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Garry Kasparov: Chess, Deep Blue, AI, and Putin | Lex Fridman Podcast #46


small model | large model

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The following is a conversation with Gary Kasparov.
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He's considered by many to be the greatest chess player of all time.
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From 1986 until his retirement in 2005, he dominated the chess world,
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ranking world number one for most of those 19 years.
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While he has many historical matches against human chess players,
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in the long arc of history, he may be remembered for his match against the machine,
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IBM's Deep Blue.
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His initial victories and eventual loss to Deep Blue captivated the imagination of the world,
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of what role artificial intelligence systems may play in our civilization's future.
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That excitement inspired an entire generation of AI researchers,
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including myself, to get into the field.
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Gary is also a pro democracy political thinker and leader,
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a fearless human rights activist and author of several books,
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including How Life Imitates Chess, which is a book on strategy and decision making.
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Winter is Coming, which is a book articulating his opposition to the Putin regime,
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and Deep Thinking, which is a book on the role of both artificial intelligence
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and human intelligence in defining our future.
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This is the Artificial Intelligence Podcast.
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If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube, give it five stars on iTunes,
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support it on Patreon, or simply connect with me on Twitter.
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Alex Friedman spelled F R I D M A N.
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And now here's my conversation with Gary Kasparov.
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As perhaps the greatest chess player of all time,
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when you look introspectively at your psychology throughout your career,
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what was the bigger motivator, the love of winning or the hatred of losing?
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Tough question.
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I have to confess I never heard it before, which is again,
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congratulations, it's quite an accomplishment.
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Losing was always painful.
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For me, it was almost like a physical pain because I knew that if I lost the game,
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it's just because I made a mistake.
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I always believed that the result of the game had to be decided by the quality of my play.
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Okay, you may say it sounds arrogant, but it helped me to move forward
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because I always knew that there was room for improvement.
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Was there the fear of the mistake?
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Actually, fear of mistake guarantees mistakes.
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And the difference between top players at the very top is that
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it's the ability to make a decision without predictable consequences.
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You don't know what's happening.
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It's just intuitively, I can go this way or that way.
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And there are always hesitations.
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People are like, you are just at the crossroad.
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You can go right, you can go left, you can go straight.
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You can turn and go back.
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And the consequences are just very uncertain.
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Yes, you have certain ideas what happens on the right or on the left
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or just if you go straight, but it's not enough to make well calculated choice.
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And when you play chess at the very top, it's about your inner strength.
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So I can make this decision.
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I will stand firm and I'm not going to waste my time
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because I have full confidence that I will go through.
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Going back to the original question is, I would say neither.
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It's just it's the it's lawful winning, hateful losing.
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There were important elements, psychological elements, but the key element,
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it's the I would say the the driving force was always my passion
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for for making a difference.
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It's just I can move forward and I can always it's I can always enjoy
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not just playing, but creating something new, creating something new.
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How do you think about that?
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It's just finding new ideas in the openings, you know, some original plan in the middle game.
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It's actually that helped me to make a transition from the game of chess
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where I was on the very top to to another life where I knew I would not be number one.
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I would not be necessarily on the top, but I could still be very active
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and productive by my ability to make a difference by influencing people,
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say, joining the democratic movement in Russia or talking to people
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about human machine relations, there's so many things where I knew my influence
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may not be as decisive as in chess, but still strong enough to help people
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to make their choices.
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So you can still create something new that makes a difference in the world outside of chess.
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But wait, you've kind of painted a beautiful picture of your motivations
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of chess to create something new to look for those moments of some brilliant new ideas.
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But were you haunted by something?
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See, you make it seem like to be at the level you're at.
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You can get away without having demons without without having fears
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without being driven by some of the darker forces.
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I mean, you sound almost religious, you know, darker forces, spiritual demons.
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I mean, do you have a call for a priest?
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So I'm dressed like this.
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Now, just let's go back to these crucial chess moments
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where I had to make big decisions.
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As I said, it's, you know, it was all about my belief from very early days
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that I can make all the difference by playing well or by making mistakes.
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So the, yes, I always had an opponent across the chess board, opposite me.
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But no matter how strong the opponent was, whether he just ordered a player
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or another world champion like Anatoly Karpov,
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I having all respect for my opponent, I still believe that it's up to me to make the difference.
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And I, you know, I knew I was not invincible.
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I made mistakes.
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I made some blunders and, you know, with age, I made more blunders.
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Okay, good.
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I knew it.
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But it's still, you know, it's very much for me to be the size of factor in the game.
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I mean, even now, look, I just, you know, my latest chess experience was horrible.
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I mean, I played Karoana, Fabi Karoana.
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It's number two, number two, number three player in the world these days.
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We play this 960 with the fish or so called fish or random chess reshuffling pieces.
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Yeah, I lost very badly, but it's because I made mistakes.
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I mean, I had so many winning positions.
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I mean, 15 years ago, I would have crushed him.
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So, and it's, you know, while I lost, I was not so much upset.
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I mean, I know, as I said in my interview, I can fight any opponent,
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but not my biological clock.
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So it's fighting time is always a losing proposition.
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But even today at age 56, you know, I knew that, you know, I could play great game.
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I couldn't finish it because I didn't have enough energy or just, you know,
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I couldn't have the same level of concentration.
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But, you know, in a number of games where I completely outplayed one of the top less in the world,
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I mean, gave me a certain amount of pleasure.
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That is, even today, I haven't lost my touch.
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Not the same, you know, okay, the jaws are not as strong and the teeth are not as sharp.
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But I could get him just, you know, almost, you know, on the ropes.
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Still got it.
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Still got it.
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And it's, you know, and it's, I mean, it's my wife said it well.
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I mean, she said, look, Gary, it's somehow, it's something you're just fighting by your biological clock.
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It's just, you know, maybe it's a signal because, you know, the goddess of chess,
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since you spoke great or deep religious, the goddess of chess, Keisha,
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maybe she didn't want you to win because, you know, if you could beat number two,
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number three player in the world, I mean, that's, that's one of the top players who just recently played
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World Championship match.
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If you could beat him, that would be really bad for the game of chess.
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But just what people will say, oh, look, the game of chess, you know, it's, it's, it's not making any progress.
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The game is just, you know, it's, it's totally devalued because the, the guy coming out of retirement,
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you know, just, you know, winning games, maybe that was good for chess, not good for you.
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But it's, look, I've been following your logic.
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We should always look for, you know, demons, you know, superior forces and other things that could, you know,
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if not dominate our lives, but somehow, you know, play a significant role in, in, uh, the outcome.
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Yeah. So the goddess of chess had to send a message.
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Yeah. That's okay. Okay.
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So Gary, you should do something else. Time.
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Now for a question that you have heard before, but give me a chance.
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You've dominated the chess world for 20 years and even still got it.
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Is there a moment you said you always looked to create something new?
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Is there, is there games or moments where you're especially proud of in terms of your brilliance of a new creative move?
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You've talked about Mikhail Tall as somebody who was aggressive and creative chess player in your own game.
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Look, you mentioned Mikhail Tall. It's very aggressive, very sharp player, famous for his combinations and sacrifices,
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even called magician from Riga.
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So for his very unique style, but any, any world champion, you know, it's, yeah, was a creator.
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Some of them were so flamboyant and flash like tall.
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Some of them were no, just, you know, less discerned at the chess board like the Grand Petrosian,
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but every world champion, every top player brought something into the game of chess.
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And each contribution was priceless because it's not just about sacrifices.
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Of course, amateurs, they enjoy, you know, the brilliant games where pieces being sacrificed.
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It's all just, you know, it's an old piece of hanging and, and it's all of a sudden, you know, being material down,
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the rook down or just, you know, queen down, the, the, the weaker side delivers the final blow on just, you know, mating opponent's king.
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But there's other kinds of beauty.
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I mean, it's a slow positional maneuvering, you know, looking for weaknesses and just, and, and gradually strangling your opponent and eventually delivering sort of a positional masterpiece.
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Yeah. So I think I, I made more difference in the game of chess than I could, I could have imagined when I started playing.
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And the reason I thought it was time for me to leave is just, I mean, I knew that I was not, I was not no longer the position to bring, bring the same kind of contribution,
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the same kind of new knowledge into the game.
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So, and going back, I could immediately look at my games against Anatoly Karpov.
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It's not just I won the match in 1985 and became a world champion at age 22.
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But there were at least two games in that match.
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Of course, the last one game 24, that was the size of game of the match I won and became world champion.
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But also the way I won, it was, it was a very sharp game and I found a unique maneuver that was absolutely new and it became some sort of just a typical now.
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Though this, when the move was made, was made on the board and put on display, a lot of people thought it was ugly.
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And another game, game 16 in the match, where I just also managed to outplay Karpov completely with black pieces, just paralyzing his entire army in its own, its own camp.
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Technically or psychologically, or is that a mix of both in game 16?
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Yeah, I think it was a big blow to Karpov.
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I think it was a big psychological victory for a number of reasons.
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One, this core was equal at a time and the world champion by the rules could retain his title in case of a tie.
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So we still have, you know, before game 16, we have nine games to go.
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And also it was some sort of a bluff because neither me nor Karpov saw the refutation of this opening idea.
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And I think it says for Karpov, it was double blow because not that he lost the game, I should triple blow.
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He lost the game, it was a brilliant game and I played impeccably after, you know, just this opening bluff.
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And then, you know, they discovered that it was a bluff.
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So it's the, again, I didn't know, I was not bluffing.
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So that's why it happens very often, you know, some ideas could be refuted.
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And it's just, what I found out, and this is, again, going back to your, you know, spiritual theme is that you could spend a lot of time working.
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When I say you could, it's in the 80s, in the 90s, it doesn't happen these days because everybody has a computer.
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You could immediately see if it works or it doesn't work.
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Machine shows your refutation in a split of a second.
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But many of the analysis in the 80s or in the 90s, they were not perfect simply because we were humans
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and they just, you analyze the game, you look for some fresh ideas and then just it happens that there was something that you missed.
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Because the level of concentration at the chessboard is different from one that when you analyze the game, moving the pieces around.
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But somehow, if you spend a lot of time at the chessboard preparing, so in your studies, with your coaches, hours and hours and hours,
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and nothing of what you found could, you know, had materialized on the chessboard.
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Somehow, these hours helped, I don't know why, always helped you.
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It's as if, you know, the amount of work you did could be transformed into some sort of spiritual energy that helped you to come up with other great ideas during the board.
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Again, even if it was, there was no direct connection between your preparation and your victory in the game,
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there was always some sort of invisible connection between the amount of work you did, your dedication to actually to and your passion to discover new ideas
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and your ability during the game at the chessboard when the clock was ticking.
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We still had ticking clock, not digital clock at the time.
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So to come up with some some some brilliance and and I also can mention many games from the 90s.
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So it's the obviously all amateurs would pick up my game against Veselin Topolov in 1999 and Vykonzey again,
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because it was a Berlin game.
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The Black King traveled from from its own camp to into the into in the White's camp across the entire board.
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It doesn't happen often, trust me, as you know, in the games with professional players, top professional players.
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So that's why visually it was one of the most impressive victories.
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But I could bring to to our attention many other games that were not so impressive for for amateurs,
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not so not so beautiful.
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Just guess it's sacrifice, always beautiful sacrifices.
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And then and then eventually you have so very few resources left and you you you use them just to to to to crush your your opponent.
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Basically to you have to make the king because you have almost almost nothing nothing nothing left at your disposal.
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But I you know, I up to the very end get less and less but still up to the very end.
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I always had games with some sort of, you know, interesting ideas and and games that gave me great satisfaction.
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But I think it's what happened from 2005 up to these days was also a very very big accomplishment.
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Since, you know, I had to find myself to sort of relocate myself.
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Yeah, rechannel the creative energies.
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Exactly. And to to find something where I feel comfortable, even confident that my participation still makes the difference.
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Beautifully put, so let me ask perhaps a silly question, but sticking on chest for just a little longer.
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Where do you put Magnus Carlson, the current world champion in the list of all time greats?
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In terms of style, moments of brilliance, consistency.
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It's a tricky question.
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You know, the moment you start ranking.
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Yeah, well, you lose something.
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It's the I think it's it's it's not fair because it's the any new generation knows much more about the game than the previous one.
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So when people say, oh, Gary was the greatest, Fisher was the greatest, Magnus the greatest.
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It disregard the fact that the great place of the past, the last year, Capa Planca, Alocan.
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I mean, they knew so little about chess by today's standards.
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I mean, today, just any kid, you know, that spent a few years, you know, with his or her chess computer and knows much more about the games.
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Simply just because you have access to this information.
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And it has been discovered generation after generation.
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We added more and more knowledge to the game of chess.
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It's about the gap between the world champion and the rest of the field.
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So it's the now if you look at the gap, then probably Fisher, you know, could be on top, but very short period of time.
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Then you should also add a time factor.
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I was on top, not as big as but much longer.
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So so I know so unlike Fisher, I will succeed in beating next generation.
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Here's the question.
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Yeah, let's see if you still got the fire speaking to the next generation because you did succeed beating the next generation next.
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It's close.
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OK, and I'm short and and the sheer of crumbly because I'm already 12 years young.
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So that's a neck that's but still get I I competed with them.
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And I just beat most of them and I was still dominant when I left at age of 41.
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So back to Magnus Magnus, I mean, consistency is phenomenal.
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The reason Magnus is is on top and it seems unbeatable today.
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Magnus is a lethal combination of Fisher and Karpov, which is very it's very unusual because Fisher style is very dynamic.
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Just fighting to the last poem, just using every resource available.
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Karpov was very different.
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It's just yet an unparalleled ability to use the every piece with a maximum effect, just its minimal resources always produce maximum effect.
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So now imagine that you merge these two styles.
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So it's it's it's like, you know, it's squeezing every stone for drop of water.
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But but doing it, you know, just, you know, for 50, 60, 70, 80 moves, I mean, Magnus could go on as long as Fisher was always passion and energy.
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And at the same time being as meticulous and and and and deadly as Karpov by just, you know, using every little advantage.
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So and he has good, you know, very good health.
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It's important. I mean, physical conditions are, by the way, very important.
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So a lot of people don't recognize it.
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Their latest study shows that chess players burn thousands of calories during the game.
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So that puts him on the top of this field of the world champions.
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But again, it's it's the discussion that is I saw recently on Internet whether Gary Kasparov of his peak, let's say late 80s could be Magnus Carlson today.
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I mean, certainly irrelevant because Gary Kasparov in 1989.
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OK, it's played great chess, but still I knew very little about chess compared to Magnus Carlson 2019, who, by the way, learned from me as well.
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So that's why. Yeah.
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I'm extremely cautious in making any judgment that involves, you know, time gaps.
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You ask, you know, soccer fans.
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So who is your favorite, Pelle Maradona or Messi?
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Yeah. Yeah. Who's your favorite?
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Messi. Messi. Why?
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Because maybe Maradona maybe not because he younger, but that's simple.
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Your instinctive answer is correct because you saw you didn't say Maradona in action.
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I saw all of them in action.
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So that's why. But since, you know, when I was, you know, just following it, you know, just its Pelle and Maradona, they were just, you know, they were big stars.
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And it's Messi's already just I was gradually losing interest in other things.
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So I remember Pelle in 1970, the final match, Brazil Italy.
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So that's the first World Cup soccer I watched.
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00:21:05.800
So that's the and actually my answer when I just, when I just, you know, I, because I was asked this question as well.
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00:21:12.500
So I say that is just why it's impossible to make a choice.
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00:21:15.600
I would still probably go with Maradona for simple reason.
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00:21:18.400
The Brazilian team in 1970 could have won without Pelle.
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00:21:21.900
It was absolutely great.
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00:21:23.200
Still could have won maybe.
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00:21:24.600
But it is Argentinean team in 1986 without Maradona would not be unified.
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00:21:29.600
So this is and Messi, he still hasn't won the title.
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00:21:33.300
That's, that's could argue for that for an hour. But you could say if you ask Maradona, if you look in his eyes,
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00:21:39.900
especially let's say Gary Kasparov in 1989, he would have said, I was sure as hell would beat Magnus Carlson.
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00:21:48.000
Yeah, just simply because the confidence fire simply because simply because again, they saw me in action.
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00:21:54.000
So this again, it's, it's the age factor is important.
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00:21:56.800
Therefore, with the passion and energy and being equipped with all modern ideas, but again, then you make, you know,
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00:22:04.000
a very just important assumption that you could empower Gary Kasparov for 89 with all ideas that have accumulated over 30 years.
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00:22:11.500
That would not be Gary Kasparov.
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00:22:12.700
That would be someone else because again, I belong to 1989.
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00:22:16.200
I was way ahead of the field and I, you know, I beat Karpov several times in the World Championship matches
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00:22:23.100
and I crossed 2800, which by the way, if you look at the in just in rating, which is just it's even today.
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00:22:31.400
So this is this is the rating that I retire.
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00:22:33.600
So this is it's still, you know, it's just it's a it's a top two, two, three.
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00:22:37.000
So this is Karwan and Ding. It's about the same rating now.
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00:22:40.500
And I crossed 2800 in 1990. We just look at the inflation.
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00:22:44.900
When I crossed 2800 in 1990, there was only one player in 2700 category and not only Karpov.
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00:22:50.700
Now we had more than 50. So just when you see this.
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00:22:53.600
So if you add inflation, so I think my 2851, it could probably could be more valuable as Magnus 2882, which was his highest rating.
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00:23:04.200
But anyway, again, too many hypotheticals.
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00:23:07.100
You're lost to IBM D blue in 1997.
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00:23:10.900
In my eyes, there's one of the most seminal moments in the history.
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00:23:15.000
Again, I apologize for being romanticizing the notion, but in the history of our civilization
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00:23:20.500
because humans as the civilizations for centuries saw chess as, you know,
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00:23:27.200
the peak of what man can accomplish of intellectual mastery, right?
link |
00:23:31.700
And that moment when a machine could beat a human being was inspiring to just an entire
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00:23:40.200
anyone who cares about science, innovation, an entire generation of AI researchers.
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00:23:46.300
And yet, to you, that loss, at least if reading your face was seemed like a tragedy, extremely painful.
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00:23:53.600
Like you said, physically painful. Why? When you look back at your psychology of that loss,
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00:23:59.700
why was it so painful when you're not able to see the seminal nature of that moment?
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00:24:07.200
Or was that exactly why it was that painful?
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00:24:11.100
As I already said, losing was painful, physically painful.
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00:24:17.000
And the match I lost in 1997 was not the first match I lost to a machine.
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00:24:22.000
It was the first match I lost, period.
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00:24:23.700
Yeah, that's, yeah.
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00:24:27.000
Oh, wow.
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00:24:29.200
Oh, wow.
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00:24:30.400
Yeah, it's right.
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00:24:32.300
Yeah. That makes all the difference to me.
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00:24:35.900
Yes.
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00:24:36.500
The first time I lost, it's just now I lost and the reason I was so angry that I just, you know, I had suspicions
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00:24:46.200
that my loss was not just the result of my bad play.
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00:24:49.300
Yes.
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00:24:49.800
So though I played quite poorly, you know, just when you started looking at the games today,
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00:24:53.300
I made tons of mistakes.
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00:24:55.000
But, you know, I had all reasons to believe that, you know, there were other other factors that had nothing to do with the game of chess.
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00:25:01.800
And that's why I was angry.
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00:25:03.000
But look, it was 22 years ago, it's more than the bridge.
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00:25:07.300
We can analyze this match and this is with everything you said.
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00:25:10.800
I agree with probably one exception is that considering chess, you know, as the sort of as a pinnacle of intellectual activities,
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00:25:20.300
was our mistake because, you know, we just thought, oh, it's it's a game of the highest intellect.
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00:25:25.800
And it just, you know, you have to be so, you know, intelligent.
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00:25:28.700
And as you could see things that, you know, the ordinary mortals could not see, it's a game.
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00:25:37.400
And all machines had to do with this game is just to make fewer mistakes, not to solve the game because the game cannot be solved.
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00:25:45.600
I mean, according to what Shannon, the number of legal moves is 10 to the 46 power, too many zeros.
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00:25:51.100
So just for any computer to finish the job, you know, in next few billion years.
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00:25:58.600
But it doesn't have to.
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00:26:00.200
It's all about making fewer mistakes.
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00:26:02.700
And I think that's the this match, actually.
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00:26:04.900
And what's happened afterwards with other games, with with go, with shogi, with video games.
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00:26:12.600
It's a demonstration that it's the machines will always be humans in what I call closed systems.
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00:26:19.400
The moment you build a closed system, no matter how the system is called, chess, go, shogi, daughter.
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00:26:28.500
Machines will prevail simply because they will bring down number of mistakes.
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00:26:35.900
Machines don't have to solve it.
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00:26:37.600
They just have to the way they outplay us.
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00:26:40.800
It's not by just being more intelligent.
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00:26:43.300
It's just by by doing something else.
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00:26:46.100
But eventually it's just it's capitalizing on our mistakes.
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00:26:49.800
When you look at the chess machines ratings today in compare, compare this to Magnus Carlson is the same as comparing Ferrari to Usain Bolt.
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00:26:58.400
It's the gap is, I mean, by chess standards is insane.
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00:27:04.200
34, 3500 to 2800, 2850 on Magnus.
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00:27:08.400
It's like difference between Magnus and an ordinary player from an open international tournament.
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00:27:13.900
It's not because machine understanding is better than Magnus Carlson, but simply because it's steady.
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00:27:21.300
Machine has steady hand.
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00:27:23.300
And I think that is what we we we we have to learn from 1997 experience and from further encounters with computers and sort of the current state state of affairs was alpha zero.
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00:27:37.400
You are beating other machines.
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00:27:39.600
The idea that we can compete with computers in so called intellectual fields.
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00:27:45.200
It's it was wrong from the very beginning.
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00:27:49.000
It's just it's by the way, the 1997 match was not the first victory of machines over or grandmasters over grandmasters.
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00:27:57.400
Yeah.
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00:27:57.600
No, actually, it's I played against first decent chess computers from late from late eighties.
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00:28:04.100
So I played with the prototype of deep blue called Deep Thought in 1989 to rapid chess games in New York.
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00:28:10.500
I won handily to both games.
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00:28:13.100
We played against new chess engines like Fritz and other programs.
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00:28:18.800
And then it's the was Israeli program junior that appeared in 1985.
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00:28:23.300
Yeah.
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00:28:23.700
So there were there were several programs.
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00:28:25.500
I you know, I lost few games in Blitz.
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00:28:28.300
I lost one match against the computer chess in 1994 rapid chess.
link |
00:28:33.200
So I lost one game to the blue in 1996 match the manner the match I won.
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00:28:38.200
Some people, you know, tend to forget about it that I won the first match.
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00:28:41.400
Yes.
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00:28:42.300
But it's it's we we made a very important psychological mistake thinking that the reason we lost Blitz matches five five minutes games.
link |
00:28:52.400
The reason we lost some of the rapid chess matches, 25 minutes because we didn't have enough time.
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00:28:58.200
If you play a longer match, we will not make the same mistakes.
link |
00:29:02.100
Nonsense.
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00:29:03.000
So this yeah, we had more time, but we still make mistakes and machine also has more time and machines.
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00:29:08.400
Machine will always, you know, we always be stated and consistent compared to humans.
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00:29:15.400
Instabilities and inconsistencies.
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00:29:18.100
And today we are at the point where nobody talks about, you know, humans playing as machines that machines can offer handicap to to top players.
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00:29:27.600
Still, you know, will will will be favoring.
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00:29:31.300
I think we're just learning that it's it's it's no longer human versus machines.
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00:29:35.400
It's about human working with machines.
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00:29:37.900
That's what I recognized in 1998.
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00:29:41.800
Just after leaking my wounds and spending one year and just, you know, ruminating so the so what's happened in this match.
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00:29:48.400
And I knew that though we still could play against the machines.
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00:29:51.600
I had two more matches in 2003 playing both deep fritz and deep junior.
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00:29:56.700
Both matches ended as a tie.
link |
00:29:59.700
Though these machines were not weaker, at least, actually probably stronger and deep blue.
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00:30:05.000
And by the way, today, chess app on your mobile phone is probably stronger than the blue and deep blue.
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00:30:10.500
I'm not speaking about chess engines that are so much superior.
link |
00:30:14.000
And by the way, when you analyze games, we play against the blue 997 on your chess engine.
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00:30:19.300
They'll be laughing.
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00:30:20.600
So this is and it's also shows that's how chess changed because chess commentators.
link |
00:30:25.500
They look at some of our games like game four, game five, brilliant idea.
link |
00:30:29.400
Now you ask Stockfish, you ask Houdini, you ask Commodore all the leading chess engines.
link |
00:30:37.600
Within 30 seconds, they will show you how many mistakes both Gary and the blue made in the game that was
link |
00:30:46.300
trumpet it as the as a great chess match in 1997.
link |
00:30:50.900
Well, OK, so you've made an interesting if you can untangle that comment.
link |
00:30:56.400
So now in retrospect, it was a mistake to see chess as the peak of human intellect.
link |
00:31:03.500
Nevertheless, that was done for centuries.
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00:31:06.600
So in Europe, because, you know, you move to the far east, they will go there.
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00:31:13.600
They show games, games, some of the games like, you know, board games.
link |
00:31:20.000
Yes. Yeah, I agree.
link |
00:31:22.000
So if I push back a little bit, so now you say that, OK,
link |
00:31:26.700
but it was a mistake to see chess as the epitome.
link |
00:31:29.300
And now and then now there's other things maybe like language, that conversation,
link |
00:31:34.900
like some of the things that in your view is still way out of reach of computers, but inside humans.
link |
00:31:40.800
Do you think can you talk about what those things might be?
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00:31:44.300
And do you think just like chess that might fall soon with the same set of approaches?
link |
00:31:51.000
If you look at Alpha zero, the same kind of learning approaches as the machines grow in size.
link |
00:31:57.300
No, no, it's not about growing in size.
link |
00:31:59.300
It's about again, it's about understanding the difference between closed system and open ended system.
link |
00:32:05.200
So you think that key difference.
link |
00:32:06.900
So the board games are closed in terms of the rules that the actions, the state space.
link |
00:32:13.400
Everything is just constrained.
link |
00:32:15.900
You think once you open it, the machines are lost.
link |
00:32:19.800
Not lost, but again, the effectiveness is very different because machine does not understand the moment
link |
00:32:25.600
it's reaching territory of diminishing returns.
link |
00:32:28.500
It's the simply put it in a different way.
link |
00:32:32.500
Machine doesn't know how to ask right questions.
link |
00:32:35.900
It can ask questions, but it will never tell you which questions are relevant.
link |
00:32:39.400
So this is the it's like about the it's the it's a direction.
link |
00:32:42.300
So these it's I think it's in human relations.
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00:32:45.000
We have to consider so our role and people.
link |
00:32:48.300
Many people feel uncomfortable that this the territory that that belongs to us is is shrinking.
link |
00:32:55.700
I'm saying so what, you know, this is eventually will belong to the last few decimal points.
link |
00:33:00.700
But it's like having so very powerful gun.
link |
00:33:05.400
That's and and and all you can do there is slightly, you know, outer direction of the bullet.
link |
00:33:11.600
Maybe, you know, point one degree of this angle.
link |
00:33:16.100
But that means a mile away, 10 meters of the target.
link |
00:33:21.100
So so that's we have to recognize that is a certain unique human qualities that machines in a foreseeable future will not be able to reproduce.
link |
00:33:33.000
And and the effectiveness of this cooperation collaboration depends on our understanding what exactly we can bring into the game.
link |
00:33:40.400
So the greatest danger is when we try to interfere with machine super knowledge.
link |
00:33:45.600
So that's why I always say that sometimes you'd rather have by reading these pictures in radiology.
link |
00:33:51.600
You may probably prefer an experienced nurse than rather than having top professor because she will not try to interfere with machines understanding.
link |
00:34:02.200
So this it's very important to know that if machines knows how to do better things in 95%, 96% territory, we should not touch it because it's it's it's happened.
link |
00:34:11.200
It's like in chess recognize they they do it better. See where we can make the difference.
link |
00:34:17.200
You mentioned Alpha Zero Alpha Zero is it's it's actually a first step into what you may call AI because everything that's been called AI today is just it's it's it's one or another variation of what Claude Shannon characterized as a brute force is a type A machine.
link |
00:34:35.200
Whether it's the blue whether it's what's on it and all these this is the modern technologies that are being trumpeted as as AI.
link |
00:34:43.200
It's still brute force. It's the all they do it's they do optimization.
link |
00:34:48.200
It's this they are you know they they keep you know improving the way to process human generated data.
link |
00:34:56.200
Now, Alpha Zero is is the first step towards you know, machine produced knowledge, which is by the way, by the way, it's quite ironic that the first company that championed that was IBM.
link |
00:35:11.200
Oh, it's in backgammon. Interesting in backgammon.
link |
00:35:15.200
Yes, you just you should you should you should look at IBM is it's a neurogammon.
link |
00:35:19.200
It's the it's the scientist. He's still working at IBM. They had an early nineties. It says it's the it's in the program that played in all the Alpha Zero type.
link |
00:35:29.200
So just trying to come up with own strategies.
link |
00:35:31.200
But because of success of the blue, this project had been not abandoned, but just you know, it's it's it wasn't it was put on calls.
link |
00:35:39.200
And now we just you know, it's it's it's you know, it's every talks about about this the the machines generated knowledge. So as a revolutionary and it is.
link |
00:35:49.200
But there's still, you know, many open ended questions.
link |
00:35:53.200
Yes, Alpha Zero generates its own data.
link |
00:35:57.200
Many ideas that Alpha Zero generated chess were quite intriguing.
link |
00:36:02.200
So I I looked at these games with not just with interest, but with, you know, it's quite exciting to learn how machine could actually, you know, juggle all the pieces and just play positions with a broken material balance,
link |
00:36:17.200
sacrificing material always being ahead of other programs, you know, one or two moves ahead by by foreseeing the consequence, not over calculating, because machines, other machines were at least as powerful in calculating.
link |
00:36:30.200
But it's having this unique knowledge based on discovered patterns after playing 60 million games.
link |
00:36:37.200
Almost something that feels like intuition.
link |
00:36:39.200
Exactly. But there's one problem.
link |
00:36:41.200
Yeah.
link |
00:36:42.200
Now, the simple question, if if Alpha Zero faces superior point, let's say another powerful computer,
link |
00:36:52.200
accompanied by human who could help just to discover certain problems, because I already I look at many Alpha Zero games.
link |
00:36:58.200
I visited their lab, we spoke to them as Khasabis and his team.
link |
00:37:01.200
And I know there's certain witnesses there.
link |
00:37:03.200
Now, if these witness are exposed, the question is how many games will it take for Alpha Zero to correct it?
link |
00:37:09.200
The answer is hundreds of thousands.
link |
00:37:11.200
Even if it keeps losing, it it's just because the whole system is based.
link |
00:37:15.200
Yeah.
link |
00:37:16.200
So it's now imagine so this is you can have a human by just make a few tweaks.
link |
00:37:21.200
So humans are still more flexible.
link |
00:37:24.200
And and as long as we recognize what is what is our role where we can play sort of so the most valuable part in this collaboration.
link |
00:37:34.200
So it's it will help us to understand what are the next steps in human machine collaboration.
link |
00:37:40.200
Beautifully put.
link |
00:37:41.200
So let's talk about the thing that machines certainly don't know how to do yet, which is morality, machines and morality.
link |
00:37:47.200
It's another question that you know, just it's it's being asked all the time these days.
link |
00:37:51.200
And I think it's another phantom that is haunting a general public because it's just being fed with this, you know, illusions is that how can we avoid machines, you know, having bias, big prejudices.
link |
00:38:07.200
You cannot because it's like looking in the mirror and complaining about what you see.
link |
00:38:12.200
If you have certain bias in the society, machine will will just follow it.
link |
00:38:17.200
It's just it's it's you know, you look at the mirror, you don't like what you see there, you can, you know, you can break it, you can try to distort it.
link |
00:38:25.200
Or you can try to actually change something just by yourself by yourself.
link |
00:38:30.200
So it's very important to understand is that you cannot expect machines to improve the yields of our society.
link |
00:38:37.200
And moreover, machines will simply, you know, just, you know, amplify it.
link |
00:38:41.200
Yes.
link |
00:38:42.200
But the thing is, people are more comfortable with other people doing injustice with being biased.
link |
00:38:50.200
We're not comfortable with machines having the same kind of bias.
link |
00:38:54.200
So that's a that's an interesting standard that we place on machines with autonomous vehicles.
link |
00:39:00.200
They have to be much safer with automated systems.
link |
00:39:03.200
Of course, of course, they're much safer.
link |
00:39:05.200
Statistically, they're much safer than that.
link |
00:39:07.200
And of course, why would it? It's not of course, it's it's not given.
link |
00:39:13.200
Autonomous vehicles, you have to work really hard to make them safer.
link |
00:39:19.200
I think it just goes without saying is the outcome of the of this, I would call a competition with comparison is very clear.
link |
00:39:29.200
But the problem is not about being, you know, safer.
link |
00:39:32.200
It's the 40,000 people or so every year died in car accidents in the United States.
link |
00:39:38.200
And it's it's statistics.
link |
00:39:40.200
One accident with with autonomous vehicle and its front page of a newspaper.
link |
00:39:44.200
Yes. So it's again, it's both psychological.
link |
00:39:47.200
So it's while people, you know, kill each other in car accidents, because they make mistakes, they make more mistakes.
link |
00:39:52.200
For me, it's it's it's not a question.
link |
00:39:54.200
Of course, we make more mistakes because we're human.
link |
00:39:57.200
Yes, machines old.
link |
00:39:58.200
And by the way, no machine will ever reach 100% perfection.
link |
00:40:01.200
That's another that's another important fake story that that is being fed to the public.
link |
00:40:05.200
If machine doesn't reach 100% performance is not safe.
link |
00:40:08.200
No, all you can ask any computer, whether it's, you know, playing chess or or doing the stock market calculations or driving your autonomous vehicle.
link |
00:40:18.200
It's to make few mistakes.
link |
00:40:20.200
And yes, I know it's not, you know, it's not easy for us to accept because ah, if you know, if you have two humans, you know, colliding in their cars.
link |
00:40:29.200
Okay, it's like if one of one of these cars is autonomous vehicle.
link |
00:40:33.200
And by the way, even if it's humans fault, terrible, how could you allow a machine to to to run without a driver at the wheel?
link |
00:40:42.200
So, you know, let's linger that for a second, that double standard.
link |
00:40:46.200
The way you felt with your first loss against D blue, were you treating the machine differently than you would have a human?
link |
00:40:55.200
So what do you think about that difference between the way we see machines and humans?
link |
00:41:01.200
No, it's the at that time, you know, for me, it was a match.
link |
00:41:03.200
And that's why I was angry because I believe that the match was not, you know, fairly organized.
link |
00:41:08.200
So it's definitely they weren't fair advantages for IBM and I want to play their another match like rubber.
link |
00:41:16.200
So you're angered or displeasure was aimed more like at the humans behind IBM versus the actual pure algorithm.
link |
00:41:24.200
Absolutely. Look, I mean, I knew at the time.
link |
00:41:26.200
And by the way, I was objectively speaking, I was stronger at that time.
link |
00:41:30.200
So that's that probably added to my anger because I knew I could beat machine.
link |
00:41:33.200
Yeah.
link |
00:41:34.200
So this and that's the and as I lost and I knew I was not well prepared.
link |
00:41:37.200
So because they have to give them credit, they did some good work from 1996.
link |
00:41:42.200
And I but I still could beat the machine.
link |
00:41:44.200
So I made too many mistakes.
link |
00:41:46.200
Also, this is the whole is this publicity around the match.
link |
00:41:49.200
So I underestimated the effect, you know, just it's and being called the, you know, the brains last stand, you know, it's okay.
link |
00:41:57.200
No pressure.
link |
00:42:01.200
Okay. Well, let me ask.
link |
00:42:03.200
So I was born also in the Soviet Union.
link |
00:42:06.200
What lessons do you draw from the rise and fall of the Soviet Union in the 20th century when you just look at this nation that is now look pushing forward into what Russia is.
link |
00:42:18.200
If you look at the long arc of history of the 20th century, what do we take away?
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What do we take away from that?
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I think the lesson of history is clear.
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Undemocratic systems, totalitarian regimes, systems that are based on controlling their citizens and just every aspect of their life, not offering opportunities to for private initiative.
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Central planning systems, they doomed.
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They just, you know, they, they cannot be driving force for innovation.
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So they in history timeline.
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I mean, they could cause certain, you know, distortion of the concept of progress.
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They, by the way, they may call themselves progressive, but we know that is this, the damage that they caused to humanity is just it's yet to be measured.
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But at the end of the day, they fail.
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They fail and it's at the end of the Cold War was a great time of the free will.
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It's not that free world is perfect.
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It's very important to recognize its factors.
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I always like to mention, you know, one of my favorite books, The Lord of the Rings, that the there's no, there's no absolute good, but there is an absolute evil.
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Good, you know, comes in many forms, but we all, you know, it's being humans or being even, you know, humans from fairy tales or just some sort of mythical creatures.
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It's the, you can always find spots on the sound.
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So this is conducting war and just and fighting for justice.
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There are always things that, you know, can be easily criticized.
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And human history is the is a never ending quest for perfection.
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But we know that there's absolutely evil.
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We know it's for me, it's now clear.
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It's nobody argues about Hitler being absolutely evil, but I think it's very important to recognize Stalin was absolutely evil.
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Communism caused more damage than any other ideology in the 20th century.
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And unfortunately, while we all know that fascism was condemned, but there was no nerve for common communism.
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And that's why we could see, you know, still is the successors of Stalin are feeling far more comfortable.
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So you, you, as one of them, you highlight a few interesting connections actually between Stalin and Hitler.
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I mean, they're in terms of the adjusting or clarifying the history of World War Two, which is very interesting.
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Of course, we don't have time, so let me ask.
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You can ask, you know, I just I just recently delivered a speech in Toronto at eighties and roaster of Molotov ribbon compact.
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It's something that I believe, you know, just, you know, has must must be taught in the schools that the World War Two had been started by two dictators
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by signing these these criminal criminal treaty, collusion of two tyrants in August 1939 that led to the beginning of the World World War Two.
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And the fact is that eventually Stalin had no choice but to join allies because Hitler attacked him.
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So it just doesn't, you know, eliminate the fact that Stalin helped Hitler to start World War Two.
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And he was one of the beneficiaries at early at early stage by annexing part of Eastern Europe.
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And as a result of World War Two, he annex almost entire Eastern Europe.
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And for many Eastern European nations, the end of the World War Two was the beginning of communist occupation.
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So Putin, you've talked about as a man who stands between Russia and democracy, essentially today.
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You've been a strong opponent and critic of Putin.
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Let me ask again, how much does fear enter your mind and heart?
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So in 2007, there's this interesting comment from Oleg Kalugin, KGB general.
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He said that I do not talk details. People who knew them are all dead now because they were vocal.
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I'm quiet. There's only one man who's vocal and he may be in trouble.
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World chess champion Kasparov. He has been very outspoken in his attacks on Putin.
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And I believe he's probably next on the list.
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So clearly your life has been and perhaps continues to be in danger.
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How do you think about having the views you have, the ideas you have, being in opposition as you are in this kind of context when your life could be in danger?
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That's the reason I live in New York.
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So it was not my first choice, but I knew I had to live Russia at one point and among other places, New York is the safest.
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Is it safe? No.
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I mean, I know what happened, what is happening with many of Putin's enemies.
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But at the end of the day, I mean, what can I do?
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I could be very proactive by trying to change things I can influence.
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But here are our facts. I cannot stop doing what I've been doing for a long time.
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It's the right thing to do.
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I grew up with my family teaching me sort of the wisdom of Soviet dissidents, do what you must and so be.
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I could try to be cautious by not traveling to certain places where my security could be at risk.
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There are so many invitations to speak at different locations in the world and I have to say that many countries are just now, are not destinations that I can afford to travel.
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My mother still lives in Moscow and meet her a few times a year.
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She was devastated when I had to leave Russia because since my father died in 1971, so she was 33 and she dedicated her entire life to her only son.
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But she recognized in just a year or so since I left Russia that it was the only chance for me to continue my normal life.
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So just to be relatively safe and to do what she taught me to do to make the difference.
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Do you think you will ever return to Russia or let me ask a different way?
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Well, I'm sure.
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Maybe one sooner than many people think because I think Putin's regime is facing answering all the different difficulties.
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And again, I read enough historical books to know that dictatorships they end suddenly.
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It's just on Sunday dictator feels comfortable.
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He believes he's popular on Monday morning.
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He's bust.
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The good news and bad news.
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I mean, the bad news is that I don't know when and how Putin rule ends.
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The good news he also doesn't know.
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Okay, well put.
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Let me ask a question that seems to preoccupy the American mind from the perspective of Russia.
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One, did Russia interfere in the 2016 US election government sanction and future to will Russia interfere in the 2020 US election?
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And what does that interference look like?
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It's very odd.
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You know, we had such an intelligent conversation and you are ruining everything by asking such a stupid question.
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It's been going downhill the entire way.
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But it's insulting from my intellect.
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Okay.
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Of course they didn't interfere.
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Of course they did absolutely everything to elect Trump.
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I mean, they said it many times.
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He says, you know, I met enough KGB kernels in my life to tell you that, you know, just the way Putin looks at Trump.
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Yeah.
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This is the way looks.
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And I don't have to hear what he says, what Trump says.
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It just says, I don't need to go through congressional investigations.
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The way Putin looks at Trump is the way the KGB officers looked at the assets.
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It's just and following to 2020, of course, they will do absolutely everything to help Trump to survive.
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Because I think the damage that Trump's elections could cause to America and to the free world.
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It's just, it's beyond one's imagination.
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I think basically if Trump is reelected, he will ruin NATO because he's already heading in this direction.
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But now he's just, he's still limited by the reelection hurdles.
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If he's still in the office after November 2020, okay, January 2021.
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I don't want to think about it.
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My problem is not just Trump, because Trump is basically a symptom.
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But the problem is that I don't see it just, it's the in American political horizon, politicians who could take on Trump for, for all damage that he's doing for the free world.
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Not just things that just happened that went wrong in America.
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So there's the, it seems to me that the campaign political campaign on the Democratic side is, is fixed on certain important, but still secondary issues.
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Because when you have the foundation of the Republican jeopardy, you cannot talk about healthcare.
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I mean, I understand how important it is, but it's still secondary because the entire framework of American political life is at risk.
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And you have Vladimir Putin just, you know, just it's having virtually free hands by, by his, by attacking America and other free countries.
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And by the way, we have so much evidence about Russia interference in Brexit in elections in almost every European country.
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And thinking that they will be shy of attacking America in 2020.
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Now with, with Trump in the office, yeah, I think it's, yeah, it definitely diminishes the intellectual quality of our conversation.
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I do what I can. Last question, if you can go back, just look at the entirety of your life you accomplished more than most humans will ever do.
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If you can go back and relive a single moment in your life, what would that moment be?
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Ah, um, yeah, there are moments in my life when I think about what could be done differently, but.
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No, experience happiness, enjoy and pride, just, just to, just to touch once again.
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I know, I know, but it's the, it's the, it's look, I made many mistakes in my life.
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So I just, it's the, I know that at the end of the day, it's, I believe in the butterfly effect.
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So it's the, it's the, I knew moments where I could, now if I'm there at that point in 89 and 93, pick up a year, I could improve my actions by not doing this stupid thing.
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But then how do you know that I will have all other accomplishments?
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Yeah, I just, I'm, I'm afraid that, you know, we just have to just follow this, if you may call it wisdom or forest gum.
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You know, it's the life is this, you know, it's, it's, it's a box of, of, of, of chocolate and you don't know what's inside, but you have to go one by one.
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So it's the, I'm, I'm happy with who I am and where I am today.
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And I am very proud, not only was my chess accomplishments, but that I made this transition.
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And since I left chess, you know, I built my own reputation that had some influence on the game of chess, but not, it's not, you know, directly derived from, from, from the game.
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I'm grateful for my wife.
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So help me to build this life.
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We actually married in 2005.
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It wasn't my third marriage.
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That's why I said that made mistakes in my life.
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But, and by the way, I'm close with two kids from my previous marriages.
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So that's, that's the, I mean, I managed to sort of balance my life and, and here in, I live in New York.
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So we have two kids born here in New York.
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It's, it's new life and it's, you know, it's, it's busy.
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Sometimes I wish I could, you know, I could limit my engagement in many other things that are still, you know, taking time and energy.
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But life is exciting.
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And as long as I can feel that I have energy, I have strengths, I have passion to make the difference.
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I'm happy.
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I think that's a beautiful moment to end on.
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Gary's possible by sure.
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Thank you very much for talking to me.
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Thank you.
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Thank you.