
link |
00:17:16.840
from a position of relative weakness,
link |
00:17:18.520
speaking to an imperial power.
link |
00:17:21.440
And that I saw, I saw it as a kind of symbolic,
link |
00:17:24.160
you know, speech act of that with horrific,
link |
00:17:26.560
you know, real world consequences for all those innocent victims
link |
00:17:30.920
for the fire and for the police
link |
00:17:32.000
and just the, you know, the horror of the moment.
link |
00:17:35.600
So I did see it as transcending the United States,
link |
00:17:39.640
but I did not see it as really having anything
link |
00:17:41.880
necessarily to do fundamentally about Afghanistan
link |
00:17:45.360
and the history of the region that I'd been studying
link |
00:17:48.000
and the community people that I knew
link |
00:17:49.760
who were not particularly religious, right?
link |
00:17:51.880
The guys I hung out with actually wore me out
link |
00:17:54.200
because they wanted to go out every night.
link |
00:17:56.120
They wanted to party every night.
link |
00:17:57.640
We had. Drinking?
link |
00:17:58.480
Yeah.
link |
00:17:59.320
We had discussions about alcohol.
link |
00:18:00.560
I mean, Uzbekistan is famous for its.
link |
00:18:02.640
Drinking. It's drinking.
link |
00:18:04.240
You know, it's.
link |
00:18:05.080
That's something to look forward to.
link |
00:18:05.920
So I do want to travel to that part of the world.
link |
00:18:08.440
When was the last time you were in that part of the world?
link |
00:18:11.440
Early 2000s.
link |
00:18:12.680
Well, then mid 2000s, 2010s.
link |
00:18:14.880
So wait, so by the way, we're drinking vodka.
link |
00:18:17.480
What's the, what's the weapon of choice?
link |
00:18:20.880
Uzbekistan has a cooperative vodka as the choice.
link |
00:18:26.200
And it informs, you know, and it's,
link |
00:18:28.240
but the fascinating thing, you know,
link |
00:18:29.520
and as a student is what you're observing as a non Muslim,
link |
00:18:32.480
you know, I'm a non Russian.
link |
00:18:34.160
I'm this is all, you know, culturally new to me.
link |
00:18:38.800
And I'm, you know, a student of all that, right?
link |
00:18:40.760
So I got a student doing my work there.
link |
00:18:42.480
So you're like Jane Goodall of vodka in Russia.
link |
00:18:45.280
That's right. Just observing.
link |
00:18:46.480
That's right. Yeah. Yeah.
link |
00:18:47.320
And then you get the, you get the some of gone,
link |
00:18:50.440
the grass vodka, you get, you know,
link |
00:18:52.040
I have, I've had some long nights
link |
00:18:54.280
on the Kazakhstan frontier that I'm not proud of, you know,
link |
00:19:00.160
but you got to know the people
link |
00:19:01.560
and some of them from, yeah, yeah.
link |
00:19:03.760
But intellectually, so the thing,
link |
00:19:04.960
I mean, the, the, the fascinating thing there was it,
link |
00:19:06.760
and just as a, I mean, there's a whole,
link |
00:19:09.240
yeah, I'm destroying, right?
link |
00:19:10.080
But there are great contributions by, you know,
link |
00:19:14.440
anthropologists and ethnographers who,
link |
00:19:15.920
who've gone across the planet and tried to understand
link |
00:19:17.800
how Muslims understand the tradition at different contexts.
link |
00:19:21.600
So many usbecks will say, you know,
link |
00:19:25.680
this is part of our national culture
link |
00:19:27.200
to drink and eat as we please, right?
link |
00:19:29.760
And yet I'm a very devout Muslim.
link |
00:19:31.600
And so of course you can encounter other Muslim communities
link |
00:19:34.920
who won't touch alcohol, right?
link |
00:19:37.400
But it's become kind of, I think it's very much, you know,
link |
00:19:40.320
Soviet culture left a deep impression
link |
00:19:42.360
in each of these places.
link |
00:19:43.200
And so there are ways of thinking, ways of performing,
link |
00:19:47.400
ways of, you know, enjoying oneself
link |
00:19:49.720
that are shared across Soviet and former Soviet space
link |
00:19:53.320
to this day, right?
link |
00:19:54.640
And you've written also about Muslims in the Soviet Union.
link |
00:19:57.800
That's right.
link |
00:19:59.120
The, there's an article that there's a paywall
link |
00:20:02.320
so I couldn't read it and I really want to read it.
link |
00:20:04.920
Is a Moscow in the mosque or something like that.
link |
00:20:09.920
Right, right.
link |
00:20:11.840
By the way, just another tangent, not a tangent.
link |
00:20:14.280
Yeah.
link |
00:20:15.120
So I bought all your books, I love them very much.
link |
00:20:17.280
Thank you, thank you.
link |
00:20:18.120
One of the reasons I bought them
link |
00:20:20.040
and read many parts is because they're easy to buy.
link |
00:20:24.320
Unlike articles, every single website has a paywall.
link |
00:20:27.960
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
link |
00:20:28.800
So it's very, very frustrating to read brilliant scholars
link |
00:20:32.720
such as yourself.
link |
00:20:33.560
No, no, no.
link |
00:20:35.320
I wish there was one fee I could pay everywhere.
link |
00:20:37.520
I don't care what that fee is,
link |
00:20:38.840
it just allows me to read some of your brilliant writing.
link |
00:20:42.200
No, no, thank you, I hear you.
link |
00:20:43.040
No, I think moving toward more kind of open source,
link |
00:20:47.280
formatting stuff, I think is what a lot of journals
link |
00:20:49.120
are thinking about now.
link |
00:20:50.000
And I think it's definitely for the kind of
link |
00:20:52.600
democratization of knowledge and scholarship.
link |
00:20:54.520
That's definitely an important thing
link |
00:20:55.920
that we should all think about.
link |
00:20:56.880
And I think, you know, we need to exert pressure
link |
00:21:00.360
on these publishers to do that.
link |
00:21:01.960
So I appreciate that.
link |
00:21:02.800
This is what I'm doing here.
link |
00:21:03.840
Yeah, yeah, good, good.
link |
00:21:04.680
No, I appreciate it.
link |
00:21:05.520
So your thought was Afghanistan is not,
link |
00:21:10.520
it's not going to be the center, the source of where.
link |
00:21:14.520
Exactly, it's not the center of this.
link |
00:21:16.040
And if that country isn't going to fix,
link |
00:21:18.120
isn't going to fix the, you know,
link |
00:21:20.600
toxic malformal politics that produced 9.11, right?
link |
00:21:25.200
I think it's thinking of some of the personalities
link |
00:21:26.520
just thinking about going back to the Tashkin story
link |
00:21:28.840
which I'll end with.
link |
00:21:29.800
I mean, just observing, you know,
link |
00:21:31.760
real Muslims doing things and then asking questions
link |
00:21:35.120
about it and trying to understand through their eyes
link |
00:21:39.040
what the tradition means to them.
link |
00:21:40.960
And then, you know, you have a,
link |
00:21:42.040
we had a very narrow conversation
link |
00:21:43.720
about what Islam is that, you know,
link |
00:21:46.160
generated immediately exploded in, you know,
link |
00:21:48.360
on the day of 9.11, right?
link |
00:21:50.160
And then of course, I think the antipathy
link |
00:21:53.120
toward Islam and Muslims, you know,
link |
00:21:55.400
was informed by racism, informed by xenophobia.
link |
00:21:59.960
So it became a perfect storm.
link |
00:22:01.120
I think of demonization that didn't sit with, you know,
link |
00:22:04.960
what I knew about the tradition
link |
00:22:06.200
and with the actual people that I had known
link |
00:22:08.400
because then going back to,
link |
00:22:09.240
I mean, they're other friends and encounters and so on,
link |
00:22:11.880
but just thinking about Afghanistan and Tashkin for a moment.
link |
00:22:14.440
I mean, just that thought about my friends
link |
00:22:17.480
who had been, who had suffered a great deal
link |
00:22:19.360
in their short lives, who had been, you know,
link |
00:22:21.880
cast aside from country to country,
link |
00:22:24.720
but had found a place in Tashkin
link |
00:22:26.720
with some relative stability.
link |
00:22:28.720
And, you know, they wanted to go out every night
link |
00:22:31.080
and, you know, they explained, you know,
link |
00:22:32.960
one friend, we talked about it with the alcohol
link |
00:22:34.840
and he didn't get crazy, but he was like,
link |
00:22:37.320
you can drink, but just don't get drunk.
link |
00:22:38.920
That's permissible within Islam, right?
link |
00:22:42.760
And he was, you know, ethnic Pashtun.
link |
00:22:45.000
I think Uzbeks had a different view, you know,
link |
00:22:47.680
often the more vodka, the better, you know?
link |
00:22:49.880
And it doesn't violate, as I understand Islam.
link |
00:22:51.880
So even, you know, it's kind of a silly example,
link |
00:22:54.120
but it's just an illustration of the ways in which
link |
00:22:56.200
different communities, different generations,
link |
00:22:58.040
different people can come at this very complex tradition
link |
00:23:01.560
in so many different ways.
link |
00:23:02.520
So obviously, if whatever kind of scholar you are,
link |
00:23:06.160
or any kind of expert, whatever, you know,
link |
00:23:08.240
it's always disconcerting to see your field of specialization
link |
00:23:12.120
be flattened, right?
link |
00:23:13.720
And then be flattened and then be turned to
link |
00:23:16.480
arguments for violence, right?
link |
00:23:18.400
Mixed up with natural human feelings of hate.
link |
00:23:22.200
Yeah.
link |
00:23:23.040
And, and hurt, and pain.
link |
00:23:25.400
So I, you know, I mean, that day I vividly remember
link |
00:23:28.000
I sat with other PhD historians in different fields.
link |
00:23:32.720
We, you know, we oddly enough had lunch that day
link |
00:23:35.640
and it kind of deserted Washington.
link |
00:23:37.240
Some place was open when we went.
link |
00:23:39.680
And we just thought, you know, this is going to kind of
link |
00:23:41.880
open up like a great maw of destruction.
link |
00:23:45.720
And, you know, the American state is going to destroy
link |
00:23:50.920
and it's going to destroy in this geography.
link |
00:23:53.720
And I thought that was misplaced for lots of reasons.
link |
00:23:56.480
And then I think if when, you know,
link |
00:23:59.120
I'd been doing some research on Afghanistan then
link |
00:24:02.480
I was kind of shifting to the South.
link |
00:24:03.560
And I'd been looking at the Taliban from afar for some years.
link |
00:24:08.600
And, you know, I think it's clear now that in retrospect
link |
00:24:12.440
there were opportunities for alternative policies
link |
00:24:15.280
at that moment.
link |
00:24:16.520
So what should the conversation have been like?
link |
00:24:20.840
What should we have done differently?
link |
00:24:23.320
Because, you know, from a perspective of the time
link |
00:24:28.480
the United States was invaded by a foreign force.
link |
00:24:33.360
What is the proper response?
link |
00:24:35.040
Or what is the proper conversation
link |
00:24:36.680
about the proper response at the time, you think?
link |
00:24:39.000
You know, I know my colleague at Sanford,
link |
00:24:41.240
Connolly Saris would tell me this is above my pay grade.
link |
00:24:44.520
And, you know, she makes a point in her classes
link |
00:24:46.560
to talk about how difficult decision making is
link |
00:24:50.160
under such intense pressure.
link |
00:24:52.120
And I appreciate that.
link |
00:24:53.840
You know, I am an historian who sits safely in my office.
link |
00:24:57.320
I don't like battlefields.
link |
00:24:58.640
I don't like taking risks.
link |
00:25:01.400
So I can see all those limits.
link |
00:25:02.920
You know, I'm not a military expert.
link |
00:25:05.200
I've been accused of being a spy wherever I've gone
link |
00:25:07.120
because of the way I look and because of my nationality
link |
00:25:08.640
and so on, but I'm not a spy.
link |
00:25:10.240
So I defer, you know, I respect the expertise
link |
00:25:12.440
of all those communities.
link |
00:25:13.640
But I think they acted out of ignorance.
link |
00:25:16.920
They acted, I think, because, I mean, you think of the,
link |
00:25:19.600
in a way, there was a compensatory aspect
link |
00:25:22.760
of this decision making.
link |
00:25:23.800
I mean, the Bush administration failed.
link |
00:25:27.520
This is an extraordinary failure, right?
link |
00:25:29.520
So if we start...
link |
00:25:30.360
In which way?
link |
00:25:31.200
If we're going to break down the...
link |
00:25:32.040
A failure of intelligence.
link |
00:25:32.880
I mean, if you follow the story of Richard Clark...
link |
00:25:36.720
Who's Richard Clark?
link |
00:25:37.720
He was a national security expert
link |
00:25:40.720
who was tasked with following Al Qaeda.
link |
00:25:43.320
Who had produced a dossier under the Clinton administration
link |
00:25:47.160
that he passed on to the George W. Bush administration.
link |
00:25:50.600
And if you look at the work of Conleysa Rice,
link |
00:25:53.320
she wrote a very famous, I think, unpaywalled
link |
00:25:56.640
foreign affairs article that you can read,
link |
00:25:58.600
announcing the George W. Bush foreign policy kind of outlook.
link |
00:26:02.720
And it was all about great powers,
link |
00:26:05.160
is about the rise of China, is about Russia.
link |
00:26:07.440
I mean, there's definitely a kind of hangover
link |
00:26:10.840
of those who missed having Russia as the boogeyman
link |
00:26:15.880
who spoke...
link |
00:26:16.880
The Clinton administration repeated again and again
link |
00:26:18.320
the idea of making sure the bear stayed in his cage,
link |
00:26:22.760
which is why the United States threw a lifeline
link |
00:26:26.440
to the Central Asian states, hoping to have pipelines,
link |
00:26:31.000
hoping to shore up their national sovereignty
link |
00:26:34.480
as a way of containing Russia initially,
link |
00:26:38.120
but also Iran, which sits to the south and west,
link |
00:26:42.080
and then peripherally looking down the road
link |
00:26:43.720
to China, to the east.
link |
00:26:45.560
So the bear is what, like Russia?
link |
00:26:50.160
Or is it kind of like some weird combination
link |
00:26:53.080
of Russia, Iran, and China?
link |
00:26:55.000
The bear is Russia, and Russia is this...
link |
00:26:59.800
I'm trying to characterize the imagination
link |
00:27:01.680
of some of these national security figures.
link |
00:27:04.840
This is an image formed in the Cold War.
link |
00:27:07.160
I mean, it has deeper seeds in European
link |
00:27:09.400
and Western intellectual thought that go back,
link |
00:27:12.080
at least to the 1850s and the reign of Tsar Nicholas I.
link |
00:27:17.480
When we first get this language about the Russian Empire,
link |
00:27:21.040
is this kind of evil polity.
link |
00:27:24.840
Obviously, this was a kind of pillar of Reaganism,
link |
00:27:28.880
but the Clinton folks kept that alive.
link |
00:27:30.880
They wanted to make sure that American power would be unmatched,
link |
00:27:36.000
and they, being creatures of the Cold War themselves,
link |
00:27:39.320
they looked to Russia as a recession power
link |
00:27:42.760
well before Putin was even thought of.
link |
00:27:45.480
Yeah, I mean, you mentioned one deep,
link |
00:27:49.320
profound historical piece in Rambo.
link |
00:27:52.040
This probably, this conflict has to do
link |
00:27:55.560
with another Celestino movie, Iraqi Four,
link |
00:27:58.560
which is also historically accurate and based on...
link |
00:28:01.960
It's basically a documentary.
link |
00:28:03.440
So there is something about the American power,
link |
00:28:07.360
even at the level of Condoleezza Rice,
link |
00:28:10.040
these respected, deep kind of leaders and thinkers
link |
00:28:15.640
about history in the future,
link |
00:28:17.480
where they like to have competition with other superpowers
link |
00:28:22.080
and almost conjure up superpowers,
link |
00:28:26.440
even when those countries don't maybe, at the time,
link |
00:28:31.160
at least deserve the label of superpower.
link |
00:28:33.400
That's right, that's a great point.
link |
00:28:34.320
Yeah, they're all awesome points.
link |
00:28:35.720
So yeah, I mean, Russia was, I think many,
link |
00:28:38.800
many experts, I mean, my mentor at Princeton,
link |
00:28:41.480
Stephen Cochran, was then writing great things
link |
00:28:44.440
about how, if you look at Russia's economy,
link |
00:28:47.640
the scale of its GDP, its capacity to actually add globally,
link |
00:28:52.160
it's all quite limited.
link |
00:28:54.120
But Condoleezza Rice and the people around her,
link |
00:28:58.320
came into power with George Obi Bush,
link |
00:29:00.040
thinking that the foreign policy challenges of her era
link |
00:29:03.480
would be those of the past, right?
link |
00:29:06.400
Richard Clark and others within the administration
link |
00:29:08.040
warned that, in fact, there is this group
link |
00:29:10.360
that has declared war against the United States,
link |
00:29:12.880
and they are coming for us.
link |
00:29:14.680
The FBI had been following these people around
link |
00:29:17.200
for many months.
link |
00:29:18.040
And so by the time George Obi Bush comes to power,
link |
00:29:21.800
lots of Alcatraz activists, well, not lots,
link |
00:29:23.720
but perhaps a dozen or so,
link |
00:29:26.040
are already training in the United States, right?
link |
00:29:29.800
And what we knew immediately from the biographies
link |
00:29:31.720
of some of the characters of the attackers of 9.11,
link |
00:29:34.360
it was a hot spot for people from across the planet,
link |
00:29:37.080
but most of them were Saudi, right?
link |
00:29:39.280
And that was known very early on,
link |
00:29:41.200
or presumably very early on.
link |
00:29:43.200
So again, if we go back to your big question
link |
00:29:44.480
about the geography, why Afghanistan,
link |
00:29:47.040
it didn't add up, right?
link |
00:29:48.200
It seemed to me that Afghanistan was a kind of soft target.
link |
00:29:51.200
It was a place to have explosions,
link |
00:29:54.080
to seemingly recapture American supremacy.
link |
00:29:58.320
And also, I think in many quarters,
link |
00:30:00.400
there was a deep urge for revenge.
link |
00:30:02.600
And this is a place to have some casualties,
link |
00:30:05.360
have some explosions.
link |
00:30:07.400
And then I think, you know,
link |
00:30:08.520
restore the legitimacy of the Bush administration
link |
00:30:11.280
by showing that we are in charge, we will pay.
link |
00:30:14.000
And I think there was a very old fashioned punitive dimension
link |
00:30:17.400
which rests upon the presumption that
link |
00:30:19.880
if we intimidate these people,
link |
00:30:21.520
they'll know not to try this again, right?
link |
00:30:23.760
All these I would suggest are all misreadings
link |
00:30:25.560
of an organization that was always global.
link |
00:30:28.280
It had no real center.
link |
00:30:29.600
I mean, it called itself the center.
link |
00:30:30.600
It's one way to translate Al Qaeda,
link |
00:30:32.800
but that center was really in the imagination.
link |
00:30:36.760
Bin Laden bounced around from country to country.
link |
00:30:40.080
And crucially, I think a dimension
link |
00:30:42.680
that I don't claim to know anything new about,
link |
00:30:45.120
but has endured as a kind of doubt,
link |
00:30:47.840
is the role of Saudi Arabia and the fact that, you know,
link |
00:30:50.280
the muscle in that operation of 911 was Saudi, right?
link |
00:30:54.920
I mean, this was a Saudi operation with,
link |
00:30:57.400
if one thinks again, just on the basis of nationalities,
link |
00:31:00.280
Saudis, you know, an Egyptian or two, a Lebanese guy,
link |
00:31:04.360
and the Egyptian guy had been studying in Germany.
link |
00:31:08.560
He was an urban planner, right?
link |
00:31:10.880
So if one thinks of the imagination of this, I mean,
link |
00:31:13.520
and if I did, if you look at the kind of typology of
link |
00:31:17.000
the figures who have led this radical movement,
link |
00:31:19.360
I mean, if you think of the global jihadists,
link |
00:31:21.920
they are mostly not religious scholars, right?
link |
00:31:25.400
Bin Laden was not a religious scholar.
link |
00:31:27.640
His training was an engineer, you know,
link |
00:31:29.360
some biographers claim that he was a playboy
link |
00:31:31.080
for much of his youth, but really that these ideas,
link |
00:31:34.640
I think that's probably why they chose the Twin Towers.
link |
00:31:37.560
I mean, this is an imagination fueled by training
link |
00:31:43.120
and engineering, I mean, a lot of the, you know,
link |
00:31:45.640
the sociology, if you do a kind of prospochography
link |
00:31:47.520
of a lot of these leading jihadists,
link |
00:31:50.760
their backgrounds are not in Islamic scholarship,
link |
00:31:53.120
but actually in engineering and kind of practical sciences
link |
00:31:55.760
and professions, medical doctors are among their ranks.
link |
00:32:00.400
And so there's long been a tension between Islamic scholars
link |
00:32:03.040
who devote their whole lives to study of texts
link |
00:32:05.360
and commentary and interpretation.
link |
00:32:08.000
And then what some scholars call kind of new intellectuals,
link |
00:32:10.640
new Muslim authorities,
link |
00:32:12.400
who actually have secular university educations,
link |
00:32:16.080
often in the natural sciences or engineering
link |
00:32:17.840
and technical fields, who then bring that kind of mindset,
link |
00:32:21.440
if you will, to what Muslim scholars call
link |
00:32:25.240
the religious sciences, which are, you know,
link |
00:32:27.960
a field of kind of ambiguity and of gradation
link |
00:32:31.960
and of subtlety and nuance and really of decades of training
link |
00:32:36.520
before one becomes authoritative to speak about issues
link |
00:32:39.840
like whether or not it's legitimate
link |
00:32:41.240
to take someone else's life.
link |
00:32:43.280
Were the relation to Afghanistan, who was bin Laden?
link |
00:32:47.440
Bin Laden was a visitor.
link |
00:32:49.360
If you look at his whole life course,
link |
00:32:53.840
part of it is an enigma still.
link |
00:32:55.800
You know, he is from a Saudi elite family,
link |
00:32:59.920
but a family that kind of has a Yemeni Arabian sea
link |
00:33:03.960
kind of genealogy.
link |
00:33:07.080
So the family has no relationship to Afghanistan
link |
00:33:10.240
past or present, except at some point in 1980s,
link |
00:33:13.560
when he went like thousands of other young Saudis,
link |
00:33:16.960
first to Pakistan, to places like Bashar on the border,
link |
00:33:20.680
where they wanted to aid the jihad in some capacity.
link |
00:33:25.720
And for the most part, the Arabs who went
link |
00:33:29.160
opened up hospitals, some opened up schools.
link |
00:33:32.120
The bin Laden family had long been
link |
00:33:34.960
based in engineering construction.
link |
00:33:37.320
So it's thought that he used some of those skills
link |
00:33:39.400
and resources and connections to build things.
link |
00:33:42.440
You know, we have images of him firing a gun for show,
link |
00:33:47.720
right?
link |
00:33:48.560
It's not clear that he ever actually fired a gun
link |
00:33:50.600
in what we would call combat.
link |
00:33:53.920
Again, I could be corrected by this.
link |
00:33:55.480
And I think, you know, there are competing accounts
link |
00:33:57.800
of who he was.
link |
00:33:58.640
So he's kind of a...
link |
00:34:00.080
I mean, many of these figures who sit at the pinnacle
link |
00:34:01.880
of this world are, you know, fictive heroes
link |
00:34:05.280
that people, you know, map their aspirations onto, right?
link |
00:34:08.400
And so people like Mullah Omar,
link |
00:34:10.400
who was then head of the Taliban, was really seen in public.
link |
00:34:15.920
The current head of the Taliban
link |
00:34:17.680
is almost never seen in public.
link |
00:34:19.440
I mean, this is kind of studied air of mystery
link |
00:34:22.240
that they've cultivated to make themselves available
link |
00:34:25.360
for all kinds of fantasies, right?
link |
00:34:27.720
Do you think he believed, so his religious beliefs,
link |
00:34:33.680
do you think he believed some of the more extreme things
link |
00:34:38.680
that enable him to commit terrorist acts,
link |
00:34:41.840
maybe put another way,
link |
00:34:43.560
what makes a man want to become a terrorist
link |
00:34:46.520
and what aspect of bin Laden made him want to be a terrorist?
link |
00:34:49.760
Right, great.
link |
00:34:52.080
I mean, let me offer some observations.
link |
00:34:53.680
I think, you know, there are others
link |
00:34:55.320
who know more about bin Laden
link |
00:34:56.640
and have far more expertise in al Qaeda.
link |
00:34:59.200
So I'm coming this in an adjacent way,
link |
00:35:03.880
kind of from Afghanistan and from my historical training.
link |
00:35:06.120
So this is my two cents, so, you know, bear with me.
link |
00:35:10.320
I don't have the authoritative account for this, but...
link |
00:35:12.520
Which in itself is fascinating
link |
00:35:13.640
because you're a historian of Afghanistan.
link |
00:35:16.680
And the fact that bin Laden isn't a huge part
link |
00:35:20.760
of your focus of study just means
link |
00:35:23.520
that bin Laden is not a key part of the history of Afghanistan,
link |
00:35:28.280
except that America made him a key part
link |
00:35:30.560
of the history of Afghanistan.
link |
00:35:31.840
I would endorse that, definitely.
link |
00:35:33.320
I mean, you've put it in a very pitty, pitty way.
link |
00:35:36.760
Yeah, so listen, he was an engineer.
link |
00:35:40.080
He was said to be a playboy
link |
00:35:42.120
who spent a lot of cash from his family.
link |
00:35:44.680
You know, like many young Saudis
link |
00:35:46.400
and from some other countries,
link |
00:35:47.800
he was inspired by this idea
link |
00:35:50.120
that there was Jihad in Afghanistan.
link |
00:35:52.320
It was gonna take down one of the two superpowers,
link |
00:35:55.360
the Soviet Union, who, you know,
link |
00:35:58.200
the Red Army did murder hundreds of thousands,
link |
00:36:01.280
perhaps as many as 2 million Afghan civilians
link |
00:36:05.200
during that conflict.
link |
00:36:07.320
It's very plausible and very, you know,
link |
00:36:12.000
completely understandable that many young people
link |
00:36:14.440
would see that cause as, you know,
link |
00:36:18.240
the righteous, pious fighters for Jihad,
link |
00:36:21.400
who call themselves Mujahideen,
link |
00:36:23.440
arrayed against this evil empire, right,
link |
00:36:26.040
of a godless Soviet empire that,
link |
00:36:29.800
I mean, there's even confusion about what the Soviets wanted,
link |
00:36:31.920
right, now we know much more about like
link |
00:36:33.640
what the Kremlin wanted, what Brezhnev wanted,
link |
00:36:36.240
and how the Soviet elite thought about it
link |
00:36:37.560
because we have many more of their records.
link |
00:36:39.200
But from the outside, you know, for Jimmy Carter
link |
00:36:42.000
and then for Reagan, it looked like the Soviets
link |
00:36:44.680
were making a move on South Asia
link |
00:36:47.880
because they wanted to get to the warm water ports,
link |
00:36:50.760
you know, which Russians always want supposedly, right?
link |
00:36:52.640
And it was kind of a move to take over our oil
link |
00:36:56.120
and, you know, to assert world domination, right?
link |
00:36:58.760
So there are lots of ways in which this looked like
link |
00:37:01.520
good receivable in Congress.
link |
00:37:03.320
It looked like, you know, kind of Vietnam again,
link |
00:37:06.920
but this time, this is our chance to get them.
link |
00:37:08.960
And there are lots of great quotes, I mean, disturbing,
link |
00:37:12.320
but really revealing quotes that American policy makers
link |
00:37:15.360
made about wanting to give the Soviets their Vietnam.
link |
00:37:19.000
So the CIA funneled, you know,
link |
00:37:22.600
hundreds of millions of dollars into this project
link |
00:37:24.080
to back the Mujahideen, you know,
link |
00:37:25.680
who Reagan called freedom fighters.
link |
00:37:27.600
And so, Bin Laden was part of that universe.
link |
00:37:29.480
He's part of that, you know, he's swimming in the ocean
link |
00:37:31.040
of these Afghans Mujahideen who out of size, you know,
link |
00:37:34.640
did 95% of the fighting.
link |
00:37:36.760
They're the ones who died.
link |
00:37:37.760
They're the ones who defeated the Red Army, right?
link |
00:37:40.520
The Arabs who were there did a little fighting,
link |
00:37:43.120
but a lot of it was for, you know, their purposes.
link |
00:37:45.760
It was to get experience.
link |
00:37:47.080
It was to kind of create their reputations
link |
00:37:50.240
like Bin Laden began to force for himself
link |
00:37:52.600
of being spokesman for a global project.
link |
00:37:55.240
Because by the late 80s, when Bin Laden, you know,
link |
00:37:57.880
I think was more active and began conspiring
link |
00:38:00.520
with people from other Arab countries,
link |
00:38:02.800
the idea that, you know, Gorbachev became a power in 85.
link |
00:38:06.000
He's like, let's get out of here.
link |
00:38:07.080
This is draining the Soviet budget.
link |
00:38:09.360
It's an embarrassment.
link |
00:38:11.480
We didn't think about this properly.
link |
00:38:13.200
Let's focus on restoring the party
link |
00:38:17.240
and strengthening the Soviet Union.
link |
00:38:19.280
Let's get out of this costly war.
link |
00:38:20.640
You know, it's a waste.
link |
00:38:22.560
It's not worth it.
link |
00:38:23.760
We're even losing anything by getting out of Afghanistan.
link |
00:38:26.880
And so their retreat was quite effective and successful
link |
00:38:31.880
from the Soviet point of view, right?
link |
00:38:33.120
It's not what we're seeing now.
link |
00:38:35.160
What year was the retreat?
link |
00:38:37.320
I mean, it began, Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in 1985.
link |
00:38:41.720
You know, he was a generation younger than the other guys.
link |
00:38:44.560
He was a critic of the system.
link |
00:38:46.280
He didn't want to abolish it.
link |
00:38:47.120
He wanted to reform it.
link |
00:38:48.560
He was a true believer in Soviet socialism
link |
00:38:51.360
and in the party as a, you know, a monopolist, right?
link |
00:38:56.760
But he was critical of the old guard
link |
00:38:58.040
and recognized that the party had a change
link |
00:39:00.920
and the whole system had a change to continue to compete.
link |
00:39:04.640
And so Afghanistan was one element of this.
link |
00:39:07.440
And so he pushed the Afghan elites
link |
00:39:11.440
that Moscow was backing to basically say,
link |
00:39:14.320
listen, we're gonna share power.
link |
00:39:16.320
And so a figure named Najibullah,
link |
00:39:19.640
who was a Soviet trained intelligence specialist
link |
00:39:23.280
sitting in Kabul, agreed.
link |
00:39:26.400
And he said, we need to have a more kind of pluralistic
link |
00:39:30.280
accommodations approach to our enemies
link |
00:39:33.200
who are backed by the US mainly, sitting in Pakistan,
link |
00:39:37.400
sitting in Iran, backed by his Arabs to agree,
link |
00:39:40.560
getting money from Saudi.
link |
00:39:42.320
And he said, let's draw some of them into the government
link |
00:39:45.120
and basically have a kind of unity government
link |
00:39:48.440
that would make some space the opposition.
link |
00:39:50.800
And for the most part, with US backing,
link |
00:39:53.320
with Pakistani backing, with Iranian backing
link |
00:39:56.000
and with Saudi backing, the opposition said, no,
link |
00:39:58.520
we're not going to reconcile.
link |
00:40:00.640
We're gonna push you off the cliff.
link |
00:40:02.640
And so that story goes on from at least 1987,
link |
00:40:06.640
the last Soviet Red Army troops leave early 1989.
link |
00:40:11.160
But the Najibullah government holds on for three more years.
link |
00:40:15.200
It is the, I mean, they're still getting some help from the Soviet Union.
link |
00:40:18.720
Its enemies are still getting help from the US mainly.
link |
00:40:21.640
And it's not until 1992 that they lose.
link |
00:40:27.160
And then Mujahideen come into power.
link |
00:40:29.520
They immediately, they're deeply fractured.
link |
00:40:33.040
And that's where bin Laden is watching all of this unroll.
link |
00:40:35.880
That's right.
link |
00:40:36.720
And he's part of the mix, but he's also mobile.
link |
00:40:37.840
So he at one point goes, is in Sudan.
link |
00:40:42.240
He's moving from place to place.
link |
00:40:44.040
His people are all over the world.
link |
00:40:45.200
In fact, they, I mean, if you think of the,
link |
00:40:48.160
once the Mujahideen take power,
link |
00:40:50.160
you know, they have difficulties with Arab fighters too.
link |
00:40:52.080
And they don't want them coming in and, you know,
link |
00:40:53.840
messing with Mujahideen regard this as like, you know,
link |
00:40:57.120
this is an Afghan national state that we're going to build.
link |
00:40:59.320
It's going to be Islamic.
link |
00:41:00.160
It's going to be an Islamic state,
link |
00:41:01.600
but you can't interfere with us.
link |
00:41:03.720
And so they're always tensions.
link |
00:41:05.640
And so the Arabs are always kind of, I would say they were,
link |
00:41:08.400
Arab fighters were always interlopers.
link |
00:41:11.280
Yes, the Africans are happy to take their money,
link |
00:41:13.840
send patients to their hospitals, take their weapons,
link |
00:41:17.440
but they were never going to let this be like a Saudi
link |
00:41:20.720
or Egyptian or whatever project.
link |
00:41:23.760
But then many of those fighters went home.
link |
00:41:26.320
They went back to Syria.
link |
00:41:27.440
They went back to Egypt.
link |
00:41:29.160
Some wanted to go back to the Saudi Arabia,
link |
00:41:30.600
but the Saudis were very careful.
link |
00:41:31.640
I mean, the Saudis always used Afghanistan
link |
00:41:33.200
as a kind of safety valve.
link |
00:41:34.880
In fact, they had, you know, fundraisers on television.
link |
00:41:37.160
They chartered jets.
link |
00:41:38.400
They filled them with people to fly to Pakistan,
link |
00:41:41.360
get out and push our and say, you know, go fight.
link |
00:41:44.320
And it was one way that the monarchy, the Saudi monarchy,
link |
00:41:48.960
very cleverly, I think,
link |
00:41:50.120
created a kind of escape valve
link |
00:41:52.640
for would be dissidents in Saudi Arabia, right?
link |
00:41:55.440
Just send them abroad.
link |
00:41:56.880
You want to fight Jihad.
link |
00:41:58.280
Go do that somewhere else.
link |
00:41:59.120
Don't, don't bother the kingdom.
link |
00:42:01.280
But all this became dicier in the early nineties
link |
00:42:04.400
when some of these guys came back home
link |
00:42:06.280
and some of the scholars around them said, you know,
link |
00:42:08.320
let's we've defeated the Soviet Union,
link |
00:42:10.160
which is a huge, huge boost.
link |
00:42:11.240
And I think part of the dynamic we see today
link |
00:42:12.840
is that the Taliban victory is a renewed inspiration
link |
00:42:17.400
for people who think, look, we beat the Soviets,
link |
00:42:20.280
now we beat the Americans.
link |
00:42:21.960
And so already watching the Soviet retreat
link |
00:42:24.600
across this bridge, back into Uzbekistan,
link |
00:42:26.960
if you see these dramatic images of the tanks, you know,
link |
00:42:29.160
moving, a lot of people interpreted this as like,
link |
00:42:31.760
you know, we are going to change the world.
link |
00:42:34.680
And now we're turning to the Americans.
link |
00:42:36.560
And our local national governments
link |
00:42:38.240
are backed by the Americans.
link |
00:42:39.800
So let's start with those places.
link |
00:42:42.040
And then let's go strike, let's go strike, you know,
link |
00:42:44.160
the belly of the beast, which is America, which is New York.
link |
00:42:47.320
And going back to Milan, your question about, you know,
link |
00:42:48.800
what motivates him, what motivated him, you know, again,
link |
00:42:52.560
he was not a rigorously trained Islamic scholar.
link |
00:42:57.360
And that I think, you know, when this comes up in our classes,
link |
00:43:00.440
you know, I think, especially young people,
link |
00:43:01.960
I mean, people who aren't even born when I live,
link |
00:43:03.160
I mean, they're shocked.
link |
00:43:04.000
They see, they see his appearance.
link |
00:43:05.440
They see him pictured in front of a giant bookshelf
link |
00:43:10.640
of Arabic books.
link |
00:43:11.920
He's got the Klashnikov.
link |
00:43:13.520
He's got what looks like a religious scholar's library
link |
00:43:15.640
behind him, right?
link |
00:43:17.040
But if you look at his words, I mean,
link |
00:43:20.120
one fascinating thing about this our politics
link |
00:43:21.520
and just one thing that kind of sums this up,
link |
00:43:22.720
I mean, the fact that on 9 11, we had to have a few people,
link |
00:43:27.880
a few experts, people like Burnett Rubin,
link |
00:43:30.960
who was an Afghanistan expert.
link |
00:43:32.160
So that was one way in which I think, you know,
link |
00:43:33.840
I'm not faulting him personally,
link |
00:43:35.280
but it's just one way in which that relationship appeared
link |
00:43:37.840
to be, you know, formed, right?
link |
00:43:40.360
Of linking Afghanistan to that moment.
link |
00:43:44.160
If one looks actually, you know,
link |
00:43:45.400
what bin Laden was saying and doing,
link |
00:43:47.400
people like Richard Clark were studying this.
link |
00:43:49.400
There were Arab leaders.
link |
00:43:50.360
The Arab press was watching this
link |
00:43:51.960
because he gave some of his first interviews
link |
00:43:54.080
to a few Arab newspaper outlets.
link |
00:43:57.960
But speaking of our American kind of, you know,
link |
00:43:59.760
monolingualism, a lot of what he was saying wasn't known.
link |
00:44:02.680
And so I think for several years,
link |
00:44:05.560
people weren't reading what bin Laden said.
link |
00:44:08.440
I mean, experts are reading it in Arabic,
link |
00:44:10.920
but there was great anxiety around transiting his works.
link |
00:44:14.440
So, you know, we have Mon Comf, we have all this stuff.
link |
00:44:16.480
You can buy the collective works of Lin and Stalin, Mao,
link |
00:44:18.880
whatever you want in whatever language you want.
link |
00:44:21.120
But bin Laden was taboo for American publishing.
link |
00:44:23.040
And so it was only a verse though in the UK
link |
00:44:26.200
that published a famous volume called,
link |
00:44:29.080
Messages to the World,
link |
00:44:31.000
which was the first companion of bin Laden's writings.
link |
00:44:33.880
So he has a mind conf.
link |
00:44:36.040
He has a tight, does he have a thing with you?
link |
00:44:38.400
I mean, it's a kind of collective works.
link |
00:44:39.240
It's a collective works of his.
link |
00:44:40.920
Okay, so he had, well, like a blog.
link |
00:44:44.240
Like it's a collection of articles versus.
link |
00:44:46.880
Yeah, these are interviews.
link |
00:44:47.880
These are his missives, his declarations,
link |
00:44:50.640
his decrees, right?
link |
00:44:55.200
But I think just in terms of,
link |
00:44:57.000
if we zoom out for a second about, you know,
link |
00:44:58.680
American policy choices and so on,
link |
00:45:00.560
the powers to be didn't trust us
link |
00:45:02.680
to know what he was really about.
link |
00:45:04.240
I put it that way.
link |
00:45:05.080
And I don't say that in a conspiratorial sense.
link |
00:45:06.800
I just think that it was, you know, it was a taboo.
link |
00:45:11.080
I think people, you know, there was a kind of consensus
link |
00:45:14.720
that, you know, trust us.
link |
00:45:17.080
We know how to fight al Qaeda.
link |
00:45:20.200
And you don't need to know what they're about
link |
00:45:21.360
because they're crazy.
link |
00:45:22.520
They're fanatics, they're fundamentalists.
link |
00:45:24.520
They hate us.
link |
00:45:25.360
Remember that language?
link |
00:45:26.360
Yeah.
link |
00:45:27.480
Us versus them.
link |
00:45:28.720
But if you read bin Laden,
link |
00:45:29.920
that's when it gets messy.
link |
00:45:30.760
That's where the bin Laden's argumentation
link |
00:45:34.200
is not fundamentally about Islam.
link |
00:45:37.120
And if you were sitting here with an Islamic scholar,
link |
00:45:39.200
he would say, you know, to anyone
link |
00:45:41.960
which is Islamic scholar,
link |
00:45:43.120
they would tend to go through and dissect
link |
00:45:45.560
and negate, you know, 99% of the arguments
link |
00:45:48.680
that bin Laden claimed was in Islam, right?
link |
00:45:51.120
But what strikes me as an historian,
link |
00:45:52.600
who's again, looking at this adjacently,
link |
00:45:56.080
if we read bin Laden, I mean,
link |
00:45:57.200
the arguments that he make are, first of all,
link |
00:46:00.240
they're sophisticated.
link |
00:46:01.440
They reflect a mind that is about geopolitics.
link |
00:46:07.840
He uses terms like imperialism.
link |
00:46:09.960
He knows something about world history.
link |
00:46:12.240
He knows something about geography.
link |
00:46:14.320
So imperialism is the enemy form
link |
00:46:16.160
or what's the nature of the enemy?
link |
00:46:17.840
It's an amalgam.
link |
00:46:19.160
And like a good politician,
link |
00:46:21.600
which is what I would call him,
link |
00:46:23.400
he is adept at speaking in different ways
link |
00:46:27.000
to different audiences.
link |
00:46:28.080
So if you look at the context in which he speaks,
link |
00:46:30.640
if you look at messages to the world,
link |
00:46:33.040
if you look at his writings,
link |
00:46:34.720
and you can zoom it out now.
link |
00:46:35.760
And we now have compendia of the writings
link |
00:46:37.640
of al Qaeda more broadly.
link |
00:46:39.360
You can purchase these, you know,
link |
00:46:42.400
they're basically primary source collections.
link |
00:46:45.320
We now have that for the Taliban.
link |
00:46:47.000
I mean, what's fascinating about,
link |
00:46:49.560
I think if you like this culture,
link |
00:46:52.240
acknowledging it's very, you know, diverse internally,
link |
00:46:55.760
is that these people are representatives
link |
00:46:58.880
of political movements who seek followers.
link |
00:47:01.200
They speak.
link |
00:47:02.560
They often are very, I'd say, skilled at visual imagery.
link |
00:47:08.520
And especially now, I mean, what's fascinating is that,
link |
00:47:10.240
I mean, the Taliban used to shoot televisions.
link |
00:47:12.960
They used to, you know, blow up VCR, you know, videotapes.
link |
00:47:19.440
They used to string audio videocassettes
link |
00:47:22.760
from trees and kind of ceremonial hangings, right?
link |
00:47:25.880
That we're killing this nefarious,
link |
00:47:29.280
infiddle technology that is doing the work of Satan.
link |
00:47:32.240
And yet today, and one of the keys to the Taliban's success
link |
00:47:35.760
is that they got really good at using media.
link |
00:47:38.880
I mean, brilliant at using the written word,
link |
00:47:42.160
the spoken word, music, actually.
link |
00:47:45.080
And, you know, Hollywood, Hollywood is the gold standard.
link |
00:47:48.440
And these guys have studied how to create drama,
link |
00:47:52.240
how to speak to modern users.
link |
00:47:53.840
I mean, Islamic State did this.
link |
00:47:54.960
I mean, the role of media, new media.
link |
00:47:57.560
I mean, I follow and I am followed
link |
00:48:00.680
by senior Taliban leaders, which is, you know, bizarre,
link |
00:48:05.200
you know, on Twitter.
link |
00:48:06.520
On Twitter?
link |
00:48:07.600
I don't know why they care about me.
link |
00:48:08.840
I'm nothing.
link |
00:48:10.440
They follow you on Twitter?
link |
00:48:12.800
I don't know why.
link |
00:48:13.640
This is no joke.
link |
00:48:14.480
This is no joke.
link |
00:48:15.320
So they're part of our modern world
link |
00:48:17.280
and it's how they talk and it's how they recruit.
link |
00:48:18.400
And this is part of the, this is why they are, you know,
link |
00:48:20.760
so Bin Laden, if you read Bin Laden, he,
link |
00:48:22.960
he speaks multiple languages, I would say.
link |
00:48:24.280
It's environmentalism.
link |
00:48:28.120
You know, the West is bad because we destroyed the planet.
link |
00:48:31.520
The West is bad because we abuse women.
link |
00:48:34.520
So in class, you know, especially, you know,
link |
00:48:37.400
female students are very surprised to learn
link |
00:48:40.160
and actually say, you know, this feminist argument
link |
00:48:42.480
is not, you know, we start with, you know,
link |
00:48:46.120
this is a murder.
link |
00:48:47.440
This is a person who has taken human life,
link |
00:48:49.160
innocent life, over and over again.
link |
00:48:51.400
And he is, you know, aspirational and genocidal.
link |
00:48:56.040
But let's try to understand what he's about.
link |
00:48:57.640
So we walk through the texts, read them,
link |
00:48:59.360
and people are shocked to learn that it's not just about,
link |
00:49:04.760
you know, quotations in the Quran
link |
00:49:05.840
strung together in some irrational fashion.
link |
00:49:08.320
He knows, I mean, at the core I'd say
link |
00:49:11.160
is the problem of human suffering.
link |
00:49:12.960
And he has a geography of that that is mostly Muslim,
link |
00:49:15.440
but he talked about the suffering of Kashmir.
link |
00:49:17.720
All right, so if you have a student in your class
link |
00:49:19.600
who's from South Asia, who knows about Kashmir,
link |
00:49:22.240
you know, he or she will say,
link |
00:49:23.920
that's not entirely inaccurate, you know.
link |
00:49:26.960
The Indian state commits atrocities in Kashmir.
link |
00:49:30.960
You know, Pakistan is even that too.
link |
00:49:32.880
You know, Palestine is an issue, right?
link |
00:49:35.080
So you have an American university setting
link |
00:49:37.920
people across the spectrum who get that, you know,
link |
00:49:41.520
Palestinians have had a raw deal.
link |
00:49:43.440
And so it's a, victimhood is central.
link |
00:49:46.240
And it's Muslim victimhood, which is primary,
link |
00:49:50.120
but as a number of scholars have written,
link |
00:49:52.400
and I'm, you know, I definitely think this is a framework
link |
00:49:55.440
for what this useful.
link |
00:49:56.280
I mean, in this kind of vocabulary,
link |
00:49:58.480
in this framing, in this narrative today,
link |
00:50:02.080
in today's world, if we think of today's world
link |
00:50:04.040
being post Cold War, 91 to the present,
link |
00:50:08.800
looking at the series of Gulf Wars,
link |
00:50:12.040
and seeing the visuals of that, I think that, you know,
link |
00:50:13.560
I think the American public has been shielded from some of this,
link |
00:50:15.480
but if you look at, you know,
link |
00:50:16.320
it's the carnage of the Iraqi army
link |
00:50:20.960
that George H. W. Bush produced, right?
link |
00:50:24.200
Or you think of, you know,
link |
00:50:25.040
the images of the suffering of Iraqi children
link |
00:50:28.880
under George H. W. Bush's sanctions,
link |
00:50:31.200
U.S. British air strikes,
link |
00:50:33.440
then you have Madeleine Albright
link |
00:50:35.720
answer a question on 60 Minutes saying,
link |
00:50:37.480
do you think, you know,
link |
00:50:38.320
the deaths of half a million Iraqi kids is worth it?
link |
00:50:41.800
You know, is that justified to contain some Hussein?
link |
00:50:44.680
And she says on camera, yes, it's worth it to me.
link |
00:50:47.880
If you put that all together,
link |
00:50:49.840
I mean, American kids, and of course, the American public,
link |
00:50:52.320
they're not always aware of those facts of global history,
link |
00:50:55.960
but these guys are,
link |
00:50:57.200
and they very capably use these images,
link |
00:51:01.600
use these tropes, and use facts.
link |
00:51:03.840
I mean, in fact, I mean,
link |
00:51:04.680
some of these things are not deniable.
link |
00:51:05.840
I mean, these estimates about the number
link |
00:51:08.040
of Iraqi civilian children dead, you know,
link |
00:51:10.600
that came from, I think, the Lancet,
link |
00:51:12.160
and it came from, you know, those are estimates,
link |
00:51:14.000
but look at this point of view of Amman,
link |
00:51:18.440
of, you know, Jaffa, of Nairobi,
link |
00:51:22.440
you know, just think around the planet.
link |
00:51:25.120
And if you see yourself as the victim
link |
00:51:26.560
of this great imperial power,
link |
00:51:29.720
you know, you see why especially young men
link |
00:51:31.040
would be drawn to a road of self sacrifice.
link |
00:51:37.240
And the idea is that in killing others,
link |
00:51:41.880
you are making them feel how you feel
link |
00:51:46.920
because they won't listen to your arguments reasonably
link |
00:51:49.240
because they won't, you know, recognize Palestinian suffering,
link |
00:51:52.680
Bosnian suffering, right?
link |
00:51:54.480
Chechen suffering, you go across the planet, right?
link |
00:51:57.480
Because they won't recognize our suffering,
link |
00:52:00.040
we're gonna speak to you
link |
00:52:01.000
in the only language that you understand,
link |
00:52:02.720
and that's violence.
link |
00:52:04.240
And look at the violence of the post 1991 world, right?
link |
00:52:08.240
In which American air power really becomes a global,
link |
00:52:12.360
you know, kind of fact in the lives of so many people.
link |
00:52:16.840
And then the big mistake after 911, among many,
link |
00:52:19.400
I mean, fundamentally was taking the war on terror
link |
00:52:22.920
to some, you know, 30 or 40 countries, right?
link |
00:52:25.080
So that you have a more and more of the globe feel
link |
00:52:28.920
like they're under attack, right?
link |
00:52:30.880
And the logic is essentially, it's not,
link |
00:52:32.320
it's not, it's really been law and it's not,
link |
00:52:34.160
we're going to convert you and turn you into Muslims,
link |
00:52:37.520
that's why we're doing this.
link |
00:52:38.840
That appears, that claim does appear at times,
link |
00:52:42.160
but it's, if you look at any given bin Laden text,
link |
00:52:45.160
I mean, there are 40 claims in each text.
link |
00:52:47.520
I mean, it's kind of, it's dizzying,
link |
00:52:48.920
but he's a modern politician.
link |
00:52:51.120
He knows the language of social quality,
link |
00:52:54.880
you know, that there's a class dimension to it,
link |
00:52:56.880
there is an environmental dimension to it,
link |
00:52:58.720
there's a gender dimension to it.
link |
00:53:00.800
And yes, there are chronic quotes sprinkled in,
link |
00:53:04.240
and when he wants to speak that language,
link |
00:53:06.560
he knew that, you know, he's not a scholar.
link |
00:53:09.320
So he would often get a few recognized scholars to sign on.
link |
00:53:13.440
So some of his declarations of Jihad had his signature
link |
00:53:17.120
kind of sprinkled in with like a dozen other signatures
link |
00:53:20.520
from people who were somewhat known
link |
00:53:22.800
or at least, you know, with titles, right?
link |
00:53:25.920
So as a kind of intellectual exercise,
link |
00:53:28.200
it's fascinating to see that he is throwing everything
link |
00:53:31.480
at the wall at one level.
link |
00:53:34.080
That's one way to see that it's a,
link |
00:53:35.760
these are kind of testaments toward recruitment
link |
00:53:39.880
of people who, yes, they're angry, yes, they're unhappy.
link |
00:53:43.840
And this is what, you know, I think
link |
00:53:45.680
for a broader public, it's hard to get, you're like,
link |
00:53:47.560
well, Bin Laden suffered, he wasn't poor.
link |
00:53:51.280
Like, yeah, I mean, linen, pulp hot.
link |
00:53:54.760
I mean, they're speaking to the empathetic
link |
00:53:57.160
to the suffering, the landscape,
link |
00:53:58.560
the full landscape of suffering.
link |
00:53:59.880
It's interesting to think about suffering, you know,
link |
00:54:03.760
America, the American public,
link |
00:54:06.880
American politicians and leaders,
link |
00:54:09.880
when they see what is good and evil,
link |
00:54:13.080
they are often not empathetic to the suffering of others.
link |
00:54:16.560
And what you're saying has been Latin,
link |
00:54:20.320
perhaps accurately could speak to the ignorance of America,
link |
00:54:24.840
maybe the Soviet Union, to the suffering of their people.
link |
00:54:28.280
That's right.
link |
00:54:29.120
And I mean, if you look at the speeches
link |
00:54:32.680
and the ideas that are public of Hitler in the 1930s,
link |
00:54:37.200
he spoke quite accurately to the injustice
link |
00:54:42.600
and maybe the suffering of the German people.
link |
00:54:46.040
I mean, charismatic politicians are good
link |
00:54:49.440
at telling accurate stories.
link |
00:54:50.800
It's not all fabricated, but they emphasize certain aspects.
link |
00:54:55.600
And then the problem part is the actions
link |
00:54:58.400
you should take based on that.
link |
00:55:00.280
So the narratives and the stories
link |
00:55:03.640
may be grounded in historical accuracy.
link |
00:55:06.720
The actions then cross the line, the ethical line.
link |
00:55:11.840
I find that too, I mean, it's a, again,
link |
00:55:13.800
if you pick up just one of these texts,
link |
00:55:14.800
I mean, it's a claudoscope.
link |
00:55:16.000
So the Hitler analogy is interesting
link |
00:55:18.480
because it's, you know, Hitler spoke to,
link |
00:55:21.200
he could speak to things like inflation, right?
link |
00:55:23.400
Which really existed, but he also appealed
link |
00:55:26.280
to the irrational emotions of Germans, right?
link |
00:55:29.920
He sought out scapegoats, you know, Jews, Roma,
link |
00:55:35.400
disabled people, homosexuals, and so on, right?
link |
00:55:37.960
I mean, that's also there in Bin Laden too.
link |
00:55:40.120
I mean, daddy of, you know, an anti semitism,
link |
00:55:44.880
the constant flagging of Zionists and crusaders.
link |
00:55:47.600
It's a kind of shotgun approach to a search for followers.
link |
00:55:50.680
But I also hasten to add that it's
link |
00:55:53.120
for all of the things that we could take off saying,
link |
00:55:55.560
well, yes, Kashmiris have suffered,
link |
00:55:58.320
Chechens have suffered, and so on.
link |
00:56:01.240
Bin Ladenism never became a mass movement.
link |
00:56:04.280
I mean, it never really, I think the,
link |
00:56:08.000
I mean, this is the encouraging thing, right?
link |
00:56:09.720
About ideology.
link |
00:56:11.400
I mean, I think the blood on his hands
link |
00:56:14.800
always limited his appeal among Muslims and others.
link |
00:56:19.520
But Bin Laden did have, I mean, he had a,
link |
00:56:21.080
there's a great book by a great scholar at UC San Diego,
link |
00:56:25.800
Jeremy Prestholt, who read a great book
link |
00:56:27.880
about global icons in which he has Bin Laden.
link |
00:56:31.760
He has Bob Marley.
link |
00:56:35.640
He has Tupac.
link |
00:56:38.000
You know, he asked why, you know, when he's doing research
link |
00:56:41.760
in East Africa, why did he see young kids
link |
00:56:43.920
wearing Bin Laden shirts?
link |
00:56:46.240
They're also wearing like Tupac shirts.
link |
00:56:48.120
They're wearing Bin Bob Marley shirts.
link |
00:56:49.960
And basically it's a way of looking at
link |
00:56:52.720
a kind of partial embrace of some aspects
link |
00:56:57.920
of the rebelliousness of some of these figures,
link |
00:57:01.760
some of the time by some people under certain conditions.
link |
00:57:05.240
Well, the terrifying thing to me.
link |
00:57:06.440
So yeah, there is a longing in the human heart
link |
00:57:08.720
to belong to a group and a charismatic leader
link |
00:57:12.320
somehow, especially when you're young,
link |
00:57:16.080
just a catalyst for all of that.
link |
00:57:17.880
And I tend to think that perhaps it's actually hard
link |
00:57:22.880
to be a Hitler, so a leader so charismatic
link |
00:57:26.720
that he can rattle a nation to war.
link |
00:57:29.520
And Bin Laden, perhaps we're lucky,
link |
00:57:32.520
was not sufficiently charismatic.
link |
00:57:35.520
I feel like if his writing was better,
link |
00:57:37.680
if his speeches were better,
link |
00:57:39.520
if his ideas were stronger,
link |
00:57:42.840
but it's like more viral,
link |
00:57:45.960
and then there would be more people
link |
00:57:48.760
kind of young people uniting around him.
link |
00:57:52.520
So in some sense, it's almost like accidents of history
link |
00:57:56.160
of just how much charisma,
link |
00:57:58.200
how much charisma a particular evil person has
link |
00:58:01.280
for a person like Bin Laden.
link |
00:58:03.160
I think it's fair, evil works, I think.
link |
00:58:05.640
Do you think Bin Laden is evil?
link |
00:58:07.360
Oh yeah, yeah, I mean, he was a mass murderer.
link |
00:58:11.080
I'm just saying that his ideas were,
link |
00:58:13.680
they're more complex than we've tended to acknowledge.
link |
00:58:17.640
They have a wider potential resonance
link |
00:58:21.960
than we would acknowledge.
link |
00:58:23.320
I mean, and also I guess one fundamental point
link |
00:58:27.160
is that thinking about the complexity of Bin Laden
link |
00:58:31.680
is also a way of removing him from Islam.
link |
00:58:35.560
He is not an Islamic thinker.
link |
00:58:36.760
He is a cosmopolitan thinker who plays
link |
00:58:41.280
in all kinds of modern ideologies,
link |
00:58:43.240
which have proven to mobilize people in the past, right?
link |
00:58:45.720
So antisemitism, populism, environmentalism,
link |
00:58:51.920
and the urging to do something about humanity,
link |
00:58:56.400
do something about suffering.
link |
00:58:57.800
That's why I think the actual,
link |
00:58:59.120
you ask about what motivates people to do this kind of stuff.
link |
00:59:01.000
I think that's why if one goes below the level of leadership,
link |
00:59:04.400
and this is being reported,
link |
00:59:05.720
if you look at the trial ongoing now in Paris
link |
00:59:09.240
of the Bataclan murders, I think, the court allowed
link |
00:59:15.080
some discussion of the backgrounds of the accused,
link |
00:59:17.640
and they come from different backgrounds,
link |
00:59:20.360
but if there's any common bond,
link |
00:59:22.040
it's kind of that they had some background in petty crime.
link |
00:59:26.160
Famously in the 7.7 bombings in London,
link |
00:59:29.240
the Metropolitan Police, UK authorities
link |
00:59:32.560
looked at all those guys,
link |
00:59:34.520
and what people want is this idea
link |
00:59:36.920
that they must be very pious.
link |
00:59:39.080
They must be super Islamic to do this kind of stuff.
link |
00:59:42.040
They must be fanatical true believers,
link |
00:59:43.560
but what they found with those guys
link |
00:59:45.360
was that some were nominally Muslim,
link |
00:59:50.000
some went to mosques, some didn't.
link |
00:59:53.320
Some were single young guys with like criminal backgrounds.
link |
00:59:57.640
Some were like, sorry, they were kind of misfits
link |
01:00:01.920
who never succeeded in anything,
link |
01:00:04.400
but others had at least one thing,
link |
01:00:06.480
had a wife and family who he would owed and orphaned.
link |
01:00:10.480
And so there's no, I mean, for policing,
link |
01:00:12.840
I mean, if you're looking at the Bataclan's,
link |
01:00:15.160
there is no kind of typology
link |
01:00:17.560
that will predict who will become violent.
link |
01:00:20.120
And that's why I think we have to move beyond
link |
01:00:22.160
thinking about religious augmentation narrowly
link |
01:00:24.400
or by itself and think about things like geopolitics,
link |
01:00:27.280
thinking about how people respond to inequality,
link |
01:00:30.920
the existential threat of climate crisis,
link |
01:00:35.920
of a whole host of matters and think about,
link |
01:00:39.960
this is a mode of political contestation.
link |
01:00:42.040
I mean, it's a violent one, it's one I can do,
link |
01:00:43.520
it is evil, right?
link |
01:00:45.160
But these are people that are,
link |
01:00:46.720
they're trying to be political,
link |
01:00:47.720
they're trying to change things in some way.
link |
01:00:49.760
It's not narrowly about like,
link |
01:00:51.440
I don't know, impose sharia law on you,
link |
01:00:54.160
you must wear a veil, you must eat this kind of food,
link |
01:00:57.200
it's not that parochial.
link |
01:00:59.320
But what went, another quick thought
link |
01:01:00.960
about your interesting claim about charisma in this,
link |
01:01:03.320
I think that the one self limiting feature
link |
01:01:06.800
of this subculture is that definitely,
link |
01:01:11.040
I mentioned the enigma of not wanting to be seen
link |
01:01:13.920
and that the kind of invisibility
link |
01:01:17.400
is a productive force of a power,
link |
01:01:20.680
you know, which a colleague of mine who knows
link |
01:01:23.320
ancient history far better than I,
link |
01:01:25.400
you know, so this is, you know,
link |
01:01:26.360
when she looked at Malomar initially
link |
01:01:29.360
or we time up in Laden, I mean,
link |
01:01:30.600
this kind of studied posture of staying in the shadows,
link |
01:01:35.720
you know, is also a source of authority potentially
link |
01:01:37.960
because it, it invites the idea,
link |
01:01:41.120
and it's partly dictatorships too as well.
link |
01:01:42.800
I mean, it invites the idea that someone's working
link |
01:01:45.760
and maybe it's the basis for a lot of QAnon
link |
01:01:47.800
or other conspiracy today that someone's working
link |
01:01:49.840
behind the scenes and things are gonna go the right way,
link |
01:01:53.000
you can't see it, that's almost preferable
link |
01:01:55.400
because you can kind of feel it.
link |
01:01:57.960
And so not having someone out front
link |
01:02:01.120
can maybe be more effective
link |
01:02:02.720
than having someone out in front constantly.
link |
01:02:04.880
Then the whole. Maybe, maybe.
link |
01:02:06.400
And then the whole Bin Laden, you know,
link |
01:02:07.560
Malomar thing like you can't see me
link |
01:02:09.280
or if you look at Bin Laden's photographs
link |
01:02:11.360
and his video stuff, I mean, he's, he's coy.
link |
01:02:16.320
Some observers have noted that he's kind of effeminate.
link |
01:02:18.840
He doesn't strike this kind of masculine.
link |
01:02:21.160
He's not a Mussolini.
link |
01:02:22.320
He's not a Hitler macho.
link |
01:02:25.120
I'm standing, might dump in my chest.
link |
01:02:26.760
He's not doing the theatrical chin, you know.
link |
01:02:29.400
The theater people tell us it's so aggressive, you know.
link |
01:02:32.800
Oh, a chin? What, putting your chin up?
link |
01:02:35.480
I saw a great BBC theater person.
link |
01:02:38.200
It was kind of a, it was a makeover show
link |
01:02:40.240
about how to become a better.
link |
01:02:42.320
A theater? Oh no.
link |
01:02:43.760
Just a powerful, yeah, leader authoritarian figure.
link |
01:02:47.720
No, just how to, how to like get ahead in life.
link |
01:02:49.840
And then. Oh, okay, cool.
link |
01:02:51.080
And just like about acting,
link |
01:02:52.400
like how you can act differently, right?
link |
01:02:53.720
So it was, it was a BBC thing.
link |
01:02:55.360
And this woman claimed that, you know,
link |
01:02:59.720
sticking your chin out like a wrestler does, right?
link |
01:03:01.640
Is the most like male to male.
link |
01:03:03.080
I love this kind of.
link |
01:03:04.120
Most aggressive.
link |
01:03:04.960
Hilarious analysis that people have about power.
link |
01:03:08.440
But watch the chin, watch the chin.
link |
01:03:09.720
It's the same as analyzing, like in wrestling styles
link |
01:03:13.920
that win or fighting or so on.
link |
01:03:16.360
There's so many ways to do it.
link |
01:03:17.480
Well, the chin, I mean, the chin is a,
link |
01:03:19.440
could be interesting verbal gesture.
link |
01:03:21.640
And I, I've watched enough Mussolini footage for my classes
link |
01:03:25.880
to try to pick the right moment.
link |
01:03:27.520
And the chin is, Mussolini's all about the chin.
link |
01:03:29.480
So.
link |
01:03:30.320
And I have watched human beings and human nature enough
link |
01:03:33.560
to know that there's more to a man,
link |
01:03:36.240
a powerful man than a chin.
link |
01:03:38.080
Yeah, no, no, I'm saying it's an act of aggression.
link |
01:03:40.360
I'm not saying it's.
link |
01:03:41.200
It's one of the many tools in the toolkit.
link |
01:03:43.800
Yeah, yeah, sure.
link |
01:03:44.640
So she definitely.
link |
01:03:45.480
It's not, it's not all about the chin, but it's, it's a.
link |
01:03:47.520
But that's what I'm trying to tell you about Bin Laden.
link |
01:03:49.520
I don't think he was deliberate enough
link |
01:03:52.520
with the way he presents himself.
link |
01:03:54.400
What I'm saying about Bin Laden,
link |
01:03:55.880
that makes him different from these other characters is it,
link |
01:03:58.080
because he played it being the scholar.
link |
01:04:01.520
He played it being a figure of modesty and humility.
link |
01:04:05.600
And that meant that he was often,
link |
01:04:07.960
again, if you watch his visuals, I mean, yes,
link |
01:04:09.520
there's one video of him firing a gun,
link |
01:04:11.800
but if you watch how he moved,
link |
01:04:14.280
how he wouldn't look at people directly,
link |
01:04:16.240
how his face was almost,
link |
01:04:17.920
I mean, he appears to be incredibly shy.
link |
01:04:20.320
He saw spoken, you know, his voice was low.
link |
01:04:23.920
He attempted to be poetic, right?
link |
01:04:25.880
So it wasn't a warrior kind of image
link |
01:04:28.520
that he tried to project of like a tough guy.
link |
01:04:30.960
It was, I'm, I'm demure, I'm humble.
link |
01:04:34.680
I mean, you know, I'm, I'm offering you this message.
link |
01:04:37.160
And that, and that the, the appeal that he was going for was
link |
01:04:40.760
to see, you know, to project himself as a scholar,
link |
01:04:45.640
his knowledge and humility, the whole package,
link |
01:04:48.400
carried with it an authenticity and a valor
link |
01:04:52.080
that would animate, inspire people to commit acts of violence.
link |
01:04:55.840
Right?
link |
01:04:56.680
So it's a different kind of like logic of like go and kill.
link |
01:04:59.200
Right?
link |
01:05:00.040
So he put, he presented himself in contrast
link |
01:05:03.680
to the imperialist kind of macho power.
link |
01:05:07.920
Yeah, bombastic, whatever.
link |
01:05:08.960
Yeah, yeah.
link |
01:05:09.800
So that's just yet another way of,
link |
01:05:13.000
and you have to have facial hair
link |
01:05:14.480
or hair of different kind that's recognized.
link |
01:05:16.200
We had a very recognizable look to,
link |
01:05:18.120
or at least later in life.
link |
01:05:20.000
Yeah.
link |
01:05:20.840
Now he, he tried to look apart.
link |
01:05:22.840
Yeah.
link |
01:05:24.000
But I'm saying we're fortunate that whatever
link |
01:05:27.520
calculation that he was making,
link |
01:05:29.040
he was not more effective.
link |
01:05:32.880
Yeah.
link |
01:05:33.720
I mean, there's the world is full of terrorist organizations
link |
01:05:38.240
and we're fortunate to the degree any one of them
link |
01:05:42.680
does not have an incredibly charismatic leader
link |
01:05:45.560
that attains the kind of power that's very difficult
link |
01:05:49.360
to manage at the geopolitical level.
link |
01:05:52.480
Yeah, and we credit the, we credit the publics,
link |
01:05:55.040
you know, who don't, you don't buy into that, right?
link |
01:05:57.120
Who see through this.
link |
01:05:57.960
We credit the critics, you know,
link |
01:06:01.280
barely on, going back to not allowing itself.
link |
01:06:05.320
One of the problems was that U.S. government officials
link |
01:06:08.880
kept kind of leaning on Muslims to condemn this
link |
01:06:12.120
as if all Muslims shared some collective responsibility
link |
01:06:16.240
or culpability.
link |
01:06:17.800
And in fact, dozens of scholars and organizations,
link |
01:06:23.080
hundreds condemned this,
link |
01:06:25.080
but their combinations never quite made it out.
link |
01:06:27.160
But it created an attention where, you know,
link |
01:06:29.920
if you were avail, you must have been one of them
link |
01:06:32.440
and you must be on team Bin Laden.
link |
01:06:33.960
And so a lot of the, you know,
link |
01:06:35.600
I think a lot of the popular violence and discrimination
link |
01:06:38.400
and profiling came out of that urge to
link |
01:06:42.000
see a oneness, which, you know, Bin Laden projected, right?
link |
01:06:45.400
He wanted to say, we are one community, you know,
link |
01:06:48.080
if you are a Muslim, you must be with me, right?
link |
01:06:50.640
But I think the, that's where the diversity
link |
01:06:53.960
of Muslim communities became important
link |
01:06:55.600
because outside of small pockets, I mean,
link |
01:06:57.560
they didn't accept his leadership, right?
link |
01:07:00.040
People wore T shirts in some countries.
link |
01:07:01.480
I mean, non Muslims wore T shirts
link |
01:07:02.440
because he was like, he stuck it to the Americans.
link |
01:07:03.960
So in Latin America, people are like, yeah, that was sad.
link |
01:07:07.880
But, you know, finally, I mean,
link |
01:07:09.800
there was a kind of shot in Florida
link |
01:07:10.960
in that moment internationally.
link |
01:07:12.120
It's like Che Guevara or somebody like that.
link |
01:07:13.880
Che, yeah.
link |
01:07:14.720
Che's the other character in Priscilla's book.
link |
01:07:16.120
Yeah, yeah, that's right, that's right, yeah.
link |
01:07:17.720
It's just a symbol, it's not exactly what he believed.
link |
01:07:20.720
Exactly.
link |
01:07:21.560
Or the cruelty of actions he took.
link |
01:07:23.040
Right.
link |
01:07:23.880
It's more like he stood for an idea of
link |
01:07:25.800
revolution versus authority.
link |
01:07:28.080
That's right.
link |
01:07:28.920
And that's, and that's the great way to understand
link |
01:07:32.160
Bin Ladenism and the whole phenomenon,
link |
01:07:33.400
but I think looking at the big picture,
link |
01:07:35.360
it's also, you wonder, without ever end, right?
link |
01:07:40.160
I mean, is that, I mean, that's the risk of being
link |
01:07:42.400
a kind of hyperpower like the U.S. where you,
link |
01:07:46.600
in assisting on a kind of unipolar world,
link |
01:07:49.920
in 2001, 2002, 2003, I mean, that created
link |
01:07:55.240
an almost irresistible target, you know,
link |
01:07:57.840
wherever the U.S. wanted to exert itself militarily.
link |
01:08:00.680
Before we go to the history of Afghanistan,
link |
01:08:03.960
the people, and I just want to talk to you about
link |
01:08:06.560
just some fascinating aspect of the culture.
link |
01:08:10.520
Let's go to the end.
link |
01:08:12.960
Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
link |
01:08:18.040
What are your thoughts on how that was executed?
link |
01:08:21.480
How could it have been done better?
link |
01:08:24.400
Yeah, an important question.
link |
01:08:25.960
I mean, I would preface all this by saying,
link |
01:08:28.960
you know, as I noted, I think the war was a mistake.
link |
01:08:31.720
I had hoped the war would end sooner.
link |
01:08:36.520
I think there were different exit routes all along the way.
link |
01:08:39.880
Again, I think there were lots of policy choices
link |
01:08:43.400
in September, in October, when the war began.
link |
01:08:46.960
There were choices in December, 2001.
link |
01:08:50.520
So we could look at almost every six month stopping point
link |
01:08:54.040
and say, we could have done differently.
link |
01:08:57.560
As it turns out though, I mean, the way it played out,
link |
01:09:00.680
you know, it's been catastrophic.
link |
01:09:02.360
And I think the Biden administration
link |
01:09:08.280
has remained unaccountable for the scale of the strategic
link |
01:09:12.160
and humanitarian and ethical failure
link |
01:09:14.320
that they're responsible for.
link |
01:09:15.920
Well, okay, let's lay out the full,
link |
01:09:19.280
there's George W. Bush, there's Barack Obama,
link |
01:09:24.000
there's Donald Trump, there's Biden.
link |
01:09:27.800
So they're all driving this van and these exits
link |
01:09:32.880
and they keep not taking the exits
link |
01:09:34.560
and they're running out of gas.
link |
01:09:36.560
I do this all the time thinking,
link |
01:09:38.000
where am I gonna pull off?
link |
01:09:39.000
I'll go to this empty.
link |
01:09:41.280
How could it have been done better?
link |
01:09:43.920
And what exactly, how much suffering
link |
01:09:48.760
have all of the decisions along the way caused?
link |
01:09:52.440
What are the long term consequences?
link |
01:09:54.280
What are the biggest things that concern you
link |
01:09:56.400
about the decisions we've made in both invading Afghanistan
link |
01:10:00.640
and staying in Afghanistan as long as we have?
link |
01:10:03.400
I mean, if we start at the end, as you proposed,
link |
01:10:07.840
you know, the horrific scenes of the airport,
link |
01:10:09.600
you know, that was just one dimension.
link |
01:10:13.000
I think in the weeks to come,
link |
01:10:15.880
I mean, we're gonna see Afghanistan implode.
link |
01:10:19.600
There are lots of signs that malnutrition, hunger,
link |
01:10:22.640
starvation are going to claim tens of thousands,
link |
01:10:27.000
maybe hundreds of thousands of lives this winter.
link |
01:10:29.520
And I think there is really nothing,
link |
01:10:33.080
there's no framework in place to force all that.
link |
01:10:38.920
What is the government,
link |
01:10:40.480
what is currently the system there?
link |
01:10:42.880
What's the role of the Taliban?
link |
01:10:44.720
So there could be tens of thousands,
link |
01:10:46.600
hundreds of thousands of starve,
link |
01:10:48.400
either just almost the famine or starve to death.
link |
01:10:54.360
So this is economic implosion.
link |
01:10:56.600
This is political implosion.
link |
01:10:58.080
What's the system there like?
link |
01:11:01.520
And what could be the one, you know,
link |
01:11:03.560
some inkling of hope?
link |
01:11:05.000
Right, right.
link |
01:11:06.800
The Taliban sit in control.
link |
01:11:08.600
That's unique when they were in power in the 1990s
link |
01:11:11.360
from 1996, 2001, they controlled some 85 to 90%
link |
01:11:16.360
of the country.
link |
01:11:17.720
Now they own it all, but they have no budget.
link |
01:11:21.320
The Afghan banking system is frozen.
link |
01:11:27.600
So the financial system is a mess.
link |
01:11:29.920
And it's frozen by the US
link |
01:11:31.240
because the US is trying to use that lever
link |
01:11:33.440
to exert pressure on the Taliban.
link |
01:11:35.720
And so the ethical quandaries are of course, legion, right?
link |
01:11:39.480
Do you release that money to allow the Taliban
link |
01:11:43.000
to shore up their rule, right?
link |
01:11:45.280
The Biden administration has said no,
link |
01:11:47.680
but the banks aren't working.
link |
01:11:51.160
If you're in California, you want to send $100 to your cousin
link |
01:11:55.160
so she can buy bread, you can't do that now.
link |
01:11:58.680
It's almost impossible.
link |
01:11:59.880
There are some informal networks,
link |
01:12:01.280
they're moving some stuff, but there are bread lines.
link |
01:12:04.880
The Taliban government is incapable fundamentally
link |
01:12:08.520
of ruling.
link |
01:12:09.360
I mean, they can discipline people on the street.
link |
01:12:12.280
They can force people into the mosque.
link |
01:12:14.160
They can shoot people, they can beat protesters.
link |
01:12:17.560
They can put out a newspaper.
link |
01:12:19.720
They can have their graded diplomacy, it turns out.
link |
01:12:22.560
They can't rule this country.
link |
01:12:23.800
So essentially the hospitals
link |
01:12:26.720
and the kind of healthcare infrastructure
link |
01:12:30.280
is being managed by NGOs that are international.
link |
01:12:37.440
But many people had to leave
link |
01:12:40.040
and the Taliban have impeded some of that work.
link |
01:12:43.280
They've told adult women essentially to stay home, right?
link |
01:12:46.720
So a big part of the workforce isn't there.
link |
01:12:50.280
So I mean, the supply chain is kind of crawling to a halt.
link |
01:12:55.880
Trade with Pakistan and its neighbors,
link |
01:12:58.880
I mean, it's kind of a transit trade economy.
link |
01:13:02.280
It exports fruits.
link |
01:13:04.080
Pakistan has been closing the border
link |
01:13:06.280
because they're anxious about refugees.
link |
01:13:07.880
They want to exert pressure on the international community
link |
01:13:10.880
to recognize the Taliban.
link |
01:13:12.280
Because the Pakistan want the Taliban to succeed and power
link |
01:13:16.280
because they see that in Pakistan's national interest,
link |
01:13:19.280
especially through the lens of its rivalry with India.
link |
01:13:22.280
So the Pakistani security institutions
link |
01:13:26.280
are playing a double game.
link |
01:13:28.280
And especially the Afghan people are being held hostage.
link |
01:13:30.280
And so the Taliban are also saying,
link |
01:13:33.280
if you don't recognize us,
link |
01:13:35.280
you're gonna let tens of millions of Afghans starve.
link |
01:13:38.280
So to which degree is Taliban,
link |
01:13:40.280
like who are the Taliban?
link |
01:13:43.280
What do they stand for?
link |
01:13:45.280
What do they want?
link |
01:13:46.280
Obviously, year by year, this changes.
link |
01:13:49.280
So what is the nature of this organization?
link |
01:13:52.280
Can they be a legitimate, peaceful, kind, respectful government
link |
01:13:59.280
sort of holder of power?
link |
01:14:02.280
Or are they fundamentally not capable of doing so?
link |
01:14:06.280
Yeah.
link |
01:14:07.280
I mean, the briefest answer would be that they are a clerical
link |
01:14:13.280
slash military organization.
link |
01:14:17.280
They have, this is kind of an imperfect metaphor,
link |
01:14:23.280
but years ago, a German scholar used the term caravan
link |
01:14:28.280
to describe them.
link |
01:14:29.280
And that has some attractive elements
link |
01:14:31.280
because different people have joined the Taliban
link |
01:14:35.280
for different purposes at different times.
link |
01:14:37.280
But today, and people tell us scholars
link |
01:14:40.280
who know more about the women than I have said,
link |
01:14:42.280
listen, the Taliban is this kind of hodgepodge
link |
01:14:45.280
of different actors and people and competing interests.
link |
01:14:48.280
And I think, so we have a lot of scholars who say,
link |
01:14:51.280
listen, it's polycentric.
link |
01:14:54.280
It's got people in this city and that city and so on.
link |
01:14:57.280
I think actually, I was obviously skeptical,
link |
01:14:59.280
how do they know this?
link |
01:15:01.280
I mean, this is an organization that doesn't want you to know
link |
01:15:04.280
where that money comes from and so on.
link |
01:15:06.280
But I would say now that we have a clear picture
link |
01:15:09.280
of what has happened, I'd say they are a standingly,
link |
01:15:13.280
well organized clerical military organization
link |
01:15:17.280
that has a very cohesive and enduring ideology,
link |
01:15:24.280
which is quite idiosyncratic if we zoom out
link |
01:15:26.280
and continue the conversation we're having about Islam
link |
01:15:28.280
and how we think about radicalism and who's drawn to what.
link |
01:15:33.280
People throw different terms around to describe the Taliban.
link |
01:15:38.280
Some use a term that links it to a kind of school thought
link |
01:15:42.280
born in the 90th century in India, the Doha Bandi school.
link |
01:15:46.280
But if you look at their teachings, it's very clear now,
link |
01:15:49.280
I think that these labels, it's like saying,
link |
01:15:52.280
you're an MIT guy, well, what does that mean?
link |
01:15:54.280
I mean, MIT is home to dozens of different potentially
link |
01:15:58.280
kinds of intellectual orientations, right?
link |
01:16:01.280
I mean, attaching them to school doesn't quite capture,
link |
01:16:05.280
I mean, your position.
link |
01:16:07.280
It's complicated. I mean, actually MIT is interesting
link |
01:16:09.280
because I would say MIT is different than Stanford, for example.
link |
01:16:12.280
I think MIT has a more kind of narrow...
link |
01:16:16.280
Yeah, I hear you.
link |
01:16:17.280
Bad analogy in my part, maybe.
link |
01:16:19.280
Well, no, it's interesting because I would argue
link |
01:16:21.280
that there's some aspect of a brand like Taliban or MIT,
link |
01:16:26.280
no relation that has a kind of interact...
link |
01:16:33.280
The brand results in the behavior of the...
link |
01:16:37.280
Enforces a kind of behavior on the people
link |
01:16:39.280
and the people feed the brand.
link |
01:16:41.280
I think Stanford is a good example of something
link |
01:16:44.280
that's more distributed.
link |
01:16:45.280
There's sufficient amount of diversity
link |
01:16:48.280
in all kinds of centers and all that kind of stuff
link |
01:16:51.280
that the brand doesn't become one thing.
link |
01:16:55.280
MIT is so engineering.
link |
01:16:57.280
Yeah, I think...
link |
01:16:59.280
Okay, the scratch...
link |
01:17:00.280
The scratch same for two because I think Stanford's more like MIT
link |
01:17:03.280
than you might imagine.
link |
01:17:06.280
But isn't Taliban, isn't it pretty...
link |
01:17:09.280
I don't think there's a diversity.
link |
01:17:11.280
Sorry, just a rephrase.
link |
01:17:13.280
So people say, oh, the Deobandi school.
link |
01:17:15.280
I'm like, what is that?
link |
01:17:16.280
I mean, the Taliban are...
link |
01:17:18.280
They're an ethnic movement.
link |
01:17:20.280
They represent a vision of Pashtun power.
link |
01:17:25.280
The Pashtuns are people who are quite internally diverse,
link |
01:17:29.280
who actually speak multiple dialects of Pashto,
link |
01:17:34.280
who reside across the frontier of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
link |
01:17:40.280
There are Pashtuns who live all over the planet.
link |
01:17:42.280
There's a community in Moscow, California, everywhere.
link |
01:17:45.280
So it's a global diaspora of sorts.
link |
01:17:48.280
Pashtuns have a kind of genealogical imagination,
link |
01:17:51.280
so that lots of Pashtuns can tell you the names of their grandparents,
link |
01:17:54.280
great grandparents, and so on.
link |
01:17:55.280
And that's kind of a...
link |
01:17:56.280
There's a sense of pride in that.
link |
01:17:58.280
Pashto language is a kind of core element of that identity,
link |
01:18:03.280
but it's not universal.
link |
01:18:05.280
So for example, you can meet people who say,
link |
01:18:07.280
I am Pashtun, but I don't know Pashto.
link |
01:18:10.280
So as you claw away at this idea, it's amorphous.
link |
01:18:14.280
It also means different things to different people at different times.
link |
01:18:17.280
So saying the Taliban are Pashtun requires lots of qualifiers,
link |
01:18:21.280
because lots of Pashtuns will say,
link |
01:18:23.280
no, no, I have nothing to the Taliban.
link |
01:18:26.280
I hate those people.
link |
01:18:28.280
So the Taliban tried to mobilize other Pashtuns with limited success,
link |
01:18:33.280
but their core membership is almost exclusively Pashtun.
link |
01:18:36.280
And they say, no, no, we represent Afghans.
link |
01:18:39.280
We represent Pious Muslims.
link |
01:18:42.280
And so in recent two, three years,
link |
01:18:45.280
they've gone further to say, no, we have other groups.
link |
01:18:48.280
We have Uzbeks.
link |
01:18:49.280
We have Tajiks.
link |
01:18:50.280
We have Hazaras.
link |
01:18:52.280
And in the north of Afghanistan, in recent years,
link |
01:18:54.280
they did do a bit better at drawing in people who were very disaffected
link |
01:18:58.280
because of the government.
link |
01:18:59.280
And they were able to diversify their ranks somewhat.
link |
01:19:02.280
But if you want to say August 15 and who they've appointed,
link |
01:19:05.280
what language they've used, how they've presented themselves,
link |
01:19:09.280
it's clear that they are Pashtun.
link |
01:19:12.280
They are male.
link |
01:19:14.280
And they are extremely ideologically cohesive and disciplined,
link |
01:19:21.280
I'd say.
link |
01:19:22.280
So I think that a lot of the polycentrism, blah, blah,
link |
01:19:25.280
some of that stuff was a way to fight a war.
link |
01:19:28.280
They are fundamentally a guerrilla movement.
link |
01:19:32.280
They see themselves as kind of pious Robin Hoods.
link |
01:19:37.280
The rhetoric is very much about taking from the rich,
link |
01:19:40.280
taking from the privilege, giving to the poor,
link |
01:19:42.280
being on the side of the underdog, fighting against evil.
link |
01:19:46.280
And so, I mean, their bag, if you like, their thing,
link |
01:19:50.280
their central theme, their brand, is about public morality.
link |
01:19:53.280
And so their origin story, going back to 1994,
link |
01:19:56.280
is that they interceded, they broke up a gang of criminals
link |
01:20:00.280
who were trying to rape people.
link |
01:20:03.280
And so there's a very interesting kind of like,
link |
01:20:06.280
emphasis on sexuality and on public morality
link |
01:20:10.280
and really being the core of like,
link |
01:20:12.280
we're going to restore order and public morality
link |
01:20:15.280
and how that translates into governance
link |
01:20:17.280
is something they've never sorted out.
link |
01:20:19.280
I mean, how do you run a banking system?
link |
01:20:21.280
If your intellectual priorities are really about the length of a beard
link |
01:20:25.280
and then their path to power and a kind of abstract sense.
link |
01:20:29.280
I mean, a lot of that was very much driven by,
link |
01:20:33.280
if you like, propagating the problems of martyrdom.
link |
01:20:37.280
And that sounds, I don't mean to say that in a way
link |
01:20:39.280
to make it sound ridiculous, to make it sound like it's,
link |
01:20:42.280
you know, a moral judgment.
link |
01:20:44.280
It's simply, I think a fact, it's a fact of their appeal
link |
01:20:47.280
that they promised young men who have known nothing else
link |
01:20:52.280
but studying in certain schools, if at all.
link |
01:20:56.280
But they've known fighting and they've known victimization.
link |
01:20:59.280
And this isn't, I'm not asking for like sympathy for them,
link |
01:21:03.280
but I think the reality is that a lot of the,
link |
01:21:05.280
we know about the kind of foot soldiers
link |
01:21:07.280
they lost families and bombings in air strikes, in night raids.
link |
01:21:14.280
You know, I mean, orphans have always been a stream
link |
01:21:18.280
living in all male society, not knowing girls,
link |
01:21:23.280
not knowing women, hearing things from outside
link |
01:21:25.280
about places like Kabul.
link |
01:21:27.280
And so there's always been this kind of urban, rural dimension.
link |
01:21:30.280
It's not just that, but I think there's a whole imagination
link |
01:21:35.280
that being Taliban captures.
link |
01:21:39.280
And the whole margin of things is really, it's,
link |
01:21:41.280
you know, I think to any religious person,
link |
01:21:44.280
I mean, it's not a bizarre idea.
link |
01:21:46.280
I mean, it animates, I mean, so many global traditions.
link |
01:21:52.280
But you try to tell like an army colonel,
link |
01:21:54.280
if you were to have a conversation with, you know,
link |
01:21:56.280
a U.S. Marine about this.
link |
01:21:58.280
I mean, some would get it from their own religious backgrounds,
link |
01:22:01.280
but I think it's an alien idea,
link |
01:22:04.280
but I think it's essential to kind of stretch
link |
01:22:06.280
our imagination to understand that's attractive.
link |
01:22:08.280
And now one of the dilemmas going forward is that
link |
01:22:11.280
they've got to pivot from martyrdom.
link |
01:22:14.280
And some have been, some have told foreign journalists,
link |
01:22:16.280
I mean, it's good that we're in charge now.
link |
01:22:19.280
We're going to build a proper state, but I,
link |
01:22:22.280
it's kind of boring.
link |
01:22:24.280
I want to keep fighting.
link |
01:22:25.280
I want to, maybe I'll do that in Pakistan.
link |
01:22:27.280
Yeah, I mean, it's nice that they are expressing that thought,
link |
01:22:30.280
some are not even honest, sufficiently with themselves
link |
01:22:33.280
and express that kind of thought.
link |
01:22:34.280
If you're a fighter,
link |
01:22:37.280
you see that with a bunch of fighters
link |
01:22:40.280
or professional athletes, once they retire,
link |
01:22:43.280
they don't know it's very, it's boring.
link |
01:22:47.280
And so like the spirit of the Taliban,
link |
01:22:51.280
even the best version of the Taliban is to fight,
link |
01:22:55.280
is to be martyrs, is to,
link |
01:22:57.280
and to paint the world as good and evil
link |
01:23:00.280
and you're fighting evil and all that kind of stuff.
link |
01:23:02.280
That's difficult to imagine how they can run
link |
01:23:04.280
an education system, a banking system,
link |
01:23:07.280
respect all kinds of citizens with different backgrounds
link |
01:23:11.280
and religious beliefs and women and all that kind of stuff.
link |
01:23:16.280
Yeah, and they've watched in Kabul and other major cities.
link |
01:23:20.280
Some are young, they didn't know those places,
link |
01:23:22.280
but also the very important obstacle for them
link |
01:23:26.280
is that African society has changed.
link |
01:23:28.280
I mean, it's not what, even for the older guys,
link |
01:23:31.280
it's not what they knew in the 1990s.
link |
01:23:33.280
Some always had some ambivalence about the capital,
link |
01:23:37.280
but now it's totally different.
link |
01:23:38.280
I mean, they've been shocked to see,
link |
01:23:39.280
I think to me, one of the most striking features
link |
01:23:42.280
of the last few weeks has been that women have come out
link |
01:23:45.280
on the streets and have stood in their faces and said,
link |
01:23:49.280
we demand rights, we demand education,
link |
01:23:51.280
we demand employment, and these foot soldiers
link |
01:23:55.280
are paralyzed, they're not sure.
link |
01:23:57.280
They don't know what to do with women, period.
link |
01:23:59.280
Yeah, and they don't know what to do with being yelled at
link |
01:24:02.280
and having someone stick their fingers in their faces.
link |
01:24:04.280
I mean, this is not what they've imagined.
link |
01:24:07.280
And so I think, and at this juncture,
link |
01:24:10.280
there are still foreign cameras around.
link |
01:24:12.280
So they have committed acts of violence against women,
link |
01:24:16.280
against journalists, they've beaten people,
link |
01:24:18.280
they've disappeared people.
link |
01:24:19.280
Even with cameras around, even in this tense period.
link |
01:24:22.280
Yeah, but I think that when the cameras retreat,
link |
01:24:24.280
and that's like it happened, it's gonna get much worse, I think.
link |
01:24:28.280
So the challenge now is, you know, can the Taliban rule?
link |
01:24:31.280
And then this is where the diplomacy is so important,
link |
01:24:35.280
because the Taliban can't rule in isolation,
link |
01:24:38.280
and they know that.
link |
01:24:39.280
And part of the success is due to the fact that they were,
link |
01:24:42.280
they became very good at talking to other people in the last,
link |
01:24:46.280
I mean, it's been building for the last decade,
link |
01:24:48.280
but I said the last five years,
link |
01:24:50.280
and they always had Pakistan's backing.
link |
01:24:52.280
And so the Taliban are, we noted they're a military force,
link |
01:24:55.280
very effective guerrilla force, they beat NATO.
link |
01:24:58.280
I mean, this still hasn't sunk in.
link |
01:25:00.280
I mean, the fact that they, with light arms,
link |
01:25:03.280
using suicide attacks, using mines,
link |
01:25:07.280
you know, improvised explosive devices, machine guns.
link |
01:25:12.280
And some, in recent years, they got sniper rifles,
link |
01:25:16.280
and you know, from the summer,
link |
01:25:18.280
they got American equipment on a broad scale, right?
link |
01:25:21.280
They have airplanes, they have a lot that
link |
01:25:23.280
they will be able to use eventually.
link |
01:25:26.280
So, but still, basically, it's a story of AK47s,
link |
01:25:30.280
some American small arms, and mines.
link |
01:25:33.280
So it's very Ho Chi Minh, very old school guerrilla fighting,
link |
01:25:37.280
right?
link |
01:25:38.280
And they defeated the most powerful military alliance
link |
01:25:40.280
in world history probably.
link |
01:25:41.280
So that has not yet sunk in,
link |
01:25:43.280
and what that means for American and global politics.
link |
01:25:46.280
And now they're trying to rule, right?
link |
01:25:49.280
They know they need international support.
link |
01:25:52.280
And their most consistent backer has been Pakistan,
link |
01:25:55.280
who sees them as an extension of Pakistani power.
link |
01:26:00.280
You know, and this is very important for a Pakistani elite
link |
01:26:02.280
that, of course, is looking toward India.
link |
01:26:05.280
They want to have their rear covered, right?
link |
01:26:08.280
They want to make sure that these postions
link |
01:26:10.280
don't cause trouble for Pakistan.
link |
01:26:12.280
And they like, I mean, for some of the security forces,
link |
01:26:15.280
they like this vision of the Islamic State
link |
01:26:17.280
that the Taliban are building there,
link |
01:26:19.280
because those are not so distant from their views
link |
01:26:22.280
of what Pakistan should be.
link |
01:26:24.280
But the Taliban have been smart enough
link |
01:26:27.280
to kind of diversify their potential international allies.
link |
01:26:30.280
So everyone in the neighborhood has wanted the US to leave, right?
link |
01:26:34.280
If we go back to 2001, there were Iranian and American
link |
01:26:37.280
special forces in the North working together against the
link |
01:26:40.280
Taliban to displace them using, you know,
link |
01:26:43.280
Iranian, American, and then Afghan resistance forces
link |
01:26:47.280
against the Taliban.
link |
01:26:48.280
And that was the real moment of repression.
link |
01:26:50.280
If we go back to the missed exits,
link |
01:26:54.280
the relationship with Iran could have been different
link |
01:26:56.280
at that moment.
link |
01:26:57.280
But the US under George W. Bush, you know,
link |
01:27:01.280
devised this axis of evil language,
link |
01:27:04.280
put them together with their enemy Iraq in the North Korea,
link |
01:27:08.280
all that went south.
link |
01:27:10.280
That was the most opportunity.
link |
01:27:12.280
But in recent years, the Taliban in Iran have kind of
link |
01:27:17.280
papered over the differences.
link |
01:27:19.280
They allowed the Taliban to open some offices on Iranian territory,
link |
01:27:24.280
likely share some resources, some intelligence,
link |
01:27:26.280
some sophisticated weaponry.
link |
01:27:28.280
And then the Taliban went to Moscow.
link |
01:27:30.280
And for the Putin administration, you know,
link |
01:27:33.280
they've long been worried that, you know,
link |
01:27:35.280
they see the Taliban as a kind of, you know,
link |
01:27:38.280
disease that will potentially move north.
link |
01:27:40.280
In fact, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
link |
01:27:42.280
Kurdistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan,
link |
01:27:44.280
and maybe creep into Russia's sphere of influence.
link |
01:27:47.280
Maybe that's why they have, you know,
link |
01:27:50.280
a bunch of troops sitting in Tajikistan.
link |
01:27:52.280
I mean, the one, you know,
link |
01:27:54.280
forward base that Russia also has in Central Asia is in Tajikistan.
link |
01:27:58.280
And so the Taliban were always, you know,
link |
01:28:00.280
a worrying point, but also useful because they could say,
link |
01:28:04.280
well, you know, in case the Taliban get out of control,
link |
01:28:08.280
we need to be here.
link |
01:28:09.280
And so Tajikistan said, okay, you know,
link |
01:28:12.280
you're helping, you're helping secure us.
link |
01:28:14.280
And yes, it impinges upon our sovereignty,
link |
01:28:16.280
but it's okay, you know.
link |
01:28:18.280
So Putin said, you know, let's, you know,
link |
01:28:21.280
give another black eye to the Americans.
link |
01:28:23.280
And let's, you know, treat the Taliban
link |
01:28:25.280
as if they're the kind of government in waiting.
link |
01:28:27.280
Let's have them go to Moscow multiple times.
link |
01:28:30.280
This summer, you know, for the last year or two,
link |
01:28:32.280
they've been talking to China, right?
link |
01:28:34.280
So the photographs of senior Taliban figures
link |
01:28:39.280
going from their office in Qatar,
link |
01:28:41.280
made your blow to the US back government.
link |
01:28:43.280
The fact that they were able to open up an office in Qatar,
link |
01:28:46.280
at one point began to fly a flag
link |
01:28:48.280
of the Islamic Emirate Afghanistan
link |
01:28:51.280
that basically said we're a state in the waiting.
link |
01:28:54.280
And as the US backed Afghan government failed
link |
01:28:57.280
and failed and failed at ruling too, right?
link |
01:29:00.280
As they showed how corrupt they were.
link |
01:29:02.280
And as they really alienated more and more Afghans
link |
01:29:04.280
by committing acts of violence against them,
link |
01:29:07.280
by stealing from them,
link |
01:29:09.280
by, you know, basically creating a kind of kleptocracy, right?
link |
01:29:17.280
The Taliban said we are pure, we are not corrupt.
link |
01:29:20.280
And look at us.
link |
01:29:21.280
We're winning on the battlefield internationally.
link |
01:29:23.280
Look, we're talking to China.
link |
01:29:25.280
We're talking to Putin.
link |
01:29:26.280
We're talking to China.
link |
01:29:27.280
Yeah.
link |
01:29:28.280
We're a legitimate powerful center of Central Asia.
link |
01:29:31.280
And also kind of, you know, hinting that, you know,
link |
01:29:33.280
we have a website.
link |
01:29:34.280
I mean, the whole digital angle is amazing
link |
01:29:36.280
because they began to,
link |
01:29:38.280
and this is important actually.
link |
01:29:39.280
They had a website which grew more and more sophisticated.
link |
01:29:43.280
Again, after having, you know, shop televisions
link |
01:29:45.280
and look at these kind of ceremonial killings
link |
01:29:47.280
of these infidels devices, right?
link |
01:29:49.280
They said we have a government.
link |
01:29:51.280
We have commissions.
link |
01:29:53.280
We have a complaint line.
link |
01:29:55.280
They lifted all this technocratic language
link |
01:29:57.280
that you get from any UN document, you know,
link |
01:30:00.280
about good governance and all that kind of, you know,
link |
01:30:02.280
generic language that the NGO world has produced for us,
link |
01:30:05.280
right, in English.
link |
01:30:06.280
They reproduced that in five languages
link |
01:30:08.280
on their top on website.
link |
01:30:10.280
And of course, I'm not saying you wouldn't believe this,
link |
01:30:12.280
but it was like, you know, just put me in coach.
link |
01:30:15.280
You know, I know the playbook.
link |
01:30:17.280
I know how to run a government.
link |
01:30:18.280
And look, we have an agricultural commission.
link |
01:30:20.280
We have, you know, a taxation system.
link |
01:30:24.280
And again, this idea, and then on the ground,
link |
01:30:26.280
they had their own law courts
link |
01:30:28.280
and they would creep into a district,
link |
01:30:30.280
assassinate some people, the local authority figures,
link |
01:30:32.280
men of influence, talk to local clerics,
link |
01:30:35.280
either get them on board or kill them,
link |
01:30:37.280
and say, you know, this state is corrupt,
link |
01:30:40.280
but we're bringing you justice.
link |
01:30:41.280
This is our calling card.
link |
01:30:42.280
We're bringing public reality and justice.
link |
01:30:44.280
And then to a broader world, they said, you know,
link |
01:30:48.280
yeah, things didn't go perfectly.
link |
01:30:49.280
The whole Al Qaeda thing, you know,
link |
01:30:51.280
you know, we should be kind of do over on that.
link |
01:30:54.280
We're not going to let anyone hurt you from our territory.
link |
01:30:58.280
We just want a rule and people like us and look.
link |
01:31:02.280
And so if you look in the neighborhood,
link |
01:31:04.280
Iran, even the Central Asian states after a while,
link |
01:31:07.280
recognizing they can make some money.
link |
01:31:09.280
I mean, one of the, one thing that aspects down likes
link |
01:31:11.280
about the current arrangement or they're not,
link |
01:31:13.280
they're not hostile to is that they have all these contracts.
link |
01:31:16.280
They can potentially make some money from, you know,
link |
01:31:20.280
the pipeline dream remains alive,
link |
01:31:22.280
running natural gas, oil to, you know,
link |
01:31:25.280
which is the Indian Ocean to markets, you know,
link |
01:31:28.280
beyond Central Asia.
link |
01:31:30.280
It's sitting on a couple of trillion dollars,
link |
01:31:32.280
probably in mineral resources that China would love to have,
link |
01:31:35.280
of course.
link |
01:31:36.280
And so people looking at Afghanistan now,
link |
01:31:38.280
after 20 years saying, you know,
link |
01:31:40.280
under American rule, it was a basket case, right?
link |
01:31:43.280
There was immense human suffering, incredibly violent.
link |
01:31:46.280
The world did not start counting civilian casualties
link |
01:31:48.280
in Afghanistan until 2009.
link |
01:31:50.280
I mean, think about that.
link |
01:31:51.280
The war went on for eight years.
link |
01:31:53.280
The Taliban were never really defeated.
link |
01:31:54.280
They just went to Pakistan.
link |
01:31:55.280
They went to the mountains, they went to the woods.
link |
01:31:58.280
And so all of these different American operations,
link |
01:32:01.280
as you noted, under Bush, Obama, Trump, and so on,
link |
01:32:07.280
killed countless civilians.
link |
01:32:09.280
The US never counted for that.
link |
01:32:10.280
We never, we never even counted.
link |
01:32:12.280
Trump escalated the civilian casualties
link |
01:32:15.280
by escalating the air war.
link |
01:32:17.280
But a lot of this was like very ugly on the ground,
link |
01:32:19.280
you know, night raid stuff,
link |
01:32:21.280
where you drop into a hamlet and, and massacre people.
link |
01:32:25.280
And then, you know, honest about what happened, right?
link |
01:32:27.280
So that dynamic continued to fuel the growth
link |
01:32:30.280
of the Taliban from below.
link |
01:32:32.280
So the foot soldiers, they never, they never ran out of foot soldiers.
link |
01:32:34.280
I mean, the US and its allies killed tens of thousands,
link |
01:32:38.280
maybe hundreds of thousands of Taliban fighters
link |
01:32:40.280
over the last 20 years.
link |
01:32:42.280
But they just sprouted up again.
link |
01:32:44.280
And part of that was the kind of solidarity culture,
link |
01:32:46.280
the male bonding of, of, of martyrology,
link |
01:32:49.280
of, you know, of martyrdom and of, and of, you know, revenge
link |
01:32:53.280
and a sense of, you know, the foreign invader.
link |
01:32:57.280
And I've heard, I mean, I've, you know, I haven't taught a ton
link |
01:33:00.280
of US military people, but through the Hoover,
link |
01:33:03.280
you know, they put officers in our classes sometimes
link |
01:33:05.280
and met a few wonderful, you know, army and,
link |
01:33:08.280
and Marine officers who I really enjoyed, you know,
link |
01:33:11.280
we came from the South like me, always had great rapport with them.
link |
01:33:14.280
And, and they expressed a range of opinions about this.
link |
01:33:17.280
I think that, you know, I learned a lot from someone who said,
link |
01:33:19.280
yeah, I mean, I get that, I get why they hate us.
link |
01:33:22.280
I get why they're still fighting because, you know,
link |
01:33:25.280
in the week we just killed 14 of their, you know, fellow villagers.
link |
01:33:31.280
So the officers, the guys on the ground, you know, fighting this war,
link |
01:33:36.280
we're not stupid about that.
link |
01:33:37.280
I mean, they, they got the human dimension of that.
link |
01:33:39.280
And yet no one got off the exit.
link |
01:33:41.280
As you said, people, people kept driving.
link |
01:33:43.280
But going forward now internationally, it's critical that they have,
link |
01:33:48.280
I mean, they've, they've had meetings.
link |
01:33:50.280
I mean, what the top line have done since August 15th is the
link |
01:33:53.280
diplomacy. They've had meetings.
link |
01:33:55.280
They've had people, they've had touch can't come.
link |
01:33:57.280
They've had Beijing come.
link |
01:33:58.280
They've had Moscow come.
link |
01:34:00.280
I mean, they've had major visits from Islamabad,
link |
01:34:05.280
from security people, from diplomatic circles.
link |
01:34:09.280
And they're counting on things being different this time.
link |
01:34:12.280
I mean, the first time around, the only people who backed the Taliban
link |
01:34:15.280
by recognition, giving them a diplomatic recognition
link |
01:34:17.280
were the Saudis, Pakistanis and the UAE.
link |
01:34:20.280
And because of al Qaeda, because of opium,
link |
01:34:24.280
because of some of the human rights stuff, you know,
link |
01:34:27.280
the U.S. pushed everyone to like, you know, let's not recognize the state.
link |
01:34:30.280
Even though the U.S. did, I mean, Colin Powell famously,
link |
01:34:33.280
you know, the summer of 2001, you know, we did give a few grants and aid
link |
01:34:39.280
to the Taliban as I kind of like massaging negotiations.
link |
01:34:44.280
They kept talking about bin Laden,
link |
01:34:46.280
but they also wanted them to stop opium production.
link |
01:34:49.280
I mean, Afghanistan throughout all this period we've talked about
link |
01:34:51.280
is the global center of opium production.
link |
01:34:54.280
I mean, over the years, more and more of the Afghan economy
link |
01:34:57.280
continued to today is devoted to the opium trade.
link |
01:35:00.280
Opium, which is the thing that leads to heroin,
link |
01:35:05.280
some of the painkillers.
link |
01:35:08.280
And even if Afghan poppies don't make it to Hoboken,
link |
01:35:13.280
they're not the source of American deaths, you know?
link |
01:35:18.280
They are part of a universal market, a global market,
link |
01:35:22.280
which, you know, I think any economist would tell you
link |
01:35:25.280
is part of the story of our opium, you know, problem.
link |
01:35:29.280
Something I read maybe a decade ago now,
link |
01:35:34.280
and I just kind of looked it up again to bring it up to see your opinion on this,
link |
01:35:38.280
is a 2010 report by the International Council on Security and Development
link |
01:35:44.280
that showed that 92% of Afghans in Helmand and Kandahar province
link |
01:35:52.280
know nothing of the 911 attacks on U.S. in 2001.
link |
01:35:56.280
Is this at all representative of what you know?
link |
01:36:00.280
Is this possible?
link |
01:36:01.280
So basically, put another way,
link |
01:36:04.280
is it possible that a lot of Afghans don't even know the reason
link |
01:36:11.280
why there may be troops or the sort of American provided narrative
link |
01:36:17.280
for why there's troops, American soldiers, and American drones overhead
link |
01:36:23.280
in Afghanistan.
link |
01:36:25.280
Right.
link |
01:36:26.280
I mean, my gut response, not knowing the details of this actual poll,
link |
01:36:31.280
is that that's a very unhelpful way to think about
link |
01:36:38.280
how Afghans relate to the world.
link |
01:36:41.280
And I think it could be, you know, if you go to my hometown in North Carolina,
link |
01:36:46.280
if you knock on some doors, you may meet people who don't know all kinds of things.
link |
01:36:50.280
I could probably walk around this neighborhood here in California,
link |
01:36:53.280
and there'd be all kinds of people who don't know all kinds of things.
link |
01:36:57.280
You know, Kyrie Irving apparently thinks the earth is flat.
link |
01:37:01.280
I mean, you know, so we could make a lot of certain kinds of ignorance,
link |
01:37:07.280
I think.
link |
01:37:08.280
But I think what I would say, and then there's also, I mean, a companion point,
link |
01:37:11.280
maybe, that in thinking about the withdrawal, the collapse, the return of the Taliban,
link |
01:37:16.280
there's been a big conversation about, you know, what Afghans think of us really.
link |
01:37:21.280
And this famous piece in The New Yorker was about how many people like the Taliban,
link |
01:37:28.280
you know, that many women interviewed supposedly in this piece, you know,
link |
01:37:35.280
were sympathetic as they lost family members and all the violence.
link |
01:37:38.280
And the idea kind of was that, you know, we haven't thought about that at all.
link |
01:37:42.280
And in fact, you know, of course, we have, and lots of people have.
link |
01:37:45.280
But I think if you're just dropping into the conversation,
link |
01:37:48.280
if you look at like an immediate arc of coverage of Afghanistan in the United States,
link |
01:37:51.280
I mean, the arc went from lots of coverage during, of course, 911 and it's aftermath.
link |
01:37:57.280
Lots of coverage during Obama's surge.
link |
01:38:00.280
And then quickly dropped down the last decade has been almost nothing.
link |
01:38:04.280
So if you ask the same question about Americans or other Americans,
link |
01:38:08.280
I'm not sure what they would say to you,
link |
01:38:09.280
what percentage would actually know why the US is in X, Y or Z either, right?
link |
01:38:13.280
But on the Afghan side, just to return to that for a moment,
link |
01:38:16.280
I think that, you know, we can fetishize these provinces.
link |
01:38:19.280
They are a kind of, you know, a place where Taliban support has been greatest.
link |
01:38:23.280
Also where there's been the most violence,
link |
01:38:25.280
where the Americans have been most committed to trying to root out the Taliban movement.
link |
01:38:30.280
Where, exactly in the south, in the south of Afghanistan.
link |
01:38:34.280
Yeah. And it's mostly Pashtun, not exclusively, but mostly Pashtun, you know, mostly rural.
link |
01:38:39.280
What is Pashtun?
link |
01:38:40.280
That's the other group, you know, that the Taliban claim to represent, right?
link |
01:38:44.280
So they are this group.
link |
01:38:45.280
What other groups are there?
link |
01:38:46.280
Yeah. Okay. Sorry. Yeah. Sorry.
link |
01:38:47.280
So in cities, you'll find everything, right, that is an Afghanistan.
link |
01:38:51.280
You'll find Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hazaras.
link |
01:38:55.280
These are people who, you know, Uzbek is a Turkic language, right?
link |
01:39:00.280
Most Uzbeks live in Uzbekistan, but they form majorities in some northern parts of the city.
link |
01:39:06.280
I'm sorry, of the country of Afghanistan.
link |
01:39:08.280
But what I emphasize is that, and you can find online an ethnographic map of Afghanistan,
link |
01:39:14.280
and you'll see green where Pashtuns live, red where Hazaras live,
link |
01:39:18.280
orange Uzbeks live, you know, purple where Tajiks live.
link |
01:39:22.280
And then there are a bunch of other smaller groups of different kinds.
link |
01:39:25.280
You know, there are Norsanis, there are Baluch.
link |
01:39:30.280
There are different religious communities.
link |
01:39:32.280
There are Sunni Shia, different kinds of Shia.
link |
01:39:34.280
What are the key differences between them?
link |
01:39:36.280
Is it religious basis from the origins of where they immigrated from?
link |
01:39:41.280
And how different are they?
link |
01:39:43.280
Yeah. So they're all, I mean, they're all indigenous, I think.
link |
01:39:46.280
I mean, there's a kind of mythology that some groups have been there longer, right?
link |
01:39:49.280
So they have a greater claim to power, but historically, I mean, it's like, you know,
link |
01:39:54.280
at the groups anywhere, people have different narratives about themselves.
link |
01:39:58.280
But many, many Pashtuns would tell you, not all, but many would say,
link |
01:40:03.280
we are the kind of state builders of Afghanistan.
link |
01:40:05.280
The dynasty that ruled much of the space that was born in the mid 18th century,
link |
01:40:11.280
that ruled until 1973, more or less, generalizing, you know, was a Pashtun dynasty.
link |
01:40:18.280
The Taliban have definitely said to some audiences, we are the rifle rulers
link |
01:40:23.280
because we are Pashtun.
link |
01:40:26.280
The trick though is, I don't mean to be evasive, but just to get evasive on the complexity,
link |
01:40:31.280
one quick answer as well, there are majorities and minorities.
link |
01:40:34.280
I mean, one finds that a lot along with those maps.
link |
01:40:37.280
But I would say suspend any firm belief in that because that could be entirely wrong.
link |
01:40:43.280
In fact, there's never been a modern sense of Afghanistan.
link |
01:40:47.280
So when journalists say Pashtuns are a majority, or they're the biggest group,
link |
01:40:51.280
I would say not so fast.
link |
01:40:53.280
I would say not so fast because of migration is one major issue.
link |
01:40:57.280
No major modern census.
link |
01:41:00.280
Actually, the Soviets got pretty close, but didn't quite, you know,
link |
01:41:03.280
find something comprehensive and didn't publicize it,
link |
01:41:05.280
knowing that it was, you know, in modern times,
link |
01:41:08.280
ethnicity can be the source of political mobilization.
link |
01:41:11.280
It's not, it's not innately so, but it's been part of the story.
link |
01:41:15.280
There's a lot of mixed families, right?
link |
01:41:17.280
So a lot of people you'll meet, you'll encounter in the diaspora and around.
link |
01:41:20.280
I mean, well, I am, you know, my one parent is Tajik, one is Pashtun, right?
link |
01:41:26.280
Or I'm Pashtun, as I mentioned before, but I don't speak Pashto, right?
link |
01:41:30.280
Or I am Hazara, but you read about us as Shii Hazaras.
link |
01:41:35.280
In fact, I'm a Suni Hazara, or I'm a secular Hazara, or I'm an atheist Hazara.
link |
01:41:39.280
I mean, everything's possible, right?
link |
01:41:42.280
And one of my friends, if he were here, he'd say, I'm Kabuli, you know, I'm from Kabul.
link |
01:41:49.280
So if you think about it in Russian terms, you know, it means a lot.
link |
01:41:52.280
If you're a Moskvich, you know, if you're from Pizder or Moskva, I mean, you know.
link |
01:41:57.280
Yeah, well, even here, there's Bostonians, Texans, Californians.
link |
01:42:04.280
Yeah, East Coast, West Coast, all that stuff.
link |
01:42:07.280
Those are all part of the mix here.
link |
01:42:09.280
You ask about Kandahar and Helmand, and I would say, yeah, if you go out to, you know, a pomegranate, you know, field,
link |
01:42:17.280
you'll meet a guy who may reckon time differently from you and me, who may not be literate,
link |
01:42:24.280
he may not have ever had a geography lesson.
link |
01:42:27.280
But if you go one door over, you may meet a guy who, you know, his life path is taking him to live in, you know, six countries.
link |
01:42:38.280
And he may speak five languages.
link |
01:42:40.280
And these are all things I'm not saying they're all these are just because people have money can go fly around.
link |
01:42:44.280
I mean, they're people who are displaced by war from late 1970s, right?
link |
01:42:48.280
Even already in the early 70s, people were traveling by the tens of thousands to Iran, you know, as labor migrants.
link |
01:42:55.280
And once you get to Iran, once you get to Pakistan, once you get to Uzbekistan,
link |
01:42:59.280
you then connect to all kinds of cosmopolitan cultures.
link |
01:43:02.280
In fact, I think one of the themes of the book, you know, that you may have read, it may put you to sleep, you know,
link |
01:43:08.280
Afghanistan Modern was about, you know, conceptualizing Afghanistan as a cosmopolitan place where
link |
01:43:12.280
for centuries, people went on the move and trade in this area.
link |
01:43:15.280
You think of, you know, I think this mischaracterization of places like Helmand and Konhar, you know, you fly in,
link |
01:43:21.280
or you're part of a marine battalion, and you see people there and they look different.
link |
01:43:26.280
And I think in our imagination, if I can generalize, you know, they look like they've been there for millennia, right?
link |
01:43:33.280
The dress or whatever, right? You think of technology, you think of the mud compounds and so on.
link |
01:43:38.280
You think of, you know, animal drawn transportation, that kind of stuff, right?
link |
01:43:43.280
Or the motorbike, right? At most is what they have.
link |
01:43:46.280
But in fact, if you follow those families, their trade is taking them to Northern India for centuries, right?
link |
01:43:52.280
Their trade is connected them to cosmopolitan centers.
link |
01:43:56.280
You know, say they have a scholar in the family, that scholar may have studied all of the Middle East, South Asia, right?
link |
01:44:01.280
You know, their ancestors may have been horse traders who went all the way to Moscow, right?
link |
01:44:05.280
I mean, we have the historical records of all these people traveling across Eurasia, pursuing all kinds of livelihoods.
link |
01:44:12.280
And so Afghanistan is this paradox of visually looking remote and looking like it's kind of stuck in time.
link |
01:44:19.280
But the family trajectories and the current trajectories are astoundingly cosmopolitan and mobile.
link |
01:44:25.280
And so, and a conception of being a world center is also quite strong.
link |
01:44:30.280
So, you know, another way to frame that question about like, do they know about 911 would be like, why should we know about 911?
link |
01:44:37.280
Because we are at the center of something important, right?
link |
01:44:39.280
We are the center of Asia. We are the heart of Asia.
link |
01:44:42.280
We have a kind of historic greatness.
link |
01:44:44.280
We are, you know, a proud culture of our own achievements, right?
link |
01:44:49.280
So we're not worried about that, right?
link |
01:44:51.280
That said, I mean, sure, there are different narratives about why Americans are there, why people are being killed.
link |
01:44:57.280
You know, of course, you'd find, you know, they want to convert us.
link |
01:45:01.280
You know, they want our gold, they want our opium, they want X, Y, and Z, right?
link |
01:45:06.280
There was a recent story about a Taliban official sitting in an office in Kabul and a journalist asked him, can you find in this rotating globe, find your country?
link |
01:45:16.280
Where are we sitting right now?
link |
01:45:18.280
And he was filmed not being able to do it.
link |
01:45:21.280
And so a lot of, you know, racefiscated Africans in the diaspora were saying, you know, haha, look at this.
link |
01:45:26.280
And that exists.
link |
01:45:27.280
I mean, I think I could go to my Stanford classroom and there'd be a lot of kids who wouldn't know where Afghanistan is too, right?
link |
01:45:33.280
But I wouldn't use those metrics to suggest that this is a place that doesn't have a sense of its place in the world and of geopolitics.
link |
01:45:42.280
I think if anything, being a relatively small country in a very complicated neighborhood, I mean, everybody, every cab driver.
link |
01:45:48.280
I mean, people have a, I mean, you know, this is where America is different because I don't think Americans have this sense.
link |
01:45:54.280
You know, we're talking about Moscow stuff.
link |
01:45:56.280
You know, Moscow cab drivers, I think a lot of them are going to tell you, like, what's happening in the world and why, right?
link |
01:46:04.280
And it's just part of, it's part of their thing, right?
link |
01:46:07.280
You can find that in Ghana, you can find that in Mexico City, right?
link |
01:46:09.280
You find that lots of places.
link |
01:46:10.280
So I think Africans are part of a very sophisticated kind of mapping of the world and where they fit in.
link |
01:46:17.280
And a lot of them, remarkably, he had done it firsthand, which is what struck me so much.
link |
01:46:21.280
And, you know, really, my experiences from the 1990s in Tashkent places that these guys had already lived in more countries than I've ever been.
link |
01:46:28.280
They already knew half those languages.
link |
01:46:30.280
I mean, this one friend's Russian was impeccable.
link |
01:46:33.280
And of course, it helped.
link |
01:46:34.280
They had Russian girlfriends.
link |
01:46:36.280
They had, you know, they mixed with the police.
link |
01:46:38.280
They had run ins.
link |
01:46:39.280
I mean, this wasn't something you got from a book, right?
link |
01:46:42.280
This was like hard knock life.
link |
01:46:44.280
I mean, one friend was from a wealthy family in this trading diaspora and he was imprisoned.
link |
01:46:50.280
I mean, they sent him to prison in Pakistan.
link |
01:46:53.280
And he talks about how he could start like running the jail, you know, taking cigarettes to people, doing little things and kind of, you know, these are not stories of like, oh, I went to Harvard and so I'm so learned because of this.
link |
01:47:06.280
I mean, it's a whole range of experiences.
link |
01:47:08.280
The interesting thing is the survey is a survey and it doesn't reflect ignorance, as you're saying, perhaps.
link |
01:47:18.280
But it may reflect a different geopolitical view of the world than the West has.
link |
01:47:25.280
So if, you know, for a lot of the world, 911 was one of the most important moments of recent human history.
link |
01:47:35.280
And for Afghanistan to not to know that, especially when they're part of that story, means they have a very different, like there could be a lot of things said.
link |
01:47:46.280
One is the spread of information is different, the channels of the way information is spread.
link |
01:47:52.280
And two, the things they care about, maybe they see themselves as part of a longer arc of history where the bickering of these superpowers that seem to want to go to the moon are not as important as the big sort of arc that's been the story of Afghanistan.
link |
01:48:12.280
That's an interesting idea, but it's still a bit if at all representative of the truth, it's heartbreaking that they're not do not see themselves as active player in this game between the United States and Central Asia, because they're such a critical player.
link |
01:48:37.280
And I feel in obviously in many ways get the short end of the stick in this whole interaction with occupation, you know, invasion of Afghanistan for many years and then this rushed with withdrawal of troops and now the economic collapse and it's sad in some ways.
link |
01:49:03.280
I mean, you know, another way to put it is this. I mean, yeah, there's a range of knowledge and you're right, the information flows are are peculiar to geographies and histories and stuff.
link |
01:49:14.280
And I think that you're plucking out one sample from some fairly remote area from one like follow that follow the agriculture products. I mean, this is where, you know, I think urban rule divides used to mean a lot more in the 19th century, right? So a lot of like nuts and bolts of histories about conceiving of these kinds of distinctions, you know, but I think that if one has the privilege of traveling a bit, you see that like
link |
01:49:39.280
urban areas are fed by rural hinterlands. And if you look, think of who actually, you know, brings the bread, the milk, you know, pomegranates and so on. It creates these networks and then, you know, mobility channels, information and so on.
link |
01:49:55.280
But yeah, but your broader point about like the tragedy of this, I guess if I can quote a brilliant student of mine, an Afghan American woman who just received her PhD, who's now, you know, doctor, he's a great scholar, you know, we've done several events now trying to just think through what's
link |
01:50:11.280
happened. And before she's very emotionally affected by it. And she continues to ask a really great question. If I can get her phrasing right, you know, if you think of the cycle of like the top on being empowered 2001, in the way in which that affected women in particular, you know, half African half
link |
01:50:27.280
of the society, right? Then you think of this 20 period of violence and, and, you know, missed exits, right, and repeated tragedy, that also created a space I mean it created a space for a whole generation, it created a sense of space for people to
link |
01:50:43.280
realize something new. And I think so we have to attend to the, the dynamism of the society, right? So yeah, this happened in mostly Kabul, other big cities, Mazar Sharif, Harat, and Kandahar. But you can't limit your analysis to that because things like radio,
link |
01:50:59.280
television, everyone got a TV channel. There's a wonderful documentary called Afghan Star that I recommend to your listeners and viewers that it's about a singing show, a singing contest show. But you see just just personally things about like connections. I mean,
link |
01:51:11.280
it's a, it's a show by an independent, you know, television network that did drama, it did, it did kind of infomercials for the government and huge American investment in it. So it wasn't politically neutral, but it did talk shows, did all this kind of stuff. But at the singing
link |
01:51:25.280
show that became, you know, incredibly popular, modeled upon the British American, you know, American Idol kind of stuff, you know, and you can vote. So it had a kind of democratic practice element. But it's fascinating to see that, you know,
link |
01:51:37.280
people hooked up generators to televisions and watch this, you know, you think of like literacy rates, literacy rates are imperfect. And, you know, people who study, you know, medieval modern Europe, talk about how, yeah, no one could read, and there weren't many books. But if someone had a book, it'd be read
link |
01:51:57.280
aloud to a whole village potentially, or gathering. So there was, you know, some of these metrics don't get what people actually receive as information or exposure, because there's the magnifying power of open spaces and hearing radio and group settings,
link |
01:52:11.280
seeing television group settings, having telephone, you know, cheap telephones, which then become an access point to the world and social media, right. So all this stuff swept across African society as it did elsewhere, you know, in the last decade or more.
link |
01:52:27.280
So African society became, you know, in important ways, really connected to everything going on. And so you see that reflected politically and what people wanted. So you had some people, obviously, back to return to the Taliban. Some people wanted the status quo, but increasingly many more people wanted
link |
01:52:42.280
something else. And one of the great failures was to expose people to democracy, but only give them the rigged version. And so the US, in the State Department in particular, continued to double down on faked elections for the parliament and for the presidency in
link |
01:52:57.280
Afghanistan. What kind of elections? Faked, fraudulent elections for parliament and for president in Afghanistan, again and again, from the very beginning. And those elections were partly theater for the US, like for remaining on the road that you're describing, right, for not deviating, for
link |
01:53:15.280
not exiting because we were building democracy there. In reality, the US government knew it was never really building democracy there. It was establishing control. And elections were one means to gather control, right. But then you had on the ground, especially my young people, going to university,
link |
01:53:31.280
having experiences that were denied to them before, they took these problems seriously. So part of the disillusionment that we see today is that they believe what the US told them that they're constructing democracy. And of course,
link |
01:53:45.280
you know, cynics like us may have been thinking, well, you know, you're not really doing that. You're backing fraud. They believed it when they were younger. And now they're actually smart enough to understand that it's a farce. Yeah. But and so indirectly had the consequence of actually working.
link |
01:54:00.280
And that it taught the young folks over a period of 20 years, young folks to believe that democracy is possible and then to realize what democracy is not. Exactly. Beautiful side. Beautiful side. And so, but now look at us. Now it's, you know, it's now November.
link |
01:54:17.280
And so this whole period, and I wouldn't say like, you know, I wouldn't cast the last 20 years, if you're looking at all the achievements, you know, I wouldn't put them in an American tally sheet like this, something we should pat ourselves in the back for.
link |
01:54:32.280
I think that much has happened actually against what the Americans wanted. I mean, that the kind of free thinking, democracy wanting, I mean, even like, you know, we could point it on the religious, go back to the religious sphere. I mean, the African religious landscape became very pluralistic.
link |
01:54:49.280
Lots of young people wanted a different kind of secular politics. But the old, the old guard who wanted the saddest quo and wanted something that they'd fought for 1980s tended to still get American backing as the political elites who still tended to monopolize political power.
link |
01:55:06.280
So also it was happening in different ways. I mean, the Americans established this American University of Afghanistan, which is I think one of the best things the US did there. And I regret that the US didn't fund 20 more, you know, sprinkling them across the country, making them accessible to people.
link |
01:55:21.280
Because it was, you know, again, it wasn't an engine of Americanization. It was just opportunity. And so the thirst for higher education is really extraordinary. It was never never really met the US tended to put money in primary education, which much of that too was was fraudulent.
link |
01:55:37.280
So you have all this interesting dynamism, you have, you know, the arts, you have a critical space. I mean, I call it a public sphere in the classic European sense, you know, the Africans made of their own. And again, it wasn't Americanization, it wasn't imposed.
link |
01:55:51.280
It's something that Afghans built across generations, but really with a firm foundation among youth, who wanted, importantly, a multi ethnic Afghan society, you asked about Pashtuns and that kind of stuff. And a lot of that language in recent years was they were aware that the US backed government was playing
link |
01:56:10.280
ethnic politics and trying to kind of put people in the blocks and mobilize people based on their ethnic identity. And there was a younger cohort of people who said, you know, we are Afghan. And then there's interesting social media stuff where people would say I am Hazara, but I'm also Tajik,
link |
01:56:26.280
I'm also Uzbek. I mean, it was a way of creating a multi ethnic Afghan national identity that embraced everything. I mean, very utopian, you know, super utopian, right. But symbolically, it's very important that they've rejected being mobilized politically, you know, voting as a Hazara or voting is
link |
01:56:44.280
whatever. And of course, there were communities who wanted to, you know, vote as that ethnic community. But there are also people who said, you know, let's put a kind of civic nationalism first, one that accommodates ethnic pluralism in a way that rejected a kind of
link |
01:56:58.280
majoritarian politics of a one ethnic group dominating the thing. So all this stuff was quite interesting. I mean, women were serving themselves in across multiple spheres. Of course, it remained patriarchal. Of course, there's struggles. Of course, there's violence. Of course, you know, there's no utopia.
link |
01:57:14.280
But the door and all that shut in on August 15. So to go back to the quote that I wanted to offer from the student now professor, was it, you know, in trying to make sense of this, you mentioned the tragic arc here.
link |
01:57:31.280
You take the 20 years, like she asked, you know, why did you go to war in our country? Basically, why did you do this to us for 20 years when this was never about us? And you never asked us if you wanted to come. You never asked us what you wanted to build here.
link |
01:57:46.280
You didn't ask us when you were coming and you didn't ask us when when you're leaving. You just did this all on your own. And we tried to make the most of it. And then you pulled the rug out from under us, you know, at the 11th hour, and returned returned to power.
link |
01:58:00.280
Partly by diplomacy. It wasn't, at the end, just a military loss. I mean, it was a series of diplomatic decisions. I mean, the idea you asked about alternatives. I mean, giving up background, I mean, holding to the timeline. I mean, the Biden people did not need to hold to the Doha agreement that Trump
link |
01:58:16.280
assigned. I mean, every American president writes his or her own foreign policy, right? So the Biden administration acted as if they tried to convince us that their hands were tied. And that it was either this or 20 more years of war or some absurd kind of, you know, false alternative.
link |
01:58:35.280
And so, but I think that's important for American audiences to hear that, you know, they're like, you came to here to experiment. You came here to punish, you came here to kind of reassert your dominance, the world stage, you know, to work out the fear and and hurt of 911 that we talked about, which was
link |
01:58:54.280
so real, you know, impalpable. And it's important for American politics since then. Like you did, you worked out your problems, you know, on us, on our territory. And now what do we have for it? You know, and then the people who who had a stake in that system, imperfect as it was, have been desperate to leave.
link |
01:59:13.280
And so this, I don't know how much people are aware of this, but, you know, I'm a scholar, I work in California, you know, I have friends, I edited a journal on Afghanistan, and, you know, but I'm not a politician, I'm not a soldier.
link |
01:59:26.280
But people assume that, you know, Afghans have been desperately trying to reach me and anyone who is kind of on the radar as an American to help get them out. You know, that's kind of like, you know, the symbol of voting with your feet, you know, is quite powerful.
link |
01:59:42.280
I mean, they, there's a huge swath of society that doesn't want the system, and is literally living in terror about it. Naturally, women, you know, I mean, especially women of a certain age, I mean, they, they feel like their lives are over.
link |
01:59:54.280
I mean, there is an epidemic of suicide. They feel betrayed. And, and some people have done some good things and getting people out, you know, I mean, some, you know, the US military vets have been, you know, at the forefront of working to get out people, you know, that they, you know,
link |
02:00:11.280
they owe. But the US government doesn't want these people. I mean, they have created all these obstacles to, to allowing a safety valve for people to leave.
link |
02:00:24.280
Looking forward, from a perspective of leadership, how do we avoid these kinds of mistakes? So, obviously, some interests, some aspects of human nature led to this war.
link |
02:00:36.280
Yeah.
link |
02:00:37.280
How do we resist that in the future?
link |
02:00:40.280
I guess, beyond my moral and intellectual capacity, I'll just say this, I mean, looking at, again, looking at it from, you know, my home ground is the university. And I think of the, the intellectual, you know, ways of, ways of thinking that, that students should develop for themselves as citizens, right?
link |
02:00:58.280
Maybe that's where to start is like, historical thinking. I mean, these are all, and I try to tell people, you know, if you want to do robotics, computer science, you'd be a doctor, whatever.
link |
02:01:08.280
You should study history.
link |
02:01:09.280
Yeah. I mean, you don't have to be an historian like me. And it's, you know, my job isn't perfect. My profession is deeply flawed, right? But as I get older, I'm like, they're fewer and fewer historians actually like, you know, want to hang out with and stuff.
link |
02:01:20.280
So it's like, I'm not offering myself as like a model for anything. But, you know, whether you're a, you know, you carry the mail or you're a brain surgeon, whatever. I mean, I think it's, it's a way of civic engagement and the way of like, you know, ethical being in the world that we need to familiarize ourselves with.
link |
02:01:34.280
Because in, if you're an American or if you're from a rich country, you know, you need to be aware of your effect on a, on an interesting world. You can't, you can't say anymore that you don't know or care what's happening in Afghanistan or really circle the globe and point of place.
link |
02:01:49.280
I mean, we're all connected and we're all, we have ethical obligations. That's one place to start. I would just say this, and this is a lot for a self critique. And that is so much my teaching and like the themes of my research have been about empire, you know, how
link |
02:02:03.280
big states work not only on big territories like the Russian Empire and Soviet Union and stuff, but the way in which power often, you know, is projected beyond those boundaries in ways that we don't see.
link |
02:02:13.280
So this is where things like neoliberalism or just, you know, if you want to take capitalism or just things that, you know, the idea of humanity or of liberalism or of humanitarianism.
link |
02:02:24.280
The ideas that move beyond state boundaries are all things that we think about as affecting power in some ways that, that often harm people, right?
link |
02:02:33.280
So I think part of, as I've seen my job so far is to think about, you know, building upon the work of my people in grad school and, you know, scholars have affected me.
link |
02:02:42.280
I mean, you know, we're all concerned with how power works and its effects and trying to be attuned to understanding things that aren't visible, right?
link |
02:02:50.280
That we should be thinking about, that should be known to us. And as scholars, we can hopefully play some useful role in showing effects that aren't, you know, obvious initially.
link |
02:03:00.280
So empire is a framework to think about this. And so you think about invading foreign countries. Obviously, if you're a scholar of empire, you've seen what that looks like.
link |
02:03:09.280
And that's horrific, right? You look at things like racism as one of the ideological pillars of empire.
link |
02:03:16.280
You know, that's horrific. It must be critiqued. It must be, you know, we must be educated against.
link |
02:03:21.280
Some of the, you know, gender exploitation of empire is also something to highlight, you know, to rectify and so on.
link |
02:03:27.280
You know, to be moral beings, we need to think about past inequality and the legacies of violence and destruction that live on, I mean, living in the Americas.
link |
02:03:36.280
I mean, look at, you know, we're all on stone land. We're all in the sense living with the fruits of genocide and slavery and all those things that are hard to come to terms with, right?
link |
02:03:46.280
But the last few months in Afghanistan and thinking about empire, I think, made me more humble when I read people who say, to put it simply, have taken some joy in this moment, saying like,
link |
02:04:00.280
well, the Americans got kicked out of Afghanistan. You know, if you're against empire, this is a good thing.
link |
02:04:06.280
This is a kind of victory of anti colonial.
link |
02:04:10.280
You could see from the perspective of Afghanistan that America is not some kind of place that has an ideal of freedom and all the kind of things that we American tell ourselves.
link |
02:04:21.280
But it's more America has the ideal of empire, that there's one place that has the truth and everybody else must follow this truth.
link |
02:04:31.280
And so from a perspective of Afghanistan, it could be a victory against this idea of centralized truth of empire.
link |
02:04:39.280
That's another way to tell this story. And then in that sense, it's a victory.
link |
02:04:43.280
And in that sense also, I mean, you push back against this somewhat, this idea of Afghanistan as the graveyard of empires.
link |
02:04:54.280
Right.
link |
02:04:55.280
And I'll say this, I mean, it's, I mean, I'm a critic of empire.
link |
02:04:59.280
I mean, colonialism is a political phenomenon that stays with us.
link |
02:05:04.280
And I think we need scholars to point to the way in which it still works and still does harm.
link |
02:05:11.280
But it's part of being an empire that you can just get up and leave a place, right?
link |
02:05:15.280
That you can remake its politics on one day.
link |
02:05:19.280
And then because it fails to advance your agenda at one moment, you simply walk away.
link |
02:05:25.280
I mean, you know, we can point to other moments.
link |
02:05:27.280
I mean, 1947 on the subcontinent, you know, the way that the British withdrew played a significant role in mass violence, you know, that the company partition.
link |
02:05:39.280
It wasn't all the actions of the British that, you know, dictated that, right?
link |
02:05:44.280
There were lots of actors who chose to pick up, you know, the knife to kill their neighbor and so on.
link |
02:05:49.280
I mean, there's lots of agency in that moment as there is now in what's happening in Afghanistan.
link |
02:05:54.280
But I think the, the capriciousness, I mean, the, the, the ability to act is if you're, you're political decisions about other people's lives.
link |
02:06:05.280
You know, or something that can be made, you know, in secret, they can be made willy nilly.
link |
02:06:11.280
They really are beyond the accountability, you know, of, of those who are actually going to live with the consequences of shifting the cards on a deck in a way that decides who rules and who doesn't.
link |
02:06:23.280
I would love to hear your conversation with somebody I just talked to, which is Neil Ferguson, who argues on the topic of empire.
link |
02:06:30.280
That you can also zoom out even further and say, weigh the good and the bad of empire.
link |
02:06:37.280
And he argues, I think he gets a lot of flak for this from other historians that like the British empire did more good than bad in certain moments of history.
link |
02:06:50.280
And that's an uncomfortable truth.
link |
02:06:52.280
There's like levels, it's a cake with layers of uncomfortable truths, and it's not a cake at all because none of it tastes good.
link |
02:07:00.280
Right. I mean, I would continue to disagree with that.
link |
02:07:03.280
For instance, I'm still, I'm still working out where I am.
link |
02:07:06.280
And what this moment does to kind of, I think qualify, qualify my understanding of the past into, I think in a moment of humility, you know, I do, and I'm probably, I'm probably reacting to the kind of, you know, as you put it.
link |
02:07:18.280
I mean, the idea that this is like a good thing that American power has been defeated here.
link |
02:07:23.280
I mean, I do think American power should contract.
link |
02:07:25.280
And I don't think, and again, if I had to create a tally sheet of what the Americans did in the US, I mean, I mentioned the American University of Afghanistan, right?
link |
02:07:35.280
It could have done that without invading the country and killing people.
link |
02:07:38.280
But if, you know, I'm not, I've not now become an apologist for empire. I'm not, I'm not now a mini, not a person, but, you know, ending empire is, I mean, it does, how you, does it, as soon as you make or in some ways a continuation of imperial hubris, right?
link |
02:07:57.280
So you're not really out of empire yet.
link |
02:07:59.280
You're not really contracting empire for those who are living it, you know.
link |
02:08:03.280
But I think it's also, I mean, maybe I put it this way, it's be careful what you ask for, you know, I mean, I wanted, I wanted the US out of Afghanistan.
link |
02:08:11.280
But I wanted there to be a political settlement. I wanted, you know, I wanted my cake and I wanted to eat it too, right?
link |
02:08:18.280
I wanted all kinds of things to be different, right?
link |
02:08:20.280
But why is going to Afghanistan even needed for that? You can play all those games of geopolitics without ever invading and taking ownership of the place.
link |
02:08:29.280
It feels like the war.
link |
02:08:31.280
Yeah. I mean, it feels like, I mean, I'm not exactly sure what military force is necessary for, except for targeted, intense attacks.
link |
02:08:41.280
It feels like to me, the right thing to do after 9 11 was to show what was a display of force unlike anything the world has ever seen for a very short amount of time, targeted at, sure, a terrorist at certain strongholds and so on.
link |
02:08:59.280
And then in and out, and then focus on education, on empowering women into the education system, all those kinds of things that have to do with supporting the culture, the education, the flourishing of the place.
link |
02:09:16.280
That has nothing to do with military policing, essentially.
link |
02:09:21.280
But I mean, I think, yeah, if you look at it through that lens, I mean, if any Afghanistan and then invading Iraq didn't end Al Qaeda, it didn't end terrorism, right?
link |
02:09:33.280
It didn't really deflate these ideologies entirely.
link |
02:09:38.280
There were, if you like, you could say there were, you know, some limited discrediting of certain kinds of ideas.
link |
02:09:47.280
But in fact, I mean, look at the phenomenon of suicide bombing. I mean, it spread. I mean, it was never an Islamic thing. It was never, you know, a Muslim thing.
link |
02:09:56.280
Some Muslims adopted it in some places, but the circumstances of knowledge about how to do these kind of things only expanded with the insurgencies that emerged in Afghanistan and Iraq, and then they kind of became connected.
link |
02:10:07.280
They became to the president. I mean, Islamic State is, it's the best thing that happened to the Taliban ever because it's on the basis of its supposed newsstands as a counterterrorism outfit that it will get recognition from all its neighbors.
link |
02:10:22.280
It will get recognition from Russia. I mean, already with the evacuation of the airport, the United States was collaborating with the Taliban against Islamic State and openly talking about the Taliban as if they were partners in the security operation.
link |
02:10:35.280
So, and then Al Qaeda remains present in Afghanistan. So.
link |
02:10:39.280
Trillions of dollars spent.
link |
02:10:41.280
Yeah.
link |
02:10:43.280
The drones up above bombing places that result in civilian death, the death of children, the death of fathers and mothers, and those stories, even at the individual level, propagate virally across the land, creating potentially more terrorists.
link |
02:11:01.280
And a cynical view of the trillions of dollars is the military industrial complex where there's just a momentum where after 9 11, the feeling like we should do something led to us doing something.
link |
02:11:18.280
And then a lot of people realizing they can make money from doing more of that something. And then it's just a momentum where no one person is sitting there, getting a cat in an evil way, saying we're going to spend all of this money and create more suffering and create more terrorism.
link |
02:11:36.280
There's just something about that momentum that leads to that. And it to me, honestly, I just I'm still a sucker. I believe in leadership. I believe in great charismatic leaders and the power of that want to do evil and to do good.
link |
02:11:51.280
Yeah.
link |
02:11:52.280
And it felt like I honestly put the blame on George Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden for lack of leadership.
link |
02:12:03.280
Yeah, definitely.
link |
02:12:05.280
And yeah, there is the military industrial complex component, which is huge. And there's also, I mean, speaking of government leadership, it's also, I'd say the imbalance of power within Washington. I mean, the Pentagon use this moment.
link |
02:12:20.280
The whole beginning in 2001, I think to assert its authority at the expense of other institutions of national government. I mean, the State Department diplomacy has become a shadow of what it was once capable of doing.
link |
02:12:35.280
And of course, I mean, other historians, US historians, which I'm not firmly a story of the United States, but we can go back to talk about Vietnam. We talk about lots of Cold War and post Cold War engagements.
link |
02:12:47.280
And I think, you know, we need a reckoning about how the United States uses military power, you know, why we devote so much to our military budget and what could be available to us if we had a more sensible view of the value of military power of its effectiveness.
link |
02:13:02.280
And I think we need to hammer home that this is a defeat. I mean, I think there should be accountability. And if you, and this could be a kind of opening for a kind of bipartisan conversation, because if you are a kind of American militarist, I mean, you have to look at the leadership that got you to a place where you were defeated by men wearing sandals firing a K47s, right?
link |
02:13:25.280
Yeah, there should be a humility with that. I mean, we should actually say that we like literally the
link |
02:13:33.280
Oh, we lost. You say we lost. It wasn't just, you know,
link |
02:13:36.280
The American military lost.
link |
02:13:40.280
Yeah. And I feel I have very mixed feelings and, you know, it's, I don't know a ton of veterans, but, you know, I've mentioned I've taught my share and have a student now and, you know, they are, they're suffering because they look at the sacrifices that they made that I didn't make.
link |
02:13:54.280
I mean, American society to make the sacrifices. I mean, men and women lost limbs. They lost eyes. They lost lives. You know, there's been this, of course, quiet, evidently of suicide among, among veterans.
link |
02:14:07.280
And I, I've heard some stories the fact that the State Department is seeing a similar surge of suicides because they see their adult lives work collapse.
link |
02:14:19.280
They've seen their relationships. I mean, they've seen, they were seeing phone calls in the middle of the night from people who they entrusted with their lives, who they know are going to be targeted.
link |
02:14:28.280
I mean, some have already been killed. They've seen the, I mean, I think just, I'd imagine just ideologically and professionally what they believed in and what they, what they sacrificed for has vanished.
link |
02:14:41.280
And I think that's a, that's, that's bad. I mean, historically, thinking of some of the precedents you were thinking of, I mean, if you think of, you know, first of all, you know, at a human level, I feel horrible for those people who, you know, may not have agreed with everything they had done and their choices
link |
02:14:56.280
in life, but I respect the fact that many good people went out of, you know, the best intentions as young people to, to do the right thing and make things right. And I respect that. And I've met enough to know that there were people who saw the gray and complexity and
link |
02:15:12.280
that's, you know, all you can hope for. But we don't want a generation of disillusioned veterans. You know, if we look at the other post war moments, and this is kind of a post war moment where, you know, I think we need a conversation with American veterans about, about what they've gone through and what they're feeling.
link |
02:15:31.280
And they have, they saw skin in the game, you know, because their personal connections and their, and their histories and also going to be future leaders. I mean, veterans already.
link |
02:15:40.280
People who have served are often great men and women. That's, that's true. And you know, throughout history, whether you sacrifice, you served in fighting World War II and fighting Vietnam, that's going to mold you in different ways.
link |
02:15:58.280
That's going to mold how you are as a leader that leads this country forward. And so you have to have an honest conversation about what was the role of the war in Afghanistan, the war in the Middle East, the war on terror in the history of America.
link |
02:16:18.280
You just look at the context at the end of this 21st century, how we're going to remember this and how that's going to result in our future interactions with small and large countries with China or some proxy war with China, with Russia or some proxy war with Russia.
link |
02:16:36.280
What's the role of oil and natural resources and opium and all those kinds of things? What's the role of military power in the world? And now with COVID, you know, it's like, it's almost like the, because of the many failures of the US government and many leaders in science and politics to respond effectively and quickly
link |
02:17:05.280
to COVID, we kind of forget that we fumbled this other thing too. And it's hard to know which is going to be more expensive. They seem to be symptoms of something of a same kind of source problem.
link |
02:17:26.280
Of leadership, of bureaucracy, of the way information and intelligence flows throughout the US government, all those kinds of things. And that hopefully motivates young leaders to fix things.
link |
02:17:38.280
Right. Definitely. I mean, I think if there's one theme that jumps out to me and thinking about this moment, I mean, if we recognize that we live in a kind of crisis of democracy in the United States and in other countries that have long been proud of their democratic traditions.
link |
02:17:51.280
If we see them be under assault from certain quarters, I think military defeat is yet another addition to all the aspects of this that you mentioned. I mean, the fact of military defeat is a giant match that you're throwing on this fire, potentially.
link |
02:18:05.280
If we think of its legacies and other post war environments, when the veteran angle is one, when you have people who feel betrayed, I mean, they have been fodder for the far right and other settings. I mean, interwar Europe is very much about mobilizing dissolution veterans in the name of right wing fascist politics.
link |
02:18:26.280
I mean, if one thinks too of this moment of really increasing xenophobia, our immigration debate is now talking about whether or not Afghans should be permitted at all in the United States after 20 years.
link |
02:18:39.280
I think immediately they're sponsored in Europe, which I thought to some extent, you know, focusing on Germany, because it was really ramping up deportations of Afghans leading up this collapse. And now they have been, you know, a lot of right wing center right politicians in Germany have been watching all this with an eye to using it to their
link |
02:19:02.280
advantage for a domestic German audience to say, you know, in the context of recent elections that, you know, we're the party who will defend you against these Afghans are going to be coming from this.
link |
02:19:12.280
So, you know, what I've tried to emphasize in talking to different groups about this moment is that it won't be confined to Afghanistan or even the region. I mean, obviously, malnutrition, hunger will send Afghans to neighboring states.
link |
02:19:23.280
But where the European right is resurgent, this has been a gift, right, to say that the Afghans are coming, they're brown skinned, they're Muslim, they're uneducated, they're going to want your women.
link |
02:19:35.280
And they will take, you know, the odd sexual assault case or the odd, whatever, dramatic act of violence that, you know, happens numerically in any population. And they will magnify that to say that, you know, our far right group is going to save the nation.
link |
02:19:52.280
And what I tried at the main point I wanted to speak of leadership was that I think the serial, well, there were many, many carnal sins, if you like, but if you go back to our analogy of all the exits, I mean, what blocked some of those exits was an absence of truth and transparency and the lying.
link |
02:20:10.280
I think that this is no secret anyone has followed this, but we've allowed, and you think that's the general mistrust of government, mistrust of authority across the board of professors, of economists, of scientists, doctors, right?
link |
02:20:27.280
I think that's the hopeful thing to me about the internet is the internet hates inauthenticity. They can smell bullshit much better. And I think that motivates young leaders to be transparent and authentic. So like, the very problems we've been seeing, this kind of attitude of like,
link |
02:20:47.280
of authority where, oh, the populace, they're too busy with their own lies. They're not smart enough to understand the full complexities of the things we're dealing with. So we're not going to even communicate to them, the full complexities.
link |
02:21:01.280
We're just going to decide and then tell them what we decided and conceive some kind of narrative that makes it easy for them to consume this decision.
link |
02:21:13.280
And as opposed to that, I really believe I see there's a hunger for authenticity of when you're making decisions, when you're looking at the rest of the world and trying to decide, untangle this complexity.
link |
02:21:27.280
And the internet, the public, the world wants to see you as a leader struggle with the tension of these ideas to change your mind, to recognize your own flaws and your own thinking from a month ago. All that, the full complexity of it also acknowledged the uncertainty as with COVID, also with the wars.
link |
02:21:50.280
I think there's a hunger for that. And I think that's just going to change the nature of leadership in the 21st century.
link |
02:21:56.280
I hope so. I think, you know, all the things you highlighted, I mean, accountability is part of that, right? I mean, we need, you know, honesty, openness, and then, you know, acknowledgement of mistakes, humility is the key to all learning, right?
link |
02:22:08.280
But also, I mean, you think just the headline from yesterday, the horrible drone strike, which was really the last kind of American military action on the day that the US was, I think, mostly departing from Kabul, wiped out an entire family, mostly children.
link |
02:22:25.280
You know, the US acknowledged that, yes, this was not the ISIS bombing outfit that they thought it was. But yesterday, they did a quick review. I'm not an expert on drone strikes and aftermath, but those of you who are more closely said it was basically
link |
02:22:40.280
whole cloth taken from what the US government has been saying after all these strikes, you know, reproducing the same language and basically pointing to technical errors, but denying that there were any procedural mistakes or flaws, or it was just kind of, you know, they found little ways of acknowledging
link |
02:23:01.280
things that goes plan, but, you know, we follow the policies essentially. And, you know, that's it. It's not a crime. It's the way of not even saying, you know, we screwed up. And it's kind of the legalese that suddenly makes a war crime, not a war crime, you know, and that,
link |
02:23:20.280
that is, I feel like, are feasible to take accountability. I think people are really sick of that. Yeah. In a way where the opposite is true, which is they get excited for people who are not, for leaders who are not that.
link |
02:23:35.280
Right. And so there's, they're not going to punish you for saying, I made a mistake. Yeah. Yeah.
link |
02:23:41.280
I just had a conversation with Francis Collins, the director of NIH, and part of my criticism towards Anthony Fauci has been that it's like such subtle, but such crucial communication of mistakes made.
link |
02:23:58.280
If you make a small mistake, it is so powerful to communicate. I think we messed up. We thought this was true. Yeah. And it wasn't. So the obvious thing there was with masks early in the pandemic.
link |
02:24:12.280
There's so much uncertainty. It's so understandable to make mistakes or to also be concerned about what kind of hysteria different statements you make lead to just being transparent about that and saying we were not correct in saying the thing we said before.
link |
02:24:28.280
It's so powerful to communicate, to gain trust. And the opposite is true. When you do this legalese type of talk, it destroys trust. And again, I really think the lessons of recent history teach us how to be a leader and teach young leaders how to be leaders.
link |
02:24:53.280
And so I have a lot of hope. Yeah. Good. Partially thanks for the internet. Yeah. Yeah. That's great. Yeah. No humility. I mean, we need humility, accountability, honesty.
link |
02:25:04.280
And yes, studying the past is an important way to do that. I mean, to learn from past mistakes. And obviously there's always inspiration and courage. And we can take some kind of assistance from that too.
link |
02:25:14.280
But also learning from learning how not to do things, right? And then analogies are never like one to one. I mean, we talk about Vietnam. I mean, I think many Vietnam veterans would say, this is like deja vu.
link |
02:25:28.280
You know, I mean, there's the story, the visuals of the Kabul Airport and of the Saigon embassy. We're not the same, but close enough that people would juxtapose them. All of us right now. But I would just ask people that, you know, overanalogizing is also, you know, a kind of path down, making errors of judgment and comparison and then sameness.
link |
02:25:50.280
But it's stretch. I mean, like 911 itself, I think the idea that people lack the imagination within our security apparatus to think this was even possible, right? And you think of the simplicity of having a $10 lock on a cockpit door, you know, could have wanted all this.
link |
02:26:06.280
And again, I'm not saying out of the time or hindsight that I am on mission about all this. But, you know, I just been living in Germany the year before. And there was a plot there. This guy was hatching from Germany to blow up the mausoleum of Otterswerk in Ankara with an airplane.
link |
02:26:23.280
And so if you kind of dig, you know, it wasn't unimaginable that you would use an airplane as a weapon. And the Bush was fishing up saying, no one had ever heard of this. Who would do this? Well, not a lot of people do this. And then, you know, at that very moment, my wife was teaching the Joseph Conrad novel Secret Agent, which was about a conspiratorial organization that wanted to bomb.
link |
02:26:46.280
Actually, in retrospect, it was kind of suicide bombing, because I think they tricked this guy into doing it, but they wanted to bomb the Greenwich Observatory for some obscure political purpose.
link |
02:26:57.280
So that's an instance in which, you know, the novel, right, to go back to our kind of humanities pitch, right? That is my point was that, you know, as you mentioned, we need humanity, transparency, but also imagination, right?
link |
02:27:10.280
And part of expanding our imagination is by, you know, I mean, obviously delving into your fields, you know, of engineering and the sciences and robotics and artificial intelligence and all that rich landscape.
link |
02:27:21.280
And then, but also we find this in film, poetry, literature, I mean, just the kind of stretching that that we need to do to really educate ourselves more fully, right, across the, across the spectrum of everything humans need to imagine, to reimagine security.
link |
02:27:37.280
You know, so much what we talked about today, I mean, so much of, you know, our security is affected by others perception of their insecurity, right?
link |
02:27:46.280
Which unleashes a whole web of emotions.
link |
02:27:49.280
Can you tell me about the Afghan people, what they love, what they fear, what they dream of for themselves and for their nation? Is there something to say, to speak to, to the spirit of the people that may humanize them and maybe speak to the concerns and the hopes they have?
link |
02:28:11.280
Yeah, I think I, you know, as an outsider, I hesitate to make any grand statement, but I would say listen, I mean, there are a number of documentary films that are incredibly rich that will offer your listeners and viewers a snapshot.
link |
02:28:26.280
So there is Afghan Star, you know, which really brings you to the homes of a set of people who, you know, they want to start them.
link |
02:28:34.280
They're artists, they want to express themselves. Some want to push political boundaries, cultural boundaries. There's a woman who gets into hot water for dancing.
link |
02:28:42.280
But, you know, you realize that, I mean, people, I mean, they love art, they love music, they love poetry, they love expression.
link |
02:28:50.280
You know, people want to care for their children, they want safety to families, they want to enjoy what everyone enjoys, you know, I think it's very humanizing portrait.
link |
02:29:00.280
There's another great documentary film called Love Crimes of Kabul, which is a great snapshot of the post 2000 world that the Americans shaped a lot of ways.
link |
02:29:11.280
And it's about a women's prison. And it's incredibly revealing because it's about young girls and what they want.
link |
02:29:19.280
Well, not just young, but young teenage and then some middle age people who were accused of moral crimes, ranging from homicide, which one moment it gets to, to having such relations outside of marriage.
link |
02:29:33.280
And so it shows in a way continuity with the previous Taliban regime and that women are imprisoned for things that you wouldn't be imprisoned for elsewhere.
link |
02:29:42.280
And that Islamic law operates as the kind of judicial logic for these, for these punishments.
link |
02:29:49.280
But in letting these women kind of speak for themselves. I mean, it's fascinating.
link |
02:29:53.280
I mean, I don't want to give too much away, but women make ranging choices in this film that land them in this predicament.
link |
02:30:00.280
So they don't all profess innocence. Some are like, I'm guilty, but they're guilty for reasons.
link |
02:30:06.280
In one case, one woman is guilty. She's in prison because it's a way to exert pressure on her fiance to finally marry her.
link |
02:30:13.280
So you get ethnicity, you get kind of Romeo and Juliet things where their families don't like each other necessarily, but they find each other.
link |
02:30:21.280
You have questions of love, money, clothing, furniture. It's beautiful.
link |
02:30:28.280
I mean, the parts with it, I remember showing it in class. There was a wonderful Afghan student who was, I think, a Fulbright at school in Stanford.
link |
02:30:36.280
And she's a genius. She's amazing.
link |
02:30:38.280
It was awkward for her because talking about young women having sex and stuff, and it was just, it wasn't, you know, the snapshot of Afghanistan that she wanted.
link |
02:30:46.280
And obviously there's so much more where they're great writers and, you know, musicians and, I mean, you know, music is a huge thing.
link |
02:30:52.280
I mean, poetry, all these things are great.
link |
02:30:55.280
So she found it, you know, I hear you. I mean, it's kind of a taboo subject.
link |
02:30:59.280
But I thought the American students singing it really identified with these women because they're just so real.
link |
02:31:05.280
And so, you know, young people trying to find like, I mean, relationships that are universal in circumstances that are very difficult.
link |
02:31:14.280
Love. Love is universal.
link |
02:31:16.280
Yeah, yeah. So it's, I mean, we do have resources to humanize. I mean, you know, some of your people will know Khaled Hussaini, you know, he's an African American.
link |
02:31:23.280
He's done his stuff, but there are, there are a number of novelists and short story writers who do cool things.
link |
02:31:30.280
And I think that another tragic aspect of this moment is that those people have now pretty much had to leave the country.
link |
02:31:36.280
So there's a visual artist I would highlight for you named Khadim Ali is a Hazara based in Australia.
link |
02:31:45.280
He does extraordinary work in blending a tradition of Persian miniatures with contemporary political commentary.
link |
02:31:55.280
His work is between Australia and Afghanistan, but he also he had to flee.
link |
02:31:58.280
I mean, he was doing some work in Kabul, but it's a extraordinary kind of visual language that he's adapted that has been shown all over the planet now.
link |
02:32:07.280
He's got some of his work is in New York galleries is in Europe.
link |
02:32:10.280
He's been shown in Australia, but he talks about migration.
link |
02:32:13.280
In a way that puts Afghans and Hazaras at the center, but it's totally universal about, you know, our modern crisis of, of all the mains people who were displaced across our planet.
link |
02:32:25.280
And he attempts to kind of speak for some size of them in a way that like everyone can get.
link |
02:32:31.280
I mean, the visual imagery experts will know that it's from, you know, like the, the Shahnameh, like an ancient Persian, you know, epic that Iranians were attached to that Afghans are attached to that people can quote, you know,
link |
02:32:42.280
at length that has mythical figures of good and evil that kids grow up embodying their names, the names of the characters that are.
link |
02:32:50.280
It's called, you know, the Book of Kings, the heroes and villains are the staple of conversation and poetry.
link |
02:32:57.280
And, you know, like Russians, I mean, the kind of the resort to literary references and speak is something that, you know, Americans don't do.
link |
02:33:06.280
Western countries don't do, but the fact that everyone's got to know this character, everyone has this reference, the wordplay, the linguistic finesse in multiple languages is, you know, a major value of Afghan storytelling.
link |
02:33:20.280
As an outsider, I'm scratching at the surface of the surface.
link |
02:33:25.280
Yeah, but there's a depth to it, just like it is fascinating.
link |
02:33:28.280
The layers, yeah.
link |
02:33:29.280
The layers of Russian language that's.
link |
02:33:31.280
Exactly.
link |
02:33:32.280
It's like the culture, I've been struggling and this is kind of the journey I'm embarking on to convey to an American audience what is lost in translation between Russian and English.
link |
02:33:48.280
And it's very challenging in some of the great translators of the CS gift Tolstoy of Russian literature struggle with this deeply and they work.
link |
02:33:58.280
It's an art form just to convey that and it's amazing to hear that I've got to stand with a full mix of cultures that are there have the same kind of wit and humor and depth of intellect.
link |
02:34:10.280
I mean, the humor thing is that that's, you know, I'm so much our visual imagery is about like this sad place and Dower and everything.
link |
02:34:16.280
I mean, socially, again, I'm going to engage in some stereotypes about generalization stuff, but just the, you know, the Afghan friends and I have come to be closer to really love.
link |
02:34:26.280
I mean, the, the humor, there's so much there of common common stuff of like, when I go to Ireland, it's one of my favorite places and just like the, I feel a sense of pressure like the humor all around me.
link |
02:34:38.280
I feel like there's something between iron, like Ireland and Russia with the humor stuff where it's like you've got to be on your game if you want to be, you know, so it's.
link |
02:34:47.280
Yeah, it's like, you know what I mean?
link |
02:34:49.280
The intensity of conversation in terms of, yeah, you have to be on your game in terms of wit and so on. I mean, you have to, there's certain people I have like when I talked on this podcast, they're like that.
link |
02:35:00.280
Certain people from the Jewish tradition have that.
link |
02:35:03.280
Totally.
link |
02:35:04.280
Like what the wit is just like, okay, I have to, oh yeah, I really have to pay attention.
link |
02:35:08.280
Yeah.
link |
02:35:09.280
It's a game.
link |
02:35:10.280
It's like, you know what it feels like?
link |
02:35:12.280
It feels like speed chess or something like that.
link |
02:35:14.280
And you really have to focus and play.
link |
02:35:17.280
And at the same time, there's body language in the, and then there's a melancholy nature to it, at least in the Russian side.
link |
02:35:23.280
Yeah.
link |
02:35:24.280
The whole thing is just a beautiful mess.
link |
02:35:25.280
Yeah.
link |
02:35:26.280
I mean, there's a funny TikTok video that went around it that I got from like some Afghan acquaintances that was a, that he's an Irish comedian, kind of highlighting, you know, kind of Irish and German national stereotypes around hospitality.
link |
02:35:39.280
And this Afghan moment is that, you know, I didn't know that the Irish were just white Afghans because the whole like, you know, hospitality, like politics of like a refusal, you know, you, you know, you don't, you don't take something that's offered you the first time.
link |
02:35:52.280
You don't, I mean, it's the, the culture of, of receiving a guest, you know, that's, you know, Americans aren't, I mean, that's not, you know, that's not always, I mean, the different, the regional cultures or that's the thing, there's whatever, but it's, I mean, the, the kind of like generosity and the kind of, you know,
link |
02:36:08.280
that's, that's real.
link |
02:36:09.280
I mean, that's, and that's a cool thing.
link |
02:36:11.280
And that's amazing.
link |
02:36:12.280
That's, you know, the food, I mean, going on with just the superficial things, but the, but all of that, the warmth of hospitality and, of wit and humanity.
link |
02:36:22.280
I mean, it's, that's what we don't see viewing the place just through war and geopolitics and the moving pieces of the map and stuff.
link |
02:36:29.280
And that's, and that's hard to see when, you know, there are gaps in language and religious tradition and all that stuff.
link |
02:36:35.280
And then, you know, being open to the fact that people do, do things differently.
link |
02:36:40.280
You know, and it's, and the gender dimension there is important, right?
link |
02:36:43.280
They're, they're kind of, you know, arguably each culture has a kind of gender, gender.gen make this different.
link |
02:36:48.280
And so I think it's helpful to have humility and thinking that some Africans will do something, something's different, differently.
link |
02:36:54.280
You know, but then you'll also have Afghans who say everyone should be educated.
link |
02:36:59.280
Everyone should work and so on and so on.
link |
02:37:01.280
So there's no, there's no single way of, yeah.
link |
02:37:03.280
And there is a gender dynamic in Russia too.
link |
02:37:05.280
We need to be respectful of that.
link |
02:37:07.280
And that's not, that's not always what it looks like at first.
link |
02:37:09.280
Yeah, exactly.
link |
02:37:10.280
There's layers.
link |
02:37:11.280
That's where power is. I mean, that's definitely, I don't know.
link |
02:37:13.280
Yeah.
link |
02:37:14.280
Yeah. That's a whole other conversation where the power is.
link |
02:37:17.280
Yeah.
link |
02:37:18.280
Rumi, the 13th century Persian poet who was born on the land that is now Afghanistan.
link |
02:37:23.280
Is there something in his words that speaks to you about the spirit of the Afghan people?
link |
02:37:30.280
I mean, everyone owns Rumi.
link |
02:37:32.280
I guess that's gonna get me in trouble with certain Afghan fans of Rumi who want to see
link |
02:37:37.280
him as an Afghan.
link |
02:37:38.280
I would say, are they proud of Rumi?
link |
02:37:42.280
Yeah.
link |
02:37:43.280
Do they see him as an Afghan?
link |
02:37:44.280
Yeah.
link |
02:37:45.280
I mean, it depends.
link |
02:37:46.280
I mean, some people will be militant and say, you know, the Iranians can have him.
link |
02:37:51.280
He's ours.
link |
02:37:52.280
But they also say, you know, he's, I mean, you can say, again, he's like a Rorschach blood.
link |
02:37:58.280
He's a Sufi. He's a Muslim. He's a Central Asian. He's Iranian. He's Afghan. He's a Turk.
link |
02:38:05.280
I'm trying to think of the analogy, but he's something special to everyone.
link |
02:38:09.280
So I guess I would not walk into that conversation and claim that he's one or another.
link |
02:38:12.280
But it's a cool thing.
link |
02:38:13.280
I mean, it's the, but I'm glad you brought that up because that's a good way of seeing
link |
02:38:17.280
something that Afghans, I mean, we live in our countries in Afghanistan and say, okay,
link |
02:38:23.280
Rumi is everyone, you know, Madonna helped make a famous in the United States, you know,
link |
02:38:27.280
they used to sell stuff at Starbucks.
link |
02:38:29.280
And that's all complicated and embarrassing.
link |
02:38:32.280
And his, his translations are very much disputed where you have people be like, there's some
link |
02:38:36.280
awful Rumi translations.
link |
02:38:37.280
And there are, there are also a lot of, speaking of the internet, there are lots of fake Rumi
link |
02:38:42.280
quotes.
link |
02:38:43.280
Yes.
link |
02:38:44.280
You know, like Rumi said, always be your best.
link |
02:38:46.280
We didn't say that.
link |
02:38:47.280
You know, that was, you know, I mean, that's kind of stuff.
link |
02:38:49.280
But the cool thing is like the, I mean, I think you can read Rumi as a religious thinker,
link |
02:38:55.280
but you can also, you know, read Rumi as a, you know, in an Islamic sense, but you can
link |
02:39:01.280
also read him as a kind of spiritualist, right?
link |
02:39:03.280
As someone who, or an ethicist or moralist.
link |
02:39:05.280
And so I think that's, I like the, the lens of Rumi as a gateway to Afghan ecumenicism
link |
02:39:12.280
and cosmogenism, you know, the theme I keep emphasizing of, of meeting actual Afghans who
link |
02:39:18.280
were actually, you know, fluent in Russian, fluent in German, fluent Turkish, they know
link |
02:39:24.280
Pashto, they've gone to university or sometimes they haven't.
link |
02:39:29.280
And yet, I mean, they're, I like the category of the popular intellectual, you know, the
link |
02:39:35.280
intellectual who isn't, isn't formally educated necessarily.
link |
02:39:38.280
Although of course that's represented too, especially increasingly now with this generation
link |
02:39:41.280
of going to university all over the world, you know, Stanford, MIT, everywhere.
link |
02:39:45.280
Afghans are war reps into there.
link |
02:39:47.280
But just being, I don't have any kind of worldly knowledge that is not limited to a province
link |
02:39:53.280
to a village to a hamlet.
link |
02:39:55.280
But it sometimes is, but sometimes it's not because of, again, not because of some fairytale
link |
02:40:02.280
story of curiosity wanting to globe out of, you know, some sense of privilege, but out of
link |
02:40:10.280
necessity out of survival of having to adapt.
link |
02:40:12.280
And it's really extraordinary that, I mean, also let me think about like professions of
link |
02:40:16.280
like, you know, as an Afghan, you know, what does he or she do for a living?
link |
02:40:22.280
And what have they done in the past?
link |
02:40:24.280
I mean, the answer is one gets shoe salesman, tax cop drivers, surgeons, all in one guy.
link |
02:40:31.280
Yeah.
link |
02:40:32.280
I mean, that's not just Afghan, but that's, you know, that's very common.
link |
02:40:36.280
But it's also Russia is the same.
link |
02:40:38.280
That's right.
link |
02:40:39.280
Whenever there's complexities to the economic system and the short term and the long term
link |
02:40:44.280
history of how the country develops.
link |
02:40:46.280
And it's basically the people figuring out their way around a mess of a country politically,
link |
02:40:54.280
but a beautiful, flourishing culture and humanity.
link |
02:40:59.280
And that creates super interesting people.
link |
02:41:02.280
So we can often see, okay, there's Taliban, there's war, there's economic malfunction,
link |
02:41:09.280
there's harboring of terrorists, there's opium trade, all that kind of stuff.
link |
02:41:13.280
There's humans there with deep intellectual lies.
link |
02:41:18.280
And I love the movie Love Crimes and the same kind of hopes, fears and desire to love the
link |
02:41:26.280
old Romeo and Juliet story.
link |
02:41:28.280
And I think Rumi to me represents that the wit, the intelligence, but also the just eloquent
link |
02:41:37.280
and just beautiful representation of humanity of love.
link |
02:41:41.280
Some of the best quotes about love are from him, half of them fake, half of them real.
link |
02:41:48.280
The best ones are real.
link |
02:41:49.280
The best ones are real.
link |
02:41:50.280
The best ones are real.
link |
02:41:51.280
Robert, this is an incredible conversation.
link |
02:41:54.280
Thank you for the tour of Afghanistan and making me, making us realize that there's much
link |
02:42:04.280
more to this country than what we may think.
link |
02:42:09.280
It's a beautiful country and it's full of beautiful people.
link |
02:42:13.280
You made me think about a lot of new things too.
link |
02:42:15.280
So it was definitely, definitely great for all mine too.
link |
02:42:17.280
So thank you so much.
link |
02:42:19.280
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Robert Cruz.
link |
02:42:21.280
To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description.
link |
02:42:25.280
And now let me leave you with some words from Winston Churchill.
link |
02:42:29.280
History will be kind to me for I intend to write it.
link |
02:42:35.280
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.